Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

ramana
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby ramana » 30 May 2013 23:48

Before Abe took over the dialog between India and Japan was how to transfer the japanese mfg capacity from China to India. Now it is being implemented.
Japan wanted some free trade zones along the Mumbai to Delhi corridor and Banglore to Madras corridors. Plan was to shift mfg capacity to these zones.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Theo_Fidel » 31 May 2013 01:32

Agree on the Bangalore Chennai corridor. I am slowly transferring my investments to this area. I expect there to be 50 million+ folks living in this belt in my lifetime.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Gus » 31 May 2013 19:39

TN census out.

agri sector labor has reduced from 49 to 42%

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/t ... 769431.ece

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Prem » 01 Jun 2013 01:47

Theo_Fidel wrote:Agree on the Bangalore Chennai corridor. I am slowly transferring my investments to this area. I expect there to be 50 million+ folks living in this belt in my lifetime.


This should be for all BRites Bhais. This area will have global economic impact within a decade .

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Suraj » 01 Jun 2013 09:12

Hopefully economic mismanagement has plumbed the depths of incompetence and cannot get any worse:
FY13 economic growth at decade-low rate of 5%
The rate of economic growth refused to rise significantly in the fourth quarter of 2012-13, up only 4.8 per cent over the same quarter a year ago. Sequentially, too, the rise was marginal compared with the two-year-low rate of 4.7 per cent in the third quarter. The fact that the low base of 5.1 per cent growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2011-12 could not lift economic expansion in the quarter suggested the wait for the so-called green shoots of recovery might get longer.

The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in full 2012-13, at a decade low of five per cent, turned out to be the same as that projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its advance estimates released in February. The finance ministry had been pinning its hopes on better fourth-quarter numbers to push the annual growth figures a bit higher.

Demand in the economy remained low, as private final consumption expenditure rose just 3.81 per cent in the fourth quarter, against 4.15 per cent in the previous quarter. Also, gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for investment rate, grew just 3.43 per cent, against 4.5 per cent in these two quarters.

However, the government's better management of its finances helped it compress expenditure. Its final consumption expenditure rose just 0.64 per cent, against 2.15 per cent in the last two quarters. This enabled the Centre to rein in its fiscal deficit at 4.89 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, against 5.2 per cent pegged in the revised estimates.

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said: "I think there is evidence that the economy has bottomed out but we don't yet have evidence of strong recovery."

The largest sector of the country's economy - trade, hotels, transport and communication -drove GDP growth in 2012-13, expanding at 6.4 per cent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 5.2 per cent pegged in advance estimates. The actual growth rates seen in most other sectors was, in fact, lower than the February estimates.

The mining & quarrying sector, which contracted 0.6 per cent against the advance-estimate projection of 0.4 per cent growth, was the worst-affected. This was a second straight quarter of contraction for the sector.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Austin » 01 Jun 2013 10:47

Seems like Chidu and his clan made enough money for them self and dont see corruption a major problem I guess atleast not for them :lol:

Corruption not as big problem as it is projected: P Chidambaram

WASHINGTON: Acknowledging that corruption is a problem in India, Finance Minister P Chidambaram today said that it is not as big as it is being made out to be.

"It is a problem but no more than in most other countries," Chidambaram told the popular Charlie Rose Show in an interview when asked if corruption a big problem in India

"Wherever I go, I open the newspaper and I find there are charges of corruption against the government of the day. I admit that, it is a problem. But it's not as big a problem as it is made out to be. To say that everyone is corrupt is I think an outrageous charge," he said.

"We are tightening our laws. We're having an ombudsman. We have this extraordinary instrument called public interest litigation which any citizen can file in the higher courts including the Supreme Court, exposing corruption.

"And above all, we have one of the most independent, fiercely independent media in the world which every day is exposing quote, unquote, 'corruption' of one kind or another," he added.


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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Prem » 03 Jun 2013 03:12

India's Sun Pharma in talks to buy Sweden's Meda for $5-$6 billion: sources
http://news.yahoo.com/indias-sun-pharma ... 13477.html

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd is in talks to buy Sweden's Meda AB for between $5 billion and $6 billion to boost its generics business in developed markets, two sources with direct knowledge of the process said.Meda makes specialty products, over-the-counter drugs and branded generics - the same areas of focus as Sun. The Swedish company had sales of about 13 billion crowns ($2 billion) in 2012 and has a stock market value of roughly $4 billion.
Mumbai-based Sun is India's most valuable drugmaker, with a market capitalization of some $20 billion, and has made several acquisitions in recent years.But a deal for Meda would be the largest yet for a company which had cash of 40.6 billion rupees ($722 million) at the end of March.
If it goes through, the transaction would be the latest in a string of multibillion-dollar deals involving generic and mid-sized drug companies.Such deals include the planned $5 billion purchase of Warner Chilcott Plc by Actavis Inc and Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc's $8.7 billion acquisition of Bausch & Lomb."Sun Pharma is in an extremely sweet spot with a low amount of debt and strong organic business growth," said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Global Securities in New Delhi."While this (deal) shows their aggression, they should play it a little carefully in terms of valuation," he said. "It can put the balance sheet under stress."
Buying Meda would give Sun access to Dymista, an allergy medicine that received U.S. approval last year and is viewed by analysts as having good potential. The inhaler product is manufactured and supplied to Meda by Cipla Ltd, an Indian rival of Sun.
Other Meda drugs have not performed so strongly in recent times, however, and its core earnings or EBITDA fell 16 percent last year. Analysts forecast core earnings to be flat in 2013, making its enterprise value of around 10 times EBITDA relatively expensive, according to one banker.
Sun is in talks with a clutch of banks to raise funds for a possible deal, the sources said, declining to be identified. They did not say how far along the discussions were, or how likely it was that a deal would be reached.But the recent pace of acquisitions in the sector may suggest Sun would not have much trouble securing funding."There have been a lot of deals and money is cheap if they (Sun) need to borrow," said Lars Hevreng, an analyst at SEB Equity Research in Stockholm.
Possible rival bidders could include Valeant, which considered acquiring Meda in 2011, according to a source familiar with the situation speaking at the time. But Valeant may have its hands full integrating eyecare group Bausch & Lomb.Clinching any deal is likely to hinge on the position of Sweden's Olsson family, which owns more than 22 percent of Meda as well as shipping, metal processing and property assets.A spokeswoman for Sun declined to comment. Meda was not immediately available for comment.Shares in Meda hit a 5-1/2-year high on the report, rising as much as 8 percent before pulling back to stand 3.4 percent higher by 1425 GMT. Sun shares closed down 2.8 percent in a broader market that was off 2.3 percent.Last year, Sun bought U.S.-based Dusa Pharmaceuticals Inc for about $230 million, as well as URL Pharma from Japan's Takeda Pharmaceutical Co for an undisclosed amount.It also sought to buy out minority shareholders in its U.S.-listed Israeli subsidiary Taro Pharmaceutical Industries for $571 million before withdrawing the proposal earlier this year.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Vipul » 04 Jun 2013 19:47

India’s blue-collar wage revolution.

To repeat a well-worn cliché, India is best described as a land of paradoxes. For instance, although economic growth sagged in the past two years, house prices rose by 26% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2012-13 (3QFY13), with annual increases being recorded at in the range of 20% y-o-y over the past two years. On the external account front, while a deteriorating current account deficit (CAD) is typically a feature of a country experiencing high growth, India’s CAD stood at an all-time high level of 6.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 3QFY13 even as the GDP growth rate fell to a low level of 4.5% y-o-y in the same quarter.

Given that the Indian economy seldom fits into the mould created by textbook economics or even by plain intuition, getting to the bottom of these anomalies typically yields a wealth of information. One such anomaly is that of large wage increases. Although India is arguably in the midst of the worst economic slowdown in a decade, wage growth for blue-collar workers been recorded at a staggering rate of greater than 15% compounded annual growth rate over the past two years (see accompanying chart). Be it wages earned by farm labour, unskilled rural labourers, construction workers or urban household help, why are blue-collar wages rising relentlessly in India?

One convenient answer that is often bandied about is that the government’s flagship rural welfare scheme, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), is driving up wages by, in effect, setting a minimum wage. However, a closer look at the numbers suggests that MGNREGS is being credited with far too much, as the scheme is too small to be singularly responsible for triggering the massive blue-collar labour shortage problems seen in India today. More importantly, utilization levels of this scheme are low and are, in fact, declining as MGNREGS provided employment for a mere 54 days on average to Indian rural households in FY10 and only 36 days by FY13.

Primary checks in states such as Maharashtra and Karnataka suggest that a reverse migration wave is driving the labour shortage in labour-user states. Labour contractors highlight that a combination of improved governance and a sharp pick-up in GDP growth in traditional labour-supplier states such as Bihar and Chhattisgarh has resulted in increased demand for labour in these states. This has triggered a decrease in labour availability in states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab, which have historically relied on labour-supplier states for their requirements.Whilst this partially explains the labour shortage in labour-user states, the plot thickens, as a comparison of wage growth across Indian states suggests that wage growth in labour-supplier states such as Bihar, too, has been high over the past two years and that even these states are suffering from a labour shortage.

One labour contractor in Bihar, who hires unskilled workers for loading and unloading cement gunny bags, captures the underlying reason behind this succinctly. This second-generation contractor says: “A decade ago the workers we used to hire had never seen a textbook. Today several workers have been part of the formal education system for 4-5 years and aspire to educate their children for 10 years.” Thus, the demand for higher education in labour-supplier states is largely responsible for crimping labour supply growth. This is corroborated by literacy data, where the most profound increases in literacy ratios have taken place amongst the traditional labour-supplier states. For instance, while the all-India literacy ratio has increased by 9 percentage points between 2000-01 and 2010-11, the literacy ratio in Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh has risen by 17, 14 and 13 percentage points, respectively, over the same period.

Further, data suggests that women’s labour participation rates have declined, particularly since FY05, as a rising number of women are now choosing to pursue education. The fact that women’s literacy rates are rising at a faster rate than those of men corroborates this dynamic.
In the times ahead, we expect both the reverse-migration wave as well as the rising demand for education to persist. Alongside this, we expect high growth rates in labour-supplier states to continue given that ambitious regional leaders like Nitish Kumar of Bihar or Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh have built their careers based on the growth turnaround in these states. There is an additional factor at work. Since India has a youth literacy rate of 81%, less than the global average of 84% for lower middle-income countries, it is reasonable to expect the ongoing demand for higher education to continue in the foreseeable future.

The upshot of the persistence of these trends is that wage growth for blue-collar workers is likely to continue in high double-digits in the coming years.This, in turn, is likely to ensure that entry-level, aspirational, consumption will remain resilient. This new surge in consumption will include products such as soaps, detergents, light electrical goods, paints and branded pressure cookers. However, on the flip side, the increasing bargaining power of blue-collar workers is likely to mean that sectors such as automobiles, automobile ancillaries and capital goods that rely on labour for production will have to bear the brunt of rising labour costs.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Austin » 04 Jun 2013 20:23

Houses prices keeps rising in India because it is funded by huge black money from politicians ,underworld and builder lobby, inspite of the economic slow down you will find prices of house keeps skyrocketing ...making it unffordable for vast majority to buy and even if middle class indians buy it they end up with huge bank loans , ofcourse all the black money wala make fat profit over the sale.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Theo_Fidel » 04 Jun 2013 20:34

Vipul, thanx.
--------------------------

Anyone know how fast productivity is rising?

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby panduranghari » 05 Jun 2013 18:31

ramana wrote:Suraj,

Sun is rising seven years early!!!

India is probably the world's 3rd largest economy now:OECD

India probably world's third largest economy:
PTI | May 29, 2013, 10.36PM ISTLONDON:

India has probably surpassed Japan to become the world's third largest economy after the US and China, Paris-based think-tank OECD said even as it lowered the country's economic growth projection for 2013 to 5.3%.

"China will likely pass the United States as the world's largest economy in the next few years and India has probably recently surpassed Japan to be third largest," said the OECD Economic Outlook report.

Until around 2020, China is set to have to highest growth rate among major countries, but could be then surpassed by India, it further said.


OECD also said that by early 2030s, the BRIICS' (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) combined GDP should roughly equal that of the OECD (based on current membership), compared with just over half that of OECD now.

"Between now and 2060, GDP per capita is seen to increase more than 8-fold in India and 6-fold in Indonesia and China," it added.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which in November had projected India to grow at 5.9% in 2013, cautioned that structural bottlenecks in the country could further constrain investment and growth potential.

"GDP growth is projected to rise gradually over the next two years... Significantly more growth would be forthcoming if structural bottlenecks were swept away by fundamental structural reforms," the report said.

Looking ahead, it said India is likely to improve growth to 6.7% next year, after having logged a decade's low of 3.8% in 2012.

OECD said the world real GDP is projected to increase by 3.1% this year and by 4% in 2014. Across OECD countries, GDP is projected to rise by 1.2% this year improve to 2.3% in 2014. Growth in non-OECD countries will rise by 5.5% this year and 6.2% in 2014.



India has been a third largest global economy as early as march -April 2011. Its just the financial media never bother with due diligence.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby svinayak » 06 Jun 2013 11:56

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-Uni ... dent_Obama

By end of Dec 2010 Indian economy had crossed Japans
The visit of various leaders was an ack


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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby krisna » 07 Jun 2013 00:26

India’s Ponzi-styled economic reforms run out of steam

India’s particular brand of economic reforms can be analogised to a Ponzi scheme. Every year, state-owned enterprises and public assets are privatised in the name of asset reallocation, at throwaway prices. On top of that, every year tax-breaks or subsidies amounting to nearly US$100 billion are handed out to private industries in the name of reform or liberalisation. A small part is then recycled to the citizens in the name of social welfare. This structure is not sustainable, and is bound to fail as the Ponzi schemes in India have been failing.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby svinayak » 07 Jun 2013 02:06

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/2 ... 8J20130223
India poised to issue bank licences to corporate players



1 of 4. An employee counts currency notes at a cash counter inside a bank in Mumbai June 21, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/Rupak de Chowdhuri/Files
By Shamik Paul and Neha Dasgupta
MUMBAI | Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:24pm IST
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian companies from any business sector will be allowed to seek entry to the country's banking industry as the government looks to bring banking services to the large proportion of the population without bank accounts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced rules that would allow any type of company to apply for a banking licence, paving the way for India's first new banks since the formation of Yes Bank (YESB.NS) in 2004.
Draft rules issued in 2011 had barred companies in the property and brokerage industries from applying, and disagreement between the central bank and finance ministry over exclusions had slowed the release of the final rules.
Some critics, including the International Monetary Fund, had also voiced concern over the possibility of new banks issuing potentially risky loans to their related companies.
However, the final rules on Friday did not make any particular exclusions.
The move to issue new bank licences is intended to increase competition and bring fresh capital to an industry dominated by state lenders and reaches only about half of Indian households. Newly licenced banks will be required to open 25 percent of their branches in rural areas that lack banking services.
"India has a huge population of unbanked ... and the real concern is financial inclusion," said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.
APPLICANTS LINING UP
At least 10 companies, mostly from the financial services sector, are expected to apply for licences. L&T Finance (LTFH.NS), part of construction and infrastructure conglomerate Larsen & Toubro Ltd (LART.NS), and billionaire Anil Ambani's Reliance Capital (RLCP.NS) are among those that have said they are keen to apply.
The RBI will allow applications until July 1 and successful applicants have a year to set up a bank. New banks must make a stock market listing within three years - one year longer than had been proposed in the draft rules.
The RBI said licences will be issued on a "very selective basis" to applicants with "an impeccable track record".
The rules are intended to ring-fence a company's regulated financial services operations from the rest of the group, the RBI said on Friday.
"What is good is that the RBI has put in a lot of checks and balances. The exposure norms they have defined have taken care of all the risks that people would have been worried about," said Naresh Makhijani, executive director at KPMG.
Religare Enterprises Ltd (RELG.NS), Aditya Birla Financial Services and Mahindra Financial Services (MAHM.NS) all said on Friday that they plan to apply for licences.
(Additional reporting by Suvashree Dey Choudhury, Subhadip Sircar, Nandita Bose and Archana Narayanan; Writing by Tony Munroe; Editing by David Goodman)

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby chola » 07 Jun 2013 02:42

panduranghari wrote:
India has been a third largest global economy as early as march -April 2011. Its just the financial media never bother with due diligence.


The financial media is currently mainly Western and financed by those Westerners who sell things. Unless India buys enough stuff to warrant mention, they won't mention it.

It is not a minor issue either. Unless our middle class start to consume like a real middle class, India will never get the investment push from the West that basically built out the Far East. What we get now are liquid asset bets that can be unloaded in a hurry. Which in turn poses extreme danger in rapid swings for the rupee and the economy.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Singha » 07 Jun 2013 07:24

consumption can only be sustained if there is guarantee of swift economic growth for decades. else its just a personal debt trap.

unless the physical infra is fixed west and east would be happy to manufacture and design outside india and just ship the finished products for sale.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby paramu » 07 Jun 2013 21:23

chola wrote:
panduranghari wrote:
India has been a third largest global economy as early as march -April 2011. Its just the financial media never bother with due diligence.


The financial media is currently mainly Western and financed by those Westerners who sell things. Unless India buys enough stuff to warrant mention, they won't mention it.

Indians dont care if the western media mention Indians or not.

India will take time to be a consumption based economy and Indian product companis and Indian multinational companies will be dominant. Investment has to flow to these companies. Financial media companies in India will be owned by these Indian companies

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby sudarshan » 07 Jun 2013 21:29

Another significant fact is that based on the GDP PPP numbers, India is now bigger than UK and France put together. And China is almost as big as UK, France, and Germany put together. Highlights the shift in balance of power like nobody's business.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Suraj » 07 Jun 2013 21:57

I'm not really bothered about lack of per capita consumption spending, but wage growth remains rather low, preventing people from at least putting aside money as savings, that go into investment from the banking sector. For the moment, we need greater fixed asset investment - say upto 40% of GDP, for a decade or more. We're just too undeveloped in that regard right now.

An article to make you go hmm - wheat piles up unused:
India's wheat stocks pile higher, exports stall on quality, price
India's wheat stocks had piled up to 44.4 million tonnes by June 1, government sources said, more than a quarter of the world's total, as it fails to meet export targets because of high prices and quality constraints.

India uses the stocks to distribute cheap grain in one of the world's biggest food subsidy programmes which is set to be increased further under a proposed new law.

But bumper harvests - the latest of which has just rolled in - have swamped government warehouses and left stocks lying in sacks under tarpaulin, vulnerable to rot and rats.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Austin » 07 Jun 2013 22:26

With the Food Security Bill on the anvil of getting passed by UPA the stockpile of wheat wont be enough to feed 60 % of our population but on the positive side it wont end up rotting in warehouse or eaten by rats etc.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby paramu » 07 Jun 2013 22:51

Some of the quality is less than for human consumption

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Abhijeet » 07 Jun 2013 23:27

Comparisons based on PPP numbers are fine as a self esteem booster, but not much more. Especially for a country that manufactures so little internally as India, the PPP number gives a highly inflated value of how much purchasing power people have because most things have prices comparable to those in developed economies. You can clearly see this in the consumption figures for even basic household items.

PPP is fine for those goods that are produced largely with domestic parts and labor, or non-tradeable services (haircuts). The PPP GDP numbers would make more sense if they separately valued such items from others.

As it stands, PPP calculations take a set of basic items which are generally locally priced, and applies that multiple to the entire economy. This is a gross over simplification and results in numbers which are out of touch with reality.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Theo_Fidel » 07 Jun 2013 23:44

Abhijeet, au contraire...

USA - 16 million washing machines.
India - 7 million washing machines.

Just a random statistic.

USA - Consumes 800 Million tons of coal.
India - Consumes 600 Million tons of coal.

PPP has some real thought behind it. Though one should be careful not to get carried away.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Suraj » 07 Jun 2013 23:46

PPP has its own place when it comes to reporting GDP, just as absolute figures do. They've their own flaws. As countries with low cost labor develop, they all follow the typical process wherein during the low development phase services/labor is relatively cheap, while goods are relatively costly. As they develop and industrialze, it happens the other way around - goods become relatively cheaper and services become costlier, because rising per capita incomes dictate that service providers charge more for their services, while automated production of goods makes them relatively cheaper.

This kind of self-goal scoring when such positive news is reported, is completely unnecessary. I haven't seen anyone of any nationality chime in 'oh but it is on PPP terms onlee!' when several news websites and think tanks recently reported recently that PRC would overtake US in size of economy around 2017. Instead people just shivered violently in their dhotis.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Arjun » 08 Jun 2013 08:21

The stock market starting to differentiate between Modi and no-Modi future. CLSA is among the most respected bunch of stock market analysts:

Investment cycle to pick up pace in FY14: Christopher Wood, CLSA

The biggest election risk, Wood said, is neither Congress nor BJP winning sufficient seats to form a government, leading to a 'Third Front', a loose coalition of regional parties, forming the government, which can be a possibility, if not a probability. The most positive outcome for elections from the point of view of stock market sentiment would be the formation of a BJP government, led by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as it would trigger expectations of much more pro-business policies.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Abhijeet » 08 Jun 2013 12:44

Suraj, you're making my point for me. Worrying about self goal scoring and other H&D issues is best left to our western neighbors. We should be more concerned about whether PPP GDP numbers provide an accurate representation of the size of the Indian economy, and indirectly of Indian purchasing power. It's clear to me that they do not.

Theo, could you quote your sources? I'm not an expert on the washing machine market in India, but a bit of quick Googling turned up this market research report: http://www.adi-media.com/PDF/TVJ/annual ... chines.pdf. According to that document, the total market for washing machines in India for FY2011 was 4.7 million units. It's probably increased since then. I'm not sure what it is for the US but your sources should be interesting to look at.

I'm sure you're aware of market saturation issues which will affect sales of consumer durables in developed economies (when everyone has a washing machine, the only sales will be due to replacement + population growth). The more accurate comparison is with China, which also has many first-time buyers like in India, and which has sales several multiples larger for most things.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Abhijeet » 08 Jun 2013 12:50

Anyway, lest I come across as some dour pessimist, I should point out that I'm happy to see things improve in India. If Indian markets are getting too large to ignore for global companies (as they are in a few areas), good for us -- that increases Indian power in the world in a way that few other things can. But looking at the wrong metrics is a form of self deception and not very useful.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Austin » 08 Jun 2013 16:56

paramu wrote:Some of the quality is less than for human consumption


By our standards or that of west ?

I doubt any farmer will grow something that it cannot sell in indian market because its not fit for human consumption , like the quality deteriorates when they are stored in warehouses without proper facility and then it deteriorates over time.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby chola » 08 Jun 2013 20:29

Seriously, an own goal? In what game are we talking about? This is our forum. If we cannot be truthful here without worrying about scoring an "own goal" to the handful of outsiders here (and I can literally count no more than 5 non-Bharatis in all the time I've been a poster) then why bother discussing anything at all?

The world is decided in the boardrooms, corporate and otherwise. Winning points in front of a few goras who happens across our site will not change the numbers those movers and shakers see.

We are not a paki forum given to illusions.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby chola » 08 Jun 2013 21:06

Abhijeet wrote:Anyway, lest I come across as some dour pessimist, I should point out that I'm happy to see things improve in India. If Indian markets are getting too large to ignore for global companies (as they are in a few areas), good for us -- that increases Indian power in the world in a way that few other things can. But looking at the wrong metrics is a form of self deception and not very useful.


Absolutely. It makes no sense and it gains us nothing. Many of us in the US corporate sphere pushed the "India Shining" campaign wherever we could.

But the numbers simply never add up. Many desis who made their bones in the industry on the Asian growth angle go all out for postings in Beijing and Shanghai not Delhi and Mumbai because the numbers are there even in spite of the intrinsic distaste for chini statistics. Because earnings that flow back to headquarters do not lie.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby sudarshan » 08 Jun 2013 21:49

Abhijeet wrote:Suraj, you're making my point for me. Worrying about self goal scoring and other H&D issues is best left to our western neighbors. We should be more concerned about whether PPP GDP numbers provide an accurate representation of the size of the Indian economy, and indirectly of Indian purchasing power. It's clear to me that they do not.


Fine. We'll all wait for a perfect representation of the size of the Indian economy, then. Because none of the measures that we have right now are accurate (as I'm sure you know?). Not absolute GDP, not per capita absolute GDP, nor any of the PPP or Gini coefficient measures, nor HDI measures, nor even a composite of all of these.

So let's all hold off on making any judgments of relative or absolute sizes of economies until we develop a perfect measure.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Theo_Fidel » 09 Jun 2013 01:57

Also I have been tracking the electricity generation capacity. Right now Indias generation capacity including the private/captive generation is roughly 250-260GW. We overtook Russia a year or two ago. Up ahead is Japan with 270 GW. Technically we have already overtaken Japan, as Japans 60 GW of Nuclear is essentially offline. But ignoring that 'minor' issue sometime in the next year we will overtake Japan in electric capacity. We are still adding about 15GW of capacity every year. That will put only USA & China ahead of us. Making us #3 in electricity capacity as well with overtaking the USA within our sights by 2030+/-.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby vera_k » 09 Jun 2013 10:55

chola wrote:But the numbers simply never add up. Many desis who made their bones in the industry on the Asian growth angle go all out for postings in Beijing and Shanghai not Delhi and Mumbai because the numbers are there even in spite of the intrinsic distaste for chini statistics. Because earnings that flow back to headquarters do not lie.


For one of our products, sales in China exceeded US sales for the first time ever in 2012. India meanwhile was way down the list, not even in the top 15. Unless cultural preferences account for the disparity, I believe India GDP is overstated, while China is understated.


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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby chola » 09 Jun 2013 18:42

vera_k wrote:
chola wrote:But the numbers simply never add up. Many desis who made their bones in the industry on the Asian growth angle go all out for postings in Beijing and Shanghai not Delhi and Mumbai because the numbers are there even in spite of the intrinsic distaste for chini statistics. Because earnings that flow back to headquarters do not lie.


For one of our products, sales in China exceeded US sales for the first time ever in 2012. India meanwhile was way down the list, not even in the top 15. Unless cultural preferences account for the disparity, I believe India GDP is overstated, while China is understated.


The chinis deliberately understate their economy to cheat in trade regimes like the WTO. It's been known for years among MNCs that China had a consuming economy at least several times larger than the official line. You cannot have a car market 150% the size of the US's one with an economy that is supposedly only 50% as large. It is economically impossible.

It is an insidious approach that most Indians often can't understand. We assume that the chinis like the USSR overstate their economy. But that is entirely wrong if you understand international trade and the mercantile approach of East Asia to it. Whether it's chinis, japs or koreans, they always understate their economies to gain advantages in tariffs and market access. They always manipulate their currencies lower, never higher, to win overseas market share.

We need to know the exact state of our own economy otherwise we'll be fighting an unending battle to maintain equilibrium on the rupee and our budget. An overstated GDP makes our bloodsucking babus and netas spend more than the nation can actually afford. It pushes the rupee into a level we can't sustain.

The central bank fights to keep the rupee from collapsing because the actual economy cannot support the official GDP levels. The chinis on the other hand fight to keep their yuan undervalue which means there is upward pressure to go above the official GDP levels.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby satya » 09 Jun 2013 20:34

In India ,people who have real money ( ie black money for some ) they spend/invest on three things : land , gold & if possible offshore bank a/c. Its next to impossible with current data-collection ways to measure the amount going in land, gold & offshore bank a/c . I can say for one , quantity and amount ( in cash sitting or say missing in desh (excluding foreign a/c) for someone very high recently demised is in mutiple of 1000K crores & he was not that high up .There are lockers apart from those available with Bank for cash storage only in homes for small timers & warehouses for big ones, how much in them is anyone's guess .
As for numbers , i can say from my personal experience that as per govt. revenue records there has been no crop on my farmland for last 10 years , no conspiracy just government working . I don't think in my limited experience that India economy is overstated .

Real indian economy exist in mandis, bazaars & small town/cities very much outside the Govt. numbers. Correct me if i am wrong but where's the statistics on rough diamond production in one of our naxal-hit states. Why this number never comes up ? Does is it mean there's no mining or cause no listed mining company is mining there?
Last edited by satya on 09 Jun 2013 20:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby Theo_Fidel » 09 Jun 2013 20:35

Yes China understates, this is why PPP number is used. Similarly PPP number is used for India as well. I would say Indian widget market is saturated and fragmented with thousands of manufacturers offering every conceivable product. Recently at a Big bazaar I counted 55-60 different tooth paste manufacturers on one row before I simply gave up. All were indistinguishable from a Colgate. In China an MNC is able to stroll in and walk away with 10% of the market over night. Hard to do this in India. A few have succeeded, Unilever India has done very well at this.

----------------------------------
[quote="Austin"]No Country For Countrymen

Hmm! So he is arguing for folks to abandon their factory jobs and go to the rural country side to farm their 1/3-1/2 acre plot of land, at least during monsoon season. Apparently this is how China operates. Where do they find these people. :-?

But he is right in stating that no one knows what to do with the fifth standard fails in the cities. Need to get them a proper education before they can become productive.

In Porur Type Areas in Chennai, You can buy a 1 BHK flat in less desirable areas of indeterminate build quality and questionable amenities for 5-8 lakhs. If you really want to dumpster dive you can get one for 4-5 lakhs. These are being scarfed up by the rural folk in bucket loads. How much cheaper does he want city living to be....

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Postby gakakkad » 10 Jun 2013 07:16

vera_k wrote:
chola wrote:But the numbers simply never add up. Many desis who made their bones in the industry on the Asian growth angle go all out for postings in Beijing and Shanghai not Delhi and Mumbai because the numbers are there even in spite of the intrinsic distaste for chini statistics. Because earnings that flow back to headquarters do not lie.


For one of our products, sales in China exceeded US sales for the first time ever in 2012. India meanwhile was way down the list, not even in the top 15. Unless cultural preferences account for the disparity, I believe India GDP is overstated, while China is understated.



zam zam cola sales of pakistan are way above that of India. surely baki economee is understated while Yindia overstated.


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