shyamd wrote:Stan, simple question - Is Nepal on our side or not? Will it split if the moment comes on taking sides?
Nepal is not on our side. Nor should you expect it to. Nepal has been wedged between India and china and the reality has not changed for the last 300 years or so. Noone has been more self-conscious of this fact than Nepalis themselves.
Everyone in power knows the power of India, the power of Hinduism and Buddhism, the soft power of Bollywood, the power of Indian currency, the power of South Block, the power of what happens in India on how the Nepalese view themselves whether it is elections or Anna Hazare, the clamoring for democrazy based on the Indian model of some sorts, the somewhat reasonably successful (as perceived by them, not the ground reality) reservation policies in India, the apolitical army, the vanishing of privy privileges, the cutting down on zamindari system which pakistan or BD could not do, the power of jobs and cross-border marital/business alliances, the power of free movement to India as they please, and not the least, a huge Nepali-speaking polity in Darjeeling and the Siliguri corridor, Sikkim and Bhutan. Nepali is a Schedule 8 language under the Indian Constitution.
They also know the pain of overindulgence by SSB and the corruption at cross-border posts, cross-border violence and migration of criminals from one side to the other, blames of FICN deserved or otherwise, blames of letting the pakis in, a need to maintain a distance so that they dont get sikkim-ized, a victimist mindset wrt Kalapani, Susta, Mahakali to name a few, trade deficit and a growing trade deficit and the hopeless it brings in, the game of playing one against the other to get a better bargain and the attendant problems this game theoretic mechanism brings in, the pain of being branded "chinese" or "gurkha" in India, etc. And more.
If a border clash happens between India and china now, Nepal will try to play switzerland so that it wont get pummeled. Best case, it will allow some soft territory on both ends for soldiers of both sides to heal and run back to war. It tried to in the 1962 episode, but not without glaring from the GoI. The CIA and RAW were running the Mustang based Tibetan resistance movement before the CIA wound it down due to Nixonian and NPT compulsions. Between the end of the 62 war and 1975, these all happened: Sikkim acceded to the Indian Union, 1971 war caused a splinter to Pakistan, flights that stopped in Katunayake in SL led to massive takleef from the Indian establishment, the Buddha smiled, etc. There was a lot of internal churning in India too with Emergency about to be established, not to mention that Naxalbari was happening in West Bengal not far from Nepal, caste wars due to pre-Ranvir Sena types in Bihar, Chambal valley based dacoits running rife, etc. This is what late-King Birendra said in 1973:
“As heirs to one of the most ancient civilizations in Asia, our natural concern is to preserve our independence, a legacy handed down to us by history [...] we need peace for our security, we need peace for our independence, and we need peace for development. And if today, peace is an overriding concern for us, it is only because our people genuinely desire peace in our country, in our region and elsewhere in the world. It is with this earnest desire to institutionalize peace that I stand to make a proposition - a proposition that my country, Nepal, be declared a Zone of Peace. [...] As heirs to a country that has always lived in independence, we wish to see that our freedom and independence shall not be thwarted by the changing flux of time when understanding is replaced by misunderstanding, when conciliation is replaced by belligerency and war. (13).
To me, the one thing that stands out is the recognition that Nepal is a country on its own because of certain historical happenstances that noone could predict or control. It is very different from the way Burmese see themselves vis-a-vis India. Not the aam polity, but the people who matter. I could nt see a single shred of such a statement from Aung San's utterances from whatever little I could pick on the net.
One should nt also forget the movement Jigme Shingye (and now Namgyal) Wangchuk are doing to usher in democrazy in Bhutan. Both Bhutan and Nepal are similar if you discount their sizes (that is) and yet the course taken is very divergent. Both have been advised by the South Block on how to go, yet both have different results. On the one hand, you have all the propaganda machinery of Bhutan making it a GNH heaven, and Nepal looks like a basketcase. In fact, both are, if you look at it apolitically. But then perceptions are perceptions. Insecurities thrive on these.
Coming back, Nepal will try to become a clientele state and try to see if it can maximize its profits at almost zero cost to its security. It will talk to both India and china and will try to stay out. It will try to adopt a Red Cross like approach. 1990 type embargoes from India to not let the chinis use Nepali territory wont fly under the radar this time. Most will backfire especially because people are now more aware of their "rights" and "freedoms" even if these rights and freedoms are not god-given, but bestowed in kindred spirit and good neighborliness. 100 million freebies in the form of trade/overland rights wont buy us them into our side. If one reads what the SLankans write or the BDeshis write, the reality is clear. In terms of game theory, one player has all to lose cos they are sandwiched between two neighbors; for the other player, it is just a game, a silly game as the other player perceives. The payoff matrix is really skewed against one player and you know what route he is going to take. He is going to do everything to ensure his own security or rather, his own life the day after. In this case, India will be forced to backpedal not because we are weak, but because the other person is upping the ante and we stand to gain little by making this a life or death scenario. If you see it from this angle, 99% of Indian decisions, whether it is ceding Katchhathhevu or enclaves or IWT or trade concessions unilterally to pakis, to BDeshis, to Nepalis, etc. will make sense. We have nt even tried to collect our share of cash owed from the pakis in the 47 melee. Most Indian diplomats know nuff of game theory to give Avinash Dixit a run for his money. Just kidding...
More if I can think of something...
Added: May be you can draw them in by making propagandoos and forcing them to pick sides. You can do that, if you make it a religious war. Short of that, I cant think of why Nepal will play for India. The power of religion is hugely discounted. Esp in South Asia. Pick up any gallup poll and you will find BD the most religious with SL closely behind. Very similar figures for Nepal and Bhutan. Its a surprise that the religiously formed Paki state is not in the top 10. The case of India is one of religious dichotomy: personalized religiosity vis-a-vis a need to maintain an areligious intellectual life, esp in politics. I see the Tamil crisis in SL as a religious war, not as a linguistic or "ethnic" garbage. Both are of the same stock, there is no peace between Christian Tamils and Sinhalese either, it is in fact worse than before with the Pallars more militant than the Saiva Vellalars of old. Etc. The twain will never meet with BD because it is religious, not one of a big Goliath vs. a small insecure David. No amount of trade concessions can buy loyalty in a religious prism-atic viewpoint. With Nepal, the twain will again not meet even though it may appear to. Once you shatter glass, things dont come back, even if much of the situationists can pontificate on how this can happen. I dont think logic can be defied, Nepal is religious, and you have the cue to pull em into a religious war with china, if you can make it one.