India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

Thomas Kolarek · Post by **Thomas Kolarek** » 07 Aug 2011 06:47

Hope some sense of reality prevails as both are proven aircraft's with money being not part of the decision now. I some how feel Rafale will be selected and India's $2 billion + deal for Mirage upgrade has some thing for Rafale's advance payment - of course Conspiracy theory.
Warning: The one Country which has ra****m embedded in blood is Germany(example is gun deal mentioned below). India will face music with after-sales Customer Support if they chose Typhoon. Frenchmen are million times better. I believe Germany is fully pushing for this deal for business reason and to bail out debt ridden Italy.

Victor wrote:Germany and Austria have refused to give export licences to their weapon manufacturers wanting to sell to certain Indian states which they believe have a poor human rights record.
States on the blacklist include Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Manipur, Orissa and Jammu and Kashmir

shiv wrote:Publicly discussed prices of planes is pure trash. That means that total cost divided by number of aircraft will be an equally misleading figure. The real figures and exactly why those figures are being quoted will always remain hidden for various reasons.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Aug 2011 09:04

At a tangent,crash info. is an absolute req.Had we not planned better,we would not be still flying ancient MIG-21s,whose young pilots have no basic trainer too! This is a sad commentary on the IAF/MOD which have to be pulled up by their bootlaces.Fortunately,we have not had a repetition of the La Fontaine findings-the need for a basic jet trainer,whose decision took 20+ years to take ,and even after the Hawk was acquired,we experienced probems with the contract.The MMRCA itself is a stop-gap arrangement for the delayed LCA,meant to replace the MIG-21s.This appears to be the equiv. of the CWG scam,where delayed decisions lead to knee-jerk imports at phenomenal cost and the country gets "jerked-off"(pardon my lingo) in the bargain! Both EF and Rafale should provide us with the details of the Libyan ops and problems experienced.India cannot be the guinea-pig at a cost of a minimum of $10 billions.

The heavy helo contest contenders should also be examined for crashes,etc.The Chinooks-latest just shot down by an RPG or MANPADS in Afghanistan,seem to be exceptionally vulnerable to small arms fire and appear to lack good anti-missile/armour defences.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 07 Aug 2011 09:11

The heavy helo contest contenders should also be examined for crashes,etc.The Chinooks-latest just shot down by an RPG or MANPADS in Afghanistan,seem to be exceptionally vulnerable to small arms fire and appear to lack good anti-missile/armour defences.

Sigh

and you know of any helo which takes an RPG or MANPAD round??

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 07 Aug 2011 09:54

^^^

The Rusi helos can shurg off an RPG round you ignorant SDRE.

100 lashes will cure you of your ignorance.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 07 Aug 2011 11:00

Surya wrote:
The heavy helo contest contenders should also be examined for crashes,etc.The Chinooks-latest just shot down by an RPG or MANPADS in Afghanistan,seem to be exceptionally vulnerable to small arms fire and appear to lack good anti-missile/armour defences.
Sigh

and you know of any helo which takes an RPG or MANPAD round??

If you're questioning the mighty abilities of Russki helos, then you're nothing but the agent of bhestern agencies and a counter-revolutionary out of destabilize the utopia of the agragarian masses......may a thousand lice infect your beard

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 07 Aug 2011 11:28

Surya wrote:Sigh

and you know of any helo which takes an RPG or MANPAD round??

With almighty with you, you don't need helios, manpads and rpg's.

venku_Raj · Post by **venku_Raj** » 10 Aug 2011 08:43

Libya Mission marks 1,000 operational hours on Typhoons for RAF pilot

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 10 Aug 2011 09:15

Latest from Jane's Defense weekly email:

BAE Systems and Dassault pin hopes on India after grim results
Both Dassault and BAE Systems have pinned hopes on major export orders from India as the European defence and aerospace groups revealed grim financial results for the first half of the year on 28 July. BAE Systems saw operating earnings and sales fall 12 per cent to GBP9.3 billion (USD4.9 billion) and GBP757 million (USD1.21 billion) respectively, while the order book dipped from GBP43.4 billion (USD 70.8 billion) as of 30 June 2010 to GBP36.9 billion (USD60.2 billion) as of the close of the first half of 2011

[first posted to http://jdw.janes.com - 29 July 2011]

Also, opinion on the JSF from the same email:

Australian DoD grows impatient with delays to JSF programme
Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith has indicated growing impatience with the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter programme, stating that the project is starting to "rub against" the country's ceilings for schedule and cost. Australia previously outlined a plan to procure up to 100 F-35s; the country ordered an initial batch of 14 aircraft for AUD3.2 billion (USD3.5 billion) in 2009

[first posted to http://jdw.janes.com - 29 July 2011]

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Aug 2011 12:35

14 for 3.5 comes to $250 mil each. so much for the $65 mil indic-JSF.

for what it brings to table, Aus would likely be better of just ordering a modernized F-15SE for delivery in same timeframe. its long range is the reason Aus took FB-111 earlier.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 10 Aug 2011 17:15

And the price must be rising with the delays?

I wish we could get a move on with our MMRCA. There is no news about the price bids being opened. I would have thought, and this has happened to me in Govt. deals, that the prospect gives the vendor an xls and asks vendors to fill it up so that the calculation is done pronto.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 11 Aug 2011 04:55

Indian Fighter Competition Nears Finals
Aviation Week

The winner of the Indian air force’s $12 billion Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) fighter competition should soon emerge, as the government is set to formally begin the process of identifying the lowest bidder in early September

The Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale are the final contenders left in the race and Indian government officials have finalized how they will judge offset and industrial participation offers that are crucial in deciding which company will be chosen to supply the initial order for 126 fighters. However, a defense ministry official indicates that the air force wants contractual options to be exercised immediately, which would boost the buy to 189 fighters and the program value to almost $20 billion.

Air Chief Marshal (ret.) P.V. Naik revealed the impending source selection decision just before he retired July 31 and said a formula has been found to benchmark the offers to provide a like-for-like comparison. This is designed to determine what the government considers a reasonable cost, reflecting several factors such as pricing in other countries, known commercial bids and inflation.

The defense ministry’s Technical Offsets Evaluation Committee has almost completed its review of the two offset packages and will make its report final shortly, according to government officials. The MMRCA competition has a 50% offsets requirement, running into at least $6 billion and acknowledged by industry observers to be one of the most challenging reinvestment propositions in recent aerospace contracting.

A key challenge is that India’s aerospace industry is not considered mature enough to absorb all those offsets, putting pressure on the winner to work with companies to establish the capability to deliver on what is being promised, warns a European industry executive.

One building manager suggests that the offsets element is likely to simply be looked at as “compliant or non-compliant.” Officials from both Dassault and Eurofighter have held multiple meetings with Indian offset managers, and both companies have expressed confidence that their packages meet what is required. However, that issue will be even more thorny if the option for more aircraft is exercised at the outset.

“If the [defense ministry] has benchmarked realistically, it will almost definitely mean that the government will need more money to sign a contract for either the Typhoon or Rafale, even accounting for inflation. Is the ministry willing to go down that road?” asks a manager at Boeing.

Both Eurofighter and Dassault have publicly insisted that their bids are competitive and privately hope the government has taken several factors into consideration while arriving at their benchmark price, in particular that the aircraft are more capable and newer than some that were in the running.

There is concern, however, that if the government looks across all six competitors originally in the field, the benchmark price will be below that proffered by either Eurofighter or Dassault, which could lead to questions about how the source selection process should proceed.

If the Indian government begins examining commercial bids next month, a lowest bidder could be named in November or December and a contract signed before the end of March.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Aug 2011 17:10

Yep! If the prices for both the Rafale and EF are significantly larger than the losers,the GOI might very well take a second look at them,if they have also met the basic IAF's requirements,as the MMRCA is intended to be a stop-gap before the FGFA (250-300) and LCA Mk-2 arrive in strength.In addition,extra SU-30 Super-Flankers which can carry BMos will arrive much before the first MMRCAs arrive.Upgrading 60+ MIG-29s is costing just $950M and 50+ M-2000s a whopping $2.4M.The number of MMRCA's planned ,ight very well then not go beyond the 120+ in the first tranche and the money saved spent on buying extra aircraft of types already in service,a far more cost-effective alternative and put into the LCA,FGFA and AMCA programmes.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Aug 2011 17:50

I was afraid of this all along. Once the bean counters figure out that neither of the aircraft can fit into the current budget ($10 -11 bil) they are going to refuse to sign off on the purchase. IMHO it is far from certain whether this deal will even go through. Testing times ahead.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 11 Aug 2011 18:09

Expect more orders for SU-30s .What are the other options? But this is a twin-seat aircraft requiring an extra pilot and all the extra requirements down the line. I personally would add another 60+ MIG-35s to the upgraded MIG-29s,easiest option to me,as the IN is also buying 60+ MIG-29Ks and the Russians are setting up/have set up a service outfit at Nasik for the same for both services.It would be a better option than buying another new type.If the IN are happy with their new MIG-29Ks why can't the IAF also examine this route for the sake of keeping numbers and capability happy at reasonable cost?

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 11 Aug 2011 18:10

^^^ would not larger numbers reduce the price ? Besides the other 4 bidders did not fulfil the aqsr , so were eliminated. What about offsets going back to the Indian economy? If India becomes a eurofighter partner nation than what about profits derived from sales to other countries?

KiranM · Post by **KiranM** » 11 Aug 2011 18:17

Philip wrote:Expect more orders for SU-30s .What are the other options? But this is a twin-seat aircraft requiring an extra pilot and all the extra requirements down the line. I personally would add another 60+ MIG-35s to the upgraded MIG-29s,easiest option to me,as the IN is also buying 60+ MIG-29Ks and the Russians are setting up/have set up a service outfit at Nasik for the same for both services.It would be a better option than buying another new type.If the IN are happy with their new MIG-29Ks why can't the IAF also examine this route for the sake of keeping numbers and capability happy at reasonable cost?

What a baloney! IN fighters need to mainly cater to fleet air defence and strike. IN has not yet reached the level of USN to do all from their carriers.
IAF fighters need to take care of interdiction, CAS and other roles. So how can IAF 'be happy' with what IN asked for? Since when did arm chair marshals become more qualified than real Air Marshals who earned their stars and stripes?
Some people go to ridiculous lengths to deride a qualified and professional requirements analysis by IAF for its needs. I guess our babus are made of similar stuff.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Aug 2011 18:24

Philip wrote:Expect more orders for SU-30s .What are the other options? But this is a twin-seat aircraft requiring an extra pilot and all the extra requirements down the line. I personally would add another 60+ MIG-35s to the upgraded MIG-29s,easiest option to me,as the IN is also buying 60+ MIG-29Ks and the Russians are setting up/have set up a service outfit at Nasik for the same for both services.It would be a better option than buying another new type.If the IN are happy with their new MIG-29Ks why can't the IAF also examine this route for the sake of keeping numbers and capability happy at reasonable cost?

The Mig-35 is dead in the water. Nothing beyond a couple of partial spec prototypes ever existed of the type. Besides the IAF already rejected it on technical grounds.
More Su-30s + more LCAs can be the answer. But what is really needed is for the government to muscle the deal through even if it is over budget. Too much time has been spent on this and the IAF nneded the aircraft yesterday.. Lets see if the present government is capable of that. I have my doubts.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Aug 2011 18:54

I expect the benchmark price somewhere between MKI-NG and PAK-FA, going by features. So, a benchmark price of around $75 is what I am thinking would in babooze thoughts. In addition, they have to prorate or deal out for special price increase for tech transfer - component wise, so that they can selectively consider tech transfer needs, but on the whole get a blank signature for changing and upgrading the platform without having to consent with the original manufacturer.

So, that would mean extended arguments with the suppliers, and they get irked or a new babudom takes helm, all these would go back to another 10 year saga as shiv's wished.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 11 Aug 2011 19:04

If, as some say, the price of the Typhoon/Rafale is going to be far in excess of what the buyer expected then there is a dilemma to be sorted out.

a) The babus enter into really hard negotiations. And believe me they are capable of that.

b) If we go back to any of the four dropped products we will be in gross violation of tender legality and those not selected finally can seek legal damages.

c) The only choice, to me, would be that we scrap the tender and order more Su 30MKIs if a) fails

Or

d) Go for a fresh tender which may mean another ten year delay.

On an aside, I read an article posted here, which seemed like a translation from Russian that spoke of RuAF ordering Mig-35s? Can't remember when. But to rubbish the capabilities of the Mig-35 as some are doing is inaccurate.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 11 Aug 2011 22:24

If the MMRCA deal is failing, then it's better to speed up and begin mass production of Tejas Mark-1 and Mark-II. Anything else will be wastage of time.

manum · Post by **manum** » 11 Aug 2011 22:33

when we went for Mirage upgrade which is costly and will take 10 years time...We already knew what MMRCA birds will cost...

Secondly, we spent 10 years into this...now include the time cost escalation...and we go for more few more years...we'll be making one more scorpene like scenario...

Going for what we have rejected will only raise doubts on MMRCA process...and lead to more chaos, we cant set a wrong precedence.

Ordering more MKI's will only block our view towards a different world.
LCA mk2 cant be made a bandar...

My gut feel is we already know the cost escalations...and we have all the mistakes in past to learn from...and back the europeans with order...

MarcH · Post by **MarcH** » 12 Aug 2011 03:01

Isn't the writing already on the wall ? IAF will get Rafales, part of the deal will be paid through the rediculous expensive M2K update. Officially the Rafales will be sold at fire sale prices and everybody is happy. That's the only way one of the big ECD's will fit in the budget.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 12 Aug 2011 04:14

MarcH wrote:Officially the Rafales will be sold at fire sale prices and everybody is happy.

EADS will not be so happy and their lawyers will account for every paisa in court if they smell a shady deal. Even Boeing, LM, Mig, SAAB will jump in. Dassault and GoI are aware of that I'm sure. Even if it doesn't go legal, India will be on everyone's sh!tlist and we can say goodbye to any future foreign weapons purchases, no matter how urgent. It's not that easy to pull a fast one.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Aug 2011 05:03

With a cool $100 Billion on the line in the next decade or so, no one dare make a "sh!tlist".

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 12 Aug 2011 09:30

MarcH wrote:part of the deal will be paid through the rediculous expensive M2K update

I don't know if the timelines workout as far as when the upgrade deal was finalized and the MRCA bids were submitted, but I do love a good conspiracy theory

For the price of the upgrade plus the additional cost of the new MICAs, the IAF could have bought brand-new SHs with AMRAAMs.

chackojoseph · Post by **chackojoseph** » 12 Aug 2011 10:36

In a deal of the magnitude, there will be speculations even after the aircrafts are retired. History books will be also writing about it. Price and deliveries will be the speculation in the current phase. EF and Rafale cannot meet the price, will go for retender etc are propogated by interests.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Aug 2011 11:57

Kiran,there is no need for personal abuse.Have a long cool drink! I guess that even the Russians,who are taking a hard look and ordering more MIG-29/29Ks are armchair admirals.I was merely advocating that the IAF test out the MIG-29Ks as they use the legacy Fulcrums and are upgrading 60+ of the same.If they were dissatisfied with the aircraft, why the need for an upgrade of them at all ? In fact why are the MIG-27s and MIG-21s ( Bisons) upgraded too?!

Here is a recent report from Flight Intl. on the same.If we are in dire straits due to depleting numbers,we will need extra aircraft apartf rom the MMRCA and what better way than to buy more of the same contemporary fighters that we already operate.If the M-2000 was still available,I would've suggested that we buy more upgraded versions.The LCA is yet to arrive in acceptable state for the IAF and even Mk-2 versions will only arrive when the first MMRCAs are initially inducted.So how else do we augment numbers within a short timeframe? There is alimnit as to how fast SU-30MKI production in India can reach-already production has been pushed as much as poss.,as well as acquiring new Flankers from Russia.Transfer of a sqd. of modernised TU-22 Backfire bombers,several available in Russia,would also be most welcome for either the IN or even IAF.

One suggestion to the French.I said this some time ago.Offer the transfer on signing the deal of a sqd. of Rafales immediately,which will be progressively replaced just as we did with the SU-30s which were not equipped as the MKIs were and transferred back to Russia,when the new Rafales arrive.This will accelerate training of our pilots on the aircraft,maintenance and support infrastructure and be available as well in any crisis.The French will be able to do it,the EF burdebed with deliveries to its allies,and the Saudis,will find it almost impossible (unless the UK wants to disarm!).

Korotkov said India is "completely satisfied" with the performance of its MiG-29K/KUBs, after racking up more than 1,000 flight hours during operational trials over a one-year period.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... ation.html

MiG-29 production enters transformation
By Vladimir Karnozov

Xcpts:

The company's plants in Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod and Lukhovitsy will shift to producing the newer MiG-29K/KUB/M1/M2/35 unified platform.

The manufacturer showed 24 classic airframes in the final assembly shop at its Moscow factory during a 3 August visit.

The majority were incomplete examples for Myanmar, while two were Indian air force fighters undergoing modernisation to the MiG-29upg configuration.

RSK MiG says three aircraft have been delivered to Myanmar, with three more being shipped to the customer and the last due to arrive in 2012.

The nation ordered "about 20 classics, chiefly MiG-29SE single-seaters and a few MiG-29UBs," said Vladimir Barkovsky, chief of the company's engineering centre.

The company's production process has been modernised to meet this delivery schedule, with several innovations having cut the lead time to one year.

"We will continue to innovate in our manufacturing methods to increase the [annual] output [of the Moscow plant] from 12 to 24", said general designer - general director Sergey Korotkov.

The company's current backlog for the type is five years, he added, noting that some customers "do not want to wait that long for their new airplanes".

RSK MiG is also performing upgrades for four countries including India and Peru, with the former project covering roughly 60 interceptors.

Six of these will be modified in Russia, with the remainder to be completed in India.

Two single-seat and one twin-seat aircraft are already undergoing flight tests at the Zkukovsky aerodrome near Moscow.

The upgraded MiG-29upg features a new radar, believed to be the Phazotron Zhuk-ME, plus replacement cockpit displays, a larger ventral fuel tank and the ability to use modern air-launched weapons.

Korotkov said 11 MiG-29K/KUB shipborne fighters have been delivered to the Indian navy, with the remaining aircraft from a 16-aircraft launch order to be handed over by the end of this year.

A follow-on contract for 29 more aircraft was signed earlier this year, with these to be delivered from 2012.

Korotkov said India is "completely satisfied" with the performance of its MiG-29K/KUBs, after racking up more than 1,000 flight hours during operational trials over a one-year period.

The Russian navy has also shown interest in the K/KUB model, he said, with an initial order for 12-14 aircraft potentially being signed during this month's MAKS air show in Moscow.

F-35 grounding continues indefinitely, but ground testing resumes
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... sting.html

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Aug 2011 16:02

What the Russians do, the Russians do. For one I believe that the Russian political wing has a bunch of goof balls that severely restricts proper decision making by others in that great country. That the RuAF wants to buy MiG-29/35 is their problem. (I recall Iggor stating that the MiG-35 was too small for the large nation (area)!!!! I suspect the MiG purchase is by armchair generals, who do not have a better option on the table. Recall that the MiG did not even make the cut in the MMRCA competition.)

The IN-MiG-29K topic is just that - a topic. Under the circumstances the IN has decided that these pups are the best. Does not mean that the MiGs are the best for the IN.

The IAF upgrades are reactive. Again, just like the IN, under the circumstances, that was the best approach. I doubt that the IAF would retain many of them if they had better options on the table.

The MiG in the MMRCA competition was deemed to have subpar engines and radar.

The correct solution seems to be in procuring more MMRCA planes - which is what seems to be the thinking.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Aug 2011 16:50

True,but at what cost,when they will be far more xpensive than superior Super-Flankers and at what delivery schedule? The suggestion about MIG-29/35s is nothing more than a very affordable acquisitions on all fronts to make up numbers,nothing more than 60+ to augment the Fulcrum upgrades which the IAF say will last us another 25 yrs!

sohels · Post by **sohels** » 12 Aug 2011 16:57

Buying more Russian planes cannot be the answer - diversification is one of the primary objectives of this tender. If above all else, we really needed these jets quickly and affordably, the Super Hornet would have been the one to go for. But since we did not do so, I guess the urgency is perhaps exaggerated?

Anthony Hines · Post by **Anthony Hines** » 12 Aug 2011 17:11

I suppose only time will tell. The Baniya mentality of the Babus can better be used in the other sectors. Defence of India is something that does not have a price.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Aug 2011 09:26

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/201 ... budget.cnn
wow, $300b already spent on jsf!?.. how are they going to break even.. this clearly shows, how defence projects in the khan land totally separates production & life cycle costs with r&d costs.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 13 Aug 2011 22:30

France might undergo some gut wrenching economic turmoil in the near future. This will strengthen India's hand in the negotiations if Rafael becomes L1 in place of EFT. This is time to strike and demand from the French that this fighter will not see service anywhere in the middle east or Pakistan or any other country which might give China a good look at this fighter. Nor should any components of the fighter, be its electronics, or weapon systems, etc be made available to China or Pakistan or any of their middle eastern or Asian allies.

I would have hoped that we could use this deal to induce France to give up its campaign to have the European arms embargo against China lifted. But that would really be aiming for the stars, when we have planned and budgeted only for the moon.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Aug 2011 22:51

The point I would like to make is that r&d costs can't be part of production line and product cost. These two can't be joined, and the seller asking for higher price. By the same token, if India ToTs, we have our own production line setup cost that needs to be separately budgeted.

So, there should be an offset in production line cost, that does not get factored into profit making. Now, the pure product cost could be worked out for a deal, that for example like the Ef2K is willing to offer us on the partnership basis. So, as a partner, we can rule out all those r&d costs, their production line cost ( in the sense except for the first 18 that we get from their factories)... not sure, how many more we will get components from their factory, but we can factor in, along with cost of producing it local.

In the sense, within a partnership framework, the cost of producing the components and LRUs is what we have to get to, if are talking about Ef2k, and plus whatever agreed profit margin established by the consortium.

Now, with Rafale, it is entirely a game that France would like to play.. it would be all sarkozisk deal.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Aug 2011 23:23

GeorgeWelch wrote:
MarcH wrote:part of the deal will be paid through the rediculous expensive M2K update
I don't know if the timelines workout as far as when the upgrade deal was finalized and the MRCA bids were submitted, but I do love a good conspiracy theory

For the price of the upgrade plus the additional cost of the new MICAs, the IAF could have bought brand-new SHs with AMRAAMs.

Wiki says the 24 RAAF Super Hornets contracted in 2007 cost A$2.9bn. On a per plane basis, this sounds more expensive than the IAF Mirage 2000 upgrade contract, signed in 2011 (i.e. 4 years of inflation also to be accounted for).

What in your view is the cost of a brand new SH with AMRAAMs?

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 14 Aug 2011 04:52

eklavya wrote:Wiki says the 24 RAAF Super Hornets contracted in 2007 cost A$2.9bn. On a per plane basis, this sounds more expensive than the IAF Mirage 2000 upgrade contract, signed in 2011 (i.e. 4 years of inflation also to be accounted for).

What in your view is the cost of a brand new SH with AMRAAMs?

OK, a few assumptions here.

The Australian price includes training, simulators, spares, future maintenance, etc, etc

In other words, the startup expense of switching to a new fighter type.

This is assuming you got SHs for both the M2K upgrade and the MRCA. If you got them for just the M2K upgrade and then got something else for MRCA, the economics are a lot more dubious.

But if you're covering the 'startup' costs as part of the MRCA anyways, suddenly SH instead of M2K looks much more attractive.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... ?prtpage=1

$2.4 billion (Rs 10,900 crore) to upgrade 51 planes

$3.3+ billion (Rs 15,000+ crore) with 450 MICA
so
$903+ million (Rs 4,100+ crore) for 450 MICA

$47 million/plane to upgrade
$2 million/missile

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_F/A ... per_Hornet

$55 million flyaway cost

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMRAAM

$700k AIM-120D

51*$55 million = $2.8 billion
450*$700k = $315 million

SH total: less than $3.2 billion
M2K total: more than $3.3 billion

not only would it be cheaper, the planes themselves would be 25 years newer and that doesn't even begin to look at the capabilities difference

Pogula · Post by **Pogula** » 14 Aug 2011 11:33

GeorgeWelch wrote: SH total: less than $3.2 billion
M2K total: more than $3.3 billion

not only would it be cheaper, the planes themselves would be 25 years newer and that doesn't even begin to look at the capabilities difference

Forget hypothetical scenarios George, and focus on what is at hand now. SH is not part of MMRCA anymore. So why discuss that? Analyse the costs within the known boundaries of not having SH in MMRCA any longer.

In this light, $3.2 Billion for SH does not include any of the startup, training and life-cycle costs; a significant chunk of change, far from ignorable. And so, M2K deal, even at $3.3 Billion, is a safer option (both politically and economically).

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 14 Aug 2011 17:40

> So why discuss that?

The deal for the M2K upgrade has already been signed, so why discuss alternatives to that?

*shrug*

(Of course as has been mentioned, it's possible that neither MRCA competitor will meet the baseline price, and then who knows what could happen.)

manum · Post by **manum** » 14 Aug 2011 17:48

(Of course as has been mentioned, it's possible that neither MRCA competitor will meet the baseline price, and then who knows what could happen.)

the world will end...we'll be doomed without a plane, as China and Pakistan will attack us together...

And we'll wish...if we had heard what americans said and bought SH's...

There is still time lets go amarika...

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 14 Aug 2011 18:44

I think what we are all overlooking or underestimating is the impact of the attack of the bond markets on European economies. All the major economies in the EF consortium: Germany, Spain, UK and Italy are going to have to make wrenching changes. The last three because they have unsustainable levels of government debt and GDP growth rates that are going to be slower than the rate of increase in debt from deficits. The higher rates they are going to have to pay will compound that problem.

Germany will have a problem with its banks that hold a lot of this debt plus they are cutting defense. France has a problem with both the sovereign debt and its banks. They are going to have to cut a a lot on the social side and you forget about major defense purchases. The next couple of weeks are likely to see a major bond market assault on these countries and the German will come under pressure too because of their banks.

So what? Well, unless they (France or the EF group) eat the development cost in the MMRCA and they throw in the 'ToT' and the offset, you're looking at $100MM+ per Rafale or EF. For 189 (126+63 options), you're talking ~$20 billion.

You can be sure that when this number hits the media, that LM and Boeing are going to be in there rubbing it in as will the Russians who will conjure up the 'Stealth SU-30MKI' which bridges the gap to the FGFA . This will be accompanied by the usual CAG and suspects who use it as a stick to beat the UPA. You can also bet the commies will be encouraged by the PRC and pakis to rail against the purchase.

I'm hoping for a better outcome but experience shows there's a 50-50 chance of this being the usual fiasco despite all the hard work put in.

Hope it works out better.