Wow. Been out all this long. So, sorry that I did not respond earlier.
Just google on "South Tibet".
It seems to me that you are claiming two contradictory things. On one hand you claim that India has (reliable) deterrence, while also laying out a plan for 15-20 tests. Could you explain please?
1) I feel
India has deterrence against China, based on what I have read in open source
2) "Deterrence", IMVVVHO, does NOT have to be MT class
3) BUT, if India does decide to test - IMHO, it cannot be a few tests, it should be 10+. Which is why I do not understand Santhanam's 2 more test (perhaps he meant 2 or more tests?). Whatever, I am eagerly waiting to see if he will expand on that
Acharya wrote:We are asking for test and a credible demonstrated TN weapons. Looks like you agree with that.
I would compromise to "We are asking for a TN test and a credible demonstrated TN weapon". (I would reword it tho'.)
PRC leadership remains the same structure even of the economy looks like a market economy.
Even if the structure (of PRC leaders) remains the same, I am arguing that their mentality is very different. Like Indian "leaders" they also have similar pressure points - as individuals or very small groups. (For deterrence: target those pressure points.)
I am not sure you are saying that.
Since India inherited the problem there will be problems for India. It has to protect itself from bullying and war from China.
Inherited some 60 years ago. Tested something in 1974, something else in 1998 and in 2009 complaining that more needs to be done to "protect itself"?
On "bullying", yes true. But, a bully can ONLY bully someone who is willing to get bullied. A nation and its leaders who are more engrossed for decades on some silly cricket game and bollywood is asking for trouble. Forget China, India has got bullied by BD, SL, Pakis and Nepal too in the past. Not to talk of 20-25% under some yahoo Maoist group, a parallel economy that is underground for about 30+ years and just read a Trillion+ US Dollars in Swiss bank accounts. At times I wonder why China even does anything to try and crush India.
Suraj wrote:Taiwan's claim on Arunachal Pradesh is corrollary to their claim on China.
Perhaps it is. But, from what I have read so far, the problem started in 1914 - that is way before even the Commies came to power. So, IF Taiwan claims to be the rightful rulers of China based on being the rulers before the commies, then this problem started when they were in power.
I suspect you are better than me in stats. However, I have just enough under my belt to be dangerous - my brain takes a little time to warm up, but I am not lost in these matters - just slow.
I have the same open source that you have - nothing at all that is different.
Where you and I MAY differ - my understanding - is with "deterrence".
On TN and yields, there are plenty of open source material - including BR based. From what I have read there was an era when TNs were in vogue. But, it seems to me (and anyone can correct me) that with the advent of more precise missiles the NEED for large yields went off the radar. Simply put, a smaller yield hosted on a missile with a LOT more precision would achieve the deterrence objective
of an older larger yield bomb hosted by a missile that was not as accurate.
The stuff in bold is the key - IMHO.
If you look at the test history of NWS and consider India has declared herself to be that, one thing that strikes is that there is little doubt about their capacity to deliver 1KT or 1MT and more. They just tested it like that. Our own scientists are expressing doubts of our own tests, and that give one confidence how?
So, based on what you posted, which is based on what you have read so far, the missiles India have are great, it is only what is on top of it that is of concern. That is an OK statement to make, IMHO. However, we need to come to some sort of an agreement: fission 20-25 Kt bombs are functioning well (Santhanam), the Good Admiral seem to claim that FBF of upto 500 Kt are possible (!!!!!!!!!! salt please). TN is an issue. No one knows. From what we have computed (and that is all we can do) we seem to see conflicting information out there - from depths, to yield, to crater size or crater vs. no crater.
Meanwhile India does have very accurate missile that can host a viable 20-25 Kt nuke.
Can that be considered a deterrence? I think it can, BUT there are plenty who think it does NOT constitute a deterrence.
I think we need answers for:
1) Is there a tested, confident FBF capability?
2) IF FBF exists, how far up can it be scaled?
IF the answer is yes to both and it can go to 150-200 Kt, then IMHO, based onw hat Santhanam has stated, there is not concern.
CTBT is never an issue - India cannot sign it.
Comments, including opposing views, are more than welcome.