Telangana Monitor

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 26 Aug 2011 10:11

No doubt Jagan has amassed crores of rupees using govt power. But the fact is that for every crore they earned, they gave one crore to the rest of the cabinet and two crores as a bounty to the congress high command. So long as he was on congress side, it was fine to plunder the state. Congress has no credibility. Their hope is to put him in jail for 2-3 years, so that he cannot reach out to the people. Perhaps he deserves it, but what about all the accomplices.

The rumor is that has Jagan prepared for it and vijayamma is going to take the mantle. People close to the family say that she hates Sonia more than jagan does, as she believes in conspiracy in her husband's death. Can you imagine the sympathy she is going to garner? This is going to be very ugly. Congress is digging deeper and deeper and it cannot extricate itself from the mess. The only option they have is to grant separate T , cut a deal with KCR and salvage something out of T. This is going to happen before 2014.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 26 Aug 2011 10:30

In fact YSR is good at book keeping too. Probably he had all details of payments to High command and his colleagues, and probably kept a record of all his colleagues wealth records too. Jagan has understood that taking head-on congress now is foolish. Probably he will go to jail to get sympathy (people know that every body is dirty and can question why only Jagan is sent to jail) and will selectively reveal/leaks information about money distribution details and hard assets of opponents making Congress difficulty to cope with steadfast of information. Indeed the permutations and combinations are really interesting.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Aug 2011 18:13

If Jagan is arrested then it is a sweep for his party. INC probably wants that to happen.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 26 Aug 2011 20:30

I am not sure of that. May be EJ gang with Sonia wants that. But if Jagan comes back into congress other than NCP or TMC then it will be end of many congress leaders political hopes

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 Sep 2011 09:36

An aussie view of Andhra Politics:

Reddy and able

...
The Kiran Kumar Reddy government has had a series of difficulties, allowing the Jagan juggernaut to gather significant momentum. From looking like a marginal player – if player at all – a few months ago, it is now entirely possible that Jagan could control the state, given the defections from Congress.

That means the UPA finds itself in yet another bind of its own making. Having essayed an open attack on Jagan and so invoking the wrath of YSR supporters who might not necessarily have supported the son, the UPA might well have to somehow do a deal with Jagan if it wants to retain any hopes beyond the 2014 elections. Its recent deal with film star Chiranjeevi’s party designed to strengthen Kiran Kumar Reddy and offside Jagan has not worked. Now its choices might be limited, and certainly embarrassing.

How many Indians can comment on NSW politics! Close to zero.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 05 Sep 2011 20:57

While I hate the congress, I hate Jagan/YSR more!

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 05 Sep 2011 21:02

devesh wrote:either way, all that really matters is that EJ penetration will increase in the coming years. people know that Jagan is a corrupt factionist. but as long as he keeps doling our the subsidies and freebies, people will be fine. a majority of the govt employees will vote for Jagan. YSR has created a fanatically loyal block of voters among Non Gazetted Officers. as long as Jagan promises to continue with the double digit % increases/annum in benefits, all of them will vote. in '09 my close relatives who were govt employees held a gathering for all family members to advice them to vote for YSR. they ordered their kids (my cousins) to do the same.

I asked my aunt if she knew about YSR's background and his active support for EJ's including on the Tirumala Hill itself: she said "manam em chestam"? I said "vote veyyakandi". she said "vere vishayalu kuda untayi kada; anni alochinchi vote veyyalani nirnayinchukunnam".
("what can we do"? I said "Don't vote for him". she said "there are other issues too; after considering, we decided to vote for him".

sometimes, I think Bharat deserves to go the way of indigenous religion of Germanics. into blissful oblivion and consequent domination of foreign imperialism on homeland. we deserve it.

I have seen this kind of reasoning as well and that too from a Temple Priest! We deserve what we get for keeping our heads buried in the sand.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Sep 2011 23:40

the arrest of Janardhan Reddy is warning for Jagan. the whole thing has 2 goals: 1. bad PR for BJP, 2. Jagan's prospective financial allies are being taken out.

I wonder what side EJ's will take in this? is Jagan exploring this angle? what's going on in his mind? I see rich opportunities to associate the EJ's with political imperialism, if Jagan wakes up to the true nature of EJ's. I suspect the EJ's will split into 2 factions.

in the medium term, the local Converts will form a core group of "regional EJ's" to support Jagan. and of course, those who are more involved in the global networking will side with Maino faction.

IMVHO, we are seeing the start of the very first splitting process of EJ's. the beauty of Bharat is such that these foreign forces will be forced to splinter b/c of the nature of land.

down the lane, at some point, a light bulb can be facilitated which lightens up Jagan's mind. that would yield rich results and deal a severe blow to the imperialists.....

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Sep 2011 23:43

would Raj Foundation be a front for YSR group?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 05 Sep 2011 23:48

ramana,

are you talking about Raj Charitable Foundation? google tells me it's a "Christian Volunteering Organization". so it's definitely an EJ conversion outfit. if not directly connected to YSJ, they will most certainly be sympathetic.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 06 Sep 2011 01:48

KLNMurthy wrote:
ramana wrote:So BJP is realising it has no bone in the fight.
Good realization. Dividing Andhra is not good for Deccan.
BJP is deluding itself thinking that supporting T will make it a player in Telugu land.

In 2009 general elections, BJP without any electoral alliance polled more than 10% in 6 constituencies and more than 6% in 10 constituencies in Telengana. That is the BJP committed vote. In 2014, TRS will be looking for partners as it is unlikely to have a electorial alliance with TDP. PRAP votes will be divided mostly between INC and TRS. With the vote split between three main parties, INC, TDP and TRS, BJP committed vote could play a crucial role in as many 10 constituencies for its electoral partner's fortunes. TRS/BJP alliance is sure to win Secunderabad and Hyderabad would be in play for the first time.

Even if TRS wins 4 and BJP wins 2 of the 14 constituencies, its a big gain for NDA. They cannot win a single seat in rest of Andhra Pradesh anyways. Whether Telengana state is realized by 2014 or not, due to BJP's sympathetic stand on the issue, it is a likely an ally for TRS in the next elections.

Thats the only hope of BJP in AP at this time.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 06 Sep 2011 06:57

What is the view on Kishen Reddy's performance in the state so far?

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 06 Sep 2011 08:39

Kishen Reddy will return again in 2014. I know the Amberpet area well, and I would think that after INC's scandal prone politics, the people will be in no mood to switch to Congress anytime soon. Kishen (BJP) will win easily...

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 06 Sep 2011 09:22

Normally the arrest of mining don Mr Gali Janardhan Reddy should call for a celebration for ending the rein of the most notorious accomplice of late YSR. However the truth is more complicated. It is not hard to imagine what the end game is. All the doors are shut for Mr Y S. Jagan. Every one around him was hunted down. He is next.

It is two like two gangs of goons fighting against each other after developing some differences and the stronger and more powerful group captures the weaker gang and ends their chapter. Do we celebrate the ending of one gang or do we need to be more afraid of the emergence of the unrivaled, stronger and powerful gang. Now a days, this is the plight of people of AP -a hard choice between the devil and deep blue sea.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 06 Sep 2011 11:57

arunsrinivasan wrote:What is the view on Kishen Reddy's performance in the state so far?

That's good to know but I was talking about his work on building the party in the state.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Sep 2011 21:29

devesh wrote:Kishen Reddy will return again in 2014. I know the Amberpet area well, and I would think that after INC's scandal prone politics, the people will be in no mood to switch to Congress anytime soon. Kishen (BJP) will win easily...

I wonder if BJP can win so easyly in the city after its T state stand. Amberpet has lot of non telangana people and they may not be interested to vote to BJP. Supporting the T state on small state argument is one thing and ganging up with KCR and Kodanda Ram is another thing. Remeber in the first round of resignations Kishan Reddy did not resign out of fear of getting lost in the city area. BJP utterly failed to explain its role in the so called JAC to the public in AP. To see BJP leaders and that traitor Gaddar sitting in the same meeting and talking in almost same tones is the most disgusting thing. Even now BJP is failing time and again to put its stamp on teh T agitation. As for as winning in 2014 is concerned it may get some more MLA seats in the state assemble wherein it now has 2 out of 294. But i dont hink it will win any MP seats with or without support of the TRS. TRS if allies with BJP will lose their core naxal support and muslim vote. Let us wait and see till 2014.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Sep 2011 22:10

BJP may not win the city this time. A lot has changed the dynamics of Hyd city politics. Kishen Reddy has to find another safe seat somewhre in the outskirts (that too with the help of TRS) and it may be very difficult to win Amberpet. Forget the T sentiment and the past two years, even in Greater Hyderabad election of 150 seats, BJP has won just four seats. It came after INC, MIM and TDP. The shameful part is BJP came close to what PRP got in Hyd.

BJP and AP discussion is a boring discussion anyway. However, per my sources they are trying to get on a Jaswant Singh model. JS promised GJM in Ghorkaland that he will pursue a seperate statehood for them and he won from Darjeeling LS. He and his party very well know that there is no chance in heaven or hell that Gorkhaland will form with Mamta, pranab and entire Left in LS and WB assembly.

What is being planned is that to sell lemon to TRS that BJP will give the Telangana statehood as soon as it comes to power and at the first possibility. In return they will get some bread crumbs in the form of an alliance and about three to four LS seats. They may win on T sentiment. After stealing the LS seats it is back to realpolitik. If they really form the next government, it will be back to coalition dharma and there is no real chance of BJP's coalition partners allowing T formation.

The real best chance of T formation is only NOW and it has to come from UPA and otherwise it is over.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Sep 2011 22:50

Dasari wrote:Normally the arrest of mining don Mr Gali Janardhan Reddy should call for a celebration for ending the rein of the most notorious accomplice of late YSR. However the truth is more complicated. It is not hard to imagine what the end game is. All the doors are shut for Mr Y S. Jagan. Every one around him was hunted down. He is next.

It is two like two gangs of goons fighting against each other after developing some differences and the stronger and more powerful group captures the weaker gang and ends their chapter. Do we celebrate the ending of one gang or do we need to be more afraid of the emergence of the unrivaled, stronger and powerful gang. Now a days, this is the plight of people of AP -a hard choice between the devil and deep blue sea.

I am already in my long vacation mood and would like to indulge

.

I wrote about the C-System (fiction / CT to some) in the early days of 2G scam. I still think this entire T flareup after YSR's death is still the creation of the folks belonging to C-system. These nationalistic folks in the C-system (may be affliated to RSS

) see a lot of hope in destroying India's internal enemies (traitors) using Telangana. It is unfortunate that AP has become colleteral damage but the last few weeks of events that led to Reddy brothers' arrest reiterated my earlier point that C-System exists and it's work is still in progress.

(1) It was a God send opportunity when YSR died in an accident and YSJ claimed for CM ship. Note that 140 INC MLAs supported YSJ.
(2) Someone told 2G that T declaration is a good thing to finish off both Jagan and TDP once for all. These G's being real foreigners does not know fully well what will happen agreed and enthusiastically went ahead and declared.
(3) Yuppy - That ended congress hold over AP. Several of their internal surveys are putting them not even in contention. Worst part is its own core such as SCs, Christians, Muslims are clearly going towards Jagan.
(4) There is no support (reality is opposed to) from both internal stalwarts of INC and also the UPA partners towards T creation.
(5) SKC also recommended throwing some breadcrumbs to T and rolling it back
(6) Most importantly Mohan Bhagawat opposed Telangana initially but after being forced by RSS and BJP cadre, his secretarty Ram Mahadev retracted it back.
(7) A decision was made to rollback T and hence the consensus talk of Gulam Nabi
(8) Now after losing the AP how to get back the state for INC. Operation destroy Jagan and YSR legacy. A series of steps have taken place. (a) Move the core INC forward caste vote from Reddys to Kapus. (b) Decimate YSR legacy with an iron hand.
(9) Decimating YSR legacy and Jagan means a lot of crap will fall on INC as INC == YSR for more than a decade of AP politics.

Here is where C-system came back with a vengence

(1) Pranab Da talks to BJP before the current LS session to slowdown on T because INC want to roll back T movement using the CBI against Jagan.
(2) BJP did slowdown on T. Belive it or not

(3) Sushma is reluctant but she makes a casual statement that any more suicides she is off the T stuff. She is kind of loner and felt embrassed to be with TRS folks though she is nurturing Jaswant type LS seats stealing ops.
(4) Now the 2G has approved a maximum hit on Jagan. Another huge mistake IMO
(5) The C-system saw an opportunity to destroy the EJish YSR legacy and also the BJP's brokers (Reddy bros, Sushma and probably Anant Kumar too). They may want to clear the way for .... (NaMo?)

(6) Hence they used the AP Jagan's route to arrest the Reddy bros. It has real ripple effects. (a) Helps KA BJP to get rid of the menace (though there may be some coleteral damage). (b) Wipe out the Reddy clan votes from INC which will be a historic event (c) Jagan loses AP. (d) There is a huge chance of TDP's revival and it may be TDP's win over Jagan and AP that the C-folks want. (e) Fundamentally from a BJP/RSS perspective, it is a huge loss of face for its brokers such as Sushma and Anant Kumar.
(7) Note that TRS, T-INC are all quite. The splash of mud when Jagan gets arrested will be all over them. The money trials of YSR in the investigations could kill T-movement. Another important bird to fall. Connect this one with BJP's slowdown in T rhetoric

Now connect the events - CBI's lower ring slueths going after Jagan, Reddys and Amar Singh along with Sudhendra Kulkarni. Next in line could be Rajnath Singh too (may be I am dreaming). Where is Diggy raja as it is RSS all over

They are just trying their best to clear the path for the rise of Narendra Modi.

The options before congress are (1) Stop harassing Jagan and make him CM. (2) Stop T (3) Arrest Modi on corruption and other cases. The chances of these things happening are not rules out too.

Jagan said he is not opposed to UPA. TDP can drumup their campaign of Jagan and INC are same.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 06 Sep 2011 23:19

^^^
If BJP doesn't get Karnataka, it may have to wait for another term and in such case it will be reduced even further. In Karnataka, they rubbed corruption to BJP in Karnataka and took out its financier. They will prop up D'Gowda party as they themselves may not benefit in direct contest.

Coming to AP, triple threat to TDP from TRS, YSRC, and Congress is actually beneficial to TDP. So Congress may go with last minute compromise with TRS (they got enough dirt on TRS leaders anyway) and YSRC. In such case BJP is damaged goods anyway.

BJP strategy in North may be working but in the South it is damaging non-congress seats to go higher. As per Jagan, main strategist is not C-system or BJP but local only and for that Congress will not be damaged to the extent you're thinking.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 06 Sep 2011 23:32

ShyamSP wrote:^^^
If BJP doesn't get Karnataka, it may have to wait for another term and in such case it will be reduced even further. In Karnataka, they rubbed corruption to BJP in Karnataka and took out its financier. They will prop up D'Gowda party as they themselves may not benefit in direct contest.

Coming to AP, triple threat to TDP from TRS, YSRC, and Congress is actually beneficial to TDP. So Congress may go with last minute compromise with TRS (they got enough dirt on TRS leaders anyway) and YSRC. In such case BJP is damaged goods anyway.

BJP strategy in North may be working but in the South it is damaging non-congress seats to go higher. As per Jagan, main strategist is not C-system or BJP but local only and for that Congress will not be damaged to the extent you're thinking.

Karnataka's game has changed significantly. Irrespective of all the stuff, it will be a BJP's clean sweep there. All the survey are predicting 26 seats before and post Yeddi. Hence Reddys can be thrown out.

Read here:
http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column ... da_1583882

Regarding AP, BJP is gambling on TRS for breadcrumbs. The breadcrumbs will not allow TRS+INC coalition. Even if it does not get them it is not a major problem if it ensures congress and also Jagan loses. I see this happening based on the last three weeks of events. It is TDP's advantage and NaMo did not ever talk in favor of T with full tone like that of Sushma. The T lobby in BJP will take a huge pause with Reddy brothers' exit and the real politik of coalition builders under NaMo types will emerge. (Remember, TDP, Left supported BJP on Gujarat lokayukta fiasco in LS yesterday). By the way I met Kishen Reddy when he visited our city.

T is realy quite as they were told that they will have to face same impact like Jagan and Reddys.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 07 Sep 2011 04:57

Mupalla garu can you share the salient points of your conversation with Kishen Reddy.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 07 Sep 2011 06:06

Muppalla wrote:

Read here:
http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column ... da_1583882

Regarding AP, BJP is gambling on TRS for breadcrumbs. The breadcrumbs will not allow TRS+INC coalition. Even if it does not get them it is not a major problem if it ensures congress and also Jagan loses. I see this happening based on the last three weeks of events. It is TDP's advantage and NaMo did not ever talk in favor of T with full tone like that of Sushma. The T lobby in BJP will take a huge pause with Reddy brothers' exit and the real politik of coalition builders under NaMo types will emerge. (Remember, TDP, Left supported BJP on Gujarat lokayukta fiasco in LS yesterday). By the way I met Kishen Reddy when he visited our city.

T is realy quite as they were told that they will have to face same impact like Jagan and Reddys.

I cannot reveal my source but I was told long ago that INC is working on breaking the back of Jagan and KCR. Use ED to tame Jagan and bring him back into the INC fold as a minor minister (keep your friends close and ememies closer). By 2014 elections, INC will reach an agreement with KCR and merge TRS with INC and T-State will be formed. Once INC wins the elections in Telangana, KCR will be sidelined. They have enough dirt on him.

OT, the other post read like politicsparty "reporting".

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Sep 2011 06:50

Forming T state before 2014 will create similar demands cooming to play in the election making the entire 2014 uncertain. INC will never want uncertanity in 2014 elections. Their Amul Babu need to become PM in 2014 or wait for long time like Advani. Further they ha ve to write off 225 seats in remaining AP ( now they home 21 of them excluding Jagan) So I dont see T being given before 2014 or even after that. Killing the movement or containing the movement before 2014 and go for entire AP seats may be their game plan as off now. We all agree that containing and killing the movement is the aim of INC. If that is the case then why give T state if there is no movement and no major seat gain and even possible wipping out in rest of AP with 21 seat loss. There may be some improvement from 11 (out of 17) in T but our of 21( of total of 25) none will be won. so we are looking a possible 16 to 21 seats loss from the present total of congress and no state INC governament in the remaing state with new lifeline to Jagan and CBN. Further we are all forgetting anti incumbency effect. People are fed up and very very agngry with INC and there is going to be kick in the a*S very hard by the people all over AP.

With regard to caste mobalisation in AP, At least up 1991 such mobalisation by and large could not be done during th eelections and I do not see it happening now.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Sep 2011 07:05

ashashi wrote:I cannot reveal my source but I was told long ago that INC is working on breaking the back of Jagan and KCR. Use ED to tame Jagan and bring him back into the INC fold as a minor minister (keep your friends close and ememies closer). By 2014 elections, INC will reach an agreement with KCR and merge TRS with INC and T-State will be formed. Once INC wins the elections in Telangana, KCR will be sidelined. They have enough dirt on him.

OT, the other post read like politicsparty "reporting".

Rajgopal Tweets the same everytime T stuff flares up. Nothing new in 2014 T formation. It is forming since 2004 at every election time for INC. Hope by 2014 atleast APites can sleep with peace.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Sep 2011 07:31

suryag wrote:Mupalla garu can you share the salient points of your conversation with Kishen Reddy.

He is a real gentleman and you will feel why it is practically impossibe for BJP in AP or even in T with such a soft attitude. The whole thing is not too much exciting but there is a clear discomfort to align exclusively with T movement for him probably because he is technically AP BJP chief. Several TDFs (Telangana Dev forums) have formed. TDF is divided on castelines and there are three of them in US even before T formed. Because of sensitivity in T Vs AP situation, he preferred to talk more about China, 2G corruption and more on the national issues than on regional stuff. All he said about the state issue was keeping it boiling forever without resolution.

But when we discussed informally, he expressed concern that it is becoming really difficult to even create coalitions. He even expressed that it may be an uphill task for the BJP in AP to get back to even reasonable level. He outlines some of the good stuff that they are doing which the media never covers. Media is almost discussed for about thirty minutes. There are some plans to get a supportive media. I do not want to reveal their plans here

.

There is a lot of AP stuff he explained in the informal chat which I do not want to write on public fora. It is not like any secrets or things that we do not know. I just don't want to quote him here. He was really sad at several divisions in AP organization in USA. It was a kind of shock to see TDF in three divisions and everyone trying to get him to address their division.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 07 Sep 2011 15:07

INC will never want uncertanity in 2014 elections.

Exactly, Thats the reason INC is taking its time.
If T is given now, INC would not get the credit.
With Jagan neutralized and KCR in congress fold, Congress would get full credit for any decision on T.

As far as seemandhara is concerned, they think INC will be in a very good position. Chiru is YSR's game plan to divide the kapu vote. Kapus are about 30% of the AP population. Thinking is, with Chiru campaigning hard, taking the Kapu vote away from TDP, INC would be in good position.

All this from Dec' 2010 discussions.

vnadendla · Post by **vnadendla** » 07 Sep 2011 15:16

ashashi wrote:
INC will never want uncertanity in 2014 elections.
Exactly, Thats the reason INC is taking its time.
If T is given now, INC would not get the credit.
With Jagan neutralized and KCR in congress fold, Congress would get full credit for any decision on T.

As far as seemandhara is concerned, they think INC will be in a very good position. Chiru is YSR's game plan to divide the kapu vote. Kapus are about 30% of the AP population. Thinking is, with Chiru campaigning hard, taking the Kapu vote away from TDP, INC would be in good position.

All this from Dec' 2010 discussions.

We keep getting the same argument for a year now - "its possible to give T and retain AP through caste divisions". AP will loose the wealth of a generation - upwards of 200 B$ worth and 50 lakh people are uprooted. Cong is finished for ever in AP

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Sep 2011 16:48

One thing we are forgetting is that caste votes do not automatically get transferred in a place where education levels are quite high. I am not sure if there is 30% votes of Kapus therein AP. Even if they are, no one will follow Chiru like goats. Further Chiru is not an undisputed caste leader of Kapu people fo AP. No one is. There is no guarantee that the same caste leaders getting popped up by TDP and Jagan criminal gang in 2014. Let us not forget Chiru lost his own MLA seat in his native place in the last election and was very fortunate to win in Thirupathi. Chiru is totally discredited and if division takes place he will be looked as the main villain cum Joker for allowing congress into power in 2009 and allowing the division. Now every one know he has been fooled into join congress and he was promised Minister birth in Delhi and the same was not given. Tradition Congress leaders who want to become CM etc will try their level best to keep Chiru low. That is why no minister position was given to him and he now looked like fool who was taken for a ride by Congress. What about the G Srinivas a kapu leader who was AP Congress President till recently. Bosta Sathyanarayana is also a Kapu who wants to become a CM now. Dasari Narayana Rao (a film director) who is also a Kapu seems to be dissatisfied with the prominence given to Chiru and trying to join Jagan gang.

If INC agrees for the division then for Non Telangana voters it amounts to INC accepting the allegation of TRS that all non Telangana people are cheats and frauds and they are looters Telangana people etc. It also amounts INC threatening the physical security of the Non Telangana people living in Telangana areas particularly in Hyderabad. Remember most of the people have their very near relatives or even family members etc living in Hyderabad now. The fear that they will be treated like Hindus in Pakistan and will be driven out of their homes like Kashmiri Pundits is there very strongly in Non Telangana people. If fact I also suspect that there is going to be serious security threat to Non Telangana people in any Telangana state. This threat may diminish or increase depending the future course of TRS politics. Further if KCR who abused all non Telangana people like anything every day for about a decade, then it amounts INC is party to the abuses hurled at them. It will further create the situation wherein the congress leaders there looking hard into their winning chances jump behind Jagan or even join TDP.

Already there is a terrible sense betrayal in AP that INC after getting 33 MP seats congress destroyed AP for its political games and added to that there is huge anti incumbency factor already piling up. As things stand no congress leader will be in a position to win and congress can say bye bye to UPA – III and Amul Baba should wait for some more time.

Gurus Congress is not ready to conduct local body elections now out of fear that they will lose miserably. If they are so confidant about Chiru getting 30% kapu votes then they could have tried their luck there.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Sep 2011 16:49

ashashi wrote:
INC will never want uncertanity in 2014 elections.
Exactly, Thats the reason INC is taking its time.
If T is given now, INC would not get the credit.
With Jagan neutralized and KCR in congress fold, Congress would get full credit for any decision on T.

As far as seemandhara is concerned, they think INC will be in a very good position. Chiru is YSR's game plan to divide the kapu vote. Kapus are about 30% of the AP population. Thinking is, with Chiru campaigning hard, taking the Kapu vote away from TDP, INC would be in good position.

All this from Dec' 2010 discussions.

Irrespective of T formation this is huge illusion. 30% Kapus is a joke perpetrated by some spinners and all of them voting to INC is another joke. INC can only gain in seemandhra region if a lot of votes than they got in 2009 desert TDP. Jagan sitting in jail also could split the congress party's votes. Congress really really have to arrest CBN to achieve great heights.

Another illusion is that there is some timing for T decision. It is a real zero sum game and it is simply not acceptable to one region however we may want to argue or spin. For any political party it is a choice of which side they want to be. There is no chance of being on both sides. Those guys who cannot take a side are spinning in their dhotis.

There are only two options for INC: (1) Take a bite and side with your favorite side (2) Otherwise coerce the parties using the "skeletons in their cupboards" and rolback. They are implementing the (2)

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 07 Sep 2011 20:21

narayana ra garu,

Already there is a terrible sense betrayal in AP that INC after getting 33 MP seats congress destroyed AP for its political games and added to that there is huge anti incumbency factor already piling up.

Are you sure about the above statement? I'm yet to see any indication on the ground of such a feeling. The INC core votebase is intact. And enough FUD sown against the rest will divvy up the votebanks to give INC yet another majority, seems like to me.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Sep 2011 22:11

^^^
Hari garu, you are right and that is the reason they keep different variations in their approach. However, inspite of that bravado there will be room to drench them to nowhere. Bihar, TN are the points of reference. Off cource EVMs are too be monitored.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 07 Sep 2011 22:35

mango men and women need to realize that all these splinter groups like Chiru/Jagan/etc will ultimately join hands with INC. they are stage managed puppets who talk their tune for 15 minutes of fame, and then on issues that matter, will eventually side with INC and destroy any opposition to it. I suspect the Chiru drama has partially opened the Janta's eyes to this tactic. a repeat with Jagan or any other prominent forces will really hammer this fact. the opposition to INC clearly needs to find one bastion and then stick with it. if they fall for drama based on emotional fault-lines, INC wins...

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Sep 2011 05:24

Hari Seldon wrote:narayana ra garu,
Already there is a terrible sense betrayal in AP that INC after getting 33 MP seats congress destroyed AP for its political games and added to that there is huge anti incumbency factor already piling up.
Are you sure about the above statement? I'm yet to see any indication on the ground of such a feeling. The INC core votebase is intact. And enough FUD sown against the rest will divvy up the votebanks to give INC yet another majority, seems like to me.

If there is no fear in congress then why postphone the local elections? The core vote we are speak will be destroyed if they make any serious mistakes. What happend to this core votes when they got some 25 seats out of 294? That is what happened in UP & Bihar and also to some extent in AP when TDP is formed. If you think that people will blidnly vote for congress after 10 years of miss rule both in AP and in the nation you are mistaken. I have been in AP for a few days and every one of person I spoke are quite angry with Congress. Core voters may want to vote for congress but if they feel that congress need to be punished they will punish. I think they will punish it in 2014.

The drama of Chiru forming a new party and dividing anti congress vote and later joining congress is now known to people. Many thing Jagan also will play the same drama. TDP is already going to town with the same allegation. So Jagan will have very hard time to get anti congress voters to vote for him. If he is a player in the next elections (and not in jail) then will may eat into traditional votes of congress. The % of votes polled in the last elections between TDP and Congress are almost same and with no leader and horrible rule added with T agitation mistakes I dont see congress getting much of the votes this time.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 08 Sep 2011 16:31

Muppalla wrote: Irrespective of T formation this is huge illusion. 30% Kapus is a joke perpetrated by some spinners and all of them voting to INC is another joke.

I quoted from memory. Remembered it as a very high percentage.

The Kapu subcastes Balija, Telaga, Munnuru Kapu, Turpu Kapu and Ontari constitute about 22% of the population of Andhra Pradesh, making them the single largest community in the state.

22% is still very high for a single community. Unlike Kamma, Reddy, muslim and harijan communities, Kapus did not have a strong affiliation towards a political party. A significant portion of Kapus were voting for TDP. In 2009 elections, TDP vote share fell by 9% and congress vote share fell by 2% (not taking the effect of TRS alliance into consideration for both parties in both elections), most of it going to PRAP.

If PRAP was not contesting in 2009, TDP would have won the elections for sure.

Kapus voting for Congress prior to PRAP will have no problem voting for congress again. INC fate depends upon, what would the Kapus who were voting for TDP but shifted to PRAP in the last election do going forward? Even if 30% of them stick with Chiru and vote for Congress, its enough enough to push congress over the hill in seemandhra.

Thats the masterful stroke of YSR.

IMO, YSR was a political genius on the same level as Indira Gandhi.

Earlier, YSR propped up TCR to get out of TDP and form a telangana party.

Not sure where "all kapus vote for INC" came from. Not from me.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 08 Sep 2011 16:53

Narayana Rao wrote:
If there is no fear in congress then why postphone the local elections? The core vote we are speak will be destroyed if they make any serious mistakes. What happend to this core votes when they got some 25 seats out of 294? That is what happened in UP & Bihar and also to some extent in AP when TDP is formed. If you think that people will blidnly vote for congress after 10 years of miss rule both in AP and in the nation you are mistaken. I have been in AP for a few days and every one of person I spoke are quite angry with Congress. Core voters may want to vote for congress but if they feel that congress need to be punished they will punish. I think they will punish it in 2014.
.

We all have similar experiences taking to friends about politics. Elections are never won by "citi"zens or netizens. They are won and lost by raithus (labor).

Nehru earlier realized the power of the raithu and adopted socialism based welfare society at the core of the congress ideology. Indira Gandhi took it to the next level. Various welfare programs were adopted by INC to get the poor vote. Some of them even illegal like air dropping food satchels with Indira Gandhi's picture on them when UP/Bihar had floods.

The welfare ideology brought success to INC all over India except in the states where there were local welfare parties. Communists in Bengal and Kerala, various DMKs in Tamil Nadu successfully rooted out INC from their states. More recently, BSP in UP is successful.

Only time INC lost big in AP was when NTR launched TDP. Backbone of his campaign was the Rs 2/kg rice promise which out welfared the congress in that elections. That was the election when INC got only 25 seats, if I remember correctly.

TDP lost 2004 elections because of the raithu revolt against TDP. Remember the farmer suicides at that time. TDP did not act fast enough to help the poor farmers and paid the price.

Irrespective of what our friends say, welfare of the poor is an extremely important factor what decides elections in India, until the India's progress reaches them.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 08 Sep 2011 17:01

Kishen Reddy has to find another safe seat somewhre in the outskirts (that too with the help of TRS) and it may be very difficult to win Amberpet.

Kishen Reddy won with over 30K votes in 2004 from Himayatnagar and in 2009 from Amberpat.

Thats "thumping majority" in assembly elections. I wont write him off so easily.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 08 Sep 2011 18:06

When I was in the BJP actively there was Narendhra and Datthatheya etc were the leader at Hyderabad. I do not personally know Kishan Reddy. Many of the votes BJP got for Kishan Reddy are from Non Telangana voters. Now after his regular Tv dramas calling them looters cheats, theifs are we sure any of these people vote for him ? Muppala Sir posted that Kishan Reddy is a nice fellow and a JM. But many times I saw him on Tv hurling abuses on Non Telangana people. If this is the conduct of the nice leader then what about not nice leaders. He and Dattathreya sits regularly with that traitor Gaddar and other naxal leaders. I wonder if BJP can be called a nationalist party any more.

When Nizamabad BJP MLA put down his papers along with TRS people few months back, Kishan Reddy has not done so as he is afraid that he will not get reelected from a Hydearabad seat. Now in the second round he did along with all the other parties. BJP which was a force in some areas of Hyderabad now may have to relocate its State President.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 08 Sep 2011 19:42

Narayana Rao wrote:When I was in the BJP actively there was Narendhra and Datthatheya etc were the leader at Hyderabad. I do not personally know Kishan Reddy.

Same here. I met him for the first time when he was on US tour. He is a soft spoken and well mannered person. When he was in DC area, there were only about 150-200 people. Most of the people are from telangana.

After I met him, checked his videos on utube. Did not find any with derogatory remarks. Anyone know where I can find such videos.

ashashi · Post by **ashashi** » 09 Sep 2011 05:55

BJP support T seems to be unequivocal. Sushma Swaraj made it clear in T meet in Karimnagar.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 15 Sep 2011 15:33

So much for the "Messiah" http://www.indianexpress.com/news/graft ... e/846643/0

How unfortunate is it that we need to depend on the diplomatic cables to learn about corruption while our own media remains blind to it.