Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 07:30

RC et al are scientists. They don't know the political ramifications of not success tests.

Brajesh Mishra was the NSA and Principal Secy of the PM. It was he who should have asked the tough questions about back plan in case of adverse consequences. The tests were not just about collecting data but also about affirming the strategic autonomy of India. It looks like everyone planned for a success oriented program which is fine if there is no P-5 trying to neuter you. And then he takes vote on a scientific matter. But then he cant go back and say we need to test after announcing the moratorium. The PM had cleared the test program to test as needed. Then they come up with why waste it for the sixth one!

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 17 Sep 2009 07:35

K Santhanam's article provides a bunch of new data:

1) He knows the bomb design and K Subrahmanyam had suggested that he was not privy to it.
2) There was a voice vote taken to decide whether the bomb worked or not. That is really concerning. Earlier it was said that radio chemical analysis clinched it. So there is a lot of disinformation in the reporting.
3) New pieces of evidence such as the shaft not being damaged at all are pointers to something wrong with the TN bomb.
4) TN bomb is not being built. 25KT fission bombs are being built. K Subrahmanyam had written that 60-80KT fission bombs are being built.

This article creates doubt about the statements of Brajesh Mishra etc.

I think it is time Santhanam's doubts are addressed by BARC.

tejas · Post by **tejas** » 17 Sep 2009 07:54

To me what is more serious than the fact that the TN was a dud was the attempt at covering this up after the fact. While I don't like to use the word treason very much, what else can we label such people? Would they have loaded these devices onto an Agni III knowing they would fail? Can there be a higher act of betrayal?

I was hoping against hope this was all a tamasha so India could avoid signing the shitty bitty. After the
Hindu op-ed piece, I am speechless. If the TN was so successful how come 11 years later we are only weaponizing 1945 vintage fission bombs? I literally feel sick to my stomach. This crime taints far more than BARC. The politicians ( ABV, Mishra et al.) are also responsible.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 07:56

shiv wrote:
NRao wrote:
Need to conduct more tests.
Nobody on BR has questioned this.

This is a TOTALLY different reason.

There is NO ONE that seems to have a duplicate nuke like this one (IF what you have said is true).

So, EVEN IF the US/RU/FR/UK is willing to provide data of their explosions, it seems to me that they may not matter at all.

?????????

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 07:58

Gagan wrote:Please read in full: From the Indian Defence Review
Time to test our nuclear deterrence
Lt Gen Vinay Shankar

Truly excellent article almost on par with Air Marshal Jayal's

I say "almost" because there are certain conclusions that the General reaches which can be shown to be useless given the facts that the general beautifully summed up earlier in his article.

He says that India must test.

The real problem is that by testing India will not be setting right all the other rubbish that India indulges in that he has listed in his article. Testing will not make that better - but I will say more on this later - after listing the salient points the General makes

About nuclear doctrine, the general says:

The second equally important commitment is: `Highly effective conventional military capabilities shall be maintained to raise the threshold of outbreak both of conventional military conflict as well as that of threat or use of nuclear weapons.`

How has our conventional and nuclear deterrence operated in the last decade? Kargil, Parakram and 26/11 have each highlighted two obviously very unpalatable deductions: the first is that our conventional deterrence is inadequate and the second- Pakistanâ€™s nuclear deterrence is effectively in place

And he points out how we shiver in our dhotis with regard to China:

Should not China be worrying about India`s nuclear threshold and drawing `red lines` of the kind we have been engaged in drawing against Pakistan? Why can we not indulge in nuclear brinkmanship of the kind that Pakistan has practiced? Is it because we do not possess the nuclear deterrence that we should and China knows it, as also the rest of the world?

The only conclusions I can reach is that our nation sends out signals of insincerity, cowardice and lack of willpower. When you have a country that that is seen by the world as a bunch of shivering, dithering dhotis - the only reaction to more testing will be ROTFL and it can be judged that more testing is only to reassure ourselves rather than scare anyone else - like baby holding mummy's pallu.

Let me repeat a story that I have told before on BRF. I was once chasing away a fruit vendor illegally parked on my land when he pulled out a knife. Perhaps out of stupidity I was not scared and chased him off and had him dealt with. But the truth is that the vendor could have solved the problem caused by me by knifing me there and then and not worrying about "being a good boy"

Even 25 million tests are not enough if we cannot do what we are supposed to do

Make our conventional forces strong enough to scare anyone
and
Show very clearly that we are wiling to use force. Bloody hell - when we are scared to use conventional force against Pakistan, leave alone China do you think anyone on earth will worry about Indian nukes even if we keep on testing forever? Everyone will ROTFL

John Snow was right and I apologise to him for misreading. Our nukes will not help us. More testing will not help us. We need a change of mindset. We truly are a nation of cowardly dhotis and what is in store for us in our karma is unavoidable. Even if we test, nothing will change.

amit · Post by **amit** » 17 Sep 2009 07:58

ShauryaT wrote:Amitji: Wrong again. It is high time India lives by the motto of Satyameva Jayate. The nation is way too important to leave it to the good offices of the government alone. KS should have done this a long time back. But, better late than never.

Shaurya ji,

Please note I'm not disputing what KS has written. I think he's too honorable a man to go kiteflying like this. But does Satyameva Jayate have to mean washing our dirty linen in public via a national newspaper? Are there no other ways to do that?

What kind of signal does it send to Beijing for example, if they are (suppose) readying a plan for a major border skirmish in Arunachal?

Look, everyone agrees that we need to test more. But how many people have done a cost-benefit analysis of an immediate test?

And yes one question that remains unanswered is why did KS not write this piece before the nuclear deal? I hope you do realise that this debate or furor over the TN device before the nuclear deal would have been a sure shot deal breaker?

Why did KS support the deal and yet now question the TN? Let me state, yet again, I'm not questioning his motive which I think are nothing but honorable. I'm just trying to understand the timing and how it affects India's short to medium term security calculus?

Note: It's my personal belief that India's security calculus comprises not only military strength but also economic security.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 17 Sep 2009 08:06

One question regarding K Santhanam's article is that: why would India put a 25KT device in Agni 3.

Does not Agni 3 have a payload of 1000 kg plus. So even if India did not have the TN bomb, can't they put a fission bomb with hgher than 25KT capability.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:12

In the Hindu article K Santhanam has served a ball that either has to be played by BARC or it will be game set and match for K Santhanam and prove that the "Shots heard around the world" were verbal shots and not nuclear bombs.

http://beta.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/article21311.ece

New data:

S1 shaft undamaged
A-frame above shaft undamaged
"crater" - 25 meters
Yield 25+2 kt

Well our deterrence depends on our karma and how much this allegedly dharmic nation actually believes in its own stated national motto - satyameva jayate..

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 08:13

I do not think that BARC can defend in public.

What dumbfounds me is the meeting they held to discuss the differences between BARC and DRDO, voice vote and all. The entire deterrence policy was dependent on this one meeting, which was based on this one test!!!!!! I have to be glad that they have tested the Agnis more often, at least the error rate here has been reduced (somewhat).

IF there was contention at this meeting a new meeting of any form of BARC defense will not do.

I think a test is inevitable. Multiple ones.

Unless of course a 15-25 Kt will do. Which it may for all I know.

The article also clearly states two things:
a) The S1 FAILED, and
b) KS was in the detailed know of the design of the device

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:21

I do not believe further tests are of any use.

I am certain fission bombs have been weaponized. but what the revelations question is whether we are sincere and honest in our statements that we will use nukes when needed. That now comes into question.

Even if we used NoKo sized nukes we could have deterrence only if we are sincere that were are actually going to use them at a time of crisis. Testing nukes does not help in proving anything. We are willing to "adjust" and compromise on anything. But that is true for every endeavor in India's national life - so why not this?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:23

Better to archive that Hindu article - just in case it vanishes. It may not be available 5 years from now. I have archived it.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 17 Sep 2009 08:31

First, after the TN test, its shaft remained totally undamaged: if the fusion stage had worked, the shaft would have been totally destroyed. Secondly, the A-frame sitting astride the mouth of the shaft, with winches to lower and raise personnel, materials and so on, also remained completely intact. If the fusion stage had worked, the ‘A’ frame would also have been totally destroyed.

Say what!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:31

csharma wrote:One question regarding K Santhanam's article is that: why would India put a 25KT device in Agni 3.

Does not Agni 3 have a payload of 1000 kg plus. So even if India did not have the TN bomb, can't they put a fission bomb with hgher than 25KT capability.

Technically they can do exactly what i had suggested earlier - putting 3 or 4 25 kt warheads. But that will be Agni 5 as per refs quoted recently.

But will India really use them? The leadership in India does not seem to believe that use of nuclear weapons will ever be necessary and that a bluff is good enough. Unless they can allay that impression deterrence is already being eroded - minute by minute.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Sep 2009 08:32

shiv wrote:Better to archive that Hindu article - just in case it vanishes. It may not be available 5 years from now. I have archived it.

First thing I did too.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 17 Sep 2009 08:35

What is the A frame that Santhanam talks about?

Agni 5 is an absolute must given all India has is fission bombs.

As K Subrahmanyam mentioned that even fission bombs are good enough. But what is puzzling is the cover up and the voice vote etc.

Brajesh Mishra has his fair share of blame for the voice vote thing.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 17 Sep 2009 08:38

This factual analysis reveals India’s decade-long, grim predicament regarding the failed TN bomb and so our Credible Minimum Deterrent (CMD). No country having undertaken only two weapon related tests of which the core TN device failed, can claim to have a CMD. This is corroborated by fact that even after 11 years the TN device has not been weaponised by BARC while the 25 kiloton fission device has been fully weaponised and operationally deployed on multiplate weapon platforms. It would be farcical to use a 3500-km range Agni-3 missile with a 25 kiloton fission warhead as the core of our CMD. Only a 150 – 350 kiloton if not megaton TN bomb can do so which we do not have.

So, Mr. Six got teeny tiny balls. needs to stuff lots of them in a sock before chucking.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 08:40

csharma wrote:What is the A frame that Santhanam talks about?

Agni 5 is an absolute must given all India has is fission bombs.

As K Subrahmanyam mentioned that even fission bombs are good enough. But what is puzzling is the cover up and the voice vote etc.

Brajesh Mishra has his fair share of blame for the voice vote thing.

A-frame is the frame that had the pulleys that allowed them to lower the devices

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 08:42

Time for a survivor type vote on ourselves.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 17 Sep 2009 08:45

csharma wrote: As K Subrahmanyam mentioned that even fission bombs are good enough.

He also mentioned before the test, that we do not need to test!

He also maintained that India only needs a minimum number for deterrence, without a strong analytical basis for the under 100 number. (Do you know what the latest estimates for TSP are?)

His advice is in variance with a "majority" of Indian military analysts on the issue.

KS is on dot to advice the war head to be in the 150-350 kt range. The best Indian analyst, IMO, Admiral Raja Menon's number is between 200-350 Kt range.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:47

csharma wrote:
Agni 5 is an absolute must given all India has is fission bombs.

As K Subrahmanyam mentioned that even fission bombs are good enough. But what is puzzling is the cover up and the voice vote etc.

Brajesh Mishra has his fair share of blame for the voice vote thing.

new thread on deterrence and bluff
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... f=1&t=5199

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 08:49

Now we know he shock that MMS got when he became PM. And his renaming things from MND to CMD.

Its truly Sach ka samna time.

No wonder the P-5 were tightening the screws and Mushy was swaggering like a bully from Kargil onwards. And then there is the Mumbai terrorist attack and the impuity with which it was carried out.

All the while they even lied to K Subramanyam. Lying to Bhishma! and to KSunderji on his hospital bed. These guys have no shame.

The A frame for the winch didnt even get damaged! Means all those radius of cavity was cooked up from formula on books. No wonder they were so exact.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 08:49

ramana wrote:Time for a survivor type vote on ourselves.

Need to clean up our own house here.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 08:57

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:Time for a survivor type vote on ourselves.
Need to clean up our own house here.

But credit goes to K Santhanam for providing new data rather than surviving on rumor and character assassination. No one else deserves credit by basking in his glow.

Let us not ignore the little details.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 17 Sep 2009 08:58

If the winch did not get damaged, then did the boosted fission primary fail as well?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 09:00

But, why now? Voice vote was taken years ago, even before MMS. And, why did MMS go to MCD? And, then Bush and his experts fell for it too?

None of this makes any sense.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 09:01

vera_k wrote:If the winch did not get damaged, then did the boosted fission primary fail as well?

No details. If 25 kt did not damage it then maybe it was not even 25 plus 2 - bout only ?+2.

We will have to wait and see how the accused parties react.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Sep 2009 09:01

NRao wrote:I have to be glad that they have tested the Agnis more often, at least the error rate here has been reduced (somewhat).

That is one big mystery , they test it 3 times and statically speaking they say its enough ( call it Credible Minimum Test )

And when they take a production batch model it just veers ofcourse , and then they come back after a month with a patch upgrade and Voila it works !

Certainly they say compoooter technology has progressed enough reducing the need to have test , but compoooter technology is also available in countries like Russia , but the need to test atleast 10 -12 test ( call it Credible Maximum Test ) even in development stage for new design is felt after all the compoooter advancement ( in soviet days when compoooter technology was not that great they used to do 25 to 30 test for each new missile ).

Certainly our Strategic Forces do not conduct exercise where they test these missile regularly as part of their exercise , may be compoooter simulator has replaced that.

csharma · Post by **csharma** » 17 Sep 2009 09:02

Santhanam in an interview clearly said that his timing is based on the new administration in the US and the possibility of India being forced to sign CTBT.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 09:03

There is and cannot be credit to any one in this case. They have ALL failed.

But, let us wait for the next shoe to drop.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Sep 2009 09:05

csharma wrote:Santhanam in an interview clearly said that his timing is based on the new administration in the US and the possibility of India being forced to sign CTBT.

Nuts.

They have been after India to sign the CTBT for eons. The pressure to sign was bound to come up. And, IF it is true that S1 failed - they ALL had to KNOW it FOR ALL THESE YEARS. So, whom is he fooling?

Even if that is the case, now there will be a LOT more pressure because he spoke up. Wonder if he had taken it through the back door before he went public.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 09:09

Austin wrote: Certainly our Strategic Forces do not conduct exercise where they test these missile regularly as part of their exercise , may be compoooter simulator has replaced that.

Maybe our political leadership do not believe that nuclear war will really occur and that nukes may really have to be used. So they bluff their way out of tricky questions and say how badly India will be affected if we think otherwise.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 17 Sep 2009 09:11

And with a nutcase like china, ironically, that bluff goes to zit.
What are we going to lob at beijing now? tawang? and hope the us fleet comes to the bay this time for us?

vasu_ray · Post by **vasu_ray** » 17 Sep 2009 09:19

samuel wrote:So, Mr. Six got teeny tiny balls. needs to stuff lots of them in a sock before chucking.

what is the destruction spread in sq. kms of a late model Agni with the tiny balls MIRV warhead?

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 09:26

(OK...me too ..although I can't differentiate nuclear with nukular)

WOW!

I wish he had said something (explicitly) about the Khetolai village and that would have taken the fig leaf out of whatever remains.

Can any inferences be made about the khetolai, now that we know not the shaft nor even the supposed "A" frame did not damage?

Overall, Kudos to K. Santhanam sir. Hope logical good comes out of this: We will strive harder to achieve our core national goals. We will learn from our mistakes and put together roboust institutional framework that validates work done in national endeavor (in that sense, DRDO and BARC already played this). Let's get rid of ego issues here and "fix" this.

NPA, NPT, CTBT, UNSC seat, veto power, and all else can go to hell for all we care.

Let's ensure our physical security first, economic (and other) security will be on its way. We learnt that basic lesson at huge cost, don't want to forget that.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Sep 2009 09:30

Sanku was the one who said village could be damaged fro S2. Looks like he was right.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 09:33

vasu_ray wrote: what is the destruction spread in sq. kms of a late model Agni with the tiny balls MIRV warhead?

I'm not answering your question. It is easy to argue for multiple 25 or 50 or 80 kt warheads of fission or boosted fission types. The question to my mind is that if insincerity and bluff is demonstrated at such a high level it questions India's resolve in having a nuclear force which we have the gumption to call "deterrence". We may be bluffing ourselves that more testing may help when we lack the resolve to make the arsenal credible and will again fail to use even "little balls" if necessary.

India's overall behavior in the slow and somnolent "Hindu rate of improvement of armed forces" reflects a deep malaise in which we do not have the stomach for the harsh realities of modern geopolitics.

Europe, Russia, the US and even Korea went through hard war and realise what it means to kill and be killed. But India got away easily. Independence came easy - with all memories of past genocides being forgotten. And "genocide" is always of a losing party that is unable to fight back. We don't even want to face minor economic hardship leave alone war.

We are a mentally weak nation who like to bluff ourselves like holding mummy's sari gives confidence. Testing more nukes and even talk of 25 kt MIRVs are part of that same bluff.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 17 Sep 2009 09:41

But the odds are so heavily against. If this was politics I am sure people would have resigned till they are proven innocent. In this case, these folks are retired so why the hell some people cling on to power even after retirement.

(OT)

Same with all others: The whole bunch of geriatrics are leading our nation to doom.

ATTN Rahul Mehta: Can we have a draft on resolution to impose upper limit on politicos just as there is lower limit where people under 30(?) can't become MPs or ministers? No $hit beyond 65 be allowed to hold political office.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Sep 2009 09:55

Satya_anveshi wrote:
Can any inferences be made about the khetolai, now that we know not the shaft nor even the supposed "A" frame did not damage?.

Well one can bluff and say that S2 shaft actually had S1 in it and Santhanam did not know which device went where.

Arun_S · Post by **Arun_S** » 17 Sep 2009 10:03

The 25 kT he is talking is the S1 weapon as it is was tested.

vina · Post by **vina** » 17 Sep 2009 10:08

S1 /S2 etc

Quite confusing. S1 --> Thermonuke and S2 /S3 are the sub critical micro nukes? So are you saying the Fusion Boosted Fission stage worked and the secondary fizzled?