Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Singha
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Singha » 09 Feb 2010 21:33

some kind of joint doctrine books by tri-chiefs was released today for maritime ops, sub conventional warfare and EW. details awited at livefist.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_o_no4M2xEPY/S ... 711378.JPG

Sudip
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Sudip » 09 Feb 2010 23:05

skaranam wrote:
A man who identified himself as Bharat Nepali, a former aide to Chhota Rajan, told a television network that he had planned and executed the murder because of Shah’s “anti-India activities”.

Nepali, said to be hailing from Delhi, claimed he had floated his own gang.


Bharat Nepali...interesting name...



he should be given some kind of bravery award

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyamd » 09 Feb 2010 23:08

P.K Hormese Tharakan has come out into the open on his views.
Spooks and shadows
Two major events in the annual calendar of the intelligence community in India are the IB Centenary Endowment lecture organised by the Intelligence Bureau and the R.N. Kao Memorial Lecture organised by the Research and Analysis Wing. However, rarely have these annual lectures attracted such sustained interest as they have done this year. Home Minister P. Chidambaram, delivering the IB lecture on December 23, proposed drastic structural changes in the system for coordinating collection and dissemination of intelligence for counter-terrorist operations, while Vice President Hamid Ansari, delivering the Kao lecture on January 19, suggested that intelligence agencies subject themselves to parliamentary oversight. The novelty of these proposals has given rise to a public debate which has drawn fresh impetus from the change of guard at the office of the national security advisor (NSA).

As a matter of fact, both these proposals — the setting up of a National Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC) and the introduction of parliamentary oversight — had been discussed in detail by the Second Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC) headed by Veerappa Moily, the present Union law minister. Intelligence organisations in several other democratic countries, as Ansari pointed out, are subject to parliamentary oversight. There is extensive congressional oversight over intelligence in the US. Canada and Australia have routine parliamentary oversight introduced through fairly recent legislation (in 1985 and 2001, respectively). South Africa’s Intelligence Oversight Act of 1994 provides for a rather high level of parliamentary oversight. Interestingly, there was no parliamentary oversight in France until 2007; it is said that the strong presence of the French Communist Party in parliament during the Cold War years made the French establishment wary of permitting any parliamentary oversight over intelligence services. Even now, the politicians involved would be appropriately vetted. Surprisingly, as Brian A. Jackson points out, the French Intelligence Services welcomed the political and judicial cover and legitimacy that such oversight would provide for their operations.

It may be in the interests of Indian intelligence agencies to examine whether they can live with parliamentary oversight of a limited nature such as that practised in France or the UK. In the UK, an Intelligence and Security Committee consisting of nine cross-party MPs provides a layer of quasi-legislative oversight. It reports directly to the prime minister and is obliged to produce an annual report on the overall performance of the British Intelligence Services, but only a sanitised version of its report is placed in Parliament for debate. It would, however, be fair to take into account the concerns of the intelligence agencies before the proposal is given a final shape. Intelligence organisations must not be subjected to oversight by another layer of officialdom if they are going to be made answerable to Parliament. Moreover, the intelligence community is likely to be more comfortable with the proposed parliamentary oversight if politicians with a criminal background are not allowed to contest elections as the Congress president is reported to have demanded a few days back.

The restructuring of the security architecture, an idea proposed by Chidambaram in his IB speech, had also been examined in detail by the ARC. The role of the NSA has attracted a great deal of attention recently. Obviously, the idea of creating the post of NSA came from the American system, where such a post had existed in one form or the other since the introduction of the National Security Act in 1947. In the US, the post was conceived as that of an aide to the president, to assist him or his office in coordinating the working of the departments concerned with national security, particularly defence, external affairs (state), finance (treasury) and, since 2001, home (homeland security). However, the NSA in the US did not always have direct access to the president. During Ronald Reagan’s time, the NSA was a member of the White House staff who reported to the chief of staff. On the other hand, the CIA director, who was also the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) with a coordinating responsibility over all intelligence agencies, held cabinet rank during 1993-2001.

In India, we combined the functions of the NSA and DCI (or Director of National Intelligence as the post is now called in the US) in one person. The office of the NSA as it emerged in India posed a formidable challenge even for M.K. Narayanan with his extraordinary skills and vast experience in intelligence. It would perhaps be appropriate to separate the two distinct functions of inter-ministerial coordination for implementation of national security-related policies and inter-agency coordination for generating the intelligence required by the PM for guiding the formulation of those policies.

Chidambaram’s proposal to revitalise the still-born Multi-Agency Centre and convert it into NCTC under a director-general seems to be an effort in that direction. (This again was a proposal discussed by the ARC.) However, it is important to ensure conceptual clarity while giving shape to that proposal. Chidambaram wants the NCTC to have analytical and operational capabilities. Experts like B. Raman and V. Balachandran have pointed out that the NCTC in the US does not have an operational role. It is important to note that there are two counter-terrorism centres in the US. The CIA set up one in 1986 within the directorate of operations. It was a unit in which action-oriented spies from the directorate of operations, analysts from the directorate of intelligence and technical experts from the directorate of science and technology came together to work, putting in place a system to overcome the functional problems posed by territorial divisions in the CIA in tackling terrorists whose operations transcended territorial boundaries. That unit, as far as I am aware, continues to function and has a major operational role in America’s fight against terrorism. The NCTC, set up under the DNI in 2004, on the other hand, is meant to be “a centre for joint operational planning and joint intelligence, staffed by personnel from the various agencies” but “does not direct the execution of any resulting operations.” (From the NCTC website.)

Such a set-up meant for joint operational planning is feasible in India too. But one challenge would remain in the arena of security architecture even if the NCTC is put in place — that of finding a solution to the problem of coordination of intelligence relating to aspects of national security other than terrorism. That is an issue which must attract the attention of the national security establishment at this time of transition at its apex level. (ehh??? Isn't the MAC supposed to sort this problem out?)

The writer retired as chief of the Research and Analysis Wing in January 2007

express@expressindia.com


PKHT tried his best to sort out some of the training issues and other problems. He seemed to be a bit more of a public chief, he appeared in news interviews etc. Quite diff to many other chiefs.

---------------------------------


India develops electronic intelligence tech for surveillance
Press Trust of India / Bangalore February 9, 2010, 15:05 IST

India has developed a new generation satellite-fitted electronic intelligence system for surveillance applications to keep an eye on hostile neighbours, key defence officials said today.

The system has been developed by Hyderabad-based Defence Electronics and Research Laboratory (DLRL) under the Defence Research and Development Organisation, sources told PTI.

A DRDO source termed a satellite fitted with this system as a "spy satellite". The electronic intelligence system on board a satellite takes images of "resources" of hostile countries as it passes over them from the space, they said.

According to sources, select countries such as the US, France and China are already using such type of system. India also has now designed, integrated and tested such a system.

DRDO is already in discussion with Bangalore-headquartered Indian Space Research Organisation in this regard, and the payload to be flown in one of the low earth observation satellites is expected to be ready by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Director of Defence Avionics Research Establishment (DARE) U K Revankar said the DRDO lab has developed new electronic warfare system for Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas and it would be tested shortly.

Defence scientists are also working on technologies to intercept and jam network of satellite phones. "That project is going on. Within a year, it will be ready," an official said.

India has also developed a "penetration aid" that allows its aircraft to penetrate into enemy territory "without being identified by any of the radars," sources said.

As part of counter-measures against hostile missiles, a consortium comprising of Bharat Electronics Limited, DLRL, DARE and Electronic Corporation of India Limited (ECIL) has been formed to develop systems to divert missiles from various platforms.

"There are a large number of helicopters which require radar warning receivers and also missile approach warning system for helicopters," a defence official said.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Craig Alpert » 10 Feb 2010 01:02


Jarita
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Jarita » 10 Feb 2010 05:15

Have you folks read abt this episode

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/commen ... 882005.xml

Careful and thorough investigation and a number of background interviews with military diplomats close to Brigadier Durcan revealed that a research fellow from Institute of Strategic Studies is the lady behind the whole affair.

“Holding dual nationality, one Pakistani and other British, Ms M K, has been associated with the Institute for many years. She deals with a number of defence-related issues and has written many research papers particularly on conflict resolution, non-proliferation, and EU.

“She frequently travelled between England and Pakistan. In Pakistan, she sought many interviews with various high-level defence officials even in Pakistani military hierarchy. She came under suspicion by M16 undercovers in Islamabad mission when she sought interviews with defence officials of the High Commission to be used in her research papers.

“According to sources, she would ask some very pointed and pertinent questions. But when she went back she never used these interviews and wrote nothing on these issues. Intelligence authorities in the High Commission were then alarmed and started suspecting that these questions were asked by her for not her own research papers but for the consumption of some one else. This was some time last fall. The girl and the Brigadier were monitored. Phones were bugged. Even the room and the house of the British Military Attache were bugged.

“Some sources claimed that some filming was also done to prepare incriminating evidence. Both were also spotted intimately together at some social functions. Sources claimed that the Brigadier also travelled to England many times to spend time with her and his engagements in England were also watched and closely monitored.

“A team arrived from London in early January this year after Christmas holidays and the Brigadier was confronted for the first time about the status of his relations with the young lady. He was asked to report back to London where, according to sources, he appeared before a three-member military tribunal along with the internal inquiry report, and evidence based on phonic conversations and perhaps with some pictures”.

Alam drew a swift riposte from Mazari, who called a press conference the very next day, refuting the allegations point-by-point. She said although the research fellow mentioned in Alam’s report did work for ISS, all references to her subordinate’s name – right from the work specifics to foreign travel and dangerous liaisons with the disgraced British official – were factually wrong.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Sudip » 10 Feb 2010 05:43

Here's a speech by Stella Rimington who was DG of MI5 from 92 to 96. She claims (at 3:09) that New Delhi was crisscrossed by intelligence agents of both sides in the peak of cold war. Later on she gives lot of interesting anecdotes about her intelligence career.

Video link

Heres here bio.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Gerard » 10 Feb 2010 06:16

Jarita wrote:Have you folks read abt this episode
.


Months before the episode we had photos of Maria Kiani and the girls in Madam Mazari's stables. Our speculation as to their purpose was confirmed when Kiani was named as the honey-pot.

btw, Brig. Durcan needed hospital care after her 'research'.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby sunny y » 10 Feb 2010 20:32

Thanks a lot RayC sir, Sum, Shyam, Ashutosh. This was really helpful.

Thanks

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby k prasad » 10 Feb 2010 22:04

ramana wrote:
putnanja wrote:This can tire the toughest of men and a search is now on for someone who is well versed in security management to take the responsibility for coordinating between the various agencies all matters relating to security and surveillance.
...
The one who finally gets the job is likely to be given the rank of secretary and will be asked to head a new outfit which most probably will be called the National Security Group or Panel. The chiefs of the RAW, IB, CBI and others, barring that of Military Intelligence, will report to the NSG who will in turn report to the Home Minister.
...
...


Organizationally this is wrong setup as HM is not the head of the govt decision makeing apparatus. It demote the intel agencies even further.

The individual should be in PMO and have those folks report on operational matters while the funding can be with parent ministry.

Home Ministry is not the ministry for Security.


One simple qn... what the hell is MMS doing? I wonder why we haven't heard anything about him meeting RAW chief, etc. One would think that that would have been one of his duties, given that RAW is directly under him, and for a reason. If the present govt keeps boasting abt wat IG, JN and the rest of the bloodline did, the least they'd do is to follow something IG did very diligently.

For one, RAW isn't all security, but their mandate would encompass all issues, such as financial intell, foreign affairs, home affairs even, security/defence, and other related areas that would be under the purview of various ministries.

IMO, this is why it would make sense to put them directly under the head of these ministries, ie the PM, who can have the full view of the situation, and thus, should theoretically be in the position to make the best use of the intell & take the best decision based on it.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby ramana » 10 Feb 2010 22:46

The pristine guys like Gujral etc don't like to meet the intel chiefs as they think they do the dirty work. Gujral in 1997 gave a speech berating the kacha folks and the chief at that time answered back.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby amdavadi » 10 Feb 2010 23:46

I met gujaral at UC few months after buddha smile again.After his hour long speech, he had Q&A session. I being
truly unwash desi decided to ask him question regarding pokhran-2.He said all the routine we hear in public as
India has right to test,and we are living in dangerous neighbourhood blah blah blah. I still wasnt satisfied with his answer
so after he got done with his Q&A.I met him again,and told him i am writing a paper on GOI's motive regarding pokhran-2.

He took 180 turn when everyone left the room.He said India shouldnt have tested the bomb.As it will provoke Paquis,and we need to built better relationship with them.Since we are going to be living with them.He was very impress by chipanda,and
the route they have taken by peaceful rise to world stage.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Jarita » 11 Feb 2010 00:19

^^^ Am sure MMS shares those sentiments.
Well it certainly got Gujral a sweet post retirement job

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Sudip » 11 Feb 2010 23:38


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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Craig Alpert » 12 Feb 2010 02:51

Chidambaram backs Omar, says PoK is India
The Home Minister asserted that PoK was very much a part of India and Indian youth returning from there would be welcomed. "Whatever Omar has suggested is okay... We will consult the leaders and the Opposition, but please understand if an Indian has gone to PoK and then returned, he will be welcomed and rehabilitated. Also you must understand, PoK is India."

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Craig Alpert » 13 Feb 2010 22:15

Bomb blast at Pune's landmark bakery, 8 dead
..................

Sources claim that there was "unactionable" intelligence of possible attacks on religious places and army installations. Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister confirmed that there were "non-specific" inputs.
........................
Sources added that the blast occurred when someone opened an unidentified bag; an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) is believed to have been used.

Eyewitnesses said that the police and fire brigade were at the spot within minutes.

"There was a huge explosion followed by a bang. I got scared. Many bodies were strewn around. We immediately called for the ambulance to take away the injured," said a local resident.

"There was no fire just a blast and bodies were flung around; most had been blown to smithereens," said another.
................


India restaurant bomb blast kills eight in Pune
"We heard a big noise and we all rushed out. The impact was so much that there were tiny body parts everywhere," Vinod Dhale, who works at the restaurant, told Reuters news agency.

Anti-terror squad officers have gone to the scene.

"There has been a bomb blast," senior police official Rajendra Sonawane said.

"There was an abandoned bag which seems to have contained some IED [improvised explosive device]."

Initial reports suggested a gas cylinder had exploded.

The German Bakery is near the Osho Ashram, a mystic centre popular with visitors to Pune.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby NehraA » 16 Feb 2010 18:09

if any one was watching Times Now on 15 feb at 2100, on the debate after some grilling by the anchor(true indian news channel estyle ), and mr. g parthasarthy ,hamid mir(a paki journalist from geo tv) hit back by revealing that parthasarthy had just met two retired paki generals in bankok one of them former DG ISI, and both of whom were very close to musharaff and also operational planners for kargil . possible backchannel? intrestingly the channel hasnt put the show online, but it has uploaded the very next debate on its site.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby jerry » 16 Feb 2010 18:53

"a bunch of madmen are best convinced if randomly one or two are electrocuted and beaten to
death by unknown people in the night. this is what the zionists did to the hamas arms agent in
dubai recently.
talk if you want to but make sure to inflict pain too." Quote Singha
http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/uae/crime ... g-1.583814
Very interesting video of reconstruction of a assination in dubai of a hamas leader by suspected isreali agents.
Some interesting details.
1. Within 24hrs a team of more than 11 individuals entered the country,executed the hamas leader in 20 minutes and later
left the country.
2. The team arrived at the airport at various intervals stayed in different hotels paid all expenses in cash.
3. Their communication tools were highly sophisticated and coded and encrypted not seen or available by the police.
4. The video shows, its a classic thorough operation which mossad is so famous for.
5. It also shows how professional and thorough the uae authorities are in their investigation.
6. The police chief says "we know where they are right now even their residences and will ask the European
countries to cooperate, but if they refuse we will also reduce our cooperation with these countries.
(shows even small countries don't let go easily)
Last edited by jerry on 16 Feb 2010 20:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby abhishekm » 16 Feb 2010 20:01

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/britons-with ... ml?from=tn


New Delhi: Two British nationals staying at the Radisson Hotel near the Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) in Delhi have been detained after they were found with suspicious gadgets and are being questioned, police said Tuesday.


Stephen Hampston and Steven Martin were detained by the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Delhi Police on Monday for possessing some high tech gadgets, maps and binoculars.


"They checked into the hotel on Feb 13 and hotel authorities informed us after they found their activities suspicious. We are questioning them," a police officer said.


"The two were carrying sophisticated gadgets that can be used to capture details of air traffic. They have told police that aircraft spotting is their hobby and they use the gadgets for that only," he said.


"We are also trying to find out people who they were in touch with in the national capital or other parts of the country."


Officials from the British High Commission have got consular access and met the duo.


Police are verifying their passport and travel details and also examining the gadgets. Security agencies are also examining their mobile phones and laptop.


Delhi has been on high alert since Saturday after a blast in Pune left 10 people dead and many injured.


Last week, a US national was detained at the Indira Gandhi International Airport when security agencies found a knife in his baggage.


So, aircraft spotting is their hobby? I recall a similar case in Greece where a bunch of Britons were caught and sentenced to varying jail terms for aircraft spotting.

*Fantasy alert* Maybe these guys are from the ultra-secret Special Recon Group and they are scouting the areas around IGI airport to enable a quick getaway for an assassin squad a la the recent assassination of a Hamas member in Dubai 8)

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby abhishek_sharma » 17 Feb 2010 11:32

Who Speaks for Islam? Muslim Grassroots Leaders and Popular Preachers in South Asia
Mumtaz Ahmad, Dietrich Reetz and Thomas H. Johnson

http://www.nbr.org/publications/specialreport/pdf/SR22.pdf

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Craig Alpert » 17 Feb 2010 19:49

jerry wrote:snip/
Very interesting video of reconstruction of a assination in dubai of a hamas leader by suspected isreali agents.
Some interesting details.
1. Within 24hrs a team of more than 11 individuals entered the country,executed the hamas leader in 20 minutes and later
left the country.
2. The team arrived at the airport at various intervals stayed in different hotels paid all expenses in cash.
3. Their communication tools were highly sophisticated and coded and encrypted not seen or available by the police.
4. The video shows, its a classic thorough operation which mossad is so famous for.
5. It also shows how professional and thorough the uae authorities are in their investigation.
6. The police chief says "we know where they are right now even their residences and will ask the European
countries to cooperate, but if they refuse we will also reduce our cooperation with these countries.
(shows even small countries don't let go easily)

A rebuttal from the Isralei Side... If what they claim is true, god damn I love the "Zionist." They got BALLS! the BEST intelligence agency in the ENTIRE WORLD!!! Shalom!
Israel says no proof it carried out Hamas Dubai killing
Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has said there is no proof the Mossad spy agency carried out the killing of a Hamas commander in Dubai.

But he did not fully deny that Israel carried out the killing, citing its "policy of ambiguity" on such matters.

Dubai believes 11 "agents with European passports" killed Mahmoud al-Mabhouh.

Seven foreign-born Israelis named as suspects say their identities were stolen and they were not involved. UK passports used were said to be fake.

France, Germany and the Irish Republic also said they believed the passports from their countries used by the alleged killers were false.

'Israel never confirms'

Hamas has accused Israeli agents of murdering their operative - a view shared by many commentators because Mossad has in the past used forged foreign passports in its operations.

But in Israel's first official comments on the affair, Mr Lieberman said there was no reason to blame Israel and Mossad.

I don't know why we are assuming that Israel, or the Mossad, used those passports," he told Army Radio.

"There is no reason to think that it was the Israeli Mossad, and not some other intelligence service or country up to some mischief."

He did not outright deny Israeli involvement.

"Israel never responds, never confirms and never denies," he said. "There is no reason for Israel to change this policy."

Mr Mabhouh was murdered in his hotel room in Dubai on 20 January.

Reports have suggested he was in Dubai to buy weapons for the Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas.

Two Palestinian suspects were being questioned about the murder. Police said they had "fled to Jordan" after the killing, without releasing their names.

Officials in Dubai, who have issued arrest warrants, said the team appeared to be a professional hit squad, probably sponsored by a foreign power.

They released CCTV footage which they said showed some of the suspects in disguises, including wigs and false beards, in the hotel near Dubai's international airport.

The suspects allegedly trailed Mr Mabhouh when he arrived in Dubai from Syria, paid for everything in cash and used various mobile phones.

Some of the British-born Israelis whose names were on the passports used by the suspects have said they are shocked by the discovery.

"I don't know how they got my details, who took them," said Stephen Daniel Hodes, 37.

"I haven't left the country, I think, for two years and I've never been to Dubai ever. I don't know who's behind this. I am just scared, these are major forces," he said.


All said and done, it is brillant work, how they managed to sneak pass the customs with French, UK, and Germany's Passport.. And people were quick to pass a buck with David Headly/ Rana's visit to India.. if countries such as France, UK and Germany can't prevent missues of their Passport, then Indian customs falls in the Same league!!!!

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyamd » 17 Feb 2010 21:40

^^ Biometric passports are just a step forward for small time criminals. In certain countries, you can BUY your citizenship illegally if you have enough money. There are many rackets running in TSP/Morocco buying old passports and valid EUpassports for around £10k. Hence why govts have become very wary and worried.

The Mossad buys the paper/chemicals and essentially used to manufacture passports in the 90's for their intel ops. Note how not one of the passports were from the US, they were European.

The biometric chips are so easy to break, and there have been numerous expose's already. The password for it is just the 2 line >>>IND code in the photo page.

Most wanted Indian criminals are already known to travel in and out of India with impunity using fake passports. If you are well connected, you can get passports before police verification.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby ASPuar » 17 Feb 2010 22:22

^^^

True, but you need to be fairly well connected to do that. Ie, either high up in government, or related to/good friends with, someone who is.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Akshut » 17 Feb 2010 22:31

NehraA wrote:if any one was watching Times Now on 15 feb at 2100, on the debate after some grilling by the anchor(true indian news channel estyle ), and mr. g parthasarthy ,hamid mir(a paki journalist from geo tv) hit back by revealing that parthasarthy had just met two retired paki generals in bankok one of them former DG ISI, and both of whom were very close to musharaff and also operational planners for kargil . possible backchannel? intrestingly the channel hasnt put the show online, but it has uploaded the very next debate on its site.


Did he really say that Mr. Parthasarthy met the generals? If yes, then what could possibly be the reason at all?

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby sunny y » 17 Feb 2010 22:40

How Hamas's top leader was assassinated
http://news.rediff.com/report/2010/feb/ ... inated.htm

Hats off to Mossad....We should take some lessons from Israelis. This is high time we leave the path of so called ahinsa & give these ******** a taste of their own medicine.
I bet if people like Hafiz Saeed & Dawood were wanted in Israel, they would have been 10 feet below the ground by now.

We always talk about the dificulties that we will have to face while operating in countries like Pakistan because of their hostility towards us. But if Israelis can do this hundreds of miles away from their homeland in a hostile territory then why can't we ? I know that relations between Israel & Arab world are not as hot as they were earlier but still they cannot be called friends either.
Can some guru please explain to me why we haven't been able to neutralize targets like dawood even after more than 15 years ??
Because honestly I have tried but this thing is beyond my understanding.
Is the lack of political will the main factor behind this ??

Thanks

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Jarita » 18 Feb 2010 02:33

^^^ There are diplomatic and other implications of such behaviour.
Israelis can get away with it because of the strong backing they have from the US & UK. Additionally, they anyway have 0 soft power in the middle east, so there is nothing to lose.
India is not in the same place. Except Pakistan, India has an evenhanded relationship with most Islamic countries and a decent reputation worldwide. Plus we have no sugar daddies. Hence, such wild west cowboy behaviours will not workd for us

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyams » 18 Feb 2010 03:23

Jarita wrote:^^^ There are diplomatic and other implications of such behaviour.
Israelis can get away with it because of the strong backing they have from the US & UK. Additionally, they anyway have 0 soft power in the middle east, so there is nothing to lose.
India is not in the same place. Except Pakistan, India has an evenhanded relationship with most Islamic countries and a decent reputation worldwide. Plus we have no sugar daddies. Hence, such wild west cowboy behaviours will not workd for us


With all due respect, Jarita, I disagree. IMO Soft power is useful only when it is used in conjuction with hard power. Afghanistan (Af) is the best example for where soft power only has not given us much inroads geoplitically. India has considerable soft power in Af. But, look where we found ourselves in the recent conference in London on Af, where Pakistan was able to leverage its non-soft power (diplomatic, ISI relations with Pashtuns among others) to completely sideline India in the decision making of Af's future. Nobody would disagree that Afghan's love India and what our govt is doing there. But at the end of the day, we should measure ourselves by what we achieved for our beloved country, not how much we are loved by people who are never involved in the decision making process.

But take a step back and ask yourself the question; is there any instance where a country with an independent foreign policy and by following soft power and diplomacy only has won respect and geopolitical traction/mass. If there is please let me know. In the "dark world" (ripping off the term used by Fred Burton in his book on Counter-Terrorism), there are no friends, only interests. And its high time we try to look at geopolitics via that angle.

Our govt has used the term "soft power" to effectively hide and to avoid making bold geopolitical decisions. Please don't forget how we used CIT-J and CIT-X teams effectively cleanse Punjab back in the 80s. Neither of those teams were teams involved in soft power. They were men/women who were ready to do 'anything' so that people like you and me can walk freely in our country, and they did a brilliant job of it too. Too bad our weak kneed govt closed those programs, and look where we are today as far as security goes. Our soft power is much more than that of the 80s. But its utterly useless, since it is ineffective in making our homes a safe place.

Jarita wrote:^^^ There are diplomatic and other implications of such behaviour.
Except Pakistan, India has an evenhanded relationship with most Islamic countries and a decent reputation worldwide. Plus we have no sugar daddies. Hence, such wild west cowboy behaviours will not workd for us


I have to disagree with you on the above line as well. In middle east we have so many Indians who live there....but we are pretty weak in the middle east. We have neither good diplomatic relations nor military relations in that part of the world among the regional heavy weights like Saudi Arabia etc. Iran is one exception. But we may have botched that relationship as well in an effort to be Uncle's Poodle in South Asia. The other Islamic countries like Malaysia, just simply look at us without much respect. Why? Because they know that we have only soft power, which cannot be used to retaliate effectively unless under certain conditions, like a massive trade deficit etc (think the recent China Vs France issue on Tibet.) And right now we are not in a position like China where we can use trade as an effective weapon.

I am yet to meet one person till today (since the Dubai incident) either on the news or analysts, or even friends/coworkers in US who did not have a smirk for the Hamas and a look of awe and respect for Mossad. Of course, most of the people who I talked to today were politically correct in saying, "yeah, ...but not sure if this is right." On the other hand when 26/11 happened, these same people had sympathy for a poor third world nation that did not have the spine to retaliate in any fashion.

I'd much rather prefer that India invest heavily in training to carry out such black ops than invest in an ICBM (not saying that we should not invest in ICBM). Since the ROI (Return on Investment) in black ops is massive if done correctly IMO. Imagine an India without Dawood and all other anti-India figures roaming freely in Pak. Of course, there are massive risks too, the risk of the state getting exposed, but then..."No Risk, No Glory." And of course, when you take out the leaders, like Israel does, you are doing a very clean operation, as opposed to risking a lot of civilian casualties via conventional strikes.

amdavadi
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby amdavadi » 18 Feb 2010 04:19

read "kill Khalid" to understand how far isreal will go to kill hamas member.

shyams
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyams » 18 Feb 2010 04:41

Marten wrote:^ Brilliantly outlined. *Tips hat.

About ten years ago a Mumbai-based Don who subsequently moved to the South East offered to hit Dawood in Karachi (he was spotted at the Peninsula in Dubai about 2 weeks later with two of his brothers). In exchange, he asked for clemency in 12 cases filed against him, his younger brother and for three other associates to be released (or expatriated to Nepal). If we couldn't provide external support for a gangster who's willing to give up his life to get Dawood, would we consider sending in our wunderkinden? It's about time we accept our weak knees. How difficult would it be to set a Rs. 100 crore reward for Dawood? The only reason he's not dead yet is because some of our politicians fear they would be severely exposed if his accomplices start singing.


Martin, I think you are talking about Chota Rajan. No doubt he was brilliant, and made an agreement with the Govt for clemency like you mentioned. I would like to add that, while in Thailand hospital, he made a 'miraculous' escape, after an attempt on his life, in which he was severely injured, and his trusted lieutenant and family was a casualty. I believe that the then BJP govt gave our peeps the resources to get him out of there. Thai govt cooperated as well. When Rajan made the escape surprisingly the security in the hospital was lax...just to create that window of opportunity for escape IMO.

I have to also add that our central govt had to scramble resources to get him to safety since the Maharashtra govt and Mumbai police in particular were scrambling to get to Thailand to extradite him (and I believe an extradition treaty with Thai did exist as well.) Anybody having even remote connections with the power houses in Mumbai, will know as to how the D network runs deep in Mantralaya, among the various other offices of power.

While I don't have any links to support this, I would like to believe that Rajan carried out 2 assassination attempts in Nepal for us. One of them included a Nepal politician as well, who I believe was using his house as a safe house for Paki rats before letting them infiltrate into our country. The second one being the most recent one where a business man (who floated the rumor about Hritik disrespecting Nepal) was killed. Not much evidence or talks in the web about the second one.

One thing for sure, Chota Rajan is clearly not as strong as he used to be. And to bring out the stark difference in attitudes of govt here, D moves around in Pak with armoured protection and ISI at his beck and call so that they can bleed India (and we are bleeding profusely), while Rajan (the last I know) usually jumps between Malaysia, Singapore and other south east Asian countries to escape detection.

Even during the days when Rajan was helping India, I very much doubt if those strikes/activities had the govt support. I cant think of any one in Indian govt since the days of Narasimha Rao govt who had it in him, to make strong decisions. (Not saying Rao was a strong decision maker, he was so indecisive that he never interfered, and so the professionals were allowed to do their jobs without any political interference.)

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby skaranam » 18 Feb 2010 10:31

shyams wrote:I cant think of any one in Indian govt since the days of Narasimha Rao govt who had it in him, to make strong decisions. (Not saying Rao was a strong decision maker, he was so indecisive that he never interfered, and so the professionals were allowed to do their jobs without any political interference.)

PVNR was a master strategist. His famous statement - Not taking a decision is also a decision. I recall the caricature of PVNR is the "Chindu", which had a zip at his mouth which was always zipped up tight....

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Sudip » 18 Feb 2010 10:36

My warmest congratulations to Mossad. I wish my country had such laurels to its name.

I had a question for the gurus:-
Since BR is the biggest India centric open source intelligence collection site around, how much is it visited and maybe referred by the big bosses of intelligence in our country? I have seen some prominent experts and journalists giving their opinions in the forums, but how often does the top echelon refer (and maybe use) it for opinions and news?

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Philip » 18 Feb 2010 14:47

How the "hit" was planned.Meticulous and a good textbook case for study.In and out of Dubai in 18 hrs.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... anned.html


Robert Fisk,veteran Middle-East scribe has this insiders take on the "hit".

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 02994.html

Robert Fisk: Britain's explanation is riddled with inconsistencies. It's time to come clean

How could the Arabs pick up on a Mossad killing, if that is what it was? Well, we shall see.

Mahmoud al-Mabhouh - the victim of British collusion with Israel?

Collusion. That's what it's all about. The United Arab Emirates suspect – only suspect, mark you – that Europe's "security collaboration" with Israel has crossed a line into illegality, where British passports (and those of other other EU nations) can now be used to send Israeli agents into the Gulf to kill Israel's enemies. At 3.49pm yesterday afternoon (Beirut time, 1.49pm in London), my Lebanese phone rang. It was a source – impeccable, I know him, he spoke with the authority I know he has in Abu Dhabi – to say that "the British passports are real. They are hologram pictures with the biometric stamp. They are not forged or fake. The names were really there. If you can fake a hologram or biometric stamp, what does this mean?"


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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Craig Alpert » 18 Feb 2010 21:18

Philip wrote:It was a source – impeccable, I know him, he spoke with the authority I know he has in Abu Dhabi – to say that "the British passports are real. They are hologram pictures with the biometric stamp. They are not forged or fake. The names were really there. If you can fake a hologram or biometric stamp, what does this mean?"

Dubai Hamas killing pledge by UK foreign secretary
Britain is determined to "get to the bottom of" how fake UK passports were used by the alleged killers of a Hamas commander, the foreign secretary says.

David Miliband described the use of six British passports as an "outrage".
.................
The Irish Republic has called in Israeli ambassador Zion Evrony, and France has also demanded explanations over the use of a false passport.

Mr Miliband said he "hoped and expected" Tel Aviv would co-operate fully with the investigation announced by Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

The inquiry will seek to explain how passports bearing the names of
...........
The Serious Organised Crime Agency has confirmed photographs and signatures on the passports used in Dubai do not match those on passports issued by the UK.

The men whose names appeared on the passports have dual British and Israeli citizenship.

...................
The details of the suspects and their passport photos were released by officials in Dubai earlier this week.

The Irish government has said passports used by three people believed to have been involved in killing a Hamas member had genuine numbers.

However, authorities said while the numbers were legitimate, they did not match records for the names which had been used - Gail Folliard, Evan Dennings and Kevin Daveron.

...................
It is 99%, if not 100%, sure that Mossad is standing behind the murder," Dubai police chief General Dahi Khalfan is quoted as saying by an Abu Dhabi-based English-language paper.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby gnair » 19 Feb 2010 04:44

I had a question for the gurus:-
Since BR is the biggest India centric open source intelligence collection site around, how much is it visited and maybe referred by the big bosses of intelligence in our country?
I doubt they are even computer literate!! :-?

shyams
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyams » 19 Feb 2010 05:16

Marten wrote:I am familiar with CR's work - known the family for years


You are one guy I would not want to piss off then :)

I wonder if RAW could not find evidence against the satarp you mentioned, and just leak it, like any conversations between them etc. I know, I know,... its just wishful thinking.

mohan
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby mohan » 19 Feb 2010 05:18

gnair wrote:I had a question for the gurus:-
Since BR is the biggest India centric open source intelligence collection site around, how much is it visited and maybe referred by the big bosses of intelligence in our country?
I doubt they are even computer literate!! :-?


Many people visit BR - and perhaps you might be surprised at who all can be 'computer literate'.

As an example of BRF's profile, there are many visible, stellar members of BR who have served in various capacities in the armed forces, some of whom have already participated in this thread. While I am sure the admins/ senior members have a better idea, I am certain that BR is visited by many, from many different backgrounds. Perhaps though, it is best not to bring undue attention to that fact.

regards,
Mohan

shyams
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby shyams » 19 Feb 2010 05:23

gnair wrote:I had a question for the gurus:-
Since BR is the biggest India centric open source intelligence collection site around, how much is it visited and maybe referred by the big bosses of intelligence in our country?
I doubt they are even computer literate!! :-?


I am pretty sure they do. We are shaping the future of our country unknowingly :).

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Anujan » 19 Feb 2010 05:46

gnair wrote:I had a question for the gurus:-
Since BR is the biggest India centric open source intelligence collection site around, how much is it visited and maybe referred by the big bosses of intelligence in our country?
I doubt they are even computer literate!! :-?


Dont underestimate Indian babus.

Saree clad wimmens with thick glasses and balding fat bellied babus programmed the Indian railway reservation system in the 80's! Before the "Internets" became famous with the "hip" crowd.

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Jarita » 20 Feb 2010 01:29

Have you guys seen this - from August 2009

http://www.scribd.com/doc/19293977/Dest ... f-Pakistan
Ex-ISI chief says purpose of new Afghan agency RAMA is to destabilize Pakistan

ramana
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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby ramana » 20 Feb 2010 01:54

The name RAMA itself is great psy-ops!

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Re: Intelligence & National Security Discussion

Postby Carl_T » 20 Feb 2010 02:28

Marten wrote:I am familiar with CR's work - known the family for years

...how "familiar"? :P


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