Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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ashish raval
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by ashish raval »

Why the hell India should help Nepal. Let them do it on its own if they have their capability. GoI should sternly let GoN know that they need to ask people if they want an Indian company to work in nepal or not. :evil:
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by ManishH »

harbans wrote:First Indiadoes not carry out assassinations. And i think thats the right thing.
===
Yes :D and certainly not under the slow-speaking, weak prime-minister MMS-led Govt. Only CIA/Mossad/MI6 is capable of such daring. Therefore, we are pacifist SDREs who spend our intelligence budgets preparing for Magsaysay awards.

If there was a "stronger" GoI, they'd have stopped Nepal's Hukka-Pani and browbeaten them until they stopped issuing visas to Pakis or at least started issuing stapled visas.
===

I consider any show of strength against small nations like Nepal/Bhutan/BD/SL to be counter-productive in light of the tussle with PRC. It is very Chinese thing to threaten small neighbours. India should instead selectively take out strategic assets of Pak/PRC which are doing foulplay in these countries.

India should be the mother-country they want to run to when in trouble - like Maldives did or SL of Jayavardhane's time did.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by sum »

If there was a "stronger" GoI, they'd have stopped Nepal's Hukka-Pani and browbeaten them until they stopped issuing visas to Pakis or at least started issuing stapled visas.
IIRC, we seem to have made a deal to give a free run to our intel agencies in Nepal to hunt Pakis stationed there, if THE WEEK article on snatch ops by IB in Nepal was to be believed.

though i still wonder as to why we didn't get Nepal to stop treating Pakis with kid-gloves which is the easier option than having the Pakis come over and then getting our agencies to chase them around Nepal..
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

sum wrote: though i still wonder as to why we didn't get Nepal to stop treating Pakis with kid-gloves which is the easier option
Sorry to shoot off using your statement, but this thread occasionally borders on the incredibly unbelievable in terms of yakkitak without mucho understanding. how realistic is what you want in terms of country to country relations? can the US prevent a cuba-mexico rapproachement and if so, has it? can china prevent a rapproachement between mongolia and taiwan and if so, has it? sometimes we injuns are pretty bad at throwing ourselves low down the totem-pole.

quite a few people wanted in India have been caught in nepal including (just from the top of my head) niranjan hojai, anthony shimray, the three chini spies who are now in jail, criminals who have committed various domestic crimes in India and ran off, the Nagaland minister with wads of cash, etc. here are some basic one word answers because one-word answers are the only things people often seem to get.

Does nepal benefit by keeping the border with India open? Yes.
Does India benefit by keeping the border with nepal open? Yes.
Can the FICN issue be eliminated completely? No.
Can it be managed? Yes.
Can pakistan-nepal relations be prevented? Yes, as much as pakistan can prevent India-Sri Lanka diplomatic relations from flowering.
Can pakis be prevented from landing in nepal? Yes, if you declare a war and impose sanctions on overland flights between the two countries or by imposing/having the power to enforce an ultimatum on nepal.
Short of that, what else can we do? Suck our thumb, if one goes by brfites opinion.
Can there be more cooperation between the nepali police/army/state machinery and their counterparts on the Indian side? Yes.
Will there be 100% love for India from nepalis? No.
Can angst against India in nepal be managed? Yes, perhaps. For that one has to understand the sam, daam, dand, bhed routine.
Are Indians right in being angry with nepalis? As much as Nepalis have a right in being irritated with Indians' short-sightedness whether it is watching a crikkit match or focussing on issues that borders on talking a lot, but doing less.
Should India fund the army in Nepal with non-defensive weapons when the peace process is not even there? Yes, as much as India would like Nepali maoists to fund the Indian LWEs.
Should India broker a peace process between the maoists, the NC, the CPN(ML), the army and the ex-king? Yes, if realistically realizable.
Is it realistic? Does nt look like as of now.
Should India wait for the cloud to settle down instead of shooting from the hip as brfites would have wanted? If that is the only option on the table.
Will the US or the UN get involved more and more in nepal? Yes.
Will china get involved more and more in nepal? Yes.
Should we get our undies in a twist at these developments? Only as much as India would not want to get involved with other countries.
Does nepali-chinese relations benefit nepal or china? Both.
Is the nepal-china-India triangle a zero-sum game? No.
Is the nepal-India relations a zero-sum game? NO.
Do bozos run our policy sphere? Yes, if one goes by the opinion of brfites.

There you go, understanding Nepal in <30 lines.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by sum »

quite a few people wanted in India have been caught in nepal including (just from the top of my head) niranjan hojai, anthony shimray, the three chini spies who are now in jail, criminals who have committed various domestic crimes in India and ran off,
Stan-ji,
Which 3 Chini spies are you mentioning about? Could you please provide a ink since i seemed to have missed that one....
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by dinakar »

sum wrote: Which 3 Chini spies are you mentioning about?
Click
On January 17, Chinese-trio of Liao Xing, Yu Dangli and a woman among them Yang Liu were apprehended by the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) near Rupaidiha check post in Baharaich, nearly 180 km from here.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by VinodTK »

Old habits die hard: Maoists in Nepal spew anti-India venom
Every year, India provides financial aid worth `200 crore to implement development projects in Nepal but the Maoists have constantly rebuffed our efforts. This has to stop. As members of the ruling coalition, the Maoists cannot continue to behave like a band of rebels. Hopefully, Minister for Foreign Affairs SM Krishna’s upcoming three-day visit to Nepal will help mitigate the growing anti-India sentiment.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

New Delhi has also encouraged Madhesi parties to stay out of government and instead be a strong opposition along with the NC.
...
There is suspicion in Kathmandu that India would not like the Constituent Assembly extended — something Madhesi leaders publicly said after a recent visit to India.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a ... 710037.ece
Having read enough of Prashant Jha, this is some serious revisionism on his part. Plus, he gets to chant the mantra of "the Hindu" which is pro-maoist in every sense, that is why he is shooting from the pedestal of "the Hindu." Otherwise, he would nt have been invited for his op-ed. Elsewhere, he writes:
The Maoists represent the most important and complex political movement of our time. To have a simplistic black and white view about them is just foolish. This column has criticised Maoist high-handedness and violence; held it solely responsible when CA polls were postponed in November 2007; cautioned the Maoists while in government not to be adventurous, be it on the China front or the army; blasted Baidya and company for their absurd positions; repeatedly highlighted Dahal’s weakness as a leader in not taking the bold, irreversible steps that would allay suspicions on the other side; and exposed Maoist hypocrisy on India.

But I do believe that the entry of the Maoists into the political structure has deepened Nepali democracy. The party has mobilised social groups that otherwise had little voice. It must be credited for the agenda of the republic, CA and inclusion. The 2006 People’s Movement would
have been impossible without them, and democrats who pretend to have done them a great favour forget that their own movement was confined to the vicinity of Ratna Park before the participation of the rebels.

While the Maoist model of the state is unacceptable, their presence offers us a chance to debate how to go beyond merely formalistic liberal democracy, which as we saw in the 1990s is a necessary but not sufficient system to address popular aspirations in this deeply unequal society. The last anti-Maoist coalition, conceived essentially by forces outside parliament, was a deep subversion of democratic norms – as is clear now, isolating the Maoists was neither sustainable nor intelligent as it only strengthened the dogmatists within.

But as the Maoists get ‘mainstreamed’, their degeneration has been rapid. The Maoist party is replicating the political culture and corrupt practices of the other parties, and it is slowly becoming disconnected from the changing aspirations of the new generation. The onus now is on them not to let their internal contradictions hold the country hostage, and to implement their commitments under the CPA.

The context of Prashant Jha's turn-around is that he is quitting his job with the Nepali Times and wants his last post to be "prescient". In some sense, he is shooting at hedging his bets and writing with a "long-term" view so that in the worst case, he can claim to have seen it before quitting. But the questions remain: how can a party that has held the country hostage with its anti-democratic viewpoints, complete lack of respect for other parties, and a need for exceptionalism by standing on the pillar of representing the People while claiming that others do not, especially in a democratic polity, expect other parties to come around to its viewpoints without a simultaneous quid pro quo? This is the basic premise on which the maoist versus anti-maoist ideological battle has been going on. Somehow expecting everyone else to forgive, forget and face their comeuppance for past maladies while the maoists have not given an inch in terms of breathing space seems like looking for that eternal golden handshake that has been elusive.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Some stuff from Claws: http://claws.in/index.php?action=master ... 14&u_id=36

Once completed, extension of the Lhasa-Xigaze railway to Kathmandu will exponentially expand China’s influence. It will facilitate transportation of huge volumes of goods and supplies to Nepal, thereby bringing Nepal closer to dependence on China. India’s special trade and transit treaty with Nepal will additionally permit Chinese goods to flow into India on extremely concessional terms. New Delhi needs to warn Kathmandu that its relationship with China is now unacceptably poised to cross the ‘red line’.

I think one should nt underestimate either the nepalis or bangladeshis or believe that they are idiots. BD enjoys a huge deficit with china, far more than it has with India. Same situation for nepal. Actually it is infinitely worse for nepal than for BD. At least with India, nepal can hope to reduce the trade deficit by exporting hydropower (due to close terrain and Nepal's tremendous potential). You cant send power over the himalayas, can you? Who is going to build a HV t&d network in that terrain where even roads dont exist and mule transport is normal? Even with chini maal, this is gonna be one tuf cookie. So what exactly can nepal export to tibet other than yak meat, butter and milk? I am just curious. The build-up of the road from Lhasa is to ensure that the tibetans dont feel left out (same as the thinking with the burma border areas in china) and with a motive to establish a regional connect between tibet and nepal + push in tinker-bell goods from china.

There will be protectionist measures from nepal if cheap chini goods flock and kill local industries. This will happen even if the maoists are running the country cos they cant aggravate their hoi polloi support and bequeath nepal to fatherland china. The central issue is if nepal actually does nt consume the chini tinker-bell goods and pushes them to India instead using the free transit and gets some middle-man money in the process. That is something for our side to determine if abnormal jumps are seen in trade volumes from established normative behavior. Plus, with some sort of opening up and connect between the Indian NE, nepal, bhutan and bangladesh, I am just plain confused.

Anyway, here is how BD is moving along: http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/n ... nid=182449
Bangladesh will earn about $50 million annually during the first five years of transit after infrastructure is created along corridors, according to a study. Once capital works are completed, the country will earn more than half a billion dollars annually from the sixth year onwards, the study predicted. At one point in time, the benefit will reach $1 billion a year, it said. Despite uncertainties, Bangladesh's benefit will be robust, said the study report. "This stream of benefits, albeit partial, would more than justify investment amounts."
...
A member of the committee said, as Bangladesh will not be able to make the full transit facility effective at the initial stage, its benefits will be less. However, when the improvement of the infrastructures is complete, the benefit will increase, he added.
Elsewhere, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110416/j ... 860990.jsp
Khanal does not want to follow in the footsteps of Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal or Prachanda who went to Beijing on his first trip overseas after taking the top job in 2008. In doing so, he broke an unwritten tradition that has seen most Nepali Prime Ministers before him make New Delhi their first destination.
...
Sources said Khanal hoped to request New Delhi to convince Madhesi parties and the Nepali Congress, both seen as pro-India, to agree to the extension. But New Delhi believes the source of Khanal’s problems is Prachanda, his anti-India propaganda and his desire to win a fresh election that would allow him to change the Constitution and make Nepal a totalitarian regime.
Nihar Nayak's take, nothing new here though: http://idsa.in/idsacomments/TimetoReass ... yak_190411
Despite the political uncertainties in Nepal, Indo-Nepal relations have not been at a stand-still. Numerous high-level visits have taken place in the last one year or more. Mr. Krishna himself visited Nepal (his first) in mid-January 2010, during which he had met a wide range of political leaders and discussed the future of the peace process in Nepal as well as various issues of bilateral concern like Civil Aviation, Trade Treaty, Joint Committee on Water Resources at the Secretary level, etc. During this earlier visit, he had laid particular emphasis on the need for regular high level bilateral interactions to strengthen India-Nepal relationship.
...
India remains Nepal’s largest trade partner, the largest source of foreign direct investment and tourist arrivals. There has been a sharp increase in bilateral trade in recent years. India continues to support developmental activities in Nepal at the grass-roots level. So far, over 400 projects have either been completed or are under various stages of implementation in Nepal. India also considers it important to develop human resources in Nepal. It provides scholarships for Nepalese students to pursue their education either in India or in Nepal; in 2010, some 1800 Nepalese students were given scholarships.
And then: http://www.ekantipur.com/2011/04/17/edi ... 32648.html
Many may not know that the US is Nepal’s second largest export partner. It is one of a few trading partners with which Nepal has trade surplus. According to statistics of the US Census Bureau, Nepal exported goods worth $60.51 million to the US against the import of $28 million in 2010.
...
A new chapter began in the Nepal-United States trade relationship on Friday with the signing of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA). After a long homework, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari and United States Trade Representative (USTR) Ron Kirk signed the agreement in Washington DC, thus opening the possibility of preferential entry of Nepali products to the United States, the world’s largest market. The agreement has provided institutional framework for bilateral talks to enhance trade and investment, discuss trade issues and promote more comprehensive trade agreement between the two countries. TIFA will replace the Bilateral Economic and Trade Agreement between Nepal and the US reached in 1947. Nepal is the fourth South Asian country to enter into TIFA with the United States. The US has so far signed the TIFA with 42 countries, including South Asian—Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

According to Pandey, the US’ interest is in the service sector, while Nepal’s is in goods. “If the TIFA content has stringent provision on Intellectual Property Right (IPR) than that of WTO, it will harm Nepal,” said Pandey. Nepal recently applied for the Generalised System of Preference (GSP) facility for 11 readymade garment items and a pashmina item. The US reviews the GSP facility that provides duty-free entry for up to 4,800 products from 129 countries every ten years. “If we get the GSP facility, our garments would be 17 percent cheaper in the US market,” said Pandey. For Nepali readymade garments, the US used to be the largest market with the export touching Rs 10 billion mark in 2000. After reaching $171.39 million mark in 2003, Nepal’s export to the US is on a continuous decline, plummeting to 60.51 million in 2010. This fall is mainly attributed to the readymade garments and pashmina that could not compete with other countries’ products.
And this might interest Paul and force him to make a short post :P: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MC31Df02.html
Shah’s book has also considerably diluted, if not completely eliminated, a widely-held perception that Gyanendra had a hand in the palace shootout. People across the country in Hindu-majority Nepal held a deep-rooted suspicion that Gyanendra wanted to be king, and that this prompted him to hatch a conspiracy to kill his brother. Despite a lack of evidence, suspicion was also widespread among foreign commentators that Gyanendra "had mass-murdered his way to the throne like Shakespeare’s Richard III", as wrote Francis G Hutchins, Birendra’s tutor in Harvard in 1967, in a book published in 2007. Since Gyanendra was the immediate beneficiary of his brother's death, all of the statements and interviews he gave afterward failed to convince the doubting public.

Now, by disclosing some incidents and confirming speculative stories about the reckless behavior of the then crown prince, Dipendra, Shah’s book gives credence to the official storyline - that the son killed his parents because they refused to let him marry the girl he loved. His grandmother had one choice for Nepal's future queen, the mother had another and neither made Dipendra happy. While the father was indifferent and indecisive, the mother was threatening that unless Dipendra married the girl she had chosen, he would lose his right to succeed his father as the king. This made Dipendra, a drug addict, desperate. According to Shah’s account, based on information from several sources, Dipendra was being manipulated by external elements inimical to king Birendra’s aims to protect the national interests of Nepal, a country sandwiched between India and China. Dipendra was incited to kill his parents, but how he fell to fatal gunshot wounds is still a mystery. The suicide theory does not tally with his declared desire to marry the girl and eventually become the king of Nepal.

Shah’s book contains passages saying how and when the Maoists of Nepal were trained at Chakrata near the northern Indian town of Dehradun. Recent WikiLeaks disclosures through The Hindu, an Indian newspaper, have already seen evidence substantiating some of the Shah’s remarks. That New Delhi played the role of interlocutor for the Maoists and their non-communist allies to form an alliance against the monarchy through a 12-point agreement, in 2005, is an open secret. Pranab Mukherji, India’s external affairs minister at that time, admitted that Maoists were assisted in their bid to enter Nepal’s political mainstream and rise to power. That the situation took a u-turn later when Maoists began to ignore their benefactor, is a different story.

Another point related to the palace massacre was Shah’s own role during the crisis. What were he and his security apparatus doing when the king, queen and other members of the royal family at the dining hall of Narayanhity Palace were being shot dead one by one? Whom can Shah blame when the four-layer security system surrounding the palace premises was breached? Through several chapters and paragraphs, Shah explains that the hall where the royals had gathered for a private dinner was not accessible to security personnel. Nobody could have checked the crown prince for carrying weapons. Security cordons alone cannot offer foolproof security to anyone, says Shah, citing assassinations such as the former US president John F Kennedy and former Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi.
sum
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by sum »

Shah’s book contains passages saying how and when the Maoists of Nepal were trained at Chakrata near the northern Indian town of Dehradun.
Nepali maoists were trained at SFF bases? :-? :-?
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Wiki says that base is used by R&AW also. Prachanda was based out of Dilli till Dilli brought him out of the closet for the famous six point agreement. Baburam Bhattarai was also based out of Dilli and he is still grateful for that. The maoists were used to cut down on the ex-King, that much is clear. Whether it has been an efficacious way to cut down on the ex-King or not is a long-term question which is debatable. Anyway,
It is time other main stream parties put their house in order to meet the new challenge now posed by the Maoists. In the Nepali Congress, the Deuba faction does not appear to have reconciled to its merger with the parent unit. The UML is a divided house with the Madhav Nepal- Oli faction openly defying the party chairman and the Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal. The Madhesis are getting split into many factions and their influence is waning.
http://southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cnotes7%5Cnote622.html
Sushil Koirala clearly explains the internal division in NC: http://www.ekantipur.com/2011/04/18/ope ... 32688.html
There is now a growing voice for the extension of the Constituent Assembly tenure. What is the official Nepali Congress stand on this?

If the Maoists are reasonable I still believe we can complete both the peace and constitution processes by May 28. But they have been raising unnecessary obstacles. For instance, they want us to compromise on a democratic constitution. Nepali Congress can never do that. We cannot compromise on the fundamentals of democracy.
In other words, as should have been predicted by anyone with some knowledge, the May 28 deadline will not be met and will be extended. The question is what next after that, nothing is a good answer.

china's influence: http://www.ekantipur.com/2011/04/21/top ... 32867.html
Newly appointed State Minister for Finance Laharkyal Lama, who was dragged into controversy following media reports about his possession of multiple citizenship, stepped down from the ministerial post on Thursday. Earlier, media reports had alleged that Lama was holding the citizenships of Nepal and India and was actively involved in the ‘Free Tibet Movement’.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Finally, the extradition treaty is making news in DDM: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 048254.cms
To allay overall security concerns, Krishna has asked Nepal to sign the revised Extradition Treaty and Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, which have been gathering dust for five years, as well as finalise the new boundary map that would help manage the 1880km open border between Nepal and India. To ensure the protection of Indian investment in Nepal, India wants the formalisation of the Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement and a Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement.
...
While Sood has been dogged by Maoist cadres showing him the black flag and on one occasion, under the leadership of a former Maoist minister, throwing shoes at his car, Indian joint ventures in Nepal have been facing strikes, labour trouble and violent attacks, also led by the former guerrillas. Ahead of Krishna's arrival, protesters smashed a projector and microphone belonging to the GMR Group, whose winning the contract to develop the 300 MW Upper Karnali hydropower project has been under constant attack by the Maoists.
To describe what is going on, it is a game between GoI and the maoists with neither side giving away a bit on their future stakes. This is the main thing, the rest are all symptoms of this play-act. To bring this play-act to an end, with the GoI standing out, there is just one way: to make the maoists irrelevant. I can think of many ways: engineer a split in the maoists is the most civil version. With the ideological divisions in the maoist front, this is a real possibility. The splinter group under MBK will end up being more violent than the cabal now, but that is a short-term price to pay. The other thing to do is to hit the Nepali media very badly in a shock and awe strategy that explicitly describes how two can play propaganda. Once the split is engineered, if elections are called, it will be fun to watch the jackals bite themselves. Not like they aint doing it now, but they will do it with more venom and toxin than now.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Hari Seldon »

From twitter by @naveenks

>>Nepal asks India for Rs 3 billion credit guarantee to finance oil imports http://bit.ly/jk0Tqn
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

As if they had infinitely many choices:
Ruling coalition partners Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M) and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) on May 2 agreed to extend Constituent Assembly (CA)’s term that expires on May 28 after forging consensus with other political parties, reports Nepal News. The meeting between the two parties took a decision to this effect. The meeting also decided to hold discussions with opposition parties including Nepali Congress to bring out early budget and take them into confidence on the matter. Emerging from the meeting, UCPN-M vice-chairman Narayan Kaji Shrestha said, "The meeting concluded that there is no alternative left but to extend Constituent Assembly’s term. But the duration will be fixed after consultations with other political parties.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal said the constitution drafting process can move ahead smoothly only after the peace process is taken to a logical conclusion. Stating that the coalition partner UCPN-M's role is crucial to ensure successful conclusion of the peace process, he said without the active participation and involvement of the Maoist party that task is next to impossible. Khanal praised the crucial decisions taken by the Maoists in favor the ongoing processes of constitution drafting and peace and described them as vital to successfully concluded the peace process.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Hari Seldon »

Met folks who'd recently been to Nepal. They say Kathmandu is a mess - power, water and other basic amenity problems, rampaging food inflation and the like. Wonder how long the game will go on.

Stan saar, any possibility that some combination of Nepali polity factions will want a merger with india with some constitutional protection guarantees (like Art 371 for Sikkim)? Just asking, quite unlikely, I know.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Hari Seldon wrote: Stan, any possibility that some combination of Nepali polity factions will want a merger with india with some constitutional protection guarantees (like Art 371 for Sikkim)? Just asking, quite unlikely, I know.
I just read what people write, I have nt interacted with anyone close enough to ask this. To be fair, I still think I dont know what I am talking about. Yet...

The trajectory may have to take the form of an economic union before some common threat forces a strategic union. Political union is the de facto expression of tryst with destiny. India-nepal balance of trade is something that changes dramatically from year to year, so Nepal is strictly not dependent on India in terms of economic relations at least as yet. What could and will change the balance is trade in hydro-power. Unfortunately, due to its own making, even last year, Nepal was importing power from India. In some sense, the boat that the Bhutanese are hitching is being missed by Nepal. (To ensure long-term security for themselves, the Bhutanese are chucking out "trouble-makers" from Bhutan, which is an euphemism for Hindu Nepalis with a maoist proclivity of sorts. To ensure that the virus does not spread to Buddhists of all ilks inside Bhutan, slow-mo democrazy is being introduced. From all indications, Indian FP establishment seems to have come to grips with this reality of expulsion of Nepalis from Bhutan. The question is what is the destination, which is a shady question in the refugee circles as always.) Back to trade, the other big importer of Nepali goods is the US while china is a major exporter vis-a-vis Nepal. In terms of competitiveness, the Nepalis fare well wrt India than with china, a fact that is well-understood by the Nepali polity. Most of the folks are rational, so the only direction for India-Nepal trade is up, even if you will let them decide both sides of the equation AND the geography, they will import from china and export to India. Which is exactly where they are trying to position themselves by funneling chini goods at cut-throat prices to India by acting as a trade middle-man of sorts. I will call it the trade mercenary position, but the Indian party is aware of the jugaad that the Nepalis could play. In any case, maoist or non-maoist government, short-term progress in terms of hydro is going to be slow. One way to force the Nepalis to open up the hydro sector is to forcibly inter-link the HEV-T&D network in the border areas. In some sense, minus the force, this is happening. BD seems to be slowly integrating with WB, Bihar and UP with Nepal, Bhutan is already decently integrated with Darjeeling, etc. Even TN is thinking of an under-water HEV network to SL, which is insane even at the Palk Strait distance, but still the vision is "power is destiny" with no puns intended. If this happens, balance of trade could be significantly reduced to Nepal's happiness, and Indian border areas could gain some much needed power, and everyone could bullshit on how green they all are much to the chagrin of the hypocritical goras. But this is going to be an engg challenge, building a HEV T&D network in the sub-Himalayan terrain is no fricking joke, maintaining that with the Indian and Nepali aam polloi's callous attitude is even more surreal. What is worse is the possibility of earthquakes which hardly get reported and the enormity of the Himalayan rivers. Overall, even the chinis with a robot-head and C&C from the top brass will think of it as a bullshit game. That is exactly the vision of the Ministry of Power. Actually I read this report a few days back and was amazed that noone had noticed it with all the bullshit parade on the OBL dhaaga: http://www.energetica-india.net/india-c ... rc-region/ If you cant see a game-changer when it is happening before your eyes, I think all that brf-education of so many years is pointless, that is my rant of the day :). But I must admit that I get to see some of the smart-grid bullshit from the shoulder of a giant, so I get to see a little more than the noise that floats around with the Al Gore shenanigans.

Anyway, in terms of strategic threat to Nepal and India, it could only be the chinis or a resurgent claim to Greater Tibet. But the one-way traffic as of now is that Nepal (at least its polity) views India as a threat and not somuch of china. There are a lot of red-rags such as Sagauli treaty, Greater Nepal, Anglo-Nepal wars etc that float around, but fat chance that anything in terms of concession that India is going to make to assuage Nepal. What could happen is an invitation for Nepal to join forces with India in a de facto strategic alliance if the chini expansionist threat forces the near-possibility of an Indo-chini war. For that some carrots may have to be dangled, far more than a trade linkage with BD or Bhutan. We already have dangled the carrot of free movement of people to India, so what is left. I can think of massive underwriting of all the accumulated bad debts and economy, in general, creation of jobs, para-tariff barrier reduction or rather elimination, massive creation of educational opportunities, and essentially a protectionist status in an economic sense till Nepal can take off which it will if it puts its head in the right place. For that, the chinis have to open their hands and force this union. Fat chance it could happen with just two of us clapping. For the chinis to open their hands, the pakis have to act and hunt for Kashgar and Xinjiang. Good chance that could happen in another 20-30 years, but it will. It has to, eventually. It is written in the paki brain to bite everyone around it. In short, a re-alignment of using the paki dog to bite its current master will force the master to go to leash the dog opening up all kindsa possibilities. I know there will be loss of lives on our side too, but I cant be too un-excited by this possibility at this stage. I am just worried that the idiot from the western hemisphere will be the uninvited idiot to a direct head-on between the ideas of India, china and a neo-Islam of sorts, but with the tanking of the economy in massa, with the flight of intellectual capital from the center of the greatest crowdsourcing of intel capital since the 16th or 17th centuries, and with the demographic taking over of certain regions of massa by the spanish speakers, massa is going to do what it accuses India and china of: looking inwards. Well, it better look inwards, cos it is going to stink there sooner than later. Will it allocate some fraction of energy to look at the resource-rich central asia or will it firefight at home and if it does both, will it be a pest in this matter to Indian interests or will it join forces with India? Either way, opens up a long laundry list of complicated scenarios I can dream about.

In short, Nepal and India are entwined by geography and union or no union, as PM MMS says, and as FSecNRao tweets, "saakadai pee is destiny." For Tam-challenged, that is "sewage and shit are destiny." I could nt resist, that was our iskool jibe at geography, we had better ones for physics =)).
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Nepal fights to save its pashmina industry
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/a ... 996885.ece
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Sridhar K »

Just back from a trip to Nepal, primarily to Mukthinath. Chennai- ND- Kathmandu-Pokhara-Jumsom-Mukthinath and back. A few random points.

1) People generally feel that last two years have been pretty peaceful and they are happy about the ouster of the Royal family. However there is some political tension with strikes in Kathmandu, Pokhara and spreading.
2) Heavy armed police presence everywhere. Police armed with FNFAL, INSAS (not the black one) , M16s.
3) Saw Army's Mountain warfare training school in Jumsom (8600 ft above MSL) with an airport operating Dornier flights.
4) Indian currency is rampant. Rs. 500 and 1000 INR banned in Nepal.
5) Tibetian/Buddhist constitutes around 15% of the population. Tibetan Buddhism's influence on Hinduism is very much visible
6) Private airline industry is dominated by Jetstream aircrafts and Dorniers.
7) No visible public transportation except for taxis
8) Power situation is very bad with 10 hr powercuts per day
9) Shortage of diesel is very much visible
10) Maruti, Hyundais dominate the car scene whilst Tata dominates the commercial vehicle segment
11) All SAARC country citizens are treated on par. Nothing special for India except the influence of INR . Pegged to 1 INR = 1.6 Nepal rupee.
12) Indian products dominate the market. Very little Chinese influence seen except for electronics and shoes.
13) Tourism is very good with decent lodges, food for westeners touring for Trekking purpose in far off places.
14) People are generally very courteous, rice eating
15) Roads within town are very good but the same cannot be said of the mountain highways. The road from Jumsom to Mukthinath on a Mahindra Jeep was pure offroad territory. Mahindra's role the roost here.
16) Mukthinath temple is for both Hindus and Buddhist. In fact a Buddhist woman priest was doing the duty inside the sanctorom when I visited.
17) Kathmandu is over crowded, not so good water, bad power situation, traffic while Pokhara is more beautiful.
18) Roads are generally much cleaner than most cities in India. Public very much conscious in use of plastic covers.
19) Japan & German partnership are very much visible in educatation, roads etc.
20) Hardly any visible EJ presence except for occasional signs in far a couple of places.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by hulaku »

Bhutanese royal wedding to be held in October

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13468111

Cool guy. I have partied with him and this guy is Kool.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Prashant Jha comes up with his latest broken record:
http://www.hindu.com/2011/05/25/stories ... 201200.htm
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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Restructuring Nepal’s Provinces ---- Brig SK Chatterji (Retd)
http://claws.in/index.php?action=master ... 2&u_id=122
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Airavat »

Hydro-power and climate change in Bhutan
Yeshi Wangdi, director-general of Bhutan’s department of energy, said hydropower now generates more than 50 % of the government’s gross revenue, through sales to India. “The government feels the urgency to develop hydropower schemes in an accelerated manner, before the waters become dry,” he said. “We expect that to happen in 50 to 60 years. So before that, if we can have all these projects, at least they will have earned all the returns.”

Sonam Yanglay, Bhutan’s Director-General of Mines and Geology, said his teams working in the mountains are seeing some glaciers retreat as much as 100 feet a year. “That receding rate is really, really high,” he said. “At this rate, we recognize that if climate change is not contained at a certain point, countries like ours, where the economy is dependent on hydropower, are going to be very, very badly affected.”
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Something interesting cooking in CPN(M)
As factions of vice chairmen Mohan Baidya Kiran and Baburam Bhattarai are learnt to be preparing to come up with a separate proposal to counter party chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s proposal for power-sharing within the party, the meeting was put off to give more time to efforts aimed to work out joint proposal of the party. General secretary Ram Bahadur Thapa, who was earlier known as a Dahal supporter and military chief during the insurgency of People's War days, also switched side by attending a secret meeting of Baidya-Bhattarai factions in Lalitpur yesterday. Like Baidya and Bhattarai, Thapa, too, has expressed discontent with the way Dahal has handled party affairs and wants him to divide party responsibilities among the leaders.
...
If Dahal loses the end-game, the peace and constitution process, already deadlocked for several weeks, will face a signal shift. The steady erosion of his control over the party and reputation as a “master of double-speak” began with his decision to remove the then Army Chief Rukmangad Katwal in 2008. Dahal has few options. He could still play the General Convention card ostensibly to elect a new party leadership, or, he could try persuading Bhattarai, who like him, favours peace and constitution, by offering to make him the next prime minister. Dahal backer politburo member Hemant Prakash Oli feels despite odds Dahal will scrape through. Even outsiders are betting on Dahal’s political nine lives. Left-leaning analyst Shyam Shrestha feels that despite differences over organisational reshuffling both Dahal and Bhattarai will stand together for peace and the constitution.

The Numbers Game: 16-member Standing Committee
Dahal -- 3 (Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Post Bahadur Bogati & Barsha Man Pun)
Bhattarai -- 4 (Baburam Bhattarai, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, Ram Bahadur Thapa & Dina Nath Sharma)
Baidya -- 4 (Mohan Baidya, CP Gajurel, Dev Gurung & Netra Bikram Chand)
Undecided -- 5 (Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Giriraj Mani Pokhrel, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Amek Sherchan, Lila Mani Pokhrel)

148-member Central Committee
Dahal -- 53
Bhattarai -- 26
Baidya -- 46
Neutral -- 23

Meanwhile, Devighat Hydroelectric Project has been successfully re-habilitated by an Indian grant of Rs.15 crores and an Indian Line of Credit (LoC) of Rs.15 crores through Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited (BHEL), India. Devighat Hydroelectric Project, which is located at 70 km. north west of Kathmandu on the right bank of Trishuli river which is a tailrace development of Trishuli Hydropower station (THPS), was originally commissioned in 1984 under Indian grant.

Elsewhere, china has offered to develop Nepal's hydro potential. This is like a red flag before a silent bull. Do the chinis really think they can push power across the Himalayas?
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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Chinese foundation plans $3 billion project in Nepal
http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 233492.ece
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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Battle over Buddha creates strange bed fellows
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 382935.cms
Gorkhaland Agreement: Will prosperity follow peace?
http://claws.in/index.php?action=master ... 4&u_id=142
Benefits of the Pegging Arrangement Between Nepali and Indian Currencies ---- Hari Bansh Jha
http://idsa.in/idsacomments/Benefitsoft ... jha_210711
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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“No pact on Chinese Lumbini project”
http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 302767.ece
A highly placed government source told The Hindu on Thursday night, “This is very mysterious. There is no official information even till now. We kept quiet for a while for diplomatic reasons, but till now there is nothing. We want to develop Lumbini but how can we give total ownership of a major project, in a sacred place, to a foreign foundation? If Nepal was Buddha's janmabhoomi, birthplace, then India was Buddha's karmabhoomi. All actors have to be on board for such a project.”

I can bet my top dollar that this is a statement that was used by the Indian embassy and interlocutors to their Nepali counterparts. I am also willing to bet that this is going to be used as a ruse by the Prachanda faction to create some tussle. But then the party itself is divided and so is the nation on the question of Buddha. Too many fingers have been burnt by this bonhomie between Paras and Prachanda and a godless communist nation that cannot accord sanctity to Buddhist symbols in a toothless display of machismo. Popcorn time....
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

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Factional feud in the open ---- Prashant Jha
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article2311292.ece
But just before the constitutional deadline of May 28, Mr. Prachanda shifted track and allied with Dr. Bhattarai. The chairman declared, including in his interview to The Hindu, that there was no looking “left and right,” and that the party would now move forward to complete the process of integration and rehabilitation and writing a constitution. In principle, the Maoists accepted the modality proposed by the Nepal Army (NA) to create a mixed force under an NA directorate. Dr. Bhattarai supported the chairman's political line of “peace and constitution,” while Mr Kiran felt “betrayed” at Mr. Prachanda's “u-turn.”
...
Mr. Prachanda continued to command the loyalty and support of all top PLA commanders. They argued that this was not the time to weaken the chairman since only he could complete the peace and constitutional process. They pointed to the “unnatural” alliance of Mr. Kiran and Dr. Bhattarai. Over three weeks, the two groups engaged in a bitter debate on how to break the impasse.
...
However, he agreed to make Dr. Bhattarai the head of the parliamentary party board and propose him as the party's official prime ministerial candidate to lead a unity government. Mr. Kiran was to be made the head of the party's organisational and disciplinary departments.
...
And vice-chairman Prakash would be sent to the present government as the Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, replacing the present incumbent. A new team of Maoist Ministers representing all factions — giving an equitable share to women and the marginalised communities — would be sent to the present Cabinet.
...
The Maoists have demanded that the leadership of the mixed force under the NA directorate be given to a former PLA commander; this force should have a combat role; and the entry of combatants should happen ‘unit wise.' {Not going to have any takers in the NA}
...
The opposition, NC, has asked for the Prime Minister's resignation as per the five-point agreement signed when the CA was being extended. It sees the present Maoist proposal to change its Ministers as a violation of the agreement. Prime Minister Khanal, too, is reportedly unwilling to change his Cabinet, and has asked the Maoists to focus on the peace process instead. Maoists argue that they are within their rights to change party representatives in the government.
...
Instead of getting bogged down in changing Ministers, what makes sense for the Maoists is to focus on arriving at a detailed deal on integration and rehabilitation. {Prashant Jha is asking the maoists to go for the jugular, the Ministerial re-allocation is just show. The real price lays in bombaring the NA with PLA combatants and changing the discourse because power flows from the barrel of a gun.}
...
If there is no progress in the next one month, extending the CA will become an increasingly difficult proposition. {If there is no progress, there will be some more extensions ad infinitum. That is how Nepal runs. There is a budget that needs to be passed, so there will be compromises. Once the budget gets passed, people will slouch back and think about it later when things become itchy bitchy. Heh, its called stalemate-pal for a reason.}

Nepal Maoists serve ultimatum to PM
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 422142.cms
Nepal PM refuses to give in to Maoist ultimatum
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 434187.cms

Al toilet is making it all a bit too sensationalistic, Jhalanath Khanal will give way any time soon. That is how he will still be the PM. However, he will do it quietly without much fanfare that al toilet expects him to do. JNK waited so long and contested so many failed elections to usurp MKN from his top honcho seat even canoodling across the lobby of the MahaPanchayat, despite MKN being from his own party. Is he going to resign for some petty bullshit like re-allocation of ministerial berths? No. Wait for one to two more weeks.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Hahhha, just as I made it out in the above post:
Nepal PM announces he will quit by August 13
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/nepal ... 110802.htm
said that he would quit if the major works related to the 2006 landmark peace process were not completed by August 13. {which they wont be :) }
...
Ten ministers, including nine from the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist party, the largest party in the coalition, were sworn in amid a power struggled in the Maoist party. {so basically, Khanal wants to quit not because of any moral posturing, but because of pressure from within his party ranks that the maoists who have been inducted as ministers will hijack the whole govt. But if you left it to Khanal, he would do a spoon-dance with the maoists in his running after power. Thankfully, the ML people are divided right in the middle.}
...
top Maoist leader Mohan Vaidya "Kiran" has claimed that the former rebels should get another chance to lead the next national consensus government with the inclusion of the Nepali Congress and Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist. {fat chance that is happening.}

I will make one more prediction. Come, August 13, Jhalanath Khanal wont quit, he will cite some bs and stick around. But he will quit, in a short period after that, as the pressure piles on his head. His own party people will ask him to quit. The NC is piling the pressure saying that there is a violation of the 5 point agreement. The maoists want to remote control the govt without taking responsibility for being the figurehead and will leave it to JNK as an acceptable compromise. The Army wants no incorporation of the PLA in the mainstream and will want to do a brass-handshake. The maoists want a golden-handshake for a good fraction and incorporation of the rest in the mainstream military. Nice fat chance. In the midst of all this, JNK's days are a-numbered either way. August 13 or no August 13, he is going to quit soon.

So, let me assume that the next round has started in terms of who will be the PM. Some of the old contenders are going to rise again like a phoenix. Madhav Ku. Nepal is unacceptable to the maoists and he is perceived as more of a spoon to the Indians. Ram Chandra Poudel is not going to be liked either. Nor Sher Bahadur Deuba nor Sujata Koirala. Jhalanath Khanal cant come back yet again, he is just going to leave. So who is going to fill in as a new candidate for the PM? We cant have elections yet. A million$ question with no obvious answers. May be they can outsource this job to Manmohan Singh and think of him as a reincarnation of Manmohan Adhikary? All kidding aside,
Khanal said his CPN-UML party has decided to support Maoist deputy leader Baburam Bhattarai for the prime minister's post if the next government is formed under the leadership of the former rebels.

That will be fun. Dr. Bhattarai is trying to forge a middle-path and he seems to be more or less acceptable (if one goes by the reading of SD Muni, who seems to have some insider info on these matters) to the Indians. He will have a ball of a time trying to ensure that the rug is not pulled from his beneath by the Prachanda cabal and the Kiran cabal. And 99% of the time, he will be fire-fighting at home turf and outsourcing one or two scandals like Pashupathinath to keep the cadre happy. I want the maoists to split, they will. The combined weight of the three-way pulling is going to make the party split right along the ideological axis, its a question of when, not if. But I want the split to make India the stronger in the wheeling-dealings. The way the split could happen now, its unpredictable as to who will emerge the frontman. And there are no illusions of being a nice nation in this game, its a game, and someone has to be a loser. I would rather go by Gen. MacArthur's dictum on this matter, so hard luck Nepalis. And even harder luck to the drones from across the himalayas.

PS: Nepal is like a chess match in slow-mo. While one can see the contours of an eventuality, this is in the midst of pain perpetuated by having to see people dragging their backsides slowly, fighting, bickering, whining, and trying to defy Yama-dharma-raja all the way.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Some big news today:
Nepal may opt for mixed electoral system ---- PRASHANT JHA
http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 322691.ece

While the NC had demanded a traditional Westminster parliamentary system, the Maoists had argued strongly in favour of a directly elected president who would be the head of government and state. In the task-force, the different parties seem to have arrived at a compromise formula, on the lines of the ‘French model'. Speaking exclusively to The Hindu, Mr. Karna said, “The President will be directly elected by the people, and will be responsible for foreign relations, and the army. The Prime Minister will be elected by the Parliament and take charge of day to day administrative matters, budget and governance.” This however remains a tentative proposal, and no party has given up its original stand in the negotiations yet.

On the electoral system, the NC had pushed for direct first-past-the-post elections while the Maoists had initially argued for a fully proportional representation based system, on the lines of a multi-member parliamentary constituency. But there is an emerging consensus around a mixed electoral system, similar to the one that was used in the Constituent Assembly elections. A leader involved in the negotiations said, “A certain proportion of seats would be based on direct elections, while the rest would be PR based where parties would select candidates based on their vote share. The selection of candidates will be inclusive and proportional, giving space to marginalised communities.”
The mixed model system is the precise cause for the stalemate today in Nepal. Basically, of the 601 members in the body who could pass legislation to formulate a Constituent Assembly, there is no party that has a majority. If this stalemate is continued, we will see more idiocy in the future.
On federalism, the CA's committee on state restructuring has proposed the formation of 14 states, in accordance with the position of the Maoists who had a majority in the committee. The NC, in an unofficial proposal, has said seven states would be appropriate. It has also demanded the formation of a State Restructuring Commission as stipulated by the interim constitution. But both the Maoists and the United Democratic Madhesi Front have opposed this. Maoist negotiator Khimlal Devkota told The Hindu, “It is too late to form an SRC. Instead, our chairman Prachanda has proposed the formation of a team of specialists. We can arrive at a political decision on the number of states; the criteria would be identity and capacity. The specialists can then give us suggestions on exact boundaries.”
This is a serious red-rag on Nepal's unity because the maoists take on federal structure is rooted in the standard communist yakkitak of ethnic or linguistic "nationalities", which is funny if not for the dichotomy and anachronism with what is today's world. The maoists' idea is to act as the protector of identity of the ethnic "nationalities". And by nationalities, what is meant are Newars, Tamangs, Magars, Gurung, Sherpa, Limbu, Rai, and Tharu. You can see the % from the 2001 census here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographi ... #Ethnicity
Basically, its a tight leash on the Khas groups and what are calling themselves minority ethnicities. The maoists get most of their armed cadre from these ethnicities and this recognition of the unilateral promulgation of different states was a move to keep their cadre happy.

Btw, a not-so-surprising fact is that every reasonable politician in Nepal today are Khas Brahmin (Bahun): Madhav Ku. Upadhyaya (MK Nepal as he calls himself), Jhalnath Khanal, Mohan Vaidya Kiran, Baburam Bhattarai, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the late Girija Prasad Koirala, Ram Chandra Poudel. The Shahs and Ranas are of course Khas Chhetris. Wow, so much for ethnic rights and nationalities and all that yakkitak.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by negi »

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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Some tidbits from Nepali press:
UML lawmaker Sapana Pradhan Malla, NC lawmaker Suprabha Ghimire and UCPN (Maoist) lawmaker Renu Dahal are among other lawmakers visiting New Delhi from Sunday.
Renu Dahal is of course the daughter of Prachanda. His son, Prakash Dahal, is trying to hobnob with the chinis. He even was in HK with his papa lying all the way that they are there to meet the expat Nepalis there. So there you go: daughter mediating with India, son mediating with china. Much like nepal caught between two giants and not sure which side to side. If you did nt get the sub-text, people's revolution ends at home :).
Nepali Congress (NC) senior leader Sher Bahadur Deuba and UCPN (Maoist) Vice-chairman Baburam Bhattarai have claimed themselves as the prime ministerial candidate of the next government. Talking to local reporters in Gorkha on Saturday, Deuba and Bhattarai presented themselves as the future premier of the country.
Most campaigns begin at Gorkha. Deuba vs. Bhattarai is a no-brainer of a contest, even the evil Indians will side with the good Doktar, only because if we choose to let this moment slip away, more evil shall haunt us.
The Maoist vice-chairman dismissed media reports that Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal backed Deuba as next prime ministerial candidate.
Thats internal politics for you, I love this business better than the whine dhaaga business.
A Chinese high-level delegation led by a special envoy of Chinese President Hu Jintao is visiting Nepal from August 16.
We circle you in Mongolia, Viet Nam and Laos, you can try your hand in Nepal, SL and BD. We will see who ends up being the winners. Bring it on. If it was nt for a phamily phorum, I will have some more choicest expletives added to that line. Actually, much before we find out who the winner is, your deepel than oshean fliends would have burst one more haseena atimbum to prove their religiosity. Welcome to instant karma.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

Stan_Savljevic wrote: I will make one more prediction. Come, August 13, Jhalanath Khanal wont quit, he will cite some bs and stick around. But he will quit, in a short period after that, as the pressure piles on his head. His own party people will ask him to quit. The NC is piling the pressure saying that there is a violation of the 5 point agreement.

I hate to say, said so. August 13 has come and gone, no JHK quitting so far. Not from my reading of the Nepali version of ddm of course. Lets see how long the bubble gum shall last.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by shyamd »

Stanji, simple question - Is Nepal on our side or not? Will it split if the moment comes on taking sides?

Thanks for your knowledge.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by shyamd »

Multi party delegation due in Kathmandu. They are on a private visit to meet thenew nepalese ministers. This is after Beijing sent a big delegation.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Stan_Savljevic »

shyamd wrote:Stan, simple question - Is Nepal on our side or not? Will it split if the moment comes on taking sides?
Nepal is not on our side. Nor should you expect it to. Nepal has been wedged between India and china and the reality has not changed for the last 300 years or so. Noone has been more self-conscious of this fact than Nepalis themselves.

Everyone in power knows the power of India, the power of Hinduism and Buddhism, the soft power of Bollywood, the power of Indian currency, the power of South Block, the power of what happens in India on how the Nepalese view themselves whether it is elections or Anna Hazare, the clamoring for democrazy based on the Indian model of some sorts, the somewhat reasonably successful (as perceived by them, not the ground reality) reservation policies in India, the apolitical army, the vanishing of privy privileges, the cutting down on zamindari system which pakistan or BD could not do, the power of jobs and cross-border marital/business alliances, the power of free movement to India as they please, and not the least, a huge Nepali-speaking polity in Darjeeling and the Siliguri corridor, Sikkim and Bhutan. Nepali is a Schedule 8 language under the Indian Constitution.

They also know the pain of overindulgence by SSB and the corruption at cross-border posts, cross-border violence and migration of criminals from one side to the other, blames of FICN deserved or otherwise, blames of letting the pakis in, a need to maintain a distance so that they dont get sikkim-ized, a victimist mindset wrt Kalapani, Susta, Mahakali to name a few, trade deficit and a growing trade deficit and the hopeless it brings in, the game of playing one against the other to get a better bargain and the attendant problems this game theoretic mechanism brings in, the pain of being branded "chinese" or "gurkha" in India, etc. And more.

If a border clash happens between India and china now, Nepal will try to play switzerland so that it wont get pummeled. Best case, it will allow some soft territory on both ends for soldiers of both sides to heal and run back to war. It tried to in the 1962 episode, but not without glaring from the GoI. The CIA and RAW were running the Mustang based Tibetan resistance movement before the CIA wound it down due to Nixonian and NPT compulsions. Between the end of the 62 war and 1975, these all happened: Sikkim acceded to the Indian Union, 1971 war caused a splinter to Pakistan, flights that stopped in Katunayake in SL led to massive takleef from the Indian establishment, the Buddha smiled, etc. There was a lot of internal churning in India too with Emergency about to be established, not to mention that Naxalbari was happening in West Bengal not far from Nepal, caste wars due to pre-Ranvir Sena types in Bihar, Chambal valley based dacoits running rife, etc. This is what late-King Birendra said in 1973:
“As heirs to one of the most ancient civilizations in Asia, our natural concern is to preserve our independence, a legacy handed down to us by history [...] we need peace for our security, we need peace for our independence, and we need peace for development. And if today, peace is an overriding concern for us, it is only because our people genuinely desire peace in our country, in our region and elsewhere in the world. It is with this earnest desire to institutionalize peace that I stand to make a proposition - a proposition that my country, Nepal, be declared a Zone of Peace. [...] As heirs to a country that has always lived in independence, we wish to see that our freedom and independence shall not be thwarted by the changing flux of time when understanding is replaced by misunderstanding, when conciliation is replaced by belligerency and war. (13).

To me, the one thing that stands out is the recognition that Nepal is a country on its own because of certain historical happenstances that noone could predict or control. It is very different from the way Burmese see themselves vis-a-vis India. Not the aam polity, but the people who matter. I could nt see a single shred of such a statement from Aung San's utterances from whatever little I could pick on the net.

One should nt also forget the movement Jigme Shingye (and now Namgyal) Wangchuk are doing to usher in democrazy in Bhutan. Both Bhutan and Nepal are similar if you discount their sizes (that is) and yet the course taken is very divergent. Both have been advised by the South Block on how to go, yet both have different results. On the one hand, you have all the propaganda machinery of Bhutan making it a GNH heaven, and Nepal looks like a basketcase. In fact, both are, if you look at it apolitically. But then perceptions are perceptions. Insecurities thrive on these.

Coming back, Nepal will try to become a clientele state and try to see if it can maximize its profits at almost zero cost to its security. It will talk to both India and china and will try to stay out. It will try to adopt a Red Cross like approach. 1990 type embargoes from India to not let the chinis use Nepali territory wont fly under the radar this time. Most will backfire especially because people are now more aware of their "rights" and "freedoms" even if these rights and freedoms are not god-given, but bestowed in kindred spirit and good neighborliness. 100 million freebies in the form of trade/overland rights wont buy us them into our side. If one reads what the SLankans write or the BDeshis write, the reality is clear. In terms of game theory, one player has all to lose cos they are sandwiched between two neighbors; for the other player, it is just a game, a silly game as the other player perceives. The payoff matrix is really skewed against one player and you know what route he is going to take. He is going to do everything to ensure his own security or rather, his own life the day after. In this case, India will be forced to backpedal not because we are weak, but because the other person is upping the ante and we stand to gain little by making this a life or death scenario. If you see it from this angle, 99% of Indian decisions, whether it is ceding Katchhathhevu or enclaves or IWT or trade concessions unilterally to pakis, to BDeshis, to Nepalis, etc. will make sense. We have nt even tried to collect our share of cash owed from the pakis in the 47 melee. Most Indian diplomats know nuff of game theory to give Avinash Dixit a run for his money. Just kidding...

More if I can think of something...

Added: May be you can draw them in by making propagandoos and forcing them to pick sides. You can do that, if you make it a religious war. Short of that, I cant think of why Nepal will play for India. The power of religion is hugely discounted. Esp in South Asia. Pick up any gallup poll and you will find BD the most religious with SL closely behind. Very similar figures for Nepal and Bhutan. Its a surprise that the religiously formed Paki state is not in the top 10. The case of India is one of religious dichotomy: personalized religiosity vis-a-vis a need to maintain an areligious intellectual life, esp in politics. I see the Tamil crisis in SL as a religious war, not as a linguistic or "ethnic" garbage. Both are of the same stock, there is no peace between Christian Tamils and Sinhalese either, it is in fact worse than before with the Pallars more militant than the Saiva Vellalars of old. Etc. The twain will never meet with BD because it is religious, not one of a big Goliath vs. a small insecure David. No amount of trade concessions can buy loyalty in a religious prism-atic viewpoint. With Nepal, the twain will again not meet even though it may appear to. Once you shatter glass, things dont come back, even if much of the situationists can pontificate on how this can happen. I dont think logic can be defied, Nepal is religious, and you have the cue to pull em into a religious war with china, if you can make it one.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by member_19686 »

Xtians up to their usual antics of stealing Hindu land:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15517207
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by RamaY »

BBC: Nepal parties agree final part of landmark peace deal
Nepal's main political parties have agreed the last part of a landmark peace deal after years of wrangling.

A spokesman for the prime minister said the deal revolves around the future of about 19,000 former Maoist fighters.

About a third of them will be integrated into the security forces. The remainder will receive a pay-off.

The Maoists ended a long-running insurgency five years ago. Peace moves had stalled over the future of former rebel fighters and a new constitution.

A statement detailing the agreement was issued soon after it was announced by the four major parties of Nepal - the Maoists, the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and the Madeshi People's Rights Forum (Democratic) party which represents people living in the southern plains.

It said that agreement had been reached "on issues relating the integration of former Maoist combatants into the security forces and providing support to victims of the conflict".

The statement said that 500,000 to 800,000 Nepali rupees ($6,300 to $10,190) would be given in compensation to those Maoists who do not join the security forces.

In addition:


- Weapons used by former Maoist fighter will be handed in to the state
- A peace and reconciliation commission will be formed within a month
- The Constituent Assembly's duration will be extended by six months
- Land captured or confiscated by the Maoists will be returned to original owners


Correspondents say that while the deal has cross-party support from politicians representing different areas of the country, not everyone has come out in support of it.

One influential Maoist leader, Mohan Baidya - the head of a hardline faction - has already expressed discontent.

The BBC's Jill McGivering says that the end of the civil war raised hopes in Nepal - but since then many became increasingly disillusioned with successive political stalemates and resignations.

Supporters of the deal hope that it will bring an end to one of the most difficult parts of the peace process - the future of weapons used by the Maoists during their insurgency and the future of the former insurgents themselves.

The Maoists gave up their decade-long armed revolt in 2006 and joined a peace process. Their decade-long insurgency left 15,000 people dead and caused massive damage to the economy.

They agreed to confine their fighters to UN-monitored camps and locked up their weapons, in addition to taking part in mainstream politics and contesting elections.

But there were strong disagreements among the main parties over the future of the former rebel fighters.

In 2009, Maoist leader Prachanda resigned as prime minister after his efforts to sack the country's army chief - who he accused of hampering his efforts to integrate former Maoist fighters in the army - were blocked by the president.

But the situation improved in September 2011 with the election of Maoist Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai.

Shortly after he was sworn in, most Maoist weapons were handed over to a multi-party committee tasked with overseeing the peace process.

Mr Bhattarai is the fifth in the five years since the peace process started. He has been described by some as the country's last hope.

Despite the breakthrough with the country main parties, correspondents say that many challenges still lie ahead.

One of the most pressing is the search to find consensus on drafting a new constitution, which is why another extension for the current Constituent Assembly has been agreed.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by RamaY »

[url=http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asi ... 86858.html Nepal Arrests Tibetan Protesters[/url]
Nepalese police detained more than 60 Tibetan refugees early Tuesday as they demonstrated in support of Buddhist monks who have set themselves on fire to protest Chinese rule in their homeland.

Police say the demonstrators were arrested after shouting anti-China slogans during a prayer service outside a monastery on the outskirts of the capital, Kathmandu. Nepalese authorities are increasingly cracking down on gatherings of exiled Tibetans.

On Monday, China's military chief, General Chen Bingde, said Beijing approves of Nepal's "firm stance on issues related to Tibet."

Chen made his comments in Beijing during a visit by his Nepalese counterpart, General Chhatraman Singh Gurung, who reaffirmed his promise to never allow "anti-Chinese activities" to take place on Nepalese soil.

More than 20,000 Tibetan exiles are living in Nepal, after a failed 1959 uprising against Chinese rule. Nepal has prohibited demonstrations by Tibetan exiles and cracked down on such gatherings in recent years as part of its “one-China” policy.

At least 10 Buddhist monks have set themselves on fire in southwest China in recent months to protest harsh Chinese rule of Tibet.
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Re: Nepal and Bhutan News and discussion

Post by Jarita »

Tweet by Subramanian Swamy

Swamy39 Subramanian Swamy
: Sonia helped sabotage Nepal through missinaries and Maoists. Must have got diamonds
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