Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): Feb. 12, 2011

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 19 Feb 2011 02:10

Ananya wrote:if this is true then would BO do another Carter.. This guy is in lahore few miles away from amritsar

saar, their consulate is even closer, like a few feet away. Why bring in the Holy City of Amritsar into this shady affair over which we dont give a damn?

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 19 Feb 2011 02:20

well you need a safe exit plan and an Airport/airbase and an action on TSP affects us in some way or the other but i am confident our govt wuld not allow this because we would loose out Dharma and Morality and god would not allow us in heaven !!! we think of all this before we make any strategic decession.

Consulate would not be a safe aoption as would be over run by abduls.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 19 Feb 2011 02:25

shravan wrote:Probe finds connection between Davis, drone attacks

Well the Pakjab Govt. is intent on making it nigh to impossible to set him free. But sooner or later, they will have to. And if they do, Paki leaders would themselves become target of the TTP, who have been on the receiving end of the drone attacks.

Somehow I think, the Paki leaders are stupid as asses.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 19 Feb 2011 02:27

RajeshA:

Your land for terror approach is wonderful breath of fresh air. India needs to change the game.

A long time ago I had argued that there is no point in thinking of punishing TSP as a whole, but the focus should be punishing the RAPE/TSPA combo. I had thought about covert punishment to specific individuals; had a healthy discussion with sunil s.. In retrospect, I realized that the Indian Elite is too much worried about a similar retaliation by ISI, so that proposal was a non-starter.

The TSP Elite has a lot of experience in gaming these situation and understanding the strengths and weakness of the counter-party.

Ananya · Post by **Ananya** » 19 Feb 2011 02:29

well I would not say so, they apper to be asses and behave like one and underneath this they are cunning . They know what they want and always at the end, either by hook or crook always get away with this and they also know unkil just too well.

they should never been taaken lightly especeally Sharif brothers.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 19 Feb 2011 02:43

ABC News:

Second American Involved in Lahore Shooting Slips Back to U.S. -- Driver Who Allegedly Killed a Man Racing to Raymond Davis' Aid And His Passenger No Longer In Pakistan, U.S. Official Says

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 19 Feb 2011 03:23

Secretary Clinton delivered a major address on AfPak at the Asia Society today.

The transcript is here (video will be posted there shortly as well). No mention of the RDavis affair, or the KKK (kancer of Kayani klan) which is the TSP army.

Perhaps the GUBO is happening out of sight, but this speech was all honey and biscuit towards AfPak.

http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/02/156815.htm

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 19 Feb 2011 04:39

shravan wrote:Probe finds connection between Davis, drone attacks

This is BS. The "gps chip" on my cell phone can also be used for other things (like locating nearby pakistans for future emergency purposes).

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/raymond-d ... d=12949285

And what is this Pakis being outraged about "Raymond Davis investigating Pakistan's sensitive areas"

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 05:14

CRamS wrote: As for us NRIs, who have respect for both India & US,

Respect for India and US. Thank you for pointing out the dual nature of the involvement. That is exactly what I have been saying. Why get angry when I point that out? The admission has come from you. There will inevitably be issues where your respect for your US will trump your respect for India. Like demanding that the Indian PM answers the American ambassador. No need to go into denial mode.

Just like you have respect for both India and US there are Indians who have respect for both India and China or respect for both India and Pakistan, India and Malaysia, India and Sri Lanka, India and Saudi Arabia. There is no more wrong with these people than there is with you. Do you feel that you require some special status or special say in Indian issues that a respecter of India and Pakistan should not get?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 19 Feb 2011 05:18

^^^ But Anjunji,... what about camera attached to your feet?

Raw video of RD's confession (where he confesses that he is a jasoos aka consultant) recorded by feet-camera and expert analysis is worth watching as long as you don't have any spill-able liquid in the proximity.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 05:24

Ananya wrote:if this is true then would BO do another Carter.. This guy is in lahore few miles away from amritsar

Barack Obama could do a Bush. Bush attacked Iraq when the problem was in Pakistan. Obama could attack India. Take out HAL, ISRO and a few IITs with cruise missiles and force MMS to say yes to handing over Kashmir. It should work given the large number of people who have interesting beliefs about who has strength and who is weak.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 05:44

I believe I am now in a position to answer a question that was directed at me earlier.

CRamS wrote:And for people like Shiv, may I ask what stops the good PM in Delhi from questioning this nonsense? Why is TSP required to fight terrorists only on the western border? What is so sacrosanct abot fighting the terrorists that US wants, but nothing about the terrorists that Gates claims will provoke a war.

My PM respects India and the US, just like you do. He keeps in mind the interests of some people in America and some people in India.

CRamS wrote: Is it not the duty of the India PM to articulate this? If the there is casue for such scare mongering, then the cause must be dealt with.

No. When there is a conflict between Indian and US interests, it is OK for US interests to take precedence.

CRamS wrote: Why can't US policy, and India insist on the same, that there can be double standards on terorrism? Pakistan needs to fight all terrorists, and not just those that US deems important.

When the US and India must cooperate to have one policy that policy may go against people who want to keep Pakistani interests in mind. Since India is antagonistic to Pakistan and the US is friendly, the US policy takes precedence.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 19 Feb 2011 05:45

VikramS wrote:RajeshA:

Your land for terror approach is wonderful breath of fresh air. India needs to change the game.

A long time ago I had argued that there is no point in thinking of punishing TSP as a whole, but the focus should be punishing the RAPE/TSPA combo. I had thought about covert punishment to specific individuals; had a healthy discussion with sunil s.. In retrospect, I realized that the Indian Elite is too much worried about a similar retaliation by ISI, so that proposal was a non-starter.

The TSP Elite has a lot of experience in gaming these situation and understanding the strengths and weakness of the counter-party.

I beleive some sort of rudimentary groups dedicated for such stuff has been initiated by India. Later it was put in cold storage at the insistence of US. All this during the past decade.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 19 Feb 2011 05:54

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 19 Feb 2011 05:55

VikramS wrote:RajeshA:

Your land for terror approach is wonderful breath of fresh air. India needs to change the game.

A long time ago I had argued that there is no point in thinking of punishing TSP as a whole, but the focus should be punishing the RAPE/TSPA combo. I had thought about covert punishment to specific individuals; had a healthy discussion with sunil s.. In retrospect, I realized that the Indian Elite is too much worried about a similar retaliation by ISI, so that proposal was a non-starter.

The TSP Elite has a lot of experience in gaming these situation and understanding the strengths and weakness of the counter-party.

I was thinking more on lines of Atlantique.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantique_Incident

Just shoot down either a plane or TSPN ship for every major terror incident. No need for boots on the ground yet.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 19 Feb 2011 07:14

x-post
India must protest any foreign funding of dams in POK.
http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-news ... -add-960MW
Tarbela extension to add 960MW

ISLAMABAD (APP) - The extension plan of Tarbela Dam would add 960 MW electricity to the national grid system in next four years.Official sources told APP that an amount of US $ 700 million would be spent on the project funded by the World Bank.They said," engineering consultants have reached Pakistan for the fourth Tarbela extension project which will be completed in four years". After the completion of the project, 960 MW additional electricity would be generated from the reservoir as its existing power generation capacity is 3,400 MW. The sources said that the development work was underway on 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum project which would be completed in seven years.They said that a 10 kilometre tunnel had been constructed at the project site. The United States government had signed two agreements with Pakistan to provide $66 million for the completion of Gomal Zam and Satpara Dam projects, they added.The sources said these dams would provide over 35 megawatts power to nearly 55,000 households in South Waziristan and Skardu and would help meet the country's energy needs.
They said that out of total amount, the United States would provide $40 million to help complete the Gomal Zam multipurpose dam in South Waziristan in FATA. The project would provide 17.4 megawatts of electricity to 25,000 households, adding that the Gomal Zam dam would have the capacity to store enough water to irrigate 191,000 acres of farmland. They said the US government would also provide $26 million to complete the Satpara multipurpose dam project, located in Skardu.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 07:57

A thought just occurred to me.

The Parliament attack in 2002 sort of set the stage and created a model that showed that a hot war involving the Indian military could be triggered by a terrorist attack in India.

The Mumbai massacre of 2008 clearly had official backing of the Pakis army/ISI and was said to eb an attempt to provoke war - or at least to provoke a situation in which Pakistani army troops do not have to be deployed in the West and can come and sit in the east citing an India excuse. In this scenario - there is a tacit acceptance of the following premises:

For the Pakistan establishment and military it is better and safer to provoke war with India. Nobody claims that Pakistan will win such a war, but the premise is that India cannot pursue the war and win because of Pakistani nuclear weapons and international pressure. Pakistani establishment spokespersons have clearly stated that any India Pakistan war will be short lived and interrupted by international pressure. It is assumed that India would be rational and not pursue war to the extent that nuclear war would occur.

One of the statements that has been associated with Pakistani military action near the Afghan border is that it is an "American war" and that only America is interested in fighting that war and that the Pakistani army, led by some traitors (like Musharraf) have got the Pakistani army involved in fighting America's war that is unpopular in Pakistan. Naturally, doing what is unpopular is clearly worse than doing what is popular in Pakistan - i.e fighting India. Therefore the choice of fighting India is a good choice.

Clearly war with India is not seen as something that will destroy Pakistan. Some Pakistanis are confident that the war will be limited and that it is a gamble worth taking. There is lack of clarity in the Pakistani viewpoint here. While Pakistanis flaunt their nuclear deterrent, there does not seem to be a great wish to use the nuclear bombs right away at the beginning of the war.

Why do I say this? ( I accept I could be wrong, but here is my reading on this).

1) The Pakistani establishment is looking to survive conflict. They see the conflict in the West as dangerous to their survival. They are more confident of surviving a conflict in the east because they do not seriously expect it to go nuclear and state that the war would end in weeks.

2) Kaiser Tufail's account sates that India air action was noticeably lower when Pakistani F-16s were in the air. But Pakistan had to wind down the use of F-16s as the spares kept for war reserves were beginning to get consumed. This can only mean that Pakistan was preserving its F-16s in 1999 for war with India. The moot point is whether they were all being kept for a nuclear role. If F-16s were flying CAPs in 1999 when Pakistan was running out of spares it means two things. First the F-16s were being used for a very conventional air defence role and not being reserved for nuclear war only. The second point is that the F-16 were still ready for war with India in 1999 at a time what Pakistan had allegedly been under military sanctions for years. But I digress.

The Americans, for their part are telling Pakistanis that the war at the Afghan border poses as much of a risk to Pakistan - or perhaps a greater risk than India. The Americans are urging Pakistanis to fight the war at the Durand line because it is in their (Pakistani) interest and that it is not an American war.

So is the war at the Durand line a purely American war? Or is it dangerous to Pakistan?

There is no doubt that it is an American war. To that extent the Pakistanis are correct. But are the Americans right in saying that Pakistan has a stake in that war? What does Pakistan gain or lose by not fighting that war? What does Pakistan gain or lose if they fight the war?

By fighting the war in the West the Pakistan army are being forced to fight against Islamic soldiers - and the so called Taliban, Many (or most) also happen to have been Pakistani nationals and the area is indisputably Pashtun). So Pakistan is fighting a war in an area that used to provide the Pakistan army with the second largest number of soldiers, Pashtun soldiers next only to Pakjab in numbers. This is bad for the morale and integrity of the Pakistani army and they are naturally reluctant to fight the war. Fighting India unites the Pakistani "nation". Pakistanis are not being fought and Muslims are not being fought (never mind the kafir Muslims of India). India is the "ideal enemy" for Pakistan.

What can happen if Pakistan does not fight near the Durand line? As long as the US sits in Afghanistan, the Durand line regions is going to get occupied by battle hardened Pashtuns from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan will not have control on them. Pakistan hopes that the US will get out. The US wants Pakistan to retake control of those areas and stop anti-US activities from occurring. Somehow, using the clout only the US has, it has managed to make the Pakistani army fight a war that the latter do not want to fight. It has taken effort, much money and plenty of bribes.

And now the US is still worried that the Pakistani army will wriggle free. They feel it could wriggle free by means of a horrendous terrorist attack on India that Pakistan can use to move its troops away to the east, whether or not India responds to that attack. Of course things get more complicated for the US and Pakistan if India responds, but the US loses even if India does not respond. Pakistan will still go right ahead and move out 100,000 troops to the Indian border. That is what Gates is worrying about.

But why does he say it in public?

Here is my take.

Who in Pakistan would want to attack and provoke India?

1) The Pakistan army/ISI/Establishment and its JuD/LeT allies along with Hamid Gul and his ilk
2) Would the Taliban (bad Taliban) who are fighting the Pakistani army want to provoke India? What's in it for them? One could argue that if the bad Taliban attacked India the pressure they face from the Pakistan army would reduce as Paki troops move off to the east.

In my view it is only group 1 that has the biggest motive and ability to carry out an attack on India. And they are under intense US pressure and they are vulnerable to US pressure as well.

The "bad Taliban" do not have as strong a motive and do not have the organization to do that. In fact I believe the bad Taliban could do with Indian help for a free Pakthunistan.

I do not believe that the Paki army/establishment will carry out a terror attack in India now - when the US has more or less stated that any future terror attack in India is already being blamed on Pakistan before it occurs. That means the Paki army will continue to fight America's war for the time being. In exchange the US will keep the Duand line intact. Pakhtunistan will not be formed and the "old world order" with "nation states" like Pakistan and Afghanistan will be "respected" and intact.

In the long term that is not good for India and not good for Pashtun. IMO

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 19 Feb 2011 08:20

Pakistan is a peculiar place. The reason is that they have limited the ways in which they can suffer the consequences of their actions. Let me explain:

India is afraid to go to war. Why? because Bangalore might get bombed by a few Ding-dongs. What is wrong with that? The stock market might crash. Engineers working in software companies there might die. We have to protect their lives. Some of our soldiers will die. Leaving young wives and children behind. These tug at the heart of the public and the policy makers and we are paralyzed. Most discussions I see here are limited to What Pakis might do rather than addressing this basic handicap (I dont mean handicap in a negative sense).

Pakis on the other hand have no such compunctions. They want Jihadi canon fodder to fight India. They will gladly set up a few more madrassas, get poor kids educated there, make them into Jihadi yahoos and send them over. Many will get Pest-e-shaheeded at the border. Pakis dont give an F. They want to pretend to the US that they fight the taliban. So they will flatten a few villages, produce 1.5 internal refugees who live in squalid tents with no water, food or sanitation. Pakistani rulers dont give an F, their public doesnt give an F. Jernails order soldiers to "fight the extremists" and the ISI arms these very same extremists who blow up in mess halls killing those soldiers. The Jernails dont give an F. Amreeka will cut off Aid to Pakistan and sink their economy, Nobody in Pakistan is unduly worried because none of the ruling classes give an F. Zardari will retire to his chateu in france, Blahwall is happy in London, Nawaz will go to his father-in-law's place in Saudi Barbaria and Ashphuck will build a mansion inside fortified defence enclave. The rest of the people will rot outside.

This is precisely what is happening between NoKo and SoKo. And this is precisely the reason why Pakistan plays brinksmanship so well. It is not that they are good at doing that, it is just that they dont care about the consequences even if they fail.

This my friends is the biggest handicap India has and the biggest reason why Indian worldview is idiotic. The discussion ends up along the lines of:

India: We shall make peace because, you will get blah blah and blah.
Pakis: We want more
India: Here have more
Pakis: We want still more
India: Okay have still more
Pakis: Heh, I just set fire to your metorpolis
India: Why the F would you do that? You dont get anything now!
Pakis: Okay, we dont give an F.
India:

Okay have some more

While the land idea and the Alantique idea vaguely tries to solve this problem, what is needed is a scalpel, not a shovel. So Atlantique gets shot down, Pakis lose a plane, a few afsars and a few abduls. Who gives an F?

There should be retribution. Targetted retribution. When I say retribution it needs to be across the spectrum. Leak details about secret foreign currency stashes of all Netas. Take videos and photos of dalliances with Motormas and put them on the web. Of the Netas, of their kids, of their wives, husbands and friends. Bump off the ISI case afsars. Bump off their relatives. Bump off every Jihadi who recruited anyone. After every terror attack, bump off some jernail. It doesnt need to be ones related to the plot. Bump some random one off -- that will give them enough incentive to go find out what ISI is upto.

Now suddenly they have a reason to play ball.

arun · Post by **arun** » 19 Feb 2011 08:29

Students of the Piskology of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan may find this article of interest:

The anti-Rahat conspiracy: Pakistan’s persecution mania

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Feb 2011 08:54

http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/3998/ ... k-home-to/

The Pakistan I knew

This is not the Pakistan I grew up loving. This vision of a bigoted, bloodthirsty country is just as alien to me as it is to you.

The Pakistan I know was warm, bustling and infectious, like a big hug, a loud laugh – like chutney, bright and pungent, or sweet and tangy, like anwar ratol mangoes. It was generous. It was kind. It was the sort of place where a stranger would offer you his bed and himself sleep on the floor if you were a guest at his house; a place where every man, woman or child was assured a spot to rest and a plate of food at the local sufi shrine. A place where leftovers were never tossed in the garbage, always given away, where tea flowed liked water and where a poor man could be a shoe-shiner one day, a balloon-seller the second, and a windshield-wiper the third, but there was always some work to do, some spontaneous job to be had, and so, he got by.

My Pakistan was a variegated puzzle – it was a middle-aged shopkeeper in shalwar kameez riding to work on his bicycle, a 10-year old boy selling roses at the curbside, a high-heeled woman with a transparent pink dupatta over her head tip-tapping to college, with a lanky, slick-haired, lovelorn teenager trailing behind her.

A Michael Jackson-lookalike doing pelvic thrusts at the traffic signals for five rupees, a drag queen chasing a group of truant schoolboys in khaki pants and white button-down shirts. Dimpled women with bangled arms and bulging handbags haggling with cloth vendors, jean-clad girls smoking sheesha at a sidewalk café, and serene old men in white prayer caps emerging from the neighbourhood mosque, falling in step with the endless crowd as the minarets gleamed above with the last rays of the sun in the dusty orange Lahore sky.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 19 Feb 2011 08:58

arun wrote:Students of the Piskology of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan may find this article of interest:

The anti-Rahat conspiracy: Pakistan’s persecution mania

OK which mullah here went around posting in boorqha on the Paki Tribune?:

Habib Ullah Manjotha
Feb 15, 2011 - 10:40AM

Indians want to disturb Pakistani Talent. Pakistan should support its talent with great love & care as it is our precious property. Indians are extremism and they may do other bad tricks for this purpose. Pakistan should use diplomatic powers.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 09:07

Anujan wrote: India is afraid to go to war. Why? because Bangalore might get bombed by a few Ding-dongs. What is wrong with that? The stock market might crash. Engineers working in software companies there might die.

<snip>

This my friends is the biggest handicap India has and the biggest reason why Indian worldview is idiotic.

The only quibble I have with this is that these are the commonly, publicly stated excuses in the media by a small group of people who purport to represent "all Indians". That is true for BRF as well as lay Indians.

If you look at the way India has dealt with "external aggression" there is no set pattern that I can discern other than that India has "played militarily safe". That is Indian netas have, after 1962 taken the advice of the armed forces on what can be done and what cannot be done and have played the game based on that. It is another matter that the same Indian netas have manipulated public opinion in a way that has kept military expenditure within certain limits and have prevented the armed forces from having the wherewithal to achieve more than what is currently possible.

It has to be a political decision to expand the armed forces to a level capable of aggressive occupation of faraway (or nearby) lands as opposed to mere defence.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 19 Feb 2011 09:07

Ghairat and other issues: Ayesha Tammy Haq

We want tariffs changed but won’t change our product range. Did you know that more American men wear boxers but we continue making briefs and just want a bigger quota for our briefs on a lower tariff. Makes absolute sense, after all briefs are nice and tight and will keep a firm grip on the world’s b***s.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Feb 2011 09:09

Acharya wrote:http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/3998/ ... k-home-to/

The Pakistan I knew

This is not the Pakistan I grew up loving. This vision of a bigoted, bloodthirsty country is just as alien to me as it is to you.

The Pakistan I know was warm, bustling and infectious, like a big hug, a loud laugh – like chutney, bright and pungent, or sweet and tangy, like anwar ratol mangoes. It was generous. It was kind. It was the sort of place where a stranger would offer you his bed and himself sleep on the floor if you were a guest at his house; a place where every man, woman or child was assured a spot to rest and a plate of food at the local sufi shrine. A place where leftovers were never tossed in the garbage, always given away, where tea flowed liked water and where a poor man could be a shoe-shiner one day, a balloon-seller the second, and a windshield-wiper the third, but there was always some work to do, some spontaneous job to be had, and so, he got by.

My Pakistan was a variegated puzzle – it was a middle-aged shopkeeper in shalwar kameez riding to work on his bicycle, a 10-year old boy selling roses at the curbside, a high-heeled woman with a transparent pink dupatta over her head tip-tapping to college, with a lanky, slick-haired, lovelorn teenager trailing behind her.

A Michael Jackson-lookalike doing pelvic thrusts at the traffic signals for five rupees, a drag queen chasing a group of truant schoolboys in khaki pants and white button-down shirts. Dimpled women with bangled arms and bulging handbags haggling with cloth vendors, jean-clad girls smoking sheesha at a sidewalk café, and serene old men in white prayer caps emerging from the neighbourhood mosque, falling in step with the endless crowd as the minarets gleamed above with the last rays of the sun in the dusty orange Lahore sky.

Unfortunately this guy, like all Pakis leaves out all mention of all the hidden SDREs of Pakistan who pull down statistics like growth rate, maternal mortality etc. His memory is of a dream Pakistan which was even then deluding itself but is not facing some of the harsh realities of a huge SDRE population.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 19 Feb 2011 09:41

ANALYSIS: Urdu media: dirty and dangerous —Farhat Taj

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 19 Feb 2011 09:42

Anujan wrote: There should be retribution. Targetted retribution. When I say retribution it needs to be across the spectrum. Leak details about secret foreign currency stashes of all Netas. Take videos and photos of dalliances with Motormas and put them on the web. Of the Netas, of their kids, of their wives, husbands and friends. Bump off the ISI case afsars. Bump off their relatives. Bump off every Jihadi who recruited anyone. After every terror attack, bump off some jernail. It doesnt need to be ones related to the plot. Bump some random one off -- that will give them enough incentive to go find out what ISI is upto.

Now suddenly they have a reason to play ball.

One needs to operate on three levels - psychological, political and intelligence.

sum · Post by **sum** » 19 Feb 2011 10:27

It was also learnt during the probe that Davis made upto 12 visits to the tribal areas without informing Pakistani officials.

How can a Amir-kahn make so many trips to the "sensitive zones" of Pak without the Pakis knowing?

Wont a American/Gora stand out like a lit Christmas tree in such areas and immediately be noticed?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Feb 2011 10:46

shiv wrote: Who in Pakistan would want to attack and provoke India?

1) The Pakistan army/ISI/Establishment and its JuD/LeT allies along with Hamid Gul and his ilk
2) Would the Taliban (bad Taliban) who are fighting the Pakistani army want to provoke India? What's in it for them? One could argue that if the bad Taliban attacked India the pressure they face from the Pakistan army would reduce as Paki troops move off to the east.

In my view it is only group 1 that has the biggest motive and ability to carry out an attack on India. And they are under intense US pressure and they are vulnerable to US pressure as well.

The "bad Taliban" do not have as strong a motive and do not have the organization to do that. In fact I believe the bad Taliban could do with Indian help for a free Pakthunistan.

I do not believe that the Paki army/establishment will carry out a terror attack in India now - when the US has more or less stated that any future terror attack in India is already being blamed on Pakistan before it occurs. That means the Paki army will continue to fight America's war for the time being. In exchange the US will keep the Durand line intact. Pakhtunistan will not be formed and the "old world order" with "nation states" like Pakistan and Afghanistan will be "respected" and intact.

Shiv, you are right about Group 1 having the sole motivation for attacking India and not the 'bad Taliban' (at least at this moment of time).

However, I am unable to come to the same conclusion that because of intense US pressure and Group 1's vulnerabilities, they will desist from attacking us. Let me say why.

Among other things, a major reason for 26/11 was to stem the erosion of cadres from LeT/JuD to the Punjabi Taliban ('bad' Taliban). The PA/ISI saw an advantage in stemming this tide for several reasons. One, they were under immense US pressure to stop new Pakistani recruits being sucked into the Af-Pak region. Two, the Punjabi Taliban had decisively broken away from the control of the PA/ISI and were functioning autonomously, even vigorously attacking the PA/ISI itself. Three, the much trusted LeT/JuD could not be allowed to suffer the effects of such manpower attrition as after all they were the prime tool for harassing India.

In recent times, the Americans traced the Kabul attacks to the ISI; they have far more proof of the involvement of the ISI in 26/11 and yet these have not changed any ground realities. Credible terrorist threats continue to be issued to India, fiery speeches from platforms at city centres continue to be given by LeT/JuD leaders with impunity, terror training centres continue to offer their curricula, the farcical court drama over 26/11 terrorists continues in Lahore and Adiala as India helplessly watches by. We may never know how India thwarted these threats from fructifying The Pakistanis know pretty well that the Americans will not go to war with Pakistan on behalf of India and India herself will not do so. The Americans will go to war only when their personnel or assets are directly hit by the PA/ISI, but, the Pakistanis are not unduly concerned by that, IMO. The squeeze on Pakistan's economy will have a much stronger effect but the Americans are petrified by the thought of the implosion of a nuclear Pakistan and its consequences and may not take this route into far. Thus, the Pakistanis know that their nuclear weapons not only shield them against the Indians but also against the Americans. They don't need to have ICBMs. Moreover, they can always spin a story that the Yahud-Hunud-Nasara combination is planning an attack on India and create a war hysteria and threaten to lob a few nukes towards India. By merely threatening to destabilize itself, Pakistan can stop others in their tracks from retaliation.

So, nothing effectively deters PA/ISI/LeT/JuD in their pursuits.

As for the PA/ISI fighting the 'American War', well, they have only fought them fraudulently. While they have really fought in one or two instances to give the appearance of being on the side of the Americans, at most other times, they have flattened empty mud houses after giving sufficient warning and time to the Taliban to escape. They will of course continue to engage in this subterfuge.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 19 Feb 2011 10:47

sum wrote:
can a Amir-kahn make so many trips to the "sensitive zones" of Pak without the Pakis knowing?
Wont a American/Gora stand out like a lit Christmas tree in such areas and immediately be noticed?

No, if you know the trade and tricks.

sum · Post by **sum** » 19 Feb 2011 10:53

Prem wrote: No, if you know the trade and tricks.

Sigh, and the SDREs who can slip in and out unnoticed ( indistinguishable from aam junta there) do not use these "tricks and trades" to further Indian causes there!!!

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 19 Feb 2011 10:57

somnath wrote: .I said before, barring a few perceptive analysts, bulk of the Pak establishment still wants to maintain conventional parity of some sort with India...It doesnt make a major difference (to the balance) - there is only so much that aid money can buy, compared to the massive amounts India can/does spend - but that is a fetish..

somnath wrote:for everyone here who thinks that the extra two squadrons of F16s (or the extra 200 NVGs!) made a difference to India's strategic response calculus in 1998, 2001 or 2008 - well, I have nothing to say (balderdash, cop out et al)...The chaps who actually made policy durign those occasions dont articulate such reasons! Their concentration seems to be pretty focused on the nukes...

From the book: "Operation Parakram: The War Unfinished" by Lt Gen V. K. Sood and Pravin Sawhney

Page 145-170

Professionals acknowledge that India's edge in conventional military capabilities over Pakistan is slender. According to the Kargil Review Committee Report, "On the Indian side, it had been made abundantly clear that the Indian Army has not for sometime enjoyed a punitive edge over the Pakistan army to adopt an effective proactive strategy. A more definitive assertion comes from the army doctrine written under the aegis of the Army Training Command (ARTAC): "On our Western borders [with Pakistan], a conventional conflict would probably be fought under conditions of near parity, both in qualitative and quantitative terms." ... These elaborate defences [irrigation canal defence, concrete bunkers which are impervious to even conventional 450kg bombs] have been built over decades. The philosophy of such a linear deployment was suggested by the US to Field Marshal Ayub Khan. ... Unlike the Maginot line, which was outflanked, or the Saddam line in Kuwait, which collapsed on contact with the allied forces in the 1991 Gulf War, the linear defence line between India and Pakistan is formidable. A hardened concrete construction, it cannot be outflanked because it is a continuous stretch of over 2,000 km from Chammb in J&K to the middle of Rajasthan. ... A vertical envelopment of this defence line is not possible for either country as it would require assets of the scale of the US 101 Airborne division, which was emplaced in depth in the 1991 Gulf War. In the subcontinent, no more lift capability than that of a reinforced infantry battalion helicopter is available.

...

The net result of this operational stance is that India does not have any qualitative or quantitative advantage over Pakistan.

...

Unfortunately, in the usage of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads, Pakistan scores over India as it has sufficient numbers, solid propellant fuel, and assured accuracy.

Pakistan's employment of its ballistic missiles is expected to follow the Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army (PLA) thinking, which now places importance on its Conventional Missile Forces (CMFs), considered more usable than the nuclear ones.

...

As a result of all this, India's combat edge vis-a-vis Pakistan has eroded over the years. A report in a leading newspaper in October 2002 quoted the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence as saying that India's conventional superiority over Pakistan's military in April 2002 was barely 1: 1.2. This had come down from the 1: 1.7 superiority that India had enjoyed over Pakistan during the 1971 war. ... What is little known is that during the Kargil War, India's conventional edge over Pakistan stood at a mere 1: 1.1.

...

According to calculations, even though the IAF has maintained its 1971 edge of 3:1 in terms of interdiction tonnage, the PAF has quantum-jumped its long-range strike tonnage to approach near parity with India.

...

Moreover, the Pakistan Army ha a unique reconnaissance and support battalion with each infantry division. Each has three composite companies as part of the three brigades, armed with anti-tank firepower and medium/heavy small-arms fire. Having no equivalents in the Indian Army, these battalions are mobile, and are expected to be employed with strike corps reconnaissance regiments and various division armoured regiments.

Pakistan also has firing data computers available at the battery level; it meteorological data is accurate and it has a lead in SP artillery. This results in accuracy in and mobility of firepower, which offsets the numerical advantage in artillery pieces with India. In terms of accuracy and mobility, the Pakistan artillery has somewhat of a lead over India.

Raja Bose · Post by **Raja Bose** » 19 Feb 2011 10:58

sum wrote:
It was also learnt during the probe that Davis made upto 12 visits to the tribal areas without informing Pakistani officials.
How can a Amir-kahn make so many trips to the "sensitive zones" of Pak without the Pakis knowing?

Wont a American/Gora stand out like a lit Christmas tree in such areas and immediately be noticed?

It is a TFTA region...not hard for TFPEs to blend in once the hair grows in different parts.

sum · Post by **sum** » 19 Feb 2011 11:00

From the book: "Operation Parakram: The War Unfinished" by Lt Gen V. K. Sood and Pravin Sawhney

OT, but would you happen to have a e-copy of this book, sir?

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 19 Feb 2011 11:01

naah, sorry

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 19 Feb 2011 11:06

One thing I am noticing also.

The media hype in Pakistan on the Raymond Davis issue is by reporters who are known ISI's pillas.
These media expose after media expose can only occur because the ISI is getting the media to release more stuff that will further incriminate Raymond Davis in things and scuttle attempts to release him.

Now how involved Nawaz Sharif is in all this? There is no love lost between the US and Nawaz Sharif.

Nawaz Sharif seems to be betting on the ISI, Islamists and the abduls on the streets on the long run here, by taking their side?

Looks like the powers that be in pakistan are chipping away at the US presence in Af-Pak, by frustrating their operations and even presence there.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Feb 2011 11:14

abhishek_sharma - shocking! At 1:1.1 edge, what punitive action is India going to take? It turns Indian leaders from pusillanimous to prudent.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 19 Feb 2011 11:15

US may increase Pak aid by 100pc if Davis released

ISLAMABAD: Washington has not only linked civil and military aid to Pakistan with the ‘respectable’ release of Raymond Davis, the US national and assassin of the two Pakistanis in Lahore, but also has hinted at substantial increase in the aid, may be by 100 percent, under Kerry-Lugar Law from $7.5 billion to $15 billion in five years.

habal · Post by **habal** » 19 Feb 2011 11:29

A_Gupta wrote:abhishek_sharma - shocking! At 1:1.1 edge, what punitive action is India going to take? It turns Indian leaders from pusillanimous to prudent.

bas ab kya hain ? Ghutnon par baithe raho. Everything is clear, including why terrorist attacks have increased because pakis do not fear any land invasion with this equation.

Only redeeming factor in this bleak scenario is that technology can help India scale things up pretty fast, if we may so want. While tspa might have to depend upon external help, which may not be forthcoming in the event of a 'losing-face terror attack'. That is probably why it was also pointed out a few pg ago that 'no terror attack will come' because it leads quickly to such a scenario.

It is important for India to diversify defence production esp the decisive & 'game-changer' categories. And even if production volumes are kept pretty low, there should be a capability to ramp up really quickly. Seeming to be obviously superior isn't necessary if we have Japan-type capabilities of converting huge parts of civilian infra and inventory to military use.

AjayKK · Post by **AjayKK** » 19 Feb 2011 11:33

Former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan Mr. Satish Chandra writes in today's IE:

Knowing when not to talk

Excellent article. Some excerpts:

Indeed, coincidental or not, whenever the dialogue process has been underway the number of terrorist actions by Pakistan against India, exclusive of J&K, have been higher than when it has been under suspension. Thus between 2004 and 2008 when the talks were in full flow, there were as many as 21 major terrorist actions against India, as compared to two between 2000 and 2004 and one after 2008 when the dialogue process was in abeyance.

The rumour mills have it that, in order to provide sustenance to the resumed dialogue, there may be compromises on issues like Sir Creek and Siachen. Going by historical record, one can rest assured that Pakistan will not be the one to make any compromises and any forward movement would require India to do all the running. Such one-sided compromises are best avoided.

It is unfortunate that there has been little critical comment or analysis in the media on the decision to resume the dialogue process. Perhaps this is due to its preoccupation with the innumerable scams that have afflicted the nation. The same excuse does not, however, hold good for many of our security analysts involved in Track II India-Pakistan love-fests at various exotic locations lending their names to joint statements calling for “sustained engagement” between the two countries on a “full range of issues”. Such exhortations are not only contrary to our stated policy, following the Mumbai attacks, but are also reflective of how soon some of us find it possible to forget the enormity of the injury and shame that these attacks imposed upon the nation.

In other words, love fests talks == preparing ground for more terror attacks! Such a precedence of talking with the adversary and being hit by them consequently, leading to more talks, is impossible to find in any texts.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 19 Feb 2011 11:38

That 1:1.1 ratio was because we could not spend on defence due to economy-related problems in early 1990s. Now the situation should have improved. The defence budget increased by 30% in 2009, but the increase mainly paid for 6th Pay Commission related issues.
Probably some military-gurus will provide more information about these issues.

I posted it here because some people believe that conventional war-related issues were not important after 1990. I should add that the book has been written by the Vice Chief of Indian Army. Unlike some posters here, he knows what he is talking about.