Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby nachiket » 28 Aug 2009 18:13

There have been questions asked about why KS kept mum for 10 years if he knew all along that the tests were a fizzle.
Well I think his timing of the revelation is perfect.
When the original test fizzled, the scientists would have required time to find and rectify the faults in the design before testing again. There was no point in publicly declaring to the whole world that India did not have a working TN design at that point in time.
The government on its part declared a moratorium on tests just to keep up the illusion (and thereby IMHO the deterrent) that all tests were successful.
Now, the original plan might have been to just withdraw the moratorium when the new design was ready and test again.
But that never happened, and with the new-clear deal and Indo-US bonhomie and the great peaceful leader in charge the chances of that voluntary moratorium ever being lifted started dropping drastically. Obama's agenda was the last straw. KS really didnt have a choice but to tell the truth. Otherwise, the GOI would probably never give the go-ahead for testing again. (Not that it will now, but atleast they will be under pressure)

This has nothing to do with the CTBT, I think since I dont think even MMS would sign something like that. But the voluntary moratorium has to go, and KS might have just given it the first push. Hats off to him.

Chidambaram can't tell the world that he lied and neither can Kalam. SO they will always maintain their position (even if inshallah we test again in the future).

Just my two paise ofcourse.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Austin » 28 Aug 2009 18:17

harbans wrote:
* Pokhran-II achieved 100 per cent desired results: Kakodkar


STAFF WRITER 17:6 HRS IST

Indore, Aug 28 (PTI) Dismissing a top nuclear scientist's contention that Pokharan II was not a complete success, Atomic Energy Commission chief Anil Kakodkar today said the tests in 1998 achieved "100 per cent desired results".

Speaking at a function organised by the Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology here, Kakodkar said, "Pokhran II tests were a complete success and they achieved 100 per cent desired results."



But was any one expecting AK to say anything else beyond the 100 % success claims ?

Will RC say any thing beyond 100 % success ?

These people are part of GOI and will say what the GOI want them to say and hear , their promotions ard extension and the power that flows from it depends on GOI.

I was expecting Kalam to stand up for Santy , since he was out of system and had credibility , but BM interview which said , he asked Kalam and Kalam said it worked , means Kalam has no option but to say its 100 % sucess.

Why would Kalam put his years of work , credibility and post retirement at stake ? A no or fizzle from Kalam will mean the entire estb credibility goes for a toss with no face saver.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RajeshA » 28 Aug 2009 18:25

Dmurphy wrote:Infact a resolution to sign the CTBT is a good firefighting solution to the hulla balloo that will be raised after the tests are actually conducted. JMT.

That will be the wrong way to go.

If somebody sets a fire, the chance that he will be punished is far greater if he promises to behave and never set a fire again. On the other hand, if he threatens to set more fires if somebody tries to punish him, then he will be listened to and nobody would dare contemplate any punishment.

India should simply test in 2010, and say the next series of testing would be in early 2011. Then you conduct the tests in early 2011 and say we are still discussing when to conduct the next series.

India will see that there will be no sanctions in this case. The more determined you look, the less are the dangers of sanctions. Sanctions are used to scare those in a country, who are most vulnerable - those in the export business, those in finance, and in smaller countries, the poor people. If India shows that she is determined, the others would know, that sanctions will not change anything, but only make the India more aggressive.

If threatened, be aggressive.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Dmurphy » 28 Aug 2009 18:39

^^
With all due respect sir, is machoism all that matters here? How about being a little more resilient, do what we need to do and shut up. Why play to an audience? Our target should be to achieve whatever wasn't the last time around and convince the over ambitious neighbours and the world that our nuke capabilities have enough teeth. Period.

If you go on to see a little deeper, the lateness of this admission proves that India was always following the resilient path. Its only because of the supposed clandestine, overzealous GOI's intention of signing the CTBT made K. Sanatham come out with this revelation.

JMT
RajeshA wrote:On the other hand, if he threatens to set more fires if somebody tries to punish him, then he will be listened
What listening to do we need, sir? You're not suggesting that we 'black mail' the world into submitting to our demands? And what are those demands??

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RajeshA » 28 Aug 2009 18:52

Dmurphy wrote:You're not suggesting that we 'black mail' the world into submitting to our demands? And what are those demands??

  • No sanctions.
  • No treating of India like some upstart.
  • No ignoring like Obama has been doing.
  • No pressure on 4-letter Treaties.
  • No crowning of PRC as the Asian Emperor.

The point is we should not act apologetic for our nuclear testing. We should not be ashamed of it.

The dynamic should not be - America threatens sanctions. India does not test.
The dynamic should rather be - India threatens more tests. America does not sanction.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby yossarian » 28 Aug 2009 19:07

RajeshA wrote:
Dmurphy wrote:You're not suggesting that we 'black mail' the world into submitting to our demands? And what are those demands??

  • No sanctions.
  • No treating of India like some upstart.
  • No ignoring like Obama has been doing.
  • No pressure on 4-letter Treaties.
  • No crowning of PRC as the Asian Emperor.

The point is we should not act apologetic for our nuclear testing. We should not be ashamed of it.

The dynamic should not be - America threatens sanctions. India does not test.
The dynamic should rather be - India threatens more tests. America does not sanction.


The dynamic you are suggesting is what Noko uses and it is not the dynamic of a mature democracy.

We choose TO/NOT TO test should be based on supreme national interests as determined by the strategic climate independent of the threat of US Sanctions.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Dmurphy » 28 Aug 2009 19:07

RajeshA wrote:The dynamic should not be - America threatens sanctions. India does not test.
The dynamic should rather be - India threatens more tests. America does not sanction.
We could be drawn into a long, bloody game of "who blinks first". And what if they call our bluff? Suppose we keep 'threatening' more tests but Ombaba goes ahead anyway and slaps hard hitting sanctions and keeps mounting pressure to a point where India can no longer take it. The GOI will finally decide to climb down the ladder under fast deteriorating conditions back home, our defence deals will be kept hanging in the air all that while, China will have surged even farther ahead.

And this is by no means 'imagination going wild' - it could very well be the price for illadvised daredevilry !

Added later: Fully agree with Yossarian. Need not, want not!

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby yossarian » 28 Aug 2009 19:24

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_first_use

1) Contradiction: Suggests China has NFU policy as of 2008, but then quotes "backpedaled" in 2005.
2) Both India and China follow NFU and TN is essential for (only)second strike capability, doesnt it follow that we can wait (do I dare say comfortably) for TN ("fully tested capability", courtesy KS remarks), since under the current strategic climate fission bums are mighty sufficient for second strike against the pukes?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Dmurphy » 28 Aug 2009 19:32

^^^ Is China really that trustworthy when it comes to NFU? Can it not 'back pedal' one moment and launch a few Dongs on us the next? That way, they don't even break any promise.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RajeshA » 28 Aug 2009 19:37

Dmurphy wrote:We could be drawn into a long, bloody game of "who blinks first". And what if they call our bluff? Suppose we keep 'threatening' more tests but Ombaba goes ahead anyway and slaps hard hitting sanctions and keeps mounting pressure to a point where India can no longer take it. The GOI will finally decide to climb down the ladder under fast deteriorating conditions back home, our defence deals will be kept hanging in the air all that while, China will have surged even farther ahead.


And what are those sanctions supposed to achieve?

If India's deterrent is not in place, PRC would feel emboldened to attack India, and then India's Stock Markets will really tank. Besides any sanctions that America places, would be in the area of nuclear cooperation, and not in trade. India does not threaten US interests like NoKo or Iran.

RajeshA wrote:The dynamic should not be - America threatens sanctions. India does not test.
The dynamic should rather be - India threatens more tests. America does not sanction.

The first is the language of dominance. The second is the language of trade. Everybody understands the language of trade. America defers placing sanctions, India stops testing for the time being.

Dmurphy wrote:And this is by no means 'imagination going wild' - it could very well be the price for ill-advised daredevilry!
The only ill-advised daredevilry in this context is, India not having a credible nuclear deterrent viz-a-viz China.

No country has established a credible nuclear deterrent with just one series of nuclear tests. That deterrent is a must. So as far as testing is concerned and its estimating how much of it is needed, we need only look at the testing record of the N5.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Javee » 28 Aug 2009 19:43

WASHINGTON: US nuclear pundits feel the Indian establishment -- political, scientific, or both in concert – may be lining up to conduct more nuclear tests to validate and improve the country’s arsenal before the Obama administration shuts the door on nuclear explosions.

''You bet he wants to test again,'' said Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Washington DC-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, when asked about the remarks from a key Indian nuclear scientist suggesting India’s thermonuclear test was not up to mark. ''Imagine you are a nuclear weapons designer who has corrected the mistakes and ironed out the wrinkles. You would be crazy not to want to test again.''

''You have to look at the DNA of a weapons designer. They always want to make the weapons smaller, lighter, more powerful,'' Sokolski added. ''If you blindfold them, tie their hands and leave them in the middle of a forest, they will still make their way to a test site.''

While Sokolski addressed the Indian motivations largely from the technology validation standpoint, Washington has long believed that geo-political objectives rather than scientific or technical metrics drives New Delhi’s nuclear weapons quest. The argument has gotten another boost following the remarks by a key Indian scientist, K.Santhanam, questioning the potency of India’s thermonuclear bomb.

While ''We told you so,'' was pretty much the reaction in the US scientific and strategic community on the renewed controversy over the yield of the thermo-nuclear device in Shakti series of nuclear test arising from remarks by Santhanam, there is lingering suspicion here that the disclosure in politically driven. It’s rare for Indian scientists to break ranks on a sensitive national security issue.

Why would Santhanam go public, with such deliberation, on something that was commonly discussed and widely acknowledged in scientific circles, a decade after the questions first surfaced?

The answer, according to some nuclear pundits mulling on the issue on blogs: To ward off growing American pressure on India to sign various nuclear containment treaties and perhaps enable India to conduct one last series of tests to validate and improve its nuclear arsenal.


In scores of research papers and studies in the immediate weeks and months of the 1998 nuclear tests in Pokhran, US scientists repeatedly questioned the reported yield of the thermo-nuclear device, saying it was well below India’s claim of 43-45 kilotons. In fact, some scientists, notably Terry Wallace, then with the University of Arizona and now attached to the Los Alamos National Laboratory, put the combined yield of the three May 11 tests at as low as 10 to 15 kilotons.

Two other tests on May 13 involved sub-kiloton devices for tactical weapons, which US scientists doubted even took place. Even the six nuclear tests claimed by Pakistan were treated with derision, with US scientists saying only two of them involved nuclear devices.

''This is quite clearly a case where governments tested for a political reason rather than scientific reasons, so we have to be suspicious of what they say,'' Wallace, the country’s top nuclear seismology expert, had said about the reported yields.

On Thursday, suspicion lingered in strategic circles that even Santhanam’s ''admission'' was cloaked in politics, aimed primarily at warding off US pressure on New Delhi to sign CTBT, the long-sought treaty to ban nuclear tests, and making ground for a further series of tests. There is renewed energy in Washington under the Democratic dispensation to push forward with such nuclear containment treaties after the previous Bush administration put them on the backburner.

Some US nuclear gurus also believe any break-out test at this point will be detrimental to India, even if it is aimed at validating its thermo-nuclear device, or the so-called Hydrogen Bomb.

"An Indian test would be very toxic to cooperation it has just gained under the nuclear deal. It’s hard to see what India would gain," said Gary Milholin Director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

Ensuring a reliable thermonuclear bomb? Milholin scoffed at the idea. "There are people who say American nuclear bombs won’t work because we have not tested for so long," he laughed. "I don’t think anyone would want to test that assumption."

Similarly, he said, it would be risky for any country to count on India’s thermonuclear weapon to have a low yield.

"There are now ways other than testing to increase confidence," Milholin added. "And I think India has enough computing power to do that."
-From TOI

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Tanaji » 28 Aug 2009 20:17

I think this is a conspiracy of Santhanam and some BRF admins and senior members who got him to say this. That way, they get to increase their post count without fear of it being reduced since this thread will be archived.

BRF admins are very Chanakian onleee.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby kasthuri » 28 Aug 2009 20:19

Mod: Please delete it if this has been already posted. Thanks.

BBC Link: Call for more India nuclear tests

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ldev » 28 Aug 2009 20:34

Interesting interview on this subject with Dr Baldev Raj of ISGAR. Have to accomodate the reporting language somewhat. The reporter is clearly not comfortable in English.

Conspiracy against India on nuclear potency - Baldev Raj


New Delhi, India: August 29, 2009 – Mohan Balaji –

Dr. Raj Baldev, you are a famous Cosmo Theorist, lead head of the Scientific Advance Research of Universe & Life (SAROUL) & Head of God Believer, World Peace Mission - you were kind enough to give me an interview yesterday in the larger international interest, I am obliged, would you again oblige the world to give your counter comments whether India would go for fresh tests to improve its technology as the US Scientists presume?

Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist: Mr. Bala, you have rightly pointed out, the US think tanks feel that India may go for fresh tests to improve their nuclear ability and this issue has been raised intentionally to validate and improve the country’s arsenal before Obama administration shuts the door on nuclear explosion. But it is a wrong impression; India has no need of going for any fresh tests, since it has already attained the absolute perfection on its Nuke tests and arsenals in all respects.

Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist, elaborating the subject said, “The program of explosion was of a specific design and level, its technical information with them was of a better DNA technology, which was restricted only to scientists of great confidence as thought fit at that time for specific security reasons, and since Mr. K.Santhanam probably did not belong to the inner team of scientists, he, therefore, lacked the correct information of the desired target which the Indian scientists wanted to achieve, and that in fact they got it.

“There is absolutely no doubt about India’s ability and capability of testing the weapon and its potency of thermonuclear bomb was of the level that wanted, there was no discrepancy in the test whatsoever, the remarks by Mr. Santhanam carries no weight, “ Dr. Raj Baldev said.


Dr. Raj Baldev said, “Why Mr.Santhanam has been silent for many years, why he disclosed the level of explosion now? Why he came up in public with an explosion of publicity on such a sensitive national issue which was commonly discussed and widely acknowledged in scientific circles, a decade after the questions first came up?

Dr. Raj Baldev further said, “If we go back to this test, there are dozens of papers with many questions; even US scientists repeatedly questioned the reported yield of the thermo-nuclear device, saying it was well below India’s claim of 43-45 kilotons. In fact, some scientists,like Terry Wallace, once with the University of Arizona and now attached to the Los Alamos National Laboratory, had also put the combined yield of the three May 11 tests at as low as 10 to 15 kilotons.

Dr. Raj Baldev said, “On this subject, two top secret meetings of Indian and US scientists were most probably held in Washington in camera with utmost secrecy to explain to the US Scientists why the yield of the thermo-nuclear device was intentionally kept below, the Indian scientists explained that it could comfortably be as low as 10 to 15 kilotons, still there could be no discrepancy in the device, they proved it to them and the US authorities were convinced. Even the USSR was convinced of the latest technology which India had.

”If we go back on the two other tests on May 13 involved sub-kiloton devices for tactical weapons, US scientists doubted whether they took place at all. Even the six nuclear tests claimed by Pakistan were treated with doubt; of which they accepted only two to have nuclear devices.

“In short, it would be unwise for any country to doubt India’s capability and potencies of thermonuclear weapon in terms of low yield, since India has another advanced technology, which perhaps other countries don’t have and that has made India stronger than many other countries in thermonuclear weapons than ever before.

”For security reasons, it shall not be proper to get into the details of the secret program which ran perfectly well with the most sophisticated advanced technology,which India possesses. This is just a drama played to force the Indian scientists and the govt. to commit some mistake or to come out with the top secret information of their advancement in thermonuclear weapons, which they have been so far secretly and successfully maintaining,” Dr. Raj Baldev said.

“Most of the earlier models were tested in the lab and new labs were established of which even Mr. Sanathanam was probably not aware of where they were set up to know the real results; their modifications were so complicated which India adopted and those were far better than other countries. This aspect was to be kept top secret and which the Govt. has exemplary maintained in spite of sharp differences of leaders of BJP and Congress,” Dr. Raj Baldev said.


Dr. Raj Baldev further told that it is, in fact, a conspiracy against India to let it down or to inculcate a fabricated doubt in the minds of the present scientists as regards the perfection of their atomic weapons and their future use. Indian scientists can’t be so foolish to keep the defective arsenals with them! It is a great plot hatched against India to get some information in their reaction to Santhanam’s assertion.

“Even if for a moment we presume that observation of Santhanam was correct, the mistake in the design if at all it is there can be rectified, tested in the lab. No question of re-testing the weapon. I agree with Mr.Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Washington DC-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, ''Imagine you are a nuclear weapons designer who has corrected the mistakes and ironed out the wrinkles. You would be crazy not to want to test again,'' Dr. Raj Baldev said.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby pankajs » 28 Aug 2009 20:39

One of the original sceptics
Santhanam was worried about India signing the CTBT
Scientist K Santhanam's statement terming the nuclear tests held under the aegis of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government at Pokhran, Rajasthan, in May 1998, a mere 'fizzle', has divided the country's scientific community.
While some nuclear scientists have supported Santhanam, who was in charge of Pokhran-II, others feel such a statement was uncalled for.

In an interview with rediff.com's Vicky Nanjappa, Dr A N Prasad, former director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and a distinguished nuclear scientist, explains the reasons behind Santhanam's statement and its possible implications for India.
What prompted Mr Santhanam to issue such a statement about Pokhran II?

I feel he made such a statement because of his concerns about the latest moves by the United States to pressurise India to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. I feel his statements are aimed at ensuring that India rethinks its stand on this issue.
India has already accepted the terms and conditions of the India-US civil nuclear agreement. Though the official position is that we can conduct tests, in practice we are not allowed to do so.
Once the process is complete, we will invest billions of dollars and if under any circumstance if we go ahead and conduct a test due to our national interests, the economic consequences will be bad.
In case we go ahead and conduct tests, then the deal will surely be off and all the efforts towards building reactors and infrastructure will be a waste. Probably Santhanam thought this was not the right time to sign the CTBT and hence he came out with such a statement.

Do you think India should sign the CTBT?

For all practical purposes, we are in a situation where the CTBT has become a mere formality, as we have voluntarily announced a moratorium on testing. As I said earlier, in the future, in case India goes ahead and conducts a test, the economic consequences would be terrible.

I think India should carefully study all these factors before going ahead.

Who do you think should shoulder the blame for the 'fizzle', as Mr Santhanam called the 1998 tests?

It is unfair to blame one single political party for this. Blaming the BJP is not right. Every politician who is at the helm of affairs is bound to go by the version of the experts and the BJP too did the same.

If the people who were in charge of conducting the tests say that the tests were good enough, then political parties have no option but to go by their statements.

Do you think Mr Santhanam is right?

I really can't say. It is difficult to detonate a thermo-nuclear device underground. Hence to say that everything is 100 per cent correct where Pokhran II is concerned raises a doubt. We need to look into the issue in a proper perspective and then come to a conclusion.

I personally don't know the exact results of the test. Insiders like Santhanam and P K Iyengar, who were actively involved in Pokhran-II, will know best. I must add that blaming politicians is not the answer here.

But the statement has come after 11 years. It raises doubts about the timing; it seems the issue has been scripted.

I know people are repeatedly asking why this statement was made after 11 years. Try and understand that it is very difficult to make a statement when a person is in the government. The official version is different.

A correct statement can be made only after the person retires and this could have been the case for Santhanam too. Probably he is worried about (India signing) the CTBT.

After the embarrassing revelations, how will India tackle the situation?

Let us not forget that it is a highly credible thing to carry out a nuclear test in the first place. Just because such a statement has been made, let us not take away the contribution of the scientists.

It is not a crime to fail.

Nothing can be 100 per cent perfect. However, covering up something that has not gone entirely correctly is wrong.

What about the CTBT? What does India do now?

Some damage control exercise is needed here. There is a problem on hand and it needs to be set right. There is a lot of chaos and confusion at this moment. At such a time, it would not be sensible to go ahead and sign the CTBT.
We need to wait for things to cool down first. There is no great hurry either since the US too has not ratified it. Unless they ratify it there is no big hurry.


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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 28 Aug 2009 20:56

ldev wrote:
”For security reasons, it shall not be proper to get into the details of the secret program which ran perfectly well with the most sophisticated advanced technology,which India possesses. This is just a drama played to force the Indian scientists and the govt. to commit some mistake or to come out with the top secret information of their advancement in thermonuclear weapons, which they have been so far secretly and successfully maintaining,” Dr. Raj Baldev said.



I can't help pointing out that Xerox Khan's cronies also speak like this.

More fog AFAICT adding to the growing list of conspiracy theories.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2009 20:59

Guys I will not accept name calling any of the scientists or PMs. They do what they have to do. I think the deal was the way to get out of the NSG sanctions and in that way was good. But if MMS did assert the supreme national interests clause in the Lok Sabha and we have to go by that. A PM's word still counts for something in India.
The politics of the decade was to square the circle and now wea re at new hiatus. The US-PRC nexus is getting stiffling for the US can make India pay for its well being just as it was 40 years ago.

Vina good net balancing post. Too bad you became a yum bee yea and the politicial world lost a very good decision maker. Cutting the TSP PRC umbilical is important. PRC has to be made ot realise that is in its interests.
----------
ldev, Very good find. In summary he is saying that the amount of fusion that came out was adequate for the Indian TN weapon. I agree that the weapon tested did have many SOTA innovations, in RC's words 1998 vintage! Dr. Raj is confirming that.

As Gerard said India needs someone of stature to say not withstanding POKII, India needs to keep the option to test open. If the Noko tests again then it India will revist the morotarium.
This is to prevent my hunch that its the off shore development site for PRC's new weapons which they can pass to others who threaten Indian security.

-----
BTW some said PRC tests were 75. Its incorrect. The number is 45. Last in 1996 before signing the CTBT.
-----------
Shiv, Dr Raj is no AQK. He knows his neutrons.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 28 Aug 2009 21:03

Another delicious guess about the timing:

Guess how Pakistan will react this time? Those 1000 marines and all... :mrgreen:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ldev » 28 Aug 2009 21:10

shiv wrote:
ldev wrote:
”For security reasons, it shall not be proper to get into the details of the secret program which ran perfectly well with the most sophisticated advanced technology,which India possesses. This is just a drama played to force the Indian scientists and the govt. to commit some mistake or to come out with the top secret information of their advancement in thermonuclear weapons, which they have been so far secretly and successfully maintaining,” Dr. Raj Baldev said.



I can't help pointing out that Xerox Khan's cronies also speak like this.

More fog AFAICT adding to the growing list of conspiracy theories.


Shiv,

Baldev Raj is head of ISGAR at Kalpakkam and ultimately responsible for the 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactor being built. I guess he knows a little bit more than us. :)

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 28 Aug 2009 21:16

ramana ldev - I did not mean to be insulting and I apologise. But there is an irony in reading such language which attracts attention and ridicule when we hear it appear from across the border.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby sanjaykumar » 28 Aug 2009 21:26

Cosmo Theorist, lead head of the Scientific Advance Research of Universe & Life (SAROUL) & Head of God Believer, World Peace Mission -


What bull$hit is this?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2009 21:35

sanjaykumar wrote:Cosmo Theorist, lead head of the Scientific Advance Research of Universe & Life (SAROUL) & Head of God Believer, World Peace Mission -

What bull$hit is this?


All maya onlee. Dont be misguided. Go by his message and not his attire. He had created the parasmani.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Vishal_Bhatia » 28 Aug 2009 21:50

RajaRam

Sir, if possible, can you send me that email too? I'm really getting curious to read your thoughts.
Sorry if this is inapt.

I would also appreciate if anybody forwards me the same email.

Regards & thanks in advance
Vishal Bhatia

E-mail: vishal.bhatia20 at gmail.com

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Singha » 28 Aug 2009 21:53

can anyone explain how the US ratifying the CTBT will make it more difficult for India to test ? some form of automatic sanctions if we test ?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RoyG » 28 Aug 2009 21:59

rajaram, I would also appreciate it if you could forward me your thoughts. Thanks.

delhiboy3000@gmail.com

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Sanku » 28 Aug 2009 22:04

vina wrote:CTBT will freeze everyone at current level of capability . If you have caught up with the AmirKhan and Russies, that is great.

For India , singing CTBT AND NPT AFTER testing makes eminent sense


I think Arun_S has argued at great length on how the technological gap CAN NOT be met without a similar investment -- a LIF + inertial confinement facility + tests before that.

Over the years we have already given up too much and are not left to coming up with continually complicate theories to justify what is a basic truth.

The Indian nuclear deterrent has been reigned in -- and thats it -- everything else is self comfort.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2009 22:15

Vishal_Bhatia wrote:RajaRam

Sir, if possible, can you send me that email too? I'm really getting curious to read your thoughts.
Sorry if this is inapt.

I would also appreciate if anybody forwards me the same email.

Regards & thanks in advance
Vishal Bhatia

E-mail: vishal.bhatia20 at gmail.com


Its on page 12 of this thread...

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shyamd » 28 Aug 2009 22:21

Meh... All this feels stage managed. I get the feeling Dilli Billi's have done their calculations. If CTBT etc is thrust upon India as the west is hinting on doing, this is the response. So, basically we have left our options open. Force, and we will test. But at the same time, if the west backs off, President APJK, RC etc will say yindu bum was successful...i.e win arguement (for a while).

RAW runs this angle.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby vera_k » 28 Aug 2009 22:26

This is getting confusing to the point where you can't tell left from right. Hope they don't sign any treaty before clarifying what the situation is. And this is a good case to start another weapons lab and design team so that the military can choose from the more reliable vendor.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shyamd » 28 Aug 2009 22:28

vera_k wrote:This is getting confusing to the point where you can't tell left from right.

Thats the point. Its meant to be like this.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Sanku » 28 Aug 2009 22:32

vera_k wrote:This is getting confusing to the point where you can't tell left from right. Hope they don't sign any treaty before clarifying what the situation is. And this is a good case to start another weapons lab and design team so that the military can choose from the more reliable vendor.


Except that
1) A top scientist has publicly doubted the bum -- and also using Sanjay Ms reductio ad absurdum logic -- deterrence broken
2) The nuke deal is signed and even the average DDM reporter can figure that its anti testing

Of course we BRFites are really smart, we will convince ourselves that this is all very Chankyan -- just like Sharm e Sheik

Just like the number of disturbed places going up to 200+ from 26 etc. etc..

All very Chankyan, GoI is firmly in control. How can it not be. No other option is possible.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2009 22:36

Only thing is per Chellany's article the TN wasn't weaponised yet and since KS only doubts that one deterrence is not broken.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby pankajs » 28 Aug 2009 22:43

ramana wrote:Only thing is per Chellany's article the TN wasn't weaponised yet and since KS only doubts that one deterrence is not broken.

May be then this is a call for weaponization, after all INS Arihant and K-X should be ready is a couple of years.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby sugriva » 28 Aug 2009 22:44

ldev wrote:Baldev uvacha


In other news
(i) Elvis was sighted today in Boise, Idaho
(ii) Something resembling a Raakitmard flew over New Delhi today. The IAF scrambled Mig29's to ascertain what it was. It turned that out pigs do have wings. The Govt of India therefore decided to posthumously award a padma bhushan to PG Wodehouse.
(iii) A rich farmer who owns a splendorous mango farm claimed that he had mated a Rottweiler with a cloned saber tooth tiger to generate a hideous monster that he hadn't as yet named. This came in response to the fact that the retired chowkidaar of the farm had claimed that there was no truth behind the "beware of dogs" notices that had been put up on the boundary wall of the farm. The chowkidaar had also remarked that while there were a few desi mongrels loitering here and there the rich farmer's claims about there being a nasty Rottweiler were all bogus. The barks that one heard were that of the pet Pekingese that the farmer's wife kept as a lap dog. Since no one had ever been inside the farmer's house, much less seen his wife, one didn't know of the truth.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Rahul M » 28 Aug 2009 22:48

Sanku wrote:Except that
1) A top scientist has publicly doubted the bum -- and also using Sanjay Ms reductio ad absurdum logic -- deterrence broken

deterrence, whatever we have so far is intact. this is about moving on to the next stage.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Aug 2009 22:59

ramana wrote:Only thing is per Chellany's article the TN wasn't weaponised yet and since KS only doubts that one deterrence is not broken.
Can you clarify what you meant. BC's assertion is not new and there is no positive indication that India has deployed TN warheads, or even the tonnage of such a planned warhead.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 28 Aug 2009 23:03

Rahul M wrote:
Sanku wrote:Except that
1) A top scientist has publicly doubted the bum -- and also using Sanjay Ms reductio ad absurdum logic -- deterrence broken

deterrence, whatever we have so far is intact. this is about moving on to the next stage.
Rahul M: It is strength that deters ,in matters nuclear and otherwise. On nuclear matters, we have Indian planners going into details of what India needs for CMD. We are not there yet, by a long shot. I am averaging out the maximalists and the minimalists.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Sanku » 28 Aug 2009 23:05

Rahul M wrote:
Sanku wrote:Except that
1) A top scientist has publicly doubted the bum -- and also using Sanjay Ms reductio ad absurdum logic -- deterrence broken

deterrence, whatever we have so far is intact. this is about moving on to the next stage.


My apologies I meant strictly in context of deterrence using TN. I see Ramana has raised the objection too.

However that we need TN for deterrence against China is also given (to me at least)

CEP or no CEP, 5-6 DF-II with 200+ KT warheads aimed at regions around Indian main cities CAN NOT be countered by Agni IIs with FBF warheads.

Chinese are known to be ruthless and have demonstrated that time and again and even now. They must fear so badly that they cant even think of the trade.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ramana » 28 Aug 2009 23:14

One thing though
Dr Baldev Raj was quoted

Dr. Raj Baldev said, “On this subject, two top secret meetings of Indian and US scientists were most probably held in Washington in camera with utmost secrecy to explain to the US Scientists why the yield of the thermo-nuclear device was intentionally kept below, the Indian scientists explained that it could comfortably be as low as 10 to 15 kilotons, still there could be no discrepancy in the device, they proved it to them and the US authorities were convinced. Even the USSR was convinced of the latest technology which India had.



and

since Mr. K.Santhanam probably did not belong to the inner team of scientists, he, therefore, lacked the correct information of the desired target which the Indian scientists wanted to achieve, and that in fact they got it.


Its interesting that they go to duplicity and brief the massa and even to bear but want to keep Indian scientists including the test director what was the test objective! The idea of the right hand not knowing what the left hand was doing is supposed to apply to charity and not deterrence. :(


Also when were these mtgs? Could they be before Hyde which means that the laws included provisions to prevent proofing? And thus were not a NPA but a NS obejctive?

One thing is there was a PVNR standing orders to be ready in one month notification. I recall that the Week from Manorama which used to have Delhi snippets writing about RC and APJK being summoned and leaving the mtg with grins on their faces. Then we read in WOP and the India Today that the authorization was given on April 11th the day of the gadda missile. And exactly one month later the tests happened. Meantime there was the short two-three week interval between the first grin mtg and the April 11th. So most likely they wen back and dusted off their plans and might have taken the Dr Raj approach. While everyone was expecting the old stuff to be tested some thing else was done. Hence the quzzical approach?

One way to clsoe the gap is to ensure the material is deployed fo rthat resolves dobuts from user community.
-----------------
Sankuji, Does it matter if the blow is from a sledge hammer or a tack hammer provided it hits where it hurts? I am not objecting but clarifying.
its not about deterrence which is still there but about capability which can be enhanced.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Avarachan » 28 Aug 2009 23:23

Sanku wrote:
CEP or no CEP, 5-6 DF-II with 200+ KT warheads aimed at regions around Indian main cities CAN NOT be countered by Agni IIs with FBF warheads.

Chinese are known to be ruthless and have demonstrated that time and again and even now. They must fear so badly that they cant even think of the trade.


Sanku, thanks for your insightful posts. I agree with you about China. I remember reading about a conversation between Chinese and Russian leaders. (I believe it was Mao and Khrushchev, but I'm not certain.) The Chinese told the Russian that they weren't worried about nuclear war--millions of Chinese would die, yes, but China could absorb that loss and move on. The Russian was shocked.

The Chinese need to know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that a Chinese nuclear attack on India will result in their complete obliteration. Period.


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