Should we worry about MKN's visit to Nepal a la Prachanda's Olympic games riffraff? Recall that Sujata Koirala earlier made a trip to china and then Prachanda made a "secret" trip to china via HK that was not exactly a state secret. Is this move a "normal" one or is the move meant as a political check-mate? What are the implications? What should we in India need to read between the lines? Who gains--who loses? In short, wtf is happening?
Bottomline, esp if you dont want to risk getting bored of all the verbiage that is going to follow:
1) India acts, the compradors react
2) In terms of economics, the nepalis would like to hedge their bets with the chinis, but the chinis are their own worst enemies
3) There is going to be the usual nonsense of "we wont let the tibetans protest from our territory", so take that for whatever it means
4) There is going to be some snide requests to the PLA to keep their brothers in arms in check, but i doubt if the PLA can promise much on this regard, not beyond a point
5) India is going to be in the background of nepal-china harangues, but accept it, bade bhai will be bade bhai unless he chooses to act like a chhota bhai
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Ok, why the above? The earlier report [posted 2 posts above] says,
Earlier this morning, Nepal along with other 26 delegates, had boarded Air China from the Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu for his maiden China visit as the country's head of the state. PM’s entourage includes his wife Gayatri Nepal, Deputy Prime Minister Sujata Koirala, Minister for Finance Surendra Pandey, and Minister for Energy Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat. Among them, 15 delegates are from the government and others from the business community. The businessmen are heading separately in personal expenses.
The visit is likely to stick to the same agendas submitted earlier to the Chinese side by the deputy prime minister and foreign minister Sujata Koirala during her visit in September. Nepal had then requested US$ 1b (Rs. 78b) soft loan through Exim bank for big infrastructure projects—construction of an international airport in Pokhara, 400 MW hydropower project in Nsyal Gadhi (Jajarkot), and road links to some remote district headquarters and three flyovers in Kathmandu Valley. Construction of a dry port at Tatopani, a special economic zone in Paanchkhal, assistance to set up a clean energy project, extension of Chinese rail to Nepal’s border and duty free access to 497 Nepali products in the Chinese market were also the agendas.
This report comes from late November
The Tibetan delegation and foreign secretary Bhattarai discussed issues related Nepal’s current political state, increasing international concern about Tibet and direct bus service from Kathmandu to Lhasa. Likewise, chairman Dahal and the delegation discussed on border security, Nepal-China cooperation and Nepal-China relation at people’s level. At the meeting, chairman Dahal reiterated his commitment to one China policy.
Another report says that
The Nepali visitor is to be taken to Xian and Shanghai, besides Beijing, said an official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, describing the trip as a goodwill visit. It is taking place after a couple of postponements, mainly because of preoccupations on the Chinese side.
which is diplomatese for things were not so rosy before.
http://www.nepalnews.com/main/index.php ... epal-.html
From the same report,
In the course of substantive talks in Beijing between Premier Nepal and his counterpart, Wen Jiabao, an agreement of economic cooperation is to be signed that will offer sizeable development assistance to Nepal. An ongoing Chinese-aided project in Nepal is the construction of a mountainous road for a second vehicular link with Tibet, from Rasuwaa pass, which will augment border trade. The road is likely to be ready by next October. China helped Nepal open its first road link for Kathmandu in the early 1960s, when the then-king, Mahendra, had to assure Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru that communism would not be allowed to travel by jeep.
The second road link might eventually be useful for Nepal to diversify its external trade, which is currently overwhelmed by imports from India. That China's policy towards Nepal has remained "realistic" over decades is admitted by Nepali diplomats and independent analysts alike. The homework they do before embarking on any new project always remains strikingly thorough, and the job is usually completed before the agreed timetable. And the Chinese, unlike the Indians, do not meddle in Nepal's domestic politics. {well, that is so charitable of the chinis, they would nt meddle unless you ship em all your raw material and natural resources to em for free or for cheap rates in return for buying their small gifts that will break down in five days, so that you can buy more of their crap again}
Under these circumstances, the Chinese leaders are unlikely to take any initiatives for negotiations that would have long-term effects on bilateral relations. If past experience is taken into account, the Chinese are likely to hear Premier Nepal attentively and reiterate their concern about the activities of "Free Tibet" activists in Kathmandu and elsewhere in Nepal. Such activities are presumed to have arisen in recent months, particularly by those who take advantage of the long, porous and unregulated border with India. India regards the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, as its honored guest. While Kathmandu-based Chinese diplomats insist that China does not compete with India in Nepal, ground realities do not corroborate such an assertion. It is altogether a different point that not all of the Chinese perceptions and concomitant measures are direct or visible. Some are latent as well as indirect. Among the efforts openly made include its request to the government of Nepal to set up police checkpoints in its northern border passes, even if some of these points are remote and more or less inaccessible.
China has lately become very sensitive to New Delhi's bid to enhance its security interests in Nepal, so much so that a local newspaper report attracted the attention of the People's Daily inasmuch as it alluded to Nepal's purported endorsement of a proposal to construct an airstrip in the western town of Surkhet for the use of the Indian Air Force. Surkhet is close to the tri-junction of Kaalaapaani, where India, China and Nepal meet. In view of China's longstanding border dispute with India, which led to a brief conflict in 1962, and India's fear that China would attack its rival by 2012, hostilities between them are not mere imagination.
Some of the high-ranking Chinese officials visiting Nepal in recent months have publicly told Kathmandu that China remained prepared to assist Nepal in protecting its sovereignty and independence. This is often interpreted as a veiled warning to India, whose interference in Nepal has been on the rise since the political changes of 2006. The Chinese are also aware of the fact that India has encroached on Nepal's territory at more than 50 border points. "The Indian offensives, both diplomatic and non-diplomatic, are sure to exacerbate tensions and thereby encourage Chinese counter-measures," Devraj Dahal, a professor of political science, told Asia Times Online. {one JNU jholawaala reporting for a chini rag in anglais becomes a trustable news source}
M K Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat, asked a pertinent question in an article published in The Hindu newspaper recently: Why are India's neighbors getting so "manifestly attracted to fostering close ties with China?" {
and MKB has become Yindian exponent of Yindian diplomatese
}
While Nepalis hope that Premier Nepal succeeds in securing firm Chinese commitments to help Nepal as a country, there are apprehensions that he may be tempted to utilize the opportunity to obtain goodwill for his own continuation in the post he has occupied since May.
Ok, nuff bullshit from others, here is my bullshit, so take it for what its worth. There are certain obvious red-lines:
1) china is worried that Nepal will be used as a staging ground for Tibet operations. They are not just paranoidal, but they better be worried. So much of the give and take seems to be a reactionary one from china following India's action(s). Let me be unmistakeably clear to any chini lurker, "we will continue to put our d1cks in your tibetan backside and we are not going to stop because of some stupid PLA report of breaking Yindia into 28 pieces. go eat a cake."
2) Then there is the question of nepal-china bilateralism. Remember that the nepalis are mostly like us sdres, they have their own suspicions of the chinis even if they are a bit worried here and there about our bade bhai "behaviors." For more on a china-nepal bilateral take, read this excellent writeup:
The friendship at the people to people level has been enduring and solid between our two countries but at the level of policy many gaps and weakness are clearly visible; these must be eliminated gradually in order to elevate Nepal-China relations to a broader plane, to deliver tangible benefits to people on the ground, and finally to demonstrate that Panchasheel or the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence are very much relevant in the effective conduct of contemporary diplomacy.
Moreover, the number 9 which is considered auspicious in China has been used to present an extraordinary formulation that conveys the dynamism and flexibility of the Chinese state, namely that it was in 1949 when Socialism saved China; that in 1979, Capitalism which saved China; that in 1989 it was China which saved Socialism; and finally, that in 2009, it is China which is saving Capitalism! The point is that China has been changing rapidly and her foreign policy has also reflected this, yet routinely China is presented in much more static terms with repercussions in the policy sector. Nepal should make every effort therefore to understand the broad spectrum of the Chinese state and situate its policy accordingly so as to the lay the foundations of a bilateral relationship that has the potential to be one of the most pivotal in Asia in the years ahead.
http://www.nepalnews.com/main/index.php ... tions.html
3) Third, comes the issue of economics. This is a painful saga and one needs to consider their national psyche that is dictated by geopolitics of the mid- to late-80s that also saw us ship our soldiers to save MA Gayoom, that saw us ship our soldiers to SL and enforce a sustained blockade till Jayewardene acquiesced, Brass-tacks, Ops. Meghdoot, Trident, Sumdorung Chu etc.
Up until 1989, treaty agreements between India and Nepal allowed for unrestricted commerce across 21 customs posts along the border, and duty-free transit of Nepalese goods intended for third-party countries through India. In 1989, a breakdown in the treaty renewal negotiations resulted in retaliatory actions on both sides. India's share of Nepali exports plummeted from 38% in 1986/87 to 9% in 1989/90. India's share of the country's imports declined by about 25% to 50%. Despite the severe shock sustained by the Nepali economy, the signing of a new interim agreement in 1990 prevented a prolonged crisis, helping to fuel a robust recovery in export growth as exports increased by 28% in 1990/91 over 1989/90, and again by 35% in 1991/92.
The major export destinations in 2000/01 were India (48%), the United States (26%), and Germany (11%). Over the past decade, exports to India, while continuing to account for about half of Nepal's exports, have soared in value and become increasingly diversified as Nepal's manufactures have carved out niches in the Indian market.
The major import sources in 2000/01 were India (39%), Singapore (10%), and China/Hong Kong (9%). Leading imports were gold, machinery and equipment, petroleum products, and fertilizer.
http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Asia ... TRADE.html
Trade with India rose rapidly after conclusion of the 1996 bilateral trade treaty between the two countries, and now accounts for 43% of all exports. Indian efforts to revise the treaty, which comes up for a 5-year review in December 2001, could dampen Nepal's export growth. Even though China is the 2nd largest exporter to Nepal, yet unlike India which is the largest buyerof Nepal's goods,China's imports from Nepal are zero, thus burdening Nepal's monetary stability and monetary balance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Nepal
There are unmistakeable facts, nepal has something to sell to us whereas it has nothing to sell to china. Thus, while the nepali-India give and take is a reasonably sustainable one, the nepali-chini one is one-dimensional. Thus, despite their historic remembrances of 90 and pro-democrazy support, and their constant need to hedge their bets against India, they really have lil choice on the economic axis. After all, we are blood brothers not outta a fancy dream. And India has signed a new agreement that is supposed to be better for the nepali side too.
http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articl ... 170603.cms
India and Nepal on Tuesday inked a new trade treaty that will lower the incidence of taxes on exports to the Himalayan nation and benefit Indian companies such as Dabur, Asian Paints and HLL that have manufacturing presence there. A number of floriculture products, atta, bran, husk, bristles, herbs, stone aggregates, boulders, sand and gravel in addition to the existing ones can also be imported duty-free into India as per the new treaty. The treaty, which was finalised by the two sides, during Nepalese Prime Minister Madhav Kumar’s India visit in August, was signed by Indian commerce & industry minister Anand Sharma and his Nepalese counterpart Rajendra Mahto in Kathmandu.
...
For many products, the excise duty paid in India is much higher than the Customs duty exemption that the products get in Nepal and, therefore, Indian set ups are net losers, the government official explained. When the new dispensation sets in, exports to Nepal will be treated at par with exports that is carried out in convertible currency and, therefore, get all refund benefits. "It will also allow Indian exports to avail benefit of export promotion schemes prevailing in India, making these products more competitive for sale or value addition in Nepal," Mr Sharma said. This change would be made effective from the date to be mutually agreed to and modalities will be developed for smooth transition from the existing to the new system. Speaking to ET, an official from Dabur, who did not wish to be named, said that the move would certainly help Indian establishments in Nepal. "The procedure has been simplified. It will certainly lead to results," he said. The treaty also provides for an increase in the validity period of the agreement from five to seven years, with a provision of automatic extension for further periods of seven years at a time.
The treaty also paves the way for bilateral trade by air through international airports at Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, commerce & industry minister Anand Sharma told reporters here. The time-frame for bringing in the new dispensation and the way to go about it would be discussed at the inter-governmental council meeting on November 9-10 in Kathmandu, the official pointed out. The 2009 trade treaty revises the treaty of 1996 between the two countries. The 1996 treaty pushed up growth of bilateral trade from Rs 28.1 billion in 1995-96 to Rs 204.8 billion in 2008-09. Nepalese exports to India increased from Rs 3.7 billion in 1995-96 to Rs 40.9 billion in 2008-09. Indian exports to Nepal increased from Rs 24.4 billion in 1995-96 to Rs 163.9 billion in 2008-09.
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/08/21/stori ... 250900.htm
The above two were the Yindian take, here is the nepali take on the same agreement...
Nepal and India signed the revised 2009 India-Nepal Treaty of Trade and Agreement of Cooperation to Control Unauthorized Trade today in Kathmandu. The treaty was signed by Rajendra Mahto, Minister of Commerce and Supplies (Nepal) and Anand Sharma, Union Minister of Commerce and Industry of India. After the signing of the treaty, Commerce and Supplies Minister Rajendra Mahato said the revised trade treaty will open up trade opportunities for Nepal and help ameliorate some of the outstanding problems in her trade with India. The treaty will be valid for 7 years, 2 more years than the earlier treaties. It will be extended automatically every seven years, to be revised again.
Among the new treaty’s highlights include-- waiver of tariff barriers and extra customs duty on several products from Nepal, certification of Nepali export goods within the country, trade via the air for the first time, establishing of land customs stations and open air traffic for bilateral trade in border areas bringing the total number of Stations to 26, ending of the existing mechanism of Duty Refund Procedure (DRP), annulling of export of vanaspati (vegetable ghee) via often contentious channeling agency, ending discrimination in respect of tax, including central excise, rebate and other benefits to exports, etc. The Indian side has agreed to allow Nepal access to the Banglabandh port through Indian territory.
http://www.nepalmonitor.com/2009/10/nep ... n_new.html
Also dont forget overland access to nepali goods through Indian territory to BD that has been in the works. This is a UNILATERAL concession without India getting sufficient hold on our NE states in the hope of one-upmanship.
Also. see this nepali ministry report
http://www.ris.org.in/dp54_pap.pdf
4) Fourth, should be the maoists. Are the maoists the chini play-tool or are they useful idiots? For a good long time, much of the maoist coterie was hunkered in Yindia. Baburam Bhattarai is a product of JNU, Prachanda was underground in Yindia. The Yechury bunch brokered an agreement that brought Prachanda out on the ground. The civil agreement was brokered with the knowledge of and on behalf of GoI and babucrazy. So why do the maoists sound like the perennial idiots that they are? Cos we had a different use for the maoists than the maoists thought they had for us. And because being the bade bhai that we are, we could toss around the bunnies named maoists and throw them out like a used condom. Much of the maoist takleef is the used condom effect. The maoists are again reacting to India's actions. They see certain behavior from Yindia that is unmistakeable, and they rise their volume on 1950 agreement, Susta, Kalapani, Mahakali, etc. To be fairly honest, we are using one set of idiots on the ground to beat up the other. And I am not afraid or ashamed to articulate that point in so many words, that is exactly what diplomazy is all about.
We are chankian, but are we too chankian for our comfort zone, are we going to let our actions go too far ahead so that the reactions are going to be commensurately far-reaching, I dont know. I think and want to assume that I know, but we will have to wait and really see. But remember one thing fairly clearly: we are not reacting on nepal, we are ACTING on it and the chini comrades and the maoist compradors are wonderfully reacting to our Sun-Tzu philosophy.
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Elsewhere,
Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Chhatraman Singh Gurung delivered insignia to recently promoted Lt. General of Nepal Army Toran Jung Bagadur Singh on Sunday. Singh received the insignia amid a special function organised at the Army headquarters in Bhadrakali today.
Three Maoist leaders have challenged the government’s decision to promote Toran Jung Bahadur Singh to second in command of the Nepal Army. Maoist leaders Krishna KC, Himal Sharma and Bina Magar filed a writ petition at the Supreme Court on Sunday seeking scraping of the government’s decision to promote Singh. KC, Sharma and Magar were detained in the Bhairabnath Battalion of the Nepal Army during the insurgency period from where, according to OHCHR, 49 detainees disappeared. Singh was head of the battalion at that time. The government on December 24 had promoted Singh to Lieutenant General, Chief of General Staff, despite opposition from UN bodies in Kathmandu and other national and international human rights organisations. He was given the command of acting army chief when Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Chattra Man Singh Gurung embarked on India visit.
Rakesh Sood's current responsibility:
The Indian Ambassador met the Maoist chairman, who has been venting his ire against India lately, before leaving for New-Delhi for a regular briefing today. The meeting lasted for about an hour this morning. In interview with ekantipur during Chief of Army Staff General Chhatraman Singh Gurung’s India visit, Indian Army Chief Deepak Kapoor had objected to bulk integration of Maoists combatants into the Nepal Army. He had said that the Maoists combatants can join the NA as other Nepali citizens if they qualify or meet the required eligibility. Following the statement, the Maoists chairman has been criticizing India.
) Gyanendra was not as respected as Birendra was, and the standard line about Paras being the culprit is seen as the lollipop as it actually is. They were regular visitors to Puttaparthi sai baba, as I am sure other well connected families in Nepal must be (just like their Indian counterparts). 
)