Babu Bihari wrote:ok shivji, i may have missed your posts. did you also say before the fizzle news, why not only fission bombs?
No but let me be honest. I am the sort of person who does not believe anything until I find corroborative evidence. I will not believe something just because I like the idea and makes me feel secure. I am too much of a pessimist for that.
I have never mentally accepted the idea that India has 150 kt or even 100 kt nukes because it is clear (from my reading) that you can build one but unless you test a few they might not work reliably. Besides there was never any public reference to India's arsenal other than fission bombs. The only decision I had to reach in my mind was whether the people who are in charge of these things live in la la land or not. My general reading also tells me that fission bombs are relatively easy to "get it right" reliably. (Sub systems can also be tested fully without a nuclear explosion)
So putting these points together
1) It is possible to get fission bombs right consistently
2) India has fission bombs
3) India has never tested any 150-200 kt TN
4) The planners who need to use bombs do not live in la la land
Based on this I mentally envisaged the manner in which deterrence maybe possible assuming that all those juicy centi-tons were unavailable. That is why I have so many ready made arguments to support the contention that deterrence is feasible with fission bombs only.
That does not mean that I do not favor the development of TN bombs. But if you look at this idea honestly without wasting bandwidth on calling someone or the other a liar you find two facts staring at you in the face
1) India can theoretically make TN bombs in the absence of proof that they will work - using stolen data, borrowed data, simulation data or even lies. The idea that India has such bombs may make some people happy but they cannot be guaranteed to work. It is better not to have such "aase"
- I use a Kannada words that means "desire" but the inner meaning comes to my mind more easily by using the Kannada word.
2) It is better not to depend on a TN arsenal in the absence of further testing. But it is better to be ready to test with a few designs and those "ready to test" devices should ideally be deliverable as well - just in case so that they can double up as untested weapons in case of serious war. But the main and reliable deterrence is going to have to come from fission weapons
These conclusions are easy to reach if you do not waste time imagining things that have not been released into the public space by reliable official sources. I personally am surprised at the number of people who seem "disappointed and angry" that India's deterrence is with fission only. That means those angry and disappointed people have believed that 150 kt or bigger weapons exist. Who gave them that idea? Who encouraged those ideas? No Indian source has ever claimed the existence of such weapons. Sadly BR itself, via the missile pages has served as a source for so many people who have been led up the garden path to believe that 150 kt or bigger weapons exist and it could alleged that BR itself was led up the garden path by the lies of some people. Chidambaram himself has never claimed that India has 150 kt nukes. No official source has done that.
On what basis are people "disappointed and angry" about the indian fizzile arsenal? Naturally the need to "get real" and "smell he coffee" will make people upset. But they would not have been upset if they had been cynics in the first place.