Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

shiv
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby shiv » 23 Sep 2009 20:29

I am certain Santhanam can get more readership if he writes fro BRM/SRR

Arun why don't you ask him to write for BRM/SRR rather than contributing to stupid sites like "Southasiaforum.com". You claim to be in email contact with so many people and instead of giving secondhand info and quoting emails that are difficult to believe why not ask these people to contibute directly to BR. Get Santhanam to write and let is get Sikka or someone to rebut

On BR

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 23 Sep 2009 20:30

Still I feel happy since Raj Malhotra has informed me of the 20kt warheads weighing 250 kg. Four of these over Shanghai and Beijing each will do quite nicely.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby shiv » 23 Sep 2009 20:31

NRao wrote:


The author Dr. K Santhanam is on the Core Group of the South Asia Strategic Forum(TM) .
[/quote]


He must be desperate.

Check Alexa figures for that site. Get him on BR. Maybe I will email him. Only - I don't have his email id

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 20:45

NRao wrote:
shyamd wrote:The west has started giving advice once again :evil: :

India must turn away from the bomb


THAT article is written by: Randeep Ramesh, Delhi based correspondent for the Guradian. It is AN INDIAN, based in INDIA that has written this.

But the article does have huge flaws in logic.


Atleast for the members here these should be rebutted.

Thanks, ramana

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby hnair » 23 Sep 2009 20:51

shiv wrote:I had yet another aha moment. :D

Nowadays I am having aha moments every 2 days - especially after reading tall stories on this thread - makes me really high.
.....
.....
Then someone mentioned that famous venn diagram from the same paper - here it is:

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers5/paper43.gif

And suddenly I had my aha moment!

What if the Venn diagram is a lie? What if India - sitting North of Russia in the Venn diagram suddenly had an attack of gravity and fell downwards to attach with Russia? :rotfl: Just like Xerox did to China - some Indian could have done to brother Russia no?

The Russians invented the "Layer Cake" design. It was their first thermonuclear design. They did Teller Ulam only later. Layer cake will not reach multimegatons without becoming too big and taking up too much fissile materials - but at its smallest (and crudest?) it is smaller than early Teller Ulam designs.

Why does Pakistan accuse India of having acquired nuclear tech from Russia? Well. Is the Venn diagram wrong?

It is quite possible that the Radionuclide signature of Layer Cake is different from Teller Ulam. Any knowledgeable person who sees the Radiochem reports may say "Aha! layer cake. Russia!" Brahmaputra and Moskva mated to produce a baccha and a birthday Layer Cake was produced.

That is why it is "proliferation sensitive"


baithavey, I too went prompt-critical (my first nucus-pocus pun... 8) ) on this aspect. I disagree. This is bigger. This is no small birthday party. This must have been a scene out of Caligula's birthday party, if we consider the other known possessor of the cake-making skills. "India the great melting pot of all bum-tech". Uncle Venn would have been proud of the new masterpiece :P

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Israel/index.html

Just to send the def&dumb types into a tizzy - what if we tested an Israeli warhead ( IS-<insert your lucky number>) like the packies did with CH-4? :lol:
We must have asked them "Mere pass prolate-primary bum hai, teeny fission ones hai aur panch sow tonne plutonium. <dramatic pause> what do you lads have?". They said in suitable classical lingo "We shalt bring Cake". And we all burst merry and crushed that auspicious crystal goblet with the heel and said "Mazel tov!!". Thus they too finally have a fully-tested warhead and lived happily till the next stone throwing incident.

Heck, if our detergent is going down the drain, we might as well wash some dirty laundry with it and take everyone's grease off...... :(( (flying under the ROTFL radar mode of admins)

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Sanku » 23 Sep 2009 20:53

Manish_Sharma wrote:Still I feel happy since Raj Malhotra has informed me of the 20kt warheads weighing 250 kg. Four of these over Shanghai and Beijing each will do quite nicely.


Please remember you are talking about that damage to China in response to total destruction of at least 4 major Indian cities and a complete nuclear strike on Mil targets including nuclear facilities.

Fair trade off?
Last edited by Sanku on 23 Sep 2009 22:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby enqyoob » 23 Sep 2009 20:55

Sorry, but this does not compute:

As for Khetolai couldn't they have done the test a little further away or dug much deeper. I can understand that they had to factor in US satellites overhead or ABV govt. wanted to do at earliest.
or just moved the whole village away to someplace else giving them houses somewhere else.
To start Metro trains in Delhi it was BJP govt. under Khurana who brought the rule that whatever property comes in the way of Metro will be taken out. No appeal possible, no no courts nothing. Take whatever money is given and move.

And here we had the biggest experiment in the History of India, compromised 'cause of 600 houses in desert of rajasthan. Just 600 houses in DDA Delhi would have made a fortune for the villagers.


Simple. The See Ay Eh etc. were looking for precisely such signs. I think this was discussed by no less than Santanam himself, and some others. I would have done the tests 1 mile from the Paki border - say outside Longewala - just to remind them. Not bothered with instrumentation etc - just have a big crater which is the only thing that satisfies the "1MT or bust" crowd anyway.

But Santanam and others made clear that they had to use pre-existing, reinforced concrete shafts because any soil removal would have been a giveaway. The other things about the pre-existing shafts were that they had a large number of sensors and instrumentation around them - and 30 years of test results. If you went elsewhere, the only thing to be done would be a crater test with a couple of seismographs. Not good if the intent was scientific validation, not just "let's test a couple of bum samples yaar!"

I guess what they are not saying is that the satellites were by no means the only concern. Look at the elaborate precautions taken in getting the senior officials there. They were very much concerned about the ground-level spies of all shades.

So all the obvious things like moving Khetolai away or digging new holes or going deep into the desert were not practical. By the way, look on Google satellites maps - there are not that many green places in that region, and Khetolai is one of the best, so villagers can't just move "some distance".

Oh, and BTW, all this agrees 400% with the secret info given to me by this Babu in dark glasses who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not allowed to speak to the media. 8)

And Manish, your science grade just slipped. :oops: Regardless of what may have been desirable etc., and all the dazzling technical gobbledygook about this data and that data, you forgot that you still have to answer the basic common sense issue:

If the "fizzle" caused this much damage at Khetolai, what would a "sizzle" have done? If a "fizzle" and "sizzle" are the same in effect 4km away, hey, isn't a "fizzle" cheaper anyway? The point is that they DIDN'T move Khetolai out or move the shaft away. So they did not EXPECT it to sizzle any more than it did.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 20:59

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:Oh thank god another bit of spin killed right here (Cortex was done and by DRDO to boot, and KS did know the designs)

The instrumentation included seismic and advanced fibre-optic sensors which were placed at a large number of points in the adits of the shafts where the devices were placed and to a radius of about 2.5 km from the axis of the shafts. The entire range of sensors and recorders fully international standards class in terms of accuracy and reliability; and, so acknowledged by BARC .as well.



So you think advanced fibre-optic sensors {note the use of plural} which were placed at a large number of points in the adits of the shafts... means that it was a the Cortex test?

Let me quote what Ramana wrote in 1999:

) CORTEX. Here a cable is lowered and gets crushed during the test. You measure the radius of the hole by measuring the cable length. Then you back calculate what should be the yield that causes the cable to be of a particular length. Again this was stated in the press conference after the tests. Need to look up Hindu back issues in May '98.


Link

Now I really wonder if both are the same thing? Perhaps Ramana can comment?



The CORTEX method is also called the hydrodynamic method. When testing the weapon in atmosphere the yield can be accurately estimated by measuring the size of the fireball. Its proportional to the diameter of the fireball. Herbert York in his memoirs talks about witnessing a UK test and estimating the yeild to a precision of a kt, way before the results were announced. However when testing moved underground an accurate method of determining the cavity diameter was needed to apply the hydrodynamic method. One way was to place a series of cables around the test site axis and measure the signal. When the cavity forms and expands it crushes the cable and thus the signal will bounce back quicker. And as any polytechnic electrical line man can tell you one can measure the cable length by measuring the signal. So this way the cavity diameter can be determined accurately. And from this the yield.

What KS is describing above is that fiber optic cables and sensors were emplaced upto a circle diameter of 2.5 km from the axis of the shaft. This is equivalent and probably much more accurate than the electircal signal method for it relies on light source and no spurious co-axial effects of electrical cable.

So if he is saying that the fiber optic sensors did not confirm the cavity radius then its another strike.

On the other hand BARC radio -chem paper gives the cavity radius as 40+/- 4m.


So whats going on?

D*mn everyday is a new day!

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Tanaji » 23 Sep 2009 21:01

Manish_Sharma wrote:Still I feel happy since Raj Malhotra has informed me of the 20kt warheads weighing 250 kg. Four of these over Shanghai and Beijing each will do quite nicely.


Really, no offence meant to Raj Malhotra at all, I like his posts. But why is his word so important to you? Just curious?

How will you deliver 4 of them to wherever you want them? 4 Agnis? We only have 20-26 of each type and can make one a year apparently.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby enqyoob » 23 Sep 2009 21:09

Why fiber-optic, ramana? AFAIK, the purpose of optic fiber leads is either
1) convey light
2) transmit digital pulses much shorter than what an electron-drift medium like a cable does, hence allow much faster digital data rates.
3) Allow transmission over much longer distances without substantial pulse decay.

So maybe the high data rate allows sensors located at intervals to capture the shape of the leading shock and its decay much more accurately, since much higher frequencies can be transmitted over longer distances. So it's not the same as measuring the increasing cavity diameter (that process spreads at speed << shock speed, right? )

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 21:14

shiv wrote:I had yet another aha moment. :D

Nowadays I am having aha moments every 2 days - especially after reading tall stories on this thread - makes me really high.

Some days ago someone linked on here a statement by Dr RC and someone else asked "wtf?"

Chidambaram wrote:
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers5/paper451.html
As mentioned earlier, we have not given the fusion-fission breakup and, since we have not given the composition of the materials used nor their quantitites, for reasons of proliferation sensitivity as mentioned earlier, no one outside the design team has data to calculate this fission-fusion yield breakup or any other significant parameter related to fusion burn.


Someone said "WTF?. What is proliferation sensitive about this?"

Then someone mentioned that famous venn diagram from the same paper - here it is:

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers5/paper43.gif

And suddenly I had my aha moment!

What if the Venn diagram is a lie? What if India - sitting North of Russia in the Venn diagram suddenly had an attack of gravity and fell downwards to attach with Russia? :rotfl: Just like Xerox did to China - some Indian could have done to brother Russia no?

The Russians invented the "Layer Cake" design. It was their first thermonuclear design. They did Teller Ulam only later. Layer cake will not reach multimegatons without becoming too big and taking up too much fissile materials - but at its smallest (and crudest?) it is smaller than early Teller Ulam designs.

Why does Pakistan accuse India of having acquired nuclear tech from Russia? Well. Is the Venn diagram wrong?

It is quite possible that the Radionuclide signature of Layer Cake is different from Teller Ulam. Any knowledgeable person who sees the Radiochem reports may say "Aha! layer cake. Russia!" Brahmaputra and Moskva mated to produce a baccha and a birthday Layer Cake was produced.

That is why it is "proliferation sensitive"

No? I have no links. No private sources. I only have to cross check with myself. 100% original Indian.

Incidentally the following image on BR shows what appears to be teller Ulam design. How about some Layer cake? Did someone say "Have the (Layer) cake and eat it too?".

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/MISSILES/ ... n_r15c.jpg


If we are on the venn diagram veracity, it could be uncle too for all we know. After all only uncle's people want to know more. We dont here a peep out of anyone else. And there are more recorded instances of contacts between Indians and uncle's folks. Eg. the declassified telegram from US consul in Bombay after the PRC test in 1960s where H.N. Sethna says India knew more about what was tested than anyone else. Recall the Nanda Devi joint expedition, the ARC seismic monitoring station at Karnal. and who knows what else. There could even be giant suction cable in BARC directly linked to uncle folks.

Maybe uncle had a way of people quiet by spreading goodies that may or not work unless verified. After all it still boggles my mind why India doesn't raise a stink about the TSP network smuggling US components for supposedly PRC design.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Arun_S » 23 Sep 2009 21:15

N^3: Time Domain Reflectometry


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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby dinesha » 23 Sep 2009 21:20

CORRTEX, which stands for Continuous Reflectometry for Radius versus Time Experiment, relies on a cable that can be placed in the same hole that contains the explosives or in a nearby hole. As shock waves from the explosion pass through the cable, they affect an electrical pulse that travels along the cable. The changes in this pulse enable scientists to estimate the yield of the explosion.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Soviets+v ... -a06342579

CORRTEX: a compact and versatile system for time domain reflectometry
Research Org Los Alamos Scientific Lab., NM (USA)
Abstract: The CORRTEX (COntinuous Reflectometry for Radius versus Time EXperiments) system was designed to be an adaptable and versatile unit for performing time domain reflectometry (TDR). The system consists of a coaxial cable, a digital TDR, which uses a Motorola 6800 microprocessor, a power source or battery pack, and an output terminal or recording driver. Desirable criteria for the system are discussed as well as the operation of the CORRTEX system. The types of present applications of the CORRTEX system are summarized and data presented.
http://www.osti.gov/bridge/product.bibl ... id=6647528

See Page 4; Principles of TDR operations
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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby shiv » 23 Sep 2009 21:26

Someone please correct me if I am wrong. the single Google books ref to CORRTEX I have read says that it depends on the short circuiting of coaxial cable so as the cable (going underground near the test cavity) gets crushed (and short circuited) before possible destruction - that shortening can be measured and the "analysis of the shock wave expansion data" can give a measurement of yield "exact" to within 20-30%. CORRTEX methods accuracy is noy well known for yields in the range of 1-20 kt

CORRTEX can work a few hundred meters away from the site only if you us very thin cable that can get crushed at such distances. Fr low yield devices the cable must be close to the device

As far as I can tell - I am unable to see how fiber optic cable is of any use for CORRTEXand certainly not if it is more than a hundred meters away.

link

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby shiv » 23 Sep 2009 21:33

Check this out folks - re CORRTEX

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/11/world ... -view.html

Before the experiment carried out at the nuclear test site in Nevada on Aug. 18, the United States said it would detonate a device that would approach the 150-kiloton limit on underground tests that is set by a 1974 treaty. Administration officials said that based on previous experience, the explosion should have been in the 140-kiloton range.

The American side installed two Corrtex devices at the test site. The Corrtex system estimates the size of the explosion by measuring the time it takes to crush a cable inserted in such holes. The Russians used similar devices. Both sides also took measurements of tremors in the earth using seismographs far from the test site. Other Complications

One American Corrtex device is said to have measured the blast at slightly more than 150 kilotons. The other device measured slightly greater than 160 kilotons, officials said. But an estimate by official American Government seismic instruments is said to have confirmed expectations that the blast would be in the 140-kiloton range, officials said. The results were first disclosed by The Washington Post.

Other results complicate the picture. Charles B. Archambeau, a scientist who works with the Natural Resources Defense Council, initially estimated the size of the blast at 115 kilotons based on publicly available seismic data, according to Mr. Cochran.

The Energy Department has decided to carry out a chemical analysis of debris in the test hole to better assess the size of the test. But the Administration says ''the results will remain confidential since we do not discuss the yields of U.S. nuclear tests.''

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Arun_S » 23 Sep 2009 21:36

Reminds me of:
    Jisnay Lakhon Haseen Dekhay Ho, Uski Niyat Kharab Kaya Hogi?

and
    Haath Kangan Tou Aarsi Kya,
    Padhay Likhay Ko Farsi Kya.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 21:47

Page 131 of this book for CORRTEX description.

Seismic Verification of testing treaties

From OTA, US govt.

Can someone post the picture?

Also in the KS quote they plal=ced the fiber optic sensors upto 2.5km around the axis of the shaft and not at 2.5km.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Raveen » 23 Sep 2009 21:48

Arun_S wrote:Reminds me of:
    Jisnay Lakhon Haseen Dekhay Ho, Uski Niyat Kharab Kaya Hogi?

and
    Haath Kangan Tou Aarsi Kya,
    Padhay Likhay Ko Farsi Kya.


:lol:

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby John Snow » 23 Sep 2009 21:53

fiber optic can send digital signals and the band width is also high so clusters of transducers can send data in one cabling. also if the fiber optic is itself used a cable that is going to be crushed and thereby interrupt the signal that in itself can be transducer.

The nearest anaolgy is the pressurized tubes that are put on the road in khan land to check traffic density and also the speed if there are spaced tubes time bteween two clicks used to divide the distance apart to get speed.

This also analogus to disaapearing pyrometer used in blast furncae, or smelting when the color of the fillament vanishes in the back ground color radition of the molten metal, then the fillament and the metal are at the same temperature.

JMHO

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Raj Malhotra » 23 Sep 2009 22:00

ramana wrote:
So if an expected crater radius of 72m and DOB of 230 m is for what yield?
K Santhanam gives the crater radius for the S-2 in his op-eds.



This is the multi-million dollar question, which i think will reveal the difference between three yields of S-1 "design yield" vs "claimed yield =43kt" vs "actual yield =20kt". I think that Sanathanam has already given info that part of yield of Fission bomb was used to save H&D of TN. Now the only reason he & PKI could be so sure of failure is that "design yield was way higher". So what was the yield that could be contained in 230m depth shaft in hard rock pink granite with 72m subsistence crater (my guess would be anything between 200kt-1mt)

Guys waiting for the answer to Ramana's question!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The resident experts are ignoring my queries therefore I will try to connect some dots in my own limited way:-

1. PKI said that if 10% fusion fuel burned then it would lead to 20kt fusion yield. It meant that PKI was talking about 200kt fusion yield which means something like 500kt to 1MT yield of the TN. My assumption is that TN nuke design started during PKI time and he knew that the TN was supposed to yield 500kt to 1MT and hence was not even satisfied with “then” reported 50kt yield.

2. Santhanam talked about 350kt to 1MT yield TNs, why ??.

3. SBM has referred to weight of 400kg for S1, it is too much for chotu 43kt TN, as I said before that even in 1960s the TN of this yield weight around 50kg.

4. Arun_S talks about boosted primary, boosted spark plug and tertiary, hence 50kt design yield is way toooooooo less for such a configuration.

5. Why would a team of scientists testing a TN for the first & perhaps the last time test a 43kt chotu TN? I think village thing is a red herring.

6. My take is that 230m shaft in “pink granite hard rock” could take a 500kt-1MT TN explosion

7. My (revised guess) is that S1 was meant to be 500kt-1MT device in which even the boosted primary fizzled leading to FBF yield of 17kt instead of 40-50kt and 2-4kt fusion yield instead of 200kt fusion yield with minor yields from spark plug and tertiary.

8. Ashely Tellis also said that primary failed to boost, this observation may have been based on intelligence reports.

9. My guess is that the 6th test was pulled as it was the lighter smaller, say 150kg-350kt yield TN whose fizzle would have given 4-5kt yield and would have been difficult to disguise as chotu TN.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 22:03

Google has quite few links on the subject.

One from Springer Verlag

LINK


2)LINK

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby samuel » 23 Sep 2009 22:07

Why not do better and use frequency domain reflectometry (are there range or bandwidth problems)? We can send a chirp tuned to a wavenumber and watch what happens to it the return strength as a function of frequency
Instant reconstruction of P-wave spectra. If we use one of the frequencies as the normalizing signal then that ratiometric analysis will be stable to an cable fluctuations (of power etc.) themselves
and by using many we may be able to put error bars around the P-wave spectral curves.

Lot's passed on thread...catching up, just. Did any one notice problems with the spectral curves being referred to earlier? Hopefully a little later.
Bosslog, we can simply do a spreadsheet and stick these things in and do what ifs about yield, depth, retarc or crater, medium etc. --

Ramana -- that mixture of probabilities you asked for -- can't remember now is easy to do. Probably worth having a package somewhere any way, just change shape of probabilities and CEP etc and machinery will still work.

S

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 23 Sep 2009 22:19

And Manish, your science grade just slipped. Regardless of what may have been desirable etc., and all the dazzling technical gobbledygook about this data and that data, you forgot that you still have to answer the basic common sense issue:

If the "fizzle" caused this much damage at Khetolai, what would a "sizzle" have done? If a "fizzle" and "sizzle" are the same in effect 4km away, hey, isn't a "fizzle" cheaper anyway? The point is that they DIDN'T move Khetolai out or move the shaft away. So they did not EXPECT it to sizzle any more than it did.


:( Dear teacher please please don't let my grades slip...... have compassion!

Of course the common sense answer is if 27kt fizzle created cracks then 45kt would have at least leveled high percentage of homes, and 60% certainly would have taken it to Rasaatal. Also the Ramdevra village would have gone which by the way on map looks closer than Khetolai. That's why I did rona dhona on moving the whole village to DDA flats Delhi.
Just got carried away in this rona dhona.
This is the only point which is keeping this aam admi from going to pro testing camp.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Sanku » 23 Sep 2009 22:29

Manish_Sharma wrote:To start Metro trains in Delhi it was BJP govt. under Khurana who brought the rule that whatever property comes in the way of Metro will be taken out. No appeal possible, no no courts nothing. Take whatever money is given and move.

And here we had the biggest experiment in the History of India, compromised 'cause of 600 houses in desert of rajasthan. Just 600 houses in DDA Delhi would have made a fortune for the villagers.

.



Isnt it telling Manish! Isnt it telling?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Sanku » 23 Sep 2009 22:33

Manish_Sharma wrote: :( Dear teacher please please don't let my grades slip...... have compassion!

Of course the common sense answer is if 27kt fizzle created cracks then 45kt would have at least leveled high percentage of homes, and 60% certainly would have taken it to Rasaatal. Also the Ramdevra village would have gone which by the way on map looks closer than Khetolai. .



No Manish nothing would have happened, its all sleight of hand mathematics, or techno babble.

This is like 4 = 2*2; that is twice of 2 but forgetting 2/1000 =~ (roughly same as) 4/1000.

The context (depth) has been neatly abstracted out.

There was not much damage to Kehtolai and the village was any way evacuated. Kehtolai is a red herring.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 23 Sep 2009 22:46

Tanaji Post subject: Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2Posted: 23 Sep 2009 03:31 pm

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Joined: 21 Jun 2000 06:01 am
Posts: 892 Manish_Sharma wrote:
Still I feel happy since Raj Malhotra has informed me of the 20kt warheads weighing 250 kg. Four of these over Shanghai and Beijing each will do quite nicely.


Really, no offence meant to Raj Malhotra at all, I like his posts. But why is his word so important to you? Just curious?

How will you deliver 4 of them to wherever you want them? 4 Agnis? We only have 20-26 of each type and can make one a year apparently.



Tanaji, because I don't know how I had picked up this number in my head that 20kt fission bomb is 800 kg.
Don't know how it happened, maybe continuously trying to catch up doing fast reading (by my standard at least) as this thread moves faster than Agni Missile. But I had this figure in my head.
Three things were bothering me in the whole deterrent topic:
1.) How to deliver petals weighing 800 kg. over the said targets.
2.) Failure of TN would mean more use of fissile material which is not in abundance.
3.) Not having enough bang in 20kt warheads. But then Shiv and Narayanan brought this idea of causing more trouble and pain by not wiping out the cities but by partially destroying them. The idea appealed very much (Hope I don't sound too much like a genociding sadist manic)
No no need for 4 Agnis Tanaji, Arun_S has told in this thread that Agni can carry three MIRVs so 2 Agnis carrying 3 petals each over the city. Lets say 4 reach and to don't due to ABM or sizzle etc. As you told 20-26 each type Agni we have, 20 Agni IIs with 1 petal and 20 Agni IIIs with 3 petals each = 80 warheads.
This was average aam admi logic.
Hope nobody puts water on it and make me worried again. :(

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Raveen » 23 Sep 2009 22:49

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Shiv and Narayanan brought this idea of causing more trouble and pain by not wiping out the cities but by partially destroying them. (


I must have missed this, can someone please refer me to this/these post(s)
I would love to read this

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Arun_S » 23 Sep 2009 22:52

Sanku wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote: :( Dear teacher please please don't let my grades slip...... have compassion!

Of course the common sense answer is if 27kt fizzle created cracks then 45kt would have at least leveled high percentage of homes, and 60% certainly would have taken it to Rasaatal. Also the Ramdevra village would have gone which by the way on map looks closer than Khetolai. .



No Manish nothing would have happened, its all sleight of hand mathematics, or techno babble.

This is like 4 = 2*2; that is twice of 2 but forgetting 2/1000 =~ (roughly same as) 4/1000.

The context (depth) has been neatly abstracted out.

There was not much damage to Kehtolai and the village was any way evacuated. Kehtolai is a red herring.

Manish may first checkout in 11 May 98 how many homes were levelled?
Shhhh ... Cheat sheet says: None.

So much for: "45kt would have at least leveled high percentage of homes, and 60% certainly would have taken it to Rasaatal."

No offense Manish, your posts reminds me of kid in candy store.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 22:59

Samuel and Raj Malhotra, Another indirect method is from the 3-D simulation of POK I paper in Current Science. It says that the cavity (not crater is 30m-page 6 of the pdf) for value of 12kt in shale. From this we can compute the expected cavity radius for the ~ 43 kt and adjust for hardness of "pink granite" to shale. We then compare this to measured value in the Radio-chem paper. Both these are BARC data and so on one can say corrupted data.

One hitch is that the 3-D paper doesnt say if its diameter or radius. So we need to calculate for both.


per Terhune the Radius of cavity = k*(Y]^1/3

K= 12 - 16 with 12 for granite. Assume shale is 14 or a reasonable value between these two.

Therefor RC2/RC1= (Y2/Y1)^1/3
RC2 = RC1*(Y2/Y1)^1/3

As granite is stiffer than shale by not much the cavity will be smaller than that calculated for shale by small percentage.

Lets see what this results in?

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Anant » 23 Sep 2009 23:06

This thread like all other controversial ones on BR (i.e. Arihant, nuclear bomb design and now this) fissures into two paths. The first path is the science people like Arun_S, Ramana, some others and myself (scientist, although not in this field) who ask astonishingly simple questions like: 1) Did the experiment work? 2) Is there data to show it worked? 3) Is the data valid and reproducible and 4) Does it pass peer review. Then there is the second path. The philosophical path. What would happen to Khetolai? Can we parse magic words of each statement coming from each official? What happens if a butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazon? How does this affect India? There are many of you who are good at philosophy and such wish to parse each statement and interpret things to fit what you think is right. I prefer to view things coldly as black or white. Simple as that. That is truly why I prefer Arun_S and Ramana's posts. They make sense to me and are backed up by data. I don't see what the problem is in repeated questioning of sources. Who cares? Source or sourceless his analysis makes mathematical sense. Can you refute that? Unless some of you are nuke bomb designers or in the mix of these people, I humbly ask that you refute him objectively. That isn't happening. The fact of the matter is this (to me). India doesn't have TN capability and thanks to laziness, sloth, governmental inaction and general chalta hai attitude has mortgaged the security of the Indian people. To complicate matter, it has done so in a neighborhood that is much like the Bronx or East DC--really bad. And guess what, the neighbors know this. It's an issue of deterrence, plain and simple. The Chinese and the Americans not to mention the Pukes probably knew about this bumb back in 1998. And India wishes to become a permanent security council member? Please. To all the people who think that 20 KT and concomitant casualties are better than a 200 kT or 1 MT strike, you are fooling yourself. Nukes are like poker. You can bluff people all you want but someone will eventually call your bluff. If your opponent knows that you got 12,000 nukes and most are 200KT to 20 MT in your arsenal, they'll kiss your butt. If you got some piddly ass stuff that is 20 KT, they'll tap your head and tell you to sit at the kids table. I don't see what is so unclear of this. And so far, all the objective data shows India has got squat TN capability. Sad but true.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 23 Sep 2009 23:23

None taken! I still feel honoured that you have taken time to comment upon my post. In a way you are right Arun_S that I am out of my depth among giants on BR.
I have zero understanding of technical things, maths science.
But still I like to read BR. Sanku has gone to great pains to explain his point against the Khetolai point raised by Narayanan. I am thankful to him for taking his precious time to explain this to a person like me. When I agreed with Narayanan's point it was not that I was rejecting Sanku's point. Just was not able to understand it.
But two things keep me hooked to this point of Narayanan.
One is I was not able to understand Sanku, so had to do my average or below average 2+2 and arrive at the number. So I made this point of 27kt and 45kt.
Second was that from 3rd or 4th page of this thread Narayanan had raised this point and continuously I was waiting for you or Ramana to counter it. But you didn't. And every two three pages Narayanan will drop this point either under your or Ramana's post challenging for an answer but none will come. So slowly slowly I started to think about it.
When I had started reading this thread I was totally pro testing.
But the two points have kept me:
1.) Khetolai cracks and your and Ramana's silence over that.
2.) Inability of Indian leadership to use them. Even if we take the step of testing inviting sanctions and all that (which I think failed in '98 and will fail again miserably) I don't think anybody except Modi and Bal Thakrey will have the guts to use them.
You and Vivek Ahuja have always been my star posters I am happy to have communicated with you.
Best Regards and a Banarasi for you
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 23 Sep 2009 23:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 23:30

"Maunam ardah angi kaaram" (Silence is half acceptance!)

Not so, it could be that there is nothing to talk about, when one makes such a preposterous statement that the entire Indian national security posture gets one chance and they claim it underperformed due to concerns for safety of people around the neighborhood who were evacuvated anyway.

Its a case of fallacy of logic. It underperformed due its own deficiencies and not due concern for unreinforced brick/masonry (URB/M) houses.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 23 Sep 2009 23:36

Glad to have you on record Sir, FINALLY !!!
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 23 Sep 2009 23:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 23:39

H NAir, Soon after Indian tests in 1998, the Pakis claimed as such and even Kalamji wrotes about it in his book Vision 2020! So nothing wasnt done!

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby ramana » 23 Sep 2009 23:46

I dont know why you need me to be on record. But who knows?
Anyway why dont you do the simple math in above post and contribute.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby SaiK » 23 Sep 2009 23:49

there can be only 5 permanent members.. and who asked us if we are even welcome? it could be silly to even dream about being in the permanent council!..

btw, the "p" does stands for "permanent" and not "power".. hence, it is important for us to define our projections according to our desires... be it a complete fizzle or a completed fissile., we have to be very careful to not fall into political spectrum easily, that had only delivered poverty thus far, and QED emphatically.

The new age has to define the set of requirements... there is a day that will come, when the p5 (note the small p), will think harder to retest. lets not waste time in thinking about should we test?.. we must always test, if we have any idea of even having any type of N weapon. </period>.. when we want to test it,,, entirely depends on the two aspects: how well we can test , and still show nothing was done.. or when the event comes from soon to be unstable p5.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Manish_Sharma » 24 Sep 2009 00:00

Wanted you on record because you have been pro testing but somehow ignoring this point, which I took as acceptence (wrongly).
But I did contribute rightly or wrongly above.

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby Anant » 24 Sep 2009 00:00

SaiK,

I did use the word permanent (not power) and its an open secret that India and some others want to modify the UN Charter and expand the permanent (voting or not) members of the security council. By the way, the one common thread of all 5 is that they have extensive nuclear arsenals. Coincidence right? I'll just agree to disagree with your assessment. Thanks.

Anant

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Re: Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist - Part-2

Postby shravan » 24 Sep 2009 00:02

Perils of minimal deterrence
Bharat Karnad
24 Sep 2009


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