See below image of the vote share of parties in TN for LS 2014http://www.postimg.com/image/150000/ls_2014_tn_voteshare-149420.jpg
pandyan wrote:rajaram saar and krishnan saar - what happened in TN? how come despite power cuts and water problems, admk still managed to retain the seats.
for bjp/coalition, there were too many unknown faces representing the party. hope there is more grassroots level focus to grow the party.
In current LS elections - ADMK, DMK, INC were all standing alone (maybe not DMK ... but only by a small number of 4 seats) and they stood in all 39 seats in TN. The vote they got is a bit commensurate to their true standalone mode pulling power in TN. ADMK=~44%, DMK = ~26%, INC = 4.3% ADMK
(44.3%) - (37/39)
In what is a new news - ADMK has managed to bag 44% ... their normal standalone pulling power was set at a max of 35% ... but they got extra 9% and this is converting to winning margins all being in excess of a minimum of 1 Lakh votes in almost all seats. Maybe it is also due to the very early start they had .... when announcing candidates & started canvassing as against other parties. They came 3rd only in Kanyakumari and have come 2nd in Dharmapuri - otherwise its a clean sweep by large margins. So they seem to have had 44% all around in an uniform way. Maybe this was because of the distrbution of Laptops/Mixies/Grinders/Fans & really good education setup in schools & good PHCs with ambulance facilities all around. Better medical insurance & delivery of same for poor people, better pension facilities & delivery of same for poor & widows. Better PDS facilities.More than Industrial & Infrastructural Development work - AMMA has worked on freebies & welfare areas in last 3 years and people are getting immune to power cuts (more during 3/4 month period from Feb till June of the year .... since huge Wind power gets activated in the time from June till October & power cuts don't happen ... and during monsoon & winter periods cooler weather comes into picture until February ... leading to lesser power consumption). Very low corruption in this AMMA regime. Maybe the freebies got more of the young people vote for them. But in reality ... it would appear that they would have ~40% voter % support.DMK
(26-28%) - (0/39)
DMK's fair voter support % is until now accepted to be between 25 & 28 %. So in this case - they have got somewhere near 26% (if you add VCK & IUML's vote share to DMK). They have a solid base among minorities ... particularly Ms & Cs. But youngsters & newbies are not warming up to them - it seems. The hangover of 2011 corruption & family-rule drubbing seems to remain among people. Also their association with INC in UPA-2 is also affecting them. Then .. the effect of Alagiri in some of the Southern TN seats cannot be ruled out. So even though Stalin tried hard - he couldn't push the vote % higher. The DMK & DMDK harped well on TASMAC (maximum source of revenue for state ... government controlled alcohol marketing & vending concern) related increasing alcohol addiction in TN, continuing power cuts and lack of Industrial Development ... but that stain didnt latch on to ADMK. So that extra almost 9% vote that pushed ADMK to 44% in a uniform fashion across all seats - seems to have been crucial to get ADMK big victories & increase their tally to 37 out of 39. Performance of DMK looks very weak even though they maintained their vote share but couldnt build on top of it.BJP
(5.4%) - (1/8)
BJP has got 5.4% from ~8 seats ... since they didn't contest in Nilgiris and this is better than 5.1% for DMDK & 4.5% for PMK & far better than INC's 4.3% (taken over all 39 seats). Most of the increase in % must be due to MODI factor ..since they are still very weak in cadre base & RSS is not a strong entity in TN. But some base to work on.DMDK
- (5.1%) - (0/14)
DMDK has shown 5.1% voter support and spread over 14 constituencies. they seem to have ~ 10% voter share spread evenly around in entire TN. But unable to get that to earn seats for themselves. But the votes they got this time ..indicates a slight uptick compared to LS 2009 elections and could well be due to Modi factor.PMK
- (4.5%) - (1/7)
Pure Casteist party.INC
(4.3%) - (0/39)
INC looks quite weak. Lots of reasons for people to be angry about them .... Anti-Incumbency, Corruption, SriLankan Tamil issue and weak cadre base ... but a good rapport with TN Minorities still exists. They used to have a standalone % of 12-15% some 10 years before. But nothing now like that.
Will be interesting to see how these parties line-up & combine in the next 2016 TN Assembly elections.