Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Aug 2009 13:56

Arun_S wrote:Pls get this straight, Santy was Kalam's BOSS. Not the other way around

Was Santy senior to Kalam ? Coz Kalam was then too big a figure in the establishment.

And, Yes Ex-president APJ Kalam is not a nuclear scientist. (although he never corrects his hosts when they glorify and introduce Kalam as a Missile and Nuclear Scientist).

Yes though he sounds humble , but he does enjoy PR .... may be it bode well for DRDO to have some one like him to get over the draconian defence force appetite for phoren goods.

But the bottom line for me is Dr Kalam should back his boss this is the time , I just hope and pray he does not turn out another establishment guy who say H bomb worked and we have sufficient bum.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Aug 2009 14:01

csharma wrote:What would be the weight of a 200kt boosted fission bomb.

Can India mirv these boosted fission bombs? VK Saraswat was talking about the need to reduce of the missiles by 30%.Is it to work around the TN handicap?

What would be the range of Agni III with mirved 200kt boosted fission bombs?

I think we should not think in those line , can a boosted bum give the same yeald although its heavier , yes strategic missile will be handicapped if we do not have a TN bum , plus its a technology leap we should cross and achieve , its a technology that we either have it or we dont , there is no middle ground , no damn computer simulation can help us get it , unless we test , get it right and knows it works.

If we have to sit with BIG 5 as equals we need TN and it is the only deterrent that will work against them.

From a technology pov , TN device is something that we must have , we cannot afford to not to have it .

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 27 Aug 2009 14:04

I agree. TN is a must have for a country having SSBN.

I think at this stage the only sane outcome would be not signing CTBT and leaving open the possibility of testing the TN later.

prataparudra · Post by **prataparudra** » 27 Aug 2009 14:05

Dont blame the scientists for the failure. amrikaa did 1000 tests and we did 1. Our baboos are chickens. I say lets do a smiling buddha one more time.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 27 Aug 2009 14:37

To and fro has started.

Or maybe its just DDMaya.

Times Now reported (~30 min ago) Dr K Santhanam's video statement, then Brajesh Mishra's all-is-fine line based on Dr Kalam's reputation, then some statement by Adm Sureesh mehta saying "we believe what the scientists tell us. We believe our deterrence is adequate" types.

Then 2 DRDO scientists over the phone (one Dr Gopal Krishnan I clearly recall) who clearly and heavily backed K Santhanam saying "He should know" and "all that simulation talk is baseless".

At least within the establishment, the stuff has hit the fan.

anirban_aim · Post by **anirban_aim** » 27 Aug 2009 14:37

Quote:
Saar are you really sure about that? I have a feeling K.Santhanam came out with this news precisely because of this scare

Listen, I tend to believe that all babus collectively are pin heads and collectively the system is dumber than a bag of stones. But however, that said, one thing is true about babus like these in sensitive positions. They are simply NEVER allowed to open their mouths (retd or serving doesnt matter) unless cleared by the Govt (remember something called Official Secrets Acts and Oath of secrecy ?) . A retd govt babu opening his mouth on such things. it means absolutely ONE thing and ONE thing only .

Quote:
The GOI of India is signalling to the world via demi/semi "official" channels with good credibilty

And what is it they are telling the world ?. See what is BO's and NPA's big takleef and next agenda ?. get the CTBT ratified and bring it into force. This is India's way of laying the "red line" / "lakshman rekha" .

Govt Babu Santhanam wrote:
Indian bomb fizzled

Actually what it means , when translated in to Inglees.

Quote:
Well, we are willing to sign CTBT. But we will have to resume testing before we can do that. So think hard before you push the CTBT on us. There will be unintended consequence.. After all, we have France's example in front of us . We are all Polynesians now , right?

Precisely my line of thought. I too tend to think that by this kind of selective leaks, what GoI is telling Unkil is:

1. Let us conduct a few tests & claim complete success and grand stand in the DDM, then it'll be easier for us to sell CTBT to the domestic audience.

2. If BO & HRC think that's unacceptable then stop forcing CTBT.

Assumption Made: -

The design glitch has since been fixed and the takniki log are confident this time.

I have full faith in the bargaining capabilities of Indians, we have frustrated diplomatic champs like "Kiss my ginger" & his thieving boss in the past & can play ball with unkil for long.

The Gora might have all the guns & money but the langoti has the brains and the tongue. After all Chess was invented in India.

Gora pressure bring it on!!!!!

Would like to know how the Paki media is playing it. Guess Kayani will offer a murga for halaal for grand Iftaar tom, after evening prayers. Shukrana prayers in Lal Masjid

P.S. : WB support sought for a Bakra

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Aug 2009 14:44

I am still a babe in the woods as far as nuclear weapons tech goes, but the international politics of this revelation is something which also need to be grasped.

One theory would be ...

Obama's two foreign policy initiatives depend on Afghanistan and Nuclear Non-Proliferation, aka CTBT, US-Russia Nuclear Disarmament, Iran Nuclear Rollback, NSG Rule Tightening, IUCNA freeze.

What happens if pressure builds up in India for a new round of nuclear weapon testing?

Most of what Obama hopes for in the field of an international test ban goes up in smoke, and his legacy starts unraveling. Pakistan will test again, even if it is a PRC weapon. Iran will test. North Korea will test even more. The Arabs will get fidgety.

My reading is that India wants to put pressure on Obama, that either he ensures that PRC does not get too cocky with India, or MMS will not be able to keep back domestic Indian pressure to test again. India would have learned a few things from Pakistan, that it helps to act paranoid. Also any CTBT discussion would force India to go on the offensive and test.

India is telling Obama that if he gets too cozy with the Chinese, and ignore India, there will be a price to pay.

williams · Post by **williams** » 27 Aug 2009 14:59

Most people will not know this. Dr Santanam headed TECHINT in RAW and knows how to play the game.

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 27 Aug 2009 15:07

Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparation

I doubt whether Santhanam was boss of Kalam then. As SA, Kalam was head of DRDO, reporting to RM. If Santhanam was his boss, where exactly was he placed in the hierarchy?

I believe Santhanam was the 'mission director' of the test itself, and in that capacity, had the final word about the conduct of the test. Any other interpretation seems incorrect.

prataparudra · Post by **prataparudra** » 27 Aug 2009 15:08

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,222002,00.html

What simulations?????????????????????????????????????

But Coyle, a former nuclear scientist, worries that information gleaned over 50 years of testing could be lost.

"In all the years I was involved in underground testing, time and again we were surprised. Something would happen that we wouldn't expect," he said. "We would realize that we didn't understand everything about the weapon."

"There's no simulation like the real thing," Coyle added.

vina · Post by **vina** » 27 Aug 2009 15:16

John Snow wrote:Interrestingly our man mavericks and the gang of renagades starting to spin that NPA community has brainwashed successfully our scientists to seed doubts about yield of the thermo so many spinsters these days ehh?

Long live the much maligned webmasters of the world, down with the mavericks who hate excel sheets or excellence.

Hmm. Snow garu, where do these "mavericks" post? . Would love to see how those folks are eating humble pie, especially since it sees that they have been dishing it out for so long .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Aug 2009 15:20

who is nook nood now ?

amit · Post by **amit** » 27 Aug 2009 15:40

RajeshA wrote:I am still a babe in the woods as far as nuclear weapons tech goes, but the international politics of this revelation is something which also need to be grasped.

One theory would be ...

Obama's two foreign policy initiatives depend on Afghanistan and Nuclear Non-Proliferation, aka CTBT, US-Russia Nuclear Disarmament, Iran Nuclear Rollback, NSG Rule Tightening, IUCNA freeze.

What happens if pressure builds up in India for a new round of nuclear weapon testing?

Most of what Obama hopes for in the field of an international test ban goes up in smoke, and his legacy starts unraveling. Pakistan will test again, even if it is a PRC weapon. Iran will test. North Korea will test even more. The Arabs will get fidgety.

My reading is that India wants to put pressure on Obama, that either he ensures that PRC does not get too cocky with India, or MMS will not be able to keep back domestic Indian pressure to test again. India would have learned a few things from Pakistan, that it helps to act paranoid. Also any CTBT discussion would force India to go on the offensive and test.

India is telling Obama that if he gets too cozy with the Chinese, and ignore India, there will be a price to pay.

The point to note is that what Santhanam knows today, he knew for the past 10 years.

Yet he's on record (Gerard and Anirban posted the rediff link, I think) supporting the nuclear deal. Surely his support was given in full knowledge of this so-called fizzle?

Then why didn't he come out then? In other words what's the significance of his timing to make this statement now? What has happened between when he made his (positive) comment(s) about the nuclear deal and now that made him come out with this comment that India needs to test? I think that his RAW connection in this case is almost as important as his position during the Pokharan tests. And also the fact that he's a retired official.

I think it will be more profitable to look at this aspect after a decent period (ie number of pages) of rhonna dhonna.

JMT

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Aug 2009 15:46

amit wrote:In other words what's the significance of his timing to make this statement now? What has happened between when he made his (positive) comment(s) about the nuclear deal and now that made him come out with this comment that India needs to test?

Possible reasons besides that truth finds a way out...

a) PRC's aggressiveness towards India
b) Obama shift away from India
c) CTBT offensive

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Aug 2009 15:47

Dileep wrote:I believe Santhanam was the 'mission director' of the test itself, and in that capacity, had the final word about the conduct of the test. Any other interpretation seems incorrect.

May be in GOI circles , Santy perhaps was above Kalam but not in open hierarchical system

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 27 Aug 2009 16:04

Anujan wrote:
a_bharat wrote:Any insight into the timing of Sanathanam's disclosure? Would it not have been more appropriate before signing the nuke deal? Or, perhaps we want to get whatever we can from the deal, and then test?

Some possibilities:
- he is a patriot
- he is a loose cannon; shooting his mouth off
- he is doing it under govt. guidance
|-- to counter Obama's anti nuke-deal moves
|-- increased threat from China
You can rule (2) out.

Agree. He is ex-RAW isnt he? He cant be a loose cannon then.

rkirankr · Post by **rkirankr** » 27 Aug 2009 16:07

munna wrote:Never felt this bad apart from Mumbai attacks! We should not drown ourselves in the flood of H&D tears but think about getting out of this hole, cause if nothing is done in next year or so then Dragon who is already breathing down our neck might be tempted to bite it too.

Well I don't know. Is is it a ploy from some Babus and scientists to pressurize the GOI which might have been thinking of commiting sooside by signing CTBT

amit · Post by **amit** » 27 Aug 2009 16:11

RajeshA wrote:
In other words what's the significance of his timing to make this statement now? What has happened between when he made his (positive) comment(s) about the nuclear deal and now that made him come out with this comment that India needs to test?
Possible reasons besides that truth finds a way out...

a) PRC's aggressiveness towards India
b) Obama shift away from India
c) CTBT offensive

Rajesh,

Could well be. Or there could be other reasons/aspects as well. It's too early to say.

Offhand I could add to your list:

d) Arihant to become operational soon and will, for the first time (for India) carry mated missiles/or there's a need to test a new class bombs for the missiles for the sub.

e) India got what it wanted from the nuclear deal (like the exemptions) which allow trade with France, Russia etc.

f) MMS thinking of signing CTBT and causing consternation in babu/scientist community?

g)...

The point is his comments was IMVHO, neither off the cuff, made in panic, in anger and any such other connotations. It was a deliberate and well-thought out and I personally think the decision was not taken by him alone. I also think it's no coincidence that BK picked up the comment and fleshed it out in more explicit terms. Unlike others I don't subscribe to the idea that folks like BK, BC etc are not team players even when they are screaming black and blue against the official line. (But then I'm an addict of Good Cop, Bad Cop movies!

)

Do note the key two points in Santhanam's comment is 1) No to CTBT; 2) Must test again.

Too many things below the radar for us to understand at this point of time IMVHO. One very important point raised by Sridhar I think. And that is the Defence Minsitry's statement gives more credence to what Santhanam said. Now unless we believe that after SeS, bad drafting, like H1N1, has become an epidemic in the govt circles why such a statement?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Aug 2009 16:12

1998 Press Conference

Special Weapons News May 1998

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 27 Aug 2009 16:37

Maybe this is what happened:

Neta: Now that we launched Arihant, we can kick the lizard arse, right?
SciBabu: No Sir, we don't have the phataka to load on it.
Neta: Whaddayamean, we don't have? We have plenty of'um!
SciBabu: We don't have the small ones to load on the boat Sir.
Neta: I was told we have the small ones too.
SciBabu: No Sir, the test fizzled. They are no good.
Neta: (Slams the table) Oh! Sh1t!!! Whaddawedo!! Whaddawedo!! OMG!!
SciBabu: We should test Sir.
Neta: Whaddayamean Test? You can't test just like that. We had told the whole world that the test was successful.. OMG!! OMG!! Whaddawedo!! Whaddawedo!!
SciBabu: We should tell the truth, and then test Sir.
Neta: OK. You shovel the Sh1t first. Then we will test.

amit · Post by **amit** » 27 Aug 2009 16:40

Dileep wrote:Maybe this is what happened:

Neta: Now that we launched Arihant, we can kick the lizard arse, right?
SciBabu: No Sir, we don't have the phataka to load on it.
Neta: Whaddayamean, we don't have? We have plenty of'um!
SciBabu: We don't have the small ones to load on the boat Sir.
Neta: I was told we have the small ones too.
SciBabu: No Sir, the test fizzled. They are no good.
Neta: (Slams the table) Oh! Sh1t!!! Whaddawedo!! Whaddawedo!! OMG!!
SciBabu: We should test Sir.
Neta: Whaddayamean Test? You can't test just like that. We had told the whole world that the test was successful.. OMG!! OMG!! Whaddawedo!! Whaddawedo!!
SciBabu: We should tell the truth, and then test Sir.
Neta: OK. You shovel the Sh1t first. Then we will test.

Dileep,

If you can please incorporate in your Spy story. (Great start - to the story - by the way!)

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Aug 2009 17:12

munna wrote:Never felt this bad apart from Mumbai attacks!

Not asking you not to fret.

just asking you to read these 2 docs
http://resources.metapress.com/pdf-prev ... ze=largest
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/fil ... 07_Hui.pdf

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Aug 2009 17:27

naval chief has been asked to comment against KS's comments now. GOI seems to
be in damage control mode.

meantime PRC and Pak continue their development of advanced warheads using the orc called north korea. north korea will test every advance the dynamic duo come up with, repeatedly and get grainloads of kansas wheat and truckloads of fish from japan to direct their fire elsewhere.

Shankar · Post by **Shankar** » 27 Aug 2009 17:37

well now you know when after Arihant laucnh I said " barc claim of indian naval reactor is total hog wash"-it is out and out oka 650

I was crucified because it came from BARC chief - what would you say now guys

the same scientists went all the way to support the nuclear deal

knowing full well the thermo nuke was a failure

This is the level of integrity of our top scientists

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Aug 2009 18:04

The timing of the statement related to the TN bum is interesting.
MMS is set to travel to the US in November and CTBT may figure in the discussions between him and Obama.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 27 Aug 2009 18:08

Dileep wrote:Maybe this is what happened:

Neta: Whaddayamean Test? You can't test just like that. We had told the whole world that the test was successful.. OMG!! OMG!! Whaddawedo!! Whaddawedo!!
SciBabu: We should tell the truth, and then test Sir.
Neta: OK. You shovel the Sh1t first. Then we will test.

Nice, pretty fun actually if your keep it at fun level --

In reality this should should have been know to the neta's when they were buys falling over each other to get Bush's signature and India loves bush and "lets sign the 123+Hyde never mind if it means that I lied to the Indian Parliament"

Its the same Neta's, they didnt know what chotus they had or did not have when they were signing the deal and whether we would need to test or not to test?

Its a clear cut rebellion in the ranks of GoI, much like against Gujral (what IFS claims to be doing to Gujral Mk II post S e S as per other IDSA and IHC type reports)

Just like S e S which was a straight forward matter all the spin is being given to gloss over a simple truth. May be fine for some political party, not fine for BRF.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Aug 2009 18:10

^^^
You forgot. Bush and Republicans love India too you know.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 27 Aug 2009 18:16

Shankar

unlike bums where we have limitations on testing - we have a lot more experience with reactors. So just because this is out DOES not make you right.

And once again you are willing to lump ALL our scientists in one shot. Is there anyone you will not denigrate to make the Russian sound like Gods gift to us??

Anabhaya · Post by **Anabhaya** » 27 Aug 2009 18:18

I doubt Shakti team kept the news of failure from the PM.

The decision to keep quiet about the failure and act normal must have been collective.

I doubt there was much point being honest about the test outcome - there was no way we were going to be able to continue testing in 1998. Perhaps now we could but certainly not in 1998. They needed to fix the damn thing first. That proces could have taken atleast a year or two.

Meanwhile we have come up with the 123 and a string of defence deals - I see it as an additional leverage we have with the US/West.

It is pointless deriding the scientists - the PMO has always been the last word.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Aug 2009 18:20

PRC is going to make their move just before the onset of winter freezes large scale activity or early in the spring before we have fully got our roads opened. tibet being rain shadow of himalayas prolly gets far less snow than our side.

I fear we are in for a ugly experience soon. nobody to blame but our own ineffective govts one after another - regardless of party.

nothing short of a clear cut hiding is going to satisfy PRC this time. batallions of
media people and even UAVs will be deployed to project their successes.

after some period of rona dhona , it will be back to navel gazing in dilli.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 27 Aug 2009 18:24

News showing Kalaam saying that test was completely succesful.
A disservice to the nation by lying, or is he speaking the truth?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Aug 2009 18:28

kittoo wrote:News showing Kalaam saying that test was completely succesful.
A disservice to the nation by lying, or is he speaking the truth?

Sorry to press my case. Just read the two following docs to see who is telling the whole truth and what parameters can be used to know the truth. Where is the maya and where is reality?

htp://resources.metapress.com/pdf-preview.axd?code=r46q4681x704m231&size=largest
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/fil ... 07_Hui.pdf

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 27 Aug 2009 18:34

shiv wrote:
kittoo wrote:News showing Kalaam saying that test was completely succesful.
A disservice to the nation by lying, or is he speaking the truth?
Sorry to press my case. Just read the two following docs to see who is telling the whole truth and what parameters can be used to know the truth. Where is the maya and where is reality?

htp://resources.metapress.com/pdf-preview.axd?code=r46q4681x704m231&size=largest
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/fil ... 07_Hui.pdf

I will bite:

Wouldnt Santhanam as the chief of the team have access to measurements other than seismic ones?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 27 Aug 2009 18:34

Dileep wrote:
Santhanam, who was director for 1998 test site preparation
I doubt whether Santhanam was boss of Kalam then. As SA, Kalam was head of DRDO, reporting to RM. If Santhanam was his boss, where exactly was he placed in the hierarchy?

I believe Santhanam was the 'mission director' of the test itself, and in that capacity, had the final word about the conduct of the test. Any other interpretation seems incorrect.

Saar, Kalam as a Scientific advisor to RM is head of DRDO and K.Santhanam is only a Chief advisor to DRDO and he is one of the Chief advisors to DRDO.

In the famous press conf after the Pok-II was chaired by 2 from DRDO(Kalam and Santhanam) and 2 from BARC(Chidambaram and Anil Kakodkar). Questions were answered by only RC and Kalam. If Santhanam is the boss he would have answered instead of kalam. And also by checking the retired date one can ascertain who is senior to whom.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 27 Aug 2009 18:36

ramana, SSridhar,
check your mail.
shiv,
if you send me a mail at rajaram underscore mk at yahoo dot com, I can forward my take on this to you. Not posting the same in the forum, because it can be disruptive

to popular opinion here.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 27 Aug 2009 18:39

Do we need to test TN weapon now, or, can it wait?

If we do have reliable (non TN) nuclear weapons and matching delivery systems to deter China, the test can wait -- assuming the leadership has the wisdom to ignore any external pressure regarding CTBT.

If what we currently have can't deter China and TNs in combination with nuclear submarines are essential to deter China, then it is a no-brainer decision to go for a TN test NOW. Anything else means India's leadership has compromised on national security and can't be trusted.

I wonder what MMS would do when he visits white-house in November. Would he be flattered to be the first foreign leader to be hosted at white-house and give away the store? I want to trust MMS' wisdom and loyalty, but if S-e-S is anything to go by, I can't.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 27 Aug 2009 18:39

Singha wrote:naval chief has been asked to comment against KS's comments now. GOI seems to
be in damage control mode.

Wow, just few weeks back the same naval chief is hailed here for telling the truth about the sate of defence preparedness. Suddenly he fall apart for not towing the BRF line?

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 27 Aug 2009 18:42

Hari Seldon wrote: Then 2 DRDO scientists over the phone (one Dr Gopal Krishnan I clearly recall) who clearly and heavily backed K Santhanam saying "He should know" and "all that simulation talk is baseless".

At least within the establishment, the stuff has hit the fan.

Is GopalKrishnan a DRDO scientist ? Sound like a retired DAE guy to me ?

Nothing is hitting the fan. The stand of Santhanam is not much different from what earlier he took.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 27 Aug 2009 18:49

Times of India which was referred here in other threads as TOIlet is now so palatable and accepted as it is on this news here, hmmm...

amit wrote: The point to note is that what Santhanam knows today, he knew for the past 10 years.

Yet he's on record (Gerard and Anirban posted the rediff link, I think) supporting the nuclear deal. Surely his support was given in full knowledge of this so-called fizzle?

Then why didn't he come out then? In other words what's the significance of his timing to make this statement now? What has happened between when he made his (positive) comment(s) about the nuclear deal and now that made him come out with this comment that India needs to test? I think that his RAW connection in this case is almost as important as his position during the Pokharan tests. And also the fact that he's a retired official.
I think it will be more profitable to look at this aspect after a decent period (ie number of pages) of rhonna dhonna.

JMT

Amit, what you thing about this remark from India today.

Asked why Santhanam might have decided to go public now, Karnad said that it was his belief that " as a nuclear scientist who has always dealt in physical certainties, try as he might Santhanam could not reconcile the physical facts of deficiencies in the design of the thermonuclear device evidenced in the test results with the profession of satisfaction by the government with the same results."

The question asked is "why now"and the fora is CTBT.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCMw4rBuolw

and here to for the same questions he replied it ia CTBT

A Sharma · Post by **A Sharma** » 27 Aug 2009 18:50

Govt dismisses scientist's claims over Pokhran

New Delhi: A former senior DRDO scientist's contention that the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests had not met the desired objective Thursday did not receive much attention from the government which appeared to be dismissive of it.

"Somebody has made a statement. I was puzzled by the statement. If you are not puzzled, you are a genius," Home Minister P. Chidambaram said when asked to comment on the claim made by K. Santhanam, who had been involved in the Pokhran-II tests.

"The government will find out (the veracity of Santhanam's statement)," he said indicating he found little merit in the scientist's claim.

Santhanam has said that the thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb in May 1998 was of low yield and not the one that would meet the country's strategic objectives. He said India needed to conduct more atomic tests and should not sign CTBT.

The scientist's version was contested by Brajesh Mishra, National Security Advisor in the Vajpayee government, who said R. Chidambaram, then chief of the Department of Atomic Enerygy, had reported to him on May 13 that year that all parameters had been met in the five tests carried out and there was no need to undertake a sixth one.

"It was clear to us that the thermonuclear as also the nuclear tests have been successful," Mishra said.