Baldev wrote:Vishnu wrote:Hi folks ... All sorts of rumors now doing the rounds presently as follows ...
1. The overwhelming one being that the IAF wants a twin engine jet ...
2. There is bound to be a split order if the order size goes up to 250 odd jets for cost reasons ... 250 twins are too expensive whichever way one measures costs ...
Vishnu
well minister says that only aircraft merits will be considered and on the other hand bidder which meets requirements with lowest price will win,these are two contradictory things.
Lots of contradictions here ... but what the Minister said was in response to the question I asked him at the press conference at Aeroindia ...
The question was whether there would be any political decision which would decide the MMRCA buy to which he said .. quite categorically ... that there would be no political influence. I see this as meaning that India will not accept any American pressure or Russian pressure to push a purchase of their jet and that the Air Force would get the plane it wants as per the acquisition process.
What I am suggesting ... and I repeat suggesting .. is that there MAY never be a scenario where the cheapest fighters will be considered ... because they have been deemed to have failed the technical evaluation ... The question which may be asked is whether that process of technical downselect (which we are now told HAS happened) is fair since ALL the competitors have reasons to believe that their jet meets the RFP requirements.
What this means is that there is a solid window that exists for losing bidders to complain ...
Just to take this hypothesis further ... if the single engine jets have been ruled out ... SAAB and LockMart can argue that its unfair that Rafale and Eurofighter have gone through since none of them had a viable AESA during the trial process ...
Can the MoD ... run by bureaucrats ... be in a position to assess the viability of complaints by losing bidders who question the technical evaluation process ? I doubt they can ... so, assuming they have a valid complaint ... who is the competent authority to judge the merits of the complaint ? A retired panel of pilots ? BRfites ?
This is crystal ball gazing ... but here is what I can see happening ...
* Eurofighter wins ... The MoD moves quickly to close the deal under intense pressure from the IAF worried about its depleted squadron strength.
* The others complain ... slamming the Air Force for disqualifying them on technical grounds ...
* The deal is delayed ...
Scenario 2:
* Eurofighter or Rafale win.
* The MoD ignores pressure and complaints and inducts the aircraft.
* This is done at the cost of serious questions on the fairness of the IAF's evaulation process ...
Scenario 3:
* Eurofighter or Rafale win ..
* The MoD agrees to increase the deal size to 250 jets
* One of the single engine bidders gets lucky ... and happy ... since they get orders since its too expensive to buy 250 twin engine birds ...
* The extent of the protests are muted.
Which brings me to the central point ... and this is simplistic ... the acquisition process in the MMRCA deal remains fundamentally flawed ... and susceptible to challenges ...
Cheers
Vishnu