Indian Economy - News & Discussion 27 May 2012

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Jun 2013 11:58

Guru log,

The rupee is bleeding in trading. Is this a cause for concern?

Or all is well!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Jun 2013 12:05

All is well says GOI , Emerging Market Currency are depreciating

Sri · Post by **Sri** » 10 Jun 2013 12:58

Rupee depreciating is good news. At current level of inflation CAD the current value should be above 60.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Jun 2013 13:58

A weaker rupee wouldnt make import costlier and inflation would rise ?

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 10 Jun 2013 14:10

The value of the rupee should be market driven. Whether it goes up or down is then a reflection of its demand.

Unfortunately a pestilence of Central bankers meddling around with currencies and trying to "manage" economies is sweeping the globe.

They think they are micro-managing the currency & stock markets to glory. All they really doing is pulling levers and pushing buttons with nobody knowing what the long term consequences of such meddling with money printing will be. We'll all find out soon enough however - hopefully before they wreck the entire economy.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 10 Jun 2013 21:14

Indeed, the long term secular trendline says the exchange rate would be at INR 61 to the $. It can overshoot or undershoot by a bit, so no need to worry just yet.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 10 Jun 2013 21:59

Money is needed for election (by Maino clan that is). I will later share my finding, 50% of their votes is 'purchased'. A depreciated rupee is good, 1 dollah goes a long way to buy then.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Jun 2013 01:10

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2 ... ver-india/
In Global Currency War II, Shots Fired Over India

Japan’s Central Bank may want a weaker currency, but the Reserve Bank of India wants nothing to do with a weaker rupee. On Tuesday, the RBI stepped in to save the currency with major currency purchases as the rupee slipped to a new low.Weaker currencies don’t always make a country more competitive, at least not immediately. It’s a combination of things: labor costs, location, scale. But one thing is for sure, since the 2008 crisis there has been what some call a currency war going on. The big guns are from the Fed, weakening the dollar for a number of reasons. One is to help make U.S. goods cheaper to acquire. Then came the European Central Bank. Call that Currency War I.Now with Japan weakening the yen, we have Currency War II. Korea is complaining about it. And now India is starting to worry about it. The RBI wants to save the rupee. Exporters worry that other competing countries are getting cheaper as their currencies slide even faster.India’s rival markets are watching their currencies fall and now some exporters are starting to worry, The Economic Times reported on Wednesday. Indonesia and South Africa, for instance, both compete with India in global textiles, agri-products, engineering goods, electronics and chemicals. On Tuesday, the rupee hit an all-time low of 58.98 against the dollar before the RBI stopped the blood letting. One rupee gets you about $0.17. It’s down 6.26% year-to-date.
But exporters are watching their rivals get even cheaper. The South African Rand is down 15.78% year-to-date.Currency War II is a new phase. Call it the “something’s gotta give” phase. Economists at Ashmore Group think that emerging market central banks will turn to different currencies instead of the euro, yen and dollar. They might buy more gold. But they will likely buy more of each other’s bonds. Then again, that would only make their currencies stronger.As Asian markets see their currencies slip, China remains a standout. The market is waiting to see if they’ll join the fight and weaken the yuan now that the economy is slowing more than anyone expected, with the second quarter GDP seen coming in at 7.4%, below first quarter growth of 7.7%. The yuan has been strengthening all year against the dollar, up 1.58% year to date, but Beijing could reverse course if the fog of war starts to float over the mainland.
Arvind Mayaram, secretary at the department of economic affairs, told reporters in New Delhi Tuesday that the demand for dollars to buy gold has declined from a peak of $227 million to $7 million a day. The Reserve Bank of India sold dollars today as the rupee’s rapid fall threatened to unsettle government accounts and revive fears of a credit rating downgrade. India is one country that wants no part in the race to the bottom in the world’s fiat currencies. The question now is whether the rupee is done falling? If it’s not, the RBI will likely take the bullets.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jun 2013 03:11

Satya, One day I hope you take Chiddu's current job.

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 13 Jun 2013 04:43

$1 = Rs. 58! WTF is going on?

People have been predicting the collapse of the US dollar for close to a decade now. In 2007 when INR-USD was Rs. 39 we had posts on BR about how it would steadily go to Rs. 20.

Other countries have dysfunctional governments too but a depreciation of close to 50% in 6 years must be a record for an economy of India's size.

I think the GDP has already dropped below $2 trillion, and further depreciation is going to make it harder to rise above that level again. More importantly, it will make things even more expensive in India than they already are.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Jun 2013 06:24

krisna wrote:India’s Ponzi-styled economic reforms run out of steam

India’s particular brand of economic reforms can be analogised to a Ponzi scheme. Every year, state-owned enterprises and public assets are privatised in the name of asset reallocation, at throwaway prices. On top of that, every year tax-breaks or subsidies amounting to nearly US$100 billion are handed out to private industries in the name of reform or liberalisation. A small part is then recycled to the citizens in the name of social welfare. This structure is not sustainable, and is bound to fail as the Ponzi schemes in India have been failing.

Great article. This ponzi scheme is what Sonia/MMS are doing to screw India. The so called Economist and how he is screwing India.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Jun 2013 07:00

students who are going abroad for studies are facing lot of extra cost this yr due to exchange rates.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 13 Jun 2013 07:02

India’s Apollo in $2.5bn deal for Cooper Tire

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/41d45c42 ... z2W3BuXlE7

Apollo Tyres is to pay $2.5bn for one of the largest US tyre makers, in the biggest Indian acquisition of a US company to date.The all-cash purchase of Cooper Tire and Rubber is also the latest sign of the growing international focus on the car sector.Neeraj Kanwar, managing director of Apollo Tyres, said the deal would allow his group to “derisk” amid the slowdown in its core Indian market, where car sales have declined in recent months. Cooper is the fourth-largest US tyre manufacturer by sales and has a substantial European presence.Apollo announced on Wednesday that it would pay $35 a share in cash for Cooper, a 43 per cent premium to the closing price on Tuesday. The news sent Cooper’s shares up 40.5 per cent to $34.51. The combined company would be the seventh-largest tyre maker worldwide by sales, Apollo said, with about $6.6bn in annual sales.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 13 Jun 2013 10:09

^^^

Apollo tyres has that kind of cash in pocket that it can buy overseas. Amazing, and wonderful news. But at the same time yawn inducing as well. Cause over the last few years Indian companies have been doing this quite regularly.

Quite a departure from the irrational fears that Indian business will be gobbled up by the global players. Which led to resistance to liberalization in the first place.

OTOH, is the FM serious about turning the nation's economy around. Or it is just a psy ops.

Why Fitch’s revised ‘stable’ outlook on India is a breather for FM

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Jun 2013 12:28

could be leveraged deal. suzlon took on huge debt for foreign acquisitions like repower and landed in a big hole.
such deals are fine when economy is growing fast because people are always willing to bet on such economies.
ra-howl-raj is unlikely to be so.

the hospitality and office space absorption in blr is very slow at present. this used to be one of the highest absorption cities in the world for such space.

Abhijeet · Post by **Abhijeet** » 13 Jun 2013 12:46

It is entirely financed through new debt, not from cash reserves.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/06/1 ... 2Q20130613

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 13 Jun 2013 13:27

Govt looking forward to more reforms to spur investment: Chidambaram

What is it that he do, that will turn things around for the country.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Jun 2013 01:00

Two revisions in 24hrs, that's how bad India's statistics are

China has been grabbing the headlines of late for the shoddy state of its statistics. It seems India wants its share of the limelight. In a feat unlikely to be matched anytime soon, India corrected its factory output data twice in 24 hours.

The original press release on Wednesday stated that the Index of Industrial Production—a key component of GDP calculations—expanded 2% in April. A day later came the announcement that the index had actually grown 2.2%. And two-and-a-half hours after that, the government admitted that there had been errors in the collection of electricity sector data. The factory output for April was now 2.3%.

Though in this case the differences were fairly minor, such glitches and goof-ups are not new in India. January 2012′s industrial production was revised from 6.8% to 1.1%. The government’s excuse: an error in sugar output calculation.

Then in August 2012, India restated GDP data for the fiscal years 2009 and 2010 (i.e., from March 2008 to April 2010). Countries typically revise their initial GDP figures, but usually a few months later, not a couple of years. The markets were surprised to find that growth had been better than previously thought before the global economic crisis, but that the economy slowed much more than initially reported during the crisis.

It’s an open secret that outdated data are routinely used by India’s statisticians. Even the central bank governor D Subbarao admits that policy making is often “plagued by incomplete, inconsistent or non-timely data.” Surely India’s government could focus a little attention on collecting data that its own central banker can trust.

Inaccurate and late data means inability to respond with effective policy-making in time.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Jun 2013 01:40

I think India has hit stagflation. Next step recession.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 14 Jun 2013 09:26

from DNA -

Finance minister P Chidambaram has a simple solution to bring the economy back on track: People should stop buying gold for a year.

get lost chidambaram.

blaming people when your party effed up the economy in 10 years.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 Jun 2013 10:09

May be they want to re-empower the Dawood types. As people will keep on buying gold.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 14 Jun 2013 14:37

disha wrote:I think India has hit stagflation. Next step recession.

Disha ji,

Unfortunately recession is a mild way to put it.

It will be depression.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 14 Jun 2013 20:03

What does the CAD have to do with a recession?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 14 Jun 2013 20:22

The value of the currency will go up if we have money from outside coming in - via exports, investments, remittences, stocks - which will result in more demand for rupee ( to buy the dollars that is coming in ). High CAD is ensuring we have no dollar inflow. UPA is anti-business so that is driving the dollars away. Remittence is the only savior. Unless we can get back to a increase in dollar flow , INR will continue to loose value against it. India is a net importer or consumer so a weak currency is only going to make life hard here.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 14 Jun 2013 22:11

The biggest problem, which Suraj had mentioned a while back I think, is the falling exports. The Rupee may be below 58 now, but it has been quite weak (around 55) for quite a while now. This is supposed to help exports. Yet they have inexplicably fallen. This is a considerably deep hole we seem to be in with no ladder in sight. Chiddu is now talking about reforms. What reforms can fix this? Not to mention the fact that we have been hearing about reforms since Chiddu cam in. He hasn't actually done anything till now has he?

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 Jun 2013 03:54

Theo_Fidel wrote:What does the CAD have to do with a recession?

Do you not know, considering you have been spouting your knowledge on this forum for longer than I.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 Jun 2013 03:56

subhamoy.das wrote:The value of the currency will go up if we have money from outside coming in - via exports, investments, remittences, stocks - which will result in more demand for rupee ( to buy the dollars that is coming in ). High CAD is ensuring we have no dollar inflow. UPA is anti-business so that is driving the dollars away. Remittence is the only savior. Unless we can get back to a increase in dollar flow , INR will continue to loose value against it. India is a net importer or consumer so a weak currency is only going to make life hard here.

Thank you Subhamoy ji. Very well put.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 16 Jun 2013 05:08

I attended Dr. Subramaniam Swamy's lecture in Atlanta today. Among other things, he expresses his views on the Indian economy also. At the end of the lecture, some questions pertaining to the economy were put to him.

In answer to a question about why the Rupee is in a free fall, he said one of the reasons is that a number of politically-connected people, anticipating UPA losing the next election, are scrambling to convert their ill-gotten Rupees into Dollars. This has raised the demand for Dollars in the market.

When asked what is a sustainable growth rate for India's GDP, he said currently it is 8%. He explained it thus:

Sustainable growth rate of GDP = % of investment (A)/ Capital-Output Ratio (B)

He said A is currently 40%, and B is currently 5. Therefore the sustainable growth rate is 8%.

But, he said, with good (corruption-free) governance, B can be changed to 3, in which case the sustainable growth rate in GDP will be over 13%.

I am recounting all this from memory. Can econ gurus like Suraj please comment on the above if I understood it right?

TIA

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 16 Jun 2013 21:55

chola wrote:
Theo_Fidel wrote: I don't think this is correct at all. Plenty of countries including India manufacture at scale. China-SoKo-Jpn are built for exports. Most of their stuff is made for others. India manufactures for India.
This is actually most correct, Theoji. Most countries outside the developed world of the West plus Japan and the Asian Tigers cannot build industries of scale because they cannot generate enough market for it.
Every country manufactures for itself. But there is no scale because the local market is too piss-poor to afford more. The "well, they make things for others while we make things for ourselves" is a silly excuse.
Every one of those exporting nations you said manufacture for others (China, Japan and SoKo) also buys far more TVs, washing machines, etc. per capita than Indians. Not only do they produce more of the trappings of modern life, they consume more. And they consume more by many folds not a few percentage points.

I think the view from the ground may be missing with your comment.
India of 2013 is not India of 2000.

Back then Indian exports were about $35 Billion right now it is $350 Billion. For a $2 Trillion export country this works out to 15%-20% of GDP which is a very healthy number. Of course China & SoKo at similar stage were export unbalanced which is what you appear to be arguing for. Your comment that India does not have mass manufacturing for exports is head scratchingly wrong.

If you go to the area West of Chennai you will see km after km of manufacturing companies. Down the National Highway to Kanchipuram, 70km there is an endless series of factories and manufactures making every single conceivable product. The Highway to Thiruvallur is similarly packed with industries. In Coimbatore, Madurai And Thoothukudi the situation is similar with km after km of manufacturers. Do you know that the Hyundai factor alone, out of a half dozen others, exported 100,000 cars in the past 5 months. Do you know that indias largest single export is petroleum products.

India makes and consumes what it should at its manufacturing level. Roughly 5 million cars a year and ~ 7 million washing machines this year. Of course your standard tactic is to say 'china do more'. What I would say then go to china onlee. No loss to India.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 17 Jun 2013 08:46

Theo_Fidel wrote: For a $2 Trillion export country this works out to 15%-20% of GDP which is a very healthy number.

Its not a healthy percentage at all. India is much below the global average - whether one considers only merchandise exports or total exports as % of GDP.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Jun 2013 10:29

Kakkaji wrote:I attended Dr. Subramaniam Swamy's lecture in Atlanta today. Among other things, he expresses his views on the Indian economy also. At the end of the lecture, some questions pertaining to the economy were put to him.

In answer to a question about why the Rupee is in a free fall, he said one of the reasons is that a number of politically-connected people, anticipating UPA losing the next election, are scrambling to convert their ill-gotten Rupees into Dollars. This has raised the demand for Dollars in the market.

When asked what is a sustainable growth rate for India's GDP, he said currently it is 8%. He explained it thus:

Sustainable growth rate of GDP = % of investment (A)/ Capital-Output Ratio (B)

He said A is currently 40%, and B is currently 5. Therefore the sustainable growth rate is 8%.

But, he said, with good (corruption-free) governance, B can be changed to 3, in which case the sustainable growth rate in GDP will be over 13%.

I am recounting all this from memory. Can econ gurus like Suraj please comment on the above if I understood it right?

TIA

What Dr.Swamy said is exactly what was described here in the past - that with stable to rising investment/GDP combined with effective policymaking to ensure that the incremental capital output ratio remains low, the long term trend growth rate is given by investment/GDP (approx 33% now) divided by ICOR (between 4 and 5 now). Lowering ICOR (or B in your post) means less investment per additional Rupee of output generated. Higher rate of investment also generates higher returns in the form of greater growth. What we are seeing at present is a double whammy of bad administration lowering investment/GDP *and* raising ICOR, causing falling trend growth.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Jun 2013 11:40

Rupee fall, a problem from within?

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 17 Jun 2013 12:14

Dark storm clouds are looming over India's economic horizon.

I hope the babus are alive to the situation and making emergency plans.

Another repeat of 1990 where a sudden crunch in forex reserves is coming.

The foreign money that has rushed in is going to rush out with great speed.

I wonder if this act is a planned sabotage of the economies of developing countries or a cover for something else.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jun 2013 12:23

No doubt people are purchasing gold now. They do not trust UPA gang to do anything about economy.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Jun 2013 14:06

Why is no one talking about jobs?

Am surprised that this got published in todays environment.

The most important point raised in this article is

What else? How about fixing “Education”? And I don’t mean tinkering with things like “RTE”. I mean really “fixing” it. Re-building it from scratch, revamping the curriculum, getting accountability in the system and getting government out of it. In the end it is really about making the right choices. Choices such as:

Keep them busy digging holes vs. impart some useful skills
Helping entrepreneurs vs. guaranteeing employment
Creating vs. Distributing
Sense of Entitlement vs. Spirit of Enterprise

And focusing a bit less on those who “need help” and a bit more on those who can “offer help”. Making these choices & taking tough decisions is crucial so that India’s 500 million youngsters grow up with skills and knowledge better prepared for the world they face. Otherwise be prepared for a situation in which it may be better to get a robot than to hire Indian labour. That would not be nice. Would it? Jai Hind, Jai Bharat!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Jun 2013 14:25

Need employment plan for the world's most populous nation, circa 2028

Given the one-child policy's lock on China's fertility, nobody expected it to remain the world's most populous country forever. India had been projected to grab this title by 2045 or even 2035. But a new UN report notes that we are hurtling towards this 'takeover' faster than anticipated and will become the world's most populous country by 2028! In a world without agricultural revolutions, industrial expansion and technological innovations, this would have been alarming news. Today, we greet it with sanguinity.

China's wealth-generating factories have begun reporting labour shortages. As these shortages rise, so will wages. And then India with its expanding labour force should reap a huge demographic dividend. Unfortunately, all the data on job growth is disappointing. In a country that already has more than 1.24 billion people and about half a billion workers, only about five million are employed in manufacturing facilities that employ more than 10 people. More than half the manufacturing workers are in facilities without electricity. That's pitiful. Between 1981 and 2001, China moved 680 million people out of poverty and it did this with a single-minded focus on creating industrial jobs. Our government is focussed on other matters.

It's considering calling for a special session of Parliament for passing a food security law, after devoting mammoth energies to a rural unemployment guarantee programme. Quite apart from chronic wastefulness, such programmes fly in the face of truckloads of sensible data showing that it's economic growth not handouts that really moves populations out of poverty. MGNREGA is hardly a healthy substitute for gainful employment in higher value-added sectors than agriculture. Of course the government recognises that raising manufacturing's share in GDP from 15% to 25% over the next decade could provide jobs to more than 100 million Indians. But this would require manufacturing to grow at over 14% a year for the next 10 years as compared to growing at around 8% for the last 10 years.

India already ranks low in the Global Peace Index, actually benched alongside the likes of Afghanistan and Iraq. Now imagine a growing army of unemployed youth added to this volatile mix. The picture isn't pretty. The solutions are well known. Loosen the stranglehold on labour-intensive industries. Supply electricity. Revive SEZs. Push reforms in education. Make job creation a policy priority. How about a special parliamentary session to address this problem?

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 17 Jun 2013 15:09

F. No. 1(3)/2013-EPL
Government of India
Ministry of Commerce and Industry
Department of Commerce
Economic Division
********
New Delhi, the 17th June, 2013
PRESS RELEASE
INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE: MAY, 2013
A. EXPORTS (including re-exports)
Exports during May, 2013 were valued at US $ 24505.66 million (Rs. 134807.62 crore)
which was 1.11 per cent lower in Dollar terms (0.13 per cent lower in Rupee terms) than the
level of US $ 24779.72 million (Rs. 134983.82 crore) during May, 2012. Cumulative value of
exports for the period April-May 2013 -14 was US $ 48670.03 million (Rs. 266203.05 crore) as
against US $ 48568.66 million (Rs. 258239.33 crore) registering a growth of 0.21 per cent in
Dollar terms and growth of 3.08 per cent in Rupee terms over the same period last year.
B. IMPORTS
Imports during May, 2013 were valued at US $ 44649.26 million (Rs.245619.14 crore)
representing a growth of 6.99 per cent in Dollar terms and 8.04 per cent in Rupee terms over
the level of imports valued at US $ 41733.45 million ( Rs. 227336.72 crore) in May, 2012.
Cumulative value of imports for the period April-May, 2013-14 was US $ 86600.99 million (Rs.
473734.59 crore) as against US $ 79540.94 million (Rs. 423225.26 crore) registering a
growth of 8.88 per cent in Dollar terms and growth of 11.93 per cent in Rupee terms over the
same period last year.
C. CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:
Oil imports during May, 2013 were valued at US $ 15022.3 million which was 3.05 per
cent higher than oil imports valued at US $ 14578.3 million in the corresponding period last
year. Oil imports during April-May, 2013-14 were valued at US $ 29107.3 million which was
3.47 per cent higher than the oil imports of US $ 28131.8 million in the corresponding period
last year.
Non-oil imports during May, 2013 were estimated at US $ 29627.0 million which was
9.10 per cent higher than non-oil imports of US $ 27155.2 million in May, 2012. Non-oil
imports during April - May, 2013-14 were valued at US $ 57493.7 million which was 11.84 per
cent higher than the level of such imports valued at US $ 51409.2 million in April - May, 2012-
13.
D. TRADE BALANCE
The trade deficit for April - May, 2013-14 was estimated at US $ 37930.96 million
which was higher than the deficit of US $ 30972.28 million during April - May, 2012-13.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 17 Jun 2013 23:37

One more knock on the right-left dialog. http://www.firstpost.com/blogs/3-indias ... 76705.html

Bharat is the term that refers to traditional India. Whether one thinks of pre-colonial Indian native society as good or bad, there is no doubt that such a society has survived for a very long time, and that many pockets of India still live in traditional lifestyles deeper than mere symbolism and ornamentalism. Today, Bharat has been invaded by both Sensex India and Maoist India, albeit using different reasons and different methods. The Sensex Indians are following imported right-wing capitalist models that are said to have emerged from the Protestant Ethic in the West, and they are frantically “developing” the civilisation of Bharat by westernising it. The Maoist Indians are following imported left-wing models to redress their grievances. Each attacks Bharat with its own imported theories, and each offers its own kind of promise for a better society. The important thing is that both are foreign nexuses based ideologies, and both are tearing Bharat apart. I predict that neither Sensex India nor Maoist India will score an absolute victory, but that this war will break up India sooner than most Indians are willing to admit.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 18 Jun 2013 00:56

(Cross posting--Relevant to multiple threads.)

Walk the Talk with Shekar Gupta: 'Capitalism is changing caste much faster than any human being. Dalits should look at capitalism as a crusader against caste'

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/capit ... /1127570/0

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2013 01:08

Hindu Graphic on India's Trade