Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

sivabala
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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby sivabala » 27 Aug 2009 01:12

It looks like the words of Viswakarma, all these years, stands vindicated.

Words from the field guy's mouth.

Pokhran-II-is indeed a fizzle-Scientist-TOI Link
Last edited by sivabala on 27 Aug 2009 06:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gerard » 27 Aug 2009 01:19

``Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT,'' Santhanam told TOI on Wednesday. He emphasised the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme.
According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line. ``He is not just saying that India should not sign the CTBT, which I believe is completely against India's interests, but also that the 1998 thermonuclear device test was inadequate.
Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.

``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby ramana » 27 Aug 2009 01:35

So US pressure is high to sign the CTBT. What next Dr Kalam weighing in? Also takes the thunder from boosters!

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gerard » 27 Aug 2009 01:40

None of his previous public statements have even hinted at this

Is pressure from the Obama regime on the CTBT mounting?

Why the nuclear deal is just not done
Dr Santhanam replied with an emphatic ‘no’ when he was asked whether India was compromising on its national security, whereas Varadarajan was not certain.Most of the viewers — 98 per cent of them — also agreed with Dr Santhanam that India was in no way going to compromise national security with this deal. Dr Santhanam said he thought it was going to be a win-win deal for India.

Indo-US nuclear treaty: A good deal
There is sound technical analysis to support the position that the plutonium generated in power reactors is quite unsuitable for building up a nuclear arsenal. It is very doubtful that strategic planners and the armed forces would accept an arsenal with weapons of unpredictable (call it statistical, if you wish) yield. And, it is also very doubtful whether `tactical' nuclear weapons with yields in the few kilotons range using reactor-grade plutonium need to find a place at all in the Indian arsenal. The Minimum Credible Deterrence doctrine declared by India in May 1998 does not need tactical weapons.

The Quantum Leap
Secondly, the asymmetry with respect to China stands largely removed and it is worth emphasising that deterrence is not just about numbers alone

India capable of making Neutron Bomb: Santhanam
`Though there are no immediate plans to produce the neutron weapon in view of various binding factors, ``sometime, somebody should tell us (the scientific community) we need it (neutron weapon) and we will make it,'' he said.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby ramana » 27 Aug 2009 01:45

Please look at IDSA site and try to find the seminar title. And at IPCS which is a US funded think tank or sounding board. Will do the same.

Also could be Arihant related.

IDSA events calender

Strange 8/28 there is a lecture. So this must be an earlier occassion.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 27 Aug 2009 01:51

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaShakti.html

* Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) Leads
o Anil Kakodkar, Director of BARC
o Satinder Kumar Sikka, Lead for Thermonuclear Weapon Development
o M.S. Ramakumar, Director of Nuclear Fuel and Automation Manufacturing Group;
Lead for nuclear component manufacture
o D.D. Sood, Director of Radiochemistry and Isotope Group;
Lead for nuclear material acquisition
o S.K. Gupta, Solid State Physics and Spectroscopy Group;
Device design and assessment
o G. Govindraj, Associate Director of Electronic and Instrumentation Group;
Lead for field instrumentation
* DRDO Leads
o K. Santhanam; lead for test site preparations
o Chairman of the Department of Atomic energy (DAE)

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby ramana » 27 Aug 2009 02:00

Yeah we know who his is and he does read this Forum.

So if you read between the lines there was a discussion at IDSA where both were there and K Santy agreed there was a need to proof the TN again. Then the reporter talks to K Santy now and gets the scoop. And BK confirms the statement and says all this was from an earlier IDSA seminar on CTBT.

So its all related to new pressure from US on CTBT and maybe need to proof the Arihant payload.

So was GOI aware of the seminar and its contents and its ramifications on the Nuke deal?

And it means that a tradeoff was done to release this info now.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby JwalaMukhi » 27 Aug 2009 04:06

Apologies if posted earlier.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news ... 938610.cms
His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.

``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby John Snow » 27 Aug 2009 04:30

sorry ramana you are being defensive your artical along with V sunder was based on what you wer given publicly and as such no reflection.

But now to spin that to avoid shityybitty no scientist of the caliber of santhanam would contradict.
We even trusted Arundhati Gose to go ahead and sign the deal with Uncle. Even our Bhishma Pitamah was going gaga for the deal.
The simple fact is India’s deterrence is only in utterance.

{Neti Beerakaya which has neither Neyee nor its a beerakay}

Neti means made of Ghee in telugu
Beerakaya is like Karela (bitter gourd, I dont recall the name of Beerakaya in Hindi, in tamil also its Beerakay)

So our deterence has neither Ghee nor its a gourd, Its just namesake

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby tripathi » 27 Aug 2009 04:36

JwalaMukhi wrote:Apologies if posted earlier.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news ... 938610.cms
His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.

Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.

``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.
hmmmmm.....so this was the real reason GOI twice developed cold feet in attacking pakistan even after extreme provocations of parliament attack in 2002 and 26/11.coz GOI knew all along that it doesn't have any answer to pak nukes in terms of workable nukes.They were hiding BARC and DRDO failure to develope a working nuke since 1974 by stating all test were success thereby keeping indian public in dark.and this is the only reason that u hear MMS singing that war is not an option there by telling gullible indian public the state secret in half truths which all these corrupt political govts. were hiding from public.In this sense i say MMS is a patriot by speaking out the truth coz he has not been corrupted by power.

India needs honest straightforward patriot leader like MMS.I wish that he be pm of india for next 2 term to take india ahead.then rahul can take his place.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby tripathi » 27 Aug 2009 04:39

JS,
Beerakaya in hindi is called torai or turai

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby John Snow » 27 Aug 2009 04:43

Ah forgot Hindi since Subzi mandis in US dont shout names of vegitables, but write in english, even then If they dont know the name they simply add Chinese and put some name.

Thanks all the same

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby John Snow » 27 Aug 2009 04:49

probably GOI must have thought let us drive the last nail in the BJP lead GOVT claim of POKII.

Anything DRDO touches needs finishing touches from foreign collaboration.

From now on only untested trust is reserved for ISRO. They tells us if it fails it fails.

Interrestingly our man mavericks and the gang of renagades starting to spin that NPA community has brainwashed successfully our scientists to seed doubts about yield of the thermo so many spinsters these days ehh? :mrgreen:

Long live the much maligned webmasters of the world, down with the mavericks who hate excel sheets or excellence.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby archan » 27 Aug 2009 05:05

Is this thread again going to be the next hottie after S-e-S have been extinguished and Jaswant got boring? :mrgreen:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gagan » 27 Aug 2009 05:16

Sanatanan wrote:
You are assuming that a full yield proof test is necessary to have confidence in the device.
It may be desirable, but is it necessary? Let me play devil's advocate for a bit...

If, as claimed, the material used for the secondary pusher/tamper - Pb/depleted U/LEU/HEU/Pu - determines the total yield of the weapon - e.g. from <50kt to >300kt - and the secondary works, then going to full yield requires just substitution of the material. There is no need to test this to full yield.


Gerard,

With genuine curiosity, I venture to ask this question as a lay person in the realm of explosive devices (of all types, not just nuclear):

Would, for example, the dimensions and, may be, other specification details, of the "tamper/pusher" be the same irrespective of whether it is made of Pb, Depleted U, LEU, HEU, or Pu? Are they interchangeable one-is-to-one?

If there could indeed be constructional differences arising from differences in their physical or mechanical or chemical or nuclear properties or manufacturing methods adopted - for example forging Vs casting - then there may be a case for an argument that the replacement design should be proven by test.


Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist
This news out in the open is as explosive as the nuclear bombs that were tested. If the media picks this story up and runs it as a major headline, there is going to be trouble ahead.
This also puts an egg on the face of the big three scientists, Chidambram, Kakodkar, and much as I hate to say this, President Kalam, since he was present on that stage when Mr Chidambram claimed that they had reduced the yield to protect the khetolai village. ABV's credibility is also on the line here.

There will have to be clarifications or a cover up or a retest series. I wonder which one.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby NRao » 27 Aug 2009 05:23

Gerard wrote:Is pressure from the Obama regime on the CTBT mounting?

India capable of making Neutron Bomb: Santhanam
`Though there are no immediate plans to produce the neutron weapon in view of various binding factors, ``sometime, somebody should tell us (the scientific community) we need it (neutron weapon) and we will make it,'' he said.



Bet it is.

Neutron is a give away. It was decided way ack when - IIRC when Billy was the king - that India would not go that route. I suspect this is a bargaining chip - Nuet or TN. Signing the CTBT has to have an associated cost for the US - this must be that.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gagan » 27 Aug 2009 05:25

With the Arihant in the water, I think the process has begun to provide it with the spearhead that it deserves.
This is going to get hot, watch this space.

NRao would you please elaborate on the Neutron bomb route, and why it is a bargaining chip?

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Prem » 27 Aug 2009 05:29

Guess,
They will test again and sign the 4 letter treaty as part of the bargain if this is what Uncle want. They are not gonna hand over victory to O without protecting their strategic Intrests.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Anabhaya » 27 Aug 2009 05:31

A nuclear test just before New Delhi was to announce a multi-billion dollar nuclear plant park contract and MRCA to US. That'll help us tide over the difficult first year. It's Japan and Australia that will make a lot of noise. Only Japan will hurt us.

A series of tests with full involvement of fauji log and then sign CTBT?

No mud-slinging on scientists - must have been a collective decision to keep quiet.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby tripathi » 27 Aug 2009 05:38

How about testing TN and neutron bomb desings with in a certain period conducting series till we achieve validation and after that very next week sign all treaties

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Prem Kumar » 27 Aug 2009 05:50

Tripathi: that's what they should have done even during Pok-2. But its possible that they didnt have very many designs back then - but do now and want to test (wishful thinking on my part). Its hard to say whether this is a calibrated leak or an honest scientist who just couldnt take any more of the national security compromise.

Anabhaya: agreed no mud-slinging on the scientists. Even Dr. Kalam probably thought that it is in India's best interest not to question the TN yield after Pok-2. But the place where national security was compromised was when these guys were claiming that they have enough data to do simulations. They could have said "the TN test was successful but we need more test data in order to do simulations" - but they didnt.

Kudos to Arun_S for his steadfast stance being validated!!

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby NRao » 27 Aug 2009 05:59

would you please elaborate on the Neutron bomb route, and why it is a bargaining chip?


The pressure to sign CTBT should include pressure NOT to test. And, IF the 98 test was a bust, then there will be pressure within India to test till perfect. (So, there is a great chance IF the US says OK to test under condition to sign CTT, India possibly test multiple times (collect data) under the guise that one is not enough.)

IF Obama will not agree to testing then India has no option but to produce a neutron bomb - which India has always claimed it can produce. Now what about testing this bomb ..............??? Dunno, what the stand is. Open issue.

However, there is an allergy for neutron bombs in the West. And, I SUSPECT it is this allergy that India is taking advantage of. The Indian argument seems to be - either way we will get a deterrence. So, the choice is yours: TN or neutron. Either is OK with us. CTBT is not an issue - we agree that everyone should sign CTBT and enforce ALL its components.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby NRao » 27 Aug 2009 06:02

On Japan, the current opposition is expected to come to power - after what some 50-60 years in the opposition?

They have stated that they will follow their current nuclear position, BUT will break away from the US on foreign policy, etc.

They also (seem) to want better relations with China and appear to be more India-opposed. What exactly this will all translate into is unknown to me, but that is what I have read so far.

Joker in the pack?

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby tripathi » 27 Aug 2009 06:02

its Like BARC just barks no bite DRDO turned out to be DODO (sorry for adopting deaf n dumb forum) and HAL ka haal beHAL :wink:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby arunsrinivasan » 27 Aug 2009 06:04

With Obama administration and having just signed the nuclear deal, the political implications of further testing could be quite severe. Wont this give lizard a stick to beat India with & proliferate more? What abt TSP using this as an excuse to wrest more concessions from Unkil etc.? We will have all these holier than thou countries e.g. Austria, New Zealand, going on a "I told you so" charade making life difficult for us. If we go back to technology sanctions, how will it impact our defence modernisation, space programs et al? I cant think of any economic impact... unless am missing something. I dont see any easy answers ...

I think we made a strategic blunder in not continuing with a testing program in the 70's, having tried to correct it with tests in 98, it looks like we repeated the blunder by not going far enough.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby bahdada » 27 Aug 2009 06:14

This can't be political. PM Rao was basically the thrust behind getting that test cycle going. I believe Vajpayee noted that himself. I just can't imagine the possibility that we might have missile/nuke gap with the Paki's let alone the Chinks.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby NRao » 27 Aug 2009 06:16

No use digging into the past.

Need to stick together and gut it out.

I just cannot see anyone actually making enough noise to blow the house down. If the house is still standing what difference does some noise make? Would be nice if there is no noise, but ...................

China holding a stick is dangerous ...................................... for everyone, not just India. Chicom WILL use it against others - no two ways about that. And, everyone knows that. And, everyone knows that India has no option but to stand up to China too.

But, I think the ball is in Obama's court.

And, ...................................................................................... ........................... neutron it is.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gagan » 27 Aug 2009 06:16

There is a problem wrt the Thermonuke design only.
There is also a need to test the various combinations of the FBF warheads that are designed.
No doubt India is a NWS, however only ONE deliverable nuke design is validated. The rest were all experiments in '98.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gagan » 27 Aug 2009 06:19

Has any one considered the possibility that China can go on and test using N Korea as a proxy.
This is the right time, when the F-18s are testing in Bangaluru, the nuclear reactors contract (which is larger than MRCA) about to be signed, and China is mobilizing in the NE.

All these are factors that have an interplay.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby arunsrinivasan » 27 Aug 2009 06:22

NRao wrote:China holding a stick is dangerous ...................................... for everyone, not just India. Chicom WILL use it against others - no two ways about that. And, everyone knows that. And, everyone knows that India has no option but to stand up to China too.


I'm concerned about the left wing / nuclear ayatollahs reaction, for them facts dont matter, only ideology, e.g. see how Australia's left wing govt behaves, it is ok to sell uranium to China the biggest nuclear proliferator but not to India. With the obama administration, the nuclear ayatollahs are back in power in US, how do we test without them causing trouble for us?

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby tejas » 27 Aug 2009 06:28

What use is a neutron bomb to India? And why would anyone in the US or elsewhere care that India had a neutron bomb rather than a TN weapon.?

To me the unforgivable crime committed here was to do one TN test, have it fail and then meekly declare victory and call it a day. The tests should have continued until a reliable light weight TN weapon was operational. Who the hell did ABV, Kalam, Kakodkar et al. think they were fooling?

Once India was under sanctions how much worse did they think it would get? Real men would have told the US where to get off and started building a nuclear power plant in Iran as a hint of what could happen in the future if Uncle didn't lay off. Trashing the MTCR should also been high on the list. Of course India has never had real men at its helm. Despite having an economy that's the fourth largest in the world, Indian leaders have always acted like they were in the company of Honduras and Guatemala in the international pecking order.

Do the jingoes here remember that in 1998 the UNSC admonished India (and Pukistan) with a resolution asking it to cap, rollback and eliminate its nuclear program? A resolution it was later revealed that was drafted by our Chinese blothers. This was the only time in 2000+ tests that the UNSC cared to comment on. Furthermore the SDRE Indian ambassador to the UN requested and was REFUSED the privelge of addressing the Security Council. If I were the Indian PM I would have immediately withdrawn from the UN and deemed its resolutions null and void when it came to India. Slick Willie and Ziang Zemin soon separately issued a communique ordering India to unilaterally disarm.

While we're buying Super Hags from the US we should ask them if they have any left over B-29's in their junkyards. We can use them to drop our 2000 kg 6 KT fission bombs assuming they work after one (maybe two) tests. Excuse me, I would like to type more but I need to go to the bathroom to vomit.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby csharma » 27 Aug 2009 06:34

Since the report indicates that the fusion device worked but the yield was lower than the target, is it not possible for the scientists to fix the flaws in the design with the data from the test.

I know that the final verification would be a real test but what kind of confidence can be had with computer sims with the data already obtained from the test.

I am not sure how the reliable the following site is, nevertheless.

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaShakti.html

The yield of the thermonuclear device was apparently 22-25 kt. This is at or above the expected yield range of a thermonuclear primary, so it appears that the fusion boosted device used for the primary was successful. The plausible yield for the secondary stage is from 10 to 15 kt, well below the 30 kt or so apparently expected by India.


So it appears to be a question of tweaking the yield.
Last edited by csharma on 27 Aug 2009 06:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby shiv » 27 Aug 2009 06:53

Gagan wrote:Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist
This news out in the open is as explosive as the nuclear bombs that were tested. If the media picks this story up and runs it as a major headline, there is going to be trouble ahead.
This also puts an egg on the face of the big three scientists, Chidambram, Kakodkar, and much as I hate to say this, President Kalam, since he was present on that stage when Mr Chidambram claimed that they had reduced the yield to protect the khetolai village. ABV's credibility is also on the line here.

There will have to be clarifications or a cover up or a retest series. I wonder which one.


Santanam's words are carefully chosen if the report is right.

There is something deeper afoot. May not be a test - but something else. This time public opinion of the billion people and their echandeee is being used.

Interesting..

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gerard » 27 Aug 2009 06:54

Colonel Srinivas’ recalls N-day, Pokhran II tests
And who better than a former RAW man to pull it off? Santhanam had been involved with the nuclear programme from the time he shifted to DRDO from the spy agency. And from then on, he was the one man absolutely in the know of what was happening.
...
Now, he asks, is it true the government wants to underplay this milestone, 10 years of Pokhran II? “A nation can ill afford to ignore its heroes and their heroic deeds.” He looks fleetingly somber. And then the smile returns.

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby shiv » 27 Aug 2009 07:02

One of the more ROTFL aspects of this saga may be yet to come. If you have 400 million echandee deficient Indians agitating for tests - the NPAs will have to go into panic mode and start revising yield estimates to do some ego massaging.

This looks like it's going to be fun..

The only question is - why weren't we given this fun earlier. We would have had less pruning to do on the BR HDD and more massa-ging on the ehandee front

:lol:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby negi » 27 Aug 2009 07:24

tejas wrote:To me the unforgivable crime committed here was to do one TN test, have it fail and then meekly declare victory and call it a day. The tests should have continued until a reliable light weight TN weapon was operational. Who the hell did ABV, Kalam, Kakodkar et al. think they were fooling?

Is this some Sivakasi raakkit being phyrred from kingfisher beer bottle that you get to fire 10 rakkits in a single night ? :mrgreen:

First and foremost thing the TN device was tested and not a weapon; every new device does have to be tested for the first time isn't it ?

Secondly if the the yield indeed is below the designed specs then it is imperative that the team involved needs time ,resources ,political backing and more importantly suitable opportunity to re-test and validate the changes.

Talk of self moratorium on tests and world disarmament speech are the best ways of buying time and exercising dammage control. :)

And why does the learned jirga trust the GOI on self moratorium ...hain ? isn't this the same GOI which we all bad mouth and smirk at on every given opportunity ?

What jingos on board should appreciate is after POK-I there was a Govt at center assertive enough and a team of scientists capable enough to carry out a string of tests , yield of the TN device notwithstanding.Arrey in past 60 years of independence how many times has GOI been proactive enough and been able to go against the world opinion and been able to deliver the goods ?

All in all constructive criticism is fine but we should give the credit where it is due.

Btw now that folks are indulging into hair splitting semantics I for one would want to know how does one define or qualify a test to be successful ? i.e. for a bomb designed to deliver an explosive force of 'X'megatonnes of TNT what is the actual test figure which would qualify it as a successful test and not a fizzle ...hain ? :twisted:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Hari Seldon » 27 Aug 2009 07:53

Cat's well out of the bag - front page news from TOI online and offline as well. Apols if posted previously.

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

"Yield of the thermonuclear explosions was more a fizzle than a big bang," said K Santhanam, senior scientist and DRDO representative at 1998 Pokhran tests.


BTW, is this K santhanam anyway related to our own Santanan?
/Just Kiddin'. Not likely related, I know.

TOI offline headline says "Scientist defies Govt line: Says Pokhran II fizzled".

Interesting that this news comes out now, 11 yrs after the fact. CTBT pressure rising is 1 obvious line. Establishment pre-emption/response to possible wavering in the netaship, perhaps?

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Re: Indian Missile Technology Discussion

Postby Singha » 27 Aug 2009 07:59

extra ! extra ! - front page in TOI today. decisive airland victory for Arun saar. K.Santhanam admits that S2 yield was far lower than expected and was a "fizzle" :mrgreen: and he says India should not rush into signing CTBT

the fact that he says this now is 101% proof that under US tutelage this congress govt was secretly working to sign up for the CTBT asap :evil: :evil:

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Re: India Nuclear News And Discussion

Postby Gagan » 27 Aug 2009 08:01

OK, several things.

All junta agitating on why this was not refined need to go back and read what Arun_S's prescription for mitigating what is already a fiasco. I believe that Arun_S is articulating for India's scientific community on what is the best course forward.
India needs two parallel teams dedicated specifically to weapons design and act as peers to review each others work. This has to be in addition to a Laser Ignition Facility along with much more powerful computing power in the hands of the design team in order to make the deterrent credible.

This also means that ABV and the BJP tested partly out of political compulsions and stopped the tests out of political compulsions not because scientific targets were acheived. This is a serious disservice to the nation that they have done, by not ordering the re-test when the scientists said that they were ready.

This is the reason why we have the NPA's saying that India tested for reasons of Pride rather than as a cool headed well thought out plan for a deterrence against China.

Partly the scientific community is again acting in India's interest by saying it out loud when India's interests are threatened. Perhaps there are possibilities that MMS is heading into another deeper CRE exercise? Perhaps this is at the behest of MMS and co to raise the issue in public, so that public pressure leaves the government with no option but to test. Perhaps the Chinese are really planning an attack, and this is an exercise to deter them.

What ever the reasons, I hope that this round of tests will not be a symbolic one, and will go on and on until the deterrence is credible.

Singha
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Re: Indian Missile Technology Discussion

Postby Singha » 27 Aug 2009 08:02

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news ... 938610.cms

Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist
Sachin Parashar , TNN 27 August 2009, 12:38am IST

NEW DELHI: The 1998 Pokhran II nuclear tests might have been far from the success they have been claimed to be. The yield of the thermonuclear
explosions was actually much below expectations and the tests were perhaps more a fizzle rather than a big bang
.

The controversy over the yield of the tests, previously questioned by foreign agencies, has been given a fresh lease of life with K Santhanam, senior scientist and DRDO representative at Pokhran II, admitting for the first time that the only thermonuclear device tested was a "fizzle". In nuclear parlance, a test is described as a fizzle when it fails to meet the desired yield.

Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparations, told TOI on Monday that the yield for the thermonuclear test, or hydrogen bomb in popular usage, was much lower than what was claimed. Santhanam, who was DRDO's chief advisor, could well have opened up the debate on whether or not India should sign CTBT as claims that India has all the data required and can manage with simulations is bound to be called into question.

``Based upon the seismic measurements and expert opinion from world over, it is clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed. I think it is well documented and that is why I assert that India should not rush into signing the CTBT,'' Santhanam told TOI on Wednesday.

He emphasised the need for India to conduct more tests to improve its nuclear weapon programme. :rotfl:

The test was said to have yielded 45 kilotons (KT) but was challenged by western experts who said it was not more than 20 KT.

The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is important as during the heated debate on the India-

US nuclear deal, it was strenuously argued by the government's top scientists that no more tests were required for the weapons programme. It was said the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing would not really matter as further tests were not required.

According to security expert Bharat Karnad, Santhanam's admission is remarkable because this is the first time a nuclear scientist and one closely associated with the 1998 tests has disavowed the government line. ``He is not just saying that India should not sign the CTBT, which I believe is completely against India's interests, but also that the 1998 thermonuclear device test was inadequate.

His saying this means that the government has to do something. Either you don't have a thermonuclear deterrent or prove that you have it, if you claim to have it,'' said Karnad.


Sources said that Santhanam had admitted that the test was a fizzle during a discussion on CTBT organised by IDSA. Karnad also participated in the seminar. He told TOI that no country has succeeded in achieving targets with only its first test of a thermonuclear device.


``Two things are clear; that India should not sign CTBT and that it needs more thermonuclear device tests,'' said Santhanam.

The yield of the thermonuclear device test in 1998 has led to much debate and while western experts have stated that it was not as claimed, BARC has maintained that it stands by its assessment. Indian scientists had claimed after the test that the thermonuclear device gave a total yield of 45 KT, 15 KT from the fission trigger and 30 KT from the fusion process and that the theoretical yield of the device (200 KT) was reduced to 45 KT in order to minimise seismic damage to villages near the test range.

British experts, however, later challenged the claims saying that the actual combined yield for the fission device and thermonuclear bomb was not more than 20 KT.

Key Pokharan scientist R Chidambaram had described these reports as incorrect. He has also argued that computer simulations would be enough in future design.


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