India selects Typhoon and Rafale for MMRCA shortlist

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Apr 2011 03:54

I am happy GoI has chosen EF - I have always called for this. But lets see what we can bully out of them. I know France are ready to do ANYTHING to sell the Rafale and I mean anything. But I'd like them to replace our M2Ks with some Rafale's instead of MRCA.

I am sure another important negotiation point is offsets, then assembly parts, source codes and whether we can get access to its engine tech, perhaps TVC tech that could be transferred to LCA, A2G is weak - but maybe we can deal with this togetherand we can learn together.

I hope we drive a HARD bargain because a lot of people are desparate for our money.

Wasnt the EJ200 in the running to be the engine for LCA? I hear great opinions on this engine. Will be good for LCAtoo. A lot of people are upset that the US engine was chosen over the EJ200 as EJ200 offered single crystal blade tech or something of that sort.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 28 Apr 2011 04:16

If the Rafale is indeed being chosen, we should go for the two seater B variant. A truly beautiful, omni-role platform.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 28 Apr 2011 04:25

I like Rafalee than the EF

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 28 Apr 2011 05:00

It gotta b Rafale

you can kiss katrina, but not shatru

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 05:01

m2k stores can be used in Rafale as well.

jee.. why did rak sahib brought in shatru?

Ashwini · Post by **Ashwini** » 28 Apr 2011 05:23

putnanja wrote:
KrishG wrote:I will be very happy if Amirkhan aircraft have indeed been kicked out.
Never underestimate the power of khan. They managed to derail the process in Brazil, and they have heavily influenced other countries too. Like they say, it ain't over till it is over. Given the employment benefit that the US expects from this deal, and the clout US has with the PMO, I wouldn't write off the teens yet

^ This & :

sum wrote:^^ Only problem i forsee with the Europeans making it is that MoF will as usual put a spanner and start pointing at the costs and need for re-bid/re-quote etc since the Frenchies wont come cheap...

Are the only things that pain me now.

Please no more stupid-ass re-tendering BS, if the US derails this (and they just may) then hell with MMRCA.
Wait for Tejas to be ready, PAK-FA, M2K Upgrades (already final) and more Rambhas.

However, just thinking Optimistically for a moment though

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Apr 2011 05:38

Muppalla wrote:Sorry - Rafale will NOT be selected.
India will end up with Typhoon. India may have a longer term strategy and vision. Yankees are out one more time.

To be fair - unkil is selling some big ticket items - C-130, P-8 and no matter what the media speculate I am definite the C-17s will come.

andy B · Post by **andy B** » 28 Apr 2011 05:52

In light of this great decission I am gonna try and get as many articles as I can for the Tiffy and the Squall should have em up by wkend.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 28 Apr 2011 05:59

Rupesh wrote:you can kiss katrina, but not shatru

SaiK wrote:jee.. why did rak sahib brought in shatru?

Okay, Okay...how about Shatru ki Beti...Sonakshi?

srai · Post by **srai** » 28 Apr 2011 06:03

shiv wrote:
Muppalla wrote:Sorry - Rafale will NOT be selected.
India will end up with Typhoon. India may have a longer term strategy and vision. Yankees are out one more time.
To be fair - unkil is selling some big ticket items - C-130, P-8 and no matter what the media speculate I am definite the C-17s will come.

Signed/Guaranteed,
6 x C-130J -> $1 billion
8 (+ 4) x P-8I -> $3.5 billion
10 x C-17 -> $4 billion
22 x AH-64D -> $1 billion
-------------------------------------
Total: $9.5 billion

Potential/Highly Likely,
6 x C-130J (options) -> $1 billion
6 x C-17 (options) -> $2.5 billion
4 x P-8I (options) -> $1 billion
15 x CH-47F -> $750 million
16 x C-27J -> $1 billion
-------------------------------------
Total: $6.25 billion

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 28 Apr 2011 06:47

srai: You need to amend the list. The C-17 Globemaster is costing a cool $5.8 billion for 10 aircraft.

Decks cleared for $5.8-bn C-17 Globemaster deal

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 28 Apr 2011 06:48

Your firms are out of fighter contract fray, India tells US
Indian Express

saket · Post by **saket** » 28 Apr 2011 06:48

US Envoy Tim Roemer to NDTV: I am resigning, returning to Washington

Fallout of F-16/F-18 exit ??

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Apr 2011 06:55

No could be the changes in US govt personnel already announced.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Apr 2011 07:07

shiv wrote: To be fair - unkil is selling some big ticket items - C-130, P-8 and no matter what the media speculate I am definite the C-17s will come.

US probably is not looking at just commercial value and it wanted more deeper involvement in India's defense and strategic affairs using all means. Nuke deal with mixed results was the start but the juggernaut was stopped by some mean Indians on the MMRCA. India will keep buying the US stuff to keep the US firms in good humor so that they will openup more in terms of tech transfers. It is a lesson learnt from US perspective. There will be a fallout for US not able to sell the jets. We will see that slowly but surely.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 07:15

Well, we will have to go per contractual agreements. The fact that we didn't sign CISMOA and other end user agreements means we respect those legal bindings. If USA is thinking of lessons, then it should know where it stands and how it respects as well those legal understandings, and what it means.

If they talk about fallouts, then you know who are the real losers. It is always customer who wins, no matter what value of the business deal is.

Political twisting of words and tit for tat-ing sounds very pakish, that I doubt uncle will chase after.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 28 Apr 2011 07:24

Dont worry US-India trade will go up significantly and widely recompense for this minor cost. Its good for US that they didn't win for all their four and five letter agreements will lead to mis-perception. They are not ready for post WII and Cold War.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 07:32

indeed.. imagine the amount of paki pressure would be there to match - perhaps asking few billions more from uncle's kitty to arm up against India, where Uncle is already caught in a quandary like a cat on the wall in afpak region.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Apr 2011 07:42

Well it is a great news that the Euro canards have been shortlisted. The question that I have is, will the IAF insist on the Astra to be integrated as the standard BVR AAM for them. Or will they accept the standard BVR AAMs promised by the vendor.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Apr 2011 07:44

Pratyush wrote:Well it is a great news that the Euro canards have been shortlisted. The question that I have is, will the IAF insist on the Astra to be integrated as the standard BVR AAM for them. Or will they accept the standard BVR AAMs promised by the vendor.

There is no operational Astra as of now so there is no question of the IAF "insisting" on it.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Apr 2011 07:46

ramana wrote:Dont worry US-India trade will go up significantly and widely recompense for this minor cost. Its good for US that they didn't win for all their four and five letter agreements will lead to mis-perception. They are not ready for post WII and Cold War.

Absolutely. The US may not get a hand in among the fighters but the orders for other planes are nevertheless significant - I think the total number of C-17 will exceed that of Poodlestan. Another "likely" deal is Chinook IMO

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 28 Apr 2011 07:49

shiv wrote:
Pratyush wrote:Well it is a great news that the Euro canards have been shortlisted. The question that I have is, will the IAF insist on the Astra to be integrated as the standard BVR AAM for them. Or will they accept the standard BVR AAMs promised by the vendor.
There is no operational Astra as of now so there is no question of the IAF "insisting" on it.

What about 5 years down the line?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 07:57

source code control will take care of it.

Rak, doesn't katrina continue to do open aam sutra? euro fighter btw, is retractable and clean.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Apr 2011 07:58

Pratyush wrote:
What about 5 years down the line?

The way I understand it is as follows. The IAF looks for compatibility of pylons and avionics bus with existing and future weapons. As long as any weapon can be accommodated on a pylon_and_the data bus is compatible with the IAF standard, then the weapons can be used. There is an international military standard for this - or else weapons will not be bought by many nations. Russia too advertises its newer platforms as conforming to a standard and even Bundaar uses the standard.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 08:15

all imho:

Rafale pros
[1] single govt to deal with, which is friendly to india (friendly to anyone who pays them money)
[2] french are unlikely to be armtwisted by sher khan in a emergency situation
[3] quality is good as with most things french in defence, costly but good and durable
[4] complete family of A2A and A2G weapons already qualified incl some of paveway
[5] well regarded ECM kit
[6] IRST + TV sensors are working
[7] AASM proven with a 55km combat launch in benghazi protection zone
[8] commonality with any future IN rafale-M purchase
[9] its not a slouch in A2A as is alleged, just not overly endowed with a 14" shlong as the EF is in that regime..more like 10.5" er
[10] CFT is there, and 3 drop tanks imparts a massive combat radius for strike or A2A loiter missions
[11] has been in service longer, less chance of surprises
[12] low RCS blended air intakes
[13] style style armani lagerfeld style

Rafale cons
[1] narrower choice of weapons leads to no price pressure on vendor. no choices like asraam, iris-T, python5, amraam, brimstone
[2] weaker engine than EF , allegedly less high tech (though M88-4-EDE) might address that
[3] OSF IRST needs a refresh and funding for OSF2
[4] smallish nose gates the aperture of any radar
[5] aesa radar still in development , but seemingly funded by french govt?

EF pros
[1] great kinetic energy in A2A using semi conformal amraam/meteor for reduced RCS
[2] EADS has a massive and wide linkages to all defence industries and can help in lots of areas
[3] opens channels of +ve influence into 4 important countries and trade/tot partners and their political/defence elites
[4] quality is good
[5] huge potential choice of weapons , incl american (though some still to be qualified like brimstone)
[6] Pirate IRST is there (though not sure of its operational status)
[7] engine is allegedly more high tech and brings both RR and MTU into our game
[8] big nose for big radar
[9] folding AAR probe means no rcs from there

EF cos
[1] A2G full capability for RAF said to be 8 yrs out
[2] chances of holier than thou posturing by germany, and sher khan triggered psyops by UK.
[3] no proven A2G track record
[4] CFT not in operational use, though may have been tested
[5] no Govt funds yet for Captor-E radar
[6] probably more % of critical US made components, though rafale for sure has some too

common factors
[1] get it into agreement that integration of israeli/french/indian/US weapons will be supported from OEM side fully (sudarshan, astra1, helina, python5, crystal maze, spice/griffon LGB, paveway for a start)
[2] access to "source codes" and "modification of threat libraries"
[3] 360 spherical JSF/F18 style MAWS
[4] a new next-gen IRST
[5] Indic FDL and ECM integration
[6] help with our fighter aesa radar effort with an eye to Tejas mk2 and AMCA
[7] meteor & brimstone must come on both via OEM effort

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 08:22

porting brahmos or a similar A2S n-tipped wala might be an option that could be considered at a later stage. Both can do.

singha, on the captor-e funding :-
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6111394

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 08:30

uh oh does not sound too good - no overt funding commitment, just a "carry one as best as you can on one leg"

No one is saying yet how the next phase of work will be paid for but as the budgetary situation has continued to decline in Europe in the last year, analysts here reckon industry may have had a key role to play on funding this time round as well.

the french govt atleast gave a $900 mil bailout pkg to dassault and some more to ariane/snecma...

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 28 Apr 2011 08:30

Would Dassault be in a better position to supply the brand new Rafale's quicker than the EADS considering the lack of other obligations or international contracts?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 08:31

I think some of the member EF nations might be happy to reduce their commitment nos and give up slots on production pipeline to India ! saudis got some UK slots for example.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 28 Apr 2011 08:33

Singha wrote:............

Good summary!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2011 08:37

LRDE has already started making/delivery of desi T/Rs for LCA AESA. I did read sometime back EADS has the GaN design and conformal antennas already since 2009, but funding them further was an issue.

Perhaps, they might change directions now by allowing India be the r&d center for it, and including India being the equal partner.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 08:39

we have already missed the bus on the first couple generations of aesa (american fighters). if possible we should leap to GaN based design in MRCA (if vendor can deliver) since IOC for that will not be before 2015 for both the candidates. if not, atleast a powerful new GaA design matching the APG79 is a must.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 28 Apr 2011 08:41

No "official" word yet, just stratmag being pompous with "we can confirm..."?? Like they say, it ain't over till the fat lady sings and it appears that the fat lady (MoD) is merely clearing her throat.

We miss the best AESA and A2G/A2A weapons if we don't get the Shornet but the Rafale is a very close second in terms of strategic gain for IAF and our aero industry if there is meaningful ToT. I suppose the French are desperate enough to oblige and we should play hardball if we go the Rafale route. I pray to all the deities in all the lokas that we don't choose the Typhoon. It will be a nightmare to deal with those uptight, bickering euros, not to mention that pakis may already be flying it for the saudis.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 28 Apr 2011 08:47

go for rafale because of the synergies with kaveri-eco, assuming other factors are similar.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 09:01

+1. in terms of what can be delivered 48 months from contract sign, rafale is the better choice. shortcomings vs the EF's definitive tranche3 (which i think will not happen much unless KSA funds it heavy) can be worked out/around in various ways later.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Apr 2011 09:01

They're both good. Just QUICKLY buy 200 of either to equip the IAF with 10 squadrons!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2011 09:03

sir 200 planes is 13.5 squadrons

126 is 8 squadrons + 6 reserve

15 each.

@the prices being quoted, we can barely afford the original 126 , let alone 200 unless there is a IN buy of 60 rafale later for IAC2 and IAC3 airwings.

@ $100mil upfront for plane + some service pkg , its $12.5b initially
then lifecycle cost of spares, weapons, multiple engines, MLU will bring the "program cost" to maybe $50-60 bil over a 30yr cycle.

its the financial cake for whoever gets it - India sticks to the rules and pays on time, plus is starting to operate on large scale and high tech.

geeth · Post by **geeth** » 28 Apr 2011 09:09

My bet is on Rafale with a subsequent announcement in partnering for the AMCA project, at least to partly (if not all) to comply with offset clause.

If the news is true, I am greatly relieved to see that Unkeel and Mig 35 are out of the race.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Apr 2011 09:10

I'm assuming 20 planes per squadron, including some for training and hanger queens.