Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Sep 2009 23:49

narayanan wrote: IOW, there was no evacuation. Just a precautionary measure to get people out of their homes. Chalta hai. Good thing the fizzle fizzled or they would all have been dead.

The great N wills new realities into existence by his thought.

Can you please tell sir, how would villagers who where out of their homes (not evacuated, just taken out of the village, this is not evacuation, evacuation would be when they were shifted to Andmans) would have all been dead?

And of course all the GoI and Army personal who were much closer would have lived?

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 01 Sep 2009 23:52

Remember, everyone else was a director but Kalamji held post of Director general besides being scientific advisor to DM.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 01 Sep 2009 23:53

I dont know why Dr APJ should be disparaged thus? Does it mean I should forget all his complex program management contributions to securing *my house* in Trivandrum because he does not have "QA methodologies training"?

I would really love for GoI to test an up to date TN design, build a LIF and move on to SLBMs with mated warheads. But that doesnt mean one likes to hear people in this forum single out men who served the country with distinction. Shree R Chidambaram, as a professional, did what was demanded by his boss, the political leadership. Shree Santhanam did what needs to be done to screw the unkils, their satellites and treaties. Ultimately the tests, their test results declaration and follow on funding was a political decision for which they have zero control over. If the reports are true, then one wishes Dr Sethna did not get personal, but he would still be a revered scientist and I would still touch his feet to show my respect. These are a class of people, who carried a cloth bag to the market for their daily market, while doing cutting edge stuff for which they could have been snapped up west anytime. People whom we meet daily and yet no History channel program will be made of them because they were born to a "lesser race". People who are the only superheros for our kids.

Those who have control over this affair are us, the voters. If we convince the politicians we would like something, they will have to do it. Either by voting away those who dont agree with us or strong protests in streets. Can anyone over here organize such a thing? I dont see the mainstream parties getting involved. That to me is a give away that we dont know the full picture and we are not privy to any private political briefings on the rationale behind Shree Santanam's statements.

There is no point in calling professional scientists and Gurus any names. God forbid, if they read it, they will be saddened and that is just not right at lots of levels.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 Sep 2009 23:55

hnair wrote: There is no point in calling professional scientists and Gurus any names. God forbid, if they read it, they will be saddened and that is just not right at lots of levels.

No one has called APJ Kalam names. No one. Not even Sethna (much his senior) neither RC or any one else.

Only exception is the poojinya PM who is open session

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Sep 2009 00:00

hnair wrote: There is no point in calling professional scientists and Gurus any names. God forbid, if they read it, they will be saddened and that is just not right at lots of levels.

Couldn't agree more.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 00:02

The great N wills new realities into existence by his thought.

Can you please tell sir, how would villagers who where out of their homes (not evacuated, just taken out of the village, this is not evacuation, evacuation would be when they were shifted to Andmans) would have all been dead?

And of course all the GoI and Army personal who were much closer would have lived?

I was just quoting from the book that others have quoted here, and pointing out that the Army only asked the School Principal to "take the children outDOORS for a couple of hours". It is logical (if logic is still allowed here) that parents would not have "evacuated" to the Andamans or even to Jaisalmer, leaving their children in school. I don't know about Pakistan, but that is logical for India.

So I don't see why someone needs to come and abuse me for that. This is getting very tiresome, and it is time to ask postors like this "sanku", to put up or shut up. What is their counter to the point that the test turned out to be about at the limit that the homes in the village could take, and the test planners only considered it necessary to ask that the kids be taken outdoors for a couple of hours? What would have happened if the test, as you folks keep ranting, was 100% successful by your calculations (since you claim it was only about 50% successful? What would have happened to the village? Is that too tough for you to understand, or aren't you just avoiding the question because your whole campaign here is political, nothing to do with reality, and has been thoroughly discredited by elementary reasoning?

If you have some factual or logical counter-arguments, hello, I have been waiting for 30 pages for it since I asked. Clearly you have long-since lost the chance to make an honest and intelligent reply.

All I see is these sneering far*s from these ranters. Enough is enough. Post logic or bug off. And I am saying that as an admin. Accordingly, I am issuing a warning. There is nothing in BRF rules that says that being an admin means that one has to keep taking these gratuitous personal attacks designed to shut out truth and logic from habitual ranters. I am not your momma. You can attack the ex-President, the elected Prime Minister and all honourable leaders of India because they are public figures, but I am not a public figure. I give back as good as I get.

Do repeat your rants and sneers, and collect more warnings. Anywhere on BRF. It will be a pleasure.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 02 Sep 2009 00:06

Not only was Khetolai not evacuated, but Kalam drove upto khetolai on the morning of the test to buy a pack of cigarettes. Now how would cigarettes be on sale if the village was evacuated?

This only lends credence to the "deliberately kept the yield low" story.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:07

Naryanan, I see you have issued me a warning for taking you on. You personally dish out far worse and when I reply in turn you use admin privileges to strike back.

If you can not take part in a debate and use attacks on people while tying their hands back at them -- please don't participate.

{I have explained clearly enough for a kindergartner to understand, why your conduct is unacceptable, and you are contributing nothing but flame-bait to this discussion - or any discussion. If you cannot understand that, please get someone to explain it to you slowly. If you continue your behavior, you will be warned again. If you think that's "unfair", go whine where someone cares. Thanks!}

abhiti · Post by **abhiti** » 02 Sep 2009 00:09

Sanku wrote:Naryanan, I see you have issued me a warning for taking you on.

Finally someone is getting Sanku under control...good job Narayanan.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:09

Gagan wrote:Not only was Khetolai not evacuated, but Kalam drove upto khetolai on the morning of the test to buy a pack of cigarettes. Now how would cigarettes be on sale if the village was evacuated?
.

The villagers were removed before the explosion from the village itself. The evacuation of short term and local, it was not done in advance to not raise warnings

However the second explosion was done after 2 days. Surely enough time to evacuate if they wanted?

munna · Post by **munna** » 02 Sep 2009 00:10

narayanan wrote:the test planners only considered it necessary to ask that the kids be taken outdoors for a couple of hours? What would have happened if the test, as you folks keep ranting, was only 50% successful? What would have happened to the village if it had been 100% successful? Is that too tough for you to understand, or aren't you just avoiding the question because your whole campaign here is political, nothing to do with reality?

The fizzle camp has to categorically and logically rebut this particular line of thought to be taken as something more than as being mere whiners. People should NOT get worked up on things they do not fully understand unless of course they are in the inner circle unlike a poor ignoramus like me. Clearly rona dhona wont help the debate!

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:11

abhiti wrote:
Sanku wrote:Naryanan, I see you have issued me a warning for taking you on.
Finally someone is getting Sanku under control...good job Narayanan.

I have always maintained that admins who post on a particular thread should avoid moderating it. It is a clear conflict of interest and not all have the maturity to handle it.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Sep 2009 00:11

If Hn says APJ does not know about Fission or fusion it is not discrediting or disparaging.
It is a fact. Only teen party's, anando brahma, vladmir nobkovs claim to know everything,

There is no unanimity in the sceintific community therefore we need to keep our options open and work in multiple teams and test different designs thats the only answer.

1.5 tests dont give enough data for simulation.

Emulation of PRC is good for stimulation in this regard.

Some one played repeat of SLAM DUNK on GOI

Admin Note: Please see note below

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 02 Sep 2009 00:12

HNji wrote:I dont know why Dr APJ should be disparaged thus?

let's tone this one a bit. shall we? No one disparaged Kalam ji. Further, if some one did, don't blame the whole forum for it. I will give you an example: one guy who quoted purefool recently in certain context (s-e-s) and a guy who is known to generalize quickly came up and said now the forum considers purefool among experts.

some one says India test russian bombs and lo..behold, the whole forum gets painted as conspiracist.

during the meltdown, one or two posters echoed concerns on the status of solvency of ICICI (with proper disclaimer) and some one said the forum involved in scaremongering.

Why the heck some people do that? Same people at most times display amazing common sense and look at things from independent perspective.

JMTC.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Sep 2009 00:14

Ok...coming to the issue of evacuation following is my take/specualtion

This was an evacuation (not rehabilitation) i.e. most probably the villagers were just asked to move out from their homes and assemble in an open area in the village premises ; for since the tests being conducted were underground there was no danger of nuke fallout or collateral dammage, however one cannot ascertain amount of seismic vibrations which the village houses could bear and hence only a minimum precautionary measure was taken .

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:15

munna wrote:
narayanan wrote:the test planners only considered it necessary to ask that the kids be taken outdoors for a couple of hours? What would have happened if the test, as you folks keep ranting, was only 50% successful? What would have happened to the village if it had been 100% successful? Is that too tough for you to understand, or aren't you just avoiding the question because your whole campaign here is political, nothing to do with reality?
The fizzle camp has to categorically and logically rebut this particular line of thought to be taken as something more than as being mere whiners. People should NOT get worked up on things they do not fully understand unless of course they are in the inner circle unlike a poor ignoramus like me. Clearly rona dhona wont help the debate!

This is a non argument -- many have already said more than once that the village of Khetolai could be evacuated.

If Khetolai was an issue --

Dig the shafts deeper
Remove the village a year before the test
Shift the test site.
Let the village be destroyed but give compensation to the villagers

Given the multitudes of options which are easily available and have been already listed before, for N to continue insisting that it has not been taken on is sheer avoidance of topic.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 00:18

I have always maintained that admins who post on a particular thread should avoid moderating it. It is a clear conflict of interest and not all have the maturity to handle it.

And I have thought about that deeply, and agree with it, but only as long as postors are not abusing that courtesy to keep making gratuitous personal attacks thinking they have absolute immunity.

I welcome people to disagree with me - otherwise I would not be on BRF. I can talk to a mirror if I want agreement. However, in your case and one or two other cases, the postors have been deliberately and systematically abusing their privilege, and all "rules of the game", and making personal attacks in lieu of argument, sheltering behind that rock. This completely messes up the environment, as other postors have pointed out.

An example needs to be demonstrated.

Congratulations! You are exemplary! I just kicked away the rock under which you were hiding and stinking up the place. Enjoy!

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 02 Sep 2009 00:19

Katare wrote:Remember, everyone else was a director but Kalamji held post of Director general besides being scientific advisor to DM.

I find it a little ironical that our diplomats whose day jobs are to play with words (among other things) give us S-e-S. And here we are splitting hairs on the words uttered by scientists and other technical people.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Sep 2009 00:21

APJ does not know about Fission or fusion it is not discrediting or disparaging.
Boss but if we on the forum are speculating on fission and fusion and the intricate details as to why it was a sizzle/fizzle why should we be judgmental about APJK's knowledge ?

Anyways the issue of contention is not about who is a better physicist or an engineer for that matter point is that the yield numbers infact the whole exercise of yield estimation was done by a select group of individuals who alone are privy to this sort of data and hence are the only people who can qualify the TEST as a success.

No one knows if KS has access to this information and his comments on the test need to scrutinized keeping this in mind.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:24

{Continued whining and wailing deleted.}

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 02 Sep 2009 00:25

If Khetolai was an issue --

Dig the shafts deeper
Remove the village a year before the test
Shift the test site.

Exactly.

1. Khetolai WAS clearly an issue - the Army drove up and asked to take the kids outside the schoolhouse. They didn't just sit back and sip chai and reason that they could always compensate the parents for dead children. Since it was the Indian Army and not the Pakistan Army, and since Rajasthani villagers are important to the Indian Army (you may not be able see why - after all it is so far from where you are..) they don't do what you would have done:

Let the village be destroyed but give compensation to the villagers

As I pointed out carefully, that would have been utterly criminal in negligent test design, and someone would have caught that in the numerous test design reviews that must have been conducted.

2. They could indeed have removed the village a year before the test - or shifted the test side, absolutely, there was NO reason to test there if there had been any reason to be concerned about the village or villagers. EVEN AT 100% YIELD.

But .. at what you guys claim was 50% yield, the village homes suffered major damage. So - what does that say about what would have happened at 100% yield? You STILL can't understand the question - or aren't you just pretending?

And of course the biggest point:

Khetolai is as far, or further, away from the test site, as the Army's own Logistics Base. What test designer would have designed the test to endanger their own base?

munna · Post by **munna** » 02 Sep 2009 00:28

Sanku wrote:This is a non argument -- many have already said more than once that the village of Khetolai could be evacuated.

Let me use by 2 bit non-technical dismal scientist brain to help the debate! What N^3 has said is that test administrators/scientists were testing close to a village called Khetolai and there own logistics base was roughly at the same distance (actually closer) to the test site. Now as per a safe testing procedure and pre-test mapping/ranging of geography scientists expected a certain amount of energy to be released which could not have damaged either the village or the base. Villagers were asked to stand outside of buildings as a precaution just in case the yield was more or the test became uncontrolled. Now in retrospect the damage to Khetolai buildings was clearly more than what scientists expected and this points to only one fact and that is that yield from the test exceeded estimates. Clearly our scientists are not Kaliadasas to blast off their own logistics base!!!!
The other possiblity is that FBF device caused max damage instead of the TN one, I am clearly short of any knowledge on this question . Regards

If Khetolai was an issue --
Dig the shafts deeper
Remove the village a year before the test
Shift the test site.
Let the village be destroyed but give compensation to the villagers

Given the multitudes of options which are easily available and have been already listed before, for N to continue insisting that it has not been taken on is sheer avoidance of topic

The question why was the damage greater than expected ? I have mentioned the line of thinking followed by some on the forum and how i perceive it, the fizzle claimers are free to rebut, debunk and trash.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 00:36

I am not getting into any debate about yields here but Sethna and Iyengar should remember that the same people who questioned the yield of POK-2, questioned the yield of POK-1.

In addition, I am not so sure if Santhanam can be called a nuclear scientist himself.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 00:40

narayanan wrote:(you may not be able see why - after all it is so far from where you are..) they don't do what you would have done:

N I am far closer to where Khetolai is than you would probably ever be, and continue be there. I do not talk about Nukes objectively from distant shores.

Have you ever been to Khetolai? I have. This is precisely the sort of personal attack you feel so free in sending out but when it comes back you hit the button.

But .. at what you guys claim was 50% yield, the village homes suffered major damage. So - what does that say about what would have happened at 100% yield? You STILL can't understand the question - or aren't you just pretending?

What you are saying is obvious you that the damage expected to Khetolai full yield was expected to be minimal, however since Khetolai was damaged it had to be bigger blast. Right?

Let me get back to that in a second.

Khetolai is as far, or further, away from the test site, as the Army's own Logistics Base. What test designer would have designed the test to endanger their own base?

Did the base also have cracks? So if Khetolai further away had cracks so would be the nearer bases. No one has mentioned that and also as far as I know from any source (including my own)

So whats the poiint? The point is that predicting damage to built up units due to explosion induced seismic activity is very difficult.

You have made this assumption that BARC had the damage and the yield and the radius all figured out.

I have not seen any literature posted that backs up that assumption -- Khetolai's damage (a few cracks at best) were never accurately modeled as you seem to claim.

Heck we are questioning the very basic understanding of seismographs and rock structures and you are saying they threw in Khetloai too and modelled it all.

TOO far fetched.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 00:42

SBM, I have question for you. What did HNS mean wrt POKI 'almost collapsed'?

When we did the test... the first test there was no politician. It was a raw one. We were lucky that the whole thing collapsed," said Sethna

What thing?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 00:45

I suspect it has to do with the crater produced but I don't know for sure. I am still in a state of shock that grown men can behave this way over a disagreement. Indians have to learn to disagree.

Ultimately everyone is entitled to take credit or to receive blame and all members of the team are equally entitled to their views.

Notice Santhanam, Chidambaram and Kalam after their initial statements kept quiet ?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 00:52

If it means the shaft alot to think about. It means the geology requires more burial to contain the explosion. And could explain using the WH shaft for S-I. But that was not said like this in any of the briefings.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 02 Sep 2009 00:58

Satya_anveshi wrote:
Katare wrote:Remember, everyone else was a director but Kalamji held post of Director general besides being scientific advisor to DM.
I find it a little ironical that our diplomats whose day jobs are to play with words (among other things) give us S-e-S. And here we are splitting hairs on the words uttered by scientists and other technical people.

The point was he would have access to all of the information from all sources as the leader (not scientist/subject matter expert) of the project and boss of 'em all. He was best positioned and authorised to make an overall judgement on the results.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 00:59

Ramana, why do we think that any design team was going to give intimate details of each shaft and the geology ?

In a sense the West has held India to a "proof" standard that it has not held itself or even China to. Notice how many Chinese tests were "between 1-20KT" and this after Lop Nor was well calibrated ?

I am not saying more tests aren't needed - of course I'd like to see more but let's cut the emotions out and look at what has been achieved, what simulations can bridge and what more needs to be proved dynamically.

We at BRF aren't experts either and if only nuclear physicists are allowed in this debate then I think Karnad, Chellaney Bhaskar and even Menon and Subramanyam are to be excluded.

I come back to the central question - if there are no TN weapons in the arsenal what has the deterrent (which does exist) been built around ? Why 500-1500kg payloads ? It can't be for a 15KT fission warhead. Something larger - and reliably larger (because the military is clear on issues of reliability) - is being used.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 02 Sep 2009 01:00

Damage to Khetolai structures is a red herring. As far as I know, *none* of the structures collapsed (if they did, where are the pictures in the NPA press?), the max evidence of damage is significant cracks in some URM (Unreinforced Masonry) houses. URM is the worst kind of structure to withstand seismic waves, cracks occur even when the foundation settles under normal circumstances. This damage is no evidence for either a fizzle or a sizzle.

FWIW, Khetolai is a very small village of 1200 people, max number of households is probably 600.. For ~600 crore ruppees you could have built a gleaming new Khetolai with McMansions and swimming pools.

Is the Indian govt. so stupid that they would let (paraphrasing) 'a kingdom be lost for want of a nail'?

The village itself is 5kms away from the test site, and much closer to the highway. If required, a full scale evac. of 1200 people is possible in a matter of minutes.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 01:02

Sanjay, Didnt we come to the conclusion, (led by Arun_S) that the warheads were large FBF devices? Meanwhile, you are right if the disagreement only came from the NPAs we could have brushed that aside.

The problem is that now KS, Homi Sethna and BK/BC are saying it, and I do think these gentlemen have a very fair idea of whats going on.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 01:05

sudeepj wrote:Damage to Khetolai structures is a red herring. As far as I know, *none* of the structures collapsed (if they did, where are the pictures in the NPA press?), the max evidence of damage is significant cracks in some URM (Unreinforced Masonry) houses. URM is the worst kind of structure to withstand seismic waves, cracks occur even when the foundation settles under normal circumstances. This damage is no evidence for either a fizzle or a sizzle.

Indeed none of the Pucca houses had cracks (I visited shorty afterwards, while going to Jaisalemer) and the base had no effect at all. None. Even the road/highway had no cracks etc.

Its a total red herring.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 01:05

Sanjay, There is no questioning of the PRC for all the fizzles they do have well documented sizzles. And if you note I have been quite objective at looking at all info. Case in point my above post.

Yes from memory, APJK's IGMP component REX was reconfigured from a small payload to a heavy payload after his mtg in Delhi.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 Sep 2009 01:09

Ramana, I never accused you of anything either explictly or implictly.

I agree with your view on PRC but we must accept that a higher standard of proof is being demanded from India than anyone else.

Sanku, we came to a speculation on the warheads not a conclusion.

PKI has been very consistent in his viewpoint. Santhanam less so.

Sanku - I have a simple view - accept Santhanam at his word because it is a worst case situation. He could be right, he could be wrong but he did give something away in that his view was that S-1 was 50-60% successful. That does give us an idea of what yield was expected or claimed.

My concern is more basic - why now ? Santhanam is not a loose cannon. He has brilliantly cut any talk of India signing the CTBT as is out.

The other concern is that of the behaviour of Sethna and Iyengar as being above reproach themselves. Let us not forget POK-1 was also questioned. Some people claim a total fizzle for that too and Iyengar was claiming anywhere from 8-13kT.

negi · Post by **negi** » 02 Sep 2009 01:09

max evidence of damage is significant cracks in some URM (Unreinforced Masonry) houses.

Sanku wrote: Indeed none of the Pucca houses had cracks (I visited shorty afterwards, while going to Jaisalemer) and the base had no effect at all. None. Even the road/highway had no cracks etc.

Its a total red herring.

And that is why you don't buy the taming down of the yield theory ?

Don't you think scientists are allowed to err on the side of caution ?

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 02 Sep 2009 01:19

FWIW - nuclear tests are not done in a vaccum. The US, UK and France are the western 3 in the P5. The former USSR and China were the Communist 2 in the P5. When China first tested it was firmly a part of the Communist bloc. The global environment was divided into two blocs then with competiting military and economic systems i.e. there were potential options outside of the western led Bretton Woods monetary system. The end of the communist sytem was nowwhere in sight, in fact the technological achievements of the USSR in the 1950s and 1960s were impressive enough to warrant the thinking that they might win out in the global competition with the West. But all of of the P5 were part of either the First or Second Worlds and provided cover for each other in their respective blocs in terms of testing nukes.

India has always been part of the third world. Never big enough or strong enough to withstand global pressures. With the collapse of the USSR and China's conversion into a quasi market based economy based on the US dollar, a country cannot exist outside of the US led global economic structure. There is no place to hide, not for a country of 1 billion people. There are only fleeting opportunities to buck the system for a few days - that is what the NDA government did in 1998. And if the story about PVN handing the note to ABV to test is accurate, then PVN knew correctly, that the ABV government would be the "new kids on the bloc" for all of those few days that the tests were done. Immediately thereafter the pressure would be so great that they would for the sake of the country be forced to enter into a dialogue to curtail further nuclear ambitions - that is exactly what happened with the JS-Talbott dialogue and the announcement of the voluntary moratorium.

And so my reading is that there will be no tests, no matter how many "insiders" like KS speak out, not unless India faces actual hostilities on its Chinese border

OR

unless India has a substantial voice in the global economic system... whichever way you want to define it...India's actions in the global economic arena have the capacity to cause economic difficulties at a global level. I do not think the Indian economy is anywhere close to that level right now.

Therefore, what any GOI will do is to maintain an inventory of nukes sufficient to deter aggression... nukes of whatever means, fission, FBF or untested TNs. After all nobody including India's potential adversaries can be certain that India's TNs will not work. Just suppose that 10 out of 20 200kt warheads perform at their designed yield? Can any adversary gamble on that uncertainly. In that sense, deterrence has worked in the past and should work in the future.

There is no use crying over the split milk if any of 1998. If any criticism can be levelled, it is that the interaction between enumerating the geo political realities in which India as a rank outsider would have a fleeting opportunity to test on the one hand

and

the scientific preparations necessary to counter the prospect of even remote failures in some of the designs tested to give the maximum probability of achieveing scientific and political objectives associated with the tests

were not sufficiently thought through i.e. somebody within the Indian establishment who understood both the geopolitical realities as well as the scientific underpinnings of the tests. Logically speaking such a person is the National Security Advisor. But who knows what pressures various people including the NSA were at that point of time.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 01:26

Sanjay wrote: Sanku - I have a simple view - accept Santhanam at his word because it is a worst case situation. He could be right, he could be wrong but he did give something away in that his view was that S-1 was 50-60% successful.

My concern is more basic - why now ? Santhanam is not a loose cannon. He has brilliantly cut any talk of India signing the CTBT as is out.

Let us not forget POK-1 was also questioned.

Sanjay I am 100% with you there. That is not my contention at all.

If you see my point has been -- do we have a demonstrated 200KT device on which we can clearly say, no doubts at all and no GoI scientists come up to say err.....

So I don't think we are in disagreement so far.

My points are different
1) Try and counter the claims that it was 100% as designed and Santy can not be taken at face value.
2) Try and demonstrate that a fizzle is not a big deal, if not for restrictions against testing.

As far as why now is concerned I think there was nothing new except that it got into press and became an issue. A group of respectable people seem to be raising this on semi-official platforms for a while (anecdotal data)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 01:30

Sanjay wrote:Ramana, I never accused you of anything either explictly or implictly.

I agree with your view on PRC but we must accept that a higher standard of proof is being demanded from India than anyone else.

Sanku, we came to a speculation on the warheads not a conclusion.

PKI has been very consistent in his viewpoint. Santhanam less so.

Sanku - I have a simple view - accept Santhanam at his word because it is a worst case situation. He could be right, he could be wrong but he did give something away in that his view was that S-1 was 50-60% successful. That does give us an idea of what yield was expected or claimed.

My concern is more basic - why now ? Santhanam is not a loose cannon. He has brilliantly cut any talk of India signing the CTBT as is out.

The other concern is that of the behaviour of Sethna and Iyengar as being above reproach themselves. Let us not forget POK-1 was also questioned. Some people claim a total fizzle for that too and Iyengar was claiming anywhere from 8-13kT.

Because that undermines the cornerstone of post WWII security architecture-NPT. A demonstrated clear high yield test will shatter the NPT which is nothing but shackles India. The toothless NPT has allowed PRC, one of the P-5, to proliferate to TSP and US the so-called superpower did nothing to undo that. On the other hand they wanted to sanction India for protecting its interests. A mouse roar won't scare the hyenas. So India can claim anything in the cupboard but what they need to hear is what matters to them.

Hence the need for high standards for those who come lately to the high table.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2009 01:33

Ldev very good summation. At the least BRF can help develop a 360 degree view and we are working on that.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 02 Sep 2009 01:34

negi wrote:max evidence of damage is significant cracks in some URM (Unreinforced Masonry) houses.

Sanku wrote: Indeed none of the Pucca houses had cracks (I visited shorty afterwards, while going to Jaisalemer) and the base had no effect at all. None. Even the road/highway had no cracks etc.

Its a total red herring.
And that is why you don't buy the taming down of the yield theory ?
Don't you think scientists are allowed to err on the side of caution ?

No scientists are certainly allowed to err on the side of caution, but then I would argue they would shift Khetolai.

The issue here is that N claims that the yeild was actually more than expected and the scientists backed off after they saw the damage at Khetolai.

I am questioning
1) Damage -- very little
2) Enough time to evacuate if needed
3) Ability to make an accurate assessment of damage from yield, given that first need to translate yield to seismic activity and then seismic activity to actual damage. Not a practical exercise at all.

So all this talk of, we deliberately kept the yeild low to save Khetloai looks farfetched. If they knew this was an issue, just move the village. This is national deterrence we are talking of.

More villages get moved for Corbett for gods sake.