China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Jan 2011 21:50

there is probably room for a smallish internal bay with 4-6 AAMs (the F22 carries 6). the closely spaced engines rule out a second tandem bay.
I am sure stealth weapons station could be developed for the innermost pylon of CFT area for smaller wvr weapons or maybe change the game and carry big aams there too.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 11 Jan 2011 22:08

Johnny_m - I'm sure that the J-20 development is what made GOI (generally takes decades to buy one aircraft) decide quickly on the PAK-FA. Please do not forget that by 2017 there will be LCAs, MMRCAs (125 - 200), upgraded M2k, upgraded Mig-29s, plus Jaguars and of course the MKI (270+). So India will not be defenceless at the time. These will be supported by 5 Phalcon AWACs and the indegenous AEWC plus Akash batteries for AD.

K_Rohit · Post by **K_Rohit** » 11 Jan 2011 23:16

rant... read at your own risk

While I am no dhoti-shivering SDRE and nor do I condone that kind of behaviour, the flight of the J-20 shows that there needs to be a balanced view applied to estimating the opponents strengths/weakness.

We heard the jingoes on the board go through the following transition..nah, its a CG picture, no way can they have something this quick, its a model, its not a flying prototype, its only a taxi run, no way it can fly that quickly, its blah, blah, blah.

Well China proved us wrong. And its a lesson for all of us.

Do not be a dhoti-shivering idiot, but also do not underestimate the opponents strengths. Present a balanced point of view. Better to overestimate the opponent and ensure we have built up capability without being "afraid". Its the smart thing to do. Its the lesson from history.

I understand the board is full of young jingoes, but I hope that we are able to analyse this brilliant achievement from China (and I have not seen a single Indian appreciate that) and have a rational, mature analysis of what it means for India.

Travel the world, understand the progress other nations have made and you quickly start developing deep respect for their capabilities.

Devendra · Post by **Devendra** » 11 Jan 2011 23:33

Please provide link to earlier thread

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 11 Jan 2011 23:34

shiv wrote:
Gaur wrote:No internal bay???
Well - I just brightened that image and could make out no bay. But the space is there and I am sure this is a tech demonstrator, not a prototype combat aircraft. If that is a Chinese engine - the Chinese are flying new airframe with new engine - in a first that has not been done for some decades AFAIK. No rule that it should not be done - but it is risky because somewhere down the line if one fails (airframe or engine) - both may be lost. And no one may know which one was at fault by sifting through the telemetry data and debris.

Can you make out the line where ailerons connect to the wings? I can't make that out either.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 11 Jan 2011 23:52

Vivek K wrote:Johnny_m - I'm sure that the J-20 development is what made GOI (generally takes decades to buy one aircraft) decide quickly on the PAK-FA. Please do not forget that by 2017 there will be LCAs, MMRCAs (125 - 200), upgraded M2k, upgraded Mig-29s, plus Jaguars and of course the MKI (270+). So India will not be defenceless at the time. These will be supported by 5 Phalcon AWACs and the indegenous AEWC plus Akash batteries for AD.

125-200 MRCA? Good lord man, they are not even close to a downselect yet. Expect only 20 odd nos by 2017 optimistically (if they sign by 2012). Has the M2k deal been signed off on yet - there is another impasse iirc? IAF should have 40-60 LCA, 270 MKI, 60 Fulcrums SMTs, and about 20 MMRCA, 100 Bisons, and possibly 200 Jag+Floggers. About 450 BVR capable multirole fighters, 200 pure strike a/c if all goes as planned

I am hoping that this J20 causes a LOT of dhoti shivering - and the pace of procurement is ramped up considerably. My guess is that if they find the J20 maturing quickly (which is quite likely since the chinese don't show anything unless they are sure it is somewhat mature ala J10), the IAF will land up buying a few PAKFAs (not FGFAs) ad hoc ala T90s, and I wouldn't blame them. Perhaps the MKI MLU will start earlier as well.

Further, the legacy birds (teens, fulcrum) and even Gripen may as well kiss the MRCA goodbye. Rafale vs. Typhoon - a treat for BR jingoes should be on offer.

CM.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 12 Jan 2011 00:08

Regarding the bomb bays, this is a clearer pic. I think I can make out a faint whit line running down the middle of the forward fuselage, and at least two white lines at the back fuselage.

http://i.imgur.com/aUdz5.jpg

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 12 Jan 2011 00:12

Cain Marko wrote: 125-200 MRCA? Good lord man, they are not even close to a downselect yet. Expect only 20 odd nos by 2017 optimistically (if they sign by 2012).

Point taken CM. However, how many of the J-20 would be flying by then? By 2017 the 270 MKIs would be in service though! And the FGFA would also be nearing IOC by then(?).

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 12 Jan 2011 00:24

Also, look at this pic:

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/5609/dnf9h.jpg

You can see a faint white line forward of the access panel/gear bay, I think they're side missile bays.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jan 2011 01:19

Cain Marko wrote: I am hoping that this J20 causes a LOT of dhoti shivering - and the pace of procurement is ramped up considerably. My guess is that if they find the J20 maturing quickly (which is quite likely since the chinese don't show anything unless they are sure it is somewhat mature ala J10), the IAF will land up buying a few PAKFAs (not FGFAs) ad hoc ala T90s, and I wouldn't blame them. Perhaps the MKI MLU will start earlier as well.

The sad part is that people were sitting on their bottoms during demand-rules period and will now pay dearly for their laziness as the suppliers demand inflated prices to accommodate the demand schedules.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jan 2011 01:23

DavidD wrote:Regarding the bomb bays, this is a clearer pic. I think I can make out a faint whit line running down the middle of the forward fuselage, and at least two white lines at the back fuselage.

http://i.imgur.com/aUdz5.jpg

In this pic, where will they put fuel tanks and where is the space for armaments?

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 12 Jan 2011 02:03

China's new fighter sends sonic boom through region

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 Jan 2011 02:24

Finally, one may feel a little ease that PAK-FA will not be chinese interest since they have their own fighter. Perhaps a saturn engine is the only one. They have long way to go, in the sense, AESA radar, passive sensors, and so many 5th gen aspects, just the shaping alone doesnt get there.

BTW, if pakis acquire about 100 odd J20s by 2020, we should be good with FGFA is what I read from other poster who wanted us to react to this. Rather react, I would say proactively, ddm shud support local programs and not condemn it.

like it or not, ddm will "REACT".. and the more once pakis start dancing.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2011 03:04

China Is Said to Test Stealth Fighter as Gates Visits

The article really does not have too much in it, EXCEPT:

BEIJING — China’s military conducted a test flight of a new stealth fighter jet on Tuesday, overshadowing a high-profile visit by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates aimed at improving defense ties — and apparently catching China’s civilian leadership off guard.

Staging the test flight of the long-secret J-20 while Mr. Gates was in Beijing amounted to an unusually bold show of force by China. But the demonstration also raised questions about the degree of civilian control of the Chinese military, as China’s president, Hu Jintao, and other civilian leaders appeared to have no knowledge that the test had been conducted only hours before they received Mr. Gates for a formal meeting at the Great Hall of the People.

A senior American defense official said that Mr. Gates had asked Mr. Hu about the test in the meeting and that it became evident to the Americans that the Chinese president and his top advisors were not prepared to answer him. Photos of the flight of the radar-evading J-20 had been prominently posted on unofficial Chinese military Web sites a few hours before the meeting.

“It was clear the civilian leadership was uninformed,” the official said.

I have always felt that there are two Chinas, but, this bad? Wow.

(Please read the entire article, before commenting.)

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 Jan 2011 03:14

What else they are stealing and not telling?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Jan 2011 03:23

From the above article...

Such military high-fives must be measured against the long road the J-20 almost certainly must travel. Consider that the F-22 Raptor, the Air Force’s current stealth fighter, was conceived in 1981, took its first test flight in 1990 — and did not enter operational service until 2004, 14 years later.

It shows that PLA started the works a while ago.

Also shows that the mountainous work done by our own ADA and HAL to get IOC for LCA.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 05:29

K_Rohit wrote:
Travel the world, understand the progress other nations have made and you quickly start developing deep respect for their capabilities.

In other words

Doosron ki jai se pehle
khud ko jai karein

Unfortunately this "respect for others" advice is carried so far in India that people lose respect for Indians in the effort to respect others.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 12 Jan 2011 05:37

China's stealth fighter makes its maiden test flight
TOI

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 06:20

I think the mistake that is made about Chinese capabilities by many people who use the lay media as a source of information (such as us) is that we are colored by western opinions. We cheerfully quote Carlo Copp or Bill Sweetman and other "experts" whose views may have little relevance to India. And those people are always talking from the viewpoint of their own nations and we have no business taking their views as seriously relevant for us.

China being "a little faster than expected" or "several decades behind" is a western viewpoint.

I don't think anyone who seriously follows Indian science and tech has any illusions about China - although a bit of fun at China expense is always necessary for an internet forum. Unfortunately - while following western media we do tend to dhoti shiver when the western commentator dhoti-shivers (or soot-boot-shivers) and we tend to go "Yay" when gora aadmi says "OK no problem". Gora aadmi often makes bullshit assessments about others.

China has built a black painted futuristic looking aircraft and flown it once. That puts China ahead of every country on earth that has never designed and flown any aircraft and indicates an active design bureau and science establishment where people are given the freedom to work and protected from criticism the way the LCA team was protected from external and home grown contempt. If the system works it will produce some results.

But in high tech the race is even longer. My ballpark estimate of the number of flying airliners in the world today may be 20 or 30,000. 95% of the engines are sourced from a handful of western companies. The reliability and efficiency of those engines is noteworthy with some models having notched up tens of millions of hours of failure free flight. This is not an easy record for anyone to match. But one must start somewhere. The problem with starting late is that you will be behind for years. If you create a reliable design X - it will take you some years to prove it, and some more years after that to modify it to become lighter and more fuel efficient. Incremental improvements like this have been done on western engines for decades now resulting in a situation where the newest engines from the west are lighter and more fuel efficient than they used to be. That means aircraft can fly further with less fuel and higher payloads. This means that a "stealth aircraft" from the west with such an efficient engine will have those advantages and western observers will always look at Chinese designs (or future Indian designs) and say "nyahaha - they are 20 years behind" and the Ajai Shuklas of this world will always curse fellow Indians for being 20 years behind. It is only ignorance that causes this.

You can be sure that a Chinese engine may not have all these refinements - but it will do the job. It is easy to forget that the USSR caused soot-boot shivering in the west by using stainless steel (MiG 25) and engines that needed replacements after 100 hours of use. Even on this forum we have mocked our own Russian derived aircraft for having an airframe life of 1000 hours while equivalent Western aircraft are touted to have 3000 hours. This is basically Macaulay speaking. We have a lot of that.

Ultimately progress is about respecting what your own people do. Technology is never easy and there are always choices and compromises to be made. if country X takes one road or makes a particular choice it does not mean that your own people are morons for not taking that road or making that choice. By all means respect the Chinese for their achievements, and of course do not use western derived examples to show that they are useless. But at the same time there is absolutely no need to beat one's breasts and imagine that nothing is happening in India. We know where we need to go and will take our own route to get there using what we have.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 12 Jan 2011 06:55

DavidD wrote:Regarding the bomb bays, this is a clearer pic. I think I can make out a faint whit line running down the middle of the forward fuselage, and at least two white lines at the back fuselage.

http://i.imgur.com/aUdz5.jpg

This is a CG image. I mean, original but touched for pic enhancement. Check the Serial No.. Since it is touched it cannot be taken as authentic to form any opinion. If you watch the J-20 surface (top/dorsal surface) you can clearly make out markings as one can in the Raptor.

If that is so, same case for the weapon bay. If it is there we can see it.

In the pic that came with J-10 and service truck, one can see various panels at the dorsal side but that was lit with sunlight.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 12 Jan 2011 06:59

agree with you shiv nice post

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 12 Jan 2011 07:00

This J-20 plane is longer than PAK-FA.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 07:09

Well here are a few of photos of the F-22.

There is no mistaking some details
http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/4634883.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... burner.jpg
http://www.aviationexplorer.com/Commerc ... flight.jpg

Here is the underside of the F-117
http://cdn-www.airliners.net/aviation-p ... 657651.jpg
http://www.probertencyclopaedia.com/j/F-117A.jpg

The B-2
http://rmparchive.com/images/hosting/60 ... Border.jpg

The B-1
http://sites.google.com/site/jkhcaircra ... 0WINGS.jpg

http://sites.google.com/site/jkhcaircra ... -%20HD.jpg

I can see nothing remotely resembling doors on the currently released photos of the J-20

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 07:58

DavidD wrote:Regarding the bomb bays, this is a clearer pic. I think I can make out a faint whit line running down the middle of the forward fuselage, and at least two white lines at the back fuselage.

http://i.imgur.com/aUdz5.jpg

Any particular reason why this image is a mirror image of an original? With such an obvious feature it is difficult to tell that this image has not been manipulated in some way.

After much image manipulation and image enhancement I can see some faint lines that could possibly represent something. I don't think any working doors have been put in for this prototype although the space for them certainly exists. This is not a criticism - I think it is perfectly sensible not to add complexity to a prototype.

Were the wheels retracted for the first flight?

wrdos · Post by **wrdos** » 12 Jan 2011 08:29

Excellent, shiv!

I think your opinions can also apply to the Chinese case. Both China and India are influenced by the prejudices from western medias.

I hope China and India can work together to reshaped the world order in the future. Of course the two countries would compete with each other, more in a way like Coca Cola with Pepsi Cola, a win-win relationship.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 08:37

wrdos wrote: I hope China and India can work together to reshaped the world order in the future. Of course the two countries would compete with each other, more in a way like Coca Cola with Pepsi Cola, a win-win relationship.

China and India will shape the future world whether anyone likes it or not. Only it will be better for both countries to work together and better for others if we don't.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 12 Jan 2011 08:58

shiv wrote:
DavidD wrote:Regarding the bomb bays, this is a clearer pic. I think I can make out a faint whit line running down the middle of the forward fuselage, and at least two white lines at the back fuselage.

http://i.imgur.com/aUdz5.jpg
Any particular reason why this image is a mirror image of an original? With such an obvious feature it is difficult to tell that this image has not been manipulated in some way.

After much image manipulation and image enhancement I can see some faint lines that could possibly represent something. I don't think any working doors have been put in for this prototype although the space for them certainly exists. This is not a criticism - I think it is perfectly sensible not to add complexity to a prototype.

Were the wheels retracted for the first flight?

I think it's a mirror so they can place the top81 logo on the top right as they like to put words and stuff on the right side. I don't think the photo is retouched to put a line there. I doubt the bomb bay is functional either, but I think they at least have the space reserved and IMO it's very possible that the bomb bay door can open. I don't think that'd be too hard to do, though obviously firing missiles from it is still a long time away.

The wheels weren't retracted, I don't think even the gear doors closed.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 09:07

DavidD wrote: I don't think the photo is retouched to put a line there.

True - but if a line was there evidence of retouching would be used as proof of photoshopping - that's all.

A minor issue of importance only on internet forums. Either the lines are there or they are not. It hardly matters if they are not - if I was a designer I would cover up the weapons bay and not worry about it because it is a complex system by itself. The plane must fly first. Weapons dispensing comes next. But internet jingos may have their day's mood made or spoiled by such details. In any case - with the landing gear doors being serrated at the front and back I was looking for serrated edges of weapons bay doors at the front or back of those faint lines.

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 Jan 2011 09:19

J-20 Completes First Flight (with video)

It looks like the MiG-1.44 with an F-22 front.

MiG-1.44

Patrick Cusack · Post by **Patrick Cusack** » 12 Jan 2011 09:41

If China can prove to be trust worthy then working together makes sense - with all the daggers that they out (Pak, Burma, Sri Lanka, Nepal, ULFA,...) Indians are fighting multiple fronts to survive.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Jan 2011 10:35

What is the envisaged role for J-20? Is it a strike fighter? Air Superiority fighter? Multi-role/Swing-role fighter?

Which geographical areas it will be used most? South China Sea? Tibet? What adversaries can it go against? What message was being sent to Gates? That the US "Shenanigans" regarding Taiwan can not be done any more? Is it even country specific?

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 Jan 2011 10:42

K_Rohit wrote:...I understand the board is full of young jingoes, but I hope that we are able to analyse this brilliant achievement from China (and I have not seen a single Indian appreciate that) and have a rational, mature analysis of what it means for India...

It will be analyzed, sanely or insanely. However there is something called trust deficit which Chineese Communist Party needs to overcome. Till that time, any appreciation will be done only grudgingly. Not that that should be the way, the current effort is laudable and it did send message where it was meant to sent., but expecting all around appreciation from an mango-jingo will be too much to ask.

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 12 Jan 2011 11:56

One thing is pretty sure that J20 introduction will adversely effect all the defence programs in USA and India ,
IMHO , US will have to make more Raptors, Russians will extract more money from us. Other programs will get lesser priority.

Dharma · Post by **Dharma** » 12 Jan 2011 12:05

Would you buy a chinese car which is claimed to be as equivalent to ferrari just because it is made to look like one?..For all we know the entire aircraft may have nothing more than a airframe and two engine painted in black which can only fly unreliably..Chinese sun tzu tactics of imitating superiority to gain perceived leverage is well known but they seemed to have forgotten that the other side too has access to these same strategies..

If chinese are faking this,this would ensure that India and other countries like russia would pull their socks to devise even more sophisticated technology that would blow this PR scam in the dust..including their dong fengs like ding dongs.

We need to trust our proven expertise and technology which resulted in project such as Brahmos and finetune our technolgy to outsmart their technology by large margin.most importantly we must not become a victim to this propanganda machine..that is what this fake bully wants to achieve...

manum · Post by **manum** » 12 Jan 2011 12:21

they have shown what they are capable of...and how fast they can pull things up...
so lets start fire fighting, than still telling the smoke is not coming from fire...stop being skeptical anymore, sooner than later, they'll achieve what they are supposed to achieve...

We must put our AMCA on fast track...

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 12 Jan 2011 12:58

wrdos wrote: I hope China and India can work together to reshaped the world order in the future. Of course the two countries would compete with each other, more in a way like Coca Cola with Pepsi Cola, a win-win relationship.

India and China working together to reshape the world order ??

Boss what are you currently inhaling ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Jan 2011 14:57

manum wrote:they have shown what they are capable of...and how fast they can pull things up...
so lets start fire fighting, than still telling the smoke is not coming from fire...stop being skeptical anymore, sooner than later, they'll achieve what they are supposed to achieve...

Agreed

manum wrote: We must put our AMCA on fast track...

Agreed

But what is the connection between the two statements?

amit · Post by **amit** » 12 Jan 2011 15:07

Dharma wrote:Would you buy a chinese car which is claimed to be as equivalent to ferrari just because it is made to look like one?..

Dunno about Ferrari but how about a good ole Rolls Royce

I can tell you the front part of this car looks every bit as good (can substitute menacing) as the asli maal.

jimmy_moh · Post by **jimmy_moh** » 12 Jan 2011 15:09

Dharma wrote:Would you buy a chinese car which is claimed to be as equivalent to ferrari just because it is made to look like one?..For all we know the entire aircraft may have nothing more than a airframe and two engine painted in black which can only fly unreliably..Chinese sun tzu tactics of imitating superiority to gain perceived leverage is well known but they seemed to have forgotten that the other side too has access to these same strategies..

..

Good observation......

saje · Post by **saje** » 12 Jan 2011 16:28

(source-Wikipedia)Main article: Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II procurement
While the United States is the primary customer and financial backer, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, Turkey, Australia, Norway and Denmark have agreed to contribute US$4.375 billion toward the development costs of the program.

(source-yahoo news) Fri Dec 24, 3:08 pm ET
ISTANBUL (AFP) – Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey agreed Friday to hold joint military drills next year as part of Ankara's bridge-building efforts between troubled neighbours Kabul and Islamabad.

Just adding a thought towards the rants of "Pakistan can't afford J-20s" "J-20 tech is years behind the F-22" -- What's to stop the TSP bhikaris from begging, borrowing or stealing F-35 tech from Turkey to be passed onto China in return for a generous gift of a couple of squadrons of J-20s?!