India-US Strategic News and Discussion

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 07:28

^^^"t is totally useless as USA is hellbent on being opposing to India strategically. As long as it keeps on singing that Pakistan is their need and it is just waste. "

"Pakistani and American officials said that General Petraeus’s selection could further inflame relations between the two nations, which are already at one of their lowest points, with recriminations over myriad issues aired publicly like never before.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/world ... us.html?hp

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 29 Apr 2011 07:46

Manny wrote:All the US has to do is stop putting the breaks on EU selling high tech weapons to China. EU would be selling everything on the planet to China.

In fact, all the US has to do is, indicate to India that it would not stop EU from selling high tech stuff to China.

Its not as if the anti-PRC arms embargo is in place for India's benefit. No, sir. Its to benefit unkil in particular and the west in general only. Kindly have no illusions on that score.

So sure, let the great khan go and lift the embargo on PRC. By all means. Lift anytech sanctions and restrictions while at it too. All to spite India only. It would be a classic case of what you call:

This is the strategy of cutting ones nose to spite the face

As for a pro-India lobby etc, tks to the Obama admin coming to power, most of the good work by the GWB admin was a lost cause anyway. India-US relations will develop based on converging interests sans arms-twisting. That alone is sustainable, even if slow.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2011 07:52

Cosmo_R wrote:^^^"t is totally useless as USA is hellbent on being opposing to India strategically. As long as it keeps on singing that Pakistan is their need and it is just waste. "

"Pakistani and American officials said that General Petraeus’s selection could further inflame relations between the two nations, which are already at one of their lowest points, with recriminations over myriad issues aired publicly like never before.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/world ... us.html?hp

The media is running a psyops to just show to the world that they are going to screw Pakis. In reality on the drawing board they will work on who could be sacrificiable and later how strategically they can corner India.

As long as they are in Af-Pak with Pak's help (real or made-up) there is no chance of Indo-strategic growth.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 29 Apr 2011 07:53

JE Menon wrote:Part of the game. They will understand, just as we understand that they have to supply weapons to Pakistan which Pakistan will use to kill Indians with, and I'm not talking about fancy F-16s and other big-ticket items.

+1. Absolutely.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 29 Apr 2011 08:36

Nothing positive in Indo-US ties since nuclear deal

But on a larger canvas, the Indian decision shows the level of deterioration in India-US relations. From the nuclear liability law onwards, things have not been positive on the India-US front. India believes it bent over backwards to accommodate US concerns during the nuclear deal and in its aftermath, as in the end-user verification issue. The US believed it got short shrift on India's nuclear liability law which makes it difficult for US companies to get into the Indian nuclear power sector.
:
The US, on the other hand, believes India has not kept up its part of the bargain after the nuclear deal. They believe they made a huge concession to India by overcoming the dissent in their own system to support India for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Sources in Washington said the US would probably walk back from that support.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 29 Apr 2011 09:03

^^^
who gives a sh** about UNSC? does anyone really believe that the structure of UN allows countries other than the initial power brokers to actually have some kind of an influence? what's the probability of UNSC seat enhancing India's security and interests? the downside is that entry into UNSC will become some kind of Holy Grail which will be used to arm twist India. i am personally of the opinion that UNSC seat doesn't matter to India. I am willing to change my view if presented by solid facts that UNSC seat can augment Indian interests. what do the BRF gurus think about this?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Apr 2011 09:15

+1 . its a useless trinket the giving of which will be used to armtwist concessions from us.

let GOTUS walk away from the issue with all speed - sooner the better. make it public, abuse GOI, threaten GOI ... even better.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 29 Apr 2011 09:24

Devesh Miyan,
IMHO, any international power sructure without us is wazibul Qatal. Destroy that instituion and watch the tamasha. Cant wait for the day when India will be able to use all left hand five fingers into UN Musharraf and tickle them to heart content.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Apr 2011 09:39

MRCA decision is revealing the MUTU types in media among others.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Apr 2011 09:47

remember the enron ceo rebecca mark threatening GOI that she would use the sovereign guarantee clause, complain to her buddies in GOTUS and seize Indian govt assets?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 29 Apr 2011 10:07

she made millions before enron chap 11, and made use of every capital oppty there.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 29 Apr 2011 10:13

ramana wrote:MRCA decision is revealing the MUTU types in media among others.

I would never classify Nitin Pai as a MUTU type, which is why I find his views on this subject perplexing to say the least. As much as I appreciate contrarian views.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Apr 2011 10:19

Prem wrote:Devesh Miyan,
IMHO, any international power sructure without us is wazibul Qatal. Destroy that instituion and watch the tamasha. Cant wait for the day when India will be able to use all left hand five fingers into UN Musharraf and tickle them to heart content.

Prem ji,
Sorry ji, but to the question Should India leave UN, if we don't get a veto seat in UNSC?, the BRFites have already answered with a NO!

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Apr 2011 10:43

This US admin has been acting in a manner that is just not condusive to the improvement in bilateral relations. First the review of all on going defecne deals with India and then when BHO was in Yndia, the the emphasis on deals was obscene. I for one am glad that Indian money cannot be used to subsedise the weapons for TSP. At least in this respect.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 Apr 2011 10:48

I would say give some other sops to the US to encourage them to do the right thing in Af-Pak. Defense imports from any foreign source are problematic, not only due to issues of spares, but also due to the dangers of Trojans or kill-switches. But if one can get tech transfer along with the purchase, then it may be tolerable.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 29 Apr 2011 13:21

Cosmo_R wrote:"Questioning whether these aircraft represented the best value for the IAF and the best investments for India overall, Mr. Tellis said to The Hindu that those in the U.S. who felt that India had settled for an aircraft over a strategic relationship would also conclude that “there is no reason why the administration should bend backwards to accommodate India.”

Mr. Tellis, formerly a senior advisor to the Ambassador at the U.S. embassy in New Delhi, a staff member of the National Security Council and Special Assistant to the President, also had critical words for the manner in which the decision was made and announced.

He said that it only made things worse given that “the GOI knew full well the importance the administration attached to this sale... [and] a quiet intimation of the coming decision would have helped.”

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 819298.ece

We can of course, dismiss Dr. Tellis as a 'tool' etc. but the truth is IMHO, he's right. The pro-India lobby has been weakened.

Everything I'm hearing is really worrying. This has the potential to undercut those who have expended time, money and effort to promote the strategic relationship. The anger is palpable.

Well, the stunning Carla Bruni or vivacious/zaftig Angela Merkel better be prepared to deliver item numbers ...

Really, select a relationship over fighter. What has Mr. Tellis been smoking? Mr Tellis what will happen when America turns fickle or worse provides Pakistan with exactly the same weapons which have been provided to India, thus negating the 10-11 USD Billion spent. India's strategic autonomy is very important and too crucial to be made dependent on some American whims. Did Mr Tellis really think that India was going to give life support to assembly line which produced the delivery vehicle for Paki nuke?
It is America or shall i say certain Americans which put on this deal the weight on Indo-US relationship. It was not India. And if they are disappointed it is because of two reasons, 1) American unreasonable expectations and 2) Pitching Obsolete weapons.
Yes granted the only active AESA avaliable is with Americans and not with the europeans, but Mr Tellis you should know that America has not provided the code for AESA to an ally like UK. The chances of US to provide such a source code to India are remote to say the least. Further there is nothing preventing the French and the EFT consortium from developing a AESA radar for India.
Granted F/A-18SH has some amazing sensor facilities, but the whole package has to be taken into the account and not just sensor.

satya · Post by **satya** » 29 Apr 2011 13:41

Unkil ko mirchi lagi hei. This is a first i guess . Will be interesting to know wht they do next either continue the same old way more EJs more SDRE bashing + == thing or they take right steps . It was a message ball in unkil's court .Will be interesting to record unkil's & co. rxn both in desh & videshi media .

Venkarl · Post by **Venkarl** » 29 Apr 2011 14:02

This Deep Disappointment by Yankees is not only because of IAF disqualified US teens but this decision by 4th largest Air Force will hit future prospects of US teens in other countries' air force procurement

. I remember ACM saying IAF technical evaluation procedure is itself a template/handbook for other countries to decide on a fighter plane for procurement.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Apr 2011 14:32

Muppalla wrote: The so called pro-Indian lobby is f-ed up lobby. There may good and genuine folks but along with them there are substantial number of others are there to only promote their business and I am sure about it. The anger can be due to loss of personal deals. If I am India, I will take this with a tonne of salt.

India does not need a lobbying in US. It is totally useless as USA is hellbent on being opposing to India strategically. As long as it keeps on singing that Pakistan is their need and it is just waste. US doesn't want to listen and what is that lobbying will do. All that lobbyists will do is go to India and tell it how better off India will be without JK and nukes.

Thats right. I think you Muppalla'h has it spot on. Someone who I spoke to who was close with the negotiations on the 120k troops inafghanistan issue was saying the same thing. Amriki has no interest to help us and they aren't serious. More than we have to prove our sincerety, US hasto show some sincerety first. How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us and 26/11.

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 29 Apr 2011 14:47

Perhaps one template that was used in the selection was how to prevent aircraft technology from getting into the hands of the Chinese!

The Chinese would not be getting any aircraft technology from the Americans, and Russians would not want to part with their top of the line technology either, so the soft spot, the weak link are the Europeans, and with their economic woes they might just be tempted into selling technology to the Chinese, overriding the objections of the Americans!

So perhaps it was just a means of preempting such an outcome! Actually it makes sense to partner with Europeans and to base the decision on technical grounds. There was little to expect from America on any big strategic issues!

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 29 Apr 2011 14:49

First we had the nuclear power plant liability issue. Then the murky ISRO-Devas deal, which had the likes of Madeline Albright lobbying for it, was canceled. But it's not that the US is getting completely locked out. This is from 2 days ago:

Decks cleared for $5.8-bn C-17 Globemaster deal

New Delhi: The deal to buy 10 C-17 Globemaster-III aircraft from Boeing of the US is a step closer to being clinched. The finance ministry, after initial objections, has sanctioned the money for the acquisition.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/de ... l/781863/0

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 16:30

@shyamd^^^:

"How about relaxation of sanctions that are STILL on us [this is saying we need them] and 26/11.[this is also saying we need them]

The expectation is sooner or later the US will realise they need us." [GoI should articulate why they need us]

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Apr 2011 17:01

Generally speaking you need to keep your cards close to your chest. As the Godfather told his son: "Never let them know what you are thinking". The guys in Delhi are not jingoistic like Iran and show off etc. They are a bit slow but they know the right steps to make.

You ask why? When PRC starts showing its nazi style global ambitions. When Pak does something very stupid indeed. PRC is busy doing its bit - annexing land in central asia, SE asia, so PRC is at the back of a lot leaders minds.

The wind is blowing india's way. Its just a question of time before people look to us to help secure their interests.
For now we must focus on growing our economy and the rest of the pieces will fit into place.

The need of the hour is to really form military alliances who have a common cause. Problem is Dilli lacks a lot of coordination with security and foreign policy.
IFS and leftists are a problem, changing their mindsets is an issue. Like singapore has been asking for strong defence relations since 65! Yet we only got things together in 94 and things have moved forward in last 7 years or so.
Some people have a problem with BJP types too and see them as an impediment.

Let's just pray that the Supreme lord shows us the right path and keeps our environment safe (terror and natural calamities).

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Apr 2011 18:43

Cosmo_R

>>'They' are not the 'understanding' types.

They have no choice but to understand, just like we have no choice but to understand some things like the occasional travel advisory. They can play for other deals, just as we extract from them certain things. This is par for the course. The relationship has matured fairly quickly, and people understand the value of stable, sane partners like the US ... I suspect they are beginning to appreciate the same qualities in us as well - well compared to the neighbours all around, that's not a difficult task.

Of course, moans from Tellis, Pai and I'm sure others must be understood as standard operating procedure. It would just not be good form to not moan. It's a marketing expense, so we won't forget how much they moaned when we have to make a similar decision next time.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 29 Apr 2011 18:47

Unkil will understand and move on. I'm sure that elements within the chamber of commerce types will have some heartburn but it won't harm the overall ties.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 29 Apr 2011 20:26

I'm thinking IAF will finally go for Rafale and if that's the case, the one thing that could have been done differently was to perhaps include one of the American options in the final two instead of the Eurofighter. These things always have a political angle and doing that would have been a low cost sop.

Regardless, I always thought that IAF would have to be forced by the politicos to choose a US fighter. I felt that it was either Rafale or the Russian options when push comes to shove. The Swedes were a decent fall back but since Bofors the MoD has been scared of dealing with them. Buying American is acceptable for cargo jets and one off weapons platforms but for the heart of the strike force it has to be homegrown or a more reliable foreign supplier like France or Russia. I mean reliable in the sense of IAF being confident that there isn't a kill switch hidden somewhere. The French will surely charge a heavy premium but that's the price we have to pay for not having a homegrown fighter of that size/class.

There will be fallout in the US for sure but the bulk of it is likely to be benign. I'm sure that there will be fewer leaked stories of the type "Unkil offers Aegis" etc. but those types of deals were never likely anyway. Boeing and co will not make too much noise because they know that there are always more deals to be done with India.

derkonig · Post by **derkonig** » 29 Apr 2011 20:53

Somehow its hard to believe that the teens could be kicked out even with unkil's bellboy MMS around, so lets wait out until the order gets placed the ink tries on the paper.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Apr 2011 21:01

JE Menon wrote:Cosmo_R

>>'They' are not the 'understanding' types.

They have no choice but to understand, just like we have no choice but to understand some things like the occasional travel advisory. They can play for other deals, just as we extract from them certain things. This is par for the course. The relationship has matured fairly quickly, and people understand the value of stable, sane partners like the US ... I suspect they are beginning to appreciate the same qualities in us as well - well compared to the neighbours all around, that's not a difficult task.

Of course, moans from Tellis, Pai and I'm sure others must be understood as standard operating procedure. It would just not be good form to not moan. It's a marketing expense, so we won't forget how much they moaned when we have to make a similar decision next time.

Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 29 Apr 2011 21:05

Cosmo_R wrote:
Hope you're right. My impression (could be 99.44% wrong of course) is that it's being seen in some very influential quarters as a repudiation of closer military ties not by GoI but by the the Indian military.

May be, but what's wrong with that. In fact, when the issue of CISMOA came up, a senior IAF officer wondered why we need to sign that as India and US won't be fighting together anywhere. It makes sense for their NATO allies, but not for India. Exercises are all fine, and one can learn from the other, but I seriously doubt anyone in India thinks that India and US will be fighting common foes in some corner of the world!

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 21:07

Christopher Sidor wrote: "Questioning whether these aircraft represented the best value for the IAF and the best investments for India overall, Mr. Tellis said to The Hindu that those in the U.S. who felt that India had settled for an aircraft over a strategic relationship would also conclude that “there is no reason why the administration should bend backwards to accommodate India.”

We can of course, dismiss Dr. Tellis as a 'tool' etc. but the truth is IMHO, he's right. The pro-India lobby has been weakened.

Really, select a relationship over fighter. What has Mr. Tellis been smoking? Mr Tellis what will happen when America turns fickle or worse provides Pakistan with exactly the same weapons which have been provided to India, thus negating the 10-11 USD Billion spent.

Several people who bet their life into this US India strategic relationship are feeling nervous. They had made many promises to US establishment and put themselves in the front assuming that they own the decision. Such people seem to be in trouble since many took few people into their decision circle and tried to push through the deal without the larger consensus of the country. This is the real issue here in the "strategic deal"

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 29 Apr 2011 21:20

^This is the fallout of the David Headley case. People do not realize how deeply shocked the Indian establishment was at the brazen shamelessness of the US in protecting this mass murderer. Every Indian politician and bureaucrat was disgusted with US at this point. I had written this very thing during that period itself, and I had mentinoned that it will have an impact on the MRCA deal. The politicos must be relieved that the US planes failed to make the grade in the technical specs itself. Hence, they do not need to cook up excuses for throwing the yanks back into pakistan.

Seriously, UK, US and pakistan deserve each other.

I just hope they do not choose the Eurofighter as it has a UK component. Having UK as a seller is as good as having yanks as sellers. Besides, having Rafale means we deal only with one bunch of politicians, not 3/4 bunches as is the case with Eurofighter.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 29 Apr 2011 21:22

It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

sum · Post by **sum** » 29 Apr 2011 21:26

^^ Honestly, if a 6B $ deal for just 10 planes ( C-17 deal) cannot satisfy US and every deal needs to go to US just to ensure "deep friendship" is shown, then doubtful that even giving the MRCA to the Amir-khans is going to gain anything ( other than a few more free F-16 Blk-50s to Pak which will now be indirectly funded by India)

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 21:32

sum wrote:^^ Honestly, if a 6B $ deal for just 10 planes ( C-17 deal) cannot satisfy US and every deal needs to go to US just to ensure "deep friendship" is shown, then doubtful that even giving the MRCA to the Amir-khans is going to gain anything ( other than a few more free F-16 Blk-50s to Pak which will now be indirectly funded by India)

Now we are talking the real issue here. It is not about the planes but which country will align closely militarily with Indian forces in the future which is of importance. With the sales of fighter jets US wanted to have the front seat by proxy in the sub continent but it will not be.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2011 21:58

People may believe it or not, India has given a jhapad. The system worked one more time.

negi · Post by **negi** » 29 Apr 2011 22:00

^ You are simply reading too much into all this; remember IAF<>GoI.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Apr 2011 22:00

vera_k wrote:It is a missed opportunity to strengthen the Indian lobby for sure. The USA is a transactional culture based on "what have you done for me lately?". Somewhat well illustrated by all the Senators and Congressmen who would toe the TSP line. Of course, you can take the other view and say all politicians can be bought, so maybe the idea is to buy off as many as needed using some of the famously advertised wealth in the Swiss bank accounts.

What India needs is a Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship, and thats not on the cards anytime soon, nor would it have come about by this sale. This ""what have you done for me lately" kind of relationship will always be there and its not going to go away because India said no today.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 29 Apr 2011 22:07

abhischekcc wrote:^This is the fallout of the David Headley case. People do not realize how deeply shocked the Indian establishment was at the brazen shamelessness of the US in protecting this mass murderer. Every Indian politician and bureaucrat was disgusted with US at this point. I had written this very thing during that period itself, and I had mentinoned that it will have an impact on the MRCA deal. The politicos must be relieved that the US planes failed to make the grade in the technical specs itself. Hence, they do not need to cook up excuses for throwing the yanks back into pakistan.

Seriously, UK, US and pakistan deserve each other.

I just hope they do not choose the Eurofighter as it has a UK component. Having UK as a seller is as good as having yanks as sellers. Besides, having Rafale means we deal only with one bunch of politicians, not 3/4 bunches as is the case with Eurofighter.

Boss, I am not so sure it will have an impact though. There are several layers at work here when it comes to US. The business lobby, the arms lobby, and of course the politicians, CIA/Pentagon etc. Unlless, India delivers the message clearly to Obama, Hilary etc, that till US takes India's TSP concerns seriously, this is what will become of India US relations manifested in this rejection of US aircraft, nothing will change. And India herslef must stop this Aman ki tamasha nonsense with TSP and treat it like the terrorist vermin that it is.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 29 Apr 2011 22:18

CRamS wrote:
What India needs is a Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship, and thats not on the cards anytime soon, nor would it have come about by this sale. This ""what have you done for me lately" kind of relationship will always be there and its not going to go away because India said no today.

It is all about geo politics. It is Geography and Politics. It is geopolitical and strategic factors that together characterize a certain geographic area. Until this is aligned only then we will have similar to Israel-US, or EU-US kind of relationship. It is India s region. Others have to align to it.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2011 22:28

negi wrote:^ You are simply reading too much into all this; remember IAF<>GoI.

Totally agree. However, the circumstances post 2G and Wikileaks, it is extremely impossible to overturn the decision. There are several wheels inside GOI that will not allow uncle's men to succeed.