Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Arun_S
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Arun_S » 30 Aug 2009 07:31

abhiti wrote:I am disappointed at the state of mind of so called "top Indian scientists". Someone explain to me which weapon in the world has ever been declared full functional with just ONE test.

Of course R.Chidambrum's TN Fizzle bum worked exactly 100%.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Gerard » 30 Aug 2009 07:33

abhiti wrote:I am disappointed at the state of mind of so called "top Indian scientists". Someone explain to me which weapon in the world has ever been declared full functional with just ONE test.


"Fat Man"

Used on Nagasaki after one test (Trinity) in the New Mexico desert.

Ended World War 2 IIRC

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Aug 2009 07:34

Doubt, with reason is healthy. There is reason, the lack of physical evidence. It is raised by equally respected individuals. The doubt is not on their personal integrity, for there is no good reason for that.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 07:35

Arun_S wrote:Of course R.Chidambrum's TN Fizzle bum worked exactly 100%.


Arun - having faced the dilemma that forum admins face I am requesing you not to deliberately misspell Chidambaram's name.

The reason is that you are setting a precedent whereby another forum member can do the same with someone else's name. And unless someone points this out to you as webmaster, it will be unfair to warn or discipline a forum member who does that.

Your views about Chidambaram are well known. You do not need to do this spelling tamasha. I think you owe it to Bharat-Rakshak to control yourself. Thanks.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby csharma » 30 Aug 2009 07:38

One way to resolve the problem would be that BARC shows the classified data/analysis to Santhanam and Iyengar.
Since they were part of the establishment, I presume there would be no breach of security.

Once they see the data, may be they will change the mind if the data is as conclusive as it is claimed.

This approach won't be require a new test. NSA has said that world over people recognize that India has a TN bomb.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Aug 2009 07:41

csharma wrote:One way to resolve the problem would be that BARC shows the classified data/analysis to Santhanam and Iyengar.
Highly doubtful that KS has not seen all there is to see.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby RajeshA » 30 Aug 2009 07:44

Is there something called user-testing in nuclear weapons?

Would IA undertake user-trials?

If user-trials are indeed the norm in other countries, why is Indian Strategic Command not being allowed to carry these out?

It is not like we are 'occupying' new territories. We are allowing the natural expansion of settlements onlee!

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby csharma » 30 Aug 2009 07:47

I thought that the radiological(?) data was not shared with KS.

From my understanding there is seismic data and the radioactivity data.
As the test director from DRDO, may be his job was done when the tests were conducted. He had his doubts based on seismic data which he was reponsible for.

It could be that KS was not in the loop when BARC was doing the analysis of the radioactivity data. Kalam would have been in the loop.

All of this is my conjecture based on the media reports.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby vera_k » 30 Aug 2009 07:48

Gerard wrote:Are Kakodkar and Sikka somehow less patriotic than the members here?

I assume most BRFites wish to see a powerful India, one armed with nuclear weapons that deter potential adversaries. Nuclear weapons that are as 'state of the art' as possible.

Why this assumption that the men who designed and built India's nuclear weapons would put their own interests above that of their country? Why this assumption that they would prefer to mislead one billion of their countrymen by massaging data?


Perhaps I should have phrased it better. I was trying to say that there is a risk they would see what they set out to see, not what actually happened. It does not require any intentional wrongdoing for this.

I have edited my earlier post to match the language in this one.
Last edited by vera_k on 30 Aug 2009 07:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Arun_S » 30 Aug 2009 07:48

shiv wrote:When I was in the UK - used to detect mild racism in the way people deliberately mauled and massacred names. This is a valid way of taking a personal pot shot at a person you dislike.

Neither forum members nor admins nor webmasters should be guilty of doing that. I believe that ArunS needs to stop deliberately misspelling Chidambaram's name. He is setting a precedent that makes it easy for another sufficiently motivated and scheming forum member to change the same name or another name into a word that mocks (eg: Chi-dumb-rum).

You are wrong if you think I deliberately misspelling Chidambaram's name. I am not from South and the special nuanced pronunciation of Chidambaram does not come as naturally to me, as some of my south Indian brothers. I do not like to twist people's name (If you recall Jasso .... etc) and consciously avoid falling for it. Till you pointed out I did not even think of the depraved mock you mentioned (eg: Chi-dumb-rum).

I will try to give better attention to the spelling of Chidambaram (oshhhh I spelled it right this time) ;)

============ Added later ===========
I am also amazed that it took a forum heavy weight to point out my repeated spelling mistake in spelling 'Chidambaram'. I would have expected even a newbie on this forum to point that out.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby arun » 30 Aug 2009 07:49

vera_k wrote:
arun wrote:Excerpt from an interview of Dr. S.K. Sikka by India Today's, Raj Chengappa. ..........................

Indiia Today


There is a comment on the ACW blog that contradicts Dr. Sikka's version.

I got into a huge pissing match with the Indians on this issue as I was the principal author of Barker et. al. 1998 which had the yield estimates far below the Indian press releases. A number of Indian scientists tried to submit a comment to Science rebutting our analysis. We asked them to provide the in-country seismic data on which they based their analysis, but they refused. Luckily, in the end, their comment was rejected and never published.


Thanks Vera. Interesting find.

Phew ............. this thread moves.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Aug 2009 07:49

RajeshA: Unfortunately, field tests by IA of nuclear weapons will have to go west of Pokhran 8)

But, seriously, do not think "civilized" countries do such a thing. There is an instance where in Mao's china a live nuclear missile flew across china to explode a weapon in Xinjiang. A test w/o a warhead did fail before the live one :shock:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shaardula » 30 Aug 2009 07:54

vera_k wrote:Isn't there a serious problem with the way the 1998 tests were conducted? How can Kakodkar and Sikka be tasked with taking the measurements when they built the device? These people would be biased towards fitting the results to the design they built.


hello vera saar. on what are you basing this? on your vast knowledge of how science is done or on your assumption that these things are done like how PWD builds sewage tanks. i dunno anything about this, but the accusation you are making is either very serious or too callous and you should you clearly state your assumptions, so that some third entity can verify your claim.
Last edited by shaardula on 30 Aug 2009 08:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby negi » 30 Aug 2009 07:54

Afaik with LTBT in place there cannot be a real user testing simulating real world scenario unlike conventional weapons tests IN ONE COMPLETE FIELD TRIAL .

The only thing which might be validated is the reliability of the weapons stockpile.And at the end of the day a nuke test is a nuke test.. as far as Global repercussions are concerned.
Last edited by negi on 30 Aug 2009 07:57, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Aug 2009 07:56

The range of some of some of the values of the Chinese bomb tests often span up to 400% of the lower limit. 500% in the case of test #45.

2000% in the case of test 38.

http://www.nti.org/db/china/testlist.htm


This has serious implications for seismometry whether one is in London or Nevada. Actually one would need a convincing explanation of the discrminant utility of such an imprecise and likely inaccurate technique. It detracts nothing from Indian claims.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby vera_k » 30 Aug 2009 08:02

shaardula wrote:hello vera saar. on what are you basing this? on your vast knowledge of how science is done or on your assumption that these things are done like how PWD builds sewage tanks. i dunno anything about this, but the accusation you are making is either very serious or too callous.


I edited my post so it does not have the allegation. Should have realised how it would come out :oops:.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby abhiti » 30 Aug 2009 08:04

Gerard wrote:"Fat Man" Used on Nagasaki after one test (Trinity) in the New Mexico desert. Ended World War 2 IIRC


If PRC attacks India with nuke weapons this month, I will 100% agree with you and "top scientists" that we should use bum as-is and not wait for further tests. But if that is not the case then would you be willing to concede that we need to test the bum further?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Aug 2009 08:08

Actually vera-k your post was prescient, all natural science workers recognise the possibility of systemic bias. It is only the good ones who do not exempt themselves.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Raja Ram » 30 Aug 2009 08:28

Gentle readers,

There are basically four view tracks on two issues here on this thread.

1. "Fizzle ya Sizzle" - Viewpoint 1 it was a fizzle and Santy's remarks is a confirmation, View point2 No one can say that because for Santy and co, there are others equally from the inner circle stating it was a sizzle. Both camps have done enough to establish credibility.

2. Why did Santy say what he did now? - Viewpoint 1 - He has done it at the behest of GOI to send a message to the US and co as well as China and co that don't press us, we can resume testing and progress further and View point 2 - Santy is issuing this call now because he fears that the GOI maybe interested in giving in to pressure and settling for a second rung nuclear power status in exchange for allurements that may be offered for signing up to four letter deals. MMS and co may be prepared to do that.

The first viewpoint debate is just not going to go anywhere, because it is ultimately a matter of faith! It can continue in this forum and thread. The only certainty in discussing that is will be mocking and name calling and bad blood between otherwise reasonable and decent people.

The second issue debate can be something that can be monitored by action on the ground. In my own way, I have tried to present arguments for both the viewpoints related to that, and also given some markers that will indicate which one of the viewpoints is more likely to be true. IMHO, this is the main issue that needs to be addressed and not fizzle ya sizzle.

Lastly, there are indications that this thread will be made to deteriorate because the second issue is something some are not comfortable debating and the first issue has inbuilt explosive material.

Everyone has biases, including those claiming intellectual superiority of being the only ones who can see through the most obvious things exclusively; people tend to see what they want to see. I too have my biases, but I have made an attempt to see the other side and acknowledge that there could be some truth in the other viewpoint. This is in essence the way a constructive debate should be had. People who have read about tarka shastra would also acknowledge that is the Indian way.

My appeal here is therefore is for cooling down and making your case without mocking others or resorting to sarcasm. Also to those who are charged with the responsibility of moderating. Please do so impartially. Some are given more leeway because of their status or record or contribution. It is no use lamenting as to why others are not pointing out mistakes and only some heavyweights are doing. Others are not entertained.

I also find it hard to believe that spellings of people like Chidambaram are difficult. There are enough publications and news item cited by all here to get it right.

I have said what I wanted to say. I really mean no offence to anyone nor accusing anything. This is just an honest view to save this thread and also having a meaningful debate in the best traditions of BR. We did discuss far more divisive issues in the past without rancour. This is a call to get back to that level

Thanks in advance.

p.s. Gentle readers, please re-read my posts once again more calmly. There are a lot of things there that is left unsaid but can be inferred.
Last edited by Raja Ram on 30 Aug 2009 09:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 30 Aug 2009 08:35

OK, some people here seem to have a real problem because I have been poking their ego balloons: Here is Shaurya's latest:

Here are some examples from this page from N^3 posts.
Quote:
Glad to hear that you think, but I wonder, did you bother to read my detailed and careful response to Raja ram's query? Seemed to satisfy him... though of course not the likes of Sanku.

Quote:
Yes, I did open the Arihant Poll to show how silly the chicken-little ranting here is, with postors who are too lazy to do elementary thinking, and political hacks who will start ranting with or without any excuse like Energizer Bunnies, (and I made my point very effectively, thank u) so again, I am delighted to hear that you are an exception to that - you THINK!!! Awesome! Now if you could also please READ...


The guy quoted a QUESTION from someone to me, and cited that as proof that I was out to DERAIL the thread and also expressed his whine that I had opened a thread to poke fun at the ranting on this thread - but failed to note that I had answered the question promptly and in detail, and the question-poser professed satisfaction at the answer. OK, so there are two choices:
1. The guy who claimed I was derailing the thread is a damn liar.
2. He is merely reading-challenged.

I took the kinder view. You have to be over 11 to be on the internet, and then there is no excuse for doing what this guy did. Now Shaurya cites my decision to NOT call the guy a liar, by saying that I am "mocking" him. Well, "mocking" is better than calling someone a liar. There are no other options. You DO have to be a bit careful when you post. What's so hard to understand about that?

As for the Arihant-is-made-of-plastic thread, I opened that as a separate thread instead of discussing it here precisely because I didn't want to derail the thread. As it turned out, nearly all postors clicked on the url to see the rumor about the nuclear submarine being made of plastic, but we all had a good laugh on the thread, until some d1ckhead who had nothing to contribute, came in :(( :(( :(( that "moderators" were being allowed to start threads, but if he started it, it would get deleted.

Well... someone gratuitously deleted my thread with no warning and no particular reason other than perhaps a RamRajya sense of overblown "correctness". Figures. But did you hear me whining about that?

- Assuming one's own views to be superior and those you disagree with to be one of chicken heads is best reserved for a professors class room and not a discussion forum


Stating facts and pointing out that those facts should be obvious, is not "assuming one's views to be superior". Do you post here because you know your views are inferior, perhaps? Far be it from me to disagree that they are...
- Simple rules of etiquette, such as would you say it this way to someone sitting face to face with you should be kept in mind.


Yes. Of course I would, thank you very much, and I don't believe that anyone who takes offence at that has any business being out in public. Please note: Unlike you and several other postors here always out to give gratuitous pompous advice, I post in my real name. Since I don't post with any political bias or ill feeling, I state what I see. The trouble, my friend, is that you guys hide behind bogus names and still take your pompous selves way too seriously, and then get your undies in a knot when you find your false logic exposed - and rightly ridiculed.

You have no hesitation, hain, in attributing the worst motives to people who have been elected to public service, or who serve the nation in high offices all their lives. You attribute treachery, disloyalty, stupidity, cowardice, corruption, all to these people, freely handing out abuse. You see conspiracy in every action of the elected government, and have nothing but hateful contempt for the leaders who kept India united and brought us up from famine basket-case to being a respected borderline-superpower in 60 years flat. Don't you think that comes across as completely unwarranted superiority complex? IOW, as rank STUPIDITY? I mean, if you were 5 years old it might be considered cute, but someone old enough to post on the internet?

When your arguments are exposed for the garbage that they are, well, you can't take it and you :(( :(( :(( like the Kaveri Engine on Supercruise. Don't you think people might find this to be a bit tiresome? What's wrong with ridiculing people like you? You sure EARN it!

If you can't take honest answers and logic, stick to political hack discussions with your followers. I am getting awfully tired of the non-stop whining from you and Sanku in particular. Have you never been to kindergarten, or had to play team sports? Grew up as momma's darlings, perhaps, with no one every laughing at your pompous nonsense and pricking your balloon, hain?

Welcome to BRF. Enjoy! If your pomposity does not permit you to accept the give-and-take of discussions without constantly :(( :(( :(( , like I said, stick to political hack sessions where they all nod in unison and do saashtang-pranaam before your abuse against national leaders.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Aug 2009 08:57

narayanan: Are you done? For I sense it would be unfruitful to respond. As usual, you are hiding behind your sense of righteousness and not listening. Good Luck.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby arun » 30 Aug 2009 08:59

Former AEC Chairman P.K.Iyengar.

Quoted by the BBC :

“If India wants to declare itself as a nuclear power and confirm to the military that you have all the means of designing a thermo-nuclear device which can go into a missile, which can be dropped from an aircraft or can be launched from a submarine, you need many more tests”


Quoted by DNA :

"What is so sacrosanct about Abdul Kalam? Even Einstein made mistakes. Before the scientists on the site called New Delhi to confirm the tests, they should have checked the yield of the thermo-nuclear bomb with the seismic centre in London, with which India has a co-operation agreement. Dr Kalam did not check and doubts about the yield were there after the tests.''

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Austin » 30 Aug 2009 09:10

arun wrote:Former AEC Chairman P.K.Iyengar.

"What is so sacrosanct about Abdul Kalam? Even Einstein made mistakes.


PKI must be crazy to question Abdul Kalam , doesn't he know Kalam is Lord thy God , how can he ever go wrong , Einstein is just another human , intelligent though but with all its flaws.

If Kalam says it worked , then it works
Last edited by Austin on 30 Aug 2009 09:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:10

Arun_S wrote:You are wrong if you think I deliberately misspelling Chidambaram's name. I am not from South and the special nuanced pronunciation of Chidambaram does not come as naturally to me, .


Arun - your work for BR indicates that you have a degree of knowledge and intelligence that people respect.

Please do not make this pathetic excuse because this excuse can be used to question your ability and judgement. If you can use the fact that you are not South Indian to misspell a name perhaps you are making many other mistakes and will have similar lame excuses to pass them off? "I am not a nuclear scientist - therefore I can be excused for misjudging the truth" is one such example.

So please..

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:15

sanjaykumar wrote:The range of some of some of the values of the Chinese bomb tests often span up to 400% of the lower limit. 500% in the case of test #45.

2000% in the case of test 38.

http://www.nti.org/db/china/testlist.htm


This has serious implications for seismometry whether one is in London or Nevada. Actually one would need a convincing explanation of the discrminant utility of such an imprecise and likely inaccurate technique. It detracts nothing from Indian claims.



Apart from seismometry - just see how many of them were atmospheric and see how it is next to impossible to measure yields unless you are on the spot when the explosion occurs and there soon after to collect samples.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Anant » 30 Aug 2009 09:17

I must say that this recent news did not take me by surprise. I am a long time BR Lurker (over ten years) but by no means a guru etc. Here are my candid observations.

1) The coded language of some posts has become so convoluted that, for lay people such as myself, it is gobbledeegook and makes no sense to me. Perhaps, all of you use it because it is the lingua franca of this forum, or to confuse google search engines or to discuss perhaps semi classified conjecture that you don't want others to know about. My personal take it is that it makes it very tough to understand otherwise lucid viewpoints but hey that's just me.

2) As a scientist, I understand the power of repetition in reliability of data and confidence in the analysis of variables involved. Even if an experiment works as designed, no one in my lab would call it a day after one success. The fact that it has to be repeated and moreover, validated by peer review is the key to any scientific experiment. Of course, classified topics have greater constraints in the free flow of information but trust me, there are many in any given field, classified or not, that can make heads and tails of data that is gleaned, either through released papers or humint or whatever other source. And until and unless those people (you can guess who) believe you, they'll call your bluff in one way or another. If you want to keep your success a trade secret, fine, but you have approximately a billion people who are dependent on your veracity. If you lie, they die (literally). That is a guilt trip that I would think would make anyone cringe. Perhaps, you need a whistleblower to come to light who can't take it anymore.

3) Objective data analysis. Since I have lurked on this forum for so long, I have trusted a few "gurus" as you like to call them. The one consistent "guru" that I trust as far as the nuclear and missile issue goes is Arun S. While I am not here to canonize him, I like the fact that his analysis is a purely "nuclear" one not coded in linguistics or secret Bharat Rakshak Code. He has flatly stated that the data doesn't match the stated conclusions and has provided anecdotal evidence to further his viewpoint. In this context, I wish to state that anecdotal does not mean impertinent; rather, he has held on to his view staunchly showing why something cannot work as advertised based on physics. Science doesn't lie; people do.

Ultimately, it is upon the Indian government to protect its people regardless of pressures, internal or external or its anglo(white)philic state. I find it laughable that the biggest deterrent India possesses (thermo nuclear bombs) haven't been tested and re-tested until people are blue in the face. Until and unless this happens, whatever conjecture you draw upon suggests to me at least, that part of the test was a fizzle.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby enqyoob » 30 Aug 2009 09:20

Dr. PKI, quoted:

they should have checked the yield of the thermo-nuclear bomb with the seismic centre in London, with which India has a co-operation agreement. Dr Kalam did not check and doubts about the yield were there after the tests.''


Oh! Must be something like this?

Allo! London! Thij eej Pokhran shpeaking. What? No, not OKRA, POKHRAN, in Rajasthan, India. We are checking to see what your seismograph is reading, yaar! We have just done nyookular bum, u c... What? No, not EARTHQUAKE, but THERMONUCLEAR BUM! Can you pls kindly tell us if it was 25kT or 45kT? We need the answer b4 calling our Prime Minister! What? Yes, yes, yaar, we will hold while you call YOUR Prime Minister.. (20 minutes later) Oh? You have put Sanctions? The Cooperation Agreement is off? Can I get visa yaar? Oh! I see... Tell the Queen to check under her throne - there may be a Pakistani mouse there.. break a leg, what-what, old boy!

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby negi » 30 Aug 2009 09:21

:rotfl: .... :twisted: ...45kT it waj.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:29

Anant wrote:
Ultimately, it is upon the Indian government to protect its people regardless of pressures, internal or external or its anglo(white)philic state. I find it laughable that the biggest deterrent India possesses (thermo nuclear bombs) haven't been tested and re-tested until people are blue in the face. Until and unless this happens, whatever conjecture you draw upon suggests to me at least, that part of the test was a fizzle.



This I agree with.

But I suspect that we are more dependent on the goodness of our Western friends that many people are willing to admit.

China broke away from that dependence early and allowed itself to "go down" for a bit before it rose like a mushroom cloud. But other nations who opposed "our Western freinds" did not do so well. The examples of Vietnam, NoKo and Iraq come to mind.

However those who kowtowed to the West seem to do OK- and these include japan and South Korea and surprise surprise - Pakistan.

India is in a limbo - it is neither China nor Japan.

We have to chart our own route and I think it is worth looking at how India is being tied down by the West and is forced to swallow nationalist ego and remain tied down because of vulnerabilities that we do not like to admit.

I believe there we have a tendency to celebrate "greatness and strength" shown by India and denigrate those who do not help to do that. But we have never ever honestly debated our vulnerabilities other than those based on religion. There are, IMO other non religious, strategic vulnerabilities which allow the West to have a firm hold on our testimonials. I am willing to be told why I am wrong - but we have never bothered to accept and discus that.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:32

Is there any publicly known evidence that "masking" of yields by suitable seismic decoupling was done or not done by India or anyone else for their underground tests?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Sriman » 30 Aug 2009 09:37

Gerard wrote:
abhiti wrote:I am disappointed at the state of mind of so called "top Indian scientists". Someone explain to me which weapon in the world has ever been declared full functional with just ONE test.


"Fat Man"

Used on Nagasaki after one test (Trinity) in the New Mexico desert.

Ended World War 2 IIRC

The design of 'Little Boy' dropped on Hiroshima wasn't tested at all IIRC.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Prem » 30 Aug 2009 09:38

Shiv Ji onlee vulnerability is economic, remove this and there is no stopping . Unfortunately it cant be done on fast track basis. Just imagining if we could have those Swiss Banked Trillion and Quarter $ in house ,bet there will be many visiting Delhi doing salam. We have no one to blame but ourself, leeders and all.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby Santosh » 30 Aug 2009 09:40

Gerard wrote:
vera_k wrote:How can Kakodkar and Sikka be tasked with taking the measurements when they built the device? These people would be biased towards fitting the results to the design they built.


Are Kakodkar and Sikka somehow less patriotic than the members here?

I assume most BRFites wish to see a powerful India, one armed with nuclear weapons that deter potential adversaries. Nuclear weapons that are as 'state of the art' as possible.

Why this assumption that the men who designed and built India's nuclear weapons would put their own interests above that of their country? Why this assumption that they would prefer to mislead one billion of their countrymen by massaging data?

Gerard ji, should the validation of Indian TN weapon be based on the patriotism of the gentlemen who designed those weapons? I would think that the Indian TN weapon should be proven beyond any doubt from any quarter. Till then the best we have is the best we have proven.
Last edited by Santosh on 30 Aug 2009 09:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby abhiti » 30 Aug 2009 09:40

shiv wrote:Please do not make this pathetic excuse because this excuse can be used to question your ability and judgement.


What's big deal in the name? I will much rather talk about judgement of current and former AEC chief, current and former NSA, even current and former PM i.e. MMS and Vajpayee. What were they thinking when they trusted one weapon test is enough crowd?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:46

Raja Ram wrote:The first viewpoint debate is just not going to go anywhere, because it is ultimately a matter of faith! It can continue in this forum and thread. The only certainty in discussing that is will be mocking and name calling and bad blood between otherwise reasonable and decent people.

The second issue debate can be something that can be monitored by action on the ground. In my own way, I have tried to present arguments for both the viewpoints related to that, and also given some markers that will indicate which one of the viewpoints is more likely to be true. IMHO, this is the main issue that needs to be addressed and not fizzle ya sizzle.


Raja Ram no disagreement regarding what you have written, but there are two separate issues here.

1) The actual yields
2) The question of future testing, CTBT, FMCT and CRE

This entire Santhanam episode is probably related to point 2 - ie The question of future testing, CTBT, FMCT and CRE

However what we are discussing here centers around 'actual yield" and the emotion related to this makes it very difficult to change the thrust of discussion.

Imagine if Pok II had given aclear yield of 150 kT. A lot more people would have been satisfied, but we would still have people unhappy because

a) Even 150kT would have been disputed by the NPA and they would have used seismology to argue and say "It was only 60-90 kT
b) 150 kT is nowhere near even one megaton

On this forum and among concerned Indians at large - doubts and fears will not be assuaged until India tests at least five megaton size bombs so that people can start feeling that "We have also done many tests and we have also got megaton bombs"

I am trying to point out that the issue is currently one of emotion regarding size of bum. That aspect cannot be set right without future testing. Unfortunately - the more urgent need is to make sure that options to test again in future are not signed away by a weak administration that is being arm twisted by the west in cahoots with China in ways that we do not know on here.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby shiv » 30 Aug 2009 09:50

abhiti wrote:
shiv wrote:Please do not make this pathetic excuse because this excuse can be used to question your ability and judgement.


What's big deal in the name? I will much rather talk about judgement of current and former AEC chief, current and former NSA, even current and former PM i.e. MMS and Vajpayee. What were they thinking when they trusted one weapon test is enough crowd?



Well a silly and repeated error such as this by a seemingly well informed person is an indicator of his fallibility. Fallibility is not a crime, but it remains a weakness. And everyone is of course free to hold their own views about the depth of weakness of anyone on this forum or off the forum.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby negi » 30 Aug 2009 09:52

For folks who wish to validate the TN weapon:

We have not yet signed the CTBT as yet so nothing has changed and when push comes to shove the button shall be pressed.

Shiv saar you had to poke at the Jingo sentiments didn't you ? :oops:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby ShauryaT » 30 Aug 2009 09:56

abhiti wrote:What were they thinking when they trusted one weapon test is enough crowd?
Sanctions! Which ties in with what Shiv is saying about weaknesses, real or perceived. As Prem said, economics have a lot to do with it. There are others, namely structural, institutional and geo-political. There is at least one more that I suspect Shiv has in mind that is our psyche and societal - I have not understood that.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby abhiti » 30 Aug 2009 09:57

shiv wrote:Well a silly and repeated error such as this by a seemingly well informed person is an indicator of his fallibility. Fallibility is not a crime, but it remains a weakness. And everyone is of course free to hold their own views about the depth of weakness of anyone on this forum or off the forum.


I wouldn't give rats a** if C would spell all names wrong. But I care a great deal when someone deliberately misleads military commanders about availability of a weapon critical to India's defence.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

Postby pankajs » 30 Aug 2009 10:02

My real problem with BARC/DAE is their un-scientific attitude.
1. For a new program (H -Bomb) one test is enough.
2. Simulation based on the results of a few test enough.
3. No peer review required.

If these were the accepted norms of research or industry then
LCA would be flying (One test enough, CFD all that is needed, etc,etc.)
Brahmos would not have been flown more than 11 times (Waste of resources)

What about Cars, Drugs, etc? Shouldn't computer modeling and simulation be enough. Why spend billions on testing programs? I know that all the above are not directly comparable with H-bomb design but it does give you the drift.

If the H-bomb program was scientifically executed, we would not be worried today about CTBT, etc.


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