Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

[sanjaykumar]

If one recalls there was a cryptic statement from Russia that the Indian TN showed some novel and advanced technology.


But after a while, one gets tired of being jerked around. I prefer to have my yogic fliers not in the business of atomic weapons.

[negi]

One possible reason why there is so much brouhaha about the TN device is that imho there is a feeling in our scientific community that GOI might think about signing the CTBT some time in near future .

This sounds preposterous but then 6/7 years back who would have predicted that Unkil would be falling head over heels to sign a nuclear deal with India.And yes we are yet to see how well Unkil is gonna keep its end of bargain.

This talk about our scientists briefing US and RU teams is bewildering ,infact now I know why a civilian deal with India is giving BO sleepless nights while NoKo's antics are being rubbished as fizzles .

[munna]

Ok gentle readers (sorry for the copy RRji) after going through the posts and the long R&D which is nevertheless customary and sort of become a life as usual event for us jingos off late, I have some thoughts to share. In this game of Kya Aapka Panchva Bum fail hai? (Is your fifth bum a fizzle?) The 4 macro players are Ombaba aka Bada Owl administration, param pujya PMji and his PMO, Bureaucrats-Technocrats, Devil aka PRC-TSP entente and the renegade Shri Santhanam.
Taking off from Vina garu’s two ideas regarding the motivations of MMS I tend to believe and find plausible the idea that he is a status quoist in terms of our strategic deterrence and wants rapid economic progress for India. He undertook NewClear deal in good faith and with calculated risk of having to deal with a changed future administration, clearly the mid September collapse of Nimboo Bhai bank upset a lot of Apple carts and handed the presidency of USA to ombaba on a platter. Due to the precarious financial situation and the Chinese collection of T-bills things were really not looking good for us in January 2009. With a belligerent and increasingly bellicose PRC breathing down Bernanke-Geithner’s neck a pliant and Berzensky inspired Ombaba decided to follow a line of deference and dandavat pranam to the middle kingdom. This leeway with USA and the announcement of G2 emboldened the Chicoms to think about vely vely great war against the evil India hiding a splittist Dalai Lama. Ombaba and his chankian administration perhaps realized that a defeated and chastened India will be a good asset going in to the future rather than an economically sound and strategically secure India should things sour between the G2 in the future. If things were to go this far it could be perhaps taken to be a game of chicken being played out in international geopolitics however what perhaps has turned the tables and set up some Musharraffs in the GOI on fire are two important developments.

1) Ombaba administration is under severe pressure (I highlighted this fact some time ago in Indo-US thread) on the Healthcare reform front and as the news on the Rajdhani Hill is anything but positive for Ombaba. With death of Teddy Ken-eddy the supermajority no longer exists and reconciliation might be resorted to that is if at all everybody from the Blue Shwan/Kukkur/Kutta democrats is convinced to vote along. Having successfully frittered away his tremendous political capital Ombaba might be scouting for issues which do not concern the Amir Khani public and could still allow him to preserve and immortalize the aura of his campus crusader liberal image out to civilize the unwashed. Bang the NPAs pull out CTBT agenda that could give Ombaba a chance to be a hero who saved the world and at the same time neutralize the gains made by India in the deal with Republicans. Ombaba might have begun backroom rollbacks and given out cold signals to GOI despite the unilateral and over the top pampering that SOS was given by MMS. Deterred by the repeated and the deliberate slights by Ombaba administration Les Babooze and ze Les Scientistes put their thinking hat on and removed the Chai Biskoot cap.

2) Scene 2 the little blothers of the big blother decided to have a vacuum explosion sometime back which was definitely a cover for either a PRC-TSP dual use device or some kind of technological breach of frontier by the PRC establishment. Then all of a sudden a ship belonging to little blother decides to do some fishing near A&N cost because the great leader loves tropical fish and not cold water fish. This fishy expedition and the little blothers antics are worth something more than what we know in the open source.

These two immediate provocations and the Chinese war game right at our borders have set a cat amongst the pigeons both for the dynasty and the current strategic establishment. So what brings in this game Bureaucrats-Technocrats? Well clearly there are three theories going around that (a) this lobby has witnessed a mutiny by the patriots (b) they are playing a cynical sinister game to undermine Ombaba’s guys in GOI (c) finally it maybe that all of this is Maya only orchestrated by GOI. I will let the readers decide for themselves as to which one they think seems plausible to them.
Finally we can examine the case of the renegade Santyji he seems to be an enigmatic character to people like me who are not much into Mil Tech matters, his genius has to be appreciated. He has turned the Brahmastra of NPAs onto them by using their tactical positions to undermine their strategic goals. This ladies and gentleman to me is the silver lining behind the whole fracas as the renegade (in a good way) Dr has undermined Ombaba's/NPAs long run path by exploiting their short term propoganda and robbed any other black sheep in our own system of their cover to foist videshi CRE on us. He shot and greviously damaged multiple targets with just words! kudos

PS: My thoughts only, feel free to dissect and dismiss.

[Avarachan]

-----------------
Sankuji, Does it matter if the blow is from a sledge hammer or a tack hammer provided it hits where it hurts? I am not objecting but clarifying.
its not about deterrence which is still there but about capability which can be enhanced.

Ramana, the Chinese mindset and the Indian mindset are quite different. What might deter Indians might not necessarily deter the Chinese.

We believe different things about war and the value of human life, for instance. The Chinese have made that clear by the way they have used their army over the past few decades. As Sanku said, the Chinese are ruthless. We should not deceive ourselves into thinking that our enemies share our sensitivities.

[vera_k]

Its interesting that they go to duplicity and brief the massa and even to bear but want to keep Indian scientists including the test director what was the test objective!

Exactly. What Chidambaram, Raj or anyone else says does not count. Any designer will try to bluff and convince that their stuff is good and meets requirements. Ultimately, the test director owns certifying whether the weapon met requirements.

[John Snow]

The H-bomb issue is crucial
By BUDDHI KOTA SUBBA RAO

[arun]

Shiv,

Baldev Raj is head of ISGAR at Kalpakkam and ultimately responsible for the 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactor being built. I guess he knows a little bit more than us.

The Director of IGCAR is indeed as you say Baldev Raj. See here.

However the article posted by you here in this threadrefers to a Raj Baldev and NOT a Baldev Raj.

Previously Raj Baldev, the “Cosmo Theorist” mentioned in the article you posted had claimed that Stephen Hawking had stolen his idea’s .

The Director of IGCAR, Baldev Raj and the “Cosmo Theorist”,Raj Baldev are different people sharing two separate names that are differently ordered.

[Arun_S]

Shiv,

Baldev Raj is head of ISGAR at Kalpakkam and ultimately responsible for the 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactor being built. I guess he knows a little bit more than us.

The Director of IGCAR is indeed as you say Baldev Raj. See here.

However the article posted by you here in this threadrefers to a Raj Baldev and NOT a Baldev Raj.

Previously Raj Baldev, the “Cosmo Theorist” mentioned in the article you posted had claimed that Stephen Hawking had stolen his idea’s .

The Director of IGCAR, Baldev Raj and the “Cosmo Theorist”,Raj Baldev are different people sharing two separate names that are differently ordered.

One of them is a Evanjalical Jihadi.

[arun]

One thing though
Dr Baldev Raj was quoted

Dr. Raj Baldev said, “On this subject, two top secret meetings of Indian and US scientists were most probably held in Washington in camera with utmost secrecy to explain to the US Scientists why the yield of the thermo-nuclear device was intentionally kept below, the Indian scientists explained that it could comfortably be as low as 10 to 15 kilotons, still there could be no discrepancy in the device, they proved it to them and the US authorities were convinced. Even the USSR was convinced of the latest technology which India had.

Dr Baldev Raj was not quoted.

Rather a Dr. Raj Baldev was quoted. .

Please see my post preceeding this one.

[Masaru]

But it is a wrong impression; India has no need of going for any fresh tests, since it has already attained the absolute perfection on its Nuke tests and arsenals in all respects.

wow
Granted KS may not have full access, but did BR have that? If not what is the basis for making the assertion about attaining absolute perfection?

Dr. Raj Baldev, Cosmo Theorist, elaborating the subject said, “The program of explosion was of a specific design and level, its technical information with them was of a better DNA technology, which was restricted only to scientists of great confidence as thought fit at that time for specific security reasons, and since Mr. K.Santhanam probably did not belong to the inner team of scientists, he, therefore, lacked the correct information of the desired target which the Indian scientists wanted to achieve, and that in fact they got it.

May some gurus elaborate on what this technology is and how is it relevant to the test.

Dr. Raj Baldev said, “On this subject, two top secret meetings of Indian and US scientists were most probably held in Washington in camera with utmost secrecy to explain to the US Scientists why the yield of the thermo-nuclear device was intentionally kept below, the Indian scientists explained that it could comfortably be as low as 10 to 15 kilotons, still there could be no discrepancy in the device, they proved it to them and the US authorities were convinced. Even the USSR was convinced of the latest technology which India had.

Nitpicking, but was there even a USSR around in 1998
And, what is the need to fly half the way around the world to convince every body and their uncle. If you are confident about your yield then let the matter be.

“Even if for a moment we presume that observation of Santhanam was correct, the mistake in the design if at all it is there can be rectified, tested in the lab. No question of re-testing the weapon. I agree with Mr.Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Washington DC-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, ''Imagine you are a nuclear weapons designer who has corrected the mistakes and ironed out the wrinkles. You would be crazy not to want to test again,'' Dr. Raj Baldev said.

Again nitpicking but is he not contradicting himself? No need to test, and then one would be crazy not to test the perfected design!! At least some well reasoned arguments are expected from such eminent scientists.

[ldev]

Dr Baldev Raj was not quoted.

Rather a Dr. Raj Baldev was quoted. .

Please see my post preceeding this one.

You are probably right. I was wondering why the obscure publication and the language.

[Avarachan]

That's funny! The interview did seem quite strange.

[Jagan]

lmao at the Dr Raj Baldev Cosmo theorist - great catch arun

Note that Dr. Raj Baldev also goes by the name of Swamy Raj Baldev (at least according to some other people who researched him online) -
(see: http://www.futurepointindia.com/consult/baldev.asp and here: http://www.occultastrology.com/AboutUs/Sarjatak.asp ).

In this connection, the publishers of Dr. Raj Baldev's book sent a legal notice to Mr. Stephen Hawking in this regard through the British High Commission to India for violating his copy right. Later on, keeping in view the good relations between India and the UK, the matter was dropped. It is just to mention that Dr. Raj Baldev does have an expertise on the Black Hole and the theory of the Cosmos and his comments in this article are therefore very relevant. (Monica Groover from San Diego, California).

more http://www.internationalreporter.com/Ne ... y-III.html

[enqyoob]

All this is really comical. And the only SERIOUS conspiracy theory thread here, on the Arihant construction scandal, has been brutally suppressed.

The results of nuclear tests are CLASSIFIED, ppl. They are not announced in Parliament except for their political implications or PR value.

Anyone who says anything in public better be using UNCLASSIFIED info. And there can be no confirmation or rebuttal using CLASSIFIED info.

So KS and PC and PKI and AK can all say whatever they say, but it ALL has to be based on UNCLASSIFIED information or speculation, or political motivation. The people here waxing pompous about SCIENTIFIC FACTS and FULL PARLIAMENTARY INQUIRY are just on full Afterburner.

There can be NO scientific statement about the results of nuclear tests, based on information obtained from Classified sources, unless the person making the statement wants to be arrested and prosecuted for revealing Classified information. So... KS' statement has to be taken as a deliberate politically / policy motivated one. WHAT politics/ policy, can be debated.

Given the above, Dr. Raj Baldev is exactly as credible as Dr. KS. Or Dr. AK. Or Dr. PC. Or Dr. PKI. IOW, Zero.

[Sanku]

Given the above, Dr. Raj Baldev is exactly as credible as Dr. KS. Or Dr. AK. Or Dr. PC. Or Dr. PKI. IOW, Zero.

Indeed and we are all just passing gas, why don't we just shut down the forum, much easier than trying to jump into each thread and ease tensions of the meaning less debate by playing the clown.

[Rahul M]

deterrence, whatever we have so far is intact. this is about moving on to the next stage.

Rahul M: It is strength that deters ,in matters nuclear and otherwise. On nuclear matters, we have Indian planners going into details of what India needs for CMD. We are not there yet, by a long shot. I am averaging out the maximalists and the minimalists.

a believe a clarification of my comment is in order.

deterrence, whatever we have so far == deterrence against pak and a limited one against PRC.

is it enough against china ? IMHO, no. so no disagreements there. IIRC I've posted on this in the recent past. without a fleet of at least 3-4 SSBNs armed with MIRVed BMs we will not achieve minimum credible deterrence against PRC.

sanku ji, better edit that.

[enqyoob]

oh. NO! That is such a stellar example of what Sanku brings to the Forum, that it needs to be preserved for posterity:

Indeed and we are all just passing gas, why don't we just shut down the forum, much easier than trying to jump into each thread and ease tensions of the meaning less debate by playing the clown.

So you are saying that K. Santhanam revealed Classified results in a public meeting and is still walking around free? Or in India the Official Secrets Act is just another thing that is "chalta hai"?

Or you are just losing your cool (whatever passes for that) because with a second's thought you can see that it IS true that you are, as you put it, "just passing gas"?

Indeed, why have a forum? Why not just depend on REDIFF or INDIA-ABORED or CNN-IBN do your thinking for you?

[Sanku]

oh. NO! That is such a stellar example of what Sanku brings to the Forum, that it needs to be preserved for posterity:

Indeed and we are all just passing gas, why don't we just shut down the forum, much easier than trying to jump into each thread and ease tensions of the meaning less debate by playing the clown.

Dearest N, why only pick one line? Pick the full post including the context in which it was said.

Allow me

Given the above, Dr. Raj Baldev is exactly as credible as Dr. KS. Or Dr. AK. Or Dr. PC. Or Dr. PKI. IOW, Zero.

Are you trying to get the people to stop posting on this thread and carry on to better and more intellectual threads like the Benis by any chance?

Oh the horror, the horror.

[Sanku]

So you are saying that K. Santhanam revealed Classified results in a public meeting and is still walking around free? Or in India the Official Secrets Act is just another thing that is "chalta hai"?

Saw this added later -- Dear N you are late for the party. This one was already discussed.

If you see the ex RAW mans word -- there is nothing that can be attributed to him from NSA, since he has used only publicly available information.

HOW he has cast the doubt is immaterial -- the mechanics are pointless -- the ONLY matter of import is that HE has raised a doubt.

Finally -- he may have a life insurance a lethal and potent one. So claimed Arun_S, and I believe him, Arun_S has been unerringly right on all matters for which exists public verification. His predictions come true as well. It is not too much stretch of imagination to apply the mathematical induction principles on this and decide that Arun_S is nearly 99% correct.

Besides I am personally well aware of how retired Neta-Babu's have this kind of life insurance.

All in all yes Sante can make this statement and get away with it.

[Rahul M]

So you are saying that K. Santhanam revealed Classified results in a public meeting and is still walking around free?

I thought the IDSA meet was classified.

[enqyoob]

If the Meet was Classified, why are the Proceedings in the newspapers? hello?

If it was indeed an official meet, then anything said there is purely international negotiation.

[sudeepj]

The results of nuclear tests are CLASSIFIED, ppl. They are not announced in Parliament except for their political implications or PR value. Anyone who says anything in public better be using UNCLASSIFIED info. And there can be no confirmation or rebuttal using CLASSIFIED info.

So KS and PC and PKI and AK can all say whatever they say, but it ALL has to be based on UNCLASSIFIED information or speculation, or political motivation.

What Dr. Santhanam has said - raising doubts about the yield of the TN weapon - is based on UNCLASSIFIED PUBLIC information. Being the director site preparation/director of the Shakti campaign, he presumably has access to classified data (He has claimed as much, though not in as many words). He could not flail that around, so he has done the next best thing, raised his claims using the public data. (Whether the data is of NPA provenance or not is irrelevant, those NPA papers are practically the only ones around about Pokhran II). What you are missing is that a person who had access to classified data was not convinced by it, or saw enough holes to be concerned.

The people here waxing pompous about SCIENTIFIC FACTS and FULL PARLIAMENTARY INQUIRY are just on full Afterburner.

Come now, you know the SDRE kind cant make afterburners..

There can be NO scientific statement about the results of nuclear tests, based on information obtained from Classified sources, unless the person making the statement wants to be arrested and prosecuted for revealing Classified information. So... KS' statement has to be taken as a deliberate politically / policy motivated one. WHAT politics/ policy, can be debated.

Usually when ever GoI has wanted to make policy/politically motivated statements, they have never been through such public channels. This is very much out of character from the way our sarkar operates, especially the Congress version. Usually these statements have come from services chiefs or former bureaucrats. Never retired scientists and never never via Dainik Bhaskar. Further, it appears that Dr Santhanam has been articulating these concerns in private to others, for a while now. How do you reconcile that with a carefully orchestrated campaign by the GoI to push back on CTBT?

Given the above, Dr. Raj Baldev is exactly as credible as Dr. KS. Or Dr. AK. Or Dr. PC. Or Dr. PKI. IOW, Zero.

If nobody is credible, then how can you have credible deterrence?

[sudeepj]

So you are saying that K. Santhanam revealed Classified results in a public meeting and is still walking around free?

I thought the IDSA meet was classified.

It was supposed to be an off the record meet ('Chatham house rules' - contents can be published but not attributed) but a Dainik Bhaskar journalist (a paye lagein to him/her) went ahead and published the story attributing it to Dr Santhanam anyway. Dr Santhanam refused to back down in later interviews and reiterated what he said there.

It wasnt a classified meet.

[negi]

Narayanan garu... I will take a bite .

The discussion and debate over KS's comments are bound to take place we on BRF are not insular beings and given the argumentative nature of an Indian perhaps this is inevitable.

As for the classified info I have not come across any member posting anything which is not classified on this topic and infact I would go on to say BRF mods should BAN the guilty if they find any one posting classified info.

Taking into consideration the fact that there is no credible and official info on the yields I have to submit in this discussion one cannot take sides on this topic ; but it does not mean that we ignore the KS's outburst ,heck if it was so inconsequential why did respected APJ Kalam,R Chidambaram and other scientists even bothered to clarify their stand in MEDIA (which does not have access to classified info hence cannot make a judgment).

For me the major take away is that Shree Santhanamji chose to speak about the TN test in conjunction with the ratification of CTBT, which deserves attention from strategic quarters .

[sudeepj]

Given the above, Dr. Raj Baldev is exactly as credible as Dr. KS. Or Dr. AK. Or Dr. PC. Or Dr. PKI. IOW, Zero.

Are you saying that if Dr R Chidambaram were to hold a press conference, wipe the corner of his eye and say that yes the TN fizzled, he would still have zero credibility?

Here is a person who has been fairly close to the experiment all along, he says the same thing and has zero credibility..? Why so?

[sanjaykumar]

And only one poster did not defer to the good doctor's Kalpakkam affiliation. Hahahah So it was bull$hit indeed.

Sometimes these comments reveal more about phorrum psychodynamics than nucleonics.

[Rahul M]

If the Meet was Classified, why are the Proceedings in the newspapers? hello?

If it was indeed an official meet, then anything said there is purely international negotiation.

from ramana ji's link. have a look.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 39#p726539

----------
sudeepj, thanks for clarifying.

[enqyoob]

Being the director site preparation/director of the Shakti campaign, he presumably has access to classified data (He has claimed as much, though not in as many words). He could not flail that around, so he has done the next best thing, raised his claims using the public data. (Whether the data is of NPA provenance or not is irrelevant, those NPA papers are practically the only ones around about Pokhran II). What you are missing is that a person who had access to classified data was not convinced by it, or saw enough holes to be concerned.

And what you are missing is that the ONLY way in which Classified Information works, is that people who have it are not supposed to use it for ANYTHING they say EXCEPT IN CLEARLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS WHERE EVERYONE IS BOUND BY THE SAME LEVEL OF SECRECY AND HAS A NEED TO KNOW. You don't blurt it out first and then wonder who may have heard.

IOW, the ONLY way that KS can stay out of jail is if what he said is 400% wrong, as he knows it is.

No way can you escape saying: "I confirmed to the public that the speculation/ whatever in the Unclassified literature was true based on what I learned under the Official Secrets Act".

If this were not the case, hey, all you have to do is to have a list of statements published, covering every possibility. Then people who have access to Classified Information can just come in and say:

YUP!!! You done GOT IT! THAT'S the rite answer ONLEE! Now that it's in the Open Literature I can CONFIRM IT!!

Do u think the Official Secrets Act is worth the paper it's printed on, if people were ALLOWED to get away with this? So reason it out, and you see that the ONLY WAY KS can remain free from immediate prosecution is that
(a) what he revealed is so bogus that they are all watching Sanku here get his undies in a knot about complete garbage
(b) he was SPECIFICALLY ASKED to use the existing speculation, and the statements of the NPAs themselves, to make a stunning statement that sends a particular message to certain people. And it STILL is probably bogus. I hope he had written authority to say this, because otherwise, someone is going to put him behind bars. It does not matter at all whether he was "right" or not, they cannot afford to have people go around blurting out secret information.

The reason KS had to say it, and not, say, Arun here, is that only if KS said it, would it get the right level of attention. IOW, it's like Yudhishtira being asked to convey the news of "Ashwathama is dead". It still has to be bogus. Or make people with crooked brains like me sit and wonder what exactly is behind this sudden raising of temperatures about Indian nuclear testing.

So, whichever way you look at it, this statement by KS is very very deliberately planted. It may mean that the tests were successful and he says they were only 60% successful, or they were 60% successful and he says they were only 36% successful, or that there were no tests at all (some NPAs say that) and he is hiding that by saying they were 60% successful, or the development has now confidently reached the point where 1MT yields can be confidently achieved, and they want to hide this fact, or something else entirely.

Most probably, it is a signal that India will feel free to test anytime unless something unspecified changes.

As far as credible deterrence is concerned, it is (hopefully!) not based on newspaper statements.

[Gerard]

The H-bomb issue is crucial
By BUDDHI KOTA SUBBA RAO

All sorts of creatures crawling out from under rocks. He should be in a monastery somewhere giving thanks he isn't in jail.

John Gunther Dean's Oral History

Ambassador John Gunther Dean has donated his personal papers to the Jimmy Carter Library. Dean was U.S. Ambassador to Cambodia, Denmark, Lebanon, Thailand, and India during a Foreign Service career that began in 1956 and ended with his retirement in 1989. These interviews were conducted by the Foreign Affairs Oral History Program of the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training.

http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.org/libra ... /India.pdf

In 1987. the Indian Navy had leased a Soviet nuclear submarine. The purpose of the lease was to train the Indian navy in the use of such a technically advanced naval vessel. The reactor unit was sealed and the spent fuel was to be returned to the Soviet Union. Mr. Gandhi had assured President Reagan that "this specific submarine on lease from the Soviet Union would not be used in any manner in the event of any hostilities." Prime Minister Gandhi had assured President Reagan in writing that there was "no ground for any apprehension". Naturally, our navy wanted to know more about the submarine leased from the Soviet Union to India, and this led to a covert operation to obtain detailed plans and drawings of this vessel.
The incident occurred when an Indian Navy Captain was arrested at Bombay International Airport before boarding a flight for the United States in possession of detailed technical data on the Soviet nuclear submarine. Apparently, Indian Intelligence had tracked the Indian naval officer - or was he a double agent - and, in any case, I was asked to meet with the Prime Minister who confronted me with the facts. I did my best to smooth ruffled feathers, and fortunately Mr. Gandhi was sufficiently experienced in international relations to know that information on the Soviet vessel was a legitimate target for our Intelligence agencies.
I urged that the apprehension of the Indian officer before leaving India with the drawings should not adversely impact on over-all U.S.-Indian relations. At the same time, I protected vis-a-vis Washington the American official who had been in charge of this case at the Embassy. He left the post quite rapidly, but has enjoyed an interesting career after his service in India.

[negi]

OSA cannot be enforced for it would mean the obvious.

[Sanku]

And what you are missing is that the ONLY way in which Classified Information works, is that people who have it are not supposed to use it for ANYTHING they say in public.

Tucchh, tuchh you did not read what were the words that were actually said. Read them and then imagine GoI trying to put Santy in dock in front of judge on the basis of that.

Also you missed the part about the life insurance policy.

Heck when a person like Sante sits down in a conference titled revisiting CTBT, any thing on the topic of Nukes he says can be attributed to his "using prior knowledge available under CTBT"

In fact if the GoI is feeling generous it can also try and put Sante in the dock for talking about efficient cooking of omelets in his home (wife outside NSA oath you see) since obviously his knowledge of materials learnt under NSA could form a background haan?

In fact GoI regularly uses such third rate tactics for harassment when it wants to settle scores irrespective of whether the offical has done anything or not (Subbrao case anyone)

So claiming that Sante will not open his mouth on the topic of Nukes in whatever manner since it will automatically invoke NSA is as belieavable as saying that I can be arrested for smoking in public under the latest rules by Shri Ramdoss.

Yeah I can be, so can half the country, but it doesn't happen since we all have checks and balances outside the strictly legalistic provisio

[Sanku]

OSA cannot be enforced for it would mean the obvious.

Good point -- probably that would be a gift right to Sante', as some one said "come on, make my day" I would love to see NSA being tried on Sante'.

Probably Varun and NSA (national security act) all over again.

[enqyoob]

Ah! The same fine attitude towards the law comes out - as in "I can break the law as long as I think it's too much trouble to enforce it".

You can be arrested, prosecuted, and fined/jailed for smoking in public, even if the police officer, prosecutor and judge are all smoking and blow smoke in your face as you are dragged away to jail. The issue will be whether YOU broke the law.

Trust me - the speed cop in Emporia, VA, picked my red car out from between the two trucks where I was sheltering, to give me a ticket, and did a High-Five to the drivers of the two trucks as he pulled my car over. Would have done no good at all to protest, because I was speeding.

And in KS' case, YES, they can and will prosecute him if he used his knowledge to make that statement.

Look into the rules on Insider Trading, to get another perspective on how the law thinks. It doesn't matter if half the country is yelling that they should sell your company's stock, based on rumors. What matters is if YOU sell it, knowing insider info that the company is heading to Pakistan, and before that KNOWLEDGE becomes public - i.e., it is DeClassified. The fact that YOU KNEW is what convicts you - the defense that everyone else "sort of guessed" does nothing to protect you.

This is what I love about BRF. The opportunity to point out simple logic that any kindergartner should be able to figure out in a minute, but the esteemed Experts here can't see.

And negi, somehow I don't think that shyness will keep them from prosecuting - they can't afford NOT to prosecute. The trial may itself be sealed, and the evidence not released. So everyone can speculate WHY he is being prosecuted - but there will be no confirmation. They're all speculating now, so what's the difference?

You seem to assume that Indian law enforcement is ENTIRELY corrupt and at the discretion of the politician du jour whether to prosecute someone for breaking the OSA. If this is the case, then the Americans and Russians face jail in their respective countries for vastly overpaying when they paid the Cabinet with bottles of whisky or vodka.

[negi]

^ Just curious... for time being lets assume KS is not speaking at the behest of the GOI , so what exactly is 'CLASSIFIED DATA' in his comments ?

He has cleverly cast a doubt on the TN test; now I can understand folks trying to peddle a pov about GOI's involvement fine very well .My point is what IF this is not the case i.e. KS is speaking on his own ?

[Satya_anveshi]

So, ldev yet again managed to get himself in the knots over Dr. Baldev Raj . Earlier, RaviCV mistook him for Dr. Baldev Raj and there was discussion about it.

It is pure mischief both on part of Raj Baldev as well as ldev to post it on forum

For a shortwhile I thought I was reading TFT Nuggets.

Dr. Raj Baldev said, “On this subject, two top secret meetings of Indian and US scientists were most probably held in Washington in camera with utmost secrecy to explain to the US Scientists why the yield of the thermo-nuclear device was intentionally kept below,

Thank god he didn't report what followed after the meeting...my manage-e-trois with Katrina and Priyanka

[sudeepj]

And what you are missing is that the ONLY way in which Classified Information works, is that people who have it are not supposed to use it for ANYTHING they say EXCEPT IN CLEARLY CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENTS WHERE EVERYONE IS BOUND BY THE SAME LEVEL OF SECRECY AND HAS A NEED TO KNOW. You don't blurt it out first and then wonder who may have heard.

IOW, the ONLY way that KS can stay out of jail is if what he said is 400% wrong, as he knows it is.

Please, when you are stating an opinion, at least say that its your opinion. You are weaving complex theories (in all caps) all towards what end? To deny a need for India to retest its TN weapon. The simplest explanations are most often correct.. This has been your position since the very start of this debate in 2007. Since that time, a lot of events have come to pass. What would it take for you to change your mind? RC doing a press conference?... Please consider answering this question, its not a rhetorical flourish.

People have violated the OSA in the past and gotten away with it. Can any govt. dare to book Santhanam under OSA today? You may not have noticed, but India has changed a lot since you left.

No way can you escape saying: "I confirmed to the public that the speculation/ whatever in the Unclassified literature was true based on what I learned under the Official Secrets Act".

If this were not the case, hey, all you have to do is to have a list of statements published, covering every possibility. Then people who have access to Classified Information can just come in and say:

YUP!!! You done GOT IT! THAT'S the rite answer ONLEE! Now that it's in the Open Literature I can CONFIRM IT!!

If people with classified information felt a pressing need to confirm something, yes thats one way they could do it.

The reason KS had to say it, and not, say, Arun here, is that only if KS said it, would it get the right level of attention. So, whichever way you look at it, this statement by KS is very very deliberately planted.

It seems that Ks has been saying the same thing in private circles for a while now. How do you reconcile that with the 'message' theory?

And you do realize that this type of public diplomacy would be very out of character for the Indian govt. almost matching the Pakistani circus next door! Can you give me other examples of times when the GoI conducted diplomacy/send messages in this manner?

[ramana]

Oops.

Raj Baldev not = Baldev Raj.

Mea culpa. But was nice story no?

[enqyoob]

My point is what IF this is not the case i.e. KS is speaking on his own ?

We'll find out soon enough - if he disappears or is jailed.

It seems that Ks has been saying the same thing in private circles for a while now. How do you reconcile that with the 'message' theory?

And you do realize that this type of public diplomacy would be very out of character for the Indian govt. almost matching the Pakistani circus next door! Can you give me other examples of times when the GoI conducted diplomacy/send messages in this manner?

And they haven't jailed him yet, which means that its BS. Or means that he has clearance to say it and it is BS. Period. So the clearance was given with a very specific objective, which means that India has decided to go for new-new clear tests.

My point is, people with Security Clearance JUST DON'T SAY STUFF THAT IS SECRET. Not in "private", not to their wives (I saw that someone here has quoted someone's wife as the authority on the results of something Classified... ) . And hopefully, not when they are drunk.

If KS has said such things "in private" to people who then told ANYONE else, then he must have said it precisely because he knew those turds would go blurt it to someone. Like maybe he wanted it announced as "paanwala source" on BRF, so that he can reading it, as he is probably doing now.

[Sanku]

Ah! The same fine attitude towards the law comes out - as in "I can break the law as long as I think it's too much trouble to enforce it".

Dear me Narayanan, I didnt know that the Indian rules where so strongly upheld. I am lost for words.

In fact I am sure that all the rules in India are 400% upheld all the time. All the law breakers are 400% tried and sent to jail in all the cases.

I am sure what Santy said (if we take the western data is valid then their conclusions are valid) are also a breach of NSA and can be proven in the court. Since the great N said that on BRF no less.

All the CFD companies started by all the DRDO guys also makes sure that NO NSA rule is breached haan? And same for all the retired Armed forces officers who then work for private arms companies.

They have not used a tiny little mite of information they gained during their work with GoI (all under NSA) for other purposes?

All are in Jail? Admiral Nanda is?

You have been spending too much time in the Benis thread birather. Please come out of the cave complex. Its daylight here.

[Sanku]

My point is what IF this is not the case i.e. KS is speaking on his own ?

We'll find out soon enough - if he disappears or is jailed.

Immediately after Admiral Nanda and Sandeep Unninathan since he talked of ATV before it was public.