Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

enqyoob
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 07 Sep 2009 18:18

OK, so I have to remember to look at the end of Page 59 to find that again, as we start a fresh round on the merry-go-round..

Raja Ram
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Raja Ram » 07 Sep 2009 18:45

After 60 pages, both camps have been reduced to sticking to their own points refusing to even acknowledge the other side being capable of thinking. That is the truth. BR deserved better, but this what it gets.

There is no gain here from further acrimony. Nothing gets added to the body of knowledge. It does take a little bit of thinking through to recognise the real issue. Unfortunately, many here have tried to do it but are held prisoner by their own beliefs and biases. This holds true for both camps.

What is the point of discussing in an endless loop is beyond me, yet page after it continues and slowly but surely the sheer meaningless nature of this "debate" will degenerate to more name calling and venting.

Let us try and look ahead for a change. It is clear that the debate triggered by the revealation by KS has made an impact. The thing that still remains unclear is whether the GOI had backed him to do what he did and is still behind the public "debate" or not? The evidence so far is inconclusive on that score.

The signals emanating from people in the GOI indicate that they are looking to move ahead with a twin track approach

1. To deflect the CTBT and other pressure, GOI wants to pull out and issue call for a time bound verifiable disarmament that is structured with the big guys giving up their arsenal, and opening access to other responsible powers in the nuclear haves (read India, Israel, SA, Brazil?) to technology. In the interim, there will be a freezing of testing across the board and that should be verifiable in the same way to all concerned - whether P5, or trishankus like India and the have nots through a CTBT.

2. If that is not acceptable, then India will do either of the following

a) Sign up to CTBT and other nonsense, but in return ask for a number of things such as UN security council seat with veto power, access to dual use technology across the board, assured investments for a set number of years to compensate for the additional cost to adhere to other agreements such as climate control, seat at the economic high table, access to R&D etc. In short a trading of our strategic options for something more tangible. It also is based on the belief or reading that nuclear disarmament will happen and there is no need for such weapons.

b) State clearly that signing up things like CTBT is not worth it if there is no clear commitment to universal verifiable disarmament that is based on equality. Assert the right to test if the assessment of threat perception by India so demands it or if the arsenal improvements warrant the same. Re-emphasise that as of now India remains committed to the voluntary moratorium in force and throw the ball back to their court. In short, reassertion of our soverign rights as a nation to retain our sovereign options. This would be based on the assessment that global real politik will ensure that no one can pressurise India that is willing to work with them but not at the cost of surrendering its sovereign options. IOW, if push comes to shove India will test and build up its arsenal and not freeze it to the levels it was in 1998.

Now (a) or (b) will be a function of the vision, belief and world view of the leadership in India. There are some here who believe that the national consensus that is there on position (b), which has stood the test of time and been served well by leadership of various parties and personalities, are not about to be compromised by this administration. There are some who believe that the present leadership in its professed statements, vision, past action are willing to settle for a good trade and hence may go for option (a).

I have already indicated where I think GOI is going. So there is no surprise there. I would be more than happy if my reading is proved wrong on that score. For then India will win.

In the meantime, it would be doing ourselves a great favour by desisting from attacking fellow postors. It serves no purpose except for polishing their ego, in their own minds of course.

shiv
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 07 Sep 2009 18:56

I suggest that the above post by Rajaram should become the first post of a new thread with the same name but version 2


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