Terrorist Islamic Republic of Pakistan (TSP): May 8, 2011

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 May 2011 07:25

Muppalla wrote:May be it is Talibs who are good-Talibs that want an alliance with India to defeat Pakis.

You might be kidding there, but I seriously did give that a thought. Would India befriend Talibans to counter the Paki Military/ISI mafia? I wanted to blurt it out earlier, but shivered in my lungi at how ridiculous I would have sounded and kept mum. You give me the courage now

First, why would India do that? It is like playing with fire. Talibans have shown that they will bit the hand that feeds them. They are like the parasites that destroy the host. India is wise enough to not play with such species. But then what do I know.
Next, how could India do it? How can India even strike deals with them. It is possible only if one entertains the thought that Taliban or whatever they are called have grown out of Paki M/I control. Like the Frankenstein monster. The other possibility is that Taliban splintered into several baby-Taliban and India found one or two orphans who longed for some love and affection.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 24 May 2011 07:29

SwamyG sir - I was really kidding.

As expected...

Plane blast? Blame Delhi

Some Pakistani defence analysts today appeared to blame India for the attack on the Mehran naval base in Karachi, although the Pakistan Taliban has claimed responsibility.

Ikram Sehgal, a defence expert based in Karachi, questioned the objective of the raid. “One thing is very strange and mystifying. Why should al Qaida attack a P-C3 Orion aircraft?” he asked.

“Just imagine the sort of logistics and planning that would have (been required for) this attack. Terrorists go for soft targets but in this case, they went straight for the P-C3 Orion aircraft, which are primarily used for reconnaissance against the Indians,” he added.

“Who is the beneficiary? Obviously, it is the Indians.” Sehgal dismissed the Taliban claim of responsibility. “The Taliban can claim anything.”

Two P-C3 Orions were blown up during the attack with local TV channels broadcasting images of one of them caught in flames and thick smoke billowing out of the naval base as the staccato of gunfire echoed in the background.

The raid began with at least three loud explosions, heard by neighbourhood residents, that set off raging fires that could be seen from far.

For hours afterwards, helicopters hovered above the base, which has an aircraft armed with rockets hanging on show on a stand outside and a huge billboard saying: “Pakistan Air Force Museum. Unique experience.”

Some 30 to 40 journalists gathered outside, with seven satellite dishes attached to their trucks. Moin Babar, 35, a technical engineer, said: “I heard that 15 (militants) went in through a sewer.”

Like many others, Kamran Khalil, a 48-year-old civil engineer, suggested a conspiracy. “How can this happen? India or the CIA could have been behind this. They want to show that Pakistan forces are ineffective.”

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 24 May 2011 07:29

^

The other alternative is that the TSP Terror Business Model has suddenly diversified

The terrorist contractors find no real advantage to have all their contracts to be channelised through the TSP army especially since they can't even offer the quid pro quo of 'protection'. In which case their business might be available to the highest bidder

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 24 May 2011 07:33

^^^^ I still don't get the mutta marriage of khan and panda at the naval base. Someone please explain

Also India better be careful .. Looks like certain powers are creating a chimera that everything is up for grabs in Pakistan. It kind of justifies behaviour of non-state actors

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 24 May 2011 07:40

Gentlemen,
CNN is still not covering the raid in Pakistan Naval base (A lot of time is given to the tornados). Why? Today (Monday) PBS Newshour did not cover it in detail, there was only cursory coverage. They however spent a great deal of time covering a Pakistani health insurance. PBS Newshour does not broadcast during the weekends. They could have covered the entire story today in great detail. But they chose not to do so. Why is the US mainstream media ignoring this topic? Who benefits from this non coverage?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/terroris ... 05-23.html
...."Burnt-out and worthless, several military aircraft left to smolder on the tarmac, this the headquarters of Pakistan's naval air unit. It was protected by troops and rung with barbed wire, but no match it seems for a small group of militants bent on martyrdom....This another embarrassment for the military, after it failed to detect or stop the U.S. raid against Osama bin Laden three weeks ago..."
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Sou ... ol-of-base
Taliban raid: After another blow to its image, Pakistan's military regains control of base
"With few trusted institutions remaining in Pakistan, such attacks on the military undermine the political stability of the country.
Militants breached the Mehran navy base in a multipronged assault Sunday. Pakistani security forces regained control of the base, but only after an 18 hour battle that gave attackers time to blow up two reconnaissance planes provided to Pakistan by the US. So far, four attackers and 10 security personnel are confirmed dead."
Gautam

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 24 May 2011 07:41

AQ wants war between India and Poakstan. Hope better sense prevail among Poak leaders to understand AQ game and not get distarcted from fighting war against terrorist in this fronlined state of Poakstan.

ranjbe · Post by **ranjbe** » 24 May 2011 07:43

Rahul M wrote:
ramana wrote:I guess you didnt get my allusion. The Onion can be use to find the Arihant type(its a long rage maritime patrol plane aka sub hunter) and nuke it (TOI article above says it can carry stuff). What those Chinese could be doing is integrate the stuff onto the Onions.
the orion is not really useful for detecting a SSBN which will be loitering quite a long way from paki coast. ASW aircraft are not wonder weapons, they have pretty small detection ranges and are only good for detecting subs in the area where they are expected for example approach routes to ports, straits, around capital ships etc.
SSBN in the open ocean will be virtually impossible to detect with an ASW aircraft.
I continue to have serious doubts about this angle of discussion, that P3C orion was being paired with nuke to take out arihant. arihant is based far away from pakistan under ENC, counter force strike against arihant by TSPN would be too ambitious. that's not how pakistan works because it's impossible for them to achieve. they would rather try to attack targets like jamnagar refinery and mumbai. the best weapons for that are the agosta launched exocets and of course the nuke-tipped harpoons. the orions would be needed to defend paki shipping and naval assets from IN hunter-killer subs.

Consulting Wiki, P3C is of 1950 vintage, and the only plane besides the B-52 that old still in service in the USA. Furthermore, the P8 Poseidon (which India has) is a far superior plane, and is replacing the P3C in USN inventory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_P-3_Orion

The Lockheed Electra had been created as cost-effective alternative to the Boeing 707 (first prototype flight in 1954) when turboprops are very efficient at flight speeds below 450 mph compared to early turbojets. The improved P-7 was selected over a variant of the Boeing 757, but was cancelled. The further advanced Orion 21 lost out to the Boeing P-8 Poseidon. Due to enter service in 2013, the P-8 is an evolution of designs dating back to the original 707 as the Boeing 737 airliner has grown to become a slightly larger airframe than the 707 prototype, powered by very efficient low-bypass turbofans with more power.

The P8I is a jet (and so is much faster). and is bigger. and crammed with much more of the latest electronic equipment. Based on these articles one would tend to agree with Rahulji. The P3C if nuclear-armed, would not only be detected by radiation sniffers on satelllites or AWACs. and shot down by an Indian fighter jet -even a Hawk trainer, as someone said.
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/p8- ... ore-02980/

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 May 2011 07:44

jarita, where is the evidence that there was some marriage in the first place ? the base had american aircraft (P3C orion) and chinese aircraft (Z-9 helicopter) and it is also TSPN's primary air base. it is quite natural to expect american and chinese (and french, working on the atlantique) technicians at mehran.

let's not convince ourselves of an unlikely but incredible scenario just for the sake of it when straight forward explanations suffice. occam's razor and all that.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 24 May 2011 07:47

Kayani adventure plays on Delhi mind

In the security establishment in New Delhi, there is suspicion that the attack in Karachi and, earlier, the killing of Osama bin Laden next to the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad has a possible dangerous spin-off for India.

The fear is that the military under General Ashfaq Kayani may be tempted to get adventurous because morale in Pakistan’s armed forces has plummeted after the two raids.
...
...
Even in New Delhi, senior naval officials concede that such an attack would undermine the military of any country. The attack on the naval air station PNS Mehran is on a par with the LTTE raid on Colombo airport in Sri Lanka before the outfit was all but destroyed.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 24 May 2011 07:54

Refresh button on India fears

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110524/j ... 022338.jsp

New Delhi’s perception —based on real-time inputs from Pakistan — is that the Taliban are in a position now to mount “highly sophisticated and organised” attacks, such as the one they believe the Mehran raid to be.

“Parts of the Taliban are virtually at war with those they think are taking them on in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mehran is a very sensitive defence facility; apart from Pakistani defence personnel from all three wings of the armed forces, there probably are a good number of Americans, Chinese and Turks there too for logistical and other purposes,” the source said to underscore the gravity of the attack.

Raising concerns over reports of Pakistan’s intensified nuclear weapons programme, the sources said: “That worries us, and it worries us because there are concerns about the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Who guards the guardians? Do we trust them? As Pakistan loses internal coherence, our threat perception goes higher and it is genuine.”

They wouldn’t rush into any hasty speculation on Pakistani nuclear weapons falling into “maverick hands”, but they did underline India’s stated position on a possible nuclear attack in cold and measured tones: “There will be an assured massive retaliation in that event,” the source said.

“That should be clear, that is what a credible nuclear deterrence means. There are no intermediate choices about that.”

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 24 May 2011 08:00

Rahul is right

have an ex Orion operator who was in charge of the buoys etc.

He said it was impossible to detect subs unless the aircraft was almost over them.

He further says the damn thing was slow that even when directed to the area, the target had slipped out.

Even assuming the newer updated electronics was better, he would still not put great faith on them.

am sure it applies to all anti sub aircraft

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 24 May 2011 08:06

Couple of things are interesting in this episode:

(1) What the hell is Paki security if Talibs are the real perpetrators? How in the word that is supposed to be most secure is attacked. Some 10 to 15 soovers can come thro sewer and hit two big aircrafts. Indian sources are hopeful of some other aircrafts getting destroyed but not announced.

(2) Every one is suddenly talking about Paki Nukes. The most interesting being MMS team members accompanying him in African visit.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 May 2011 08:10

Muppalla wrote:SwamyG sir - I was really kidding.

I know you were; but I am not. Out of box thinking kavala kada?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 May 2011 08:20

RahulM and Surya lets not cut off discussion before ideas form.

I too know what the plane can do and what it used to do.

Also note its primary Cold War role was SSBN tracker and attacker.

arun · Post by **arun** » 24 May 2011 08:33

Airavat wrote:Poverty does not breed extremism in Pakistan, study finds

The paper itself authored by Graeme Blair, C. Christine Fair, Neil A, Malhotra and Jacob N. Shapiro is dated May 2, 2011 and is titled “Poverty and Support for Militant Politics: Evidence from Pakistan”.

Click for the paper:

Clicky

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 24 May 2011 08:35

hnair wrote:
Muppalla wrote: Is that really useful for bombing purpose? India probably will shoot it down even before it thinks of crossing. I don't know the use of Orions in Nuke scenario for Pakis.
Muppalla-saar, not for strategic strike, but depth charging an SSBN carrying the Thin Ladies, closer to coast. Pu is piling up faster than pakistaniyat at a pig farm and unkil is sanguine.

nairgolis,
a Orion carried nuke to depth charge an SS*N ? Never ever heard of something like that. Did any TFTA navy fellow let it slip sometime back about such a thing?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 08:38

Rahul M wrote: I continue to have serious doubts about this angle of discussion, that P3C orion was being paired with nuke to take out arihant. arihant is based far away from pakistan under ENC, counter force strike against arihant by TSPN would be too ambitious. that's not how pakistan works because it's impossible for them to achieve. they would rather try to attack targets like jamnagar refinery and mumbai. the best weapons for that are the agosta launched exocets and of course the nuke-tipped harpoons. the orions would be needed to defend paki shipping and naval assets from IN hunter-killer subs.

I agree broadly with this but I would like to call a halt to this discussion of a Pakistan nuclear tipped Harpoon.

The Harpoon has a warhead weight of less than 400 kg and a missile diameter of 34 cm. Getting a nuclear warhead that is 30 cm in diameter AND less than 400 kg in weight is something that only the US is known to have achieved. A minimum of 5 kg Pu is needed for a bang by all open source estimates. Forget Uranium. 5 kg Pu is an 8 cm ball. Add some more to that for a tamper and a hollow pit for neutron generation. Add conventional explosive and a casing around that and you cross 30 cm diameter rapidly. The US had the time and opportunity to experiment and probably developed some interesting designs - maybe an ovoid or cylinder of some linear shape. But Pakistanis doing that?

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 24 May 2011 08:43

RamaY
I posted as soon as Osama was killed that RA&W would definitely have assets under deep cover inside Pakistan who would know his movements. It is inconceivable that India did not know. When I posted this, I was intercepted by two Admins and I had to edit out my post completely.
I posted that India informed about OBL location to Obama during latters visit to India by the PM himself. Obama had no choice because if he choose to delay the raid there was a real danger India could act or worse leak it to wikileaks(or some other leak site) who would expose US knowledge about OBL location. It would be a catastrophe for Obama. He will never be re elected.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 24 May 2011 08:45

Sirji,
design doesn't need to be pakistani. Do the chinese have that sort of a capability? The pakistanis could supply the pu and make a bomb based on chinese design. Possible?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 May 2011 08:46

>> Also note its primary Cold War role was SSBN tracker and attacker.

actually that role was with the SSNs of USN which were tasked with shadowing each and every SSBN of soviet navy deployed in their bastion. P3C's duty was responding to subs (not necessarily SSBN) already detected by other assets.

it's effective only when either a) patrolling probable areas of sub activity (GIUK for instance) or
b) someone else has already detected the sub's location. for that you would need capable sub and surface fleet or even better, something like the SOSUS. even ASW helo's are better than fixed wing aircraft at sub detection.
_____________

here's a nice analysis of the threat from P3C orion from IN perspective, written by a retd Commodore at SAAG.
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r1235.html

>As far as the Anti Sub marine operations are concerned, the range of Passive, Active Directional sonobuoys and the Magnetic detector that the aircraft carries provides it the wherewithal to keep probable areas of enemy Submarine deployment under active surveillance. [Note : NOT detect SSBN in the wide open ocean]The threat to the P3C would indeed be minimized as it would be operating close to its own shore and would be well with in its shore based fighter cover. [far away from where SSBNs will be deployed. ties in with my understanding that P3C would be deployed near paki coast to defend shipping and naval assets] On detection and localization, the aircraft has array of weapons including torpedoes and depth charges which could be released with great accuracy enabled by onboard sonic processors and mission computer systems.

reading through the article, it's apparent that the retd Commodore considers the P3C to be primarily a threat to surface assets rather than subs.

shiv wrote:
Rahul M wrote: I continue to have serious doubts about this angle of discussion, that P3C orion was being paired with nuke to take out arihant. arihant is based far away from pakistan under ENC, counter force strike against arihant by TSPN would be too ambitious. that's not how pakistan works because it's impossible for them to achieve. they would rather try to attack targets like jamnagar refinery and mumbai. the best weapons for that are the agosta launched exocets and of course the nuke-tipped harpoons. the orions would be needed to defend paki shipping and naval assets from IN hunter-killer subs.
I agree broadly with this but I would like to call a halt to this discussion of a Pakistan nuclear tipped Harpoon.

The Harpoon has a warhead weight of less than 400 kg and a missile diameter of 34 cm. Getting a nuclear warhead that is 30 cm in diameter AND less than 400 kg in weight is something that only the US is known to have achieved. A minimum of 5 kg Pu is needed for a bang by all open source estimates. Forget Uranium. 5 kg Pu is an 8 cm ball. Add some more to that for a tamper and a hollow pit for neutron generation. Add conventional explosive and a casing around that and you cross 30 cm diameter rapidly. The US had the time and opportunity to experiment and probably developed some interesting designs - maybe an ovoid or cylinder of some linear shape. But Pakistanis doing that?

agreed, it was a loosely made comment, I continue to be skeptical about mating harpoon with nukes. more importantly, what are the chances that TSPA and fizzle ya will even trust TSPN with the family jewels ?

sum · Post by **sum** » 24 May 2011 08:47

I posted that India informed about OBL location to Obama during latters visit to India by the PM himself. Obama had no choice because if he choose to delay the raid there was a real danger India could act or worse leak it to wikileaks(or some other leak site) who would expose US knowledge about OBL location.

Sirji, any chaiwallahs told you this or is this your guess?

arun · Post by **arun** » 24 May 2011 08:50

The non Pakistani media is pointing out the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has been thoroughly humiliated by the attack on one of its principal bases in Karachi.

Humiliation deepens for Pakistan military : AFP

Pakistan humiliated by Bin Laden revenge attack : The Independent

18 hour raid at Karachi naval base heaps humiliation on Pakistan : The Telegraph

The Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan should stick to intimidating its own civilian population, launching coup d'état ‘s, hogging the resources of that failing state and leave war fighting strictly alone

.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 24 May 2011 08:53

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-news ... he-warpath

President Obama must have taken leave of his senses when he warned that the US would launch another unilateral operation inside Pakistan to take on a high value target. This was followed by his statement that the information collected from the compound of Osama Bin Laden will be used to carry out operations against Al-Qaeda, which in reality is an another attempt to frighten our nation. Also, he made the ridiculous statement that in considering India an enemy, Pakistan was at a fault.

Too eager to prove to the American public that he is the man of the hour carrying the ‘White Man’s burden’, Mr Obama is frequently indulging in spewing venom against Pakistan. But what the American pubic doesn’t seem to grasp is that the demagogue they have brought into the Oval Office, -- while least deserving of this honour -- is only endangering global peace and most importantly the safety of the American public when he talks about launching more unilateral strikes against Pakistan. There are consequences of every action and while it should be clear that Pakistan is a peaceful state and bears America no ill will, what Mr Obama should have no confusion about is the fact that the backlash of his disastrous operations where they are hitting us, they are bound to hit the US mainland one day. The danger to life and security of Americans and the world therefore comes not from Pakistan but from Obama’s inadvisable policies of global domination and aggression against us. He has become a docile puppet in the hands of the American establishment and the CIA but keeping in view his sabre-rattling against Islamabad, he has turned out to be no less cunning than the proverbial fox to put a gloss on dreadful performance of his administration regarding domestic issues and hence improving his chances of a win in the next presidential elections. Obama must restraint his ambitions from getting the better of his sense of proportion and at least act with the decency that is required of a US President.

look at their chaddis in twist.....causing so much heartburn that he's spewing all kinds of nonsense. the entire piece, a short one, is one contradiction after another. he says one thing and then promptly turns around and say something different......they're having trouble keeping themselves balanced, under the present onslaught. while it is definitely funny, it is also cause for caution. India should be gearing up, just in case...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 May 2011 08:55

imo the nuke tipped harpoon does NOT have to be a n-weapon - it can be a cladding of radioactive matter around the usual explosive...the panic effects in key cities like mumbai or ahmedabad would be about the same. take the thunderstorm that devastated mumbai and multiply by 10. infact it may even be desirable step on the escalatory ladder as a sub-caliber warning shot - "we can reach into mumbai and drop a dirty bomb, we can drop a real one too"

PAK has definitely modified the harpoon some for land attack (because the latest mark of land attack harpoon2 was denied it)....it can hit big juicy targets like coastal refineries or power plants in gujarat from standoff distance after ingressing at low level over the sea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-Sol_Mo ... ort%C3%A9e
Shiv, the france ASMP nuclear tipped missile has a diameter of exactly 30cm. you can minus 5cm for the casing. it features a TN81 warhead 100-300kt. so its not true that only US has such technology for small nukes. all of the P5 would certainly have it and tested it. soviets had suitcase nukes too for "courier delivery".

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 24 May 2011 08:59

http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-news ... mar-killed

Mullah Omar killed?

Afghanistan’s intelligence services said Monday that Taliban leader Mullah Omar had “disappeared from his hideout” in Pakistan, but could not confirm that he had been killed despite an earlier claim. Security officials in Pakistan and diplomats, US military commanders and government officials in Afghanistan all cast doubt on reports that Omar, one of the most-wanted men in the world, had been killed while travelling between Quetta and North Waziristan in Pakistan.

“We can confirm that he has been disappeared from his hideout in Quetta, Balochistan,” said Lutfullah Mashal, spokesman for the National Directorate of Security (NDS). “He has been disappeared from his location during the last four to five days,” he added, speaking in English. “So far we can’t confirm if he is dead or alive.”

Mashal’s comments came hours after one Afghan intelligence source called a handful of reporters to tell them on condition of anonymity that Omar had been killed in Pakistan by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.

A separate source later told AFP that he had been missing for 11 days.

The Taliban have denied that he is dead or missing. Speaking to AFP by telephone from an undisclosed location, Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the claim was “pure propaganda”.

A senior Pakistani security official also said he could not confirm media reports, including on Afghanistan’s private TV station TOLO, that Omar had been killed by members of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 09:02

Prasad wrote:Sirji,
design doesn't need to be pakistani. Do the chinese have that sort of a capability? The pakistanis could supply the pu and make a bomb based on chinese design. Possible?

Anything is possible. The US may have given their own designs to Pakistan to fight Osama. Or the Chinese may have stolen US designs. Possible and probable are two different things - but such problems only arise if you try and dig deeper into things like purity of Plutonium required, ability to extract Plutonium from spent fuel, the need to have sure fire bomb designs for robust deterrence, how much Pu can be spared for low yield small weapons such a those on a harpoon that require the delivery aircraft to fly subsonic to within 250 km of the target and how much effect can be gained from 1 nuke tipped Harpoon. And whether or not it would be better to use 5 Kg of Pu on a sure fire design 25 kt city buster weighing 1 ton to be delivered 2500 km on a missile rather than wasting 5 kg on a Harpoon based nuke.

Once I started looking at all these details it started seeming less likely to me and I have expressed my opinion. If you believe that a nuclear tipped Harpoon is a likely scenario i would ask you to clarify the points that I have mentioned above so that I am better informed and can change my view if need be. My own reading tells me that it is improbable.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 24 May 2011 09:05

@Altair, It has been publicly disclosed the Gujral, forced RAW to discard all its assets in TSP and that is why we are not able to take any retaliate for 26/11 et al. Now you are suggesting that not only does RA&W have assets but they were so good that they were tracking OBL. When we cant take action against Dawood in Karachi or Hafeez or Maulana Azhar, this line of thought that we have assets who knew OBL's location & the various suggestion that we have the capability to take OBL out is to say the least not very realistic.

arnab · Post by **arnab** » 24 May 2011 09:07

This 'success has a 1000 fathers, while a failure is an orphan' motif seems to be coming true by the minute. Earlier packees were claiming they knew of operation against OBL, now apparently RAW knew - seems like everybody except OBL knew about this operation

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 09:12

Singha wrote:imo the nuke tipped harpoon does NOT have to be a n-weapon - it can be a cladding of radioactive matter around the usual explosive...the panic effects in key cities like mumbai or ahmedabad would be about the same. take the thunderstorm that devastated mumbai and multiply by 10.

I find this difficult to swallow and these stories circulating in the media have not thought this thing trough.

First - how far can a 400 kg conventional bomb spread radioactive material? Two city blocks? 3 city blocks? How much is that going to affect Mumbaikars?

Second - how much "radioactive material" is going to be wasted on this and what radioactive material? After all every gram of Uranium or Pu is worth more than its weight in gold and is better collected for a proper nuke. A proper nuke explosion will not only knock out several square km of a city, it will spread radioactive material further and kill more.

10 conventionally armed Ghauris on Mumbai will do more damage and cause more panic that one raidoactivity spreading explosive. In India no one knows about radiation and no one is scared. with just 1-2 bombs there will be no panic except among educated elite.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 24 May 2011 09:15

Rahul M wrote:jarita, where is the evidence that there was some marriage in the first place ? the base had american aircraft (P3C orion) and chinese aircraft (Z-9 helicopter) and it is also TSPN's primary air base. it is quite natural to expect american and chinese (and french, working on the atlantique) technicians at mehran.

let's not convince ourselves of an unlikely but incredible scenario just for the sake of it when straight forward explanations suffice. occam's razor and all that.

Saar,

Never come across military contractors working at 10 in the night.

May be I have been running with the wrong crowd!!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 May 2011 09:18

RahulM, Consider the known range of K-15 vehicles on Arihant.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 24 May 2011 09:25

chetak wrote:
Rahul M wrote:jarita, where is the evidence that there was some marriage in the first place ? the base had american aircraft (P3C orion) and chinese aircraft (Z-9 helicopter) and it is also TSPN's primary air base. it is quite natural to expect american and chinese (and french, working on the atlantique) technicians at mehran.

let's not convince ourselves of an unlikely but incredible scenario just for the sake of it when straight forward explanations suffice. occam's razor and all that.

Saar,

Never come across military contractors working at 10 in the night.

May be I have been running with the wrong crowd!!

mm, who said they were working ? they were probably living in the base. if they were working they would probably have been caught in the attack.

ramana ji, even 600 km, minimum distance considering K15's range is beyond orion's effective zone. do note that the retd Commodore who wrote that article is an experienced ASW operator himself.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 May 2011 09:29

>> In India no one knows about radiation and no one is scared. with just 1-2 bombs there will be no panic except among educated elite.

I do not agree. tv channels and cellphones will be spreading it in no time. they could use a mix of 1 kg radioactive uranium, 1 kg pindi chana masala and 1 kg of horsedung for all that will matter once the viral effects of panic sets in. looting and breakdown of law and order will definitely follow as millions of people try to leave the city. financially it will be a hit countrywide.

its just the kind of last ditch warning shot the french intended the ASMP for - before they released the launch of SLBM warheads...

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 09:30

Singha wrote: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air-Sol_Mo ... ort%C3%A9e
Shiv, the france ASMP nuclear tipped missile has a diameter of exactly 30cm. you can minus 5cm for the casing. it features a TN81 warhead 100-300kt. so its not true that only US has such technology for small nukes. all of the P5 would certainly have it and tested it. soviets had suitcase nukes too for "courier delivery".

Singha - 23 cm is the smallest diameter that has been known to be achieved from open source. I am not saying less that 30 cm cannot be achieved but it requires a high degree of technology that Pakistan lacks Under the circumstances we have to hide behind the hijab of "Pakistan gets designs from China" to say that Pakistan is able to do that.

As regards a 25 cm French warhead - I am not sure how many the French have tested. From 1990 til date the french have tested only 4 bombs that yielded over 100 kt. The ASMP is a recent design and there may be some cross pollination from the US. If we apply the argument of "Sauce for Goose is Sauce for Gander" unless the French have tested repeatedly the damn thing may not work. After all Indian designs are reputed to be unworkable because we have tested less than the French. So where does that leave Pakistan?

All I am saying is that the US may have nuclear tipped Harpoon. Not Pakistan.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 09:33

Singha wrote: I do not agree. tv channels and cellphones will be spreading it in no time. they could use a mix of 1 kg radioactive uranium, 1 kg pindi chana masala and 1 kg of horsedung for all that will matter once the viral effects of panic sets in. looting and breakdown of law and order will definitely follow as millions of people try to leave the city. financially it will be a hit countrywide.

its just the kind of last ditch warning shot the french intended the ASMP for - before they released the launch of SLBM warheads...

fair enough - but like I said only the elite will panic. The rest will stay put. And if the bomb is in Malleshwaram - No one in Koramangala will panic. Or even in Whitefield, Fraser town, electronics city or Indira nagar. "Millions panicking" is unlikely.

As regards "last ditch warning shot" I hope the pakis are that stupid.

Karna_A · Post by **Karna_A** » 24 May 2011 09:46

Muppalla wrote:Kayani adventure plays on Delhi mind
In the security establishment in New Delhi, there is suspicion that the attack in Karachi and, earlier, the killing of Osama bin Laden next to the Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad has a possible dangerous spin-off for India.

The fear is that the military under General Ashfaq Kayani may be tempted to get adventurous because morale in Pakistan’s armed forces has plummeted after the two raids.
...
...
Even in New Delhi, senior naval officials concede that such an attack would undermine the military of any country. The attack on the naval air station PNS Mehran is on a par with the LTTE raid on Colombo airport in Sri Lanka before the outfit was all but destroyed.

Kayanee is in very difficult situation:
(a) He knows for certain attack was by fringe TTP/Afg Taliban. But he cannot act against them openly. The reason is most junior officers now have sympathy with TTP and after OBL raid would think that this raid was done by CIA Raymond types. If Kayanee goes openly against TTP, there are chances of lower level revolt or further sabotage.

The other thing why would TTP attack Navy planes to be used against India. Well, terrorists do not have sound reasons all the time.
Why was IPS Atwal killed in Golden Temple in 1983 when he was unarmed and had come to pray. That was the time, Punjab terrorists lost all credibility till Bluestar. There is no reason to terror madness.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 24 May 2011 09:48

BTW, the PNS Mehran, essentially shares the airfield with the Pork eater Inter-ummah Airport in Karachi.

Quite likely that all sorts of nationalities are milling around the complex in any case.

In fact I am quite disappointed that no inter-ummah flights got accidentally hit.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 24 May 2011 09:49

Karna_A wrote: The other thing why would TTP attack Navy planes to be used against India.

According to BRaman, TSPN is the arm working most enthusiastically with US and west in putting down the jahil talebs.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 24 May 2011 09:50

The other point about a dirty bomb on a city is that if a bomb goes off tomorrow on Brigade road in Bangalore onlookers and rescue workers will not know it is contaminated and will be on site within 15 minutes of the explosion. A rough estimate would be that at least 2000 people will pass through the contaminated area even if it is cordoned off soon. Those people will have no idea that this was a dirty bomb. In fact Bangalore will not know it was a dirty bomb for 2-3 days until the fist few people with radiation sickness appear. By that time several tens of thousands of people will have passed through the area. Like the Swine flu panic these people will fill hospitals asking if they will be affected and doctors can only tell them to wait for symptoms. Once news of contamination is out most people in Bangalore will avoid the area. At most 20-30,000 will have been exposed and some percentage will develop symptoms. Brigade road will be closed for weeks but surrounding areas will be decontaminated and back in action. Contamination of ground water would be a bigger worry but in the rainy season most surface contamination will get washed into sewers and flow into the main sewage canals and thence into the downstream areas.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 May 2011 09:53

deveshji:

I think that Nation editorial is openly threatening attacks on mainland USA. They forget that have yet to receive pay-back for 9/11.