2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

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chaanakya
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by chaanakya »

sanku ji I have been following the debate, very elaborate and technical in nature at times , here on brf and elsewhere.

All said and done, I feel your point is valid and needs serious consideration here, rather than pointing out that technology is sound and it is "the answer". It could be or not.

I had some occasion to interact with Japanese energy officials in charge of policy etc. I had asked them about their tilt towards nuclear energy as it forms major part of their energy mix. They have this fixation with 1971-72 when oil prices delivered terminal shocks to japanese economy. It is a watershed year for them. This forced them to favour nuclear as dependence on imports is quite less.
On the nuclear safety issues they were quite confident. I am sure that they have managed so admirably till now is all due to their meticulous preparation and following them to the letter. But then nature has its own way of working and all best laid plans of men are put to test.

I feel sad for them and wish them well. I know they would come out of it and achieve greater heights. But radiation effects are long term and , even now not fully understood. Studies pointed out by you , again , deserve serious thought.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

Thank you Sir, much obliged, truly speaking.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Have not seen all the messages here, and I don’t want to derail the thread but I have to comment on various statements like:
Sanku wrote:
Singha wrote:I hope it doesn’t blow, apart from the horrible radiation and deaths, the world economy will suffer a massive blow too.
Only a matter of time Sir, a inevitable outcome of underplaying the real issues when there was time still...
Sir such a faith is really touching but IMO this is like the faith certain generals had..about planting their flag on Lal Kila that it was “only a matter of time”

As to being “proven correct day by day” and “I told you so”… how much has exactly happened till date?
.
How many “deaths” due to “horrible radiation? (Hint less, much less, than people die, say in Mumbai rail accidents in a single day)…and sir you might as well wait for that “blow up” but I don’t think its going to happen (but then I don’t believe that a certain flag in Lal Kila will be planted in “only a matter of time”)

As to your post about “I told you later” and invoking the MAN from Chernobyl’s expertise..IMHO that makes Zaid Hamid analysis (Ajaml=amar singh) look genius… For crying out loud, the people “in charge of Chernobyl” did not even know (or cared) (even after days/weeks) to know that milk given to children from the cows grazing on local grass contained very high dose of radio-active Iodine… They did not even evacuated local people (for days).. or were able (or cared) to measure the radiation levels (Hint: they were MILLIONS of time higher than present level around the Japan plant) to tell the fire-fighters to limit their exposure.

(To worship such experts and take their expert analysis on this situation is, as I said, akin to listening Jihadi analysis about unfolding 26/11)

Folks – Honestly this kind of talk is silly. I find it very offensive.
Just my opinion only...
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

>> Hint less, much less, than people die, say in Mumbai rail accidents in a single day

when posts like this start coming in response to yours, you know that the point is already made.

I am not surprised people find it offensive, most facts on the grounds which don't go according established anglo-sphere views of what the world must be (not what it is) is offensive to.

And yes Russian experts are Zaid Hamid (the fact that he works for Austrian govt now as their expert probably missed totally) he has to be how can he be not? After all only GE experts on this are to be believed.

Pathetic is the word that comes to mind.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Again folks if you recall I asked please don't indulge in polemics in this thread.

Thanks, ramana
------------
In the NYT graphic note the color of the cloud when it moves over North America. The head of radiology and health physics at UC Davis came on radio and said you get more radiation due to cosmic rays in a direct flgith from SFO to NYT than that. And he also told about eating a banana a day(b e d) that AmberG told us.

----------
Sanku, The Japanese are fighting the fires and its US (CNN) and French experts who are feeding the rumors.
While it may look all professional France too has an axe to grind in this issue. They are pointing to issues with BWRs which are US design. They have their own PWR design made by Areva. And this incident will effect the future of nuke power plants the world over. So its not all pure and simple.

I went back to my book on nuke power plant safety. There is no way the reactor core in a BWR will explode. So singha take it easy. It can melt but won't explode. Any hydrogen formed due to dissociation will escape now that the containment is breached.

And even the chance of melting is remote if they keep cooling it as they are doing it.
---------------
BTW Chernobyl reactor was different. It had no containment structure. It was under a totalitarian regime that had no need to report any of tis actison to anybody.
So lets get that out of the discussion. Its interesting but is not a parallel.

------------------

To me the silence of GE is deafening. Its their design and yet they are no where in the picture.
--------------------------
If an accident like this happens in India with imported reactors one can expect the same non-response.
Its the fault of the poor darkies. Lets rush them some blankets by ship and justify the military budget.

And issue statements that undercut the authority of the people fighting the disaster.
----------------
One big lesson will be the idea of storing spent fuel without processing it is a big mistake.

This idea is to appease the NPA lobby (in and outside govt) in US that fears even after many treaties and inspections that people will make weapons. At same time thesee turds want to sell nuke power plants to the countries and make money!

-----------
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

Ramana-ji; I agree with you that French could probably be hoping to score a point, however do note that its not only the French who are worried, surely all couldnt have an axe to grind?

Now even Japanese are speaking out
Katsuhiko Ishibashi, a seismology professor at Kobe University, has said Japan's history of nuclear accidents stems from an overconfidence in plant engineering. In 2006, he resigned from a government panel on reactor safety, saying the review process was rigged and "unscientific."
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... z1Gsd6bk00

It is the fault of Japanese, but the real fault is that they listened to the US folks.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Its really the commercial interests in US that is the root cause.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

ramana wrote:Its really the commercial interests in US that is the root cause.
Ramana-ji Bramha Chellany was making a point that in their hour of need, all their allies are safely missing in action; so much so for IAEA and other coalitions of international groupings.

Just like "profits for Pvt sector and cleanup for govt" mindset amply on display (at BRF) it seems that "alliance to sell stuff, and independence to clean up the muck when stuff breaks" is the motto of these Commercial intrests.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Lalmohan »

i'm with ramana on this
lets not get too hung up about our own personal soapboxes
lets seek out and analyse the facts
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

Lalmohan wrote: lets seek out and analyse the facts
Which is not done by constantly calling all reports pointing to the matter false. There would be no reason for anyone to get on a soap box if "oh its all media overplaying onlee" was not being repeated overly.

Why shoot the messenger?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

OK. So what are the lessons you see in this disaster that are applicable to India?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Sanku »

ramana wrote:OK. So what are the lessons you see in this disaster that are applicable to India?
Sir; the ones also on Nuke thread

1) Use only AHWR/PHWR.
2) Always reprocess fuel
3) Drill for the worst, regularly, evacuation plans etc etc.
4) Have a independent watch dog over all nuclear entities, basically two equally powerful Nuclear Czars to maintain checks and balances
5) Have public (under RTI) safety audit of all plants which are in civilian space (which IAEA can access)
6) Have a massive public awareness and safety equipment distributed in open public space around the plant. The people around the plant should KNOW transparently all key parameters that effects them.

===========

PS> Dont trust IAEA and other alliances one single phooti kaudi; for any practical help; none of them will be remotely visible after the yellowcake hits the fan. They are only snoops to inform others of where you are. They have zero utility in terms of actually helping practically.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

From India Forum:


LINK


Fukushima Daiichi The reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant are in stable condition and are being cooled with seawater, but workers at the plant continue efforts to add cooling water to fuel pools at reactors 3 and 4.

The status of the reactors at the site is as follows:

Reactor 1’s primary containment is believed to be intact and the reactor is in a stable condition. Seawater injection into the reactor is continuing.

Reactor 2 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The reactor’s primary containment may not have been breached, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and World Association of Nuclear Operators officials said on Thursday.

Access problems at the site have delayed connection of a temporary cable to restore off-site electricity. The connection will provide power to the control rod drive pump, instrumentation, batteries and the control room. Power has not been available at the site since the earthquake on March 11.

Reactor 3 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The primary containment is believed to be intact. Pressure in the containment has fluctuated due to venting of the reactor containment structure.

TEPCO officials say that although one side of the concrete wall of the fuel pool structure has collapsed, the steel liner of the pool remains intact, based on aerial photos of the reactor taken on March 17. The pool still has water providing some cooling for the fuel; however, helicopters dropped water on the reactor four times during the morning (Japan time) on March 17. Water also was sprayed at reactor 4 using high-pressure water cannons.

Reactors 5 and 6 were both shut down before the quake occurred. Primary and secondary containments are intact at both reactors. Temperature instruments in the spent fuel pools at reactors 5 and 6 are operational, and temperatures are being maintained at about 62 degrees Celsius. TEPCO is continuing efforts to restore power at reactor 5.

Fukushima Daini All four reactors at the Fukushima Daini plant have reached cold shutdown conditions with normal cooling being maintained using residual heat removal (RHR) systems.

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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Prasad »

A basic question : What exactly is the role of the IAEA in times of such crises? Do they offer any help at all and if they do what is the protocol?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

They make sure the fuel is not diverted for weapons. Thats all.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Bade »

Well things that have failed here very likely are the traditional and very old engineering standards in wake of the double whammy of quake and tsunami. The fallout is on all things radioactive though !

When engineers are claiming they can design structures for even a 10.0 Richter scale quake (with large ground acceleration locally) one begins to wonder. All other reactor design (BWR vs PHWR etc) related issues will side track from the real root cause, shortcoming in traditional engineering, quality control etc.

Note, that even during normal operations, in one of the links given above bursting pipes was quoted, or damaged pressure vessel at manufacture. These are engineering issues aren't they more than just plant design or type.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by saip »

Ramna: the deafening silence of GE could be because they are petrified of thought of being held liable for all damages. I know heard the Japanese law is somewhat different and only the operator is liable but you never know with American courts and in This instance GE might think it is safer not to say anything now than to say something now and regret it later.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by SwamyG »

Sanku wrote:>> Hint less, much less, than people die, say in Mumbai rail accidents in a single day

when posts like this start coming in response to yours, you know that the point is already made.
I agree, it is surprising to see those kind of posts. Imagine a BRFite using a similar line of argument for the Mumbai attacks. He would be torn apart and banned.

Marten saar: I do not think any government can be totally honest with its citizens. So if my words implied something contrary to that opinion I either blame my writing or your understanding :-)

Sanku: Now, I understand your reply to me in Nukkad.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Dont know why it was in nukkad!

X-Post...
krishnan wrote:http://www.sify.com/news/China-freezes- ... idget_news
Beijing: China has suspended approval for nuclear power stations so as to revise safety standards in the wake of recent explosions at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant.

According to the statement released after State Council meeting, presided over by Premier Wen Jiabao, the Council has asked relevant departments to do safety checks at existing plants.

Choppers dump water on Japan nuclear reactor

The statement by State council also said security is their top priority in developing nuclear power plants, The Xinhua reports.

The statement said all nuke reactors in China are safe and the country remains unaffected by radioactive leakages from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which was exploded after massive earthquake and Tsunami.

According to the statement before revised safety standards are approved, all new nuclear power plants, including pre-construction works, should be suspended.

IAEA chief calls situation 'very serious', heads to Japan

The State Council also asked country's environmental regulator, the National Nuclear Safety Administration, to step up monitoring of radioactive substances and issue alerts timely.

China would continue help Japanese authorities to move Chinese citizens in Japan to safety, the statement added.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

oh BTW, The UC Davis Prof of Radiology was wondering why US folks were taking KI pills as its effective only just before or after rad exposure and isnt an immunization pill and expected rad concentration on the cloud moving to US is negligible.

You get more exposure to cosmic rays by flying non-stop from SFO to JFK due to altitude or the banana which has potassium which has an isotope K40. I might not have got this one right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Lalmohan »

Sanku wrote:
Lalmohan wrote: lets seek out and analyse the facts
Which is not done by constantly calling all reports pointing to the matter false. There would be no reason for anyone to get on a soap box if "oh its all media overplaying onlee" was not being repeated overly.

Why shoot the messenger?
no one has called any report false, but has expressed scepticism about them
you are equally vociferous in calling all 'official reports' false! you are happily quoting all manner of what-if's and hypotheses from all manner of people, so frankly that is just pot calling the kettle black
and no one has shot you!! (yet! ;))
lets get the facts on the table please
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Theo_Fidel »

Suppiah wrote:Let us hope and pray this does the job...if not essentially as per UK nuke head, in 24-48 hrs (of which 12 are gone) we are looking at Chernobyl, god forbid.
No way this becomes Chernobyl. That's a whole different category by itself. This is crazy talk.

Remember in Chernobyl about 10 tonnes of actual fuel itself was vaporized in the explosion and sent into the atmosphere.
ramana wrote:One big lesson will be the idea of storing spent fuel without processing it is a big mistake.
This was always recognized.

Not all spent fuel can be processed. Processing costs run from $2000 - $10,000 per ton. The Japanese, Koreans and even most of EU was counting on Yucca mountain. That is why they were sitting on this stuff, till Yucca activated, thought that looks extremely unlikely now...
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

My next lesson would be for fire fighting departments to know how to fight reactor fires/coolant loss heating issues.
Understand water sources could be lost and hoses might not connect and helicopter/aircraft dumps could be just spitting on the fire.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Amber G. »

Sorry did not have (yet) the time to read all brf posts ... but can't resist a brief comment...
The head of radiology and health physics at UC Davis came on radio and said you get more radiation due to cosmic rays in a direct flgith from SFO to NYT than that. And he also told about eating a banana a day(b e d) that AmberG told us.
Funny that you mentioned this.., I was talking to my son (he now lives in the West coast) and it seems that he also happened to have listened to that part ..and was amused. He did ask me if I "had anything to do with it :)" (He - my son - went to MIT but he heard the term from me many years before his MIT days).. BTW this term was (is ?) also used in a text book for a course called "physics for future presidents" taught in Berkley..
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Yeah my ears popped when he said banana and I told my son who was commuting with me about you!

Are you into ferro-magnetism?
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by saip »

What is happening? The workers are said to be on Kamikazi mission according to CNN
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Were they yelling Banzai!

CNN should stop using sterotyping for heroic efforts.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by arnab »

ramana wrote:From India Forum:


LINK


Fukushima Daiichi The reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant are in stable condition and are being cooled with seawater, but workers at the plant continue efforts to add cooling water to fuel pools at reactors 3 and 4.

The status of the reactors at the site is as follows:

Reactor 1’s primary containment is believed to be intact and the reactor is in a stable condition. Seawater injection into the reactor is continuing.

Reactor 2 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The reactor’s primary containment may not have been breached, Tokyo Electric Power Co. and World Association of Nuclear Operators officials said on Thursday.

Access problems at the site have delayed connection of a temporary cable to restore off-site electricity. The connection will provide power to the control rod drive pump, instrumentation, batteries and the control room. Power has not been available at the site since the earthquake on March 11.

Reactor 3 is in stable condition with seawater injection continuing. The primary containment is believed to be intact. Pressure in the containment has fluctuated due to venting of the reactor containment structure.

TEPCO officials say that although one side of the concrete wall of the fuel pool structure has collapsed, the steel liner of the pool remains intact, based on aerial photos of the reactor taken on March 17. The pool still has water providing some cooling for the fuel; however, helicopters dropped water on the reactor four times during the morning (Japan time) on March 17. Water also was sprayed at reactor 4 using high-pressure water cannons.

Reactors 5 and 6 were both shut down before the quake occurred. Primary and secondary containments are intact at both reactors. Temperature instruments in the spent fuel pools at reactors 5 and 6 are operational, and temperatures are being maintained at about 62 degrees Celsius. TEPCO is continuing efforts to restore power at reactor 5.

Fukushima Daini All four reactors at the Fukushima Daini plant have reached cold shutdown conditions with normal cooling being maintained using residual heat removal (RHR) systems.

So is Sanku ji's prediction correct? ('The meltdown is a question of WHEN not IF?')
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by arnab »

Sanku wrote:Sorry boss Anglo-Saxon media is UNDERPLAYING and not overplaying the issue. For chernobyl

THE ABOVE STATEMENT IS A LIE (this is a partial list of DISTANT events)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

* Down syndrome (trisomy 21). In West Berlin, Germany, prevalence of Down syndrome (trisomy 21) peaked 9 months following the main fallout.[ 11, 12] .

* Chromosomal aberrations. * []
From the same link (just to get a complete view)
An international assessment of the health effects of the Chernobyl accident is contained in a series of reports by the United Nations Scientific Committee of the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR).[74] UNSCEAR was set up as a collaboration between various UN bodies, including the World Health Organisation, after the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to assess the long-term effects of radiation on human health.

UNSCEAR has conducted 20 years of detailed scientific and epidemiological research on the effects of the Chernobyl accident. Apart from the 57 direct deaths in the accident itself, UNSCEAR originally predicted up to 4,000 additional cancer cases due to the accident.[4] However, the latest UNSCEAR reports suggest that these estimates were overstated.[75] In addition, the IAEA states that there has been no increase in the rate of birth defects or abnormalities, or solid cancers (such as lung cancer) corroborating UNSCEAR's assessments
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by ramana »

Arnab, I already cautioned people not to go polemic in this thread. The request is for you too.

Thanks, ramana
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by vina »

Yawn.. With Sanku Maharaj Ji blowing the bull horn here, rationality and objectivity go out of the window and some background drone , nay noise, about some pet fears,phobias,agendas and positions (missionary ?) get increasing airtime and generate huge amount of noise, tending to drown out any sanity. But such is life. Hit the mental ignore button on that folks. Lets get back to objectively discussing what happened and do some "analysis" that can stand up to reason.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by shiv »

Well I don't know what polemics means but since we have veered so far let me recount what was stated about Chernobyl in Bilayat where I was when the meltdown occurred. Actually its a typical Brit joke. about Chernobyl fallout :D

"Do you know why you mustn't wear Russian underpants?"
"No why?"
"Because yer-knob'll fall out"
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Fotu of a helicopter collecting water from the ocean

http://epaper.indianexpress.com/IE/IEH/ ... 03_009.jpg

Image

Aftershocks from Japan

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commen ... h3/English
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Video: Update on the Nuclear Crisis in Japan (Update on Japan with Olli Heinonen of Harvard University, Frank von Hippel of Princeton University and David Sanger of 'The New York Times')

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11536
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Radiation Spread Seen; Frantic Repairs Go On

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world ... intel.html
The first readings from American data-collection flights over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in northeastern Japan show that the worst contamination has not spread beyond the 19-mile range of highest concern established by Japanese authorities.
American officials said their biggest worry was that a frenetic series of efforts by the Japanese military to get water into four of the plant’s six reactors — including using water cannons and firefighting helicopters that dropped water but appeared to largely miss their targets — showed few signs of working.

...

“What you are seeing are desperate efforts — just throwing everything at it in hopes something will work,” said one American official with long nuclear experience who would not speak for attribution. “Right now this is more prayer than plan.

...

Experts met in Tokyo to compare notes. The United States, with Japanese permission, began to put the intelligence-collection aircraft over the site, in hopes of gaining a view for Washington as well as its allies in Tokyo that did not rely on the announcements of officials from the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates Fukushima Daiichi.

American officials say they suspect that the company has consistently underestimated the risk and moved too slowly to contain the damage.

...

So far the officials saw no signs of dropping temperatures. And the Web site of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, made it clear that there were no readings at all from some critical areas.

Part of the American effort, by satellites and aircraft, is to identify the hot spots, something the Japanese have not been able to do in some cases. {<-- see this part}

...

The sensors on the instrument pod are good at mapping radioactive isotopes, like cesium 137, which has been detected around the nuclear plant and has a half-life of 30 years. In high doses, it can cause acute radiation sickness. Lower doses can alter cellular function, leading to an increased risk of cancer.

Cesium 137 can enter the body through many foods, including milk.

...


Jeffrey G. Lewis, an intelligence specialist at the Monterey Institute, a research center, noted that the Japanese assessment of Reactor No. 4 at the Daiichi complex seemed to depend in part on visual surveillance by helicopter pilots.

...

American officials have also worried that the spent-fuel pool at that reactor has run dry, exposing the rods. Japanese officials, however, have concentrated much of their recent efforts on Reactor No. 3, which has been intermittently releasing radiation from what the authorities believe may be a ruptured containment vessel around the reactor. Temperatures at that reactor’s spent fuel pool are also high.

Perhaps because of the difficulties experienced Thursday trying to accurately drop water from helicopters, the Japanese military announced Friday that it was halting those efforts for at least a day.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by Singha »

quite surprising the worlds most advanced country in robotics does not have remotely controlled 'spiders' to go in and transmit imagery in such lethal areas.
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by abhishek_sharma »

Image
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Re: 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami - News and Analysis

Post by svinayak »

Early in the week talked to a friend who is a dir n the mkt dept of Sony. For few days he had no sleep and they were working to protect their employees in Japan from the fall out.
He said Japan is on its knees and it was really hard on the people. he could not tell much about the impact but sony supply chain will not get affected since most of the production is in China.
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