General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Muppalla
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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Muppalla » 15 May 2014 21:40

vivek.rao wrote:Yep. Looks like 7% of Congress/Other MP voters switched to Jagan (5%) and TDP (1%) in assembly.

Still there is only 1% different. I am hoping statistical error/margin give us better result of Naidu 90 and Jagan - 80


ShyamSP wrote:Recent results don't corroborate the numbers. YCP is leading in only 2-3 districts. Only explanations may be voters switched loyalty in a few weeks (between Municipal and General elections) or massive fraud ensued in general elections.

Hellish AP:
TRS+MIM with Jr. Owassi as Home Minister. YCP with Jagan as CM.


It is no surprise there on votebank shift from INC to YCP. Otherwise YCP couldn't have done much in Coastal. Main question is PRP went to YCP or not.

Results showed ratios as TDP:YCP :: 56:44


First of all it is being shown here as there is a 3% of cross voting. Assuming that is true and it is a statistical dead-heat and TDP is 45% and YSRC is 46%, but still there is no way in the world that the seats will be more for YSRC. The gap has to be to beyond 5% for YSR to defeat TDP. The reason is Jagan will have big gap is four southern districts which means TDP leads YSRC in Northern districts. Number of seats are high in the districts above Krishna river.

But yes the race is very close. In addition, the municipal and zp,mpp polls are all a landslide for TDP.

saip
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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby saip » 15 May 2014 21:41

9:45 and counting. May be we should have a countdown clock!

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby SaiK » 15 May 2014 21:44

a clock-wise dilbu's whine?
and then finally c(l)ocked dilbu's wine!
Last edited by SaiK on 15 May 2014 21:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby KJo » 15 May 2014 21:44


SandeepA
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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby SandeepA » 15 May 2014 21:45

Kejri will not lose deposit onlee :((

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby VinayB » 15 May 2014 21:47

There is a post poll forecast at http://www.lensonnews.com/ (GVLN) that looks similar to 543.

If NDA crossing 300 involves scoring 15 seats in Tamil Nadu, I will consider pre-poll NDA crossing 300 an unlikely outcome. Even counting all seats with an outside chance in TN (south Madras, Vellore, Coimbatore, Kanyakumari, Salem, Dharmapuri, Erode, Virudhunagar), it does not cross 8 seats. To believe in 15, one might need to smoke some very potent stuff.

No point in treating such projections credibly and then blaming it on EVM fraud after results. GVLN's work on the feasibility of EVM fraud is a very credible one and he (and his colleagues) went through a lot of personal hardship for that. So it would be good even for him to keep up that credibility and do not put out such numbers.

Exit polls not trending to the final results by itself is not an indication of EVM fraud (demonstrating the feasibility of that through studies like GVLN's are just enough).

In 2004 exit poll results, trends in TN, AP, and the decline of BJP in UP that started even in 1999, were all missed. The complete route of ADMK was very obvious. AP was a caste issue of other OBC vs Khamma (who were thought to have got max benefits under TDP) - a friend from AP explained this and cautioned about all polls about CB Naidu's 'developer image' even before the elections. Looking back, it is a wonder how exit polls missed these very visible trends.

In 2009, a close contest was not on the cards at all with an Advani leading BJP after Pak/Jinnah secular fiasco, infighting/internal sabotage in rajasthan, Rajnath Singh screwing UP further by becoming friendly with SP (possibly for safety in his own seat). In fact it is a surprise that BJP crossed 100 and held on to most of its strongholds (except rajasthan).

In 2014, I trust in Modi and Amit Shah (having been fooled earlier in 2004 and 2009). But some trends are not encouraging already. There was a deccan chronicle article about 90% polling in Muslim areas in western UP (area including Muzzafarnagar) and 45-55% only polling in Hindu areas. I checked the overall turnout in western UP in the first phase of polling, and that is 65%. Assuming 25% muslim population, 90% of 25% and 55% of 75% adds upto total 65%. Assuming Muslim consolidation behind one candidate (the one likely to be runner up to BJP otherwise), this is cutting it too close - assuming 10 lakh total voters, it is 2.25Lakh muslim votes and 4.125 Hindu votes. If Muslims voted one party, this will need BJP hitting 77% of Hindu votes. Keep in mind that the average muslim population in UP is 25%, and turn out started going down after the first western UP round - final phases was about 55% only.

At close, Amit Shah (while still holding onto 50 seats tally for BJP) was talking of BSP doing better and coming second to BJP.

Why does UP show such low polling %? Is that because poor migrant labour mostly being away from their places and thus never able to vote? One anecdote - a low level painting contractor in Bangalore had all Gorakhpur boys in his employ - they probably never get to vote in their life.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby fanne » 15 May 2014 21:54

VinayB, 543 has good synopsis of voting in western UP, about Muslim % and which party got what (constituency wise some and then overall). If he is right and survey was representative enough, no need to dhoti shiver.
Last edited by fanne on 15 May 2014 21:54, edited 1 time in total.

Anantha
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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 21:54

To those dhoti shivering
please read aditya hridayam mantra in wiki
Aditya hridayam was told to Rama by Agastya during the war with Raavan, as at one point Rama was losing strength and was getting distracted.
Also chant "OM namo Bhagawate vasudevaya"

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 21:56

:lol:

it wont work

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 22:06

MilindC's work
Big Data shows interesting trivia about India

Every 11th voter in UP has Ram in his/her name

Hyderabad, May 15: What’s in a name? You’d better not ask this question to a Ram or a Mohammed in Uttar Pradesh or a Gita Ben in Gujarat or a Lakshmi in Andhra Pradesh. Of the 13.4 crore voters in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s biggest State by number of voters, at least 1.2 crore people have Ram somewhere in their name.

In Andhra Pradesh, the name Srinivas is spelt 600 different ways. About three lakh women in Gujarat have Gita Ben as their first name, while Bihar is home for 3.27 lakh women with Sita as their first name and an almost equal number of women named Geeta. Ramesh seems to be the most common first name across the country.

When one billion people go for voting, you can certainly hope for interesting trivia. A Hyderabad-based start-up has used a variety of Big Data tools to mine the electorate as they worked for a national political party in the ongoing general elections.

Modak Analytics, a three-year-old start-up, has collected and sifted through a whopping 18 tera bytes of data, which includes 10 TB (one TB is 1,000 gigabytes or GB) in .pdf format.

The other names that are quite popular are: Lakshmi (19.28 lakh, Andhra Pradesh), Fernandes (81,000, Goa), Shankar (11.41 lakh) and Patil (24 lakh, Maharashtra).


“We have vetted about data related to 81 crore people to help our client understand the electorate on a wide variety of aspects such as caste, gender, age and economic status. We used all the publicly available data provided by Election Commission and Census figures,” Milind Chitgupakar, Chief Analytics Officer of Modak, said.

Addressing reporters on Wednesday, Modak Analytics’ Co-Founder Aarti Joshi said the company would now look at banking and retail industries to provide Big Data analytics solutions. The 10-employee strong self-funded firm hopes to register a turnover of Rs 1 crore this year.

Two longest names for voters are registered in Andhra Pradesh – E Janake Sathya Surya Vijaya Durga Maheshvari in Sangareddy constituency and Venkata Sathya Suriya Maitreyi Kumari Toleti in Narsapur constituency. :lol:

There is comedy of errors too. In Chhattisgarh, the age of a voter is marked as 19,545 years, while 64 voters in AP has ‘0’ years of age. :lol:

(This article was published on May 15, 2014)

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 22:10

krishnan wrote::lol:

it wont work


It worked for Shri Ram, It will work for all of us

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 22:12

Since Congress has been abandoned by its leaders, it can adopt Sushma Swaraj as leader of opposition. All problems solved. #Verdict2014

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 22:13

i was talking about codes , Singha ji tried that

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 22:14

krishnan wrote:Image



Those are white surrender tents in the Crusader style!!!

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 22:17

not sure what they are planning, maybe just to help them in hot summer

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Singha » 15 May 2014 22:20

yes i was trying to embed a timer into a post. did not work

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 22:21

codes dont work

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 22:21

:twisted: zcongi leaders requested tents overnight for ND Tiwari, Diggy types :D

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby VinayB » 15 May 2014 22:29

fanne wrote:VinayB, 543 has good synopsis of voting in western UP, about Muslim % and which party got what (constituency wise some and then overall). If he is right and survey was representative enough, no need to dhoti shiver.


In 2009, I had watched GVLN bravely argue with Sanjay Kumar of CSDS about UP, in one of the TV channels, on the night before counting. Sanjay could not communicate as strongly as GVLN, but the next day was different. I watched the show, and I was obviously on GVLN's side, and I posted that exchange in a comment in some blog. I was a lurker at BRF then, and one BRFite had posted my comment from that blog in some thread.

That blogger was anonymous then, and big part of niticentral now.

and yes, no point dhoti shiver. just enough to be realistic and recognize what matters (for instance Modi win is not the end).

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Victor » 15 May 2014 22:45

krishnan wrote:Image

Have to admit I don't like the look of those tents.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby krishnan » 15 May 2014 22:46

everyone is confused even press people as to why the tents are there

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Mort Walker » 15 May 2014 22:46

The tents are there because they know of voter fraud and disenfranchisement has helped them to get an additional 30+ seats, and if the counting is close, they may have a chance after all. It could be a 1996 type situation.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby vivek.rao » 15 May 2014 22:48

krishnan wrote:everyone is confused even press people as to why the tents are there


All senior leaders of CON party including Digvijay Singh, ND Tiwari, Singhvi saab are spending time there. They need privacy :rotfl:

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Sanku » 15 May 2014 22:54

Victor wrote:Have to admit I don't like the look of those tents.


Pretty ominous.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Chandragupta » 15 May 2014 22:55

Another round of dhoti shiver? What are they planning?

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 23:07

As per my sources, all leaks related to Govt formation is coming from SS and LKA. What this man Modi has undergone all this years is unbelievable. Only Rajnath Singh has been on his side like a rock.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 23:08

They are still trying to prop up Mamta. except Jaya and Mamta can not be PM together. will not work

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Prem » 15 May 2014 23:08

Sanku wrote:
Victor wrote:Have to admit I don't like the look of those tents.

Pretty ominous.


Give Islamist impression in design and layout.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 23:12

Chandragupta wrote:Another round of dhoti shiver? What are they planning?


Dont worry guys. I have talked to some senior "fundamentalists". No further EVM manipulation possible. The frauds committed were Voter roll fraud and booth capturing in WB and MH.
Also body languagea and statements by Congis are a give away. Rahul wants no part of any congi govt. So it is a non starter
Last edited by Anantha on 15 May 2014 23:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby harbans » 15 May 2014 23:13

Those tents just expecting a Sultan with full garb, belt, turban, sword strapped with Gulab rose to emerge...very mughal indeed.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Ashok Sarraff » 15 May 2014 23:16

Shivaji killed the mighty Afzal Khan in one such tent after luring him away from his forces and pretending that he wants to surrender to him.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby vivek.rao » 15 May 2014 23:16

Anantha wrote:As per my sources, all leaks related to Govt formation is coming from SS and LKA. What this man Modi has undergone all this years is unbelievable. Only Rajnath Singh has been on his side like a rock.


1. Can you imagine these people if BJP needs some more allies?
2. once in Govt. they will try everything to sabotage Modi every day with leaks. How do you counter internal enemies?

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby nachiket » 15 May 2014 23:16

I had stopped dhoti shivering after all the exit polls predicted an NDA victory. I've started again after seeing those tents. What do those rascals know that even the presstitutes don't?

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Anantha » 15 May 2014 23:19

Nachiketji
nothing, they are on to their last scam getting Maya and Jaya together if NDA gets less than 240 . not possible

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby harbans » 15 May 2014 23:19

Sardesai asked Sampath if EVMs can be rigged, Sampath gave a constipated guilty look and didn't answer the question. Dilbu ji where are you..

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby nachiket » 15 May 2014 23:24

Anantha wrote:Nachiketji
nothing, they are on to their last scam getting Maya and Jaya together if NDA gets less than 240 . not possible

Yes but if they know that what's with the media tents? You would think the media would be the last people SG and co. will want to talk to if the exit polls turn out right.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Chandragupta » 15 May 2014 23:25

harbans wrote:Sardesai asked Sampath if EVMs can be rigged, Sampath gave a constipated guilty look and didn't answer the question. Dilbu ji where are you..


Boss, read we will have to read hanuman chalisa all night long to accompany massive dhoti shiver.

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby nachiket » 15 May 2014 23:25

harbans wrote:Sardesai asked Sampath if EVMs can be rigged, Sampath gave a constipated guilty look and didn't answer the question. Dilbu ji where are you..

Even Dilbu has to sleep. We must carry on. NaMo will lose onlee.. :(( :((

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby Sanku » 15 May 2014 23:25

harbans wrote:Sardesai asked Sampath if EVMs can be rigged, Sampath gave a constipated guilty look and didn't answer the question. Dilbu ji where are you..



:(( :(( :((

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Re: General Elections 2014 : RESULTS thread

Postby ramana » 15 May 2014 23:27

Maybe false bravado to make Mamata types to jump to their side?

Those tents look right out Singha's story !!!!

The Prince and the Khans might emerge any moment form them.


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