Talk by Bharat Karnad at IISc on 30 August 2011

[shiv]

First the invitation on email which explains what the talk was to be about. Will post a summary of the talk later.

"Nuclear Bombs and Nuclear Energy in India"


by

Sri Bharat Karnad
Professor, Center for Policy Research & Writer


Date: 30th Aug 2011 (Today)
Time: 5:30 PM
Venue: Satish Dhawan Auditorium, IISc
Tea: 5:15 PM

ALL ARE WELCOME

Abstract

Very little separates military and civilian uses of the
atom.During the starting years of Independence, the Nuclear Vision was
grand and Dr. Homi J Bhabha’s policy of “growing science” and the
means he used to drive Indian policy in its nascent stage were
imaginative. By 1956, Asia’s first nuclear reactor, Apsara, was
commissioned in Trombay. By early 1964, India had acquired the bomb
making capability with the plutonium reprocessing unit going on line.
But Nehru’s indecisiveness on weaponisation led to India missing the
opportunity to be the first Asian nuclear military power and pioneer
member of the Nuclear weapons club. Indecisiveness has characterized
the country’s nuclear military policy ever since, as it hobbled along
on autopilot. A clear strategy and programmatic thrust never
materialized despite the 1974 test, which obtained a proven weapon
design and, a quarter of century later, the 1998 Shakti series of
tests, which proved the thermonuclear weapon design to be a dud. In
both these instances when the Indian government should have carried on
with open-ended testing resulting in full-fledged weaponisation, it
chose to put a stop to testing. Consequently, India has a half-baked
minimal nuclear deterrent lacking credibility.

On the civilian side, Bhabha’s 3-stage plan for energy security has
faced tough going because of insufficient financial investment to
realize speedy development of the 2nd stage breeder reactor and the
3rd stage thorium reactor technologies. With the 2006 India-US nuclear
deal, the Indian nuclear programme suffered a triple whammy. Besides
formally foreswearing further nuclear testing, the Manmohan Singh
regime undermined the integrity of the Indian programme by separating
its civilian and military parts, accepted IAEA safeguards on the dual
use indigenous natural-uranium powered INDU reactors and, by choosing
to buy Light Water reactors from abroad, ensured the prosperity of
Russian, American and French nuclear industries while continuing to
starve the Indian breeder and thorium reactor projects of funds.India
as a result is being frog-marched into dependence on inordinately
expensive imported reactors run on imported fuel.

About the Speaker

BHARAT KARNAD is a Professor in National Security Studies at the
Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and author of a number of
books, including ''India's Nuclear Policy" (Praeger, 2008) and
"Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of
Strategy", consulted by the Prime Minister, Minister of Defence, and
Minister for External Affairs, and Members of Parliament. He was
Member of the (First) National Security Advisory Board and Member of
the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, National Security Council, Govt.
of India, and, formerly, Adviser, Defence Expenditure, (Tenth) Finance
Commission, India.

Prof. Karnad has been Visiting Scholar at Princeton University,
University of Pennsylvania, and University of Illinois, and Foreign
Fellow at the Henry L. Stimson Centre, Washington, DC, and the
Shanghai Institutes of International Studies. He conducts the annual
Strategic Nuclear Orientation Course for HQ Integrated Defence Staff,
Ministry of Defence for senior military officers (of Brigadier-rank
and equivalent) and is a regular lecturer at the Annual DRDO Directors
Conference, and top military training institutions: National Defence
College, IAS Academy and National Police Academy.

[RajeshA]

A clear strategy and programmatic thrust never materialized despite the 1974 test, which obtained a proven weapon design and, a quarter of century later, the 1998 Shakti series of tests, which proved the thermonuclear weapon design to be a dud. In both these instances when the Indian government should have carried on with open-ended testing resulting in full-fledged weaponisation, it chose to put a stop to testing. Consequently, India has a half-baked minimal nuclear deterrent lacking credibility.

India should tell USA, either they ensure that Tibet does not have any nuclear weapons or nuclear capable missiles deployed there by some given date, or India is going to resume nuclear testing, as we feel threatened.

And then we should test nukes at least 2-3 times every year, until India is completely satisfied, and then we should test some more! Duniya ki parvah nahin!

[gakakkad]

Very little separates military and civilian uses of the
atom.During the starting years of Independence, the Nuclear Vision was
grand and Dr. Homi J Bhabha’s policy of “growing science” and the
means he used to drive Indian policy in its nascent stage were
imaginative. By 1956, Asia’s first nuclear reactor, Apsara, was
commissioned in Trombay. By early 1964, India had acquired the bomb
making capability with the plutonium reprocessing unit going on line.
But Nehru’s indecisiveness on weaponisation led to India missing the
opportunity to be the first Asian nuclear military power and pioneer
member of the Nuclear weapons club. Indecisiveness has characterized
the country’s nuclear military policy ever since, as it hobbled along
on autopilot. A clear strategy and programmatic thrust never
materialized despite the 1974 test, which obtained a proven weapon
design and, a quarter of century later, the 1998 Shakti series of
tests, which proved the thermonuclear weapon design to be a dud. In
both these instances when the Indian government should have carried on
with open-ended testing resulting in full-fledged weaponisation, it
chose to put a stop to testing. Consequently, India has a half-baked
minimal nuclear deterrent lacking credibility.

Spot on..Agree with this one. Nehru was the most pathetic fool of a man one could get . If there is one man I am asked to blame for the mess it is JLN..

With the 2006 India-US nuclear
deal, the Indian nuclear programme suffered a triple whammy. Besides
formally foreswearing further nuclear testing, the Manmohan Singh
regime undermined the integrity of the Indian programme by separating
its civilian and military parts, accepted IAEA safeguards on the dual
use indigenous natural-uranium powered INDU reactors and, by choosing
to buy Light Water reactors from abroad, ensured the prosperity of
Russian, American and French nuclear industries while continuing to
starve the Indian breeder and thorium reactor projects of funds.India
as a result is being frog-marched into dependence on inordinately
expensive imported reactors run on imported fuel.

We have enough un-safeguarded reactors for weapons purpose. And we can build more .The deal cannot stop us from expanding our weapons program..The deal per se was not bad . And we don't need to buy reactors from practically anyone ..There is no compulsion..

Our Thorium program is going well indeed. We are presently working on a pebble bed design .

And nothing , absolutely nothing in the deal prevents us from testing. It merely states that the US would stop cooperation if we test.

But the deal was not about technology or reactors. It was just about fuel . Now we can freely buy uranium from any country we want to and use it on our reactors.

[shiv]

Summary of the talk:

Dr. Karnad started with a brief history of the Indian nuclear program and particularly praised Homi Bhabha's vision in putting India on the world nuclear map. He conceived of India's much vaunted 3 stage nuclear program which would use India's Thorium to produce limitless nuclear fuel for reactors and, as a side effect also produce limitless amounts of fissionable material for bombs. Unfortunately, Nehru refused to weaponize and was the first of many Indian political leaders who have caused India to miss the bus.

The Atomic Energy commission always come directly under the PM and communication between AEC director and the PM is direct - and that is how it is now, as it was in Nehru's day. No paper trail is left. This aids security, but it also gets disrupted when one of the team is removed - such as happened when Nehru died. Shastri did nothing. Indira, who allowed one test in 1974 and had promised to allow another 4 or 5 tests failed to do that and India missed one more bus. On the subject of security Karnad quipped that one additional layer of security that was maintained by the Atomic Energy scientists was "Tamil code" - with so many Tamil speaking scientists (Iyengar, Chidambaram, Santhanam and others) conversations were in Tamil using code words for crucial information so that any one who translated the Tamil would still not figure out what the hell was being said.

Karnad bluntly stated that India's 1998 "Thermonuclear test" was a dud. In effect he said that the only "reliable" and tested weapon that India can field is a 20 kiloton weapon. He was scathing in pointing out that India's "response" to a Chinese nuclear threat with each missile bearing a one megaton warhead was piffling and useless. He said that Vajpayee had no reason to state place a moratorium on testing. The announcement of a moratorium was unnecessary and inane. He said that one thermonuclear bomb has 2000 things that need to work right for it to explode and one failed test and a moratorium removed all chances for India to ensure that we developed a proper nuclear arsenal. This was another bus missed by India.

Prof Karnad stated that even went with someone (maybe Mishra or Jaswant Singh or someone - I can't recall) to meet Manmohan Singh. They tried to explain thses things to the man but he totally blanked out. he was not interested or did not understand. The final blow to India's nuclear plan has come with the India-US nuclear deal which has ensured that we will spend billions to support nuclear programs and nuclear workers in the US, France and russia while money is sucked away from India's three stage program - gradually killing Homi Bhabha's vision.

Karnad said that India is heading the wrong way. He did not specifically state solutions but said that India should provide nuclear arms to Vietnam. he said the Chinese have successfully fought off even teh Americans in Korea, but it's only the Vietnamese who give them nightmares. Brahmos and nuclear weapons from India must be given to Vietnam to ensure that Chinese ships can't even get as far as the Straits of Malacca.

he also said that it is stupid to concentrate on Pakistan. Pakistan is not the problem. China is the problem. Karnad said that India has been stupid in talking peace with Pakistan while remaining militarily very threatening to Pakistan - scaring them shitless (my word, not Karnad's). He said that the peace offer with Pakistan should have been accompanied by a withdrawal of Indian missiles to reduce the fear that the Pakistanis feel.

The talk ended with some interaction and the presentation of a memento to him by me as I seemed to be the only old fossil in the hall. I spoke to Karnad very briefly after the event and he left cards for anyone to contact him. I will give folks the contact info if you email me on bennedose at hotmail provided I know who the email is from.

[gakakkad]

Shiv sir , I wonder if you could just ask one question to him.

What if India does not buy reactors from outside ? Or buys just a few of them . The deal permits us to buy uranium . And we have signed contracts with several countries just for fuel . Before the deal we could not import Uranium . And even Kakodkar said that the deal was only about fuel .

Also W.R.T our thorium research. It has not been stopped . Most Journal articles on Thorium are from India . Funding is a problem. But the funds used for buying the reactors cannot be an excuse for stopping indigenous research.. What is his take on it? I mean indigenous research and buying LWR's is not mutually exclusive. Both can co-exist.

[shiv]

Shiv sir , I wonder if you could just ask one question to him.

What if India does not buy reactors from outside ? Or buys just a few of them . The deal permits us to buy uranium . And we have signed contracts with several countries just for fuel . Before the deal we could not import Uranium . And even Kakodkar said that the deal was only about fuel .

Also W.R.T our thorium research. It has not been stopped . Most Journal articles on Thorium are from India . Funding is a problem. But the funds used for buying the reactors cannot be an excuse for stopping indigenous research.. What is his take on it? I mean indigenous research and buying LWR's is not mutually exclusive. Both can co-exist.

Kakkadji I apologise for stating the date as 30 Sept. The talk was over on 30th Aug. I have corrected the title

[RajeshA]

Karnad said that India is heading the wrong way. He did not specifically state solutions but said that India should provide nuclear arms to Vietnam. he said the Chinese have successfully fought off even teh Americans in Korea, but it's only the Vietnamese who give them nightmares. Brahmos and nuclear weapons from India must be given to Vietnam to ensure that Chinese ships can't even get as far as the Straits of Malacca.

Hey that's what's I have been sayin' the whole time!!! I started saying this exactly three years ago!

[sum]

He said that the peace offer with Pakistan should have been accompanied by a withdrawal of Indian missiles to reduce the fear that the Pakistanis feel.

Shiv-avare,
Did you press Karnad-ji further on this point? Why did he want us to withdraw even our missiles against TSP?

( Luckily, he didn't seem to ask for us to disband our strike corps and IBGs facing Pak)

[sum]

Prof Karnad stated that even went with someone (maybe Mishra or Jaswant Singh or someone - I can't recall) to meet Manmohan Singh. They tried to explain thses things to the man but he totally blanked out. he was not interested or did not understand.

*sigh*

[Jarita]

Prof Karnad stated that even went with someone (maybe Mishra or Jaswant Singh or someone - I can't recall) to meet Manmohan Singh. They tried to explain thses things to the man but he totally blanked out. he was not interested or did not understand.

*sigh*

Who still believes that this guy represents India

[chaanakya]

Who still believes that this guy represents India

Did he ever get elected to LS to represent anything except the nominated view point?

[RajeshA]

Some Jump Points into BRF discussions about India providing Vietnam with Nuclear Technology, something Bharat Karnad talked about

• Vietnam: The Ideal Candidate for Proliferation [01 Sep, 2008]
• If China Wants to Nuclearize our Neighborhood ... [17 Feb, 2009]
• Vietnam is Ideal Partner for India [10 Aug, 2009] response to brihaspati
• The Only Country that can Stand up to China [10 Aug, 2009] response to Arun_S
• Moving Towards Break-Out Capability [10 Aug, 2009]
• Applying China's Pakistan Doctrine to Vietnam [12 Aug, 2009]
• India Needs is a North Korea or a Pakistan not in the Chinese Mold, but Rather in Indian Mold [12 Aug, 2009]
• Providing Nuke-Tech to Vietnam Disassembled [12 Aug, 2009]
• Not Just Taiwan [20 Jul, 2010]
• Start by Setting up Nuclear Plants [06 Sep, 2010]
• Vietnam, the Tough Boy Middleman for Nuclear Proliferation [08 Sep, 2010]
• Nuclearization of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam
• Vietnam Can Do Nuclear Testing for India
• Indian Proliferation to Vietnam vs. Chinese Proliferation to Pakistan
• Making China Just One of the Many Nuclear Powers in East Asia
• India & USA Signed Agreements with Vietnam in 2001 to Extend Assistance for Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy
• Vietnam Can Help Both India & Taiwan with Nukes
• Nuclear Vietnam Useful for Taiwanese Independence
• China Proliferated First
• Vietnam wanting Prithvi Missile, Brahmos Missile
• India, Vietnam to Conduct Warfare Tactics Exchange
• Vietnam is Acquiring an Impressive List of Nuclear Armed Allies
• String of Nukes All Around PRC
• Develop Constituencies Willing to Nuclearize Vietnam
• China Will Motivate Vietnam to go Nuclear
• Other ASEAN Members Should Become Less Apprehensive of Nuclear Vietnam
• Nukes Do Help
• Let's Not Forget the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979
• Does Vietnam Want Nukes
• Vietnam Plans to Build 14 Nuclear Reactors
• Nukes for Vietname ASAP
• Vietnam Crucial for Testing
• USA should Allow Vietnam to Go Nuclear
• India Enters China's Backyard

[RajeshA]

X-Posted from TIRP Thread

I will summarize Dr. Karnad's talk in a separate appropriate thread - maybe I will start a new thread. People might be surprised at some things Dr. Karnad said but I am talking crap unless I post what he said first.

Please do post as to what Karnad mentioned.... if a "super hawk" in Indian establishment speaks like MSAiyar ( as per your earlier post), cant even imagine the language of our "doves" ( MKB is a fine example)

sum ji,

Bharat Karnad is indeed a hawk. What he is saying is that we should not fall for the trap set up by China - to get trapped in an unending struggle with TSP. We have much bigger challenges than TSP.

He somehow feels that TSP is a failed state already (at least in his mind) and does not need too much of our time. I disagree with him somewhat. I think TSP still needs to be taken down and taken down fast, without expending too much of our time.

However we should concentrate on the Chinese Threat, much more than we have done till date. Whenever China was portrayed as India's most potent threat, it was laughed at by some senior Maulanas here, and the focus was changed to American help to Pakistan. It can happen.

GoI seems to be always 30 years behind China is strategic planning. Indian planning is far too defensive oriented. We need to get out of this mold.

Bharat Karnad is saying our first priority is to start nuclear testing again. Many would concur here. I do it wholeheartedly. He is saying we should provide nukes to the Vietnamese. I have been advocating that since the last 3 years on BRF.

[ShauryaT]

He said that the peace offer with Pakistan should have been accompanied by a withdrawal of Indian missiles to reduce the fear that the Pakistanis feel.

Shiv-avare,
Did you press Karnad-ji further on this point? Why did he want us to withdraw even our missiles against TSP?

( Luckily, he didn't seem to ask for us to disband our strike corps and IBGs facing Pak)

Because TSP is in no position to threaten us and the IA is wasting their time. Our threatening posture in the plains will only result in a series of issues that will only fall on India like a card stacked up as dominos. Our only realistic gainful offensive stance against TSP is in the mountains and incidentally these are also the type of capabilities needed against PRC. The IOR is huge both south east and south west, with opportunities and PRC is competing with us in this region for strategic space. It is high time we reorient our focus in large and great measure. I have been myself critical of the IA still using Prithvi as part of the strategic deterrent against TSP.

For further questions on BK, if you genuinely have them, please contact Shiv for this contact. I know, that he will be kind enough to reply to some genuine queries.

Added: This is not to say that terrorism from TSP is not to be dealt with. The issue is the terrorism threat requires a non conventional series of responses. A conventional response (and even that not to be exercised) is not the answer to it.

[tejas]

So it is indeed India that is nook nude(N^3 where are you). After all this tamasha a Nagasaki nuke is all this super power to be can muster

It is truly disheartening to think about the spineless fools who have "led" India. The first member of the dynasty laid the foundations for Parasitic state undertakings (PSU) and made poverty inclusive. The second member, who seems to have many fans on this forum, established labor laws and a myriad of financial regulations that ensured India would remain poor while Southeast Asia surged forward. They thus assured India's subservience to the West due to dependence on aid for survival. My hatred for them cannot be put into words.

But it is also extremely saddening to see ABV terminating testing when the job was only half done. This was unforgivable. For those who think India will gift it's puny nukes to Vietnam are you kidding me? Thanks to govt ownership of defense design and production India is the world's largest arms importer. We export nukes to Vietnam and we will see a cutoff of all arms from the west and be reliant and upon gouged by Ivan. Also software and BPO
services are likely to be blocked.

Countries can only get so far when they grow despite their govt not because of it. There remain open sewers in my birthplace of Tenali in Andhra Pradesh in the year 2011. I remember accidentally falling into one many decades ago. I remember thinking as a 9 year old child any govt that would allow open sewers should be thrown out ( not having seen any in massaland where I had come with my parents as a baby). Yet AP votes Congress year after year. India I weep for thee.

[ShauryaT]

But it is also extremely saddening to see ABV terminating testing when the job was only half done. This was unforgivable.

While ABV will have to bear his share of responsibility, no one - I repeat not ONE of the concerned advisers to the PM advised the PM NOT to declare a moratorium on testing, soon after the tests. It is difficult for a political leader to make these calls alone when his technical and other advisers themselves are providing the wrong advise.

[csharma]

Why does Bharat Karnad say India can produce only 20Kt weapons. Didn't Arun Prakash say that there should be no doubt about a 400Kt(?) boosted fission bomb.

[negi]

^ Admiral said 200kt.

[RajeshA]

Basically if Bharat Karnad, as truth or as falsehood, is saying that we don't have a credible minimum deterrent, then I support his approach.

If the price for getting India to start testing again is the credibility of the deterrent, then I support paying this price. Let the Deterrent fall. We should build a new one!

[Gerard]

Let us assume India does not have a bomb >20 kt.
Where will it obtain the bigger bomb? Buy it from China? From the UK? Does Tesco sell bombs on aisle 5?

Test what? If the nuclear establishment is incompetent and dishonest and failed to produce a big bomb after 25 years of design, why the faith in these same dishonest and incompetent folks?

Clearly BARC is full of bumbling, lying fools. The Government of India erred greatly when it did not fire the bunch of those imbeciles and hire folk from BRF who are expert in drawing warheads on the computer. Forumites would have made the big bomb by now. Microsoft Paint and Adobe Photoshop rule.

[RajeshA]

So other nuclear weapon countries have been fools to carry out so many nuclear tests! Are our scientists superhumans that they need to test just once and then they get everything to work.

Testing is the basis of credibility.

[ShauryaT]

^ Admiral said 200kt.

Also, let us remember there was no weaponized BF design tested. BK is simply saying, you do not prove credibility in a lab, for things nuclear weapons. In the lab, there are many options, the credibility of which is in the eyes of the beholder, but none of these lab weapons are without doubt.

Gerard: The DRDO as an - institution, accused the BARC folks of lying - not just BRF members, past or present.

This issue refuses to die, none of the passions for the issue have mellowed and probably should not.

[ramana]

So we come full circle again.

RajeshA, If the deterrent is based on the TN then its not credible. Even the scientists hedged and said in 1998 it was weaponisable. They did not say it was weaponised. So where is the question of deterrent failing?

It must be working for PRC for they are going all out to support TSP to make them the foil. We need to cut off the hand that wields the foil and not focus on the foil.

But there is a need for the talk by Karnad and am glad he did it. And am glad that Shiv got to present the memento to him.

[ShauryaT]

It must be working for PRC for they are going all out to support TSP to make them the foil. We need to cut off the hand that wields the foil and not focus on the foil.

From a PRC perspective, both India and TSP are "barbarians". India a bigger one and nothing like having one barbarian fight another to keep them away from the interests of the middle kingdom.

TSP will live out its useful energy trying to pin India down, India would be a bigger fool to fall into this trap and let this happen!

[ramana]

Shiv summarizing quoted Bharat Karnad as

The Atomic Energy commission always come directly under the PM and communication between AEC director and the PM is direct - and that is how it is now, as it was in Nehru's day. No paper trail is left. This aids security, but it also gets disrupted when one of the team is removed - such as happened when Nehru died. Shastri did nothing. Indira, who allowed one test in 1974 and had promised to allow another 4 or 5 tests failed to do that and India missed one more bus. On the subject of security Karnad quipped that one additional layer of security that was maintained by the Atomic Energy scientists was "Tamil code" - with so many Tamil speaking scientists (Iyengar, Chidambaram, Santhanam and others) conversations were in Tamil using code words for crucial information so that any one who translated the Tamil would still not figure out what the hell was being said.

Karnad bluntly stated that India's 1998 "Thermonuclear test" was a dud. In effect he said that the only "reliable" and tested weapon that India can field is a 20 kiloton weapon. He was scathing in pointing out that India's "response" to a Chinese nuclear threat with each missile bearing a one megaton warhead was piffling and useless. He said that Vajpayee had no reason to state place a moratorium on testing. The announcement of a moratorium was unnecessary and inane. He said that one thermonuclear bomb has 2000 things that need to work right for it to explode and one failed test and a moratorium removed all chances for India to ensure that we developed a proper nuclear arsenal. This was another bus missed by India.

The red colored statements each follow from one another. There is single chain of command without any peer review. The PM relied on his team who told him it worked and he announced the moratarium to stave of the G-8 sanctions which were in the offing.

BTW make a list of how many times Mrs G and Rao were about to test and think why they called it off?

ABV had to rely on his advisers and took the chance as the options were closing.

While now all the hecklers can take a moral stand. Those were trying times:Ghauri test after the Pak Test in PRC in early 90s.It means weaponisation of TSP arsenal. Till then F-16 based stuff could be shot down by IAF. However with Ghauri more of India was at risk. And the possibility of PRC taking adverse position as the head of UNSC that year, Clinton kowtowing to PRC and declaring them Masters of Asia. And all that. The counter to Ghauri was not another Agony test which is what US was expecting. Maybe not, for Richardson sort of understood it and demanded no nuke test.
So ABV played the cards he got and he finessed it.
As for MMS he got the nuke deal and with it ended the nuke pariah status for India.
The deal is about nuke commerce and ending sanctions. And it did in its own way. To counter Hyde, India has its own liability clauses written in law. Fukushima disaster showed the operator will be left to fend for themselves in Union carbide fashion. So in a way Indian liability law was prescient.

As for the future its up to the P-5 if they want to keep the moratorium in place. They need to ensure that India is not forced to revoke it.

BTW its ~13 years after POK II.

Karnad has one a valuable thing to remind people of the tests. It serves a purpose.

[shiv]

He said that the peace offer with Pakistan should have been accompanied by a withdrawal of Indian missiles to reduce the fear that the Pakistanis feel.

Shiv-avare,
Did you press Karnad-ji further on this point? Why did he want us to withdraw even our missiles against TSP?

( Luckily, he didn't seem to ask for us to disband our strike corps and IBGs facing Pak)

No - but like I said I am certain he will be willing to share his views with those who contact him. He left a set of visiting cards specifically for that purpose and I think every interested person should really contact him directly and ask him. If I were to get into a one on one with him - I would need at least an hour of conversation with him to begin to get answers to my own questions. We had 45 minutes of interaction with him and I got one question in as did many others.

[gakakkad]

The TNW issue has already been discussed in depth in 3 previous threads. First thing is that there was undeniable evidence of a fusion having taken place. Guruprabhu et al explained it in depth . Second thing is that there is undeniable evidence that the yield was higher than 20 kt .

Having said that both IG AND ABV made the biggest mistake by not conducting 20+ tests simultaneously and completely weaponising . JLN was a (#@$#@#@##). But others should have known better . So in real sense we do have a MCD and probably functional TNW . TNW is by no means a bluff .

But now is not the right time to test. I can assure you that world is not getting peaceful anytime soon. So there will present moments when we ll be compelled to test.

[negi]

^ Sorry to nitpick it was not a TNW it was a thermonuclear device.

[sivab]

Sorry for the interruption...

http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/23272/H ... stoday.pdf

Adventures in scientific nuclear diplomacy

Siegfried S. Hecker

former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory

My visits to India, by contrast, have proved to be quite
productive. Following the “peaceful” nuclear explosion India
conducted in 1974, its nuclear complex was under sanctions
for 34 years, until the US–India nuclear deal in 2008. But over
the past six years, I have made five visits there, traveling to
see the Bhabha Atomic Research Center in Mumbai, which
houses both civilian and weapons research, and the Indira
Gandhi Center for Atomic Research in Kalpakkam, which is
focused primarily on fast reactors. I toured Indian commercial
nuclear reactor facilities and learned about their ambitious
plans for a three-stage nuclear energy program. I found
a superbly trained community of nuclear scientists and engineers
with a passion for nuclear energy—the bomb business
at the laboratories appears to be more of what an Indian colleague
called a “cottage industry.”

Constrained by sanctions, India developed most of its
nuclear energy capabilities indigenously, especially its excellent
nuclear R&D; the extent and functionality of its nuclear
experimental facilities are matched only by those in Russia
and are far ahead of what is left in the US. I believe India has
the most technically ambitious and innovative nuclear energy
program in the world. Our government has been concerned
about leakage of US nuclear technologies to India,
when we should instead be trying to learn from that country.

But according to BK and BRF, Indian nuclear scientists are incompetent liars who botched TN weapon.

Oh wait, that epithet applies only to AK, RC and Sikka. Yeah right, Shahjahan built Taj Mahal. All those hundreds of scientists and engineers who were involved with testing, verification and building the arsenal are incompetent fools. Or so say arm chair specialists who have never touched a nuclear weapon, let alone design one.

KS and his friends are saints. They don't have any agenda. Out of office, they can say self-contradicting crap and will get a free pass.

Never mind, back to scheduled programming...

[Sanku]

Guruprabhu et al explained it in depth .

That explanation was pure bull shit, and I am being very charitable.

[rajrang]

I can assume that this point has been noted before: Since PRC is far more powerful than TSP, if India's military preparations are PRC centric, then India can easily take care of TSP in a military confrontation. This is an intrinsic advantage in BK's recommendation that India focus more on PRC. Imagine India having 20 mountain divisions and in a confrontation with TSP, some of these can be moved to J&K to threaten POK and Gilgit.

[Singha]

leaving aside the TN issue, some of us have ranted about the need to convert the three strike corps into mountain strike corps. hand over their plains kit to the new CBG/rapid formations and requip for war in tibet and kashgar. these would hugely beef up the sole new mountain strike corps being newly formed.

if 250km thrust to the Indus is not on the menu in a nuclear setting the strike corps have outlived their purpose and need to be broken up and repurposed either as strike corps or strike brigades for the mountains.

maybe leave one in kutch area, and convert the other two atleast.

[RajeshA]

RajeshA, If the deterrent is based on the TN then its not credible. Even the scientists hedged and said in 1998 it was weaponisable. They did not say it was weaponised. So where is the question of deterrent failing?

As per shiv saar, this is what Bharat Karnad says:

Karnad bluntly stated that India's 1998 "Thermonuclear test" was a dud. In effect he said that the only "reliable" and tested weapon that India can field is a 20 kiloton weapon. He was scathing in pointing out that India's "response" to a Chinese nuclear threat with each missile bearing a one megaton warhead was piffling and useless.

That basically mean that wrt China, we don't really have a deterrent. Perhaps against Pakistan the deterrent suffices.

It must be working for PRC for they are going all out to support TSP to make them the foil. We need to cut off the hand that wields the foil and not focus on the foil.

But there is a need for the talk by Karnad and am glad he did it. And am glad that Shiv got to present the memento to him.

I would consider the deterrent to be working against China, when they stop being pushy against India. PRC's deterrent is intimidating, but Pakistan's deterrent bolstered by China is destabilizing to India.

IMHO, using a proxy against India should not be considered as a mark of respect for our deterrent. Chinese ambitions against India go beyond simply deterrence.

[vera_k]

But according to BK and BRF, Indian nuclear scientists are incompetent liars who botched TN weapon.

The man does say that the weapons business is not a serious pursuit for the Indian nuclear program. I don't see how anything can be perfected using just 1 test. And if the contention is that the Indian program is sophisticated enough to do most everything via simulations, then why even conduct the 1 test?

[merlin]

Sorry for the interruption...

But according to BK and BRF, Indian nuclear scientists are incompetent liars who botched TN weapon.

No, no, no. They are so fcuking superhumanly brilliant that they just need one test to come out with a gold standard weapon.

Oh wait, that epithet applies only to AK, RC and Sikka. Yeah right, Shahjahan built Taj Mahal. All those hundreds of scientists and engineers who were involved with testing, verification and building the arsenal are incompetent fools. Or so say arm chair specialists who have never touched a nuclear weapon, let alone design one.

KS and his friends are saints. They don't have any agenda. Out of office, they can say self-contradicting crap and will get a free pass.

Never mind, back to scheduled programming...

Let the armed forces say that they believe that the TNW is credible, weaponized and factored into their plans. Otherwise it has no value.

[merlin]

So other nuclear weapon countries have been fools to carry out so many nuclear tests! Are our scientists superhumans that they need to test just once and then they get everything to work.

Testing is the basis of credibility.

Don't waste your breath on people who's minds are already made up.

[csharma]

Leaving the TN aside, is it accurate to say that all India can deliver is a 20KT bomb? Can't India make 200Kt reliable boosted fission bomb? Would be heavier or sure compared to TN.

[RajeshA]

I think the scientists should simply go ahead and do the tests, preparing for the tests in secret. Without the Prime Minister's approval.

Just after tests, one can either tell the PM to partake in the glory and own up to the tests and protect those who did it or make himself the international butt of jokes that he doesn't know what is going on in the country, and GoI has no control over the nuclear weapons program.

Of course, I fully expect to hear, I am talking out of my musharraf!

[Avinash Rav]

X-Posted from TIRP Thread


Bharat Karnad is saying our first priority is to start nuclear testing again. Many would concur here. I do it wholeheartedly. He is saying we should provide nukes to the Vietnamese. I have been advocating that since the last 3 years on BRF.

Regarding testing the nukes.. Why is it that we have to test it in India ? Why dont we do that in Vietnam just like China did in Pak ? There is always the case of deniability ! This way Vietnam has nukes to scare the s**t out of chinkis and we have a new reliable design...!

If this question too newbish let me know. I will take to newbie thread.

[RajeshA]

X-Posted from TIRP Thread


Bharat Karnad is saying our first priority is to start nuclear testing again. Many would concur here. I do it wholeheartedly. He is saying we should provide nukes to the Vietnamese. I have been advocating that since the last 3 years on BRF.

Regarding testing the nukes.. Why is it that we have to test it in India ? Why dont we do that in Vietnam just like China did in Pak ? There is always the case of deniability ! This way Vietnam has nukes to scare the s**t out of chinkis and we have a new reliable design...!

If this question too newbish let me know. I will take to newbie thread.

Avinash Rav ji,

by no means is the question "newbish". I have been advocating the same since the last three years. See my post above, if interested.

I suggested such a course, so that it does not impede India's growth and strategic maneuverability. Somehow we are too invested in our good-boy image. So in order to get out of the shackles we have put on ourselves, we need a bad-boy buddy. Vietnam is the ideal country, to which we can 'outsource' the nuclear testing, especially some megaton range TNW testing.

It is important that China starts to shiver a bit.

We need a relationship with Vietnam which is closer than US-UK relationship.

BTW, welcome to BRF.