Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

John Snow
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby John Snow » 29 Aug 2009 06:41

mav is waiting for your report :mrgreen:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 29 Aug 2009 06:42

Well... I am quite happy if it is Russian nukes that glassify Paki/Cheeni bases.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby munna » 29 Aug 2009 06:43

John Snow wrote:mav is waiting for your report :mrgreen:

Where is this Mav bhai?? :?:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Prem » 29 Aug 2009 06:47

Tripaki ,
Indian can never hope to match the scientific advancement, industrial capacity and high educational institutions of Bakistan so its no surprise Indians are much backward comparing to Baki Educated Nooklear Immaculate Santists.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 29 Aug 2009 06:53

arun wrote:
ldev wrote:Shiv,

Baldev Raj is head of ISGAR at Kalpakkam and ultimately responsible for the 500MWe Fast Breeder Reactor being built. I guess he knows a little bit more than us. :)


The Director of IGCAR is indeed as you say Baldev Raj. See here.

However the article posted by you here in this threadrefers to a Raj Baldev and NOT a Baldev Raj.

Previously Raj Baldev, the “Cosmo Theorist” mentioned in the article you posted had claimed that Stephen Hawking had stolen his idea’s :rotfl: .

The Director of IGCAR, Baldev Raj and the “Cosmo Theorist”,Raj Baldev are different people sharing two separate names that are differently ordered.


Thanks.. :D

That vindicates my initial reaction on reading that ludicrous interview
viewtopic.php?p=726898#p726898

shiv wrote:
I can't help pointing out that Xerox Khan's cronies also speak like this.

More fog AFAICT adding to the growing list of conspiracy theories.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby John Snow » 29 Aug 2009 06:59

Shiv ji>> some spinners perform better on mava picthes

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 29 Aug 2009 07:04

tripathi wrote:Fizzled one was indian design fission devices were russian coz if they too were indian that wud ve been massive H&D blow to india.so just to be on safer side they tested proven russian design :wink:


No in fact 4 of the "proven" Russian designs failed. In one of them - even the conventional explosive did not go off and they fished out and sent it back to Russia.

That is why there are calls to test again and say that deterrence has to be built up from scratch.

As an aside - let me reveal something I have not said on the forum before. In all sixteen tests were attempted. Only three actually went off. The Russian one on May 11 and the conventional explosive of two Indian ones on May 13th.

But I want to make a point here using a very old and true story which some of you may have heard.

A man saw an offer for a Roll Royce being sold for $200 in Jeddah, test drove it and bought it. He then drove it off into the desert - but the car broke down after he had gone 50 miles. Greatly upset he got out and checked under the hood and saw no engine. He then opened the boot and theer was no engine there either. He used his sat-phone to contact the RR company and told them his story and asked how the car went 50 miles without an engine. They replied "Sir, our cars go that far on reputation alone"


So my dear friends - do no feel disheartened. India's deterrence has existed for 11 years on reputation alone - despite all devices being duds. It is never too late. We can start testing now. One advantage of testing duds is that you can test 300 or even 3000 of them and no seismologist will ever know. You can even test them on the surface and it is quite possible that well designed duds have been tested many times.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Hari Seldon » 29 Aug 2009 07:08

John Snow wrote:Shiv ji>> some spinners perform better on mava picthes

:rotfl: :rotfl:
What is this mava pitch, nobel saar? Is it a pitch like karma is a bichh? Just wondering onlee.

Anyway, does seem like KS has not spoken out of turn. Too many events along the border coinciding only.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby symontk » 29 Aug 2009 09:32

No deterrence is broken, only that there is a 10 year itch for the DAE scientists to test. We saw this in 1983 and 1996 which completed in 1998.

This is about going to the next stage with TN. The weapons that we have is equally powerful since it can generate 15KT as demonstrated in 1974 and 1998.

Nothing to worry.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby kasthuri » 29 Aug 2009 09:46

Guys, lets forget testing...latest from MK Narayanan in TOI

Nuclear scientist, K Santhanam says we need to test our thermonuclear weapon again because Pokharan II was a “fizzle”. Is that correct?

It’s untrue. This is a matter that has been examined in great detail. Several measurements have been applied, specific observations have been made. The fact that we had a 45-kiloton successful thermonuclear test is now well proven the world over. We don’t need to carry out another test.


TOI Link: No delink of terror from talks with Pakistan: India

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby pankajs » 29 Aug 2009 09:53

kasthuri wrote:Guys, lets forget testing...latest from MK Narayanan in TOI

The whole controversy was to ensure that the GOI does not sign the CTBT and thus keep the option of testing open for the future. We can live with this statement till the right time comes.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Singha » 29 Aug 2009 10:03

could have relation to timing of chinese incidents in nathu la and unkil not getting his buddy to
back away.
or could be other way around - chinese heard KS and decided to put a shot across out bows.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby John Snow » 29 Aug 2009 11:07

They will never be used, and we dont need to know they work or not, just break a coconut before firing the missile IFF and when required, say Hanuman Chalisa 40 time it will work I am 400%, sure I passed my high school exams like that. :mrgreen: unlike some teen party who can solve multiple integrals, integral equations while walking dogs :rotfl:

The only problem is if the missile with warhead is to be fired from sub we a need a cmpact cabin to break acocnut with out creating any low frequency noice. we can apply RC equation of cancelling waves which will dampen the sonic signature (oh thats why we need rc coupled de amplifiers :wink: )

The probabilty of the missile reaching the zone and the probability of device meeting with expected results is a Bayesian inference.

with 5 Agni tests and 1 H bum test you have enough data...
Its like playing book cricket.. you select your player and randomly open page any page number in the units place > 6 ignore, if zero that player is out, if not continue, in those games my bowlers like Chandrasekhar scored many more centures than Gavaskar or Viswanath :rotfl: :rotfl:

Yes our deterence is not broken, it will not be broken as long as it holds.

I used to get lot of relatives while working for Godrej, they used buy Navtal, Night Latch etc locks and in a low voice ask me do they really work we pay sooo much for these and I used to say they are designe to be "unpickable by gentlemen, crooks can do any thing given time, besides security works till it fails"

Wait and see one day India will launch an amphibian sub which will funtion like a sub in water and a tank (which it is seriously) on land. Multi purpose combat vehicle you see. :mrgreen:
Jai ho

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby arun » 29 Aug 2009 11:26

Given the speed of this thread and that 18 hours have lapsed since this story was put out, apologies in advance if this has been posted before.

Anil Kakodkar disagrees with K. Santhanam:

"Pokhran II tests were a complete success and they achieved 100 per cent desired results."


From here:

PTI

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Raj Malhotra » 29 Aug 2009 11:28

I think there is very simple reason why KS came clean. He & his other equivalent support group/scientists realised that everybody in the world community KNEW that bomb was a fizzle except Indian public. By keeping Indian public in dark, the tainted political community was going to make India a bombless munna which will soon start loosing significant junks of territory to major Geopolitical manupulations.

I think India should re-test and try to involve Israel & vietnam in the testing. off course if Russia also wants to validate some of its old-new designs then nothing like it. If possible test on some third nation soil by offering nuclear technology such as Vietnam. If this does not work out and push comes to shove we should test with Iran!!!!!!!!!!!! on Iranian soil (& give Iran couple of fission nukes as payment) and let the sh*t hit the fan.

re Arun

While I agree with everything else u say, I fail to understand why u keep on insisting on FBF 50-200kt. We have never tested this bomb even once. So on tested parimeters we have Fission bomb 12kt = 150kg and partial TN=FBF=37kt=350kg
Last edited by Raj Malhotra on 29 Aug 2009 12:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby JaiS » 29 Aug 2009 11:56

tripathi wrote:i think india tested russian made bombs in 1998 when its own design failed just to save its H&D. Now thats the intellectual dishonesty from indian scientists :shock:


What is the source of such brilliant thought ?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Arun_S » 29 Aug 2009 12:05

cross posting from nu-clear thread
===========================================================


Quoting in full
28 Aug 2009, 2233 hrs IST, PTI

BANGALORE: Stating that "only strength respects strength" former President A P J Abdul Kalam today said India needs to be a nuclear-weapon state.

"India needs to be a nuclear-weapon state, as other nations are well-equipped and only strength respects strength. Unless we are strong we cannot defend ourselves," he said, while responding to a query by students of Alliance Business School in Chandapur in Anekal taluk near here.

He said "strength and peace go together. Unless we are strong we cannot bring peace."

Kalam enumerated three factors that saved India from the major impact of the global recession - "globalisation was not complete when recession set in, secondly Indian banks are conservative on giving loans and thirdly the saving mentality of Indians."

He highlighted the need for incorporating creative education in primary schools by revamping the syllabus and ensure that teachers encouraged creativity.

Very very important statement from Ex-president Kalam. Note teh words he used.

One who is not, "Needs". IOW India is not a reached the point where it IS a nuclear weapon state. It Needs to be one.

Satya Vachan

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby vera_k » 29 Aug 2009 12:07

Needless controversy over Pokhran-II tests: PM

Looks like the PM intends on continuing down the path to the CTBT.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby pankajs » 29 Aug 2009 12:24

vera_k wrote:Needless controversy over Pokhran-II tests: PM

Looks like the PM intends on continuing down the path to the CTBT.

The PM has lost a little of the Teflon with the SeS deal not only in political circles but also in the public eye. Even the Kangress party and madam let him dry out in the sun for around a week before bringing out the umbrella this time. The signals from the party are conflicting and he may not have the free hand that he was allowed on previous occasions.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Arun_S » 29 Aug 2009 12:35

Raj Malhotra wrote:re Arun

While I agree with everything else u say, I fail to understand why u keep on insisting on FBF 50-200kt. We have never tested this bomb even once. So on tested parimeters we have Fission bomb 12kt = 150kg and partial TN=FBF=37kt=350kg

You see I am only a paan chewing dehati who just knows, and doesn't know the why behind the knowledge ( and I dont not need to).

I try to put package weight (I.e. including RV mass). Very few know how much is the correct estimate of RV mass (so I can fudge the Khans and Changs across the border).

Fission bomb 12kt = 150kg
is extra conservative to shake off detractors.

partial TN=FBF=37kt=350kg.
Partial TN due to RC Low Pass Fizzle (Rhymes with "RC Low Pass Filter" ;) ) was 32-37 kT, but after fixing errors the device will give its military yield of 200 kT. And yes I estimate that warhead will be ~350 kg.

Mastering FBF is like mastering algebra. Mastering TN is like "nonlinear partial differential equations"; The former can be mastered by a 9th grader, the latter requires collage followed by many years of fiddling.

Thus FBF can be easily scaled, and one can reasonably estimate that 100 kt based on 17 kT primary of S1 will weigh ~350 kg. Of course because it is different mechanism, it requires far more fissile material, and heavier compared to TN design of same yield. Based on 11 years of Pentium Sparc computations it is optimistically possible that in 350 kg package they can get bigger oomph (albiet at far bigger fissile material consumption, compared to TN). BTW Deterrence is based on pessimistic numbers and not wishful optimism.

But please do not take a pann chewing Bhayyia too seriously.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Arun_S » 29 Aug 2009 12:46


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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Raja Ram » 29 Aug 2009 12:57

Gentle Readers,
It is also the right time and place for me to bring to your benevolent notice some other facts.

1. India has a Draft Nuclear doctrine as of now. It calls for a triad and is based on NFU as a principle, so by extension calls for a Second Strike capability. Gentle readers ever wondered why it is still a draft? What will it take to become a formal Nuclear policy doctrine?

2. Right after the Shakti series, I had indicated that the emphasis will now shift to perfecting delivery and protection. Some members then would recollect those posts and email exchanges. The delivery systems, related to missiles and submarines have now matured and are being publicly unveiled - one by one slowly.

3. Survivability is key for a second strike posture - naturally a thorough defense system to ensure survival is a must. AAD and PAD are steps that have come through in these years post Shakti. Also some force multipliers have been procured such as AWACS platform to negate the immediate and most reliable delivery platform of our most trigger happy adversary. Coupled with this is the augmentation of space based resources for tracking and watching certain areas of interest. Investments made in radars and long range radars to detect low frequencies and ultra low frequencies have been strengthened

4. Shakti had weapons, weoponisable devices and devices and technologies being tested. Some may have succeded and some may have had glitches. Post Shakti, there has been a lot of work done in improving those. They are now ready to be inducted as weapons? So may be need to be tested.

5. Operationally the services have been preparing to handle the strategic assets. Some operational details are worked out and some command structure initiatives have been launced. Some have succedeed and are ready for full roll out. Protocols on dispersal, controls and deployment will have to be fully operationalised when assets and platforms will be delivered to potential users.

6. Fallout post shakti has been managed, India has broken into the ring as a de facto nuclear power and also accepted opportunities to break down nuclear apartheid. World powers know that it is not going to be possible to get India to roll back. So the attempts have been to freeze and keep the capability recessed and if possible paint it in a less than full strength light. India has been sidestepping these attempts whilst seizing the opportunities. Sometimes it has given away a little too much but has played a good balancing act by and large.

Gentle readers, for the draft to become a full fledged doctrine, the above tracks will have to integrate. Geo political context is always dynamic. There are steps being initiated by some in our neighbourhood and by the larger western world. They are aware of the end of a sole super power era looming ahead. So they would like to limit the advance of other emerging powers in key strategic areas. One such is the need and necessity from their perspective to keep the nuclear club closed for others. In the nuclear club, those who have broken in should be kept as a lesser power.

The above facts and the changing geo political context presents India with an opportunity and a need. The opportunity to become a full fledged declared nuclear weapons state. The need for tests comes from that perspective. Kalam's remark above is an indicator. Santhanam's breaking out seems to be an indicator and a push to sieze the opportunity. It is also a reaction to a need. The pressure on GOI will be enormous, the allurments promised significant and tempting.

If the GOI is indeed playing a master game here, then the statement made by the PM is not in line with those expectations. Will the PM who was quick to grasp the opportunity that the US India nuclear deal represented in terms of breaking out of the nuclear apartheid, grasp this oppoetunity too? Does he want to do that? Or does he want to use this as a bargaining chip to secure significant allurments, in terms of capital, technology and geopolitical posts and positions for India so that economic growth grows unhindered and threats are neutralised through multi lateral action?

If it is the latter, he may settle for the current situation in terms of nuclear doctrine. Draft will remain a draft only. The parts will be ready but never integrated and deterrence value will be established but it will be a distinct lower level compared to the P5. In the class of a pakistan or North Korea.

To put it more in practical terms, the Arihant will be there, but it will have only a 700 KM missile to chuck and what it chucks will not be the big H Bomb but definitely a capable fission or boosted fission device. The services will have their delivery platforms but not the maal in a ready for use fashion. The scientist will have the money to improve and develop new assets and platforms but cannot test them in its entirety.

To give it a historical allegory, India will be a Karna, crowned as King of Anga even, will have all the knowledge and skill to rival mighty Arjuna, but will also carry enough curses to ensure that he is no threat to Arjuna.

That is why I urge all you gentle rakshaks to think through what this really is all about. It is not about if a test "fizzled" or "sizzled". It is about India's soverign options. Santhanam has done his bit to try and ensure that it is maintained. Whether he has done this on his own accord or it is an orchestrated by the GOI, he has done his bit.

What happens next depends on the type of leadership that is shown. One hopes that those who are in the positions of power provide the same. God knows that they are capable and only thing stopping are the shackles in their mind.

Just a ramble. Take it for what it is worth.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Hari Seldon » 29 Aug 2009 13:25

Headlines Today reported just now that the PM weighed in.

Said "Needless controversy being created over Pokhran II. APJ Kalam has already clarified about the tests".

IOW, (moi pessimistic reading between the lines) is no need for further tests and no commitment on staying away from CTBT.

Anyway, situ is still evolving. Wait n watch.

Added later:
Row over Pokhran-II needless: Manmohan

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Shankar » 29 Aug 2009 14:15

You see I am only a paan chewing dehati who just knows, and doesn't know the why behind the knowledge ( and I dont not need to).


Arun you are modest to the point of being hilarious

Headlines Today reported just now that the PM weighed in.

Said "Needless controversy being created over Pokhran II. APJ Kalam has already clarified about the tests".


once again we are treading towards the path of self designated military oblivion -cry my dear country

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Shankar » 29 Aug 2009 14:20

APJ Kalam has already clarified about the tests".


with all due respect to the prime minister sir - may I ask based on what APJ is qualified to make an assessment of a thermonuclear test

-is he a nuclear scientist
-has he any experience of making any nuclear weapons
- has he got any formal education on nuclear science or for that matter any thing remotely connected with nuclear fusion or fission

as the whole world knows he is a brilliant rocket scientist -but his hogging the limelight at POK2 was itself unwarranted -his low key support for the nuclear deal surely not wanted and now this

what our country is coming to

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 29 Aug 2009 14:45

Arun_S wrote:Very very important statement from Ex-president Kalam. Note teh words he used.

One who is not, "Needs". IOW India is not a reached the point where it IS a nuclear weapon state. It Needs to be one.

Satya Vachan


Arun - there is an even worse interpretation than yours. You have made the "good" one where India "needs to be" and may be heading that way.

The "worse" interpretation is that the GoI may be trying to take India in the opposite direction - i.e. away from being a nuclear weapon state and Kalamji is saying "No No No - don't do that. India needs to be a weapon state"

In short:

If India is not a NW state today (as you are implying), then Kalam is saying India needs to be one

But if India is already a nuclear weapons state (as Vajpayee said, and as everyone else thinks) and someone is trying to reverse that by CTBT, FMCT and roll-back and accepting firangi dictates and promises then Kalam's statement becomes even more serious. He is, in effect, saying "Please let India continue to be an NWS. It needs to be one. Do not reverse that"

Your view may be too optimistic.

JMT

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby dinesha » 29 Aug 2009 14:54

Looks like our country’s nuclear arsenal and deterrence is based on verbal assessment and certification by Dr. Kalam. No scientific verification and review is required.

Dr. Kalam sorry but looks like you are royally scre**d. Grande' - Bali Ka Bakra.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RajeshA » 29 Aug 2009 15:05

Arun_S wrote:


Quoting in full

"India needs to be a nuclear-weapon state

Very very important statement from Ex-president Kalam. Note the words he used.

One who has not, "Needs". IOW India is not a reached the point where it IS a nuclear weapon state. It Needs to be one.

Satya Vachan

Arun_S ji,
I am all for more testing, so don't take me wrong, but from PoV of semantics

"to be" can be interpreted both ways, as "to become" or "to remain", as it merely refers to an imperative, but it does not say whether the imperative has been heeded to or will have to be heeded in the future.

So "India needs to be a nuclear-weapon state" can be interpreted as "India needs to be a nuclear-weapon state, and that is why we have deployed nuclear-weapons", ie. "India needs to remain a nuclear-weapon state".

It can of course also mean, that "India needs to become a nuclear-weapon state", as you have implied.

Only a further thesis on how President APJ Kalam uses the verb "to be" can clarify all lingering doubts. :wink:

Just playing with semantics.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby amit » 29 Aug 2009 15:13

Shankar taking you reasoning on Abdul Kalam one step further, are you trying to say rocket experts are absolutely clueless about Nuclear bombs and technology?

Also is K Santhanam a qualified nuclear scientist?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby amit » 29 Aug 2009 15:21

dinesha wrote:Looks like our country’s nuclear arsenal and deterrence is based on verbal assessment and certification by Dr. Kalam. No scientific verification and review is required.


Whose assessment would make you sleep soundly at night Dinesha?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby JwalaMukhi » 29 Aug 2009 15:21

Apologies if posted earlier.
http://news.rediff.com/interview/2009/a ... uccess.htm
Is there any chance you want to change your stand?

No. Why should I change my stand? I will always stand by what I have said and there is no question of changing my stand or my statement.

Even the expert opinion from across the world makes it clear that the yield in the thermonuclear device test was much lower than what was claimed.

I have maintained and will always maintain that the test was not more than 60 per cent successful in terms of the yield it generated. I have made this assessment based on the report of the instrumentation data that is available and also the programme coordinator.

Former President A P J Abdul Kalam, who was also involved with the tests, has said that Pokhran II was entirely successful.

I would like to react to that. First of all, Dr Kalam is not a nuclear scientist. He is a missile scientist and he was not present there at that time. He is blissfully ignorant of the facts. Do I need to say more?

All I want to say is that I stand my ground on this issue.

Home Minister P Chidambaram [ Images ] too has shared Kalam's view.

Chidambaram, being part of the establishment, is just repeating what the others are saying, like a parrot.

You have been accused of making this statement after over a decade at the insistence of people against the Bharatiya Janata Party [ Images ].

Let people say what they want. As I maintained I thought that the timing was right and hence this statement was made. I was not provoked or coaxed by anyone to issue such a statement and let me assure you that there is no malice involved in this

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 29 Aug 2009 15:37

That's it! The :idea: has finally gone on in my musharraf where I keep my brain. This thread on the BRDF has finally illuminated me, and my Sources Who Spoke On Condition of Anonymity Because They Are Not Authorized to Speak To Me, But Do Anyways said:

1. India's 1998 "tests" were actually an earthquake as originally reported by Bheshtern Experts. There were NO nuclear explosions.

2. There were 36 Russian nuclear bombs (who were on a Cultural Visit from Russia to India - they send those around the world five times a year) ATTEMPTED to be tested at Pokhran, which is actually in Balochistan. None worked. This is because Russia has no deterrent either.

3. India's Top Scientists, DRDO directors, BARC directors, etc. etc. are all liars and con-men. They lied then, they lie now, they will lie in future.

4. But these are all Harishchandras compared to the elected leaders of India: The Prime Minister is a foreign agent of the US, the Prime Minister's Boss is a foreign agent of Italy, Soviet Union, the Vatican, China and Madagascar. The Defense Minister is an agent of Jubilee Mission Conversionists Inc. - and of the Chinese Communist Party.

5. That's OK because the Voters of India - with the exception of several postors at BRDF - are all fools and traitors.

6. The Official Secrets Act in India is a joke. People sign it, then they just go out and use Classified information to confirm or deny whatever rumors might be out there. This is fine, because the defense counter-intelligence people are also agents of the West and China and Pakistan. So no one gets prosecuted for revealing Classified Info, it's all like the dramas we see enacted wherever Indian families are seen, with the unruly brats running around and completely ignoring their mothers' half-hearted pleas to sit down and shut up. These brats, when they were much younger and even less disciplined, were BRDF postors, experts on nuclear physics and strategic matters. These must be the Einsteins you see at every Indian airport, killing each other at Baggage Claim because they all have to push their damn carts right up to the carousel, with their cellphones stuck between their ears.

7. Only Pakistan has nuclear technology, thanks to Dr. Abdul Xerox Khan.

8. The Chagai blasts by Pakistan were the first time any nation demonstrated functioning nuclear weapons. The technology is completely unknown to Indians.

9. The Prime Minister ran off secretly to Reno and signed the CTBT and NPT with the S-o-S already. As a non-nuclear weapon state. This is why Pres. Abdul Kalam says India NEEDS to be a nuclear weapon state.

10. Although most of this stuff is Classified, all I have to do is come here and read it because the postors on BRF have Sources that are not subject to any laws, discipline etc - just like the postors themselves.

11. So Pakistan is the only place to be. A Real Nuclear Weapon State. Run by Real Mards. With Real Universities. LMU!!!!

Raja Ram
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Raja Ram » 29 Aug 2009 15:47

narayanan,

I am not able to understand what is the point that is being made in the post made by you. Other than the obvious sarcasm, is there something else you are stating sir?

Please do not misunderstand my post, but I am genuinely not able to understand what is the point being made.

geeth
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby geeth » 29 Aug 2009 15:48

Why is R.Chidambaram not retiring, even 11 years after the so called 'fizzle' Bum?

Is it to keep the 'fizzle' lid firmly intact till his death?

I can understand a guy getting one or two extensions....but this is like the bhooth protecting the 'nakli' maal..

Where do we go from here...I mean, with a PM like this, do anyone realistically think we can detonate another bum?

Why is it that people say no further tests are required? IMO, even with a successful bum blast, we need more tests to perfect the design. Where is the doubt?

Do not sign the CTBT or anything else. Remove the PM if he shows N-Clear deal like tendencies.

JwalaMukhi
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby JwalaMukhi » 29 Aug 2009 15:53

narayanan wrote:9. The Prime Minister ran off secretly to Reno and signed the CTBT and NPT with the S-o-S already. As a non-nuclear weapon state. This is why Pres. Abdul Kalam says India NEEDS to be a nuclear weapon state.

11. So Pakistan is the only place to be. A Real Nuclear Weapon State. Run by Real Mards. With Real Universities. LMU!!!!

LMU education demands that you cannot trust any bania SDREs. Even the Prime Minister quoted after the famous amrikhan "Trust but verify". Although trust in the capability of PM to travel to Reno, it will be prudent, if it is 400% (LMU education) verified that India actually is non-nuclear weapon state. Can trust those anonymous bania sources, but always need to verify per LMU and PM educational techniques.

shiv
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Pokhran II 100% successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 29 Aug 2009 16:14

http://www.ptinews.com/news/253135_Pokh ... --Kakodkar

Pokhran-II achieved 100 per cent desired results: Kakodkar

STAFF WRITER 17:6 HRS IST
Indore, Aug 28 (PTI) Dismissing a top nuclear scientist's contention that Pokharan II was not a complete success, Atomic Energy Commission chief Anil Kakodkar today said the tests in 1998 achieved "100 per cent desired results".

Speaking at a function organised by the Raja Ramanna Centre for Advanced Technology here, Kakodkar said, "Pokhran II tests were a complete success and they achieved 100 per cent desired results."


I find this news credible because my mind works that way :P



But it doesn't make news does it?

It does not help if you are not stirring up people's deepest fears.

IB4TL

shiv
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Re: Pokhran II 100% succesful: scientist

Postby shiv » 29 Aug 2009 16:16

PS: Check out Chinese nuclear tests

http://www.nti.org/db/china/testlist.htm

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 29 Aug 2009 16:18

Please do not misunderstand my post, but I am genuinely not able to understand what is the point being made.


My point, which I made already to hordes of Experts here, is that people like Dr. KS, who have signed off their lives and freedom of speech when they got top-level Security Clearances, do not shoot off their mouths revealing information that is still Classified.

They will do nothing to confirm or deny any rumors, speculations, NPA declarations, goading, taunts, suggestions or anything else. They are very clearly aware that their lives are over otherwise.


Once you take this elementary fact into account, it is obvious that Dr. KS' statement is carefuly tailored to achieve a certain effect in the public media and make a foreign policy statement. In other words, it cannot, by definition, have anything to do with what he knows of the data and results from the Classified tests. (I would bold-face and italicize and capitalize that, but some postors here are highly offended to have their ranting countered by simple facts, and they become very uncomfortable to actually have to see such facts).

This is so blindingly obvious that so many of our postors are blinded and cannot accept it. To accept it, would destroy their purpose for being here, viz, to condemn the elected government of India as traitors, and express their disgust at the whole world because it refuses to accept the superiority of their way of thinking, and their whatever else. Throwing tantrums, to put it briefly.

The other people who have spoken, are of course just repeating the official line on the results. That does not make them more credible - by definition, they cannot confirm or deny anything out there using knowledge from Classified sources. They can only state what has been DeClassified - or what they are authorized by law to state. Same as Dr. KS.

So what can be gathered from this debate about the actual results of the POK-2 tests? Nothing at all. Those results are Classified. That means that no one who knows (and is on the Indian side) is going to reveal anything about those data. No matter how much you or I goad them or taunt them to do so. (If they don't have this discipline, then I think they should/would be in jail or long-since fired and/or had their pensions cancelled). They would not be invited to closed gatherings where Indian Policy positions would be discussed with foreign media and representatives. I could give examples here of what we have heard first-hand on BRF, of what happens when you fall foul of the defense security establishment in India, but I don't want to hurt readers.

All of the above is obvious. Then - I mean, given that it was not revealing anything about the 1998 tests - what was the point of KS' statements? Why now? Why those precise words? Why the tamasha of emphasis and denial? Why did KS describe AK in the unfavorable terms that he is reported to have used in the REDIFF interview? Why did AK even say anything?

As for Dr. PKI and BK, sorry, since I read their rant article during the NewClear Debate and saw the very obvious misrepresentations, I do not place credence on what they write. If one can subordinate the national interest to party loyalties, then one should have no credibility in strategic discussions. IOW, I've "got them calibrated" in my mind. It is sadly better to depend on the writings of foreigners who are ignorant, than of "experts" who are biased.

This is the only valid subject for intelligent debate on this thread. The rest is just repetitive ranting of the type that I describe as "EB".

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby dinesha » 29 Aug 2009 16:22

Mr. Amit,
You see our Hon’ble PM says “I believe Kalam’s word”... rather than “XYZ of DAE has done data analysis from such and such data points, and the blast intensity and tonnage has been sufficiently verified scientifically.”

His statement reflects, either absence of scientific evaluation (worst case) or our PM has not seen the report..(best case)

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Re: Pokhran II 100% successful: Scientist

Postby Mahendra » 29 Aug 2009 16:25

Sorry Shivji

LMU is not satisfied with 100% rejalts, nothing less than 400% is acceptable

In and Out before rona-dhona, visa stamping and summary executions begin


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