Terroristan - March 31, 2022

[Manish_P]

[chetak]

The Pakistanis have been made to eat crow with a side helping of sausages. Not only did ICC remain firm and not remove Andy Pycroft which was the PCBs “non-negotiable” demand, but he went on to officiate their match. And even though Pakis claimed moral victory by saying Pycroft apologised, he did nothing of that sort: he just expressed regret for miscommunication.
Bhikaris H&D is in tatters….

The Pakistanis have been made to eat crow with a side helping of pork sausages................

There you go Tanaji saar, this reads so much better

[A_Gupta]

Hussain Haqqani notes about the Paki-Saudi treaty: , “Most likely, Pakistan will now be able to buy US weapons it needs, with Saudi money, which [the] Trump administration seems willing to sell. Similar purchases occurred in the 1970s when the US Congress was unwilling to approve loans under Foreign Military Funding (FMF) for Pakistan.”

Saudi Arabia spend as much on defense as India (around $78 billion).

1. How many shiny new toys can the Pak army afford now?
2. Will Pakistan get bases in Saudi Arabia?
3. Will attacks by BLA, TTP on Pakistan be attacks on Saudi Arabia?
4. If we think that the Paki army is a bit stretched now, will it have to grow (with Saudi money) to be a “regional guarantor of security”?
5. Will Pakistan be drawn into war with the Houthis?
6. What is the impact on Iran?

[Dilbu]

Why do the Saudis need to fear Israelis . They are member of Abe Accord and ksa royal family is against Muslim brotherhood and Hamas and Qatar . I don't get it .

I have a different take on this. Saudis had already funded the Paki bum years ago and had an agreement to gain access to it when needed. They never made this arrangement formal or public as long as unkil's military base in their soil provided an easier safety guarantee. Now after attack on Hamas in Doha, unkil's torn langoti is flying in the wind for everyone to see. Also with Israel on their side and Iran subdued, as of now, Saudis might think this is the right time to come out of the closet and make a claim on that atim bum. Wise move? Time will tell.

One thing is certain. Kirana hills will suddenly feature in the potential target list of may more countries from now on. The paki nukular umbrella graduated from being India's headache to West Asia's headache.

[chetak]

Why do the Saudis need to fear Israelis . They are member of Abe Accord and ksa royal family is against Muslim brotherhood and Hamas and Qatar . I don't get it .

I have a different take on this. Saudis had already funded the Paki bum years ago and had an agreement to gain access to it when needed. They never made this arrangement formal or public as long as unkil's military base in their soil provided an easier safety guarantee. Now after attack on Hamas in Doha, unkil's torn langoti is flying in the wind for everyone to see. Also with Israel on their side and Iran subdued, as of now, Saudis might think this is the right time to come out of the closet and make a claim on that atim bum. Wise move? Time will tell.

One thing is certain. Kirana hills will suddenly feature in the potential target list of may more countries from now on. The paki nukular umbrella graduated from being India's headache to West Asia's headache.

Dilbu ji,

“Most likely, pakistan will now be able to buy us weapons it needs, with saudi money"

This goes against the geopolitical and supreme national interests of India in particular, while leaving the cheen bosses extremely unhappy too

we will need viable options to counter threats from this emerging coalition of the jihadis

BTW, Dilbu ji,

Maintain good health, regular exercise, nutritious diet, and stay match fit

by the way things are panning out and what with the global and regional dynamics that are changing almost daily, we will have urgent need your unparalleled hex powers.

[drnayar]

I think this is as much threat Israel can get from a nuclear power , wonder what their response is

[Rudradev]

Hussain Haqqani notes about the Paki-Saudi treaty: , “Most likely, Pakistan will now be able to buy US weapons it needs, with Saudi money, which [the] Trump administration seems willing to sell. Similar purchases occurred in the 1970s when the US Congress was unwilling to approve loans under Foreign Military Funding (FMF) for Pakistan.”

Saudi Arabia spend as much on defense as India (around $78 billion).

1. How many shiny new toys can the Pak army afford now?
2. Will Pakistan get bases in Saudi Arabia?
3. Will attacks by BLA, TTP on Pakistan be attacks on Saudi Arabia?
4. If we think that the Paki army is a bit stretched now, will it have to grow (with Saudi money) to be a “regional guarantor of security”?
5. Will Pakistan be drawn into war with the Houthis?
6. What is the impact on Iran?

The Saudis are angry with India for two reasons. First, India is buying far less oil from them than it was a few years ago. Second, India is buying Russian oil, refining it in huge quantities and selling it to EU and other markets at prices that undercut Saudi oil.

Are they angry enough with India to fund Pakistan's purchase of *India-specific* weapons? I think they realize that would be an action with very far-reaching consequences. Trump will not be around forever, and even for as long as he is around, his loyalties to foreign regimes can and will turn on a dime. Practical minds in Riyadh know there are many advantages to keeping India at least somewhat on-side.

Regarding Pakistan getting bases in Saudi Arabia: Pakistanis are already employed by the hundreds on bases in Saudi Arabia, in every position from toilet cleaner to aircraft chauffeur. Will Pakistan ever have the sort of sovereign authority over these bases as, say, the US has over Al-Udeid? No way.

Regarding attacks by BLA, TTP, etc. it hardly matters what is said on paper. The Saudis are not going to fight TTP or BLA on Pakistan's behalf. What I expect is that Pakistan (as convenient) will be reciprocally reluctant when asked to contribute more to Saudi war efforts in, say, Yemen. "We cannot send more to you saar, what about Yindoo-sponsored BLA/TTP saar, what about Yindoos themselves saar, we need to mind our own borders, please give us money."

Regarding the growth of any Pakistani institution with Saudi money-- previous experiences with US money, European money, Japanese money, Chinese money etc show that Pakistan is an infinite sinkhole for money. The Saudis can pour as much money as they want into it. It will find ways to divert that money for the benefit of its jarnail/politician/landowner class, but never quite have enough to grow into a 'guarantor of regional security' unless more money is sent.

Finally, Pakistan will not be drawn into war against the Houthis (other than providing some amount of cannon fodder to fight under the Saudi flag as they already do). Pakistan (which shares a long border with Iran and has a substantial Shia population) has more to fear from Iran than Saudi Arabia does.

Bottom line: the Pakistan-Saudi "alliance" is of concern to India only if the US decides to become actively involved in cementing and operationalizing it, to the extent that it was in say Zia Ul Haq's day. Meaning boots on the ground, carriers on the coast, squadrons parked in Pakistani airbases, with Saudi funding for all of this. If America sticks around as a long-term micromanager to play arbiter (on who should send money/soldiers/equipment to whom and when), adjudicator (of any potential disputes between Saudi and Pakistan on the terms of the treaty), auditor (of what is happening to the funds allotted for each purpose in each case)... then it can become a real problem. Without the firm and constant guiding hand of Washington-- something that hasn't really existed since the demise of the Soviet Union-- I don't expect this to change things very much.

[chetak]

Rudradev saar,

the qataris were asking for it, and have got their comeuppance for the time being

they are not very popular in the "gelf" because they actually have terrorists with them, especially those seeking safe haven

They fund various "causes" and many of these have come back later to bite them in the ass.

Their notorious al jazira venture had caused very grave offence to the very influential players all over the "gelf"

The saudis are merely looking for a hired gun and general housekeeping dogsbody, so that they can put up the "beware of dog" sign on their gate, and the pakis are looking for a rich master who does look into the financials too deeply

the nuclearized pakis have long yearned for the leadership of the ummah and what they imagine is the "respect" that they will be accorded for "assuming" the title but the saudis do not even recognize them as true muslims

The rabid pakis, very often bite their own masters.

Any weapons that they get, no matter the source, they will use against India

[uddu]

Same day, this as well
https://x.com/MeghUpdates/status/1968676902756925458

@MeghUpdates
BIG BREAKING

US REVOKES 2018 sanctions waiver for India on Iran’s Chabahar Port.

From Sept 29, anyone OPERATING at Chabahar will FACE US Treasury sanctions.

https://x.com/VatsRishap/status/1968564397023883272
@VatsRishap
Important to note that this meeting with the CENTCOM commander came on the same day as the defence pact announcement with Pakistan.

https://x.com/kbsalsaud/status/1968032021860749330
@kbsalsaud
Met with the commander of
@CENTCOM
, Admiral Brad Cooper. During the meeting, we reviewed aspects of our defense cooperation and discussed the latest developments in the region, as well as our shared efforts to address them in a way that preserves international peace and security.

[Rudradev]

The saudis are merely looking for a hired gun and general housekeeping dogsbody, so that they can put up the "beware of dog" sign on their gate, and the pakis are looking for a rich master who does look into the financials too deeply

But that has always been the case since the 1970s at least. A_Gupta ji's post seemed to suggest that the new Saudi/Pak treaty might somehow change or augment the prevailing scenario to India's detriment. My response was to say that I don't think it matters much in the big picture.

Yes, Pakis will get some more money from the MBS regime than they used to. That will allow the Pakis to spend Saudi money on weapons for use against India while eating up money from other sources for themselves. But this role of the Pakistan-benefactor is one that many countries are willing to play... that's why we've always said Pakistan has four fathers. If it were not Saudi Arabia it would be someone else.

Any weapons that they get, no matter the source, they will use against India

This is something that was true even before the Saudi/Pak treaty. The point is what kind of weapons. If the US wants to give Pakis very advanced ADS, AMRAAMs, fighters and so on-- they would do so with or without Saudi in the picture. What has changed under Trump is that Trump wants the Saudis, rather than the US treasury itself, to fund the transfer of these weapons to Pakistan.

[uddu]

https://x.com/Himalaya1971/status/1968419643015708857
@Himalaya1971
This time, a shipment of bullets has been seized at Dhaka’s Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport. According to sources, security personnel recovered a large number of bullets marked “Made in Pakistan,” wrapped inside food packets.

[vera_k]

What has changed under Trump is that Trump wants the Saudis, rather than the US treasury itself, to fund the transfer of these weapons to Pakistan.

Sparks a thought wrt the Trump admin action on India wrt tariffs because of Russian oil purchase.

Moving India away from purchasing Russian oil would be a way to finance support to Pak this way by increasing Saudi oil purchases from India.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile .. When China and Pakistan together moved UNSC 1267 committee to ban and designate BLA and its Majeed Brigade... Breaking news

Baloch Liberation Army claims Fidayeen attack on a convoy of Pakistan Army killing 13 Pakistani soldiers in Dasht, Balochistan.

[Amber G.]

Attack on one nation - India - will be responded with an attack on both - Saudi Arabia & Pakistan.

[Rudradev]

...

On the other hand, my above analysis could be completely off base.

Major Gaurav Arya has a different take entirely: The Saudi-Pak treaty is being engineered by China, not the US. China has also played a major role in normalizing relations between KSA and Iran over the last couple of years-- so if this scenario is true, Iran would not be threatened by the treaty, and would receive Chinese guarantees that it is not the target of a Saudi-Pak alliance. The Houthis would likely be quieted down as well, or at least retargeted towards Israel exclusively.



However, if this is the case, Hussein Haqqani is likely wrong that the Pakis could use Saudi money to buy US weapons. China would insist that any Saudi-funded weapons purchases ensuing from a deal brokered by Beijing would be of Chinese weapons, not American. This would work out much better for India, because we know the capacity of Foo Yong fighters and Chow Mein ADS very well by now.