Surviving a 50 to 100 nuke bomb attack on India

[shiv]

For quite a while now I have had some thoughts about nuclear war which I thought I will put down. In the end I though it would be best to start a new thread.

Nuclear war of course has been discussed to death in the public sphere in the US during the cold war - and people of my late father's generation probably took part in that debate and in the "preparations" for war that some in the US made in those days.

For us, one or two generations behind in India, the subject is treated like sex. No one wants to discuss it freely and frankly. All discussion is aimed at telling people to shut their gob because it is so terrible. This is absolutely stupid. China after all has 400 odd nuclear weapons and Pakistan has more than a hundred. Our armed forces prepare to fight in a nuclear environment. Should we not also talk of nuclear war and how it will affect us bharat-vaasis?

I have my own views on this and this post is mainly to post my views and stimulate discussion. Agreement with my views is unnecessary.

IIRC there were plans in the US (maybe in the 1960s) when people were told how to survive nuclear war. Maybe the US was right and India is wrong (as usual). When you openly discuss the effects of nuclear war with your population they contribute to the national body of thought by their actions and feedback. That can add to national strength, even if it creates initial widespread discomfort and panic. A nation prepared for nuclear war is itself a deterrent in its own right that serves to strike doubt into an adversary's ability to cow down the other nation.

I am going to mention the building of civilian underground shelters, stocking of food, water and Iodide tablets as unnecessary and impracticable in India. A couple of years ago I wrote about the effects of a nuclear bomb on Rawalpindi. It still exists on page 18 of the deterrence thread and it is linked below
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 87#p767587

Much of what I have written will hold true for a nuclear attack on an Indian urban area.

I want to speak of my personal vision for the the way in which India must prepare for a nuclear attack with 50 to 100 nuclear weapons. I am not going to deal with the political and military actions and questions of second strike or third strike. India retaliation is the other guy's problem, not mine. I only want to speak of a vision to make India as we know it survive such an attack. My survival is unimportant. It is OK if I or my near and dear ones get eliminated as long as the nation survives with the wherewithal to pick up the pieces after such an attack and move forward.

There are three tiers to such survival in my view.

The first is ballistic missile defence. I will not dwell on this - the topic is not for this thread

The second tier is the preservation of national assets and national technical means by spreading them out. I mean that even if 15 major cities are taken out - India should have enough manpower surviving in smaller towns to take any other high tech area and not lose much time, because in the aftermath of nuclear war - the time you lose because of the war is the time gained by others. For example - 3-4 nukes on Bangalore will do serious damage to the Indian aerospace industry. Spreading this out into small towns all over India - and putting people who do not need to work on the spot in those towns should be a matter of policy. For example people working say on flight control or other software can be placed far away. Colleges and centers of learning and research should move out of big cities to the periphery. They must survive with their teachers. Along with this we need to have a vast infrastructure supporting healthcare to move out to the periphery as well - especially the things needed in the aftermath of nuclear war such as intravenous fluids and antibiotics. Granaries and food and fuel storage centers should again be outside the main expected targets of nuclear attack.

The third tier would be self preservation. Some of us will be peacefully vaporised. Others will suffer intolerably for days or weeks and die. But many will walk away and have a chance to survive. Their chances must be maximised. They will all move in a mass exodus away from the main centers that are hit by nuclear attack. They will move along roads away from the center of destruction - expectedly towards peripheral towns. Those towns and the roads leading there must have the facilities to house refugees and the injured. That is where we must ready the food and water and Iodide. If you want to have a little country house stocked will all you need for them to survive in cause you get nuked in your city workplace - that is up to you to implement. But plan for guests and the homeless as well.

There will be all sorts of shortages. Food, medicine and fuel. There will be chaos and death. But we need to think about that and talk about that and plan how to move forward.

And while we do that I hope we are also planning to vaporise the people who nuked us and their nuclear suppliers. But that is a different subject. What we do to others will not help us survive. Please post thoughts and responses.

[sourab_c]

Just want to add my views regarding the "openness" surrounding the nuclear war debate. I think the scale of a nuclear war is grossly underestimated around the world. It truly is "extermination" of a certain group of people. The ease with which we use the term scares me a bit.

Also, when a country suddenly starts preparing for a nuclear war, it will not be able to do so going unnoticed. It would definitely ring some alarm bells around the world.

Therefore, if a country does prepare for it, it must be done in the most secretive manner.

[RKumar]

I agree with you that research institutes and big pharma company should be moved away from any city having more then 10 lac people. Because that is where the first nuke will be dropped. I was puzzled why we have military hardware producing factories dispersed? you comments solved this puzzle. I think babus have already given some thought on it

Regarding storing the food and medicines, I will not not worry much because India is still peasant country where most people live in villages or small cities. So people will manage and take care of them self in case they escape the wrath of nukes. Of course small villages or cities will not be able to manage huge influx of people but I don't expect that all the influx will go to any one place.

[Cosmo_R]

"Nuclear war of course has been discussed to death in the public sphere in the US during the cold war.

I'd like to share a couple of thoughts on this subject:

1. During the early 1980's, the State of New York wanted to spend $25 million on a study to draw up plans to evacuate Manhattan (population 8 million in those days) in the event of a nuclear attack. It was quickly pointed out that rush hour (into and out of Manhattan) involved some 1 million people and took (then) about 3 hours. A warning would provide at most 15 minutes for the evacuation of 8 million people and then here's the real catch—where to? New Jersey (about a mile away)? The study was not funded.

2. George Carlin (I think it was) said: "In school when I was a kid we did the Duck and Cover drills. Crawl under your desk and cover your head with your arms. Seemed like a good idea at the time. Then I got a little older and it changed to "Upon observing the mushroom cloud, quickly bend over grasping the back of your knees, stick your head between your legs, and kiss your a$$ goodbye!"

3. The GOTUS only planned for the safety of its own:

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2008/1 ... clear.html

In sum, what saved everyone was MAD principle. The problem we have in India is that we have an irrational nuclear opponent—Pakistan. China is completely rational and does not want any knife fight that would benefit unkil.

So, what do you do with an irrational Pakistan? How do you manage a possible attack? As long as they don't have boomers, we'll get unmistakable clues if they start the sequence. The only logical course then is to nuke them comprehensively first and whatever they've got left, you intercept as many as you can with BDM.

ABV once said (and he was roundly criticized by US think tankers for this): "We are not going to wait for their missiles to land on us before we retaliate." I think many of us on BR also picked up a subtle change in the NFU—it now says something like "NFU against non-nuclear weapons states". I don't think that NNWS relies on the same definition as in the NPT. Brookings picked up on that but since India is now a 'strategic partner', they have not shouted it from the rooftops.

There is no way India will survive if hit by more 3 or 4 nukes and they are not likely to be coming from China.

JMT.

[RajeshA]

Just want to add my views regarding the "openness" surrounding the nuclear war debate. I think the scale of a nuclear war is grossly underestimated around the world. It truly is "extermination" of a certain group of people. The ease with which we use the term scares me a bit.

Also, when a country suddenly starts preparing for a nuclear war, it will not be able to do so going unnoticed. It would definitely ring some alarm bells around the world.

Therefore, if a country does prepare for it, it must be done in the most secretive manner.

sourab_c ji,

I disagree with you completely. The best deterrence to war is the willingness to take a punch! The biggest weapon of a bully is fear. You take away the fear, and the bully loses his most potent weapon!

If you want to put fear in the heart of the bully, then the only way to do it, is to show, and that too openly, that your are preparing yourself to take the punch! And without using so many words, you are also asking him, whether he too is preparing himself!

Either if his general governance is bad, or if his assets are too concentrated, or if he wants to avoid being seen as vulnerable; then he is definitely not ready, and his people too are not ready!

Pakistan always says, that if they go down, they will also take us down, along with them! We have to tell them, NO! If they go down, they go down alone! They can hit whatever way they want, but we are not going down; only they will go down and that too much quicker! Their going down would have little relevance! It will be a useless death! What can be a better way to stop a suicide bomber, than telling him, that his death would have no meaning!

Suicide is Pakistan's last ace in hand! We need to neutralize that ace as well!

It is the meaninglessness of death, that would push them to think about living, and when they think about living, they have to arrange with their neighbors.

If we do it openly, first they will simply think we are afraid, and they will enjoy that! Once we institutionalize our preparations for nuclear war, and it becomes a regular topic of discussion, they will think we are paranoid, and become afraid of our paranoia as well! When our posture becomes aggressive, then it will dawn upon them that their nukes have lost their bite, they cannot make us afraid anymore, then they will start thinking of reconciliation!

[RajeshA]

In sum, what saved everyone was MAD principle. The problem we have in India is that we have an irrational nuclear opponent—Pakistan. China is completely rational and does not want any knife fight that would benefit unkil.

So, what do you do with an irrational Pakistan? How do you manage a possible attack? As long as they don't have boomers, we'll get unmistakable clues if they start the sequence. The only logical course then is to nuke them comprehensively first and whatever they've got left, you intercept as many as you can with BDM.

The only way MAD principle works, is if both sides decide that both are equally MAD. We still have to prove our madness! At a much lesser scale, for example by retaliating every terrorist attack on India.

[saip]

I dont know about India surviving but can the world survive that many (100 - 200 incl the counter attack)?

[ramana]

First of all 50-100 is not enough. It has to be more than three times to ensure all the stuff is taken out. And all possible delivery options, storage areas, command and control centers are taken out. And such inventories are not there even for most of the P-5. Throw on on Red Fort days are over. Thanks to PVNR.

[Dipanker]

India will survive a 100 nuke attack ( the current Paki stock ) in the sense that it will still have a few hundred tier 3 towns and a few hundred thousands villeges left intact.

The population may be reduced by 1/2, still upward of 500 million people (approx. population level if early 70's ) will survive. It may take the nation another 50 - 100 years to recover.

Question is will the Pakis survive after that? I don't think so, all 200 millions of them will be dead.

[Cosmo_R]

In sum, what saved everyone was MAD principle. The problem we have in India is that we have an irrational nuclear opponent—Pakistan. China is completely rational and does not want any knife fight that would benefit unkil.

So, what do you do with an irrational Pakistan? How do you manage a possible attack? As long as they don't have boomers, we'll get unmistakable clues if they start the sequence. The only logical course then is to nuke them comprehensively first and whatever they've got left, you intercept as many as you can with BDM.

The only way MAD principle works, is if both sides decide that both are equally MAD. We still have to prove our madness! At a much lesser scale, for example by retaliating every terrorist attack on India.

Well, think about the scenario I outlined above. It's a modified MAD which essentially implies to the Pakis that we will launch first if they cross that red line because we believe they are serious. Perversely, I think the Pakis will get it. Like you however, I have my doubts whether any foreseeable PM will act versus running around and oozing Gandhian 'anguish'.

IOW, you can set up a system to deter Pakis but the missing link is Indian leadership or the lack of it.

[Amber G.]

It seems that there is much interest in "50 to 100 nuclear bombs" in recent articles in NYtimes and Time...(Eg this recent Time article )

Recent calculations/models by Alan Robock etc for 50 15Kt bombs predict .. quite a bit of smoke ...blocking out sunlight.. cooling the planet .. and unprecedented climate change ... along with about 20 million initially killed


FWIW here is :http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

[vijayk]

India successfully test-fires missile interceptor

India successfully flight-tested an indigenously built interceptor missile from Wheeler Island off the Orissa coast on Sunday, joining the US, Russia and Israel in an elite group of countries to have accomplished the mission.

The interceptor, developed under the Ballistic Missile Defence System, destroyed the target, a variant of Prithvi-II mimicking an enemy missile, fired from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur on-Sea in Balasore district, about 70 km from Wheeler Island at an altitude of 16 km over the Bay of Bengal. "The interceptor was fired five minutes after the target was set offaround 9:32 am," said director, ITR, S P Dash.

[Atri]

In such case,we need a weapon and a strategy to use that weapon which will ensure liquidation of all paki males in all paki cities,towns,villages and forests. Also, their network in India too will be liquidated..

Furthermore, they should be convinced that Indians will "upabhoga" their women and reclaim their land and resources because they created few "bad-patches" on territory of Republic of India which have been rendered unusable (due to radioactive fall out) for some time. Answer to a nuke need not necassarily be nuke, but something which is far more worse than nuke.

[Amber G.]

May be of interest: (from the link posted before) This this power point presentation

(Some what later (or middle) see the author's calculations for 50-100 nuke bomb attack on India)

What would be the consequences of a regional nuclear war using 100 15-kT (Hiroshima-size) weapons?
This would be only 0.03% of the current world arsenal.
Scenario: Weapons dropped on the 50 targets in each country that would produce the maximum smoke.
20,000,000 people would die from direct effects, half of the total fatalities from all of World War II.
Portions of megacities attacked with nuclear devices or exposed to fallout of long-lived isotopes would likely be abandoned indefinitely.
5 Tg of smoke injected into the upper troposphere, accounting for fuel loading, emission factors and rainout

(For detail see slides 48 onwards)

[astal]

Answer to a nuke need not necessarily be nuke, but something which is far more worse than nuke.

Well said!

Calling terrorists irrational is a short cut. Instead we need to look at their motivations.

They can be demotivated by a credible promise to destroy all that they hold dear. (Hint: It is not their own lives or the lives of their families). This will serve as the best possible deterrence. The problem is creating political will in India. Instead of knee jerk riots where bystanders are mostly killed, we need to formulate ways in which the guilty see that our response will be unbearable and guaranteed.

[Reddy]

This is a very interesting discussion, i.e if we stay focused.

My two paisas -

- after 100 nukes i don't think much will be left in terms of communication infrastructure. People would not know how much of India is left or if any help is coming. Communication or awareness is most important during crisis of this magnitude. When there is complete collapse of communication people will start thinking if there is any point in pushing forward as ONE (as against everyone for themselves, in other words, complete chaos).

Few things that could circumvent possible chaos are.

- de-centralised administration that is capable of functioning in isolation.
- strong civil defense
- law and order and

(most importantly)
- trust between people and the local civil administration

The last on is most deficient in present India.

[Prem]

What about the global impact and implications of such attackt? It can not be an event in isolation. Lets assume India goes back 20-30 years after this nuke attack but in retaliation send whole Islamic civilization to jaws of extinction.Poaks are terrorist but not to dumb to understand that they will poped and roasted before getting vaporized and same for everything and every one they hold holy. Knowing Indian mind, not a gram of the tons of strategic material will go unutilized in serving this holy cause. NO one has good estimate of Indian strategic weapons . Only thing known is that Maal is increasing by the years and soon or may be already too late for combined nuke attack by CHINPOAK.
Question for Guru, is it fair to attach 2-3 month of total national loss for each bomb successfuly penetrating Indian defences. With 100 Combined nukes , India might be sent back to 80s-90s. But OTOH, Holding enough foreign reserves will make the recovery easy and much faster. And India cacthes up in less than 20 years. With no mortal enemy left , She can go her own way unhindred to earn right spot among civilized nations of the world.

[shiv]

It seems that there is much interest in "50 to 100 nuclear bombs" in recent articles in NYtimes and Time...(Eg this recent Time article )

Recent calculations/models by Alan Robock etc for 50 15Kt bombs predict .. quite a bit of smoke ...blocking out sunlight.. cooling the planet .. and unprecedented climate change ... along with about 20 million initially killed


FWIW here is :http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

Thanks for these links. Saw 3 presentations (they share common slides) and there is some interesting information. One assumption that is made for the world is that there is the same "fuel loading" per person that will lead to sooty fires. I am less sure that this is correct. However I think a Pakistani attitude is essential here.

Pakistan says to the world "You do something about India or we will start nuclear war". This is a trick that makes it impossible for a rational India to respond.

The only option left for India is to be irrational and say "OK. Let us have nuclear war. We aim to carry on after the damage is done. If the world has a nuclear winter so what - we are the ones who have been hit by nukes directly - not you and and you are the guys who watched and cheered as Pakistanis got their nukes. Cuddle up with a warm blanket and enjoy your nuclear winter"

[somnath]

100 nukes! Forget the impact on India, its a huge amount of stretch to imagine the technical and political capacities that any nation (barring maybe US and Russia on the technical front) needs to possess to fire off that many nukes...

Pak has an estimated 100 nukes...Can all of them be used in one quick exchange? Or even a burst of exchanges? Do they even have that many vectors (wired F16s and missiles)? Both in India and in Pak, warheads and delivery vectors are kept separate - its part of the CBM shindig...How long does it take for even these to be put together? Can a country one fine morning decide to use all its nukes and have all of them ready to go?

Second, use of the even the first few nukes on both sides will smply break the nation state structures on both sides - there is enough reading material of Cold War vintage to study impact of nuclear attacks...India (or Pak) will not be in position to do anything meaninfully "statist", forget launching a few dozen more nukes...

[ShauryaT]

Shiv: Do we have a plan to manage the aftermath of a nuclear attack? I mean, who is responsible for this plan? Home? I do not remember reading much about this in the Indian scenario. If some members have then please post.

[shiv]

Shiv: Do we have a plan to manage the aftermath of a nuclear attack? I mean, who is responsible for this plan? Home? I do not remember reading much about this in the Indian scenario. If some members have then please post.

Shaurya - in the aftermath of the 1998 tests I was requested by a forum member and author of a book to see if I could find out details of disaster management plans. I was unable to find anything other than the barest details. But over a decade has passed since then, and after that there have been national level bodies set up to work out details of "disaster management". At least one good friend of mine, who was then a senior professor in Surgery at a national institute was deeply involved and I had a chance to speak to him in the context of nuclear conflict. Of course nuclear conflict was not on the minds of the national disaster management authority because disasters that affect 20 million people and kill 10,000 are commonplace in India and the basic infrastructure to manage all disasters is pretty much the same. Simulated disaster management exercises are held from time to time.

But no one is talking about nuclear war. One or two or five nukes on India will be dealt with by the usual mechanisms that exist. But 50 nukes in a disastrous exchange is what we to talk about. Whether is is possible or likely is a different issue. The nukes exist and they are aimed at India. Someone somewhere has plans about what to hit in India in case of conflict and clearly India the nation takes survival after nuclear war seriously otherwise it is unlikely that we would be putting any erfort into a credible second strike mechanism, or a nuclear triad, or BMD.

Clearly if the government does not have the political motivation to start a public debate it must be left to private parties to start a public debate on this issue. No means was available to the public to engage in such debate prior to the advent of the internet. Like nukes - if you've got it, use it.

[vera_k]

IOW, you can set up a system to deter Pakis but the missing link is Indian leadership or the lack of it.

Godhra train burning and post-Godhra riots proved that Indian people will act and react even in this day and age without caring about what state leadership does or does not do. So I'd say that Pakistan is unlikely to be the source of the attack since the two countries share an accessible border and the surviving people can easily come to blows.

China is a different story however. The significance of this is that the weapons used for the attack are likely to be far bigger than the ones assumed to be present in the Pakistani arsenal.

[somnath]

Godhra train burning and post-Godhra riots proved that Indian people will act and react even in this day and age without caring about what state leadership does or does not do.

Wow!

[Prem]

Nothing to wow if some one live on earth.
Paki inspiration is Civilizational and required similar response.An attempt of this scale simply dont give any other option but to make them extinct. This is the reality and lets not gnore that politicians come in many shades, If one wont act , there are many who will do the duty and respond to the call. For weaken India to surive , it must bite everything remotely connected with Poaks.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

I wonder.....

How much lead lining would be needed to defend against a neutron bomb?

If it's not too much, or too thick, maybe something like this could be written into the building code.

[ShauryaT]

Just Fishing.

Management of Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies

The National Vision is to prevent nuclear and radiological emergencies which are essentially man-made in nature. However, in rare cases of their occurrence, due to natural or man-made factors beyond human control, such emergencies will be so managed through certain pre-planned and established structural and non-structural measures by the various stakeholders, as to minimise risks to health, life and the environment.

Focus on Command and Control and critical infrastructure/institutions, seem to be missing.


India’s Nuclear Disaster Management Mechanism: An Assessment

Acting to tackle natural disasters and combat nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. Each battalion will provide eighteen self-contained specialist search and rescue teams of forty five personnel each including engineers, technicians, electricians, dog squads and medical/paramedics. The total strength of each battalion will be approximately 1,158. As per this directive, the National Emergency Response Force battalions will be deployed in strategic locations under the supervision of the director-general of civil defense. These NDRF battalions are located at nine different locations in the country based on the vulnerability profile to cut down considerably the response time for their deployment. During the preparedness period in a threatening disaster situation, proactive deployment of these forces will be carried out by the NDMA in consultation with state authorities. It would be a special force like the Rapid Action Force to be under the overall control of Central Reserve Police Force. The Bhabha Atomic Research Centre will train select
under NDMA’s directive, India's Union Home Ministry is raising eight battalions
officers of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) and the Indo-Tibetan Border Force (ITBF) on responding to nuclear disasters, and these officers will in turn train their subordinates in disaster management. Four battalions will gain expertise only in nuclear, biological and chemical warfare. Capsules on disaster management are being included in the training schedules of all central para-military forces, the Indian Administrative Service, the Indian Police Service, The Indian Foreign Service and State Police Forces so that government officers are well equipped with the basic technical knowledge on how to respond in cases of emergency.

[ShauryaT]

Nuclear Emergency Response

This short write up is primarily meant to educate the public and instill confidence about the Emergency Response System of DAE to handle radiation emergencies. As regards nuclear facilities of DAE, the regulatory and safety systems ensure that equipment are designed to operate safely and even in the unlikely event of any failure or accident, mechanisms like plant and site emergency response plans are in place to ensure that the public is not affected in any manner. In addition, detailed plans, which involve the local public authorities, are also in place to respond if the consequences were to spill into the public domain. The System is also in a position to respond to any other radiation emergency in the public domain that may occur at locations, which do not even have any DAE facility.

[Vril]

i think we are reading too much into "irrational paki" and their trigger happy ways. i' am sure forummers remember how much pain was caused to pakis when Gen Deepak Kapoor mentioned war under nuclear umbrella, so much so that even after he was long retired pakis had to 'invent' wikipoo to show Gen DK in bad light.i think that was when paki nuke bluff was called off in the open.

[ShauryaT]

Various aspects are covered here, abstracts only at the link.

National Network for Early Detection of Nuclear Emergency: Indian Environmental Radiation Monitoring Network (IERMON)..

A Container based Nuclear Radioactivity Analysis Laboratory

NBC Disaster Management Services: Efforts & Preparedness at BEL
In India vis-à-vis R&D efforts from DRDO, DAE, BEL has taken its in-house program towards NBC preparedness. The areas are:
a) RPL Dosimeter as Nuclear Detector b) CBRN Shielded Al-Shelter c) Containerized Mobile Water Purification Plant for Uses at CBRN affected sites

POST RADIOLOGICAL & NUCLEAR EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND GAPS

Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies: Requirement of State of the Art Systems and Methodologies for Impact Assessment and Response

Role of Medical First Responders in the Management of Nuclear/Radiological Emergencies (NREs)

Leveraging Human Resource for Effective Management of CBRN Emergencies

Emergency Preparedness in Indian Nuclear Power Plants

[ShauryaT]

Where is the national disaster management authority? --- Page 28

Ultimately, the effectiveness of India’s disaster management system will be judged by the response of all institutions—from advisory bodies, to last mile services, central and state—during and after a disaster. In order to develop a capable and mature disaster management system, the government must strengthen autonomous institutions like the NDMA, and provide sufficient funding and resources for last mile and civil defence forces. India must demand a much higher level of performance than what the NDMA has hitherto demonstrated.

[A_Gupta]

I think it is non-trivial to ready and launch 50-100 nukes, so the single most important task is to be able to detect the preparations for such an attack and preempt it.

The nation must accept that such an attack is both possible and probable and not be an ostrich on this.

[vera_k]

I wonder.....

How much lead lining would be needed to defend against a neutron bomb?

If it's not too much, or too thick, maybe something like this could be written into the building code.

A few years ago, my neighbour's home had a bomb shelter. Apart from the initial buildout, the systems had to be checked out every year and it was an expensive affair. For example, the NBC filter only lasts so long, so it had to be replaced since the shelter dated to the 60s.

So there's more to it than lead lining. But some shelters could be built as part of the coming infrastructure buildout or MGNREGA spending. And if the populace starts demanding shelters, private developers would build communal shelters as a marketing advantage similar to how they build swimming pools today.

[Ambar]

Let me try to draw an opinion on the last 3 epic disasters that have hit India - Bhopal gas tragedy, Latur Earthquake, and Gujarat earthquake. (ofcourse, i've dropped innumerous floods and droughts that create havoc almost every year). Bhopal gas tragedy is perhaps a good example of a confused situation that arises while dealing with an invisible killer. Thousands perished on the first day of the disaster and yet our response was pumping people with glucose and eyedrops. Infact, for most who survived the first day,no help ever arrived to deal with MIC poisoning. Nor did the government try and evacuate what was a small city compared to most Indian metropolis today.

Bottomline, even if the government goes as far as to fund studies on dealing with such a large scale disaster, they lack the will to execute it. 27 years after the Bhopal tragedy, the MIC tank still sits in the same spot,highly poisonous blackened soil is all over the surrounding areas, and a homes are being pumped with poison laced drinking water. The government still hopes that DOW will clean up the mess - this after 27 yrs!

A more pragmatic approach would be educate citizens about the inevitability of nuclear attack, and how to survive and self-sustain.Most large government hospitals don't have a single functioning emergency unit, let alone to deal with entire metro being nuked. If i do survive a nuclear attack, how do i safeguard myself from radiation poisoning ? How can i be sure that there is enough safe water to survive for days? Food that can last for months, and above all, a remote place to relocate asap after an attack.

[RajeshA]

Just some thoughts:

I think we need a Law which mandates that India as a state, our various federal and state level agencies, our aftermath-secondary systems, various institutions - public and private, look at the issue of preparations for a post-nuclear exchange survival with earnest and in an institutionalized manner.

For example, it must be mandated by law, that every institution deemed as important for national survival as well as big companies, should set up a team of 3-4 employees, the Disaster Preparedness Management Team, who should prepare an annual paper on the stand of preparedness for a disaster. Every year they should clearly state, what has changed from last year, in their preparedness level, and they should make suggestions on how to improve the preparedness level. These papers, they should present to the board of their respective institution, at least once a year.

Each and every institution is responsible to see to it, that its prepared to meet any contingency, including a nuclear fall-out. A federal agency, perhaps the NDMA, should be responsible for checking the contention of these institutions.

In every state there should be an Association of Disaster Preparedness Managers, consisting of Disaster Preparedness Management Teams of all institutions and major companies, and they should network with each other, perhaps over a dedicated secured Internet Portal and there should be annual 2 day meetings/conferences, where they can get to know each other and collect ideas. Organizational aspects of the association should be funded by the state government.

The Association of Disaster Preparedness Managers is furthermore responsible for lobbying with the state government, for funds and resources, but most importantly to hold the government accountable for the state government's preparedness level. At an annual meeting, the state government needs to account for its own activities and undertakings to improve the preparedness level of the state in meeting disaster contingencies. The have to show that the National Commons in the state, are secured - the food storage, the water reservoirs, the medical supplies, the bunkers, etc.

Also I don't know far this is the case, but all medical doctors in India should have a working knowledge of how to deal with a nuclear fall-out. Ideally this knowledge should be imparted during their college education itself.

Those medical doctors who are not qualified, need to register themselves for courses, perhaps organized in various colleges itself, to get a certificate. They can be given two years to undertake such an information dissemination course, and if they do not do it, their practitioner's license should be suspended until they do this course.

[RajeshA]

Some thoughts:

Considering that after a nuclear fall-out in India, it would be important to save

1. our children
2. our civilization - the Dharmik leadership,
3. our experts - medical doctors, scientists, engineers, academics
4. our state apparatus - Government ministers, Indian Parliamentarians, administrators
5. our security infrastructure - the Army, police, etc.

it is important that our children are best placed to take care of themselves in case of a nuclear fall-out. As such, IMHO, it is important that our children be given some survival training course every year from 9th class onwards.

[Nihat]

Interesiting topic, perhaps one which could have been continued from "Surviving Nuclear War" in the military forum but certainly worthy of discussion in some detail.

As I see it , a 50 - 100 warhead strike on mainland India today will throw the country into absolute chaos with everything from Economy to supply infrastructure going down the toilet. However, there are a few things going for us in the near to mid term future.

# Metro construction in our cities has caught the fancy of our politicians it seems and apart from Delhi metro there are other systems u/c such as Kolkata metro (extn.) , B'lore metro, Mumbai metro, Chennai metro. Not to mention those in the works such as Pune, Kochi, Hyderabad, Navi mumbai , Lucknow metro etc. They are mostly a mix of elevated + u/g but the u/g parts have significantly large stations and two way tunnels. Even though they are nowhere near enough for general population but surely vital information and important people can be evacuated and take there if need be. Also, Disaster management batallions can work out of there and once an attack is over they can move out and help set the city in some sort of order.

# Since 66% or 2/3rd of our population is rural so this has entailed significant investment in Rural infrastructure in India and politics will ensure that significant goodies continue to be handed over to villages including essentials such as Hospitals, Food supplies, fuel , road network coverage, railways coverage (including stations as housing outposts), a distribution network and governance council or sorts etc. This will ensure that fleeing population will always have population settlements in nearby villages.

# Recent emphasis on road nework enhancement and NH construction is also good news as it offers multiple entry / exit points from every major city into smaller areas.



For any war to go that bad that it comes to a 100 warhead strike will require significant time in a conflict as nobody is going nuclear on day 1 of a war. So , there should be a significant window (assume 2 weeks ) to carry out evacuations and backup vital information to start over once it's all finished.



P.S. - There is no deterrance like beam weapons and I hope the people that matter are furiously working on these as they are the ultimate in deterrace and can destroy a warhead over enemy space itself, but I won't go too much into this as it'll be OT.

[VikramS]

Thank you shiv ji for opening up this thread. As I had noted in another thread, this is a nightmare scenario for me.
Partly because I see the Indian establishment as too much in live with Shining India 2.0, and almost oblivious to what is happening around them.

We seem to have no idea on what the PLA is doing in POK and what those tunnels and other infrastructure is for. The TSPA continues to churn out new delivery systems, as the periodic tests show (one from each new lot is tested it seems). They continue to ramp up on producing fissile material. And no one is saying or doing anything.

I think before we go into how India will react if it happens, it would help to game out the scenarios under which it can happen. It is the circumstances under which the doomsday machine is launched which will probably determine how India reacts.

Scenario A: Qayamat
My most likely scenario is a world in chaos due to economic uncertainty; each power trying to save its system and too worried to care about anyone else. The string-pullers in TSP look away, and TSP is desperate for attention. Internally it is falling apart as the current socio-economic trends continue. It is running out of land and water and while the regime is on its last gasp.

It then tries that tactically brilliant fatal blow, to settle the issues once for all. Of course it requires a complete undermining of rationality on the side of TSP. But who would have thought that some nation could sponsor events like 26/11 or 9/11 and get away with it. And every time they get away with it, and somehow get rewarded, reinforcing the bad behavior. The Zaid Hamid type thought process would have to become more prevalent in their power circle; but then why would it not? It is not that big a leap from Qadrification, especially if they nurture some not so insignificant probability of getting away with it.

Scenario B: Mumbai redux
This is the more tricky one: What if they lob a few at critical areas, and then claim a rogue element did it and beg for mercy. And then bring upon the weight of its masters to deter India. If India threatens to retaliates, then they say that they have no option but to use the 100 to save themselves.

There will be forces within India who will want to show restrain. The fifth column and those who are afraid of retaliation. And there will be those who will say that Lahore is just 50 miles away and Pindi is just 60 miles etc.
It will literally be India against the World when it comes to restraining her.
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The reason I bring up the significance of the scenario, is because, I do not expect significant up-front preparation except for the key decision maker. Indian leaders are too busy to afford the mind-share, the money necessary to plan for such a scenario.

However, in Scenario B, there can be pro-active actions taken before India is forced to take on the world.

[Karna_A]

Some thoughts:

Considering that after a nuclear fall-out in India, it would be important to save

1. our children
2. our civilization - the Dharmik leadership,
3. our experts - medical doctors, scientists, engineers, academics
4. our state apparatus - Government ministers, Indian Parliamentarians, administrators
5. our security infrastructure - the Army, police, etc.

it is important that our children are best placed to take care of themselves in case of a nuclear fall-out. As such, IMHO, it is important that our children be given some survival training course every year from 9th class onwards.

TSP will only use nooks on India if the TSP thinks that retaliation is against TSP only.
But why would India just use on TSP? TSP is to India what Mexico is to Unkil.

Any mass nook attack on India will result in a hardcore fanatic right wing military government taking power that will ask for revenge against the West Asian ideology that spawned the attack in first place. Working from a no-name Andaman island, it will order revenge that will make most of Arabian peninsula into radioactive quicksand for next 1K year. The world oil supply be from ME will be made as zero as India takes down everyone with them.
The real India will still survive in its 700K villages.

This is what scares TSP that their foolishness will kill their ideology since anyway they luv the ideology more than their country.
Its precisely for this irrational response reason there will never be any mass nook attack by TSP, but one or two JDAM are possible.

[shiv]

The path to escalation where Pakistan could launch a 50 nuke attack on India is worth exploring. I do agree with assessments that such a scenario would be unlikely, but not for any reasons that make me happy.

My worst nightmare would not be a 100 nuke war, but more on the lines of be something I wrote ages ago which many will recall - the Pakistani nuclear attack on Jingorampur. A single nuclear bomb out of the blue is something that could fail to cause the desired response.

"Massive blast in Jingorampur"

"A mysterious blast has devastated large areas of Jingorampur. The blast which occurred at 10 AM caused the ground to shake and people in surrounding villages reported seeing a bright flash. People ran out their houses suspecting that an Earthquake had occurred.

The district officials in the nearby city of Whacknagar said that although all communication had been cut off with Jingorampur - there was nothing to "be concerned about. This is a common occurrence due to power failures in Summer. The official said everything was under control. He confirmed that an earthquake could have occurred as the town was near a seismic zone - but there were no reports of any deaths so far."

A few hours later..

"Jingorampur flattened"

Thousands of people have been killed in what appears to have been a massive earthquake in Jingorampur..relief efforts are on..The central government is seized of the matter and an ex gratia payment of Rs 10,000 for the families of the bereaved has been announced."

The next day

"Death and misery in Jingorampur Quake"

"Eyewitnesss reported a blast and many people have been severely burned. Even people on fields have been killed. "I was reminded of pictures of the tsunami" said one witness. Jingorampur is located 400 Km from the coast. and a tsunami has been ruled out."

Some people have blamed the Army which had an ammunition dump in the area. An army rescue team member denied this. Asked why the Army team were seen wearing protective suits and masks the response was because the disaster was caused by a nuclear bomb explosion"


A day later..

"Has Jingorampur been nuked?"

"Reports from the Army and defence ministry sate that the disaster was caused by a nuclear explosion. NGOs were quick to blame the Atomic Energy Commission in India which is known to have a poor safety record.

A demonstration in Delhi to protest against slow relief efforts was lathi charged by the police. One protester blamed Pakistan for the disaster. This was rejected by the minister of state for lame excuses. Anti national elements of the right wing are trying to harm the peace process."

One week later...

"It has been confirmed that Jingorampur has been devastated by a nuclear bomb. A high power governmental enquiry has been constituted, headed by retired chief justice Blahblah to try and establish the source of the bomb. In the meantime the government has asked the people to maintain communal harmony. It thanked the government of Pakistan for its offer of aid, and rejected reports in the US media that a rogue Pakistani nuclear bomb had been exploded. "The US has so many bombs - it could have been a US bomb" said a minister - not wishing to be named""

Four days later

"Sehwag dropped from Cricket tour of Australia due to injury"
"Price of kerosene not to be raised even as Oil prices rise to $120 a barrel"
"TV returns to Jingopura - the first signs of normality"..

Nevertheless I will try and see if I can conjure up a possible route of escalation

[Samudragupta]

This is a classic Paki mentality....

a) Launch a full scale nuclear attack on all major Indian cities immediately.
b) Mobilize the whole FATA population and send them to Jammu and Kashmir to fight the troops there.
With chaos in the whole sub-continent and nuclear Armageddon in both countries India will definitely be dismembered.
Pakistan can be repopulated later with immigrants from other Muslim countries.
The question is whether India will be repopulated again or not.

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