Caucasus Crisis

namit k · Post by **namit k** » 10 Aug 2008 01:41

one thing that worries me too much is the georgian stand. why would such a small country try to engage russia even knowing the result-full destruction/invasion. does the US influence on any countryworks to that extent of self destruction? how do they do it ? should this logic be seen in context to Indo-pak tensions,that pak already is in such dilemma that it could get what it wants.(started by arms supply to pak)
or is it for sure that US will evoke paki animal when it wants to curb India, maybe a decade from now? or is it not? they are already playing with pakis in their homes ,had huge presence ?
or going for a long term does that means that they will be able to persuade us against china actively? (while in that process, they get arms contracts-old div/rule policy)
replies please

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 01:46

Friends, some of you loss a need for justification: if Russia has started unlimited bombardment of Iraq style, it whould loss moral legitimation, especially in Georgia itself. Now after two days of Saakashwili madness, any opress against him and even against the Georgian population will be look much more justified. BTW, the mil. airstrips and ports WERE heavy bombed with aircrafts including strategic aviation (Tu-22M3s). For the tactical support Su-25 - is just exellent aircraft, like the American Thunderbolt. Georgian arty is working behind the Georgean viliges around Tshinvali, so if Russian Smerch/Uragan fist attacks it, this could be next humanitarian catastrophe. Of course I cannot exclude it in near future.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2008 01:56

Igorr, there are reports that one frogfoot and one tu-22 has been downed (confirmed by Rus Army spokesperson).

regarding the tu, do you know which version ? and any details of its downing ?

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 02:01

Rahul M wrote:Igorr, there are reports that one frogfoot and one tu-22 has been downed (confirmed by Rus Army spokesperson).

regarding the tu, do you know which version ? and any details of its downing ?

It was Tu-22M3 Backfire was down while bombed from high altitude, i.e. some western AAM were involved.

BTW, Putin's explaination for Russian position: http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/confl ... _georgia-0

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2008 02:06

a backfire, that's a big loss !!

western AAM ?? fired from which platform ?? Don't know of any western AAM capable Georgian fighter aircrafts !

namit k · Post by **namit k** » 10 Aug 2008 02:10

tu-22 may be down due to some technical failure , georgia doesn't seems to have AAM capability or really US forces are there?
saw video in which russian bombers were operating at very low altitude

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 02:29

As I understand, there were peacekeeping forces on the border. The Georgians killed the peacekeepers (10 or more Russian peacekeepers murdered) and then invaded the city inside S. Ossetia.

I saw some report that the Georgian attack was precipitated by a S. Ossetian attack on Georgian soldiers, but I didn't see that corroborated anywhere.

I am deeply sorry that Georgian civilians are dying and suffering, but as I understand, large numbers of S. Ossetian civilians are also dead because of the Georgian action, and much of their city is destroyed. I would say that the Georgian government's top layer has to be destroyed.

Russia is not India, and maybe Russians are a bit more sensitive about idiots killing their soldiers, than Indians are. Maybe after the Chechen experience, they figure that it's better to deal with the rats on their border before they start getting too fat.

'Bye 'Bye Shaashikashvili I guess.

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 03:01

Rahul M wrote:a backfire, that's a big loss !!
western AAM ?? fired from which platform ?? Don't know of any western AAM capable Georgian fighter aircrafts !

It was from the ground. May be also S200, supplied by Ukraine.

The order of battle:

Last footage, Georgian attack's reppeled:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzfLljgv7ko

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 03:28

This quarter is near Georgian military base and it has suffered from Russian bombardments:
http://drugoi.livejournal.com/2691106.html#cutid1

and this is a footage about a woman, who was blocked in the crashed house with her killed son:
http://www.youtube.com/user/russiatoday?ob=4

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 10 Aug 2008 03:50

I sincerely hope we do not turn this thread into US bashing thread. Any country which takes it upon itself to kill 12 Russians peace keepers will invite retaliation from Russia. This fact is not lost upon Americans. They have pointed this out to Georgians.

Both US and Georgia are sovereign nations as such US has right to offer military advisers to Georgia. Russians are not thrilled about it but they have accepted this reality.

I hope US will stay neutral in this fight because blame clearly lies on Georgia.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 10 Aug 2008 04:18

The U.S. military was also reviewing plans for the possible evacuation of the more than 2,000 of its citizens in the Republic of Georgia, two military officials said Friday.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08 ... index.html

(Are these the military advisers that need evacuation?)

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 06:01

Well, the S. Ossetians are "separatists" hey? Apparently they triggered the attack from Georgia, and anyway, per the Georgians they were simply protecting the integrity of the country. Its not so clear where the real blame is, and simplistic answers are not to be found. Were Russian "peacekeepers" providing cover for insurgent attacks on the Georgian civilians? What would you expect the Georgian army to do under those circumstances? They may have decided to take the risk and do a hot-pursuit. Brave.

Vick · Post by **Vick** » 10 Aug 2008 07:02

If NATO/US play their cards right, a portion of the Russian military could be bogged down for years in the SO and Abkhasia region. With Georgia having no one else to turn to other than NATO/US for help, NATO/US can ask for anything in return... thinking more ABM radars and/or interceptors... directed against Iran of course

If/when Russia manages to maul Georgia really badly in this exchange, Georgia will have no other course other than to screw right back by joining NATO without reservations. Now, the few Georgians that were opposed to NATO membership can see what not having NATO protection can mean.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 07:20

If the Russians think through it, they will see that the only endgame that works is a regime controlled by Moscow in Tbilisi. Warsaw Pact model. Given that it is all-out war, Russia would be stupid to do a ceasefire without solving the whole problem, for all the reasons that you cite. Obviously they can't afford to have yet another NATO-protected hate-filled border state.

Vick · Post by **Vick** » 10 Aug 2008 07:24

My prediction: All of a sudden "regime change" won't be a dirty term in BRF

But you are right, it is absolutely in Russia's interests to convert Georgia into another Belarus.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Aug 2008 07:33

I have seen tv footage of what were two SAMs climbing vertically. so the georgians do
have some AAD capability. sending in high flying Tu22 without targeting the SAM infra
was a mistake imo. frogfoots can fly at treetop level and evade most of sam threat.

georgia was a member of soviet union and there must have been plenty of georgians
in the old army. they are not cowards or sdre - they have teeth and will fight.
US will no doubt provide lots of intelligence help and maybe even send in green berets
to organize resistance.

if moscow wants a musharaff installed in tbilisi they have to see this through until
mechanised columns enter tbilsi and also id a who is the next Emir.

with turkey on the edge of islamist domination, losing georgia would be a blow to
nato ambitions in the caucasus for sure. the rest of the states have been pulled
or kept in Russian orbit.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 07:40

"The city of Tskhinvali no longer exists. There is nothing left. It was wiped out by the Georgian military," the Russian news agency Interfax said, quoting the Russian ambassador to Georgia, Vyacheslav Kovalenko.

Tskhinvali residents who survived the bombardment by hiding in basements and later fled the city estimated that hundreds of civilians had died. They said bodies were everywhere, according to The Associated Press.

Given that, the Russian reaction seems about predictable.

Alexander Lomaia, secretary of Georgia's National Security Council, said dozens of Georgian troops had lost their lives.
"Our losses are mounting ... as many as 40 military servicemen killed and over 100 wounded," he said. "The losses are also mounting among civilian population in the cities." Lomaia said Georgian troops in Tskhinvali were engaged in fierce ground battles on Saturday with Russian troops, whom he said were engaged in a full-scale military operation. The operation included tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery, soldiers and paratroopers, Lomaia said.

Military aircraft were crossing the Georgian border about every 15 minutes, he said, hitting civilian, economic and military targets. He said that at least 50 military jets were being used.
"Frankly, we have not expected the Russian invaders to hit our residential buildings, to hit our peaceful cities, to hit our peaceful citizens," he said.

Supprise, supprise??

Putin's press secretary told Interfax that the premier was concerned about the flood of refugees arriving in Russia from South Ossetia. Russian officials said that more than 30,000 refugees have left South Ossetia and crossed into Russia over the past two days, Interfax reported.
"The actions of the Georgian authorities in South Ossetia are a crime, of course, primarily a crime against their own people," Putin said.
"This aggression led to numerous casualties, among civilians in particular, and virtually caused a real humanitarian catastrophe. And that is already a crime against the Ossetian people," he said....
"At the same time I would like to stress that Georgia has always been greatly respected in Russia and Georgians regarded as brotherly people," the premier said.

Russians struck several major targets Saturday, including the Black Sea port of Poti, an airport, a major pipeline and a military base and train station in Senaki in western Georgia, Lomaia said. Georgian officials said that a center housing civilians had also been hit. Eight Georgians died in the port town, Georgian officials said. The Kodori Gorge in upper Abkhazia -- a second breakaway province in Georgia -- was also bombarded by at least 12 Russian jets, Lomaia said. Georgia's public television station reported a second round of bombings in Abkhazia at just before 11:30 p.m. Military bases at Vaziani and Marneuli also came under attack, the British Foreign Office said, and Russian aircraft bombed the Georgian town of Gori, about 35 miles northwest of Tbilisi, Georgian officials said. An Associated Press reporter who visited Gori shortly after the Russian airstrikes Saturday saw several apartment buildings in ruins, some still on fire, and scores of dead bodies and bloodied civilians. The elderly, women and children were among the victims.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 10 Aug 2008 07:55

I hope the Russkies repeat chechenya part deux , flatten Georgia and get somebody like Ramzan Kadyrov to lord over Georgia.

The EU mooks as usual have rushed over to negotiate a cease-fire.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Aug 2008 08:16

anyone know what was the stance of Edouard Shevardnadze who was the last foreign minister of the soviet union (gorbachev era) then went on to become president of his native georgia ?

seems quite a drop from seasoned vets like those to this small time Musharaff now lording
over the ruins...

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 10 Aug 2008 08:20

Which is this tank ?

What are those tiles ?

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 08:21

Shevardnaze came very close to war with Russia IIRC. But managed to do his style of brinkmanship very well. This dummy has blown it, big-time.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Aug 2008 08:21

The tiles are "reactive armor", right? Explodes outward when hit by projectiles, thus blocking the blast wave from penetrating the armor.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Aug 2008 08:29

yes - era bricks.

excerpt from NYT:

Soon afterward, the Russian Duma held hearings on recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova. Moscow argued that the West’s logic on Kosovo should apply as well to these ethnic communities seeking to free themselves from the control of a hostile state. And then, in mid-April, Mr. Putin held out the possibility of recognition for the breakaway republics.

Now things began to degenerate rapidly. On April 21, Mr. Saakashvili called the Russian leader to demand that he reverse the decision. He reminded Mr. Putin that the West had taken Georgia’s side in the dispute. And Mr. Putin, according to several of Mr. Saakashvili’s associates, shot back with a suggestion about where they could put their statements.

Mr. Saakashvili, prudent for once, shied from uttering the exact wording, but said that Mr. Putin had used “extremely offensive language,” and had repeated the expression several times.

Mr. Saakashvili was shaken by the naked hostility. He already feared that the West, or at least Europe, would never rally to Georgia’s side in a crisis; and here was Mr. Putin saying that the West’s support meant nothing to him. Here, indeed, was 1938.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Aug 2008 08:32

if I read the tea leaves right, the additional 'tower' atop the turret is some new
version of the Arena defense system. uses a mmw radar to track incoming RPG, ATGM
type projectile and fires a explosive charge at right time on inbound axis to detonate
or deflect the weapon. does not work against faster stuff like tank shells.
weight is said to be about 1 ton.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 10 Aug 2008 08:44

wont be good for the infantry standing next to the exploding bricks right ?

Or maybe I am reading this wrong.

In an open environment the inf will ofcourse be on BMPs and IFVs, but in an urban env they will on foot providing cover against ambushes of AT and RPgs.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 10 Aug 2008 08:53

Russia will consider ceasefire and withdrawal of forces only after Georgia returns to pre-clashes status-quo and pulls its troops from “occupied” areas of South Ossetia, Vitaly Churkin, the Russia’s UN ambassador, said.

But he also stressed that return to status-quo should no way apply to the Russian forces currently fighting with the Georgian troops in the region.

“There must not be any illusions about that,” Churkin said. “In order to consider withdrawal of our forces we must make sure that there is no chance of genocide there.”

He was speaking after an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council – the third one in last few days. The Council has again failed to reach an agreement on the wording of an appeal for an end to the hostilities.

“There is a straightforward way to stop fighting, to stop killing: for Georgians to withdraw and then to have an agreement on non-use of force signed and then we can talk on other verity things, including [on] military and political arrangements,” Churkin said.

President Bush has also called for returning to the August 6 status-quo, but said it should be done by the both sides.

President Saakashvili said Tbilisi was ready to demilitarize the region if the Russian troops pulled out; international forces should fill the vacuum, he added.

The Russia’s UN ambassador said that the Russian forces in South Ossetia were engaged in “peacekeeping operation.”

He justified Russia’s air strikes outside South Ossetia by the need to undermine “certain Georgian military activity, which is supported from outside of South Ossetia.”

Scores of civilians were reportedly killed after the Russian warplanes dropped bombs in the town of Gori, close to the South Ossetian conflict zone. Port of Poti, military base in Senaki, airfields in Marneuli and Kopitnari were also targeted.

“We are not targeting any civilians. If there are any civilian casualties – that you can not rule out – this is of course deeply regrettable,” the Russian diplomat said. “There have been some reports of bombings outside the territory of South Ossetia and if there were some, they were in the context of support of peacemaking operation [in South Ossetia].”

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 10 Aug 2008 09:08

Saakashvili video

Vick · Post by **Vick** » 10 Aug 2008 09:35

It's good to see flashpoints developing right on the Rodina's edges. Should keep it occupied for a while and the new hate filled enemies of Russia, that Russia's strong arm tactics are creating, will be more than willing to do NATO/US bidding in the future.

Topol-M didn't deter Tblisi, it would appear.

Losing a Backfire type asset on the first few days of the conflict is pretty inept. Especially considering that the missile(s) that shot it down was most likely Soviet in origin.

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 10 Aug 2008 09:52

Nayak wrote:wont be good for the infantry standing next to the exploding bricks right ?

Or maybe I am reading this wrong.

In an open environment the inf will ofcourse be on BMPs and IFVs, but in an urban env they will on foot providing cover against ambushes of AT and RPgs.

You are absolutely correct. Sending armor alone without infantry support especially in urban environment is suicidal. Thus the catch 22.
Avram.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 Aug 2008 10:03

It looks like the Georgians planned a quick operation to seize the rebel capital and present the Russians with a fait accompli. This did not work as planned and the speed of the Russian reaction is something they do not seem to have anticipated.

From what I can gather so far...

The Russian units actually in South Ossetia, as of Sat night, are a regiment sized group from the 19th Mot division (150 tanks and APC's). The rest of the division is moving in.
There was TV footage of the 20th Guards Div (HQ Volgograd) moving south. (Igor posted the ORBAT of the 58th Army earlier).

2 Russian aircraft were confirmed lost (SU-25 & TU-22). The Georgian air force has pretty much ceased to exist.
I believe the Russian reaction, far from being inept, was actually fast. Even if it is only a brigade sized force acting on what must be a contingency plan, their forces still had a lot of ground to cover, in a hostile environment.

If the Russian Black sea fleet gets into the act, Georgia would lose the infrastructure of ts only port.

Russia seems to have held back from massive esclation (more air power and cruise missiles) and in the process its actions seem to be a measured response to a Georgian declaration of war.

Vick · Post by **Vick** » 10 Aug 2008 10:09

Deans wrote:Russia seems to have held back from massive esclation (more air power and cruise missiles) and in the process its actions seem to be a measured response to a Georgian declaration of war.

No doubt that Russia can put the smack down on pipsqueak Georgia. That was never in doubt. Why do people consider Georgia trying to reintegrate its own territory as an act of war against Russia. Russia has no official claim on S. Ossetia as a part of Russian territory.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 10 Aug 2008 10:11

Vick wrote: Losing a Backfire type asset on the first few days of the conflict is pretty inept. Especially considering that the missile(s) that shot it down was most likely Soviet in origin.

The TU-22 Blinder (not Backfire) that was lost, is an aircraft of 60's vintage.

Shivani · Post by **Shivani** » 10 Aug 2008 11:33

BSR Murthy wrote:Saakashvili video

He needs to work on his body language. Very easy to tell when he lies or speaks a half-truth.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 10 Aug 2008 11:48

Deans wrote:
Vick wrote: Losing a Backfire type asset on the first few days of the conflict is pretty inept. Especially considering that the missile(s) that shot it down was most likely Soviet in origin.
The TU-22 Blinder (not Backfire) that was lost, is an aircraft of 60's vintage.

conflicting reports. Igorr says, earlier in this page that it is a backfire.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Aug 2008 12:27

Shakashvili has "gone over the brink" in this piece.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... gia.russia

Thomas de Waal The Observer, Sunday August 10 2008

The Caucasus is the kind of place where, when the guns start firing, it's hard to stop them. That is the brutal reality of South Ossetia, where a small conflict is beginning to spread exponentially.

"Leave aside the geopolitics for the moment and have pity for the people who will suffer most from this, the citizens - mostly ethnic Ossetians but also Georgians - who have already died in their hundreds. It is a tiny and vulnerable place, with no more than 75,000 inhabitants of both nationalities mixed up in a patchwork of villages and one sleepy provincial town in the foothills of the Caucasus.

Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili seems to care less about these people than about asserting that they live in Georgian territory. Otherwise he would not on the night of 7-8 August have launched a massive artillery assault on the town of Tskhinvali, which has no purely military targets and whose residents, the Georgians say, lest we forget, are their own citizens. This is a blatant breach of international humanitarian law. "

PS:Shakashvili is now crying himself hoarse as the inevitable Russian counterattack gains momentum.He has brought this entirely upon himself and ther is no way that Russia is going to take this lying down.In fact,from PM Putin's latest statements,it now spells the end of Russia recognising S.Ossetia as part of Georgian territory,where it sent in peacekeepers to keep the region quiet.S.Ossetiaa and Abkhazia will now definitely become independent entities with stroing ties to Russia.It remains to be seen whether NATO will keep open its offer to admit Georgia as a member,as such recklessness by a small member state could drag it into armed conflict with Russia! Russia should also enforce a naval and air blockade of Georgia demanding a return of Georgian forces to their barracks and compensation from Georgia who started the war,for the massive damage to S.Ossetia and the large loss of life there.

Avsprinzl makes two important points,the first being about Kosovo,the heartland of Serb religion and culture,where the Albanian minority have been massivly supported by the US and NATO for the enclave to break away and form an independent state.By the same yardstick,S.Ossetia and Abkhazia should also be allowed the same privilege.The second is that Russia needs the goodwill of the Georgians in its conflict with the Chechens,who are neighbours.A Georgian-Chechen linkup would result in a truly catastrophic war for the region.A massive loss of civilian life in Georgia must be avoided,as it can still play its cards and get the adventurer Shakashvili booted out of power.

Another very important factor That must be mentioned,is that through Georgia runs a vital pipeline that allows for an alternative route instead of through Russia for the export of Caspian oil from Azerbaijan,reportedly possessing the world's third largets fields!The foll. article gives more details.

Georgia's oil pipeline is key to U.S. support
Anne Gearan, Associated Press

Saturday, August 9, 2008

There is more than meets the eye to the frantic U.S. efforts Friday to talk Russia and American ally Georgia out of war over an obscure mountain tract most Americans have never heard of.

A look at the map and your gas credit card bill shows why.

The breakaway province of South Ossetia is claimed by Georgia, a former Soviet republic that cast its lot with the United States and the West to the eternal irritation of Moscow. But South Ossetia has resisted Georgia's rule and has been under Russia's sway for years.

Georgia sits in a tough neighborhood, shoulder to shoulder with huge Russia, not far from Iran, and astride one of the most important crossroads for the emerging wealth of the rich Caspian Sea region. A U.S.-backed oil pipeline runs through Georgia, allowing the West to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil while bypassing Russia and Iran.

The dispute makes the Bush administration the middleman between a promising ally it wants to help and the powerful former adversary next door whose help it needs.

Washington praises democratic development in Georgia, delights in its contribution of combat troops for Iraq and acknowledges valuable intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation.

Moscow's cooperation is vital to numerous Washington aims in Iran, North Korea and elsewhere.

"For all those reasons, and the fact that Georgia has demonstrated that it is a close ally, we cannot simply sit by and say, 'So be it - what does South Ossetia mean to us?' " said Janusz Bugajski, director of the new European democracies project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Georgia as a whole means quite a lot."

The pipeline that crosses Georgia can pump slightly more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, or more than 1 percent of the world's daily crude output. The 1,100-mile pipeline carries oil from Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea fields, estimated to hold the world's third-largest reserves. Its potential vulnerability was already in the spotlight after it was sabotaged this week, apparently by Kurdish separatists.

Most of the oil is bound for Western Europe, where gas prices are even higher than the $4 and more a gallon that U.S. consumers are now paying. With only so much oil to go around, what the pipeline carries affects prices elsewhere. The United States also hopes it will be a model for other development projects that could have a more direct effect on the U.S. market.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was on the phone Friday morning, appealing for calm in South Ossetia, a patch of craggy farmland that is home to about 70,000 people - fewer than live in Youngstown, Ohio. In a statement later, she reiterated U.S. commitment to Georgia's "territorial integrity."

President Bush discussed the violence with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Beijing, while the presumptive Democratic and Republican candidates to replace Bush issued worried statements. Tanks rolled as Bush spoke.

South Ossetia is one of the few places where ethnic, nationalist and other complications mean that the Cold War didn't die. U.S diplomats refer to these neighborhood squabbles as "frozen conflicts," a euphemism that belies the long-recognized threat that seemingly petty disputes can easily provoke a wider war.

The United States, European nations and others raced Friday to keep the conflict from spreading. The State Department appealed for a cease-fire and prepared to send a mediator to the region.

"We are asking our friends, and the United States among them, to somehow to try to mediate and try to persuade Russia to stop this military aggression and invasion of Georgia," said Vasil Sikharulidze, Georgia's ambassador to Washington.

This article appeared on page A - 3 of the San Francisco Chronicle

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 13:02

Singha wrote:if I read the tea leaves right, the additional 'tower' atop the turret is some new
version of the Arena defense system. uses a mmw radar to track incoming RPG, ATGM
type projectile and fires a explosive charge at right time on inbound axis to detonate
or deflect the weapon. does not work against faster stuff like tank shells.
weight is said to be about 1 ton.

No, it's not Arena on the tanks. It's a simple armored curtain. The tanks are an old T-72B modification with early 80th K-1 ERA. It's useless against modern subcaliber munition or tandem cummulative missiles. It's good enough against classic RPGs, prevailed in Chechnya. I think the Russian generals could regret now that they didnt deploy T-90s or at least T-80U in Caucasian region. Unfortunately the Russian MoD purchase and deployment strategy is far from ideal... Sometime to be discussed in the Armor thread.

Shivani · Post by **Shivani** » 10 Aug 2008 13:05

Philip, seems like Russians have already sent out the message to west. Loud and clear. Stay off or the oil stops flowing.

Russia stages raid near key oil pipeline: Georgia

Sat Aug 9, 11:42 AM ET

TBILISI (AFP) - Russian warplanes on Saturday staged a raid near a major international oil pipeline that runs through Georgia but did not damage it, Georgia's prime minister said.

The 1,774-kilometre (1,109-mile) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline is the world's second longest and takes oil from Azerbaijan to Western markets.

Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze told Georgian television: "The area of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline was bombed by Russian planes. Miraculously, the pipeline was not damaged."

The BTC has a capacity of 1.2 million barrels of oil a day but is currently shut down after an explosion in a Turkish section which has been claimed by Kurdish rebels.

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 13:16

Deans wrote: The TU-22 Blinder (not Backfire) that was lost, is an aircraft of 60's vintage.

According to my knowlege all Tu-22s of old models were scrapped. The loss in the first day doesnt wonder me, since the main unknowns are at the starting. Isnt US stelth aircraft was hit at the early stage of Yugo conflict? The level of bombardement activity is high if they used strategic aviation and even ground-ground missiles, so some losses of crafts are inevitable, they can fall even due to the technical causes. The Georgians just dont show the results of Russian attacks on their military sites, but according to internet-wittnesses, the casuality level is rather high.

Now the Abhasians started war too. In addition, Russian sunk Georgian boat with a missile.
http://ru.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOlQ6zyOh0

Shivani · Post by **Shivani** » 10 Aug 2008 13:22

Conflicting reports about naval blockade.

Russian navy blockades Georgia

MOSCOW - A news agency says the Russian navy has deployed ships to blockade Georgia's Black Sea coast.

The Interfax news agency says the Moskva missile cruiser and other Russian Black Sea Fleet ships have been deployed to Georgia's coast to prevent any weapons supplies.

A Russian navy spokesman refused to comment on the report Sunday

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 10 Aug 2008 13:49

Shivani wrote:Conflicting reports about naval blockade.

Turkish boats with marines are staying near Batumi too. I think, a possible marine blocade will not be efective since the military equipement still could transferred via terrain from Turkey, Azerbajan. May be Russians want to take some addition territory on the coast to use as a trumped card in negotiation?