North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea explodes a Nuke

Post by ramana »

ramana wrote:Its the Pakis outsourcing their testing again. Recall the bit about Pakis increasing their bums. Well here its being tested via Noko.
On six pages later, this could be a two-step process to acquire TN capability by TSP and Noko under PRC tutoring. Let me explain myself. The first test of ~ 5 kt was the trigger. This May 25th 2009 test is the pry. Some sources say it was ~20 kt. Others play it down. If the former are right then it could be the outsourced capability that we feared. Too bad the old thread is lost. I had wondered then if this test was a distributed development of the TN by the TSP-Noko with PRC guidance.

So why are others downplaying? For obvious reasons for India might be forced to breakout if this is true.

Its in Indian interests to forestall this omnious development and signal the PRC and US.

No more tests by any rogues or good guys via rogues.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Gerard »

So why are others downplaying? For obvious reasons for India might be forced to breakout if this is true.
One NPA is actually peddling the idea that NoKo detonated a pile of conventional explosives.
Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21234
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Prem »

Where are Nippons in this game ? If they are still giving $ to TSP then most probably NOKO is doing Chinese Chores.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

North Korea Kidnapping Affair

Post by Sanjay M »

This thread should be re-named back to North Korea Watch, or something like that.

Meanwhile, Kissinger has weighed in on Obama & Co's latest capitulation to NKorea, a la Rubaiya Sayeed:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2009 ... rth-korea/

It will only embolden Pyongyang into more stunts.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

SanjayM, Look at it from Indian interests point of view. Whats happening in Noko?

- Early reports circa 1998 said NoKo folks were there at May 30 Chagai test.
- Some Noko official disappeared in TSP around that timeframe.
- NoKo does its first test. Called small yield etc by US. However it was still a test.
- Noko does second test. This time again US says small yield. But others say its 15-20kt.
- Noko still has relationship with TSP.
- Noko ship caught snooping in Indian waters of Car Nicobar.

PRC is protector of both TSP and NoKo.

What if all these are related? What black swan event could explain all these?
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by svinayak »

Prem wrote:Where are Nippons in this game ? If they are still giving $ to TSP then most probably NOKO is doing Chinese Chores.
Nippons will be given US tested fully functional weapons design so that no adversary will come near it.
The idea is to make sure that all allies of US are covered.
Rogue countries will take care of them selves with PRC help
India will be the odd man out with untested design and no deployed weapons facing threats.
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Arun_S »

ramana wrote:SanjayM, Look at it from Indian interests point of view. Whats happening in Noko?

_ Early reports circa 1998 said noo folks were there at May 30 Chagai test.
- Some Noko official disappeared in TSp around that timeframe.
- NoKo does its first test. Called small yield etc by US. However it was still a test.
- Noko does second test. This time aain US says small yield. But others say its 15-20kt.
- Noko still has relationship with TSP.
- Noko ship snooping in Indian waters of Car Nicobar.

PRC is protector of both TSP and NoKo.

What if all these are related? What black swan event could explain all these?
Pakistan first tested its nuclear weapon in Lop Nor, where Chinese allowed them to use their range to test Pakistan assembled (Enriched Uranium) nuclear weapon, based on Chinese design. This is now public information reported by many open source publications.

The first North-Korean test was unboosted fission primary based on Plutonium outsourced by Pakistani as part of JV with No-Korea.

The second North-Korean test was also outsourced by Pakistanis, it was Boosted primary (of what will be the Pakistani Thermonuclear bomb based on Chinese bomb){ See the Thieves (Pakistan and No Korea) also have to policy of trust (China) BUT verify} of 15-20 Kt yield. That is the yield a new newbie with lesser technological know-how will use to ensure second stage burn using a Chinese TN design of 80's vintage.

So India is back on the same box of pre-1998 era, when Indian neighbors (China and Pakistan) have nuclear weapons (warhead mated with missiles) "Leady too go" (Sic. Uncle Jiang Chinese Fast Food) thanks to active collaboration of China and USA, while India is beholden to Panch-Sheel and a credible PNE device (sic) to protect its hide.

India is Buddhi-chutyh (Sanskrit word meaning "Bereft of Intellect") nation whose is tied and bound by self-contradictions of babudom and GoI lead by "the fearless leader" MM Singh.

India must now declare publicly its REDLINE that any nuclear test by ANY nation on earth will result in India resuming testing of nuclear weapons.


Time for fiddling is over, US and Chinese have to control and shut seal their MUNNAs.
John Snow
BRFite
Posts: 1941
Joined: 03 Feb 2006 00:44

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by John Snow »

Also we dont have another three decades of frantic progress by DRDO to deliver, end user usable Agni in all flavors including ICBM.

At our pace, peace is onlly possible if we prostrate to every Tom ( the gropper), Dick (the Flinger) harry (the Han)
Arun_S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2800
Joined: 14 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: KhyberDurra

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Arun_S »

The problem with nuclear test is that Indian soverignity to test is now bethroed by bilateral and multilateral agreements.

Missile can me made and its range be declared as and when needed, and Indian sovereignty is not (YET) bethroed; yes delaying and starving it will be as good as not having it.

Castration can be by rusty sword or surgeon knife. MMS chooses surgeon knife. But end result is castrated onleeee.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Sanjay M »

India Intercepts North Korean Ship On Nuclear Suspicions:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/11/world ... ss&emc=rss

Looks like China is attempting to play the same game again, using its stooges to do its proliferation dirty work.

Will India continue to just passively take things lying down, so that NoKo eventually succcessfully slips stuff past the safety nets?

India has never done anything to harm NoKo, but clearly the latter is in a desperate position, whereby it will do anything.
India has also tried to cater to Myanmar junta's sensitivities, but them going nuclear is a red flag.

China is escalating the game and upping the ante, by pursuing nuclearization of Myanmar and Bangla, whether directly or through stooges.

India needs to come up with a response.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Almost a year later comes this intriguing report from Night Watch who is NoKo watcher!
North Korea: The Korean Central News Agency announced on 12 May that North Korean scientists have achieved a breakthrough by creating nuclear fusion. North Korean media described it as giving great encouragement to the Armed Forces and the people.

No independent source has confirmed the North's claim, whose secondary purpose is to rivet international attention towards North Korea. A fusion -- thermo-nuclear-- weapon would be much more powerful than a fission weapon.

Feedback on the significance of this "breakthrough" is invited.
I think the news is to signal assembly of the configuration which we have been discussing for over a year now.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Gerard »

Abnormal radiation detected near Korean border
On May 15, however, the atmospheric concentration of xenon .. on the South Korean side of the inter-Korean border was found to be eight times higher than normal, according to South Korea's Science Ministry.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Sanjay M »

ramana wrote:I think the news is to signal assembly of the configuration which we have been discussing for over a year now.
Which config is that? Can you give me the exec summary?

Xenon is a product of fission reactions - but there was no seismic activity detected.

What could have yielded this?
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4487
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by vera_k »

It is the NoKo-Paki thermonuke courtesy China.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Google Cache of Stories on Xenon detection

Its a test. The question is what other signatures confirm it?

SoKo nor US want another headache of confirming the NoKo test. So the news is dismissed. Lets see what else turns up. The think tank guys claim its a Japanese reactor being re-fuelled!
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Sanjay M »

There's no way it's a successful test explosion - though if it were a failed test, perhaps that would release the fission by-products.

If there had been a seismic detection, then it would have been reported. Nobody's going to let NoKo have a freebie, especially not when they're as crazy as they are.

But it's possible that a failed test could escape seismic monitors.

So are you fall saying that NoKo has just conducted a test of a fission-boosted H-bomb, albeit perhaps a failed test? And this design might then also be in Pak hands?
Well, if it's a failed test, I don't think Pak is necessarily going to feel very comforted.

Plus, I think that if a Chinese H-bomb design were to end up in Pak hands, then suddenly it will end up in the hands of Iran, Libya, etc.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

ramana wrote: Its a test. The question is what other signatures confirm it?

SoKo nor US want another headache of confirming the NoKo test. So the news is dismissed. ...
Here is one (typical) story from above - nothing confirmed.. it also says
A Vienna-based United Nations agency, however, said no signs of increased radioactivity were detected last month along the Korean border.
"We have not registered anything that would raise any suspicion," said Kirsten Haupt, a spokeswoman for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, a U.N. agency that looks for signs of nuclear testing worldwide.
Xenon in nuclear fission by-products mostly (90+%) comes from Iodine-135 decay.. although it (I-135) has short half life ...in anycase testing would be easy to do, and the results would be difficult to hide.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Nightwatch, 6 July 2010
North Korea: The official Party newspaper published a signed commentary in which the author analyzed recently declassified US State Department documents concerning the shoot down of the EC 121 intelligence collection aircraft in 1969. The commentator argued that US defense contingency planning to use nuclear weapons against North Korea to retaliate for that incident, as described in detail in the declassified documents, justifies North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons.


Comment: signed commentaries are low level treatments of an issue. This was picked up and repeated in part by the Korean Central News Agency, which indicates the party reviewers think it has merit. The logic is a bit strained in that North Korean had no nuclear weapons program in 1969. The author contends that the behavior of the US then is typical so as to justify the present nuclear weapons program.


Of passing interest, the commentary contains a detailed summary of US military plans, as follows.


"To date the US imperialists have worked out a number of plans of operations to provoke a new war in Korea and have run amok to translate them into reality. It has already been known that they [the US imperialists] mapped out a top secret plan of operations called "8-53" designed to provoke a new Korean war, in November 1953, shortly after they suffered a defeat in the Korean War. "Pink Route Operations Plan" for a northward aggression was mapped out in the 1960s. According to this, such things as an armed spy ship "Pueblo" sneaked into the territorial waters of our country. It is also revealed that similar operations plans were worked out in the 1970s and 1980s as well. In the 1990s, the US imperialists worked out "Operations Plan 5027" to "bring down" our Republic and have kept revising it. It includes "New Operations Plan 5026" that envisioned a preemptive strike on our nuclear facilities, the "Operations Plan 5030," which is said to have aimed at "guiding somebody to unrest and collapse," "Operations Plan 5029-05," and "Operations Plan 8022-02."


The commentary argues that the sinking of the patrol ship Cheonan lies within the context of US nuclear attack planning. Thus "the serious situation prevailing on the Korean peninsula stresses the need for us to further bolster our nuclear deterrent in a new developed method. Let us make it clear: Our Republic has the legitimate right to further reinforce our nuclear deterrent as needed in a new developed method to defend the country's supreme interests. We will exercise this right openly and squarely. (Emphasis added.)


It is not clear what the new developed method is, but it has dominated nuclear weapons articles since the North claimed to have achieved a fusion breakthrough in early May. The North at least believes it has some significant nuclear weapons innovation.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Upon thinking about it I think this instance is a failed boosted fission device of NoKo +TSP. Since it failed there is no hungama from US.

What is clear is the PRC drive to ensure parity for TSP willy nilly.

They messed up big time in 1998 when they gave only fission weapons to TSP to test.
Some proven capability has to be shown by TSP in order to pass off the real stuff they will get from PRC.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

Slightly OT ... But strange and very unusual thing about North Korea, that it was disqualified in this year's math Olympiad :eek: ( cheating ).. what is even stranger that I heard that this happened once before too with NK.
Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17167
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Rahul M »

how does one cheat in the olympiad ?!
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

^^^"Official" report just says "Disqualified"..(have not seen it any news reports etc - nor it is likely that details will appear).. what I was told that the team leader (those who help proctor) passed some sort of cards during exam.

Funny thing was, they were disqualified before, which earned them a 15 year ban. They came back only in 2007.. btw they have done very well (were ranked 5th in 2009) in the past.

Funny place this NK ..BTW , many know here, but a few years back when one of their nuclear reactors was visited by western press they found broken sky-light above and frogs inside the cooling water pool of the reactor.. :shock:
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

AmberG< I need you Physics mind. Was the xenon detected a possible failed Noko test release? If so why we have no seismic signature?
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ of course, I don't have data but I don't think one can draw any conclusion from the story about detection of Xe (how much was detected etc)...as said before Xe, comes mainly from I-135 byproduct of fission (both from U or Pu)....so one will see other signatures which will be difficult to hide. Can't think that boosted fission (or partial fusion) will impact/increase Xe production. JMO.
(Main difficulty is not physics but knowing exactly what the data is)
Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11240
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Gagan »

What if the North Koreans tried out an Atmospheric test and it failed? Or that it was a low yield kind?

How much seismic signature will that generate?

The No Kos' are crazy enough to carry out an atmospheric test.

Zardari is still in china? Is it possible that he's gone beyond to NoKo? Zardari has said that he'll visit China several times a year.

It is possible that under the protection of the war on terror, Pakistani - North Korean nuclear trade ably assisted by china is in full swing, and newer and bigger wmds are being designed by the trio.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

Gagan wrote:What if the North Koreans tried out an Atmospheric test and it failed? Or that it was a low yield kind?

How much seismic signature will that generate?

The No Kos' are crazy enough to carry out an atmospheric test....
.
That's why we have bhangmeters. (No I am not making it up.. the detectors on the networks of satellites (Vela type) to detect atmospheric tests are called bhangmeters.. joke was the the person who coined the term thought that one has to be on bhang (Hindi word for Cannabis) to try out atmospheric tests). Bhangmeters will detect X-rays, but more reliable, tell-tale optical (double) intense pulses... and the whole earth is constantly monitored by satellite network which carries these.

There is not much chance of sneaking that in.

Apart from them, sound waves, seismic (atmospheric, hydro-acoustic) shock waves are being monitored all the time.. heck i would guess even a small radio telescopes would be able to detect upper ionosphere disturbance from far away.. not to mention radiation and radioactive traces (eg I-135) would be impossible to hide as they would be carried far away...

100% failed test is one thing (which by definition would not be detected).. but a partial nuclear test in atmosphere will be all but impossible to hide.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ for above from wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_(satellite)
In the 1970s, the nuclear detection mission was taken over by the Defense Support Program (DSP) system, and in the late 1980s, augmented by the Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. The program is now called the Integrated Operational Nuclear Detection System (IONDS).
...
The Advanced Vela satellites were additionally equipped with two non-imaging silicon photodiode sensors called bhangmeters which monitored light levels over sub-millisecond intervals. They could determine the location of a nuclear explosion to within about 3,000 miles. Atmospheric nuclear explosions produce a unique signature, often called a "double-humped curve": a short and intense flash lasting around 1 millisecond, followed by a second much more prolonged and less intense emission of light taking a fraction of a second to several seconds to build up. The effect occurs because the surface of the early fireball is quickly overtaken by the expanding atmospheric shock wave composed of ionised gas. Although it emits a considerable amount of light itself it is opaque and prevents the far brighter fireball from shining through. As the shock wave expands, it cools down becoming more transparent allowing the much hotter and brighter fireball to become visible again. No natural phenomenon is known to produce this signature.

They were also equipped with sensors which could detect the electromagnetic pulse from an atmospheric explosion.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

AmberG, However will a failed or partial nuke test release the xenon signature? please suspend other evidences for a second and let us know.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11237
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Amber G. »

Ramana - Yes. (How much.. will obviously depend on the design/yield/leakage-venting from ground etc)..I would guess one of the reason one would look at Xe is it remains for a long time.. ( for example I-135 half life is rather short .. so the measurement is more time sensitive)

FWIW:

Few things to note: (and here may be others could do more research/goggle for other events)

- Fusion (or boosted fission device) is not relevant. (You need fission to produce Xe)

Other Items which could produce elevated (News reports say 8x times normal) Xe:

- Release/dumping of (medical) radio isotopes (Are Hospitals around the area disposes isotopes? - accidental dumping etc)?
- Reprocessing facilities... (Did they really closed all the operations or lying about it .. Believe they had some which they promised to close down a few years ago)
- Starting up (or doing some thing which will vent) of a nuclear (fast breeder type) reactor

Do you have a good link/source which gives more details on numeric data.. (Eg when, how much of Xe etc) which could be taken as reliable?... and also what kind of hospitals/reactors/reprocessing facilities are close by .. are there any report of startup/accidents etc at those?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

not really. There is blanket no news on this topic. However we can see US bolstering their forces around NoKo.
Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11240
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Gagan »

An underground test is difficult to hide because seismic monitors are dime a dozen, and it will be difficult to supress the news.

Where as I am sure that Bhangmeters are not omnipresent. It is easier to control the spread of information from this source.

There could be other explanations for the Xe. Is it possible that a nuke reactor vented? Or could this have been released from a N storage site or some sort of experiment?

Although a device low yield enough to not cause much seismic disturbance which vented, or an atmospheric test are options that one must consider.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Is there any benefit for Noko to test underground any more? If they were trying to proof their fusion experiment they would do so above gorund to provide real undeniable evidence.
My conclusion so far is it was a fizzled boosted device. Uncle wont confrim for that show their impotence. However they would bolster forces around the area to ensure no breakout.
Sanjay M
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4892
Joined: 02 Nov 2005 14:57

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Sanjay M »

Would China have to give approval for NKorea to conduct another N-test, whether thermonuclear or just fission? Would China be behind this test, in order to reassure Pak of nuclear parity thru an H-bomb test? Or could NKorea be taking their own initiative as part of their escalating brinksmanship, just like their sudden ambush of the SKorean naval vessel?
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Many important opinion makers in Dilli agree that this Noko tests are a joint TSP-NoKo efforts under PRC mid-wifery to get more efficient weapons.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60287
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by ramana »

Good thing the thread is still there!
From Nightwatch, 21 Oct., 2010
North Korea also might be preparing for another nuclear test or a nuclear-related test in North Hamgyong Province. Reports of increased activity detected by US imagining :mrgreen: satellites and South Korean reports of "brisk movement" of people and vehicles at Punggye Ri - the site of the North's 2006 nuclear tests -- are the bases for the latest spike in concern about potential nuclear activity.

Activity to repair a tunnel that collapsed after two earlier nuclear tests will take approximately three months, unidentified US sources said.

Comment: The two news reports above present the typical carrot and stick approach to policy-related information about North Korea. Both may be accepted as accurate on their face.

The North's time-honored practice, since the time of Kim Il-sung, is to make a gesture of conciliation backed by activity indicating the North remains powerful and dangerous. The obvious message is that conciliation does not signify weakness or vulnerability that can be exploited.

The poverty of science in North Korea almost certainly requires more nuclear testing for a usable warhead and especially for progress towards miniaturization. The 2006 tests were not fully successful, by most accounts.

The poverty of leadership probably requires some sensational grand gesture that Kim Chong-un can claim as validating his leadership, however severe the backlash. The kid needs something he can claim is his idea.

The absolute economic poverty of the North should inform the Pyongyang leadership that they cannot bear the backlash of more sanctions and increased hostility from the West or the welcoming embrace of the hated and dreaded Chinese.

NightWatch predictions: Will there be real nuclear test? No, certainly not before 2011. Will there be some other sensational action, nuclear-related, ballistic missile, or provocative? Yes, between now and 2011.

Japan's reaction: The Japanese government has obtained no information suggesting North Korea is preparing for another nuclear test, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said on 21 October. The government is aware of the report published by South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo but presently has no facts to substantiate the report's allegations, Sengoku said. Likewise, the South Korean government has received no indications North Korea is preparing for a nuclear test, an unnamed South Korean Foreign Ministry official said, Kyodo reported.
What the NW neglects is there is an imperative for PRC to create new problems for US as they face increasing pressure on the yuan. And poverty of both science and leadership is irrelevant when there is excess of will and wealth to create trouble by PRC. Thinking in silos leads to mis-conclusions.

India too suffered from this silo thinking when they assessed the TSP couldn't produce a razor blade yet claims locally designed and made bombs.

NoKo proofing of nukes is a red flag for India for TSP's missiles are suppleid by NoKo.
wig
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2282
Joined: 09 Feb 2009 16:58

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by wig »

North Korea is building a new nuclear reactor, experts say, raising fears that the facility could be used to enhance the country's nuclear weapons program.
New satellite imagery obtained by the Institute for Science and International Security and information gleaned by U.S. experts on a recent visit to North Korea indicate that the government of Kim Jong-il is building a light-water nuclear reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear facility.

The facility had been at the center of the country's plutonium program before Pyongyang abandoned it in 1994. Now experts are concerned the program has been resumed.

Although light-water reactors are generally used to produce electricity, the North Korean facility could be employed to make nuclear-weapons-grade plutonium, especially if the government is undertaking a parallel program to enrich uranium, according to David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security.

ISIS reported in October that North Korea "has moved beyond laboratory-scale work" and is capable of building a "pilot plant" of centrifuges to enrich uranium.

The Obama administration has declined to conduct negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program. In May 2009, less than six months after President Obama took office, North Korea conducted its second test of a nuclear device, hardening Washington's resolve not to speak with the North. In March of this year, North Korea's military is widely believed to have torpedoed a South Korean warship, killing 46 sailors, further setting back the possibility of talks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... id=topnews
wig
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2282
Joined: 09 Feb 2009 16:58

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by wig »

Arms Bid Seen in New N. Korea Plant
The description emerging of the new facility at Yongbyon, the North’s main nuclear plant, raised a number of critical questions that American and Asian intelligence agencies were struggling to answer.

First is whether a foreign government aided the North in the rapid installation of what appeared to be 2,000 centrifuges, the machines that spin at high speeds to enrich uranium. Second is whether the North’s real purpose is to build a new, far more powerful class of nuclear weapons, perhaps to bolster the credentials of the heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, the son and grandson of the only two leaders North Korea has ever known.

Asked in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, where he was on an official visit, whether he believed the North’s story that it was producing only low-enriched uranium that could not be used in nuclear weapons, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters, “I don’t credit that at all.” He argued that the new facility, once it was operating, could enable North Korea to build “a number” of nuclear devices beyond the 8 to 12 they are now presumed to have
It is also possible that the North got help from a country like Iran. The centrifuges appear similar in design to those used at Natanz, the Iranian nuclear fuel production site, but North Korea described them as higher-efficiency machines.

The new plant’s modernistic technology, rich collection of centrifuges and up-to-date control room, which Dr. Hecker said were astonishing, did not exist in the spring of 2009, just before international weapons inspectors were evicted from the country. While North Korea has already tested two atomic bombs and produced other nuclear weapons, those were made from the spent fuel harvested from a nuclear reactor, not from enriched uranium.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/22/us/22 ... ant&st=cse
Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21537
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Philip »

NoKo-SoKo artillery duels sparks off crisis and tanks the Indian stock market.X-posted in the Military page.

http://news.in.msn.com/international/ar ... 007&page=2
Altair
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2620
Joined: 30 Dec 2009 12:51
Location: Hovering over Pak Airspace in AWACS

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by Altair »

^^
Are there any military or naval exercises going on in yellow sea between US and SK?
SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36427
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Post by SaiK »

Post Reply