Af-Pak -> Pak-Af Watch

[Ananya]

i would assume Karzai would be taken out of the country following this , also A'Saleh is also hidden secure. Looks like TSPA and ISI have indeed moles in the highest circles of power in AFG.

[Rangudu]

One observer says that this is reminiscent of 1996 (when ISI took out Najibullah) and 2001 (when Abdul Haq was killed). The Talib bombers were apparently welcomed because Rabbani was told by a "trusted person" that they were carrying a special peace message from Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura.

The one silver lining is that this will discredit all the snakes and the weaklings who were pushing for cut and run and "negotiated settlement" BS.

[JE Menon]

These killings, though essentially local and apparently of minor players in the global scheme, will have worldwide implications.

A very rough and crude message is being sent by the Pakistani state. Everybody who has half a nut knows this. It is only a question of what the next moves are, and where it will lead. It's an unpredictable clusterfu(k really...

The Pakistani state thinks it is on the verge of defeating the Americans in Afghanistan. They are playing what they assess to be the end-game, and afterwards they will expose in dribs and drabs more and more of their dangerous strategic agenda.

We cannot, for instance, entirely ignore the almost casual bravado with which Erdogan ups the ante in the Middle East and East Mediterranean, while noting that the Turkish state has been getting very cosy with Pakistan over the past few years; even those who prefer conservative analyses of the situation, will have to acknowledge that this has to be seen in the backdrop of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.

It is America's move.

[CRamS]

R-man,

After this brazen taking out of Rabbani by TSP through its proxies, you are right that the cut & run crowd in DC will be silenced a tad, but it all depends IMO on how much the Pentagon/CIA boys will actually release to the media mouthpieces on what they really know about TSP. If they "leak" the truth about TSP, the tide could turn. Otherwise, if the useless US media continues its nauseatingingly, defeaning repititious BS sob stories on who ate what, and who did what, and who wore what, and who was where when 9/11 happend, or obsess on the so called corruption of Karzai, I think the cut & run crowd will rule the roost, and its whisky time at GHQ in Pindi. I am waiting to see any hints that Pentagon/CIA slimeballs move away from this notion that somehow, TSP's regional interests must be taken into account (meaning Indfia out of Afganisthan and Kashmir) as a way of appeasing it. Bloody chutiyas like Perkovich must be shamed.

[shyamd]

US consulate in Quetta still ‘under consideration’


North Waziristan: US mounts pressure on Pakistan to take action

By Huma Imtiaz / Kamran Yousaf
Published: September 18, 2011

Admiral Mullen had expressed his "deep concerns about the increasing and increasingly brazen activities of the Haqqani network," to Kayani in Seville.
ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON:

In a meeting with Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in Seville, Spain, on Friday, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) Admiral Mike Mullen reportedly told his Pakistani counterpart that he would like to see the Pakistani military act against the safe havens of the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, Special Assistant for Public Affairs for the CJCS Captain John Kirby said that Admiral Mullen had expressed his “deep concerns about the increasing and increasingly brazen activities of the Haqqani network.”

(Read: Bone of contention)

In a private one-on-one meeting that lasted for over two hours, Admiral Mullen and General Kayani agreed that the US-Pakistan relationship was “vital to the region and that both sides had taken positive steps to improve that relationship over the past few months.” Kirby said the two discussed the state of military-to-military cooperation and pledged to continue to find ways to make it better.

It was the first meeting between the pair since the May 2 military raid in which US Navy Seals, without first notifying Islamabad, killed Osama bin Laden in a compound in Abbottabad.

Pakistan and US relations continued its downward spiral after US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta said that the US could take unilateral action against the Haqqani network based in Pakistani territory similar to that taken against bin Laden.

Since then, the clamour for Pakistani action against the Haqqani network has increased in US diplomatic circles with the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Congressman Mike Rogers and US ambassador to Pakistan Cameron Munter both stressing that Pakistan needs to take action against the Haqqani Network.

In a twist, Sirajuddin Haqqani in a message said that there were no Haqqani sanctuaries in Pakistan, adding that its members had moved over to the Afghan side.

(Read: ‘No sanctuaries in Pakistan’ – Haqqani network shifts base to Afghanistan)

The Pakistan government on Sunday appeared to shy away from a public rebuttal of American claims.

Though security officials denied the charge, none of them were willing to speak on the record, which apparently suggests Pakistan has been caught off guard by the strong US position taken against the Haqqani network.

“It is unfair and unjust to dump your failures on us,” reacted a senior military official to the US allegations.

However, the official acknowledged that Pakistan, like the US, did maintain contacts with the Haqqani network only for the purpose of peace and the reconciliation process in Afghanistan.

“Even the US is in contact with the Haqqanis and Pakistan’s contact with the group does not in any way mean we are encouraging them to attack on the US forces in Afghanistan,” the official said.

The comments reflect Pakistan’s belief that the Haqqani network has to play a key role in the future political dispensation of Afghanistan.

Another official insisted Pakistan has been doing “what it could to stop the infiltration of militants from across the border.”

“All communication towers in the tribal areas have been shut down since 2009, so if there is any contact between militants from the two sides, it is only possible through mobile towers on the Afghan side,” he explained.

When approached, foreign ministry spokesperson Tehmina Janjua declined to comment on the fresh US allegations and said the issues would be taken up at a meeting between Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in New York.

The meeting was scheduled for shortly after midnight Pakistan time on Sunday.

Officials say Pakistan is likely to issue a comprehensive response to US accusations once Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Foreign Minister Khar return home.

Despite strained relations, Pakistan is seen as key to US military operations in Afghanistan, where the US is to trying to beat down a resilient Taliban insurgency.

[RamaY]

I believe Rabbani was in India a few weeks back!

The Afghans should start hunting down Paki suars!

For some reason we don't see these assassination attacks from NA side. We are yet to see revenge to ASM's assassination.

[RamaY]

Standard ops - they are just ripping apart all of HK's "gang" and his trusted men. First it was the governors of each province - there was some reapproachment there. Then, all the hardcore clique or trusted individuals - Northern Police chief, Rabbani, AWKarzai etc. They are just picking them off one by one. Now the conversation has started as to who is next - this is exactly what the taliban want. They want everyone to be scared. ISI officials must be patting themselves on their backs on the number of high profile attacks they have executed so far successfully.

I wonder what will cause the US to go after TSP hard.... The US just had the bloodiest month in a while. These high profile assassinations. Now imagine whats going on in these afghan govt heads, can the US guarantee security for these guys taking on Afghan govt jobs? Unlikely.... US either has to step up its game and hit TSPA and Haqqani's, the ISI agents where it hurts hard or its game over for everyone. Now or never.

USA doesn't care as long as ISI doesn't touch their own people. Even then a few US body bags in the name of GWOT is acceptable.

USA must be getting a very very big profit from Pakistan that is not visible to general public. It could either be flow of drug money to some massa policy makers or some geopolitical agreements. My CT mind goes as far as a massa approved china sponsored paki instigated non-state actor JDAM happening on India in next 2-3 years to shut down indian growth.

These personal assassinations are hall-mark of any terrorist organization. Only way one can stem this is by paying in kind. Is ANA and bad-taliban game for it?

[RamaY]

We cannot, for instance, entirely ignore the almost casual bravado with which Erdogan ups the ante in the Middle East and East Mediterranean, while noting that the Turkish state has been getting very cosy with Pakistan over the past few years; even those who prefer conservative analyses of the situation, will have to acknowledge that this has to be seen in the backdrop of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.

It is America's move.

AWMTA

[Rudradev]

These killings, though essentially local and apparently of minor players in the global scheme, will have worldwide implications.

A very rough and crude message is being sent by the Pakistani state. Everybody who has half a nut knows this. It is only a question of what the next moves are, and where it will lead. It's an unpredictable clusterfu(k really...

The Pakistani state thinks it is on the verge of defeating the Americans in Afghanistan. They are playing what they assess to be the end-game, and afterwards they will expose in dribs and drabs more and more of their dangerous strategic agenda.

We cannot, for instance, entirely ignore the almost casual bravado with which Erdogan ups the ante in the Middle East and East Mediterranean, while noting that the Turkish state has been getting very cosy with Pakistan over the past few years; even those who prefer conservative analyses of the situation, will have to acknowledge that this has to be seen in the backdrop of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities.

It is America's move.

A very perceptive post, JEM.

I have often wondered at the cosiness between the Turks and the TSPA, and all that it implies. To be fair, we haven't seen the Paki policy of nuclear-suicide-bomber blackmail being mirrored by Turkey until recently... but as you say, that is what seems to be happening today. Perhaps it is a wonder that it hadn't happened before today.

After all, contrary to all the bluster, Pakistan ISN'T the first Muslim country in the world to have nuclear weapons.

See this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing

Nuclear sharing is a concept in NATO's policy of nuclear deterrence, which involves member countries without nuclear weapons of their own in the planning for the use of nuclear weapons by NATO, and in particular provides for the armed forces of these countries to be involved in delivering these weapons in the event of their use.

As part of nuclear sharing, the participating countries carry out consultations and take common decisions on nuclear weapons policy, maintain technical equipment required for the use of nuclear weapons (including warplanes capable of delivering them), and store nuclear weapons on their territory.

Of the three nuclear powers in NATO (France, the United Kingdom and the United States), only the United States has provided weapons for nuclear sharing. As of November 2009, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey are still hosting U.S. nuclear weapons as part of NATO's nuclear sharing policy.[1][2] Canada hosted weapons until 1984,[3] and Greece until 2001.[1][4] The United Kingdom also received U.S. tactical nuclear weapons such as nuclear artillery and Lance missiles until 1992, despite the UK being a nuclear weapons state in its own right; these were mainly deployed in Germany.

Both the Non-Aligned Movement and critics inside NATO believe that NATO's nuclear sharing violates Articles I and II of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibit the transfer and acceptance, respectively, of direct or indirect control over nuclear weapons.

...

The US insists that its forces control the weapons, and that no transfer of the nuclear bombs or control over them is intended "unless and until a decision were made to go to war, at which the NPT treaty would no longer be controlling", so there is no breach of the NPT.[6] However, the pilots and other staff of the "non-nuclear" NATO countries practice handling and delivering the US nuclear bombs, and non-US warplanes have been adapted to deliver US nuclear bombs which involved the transfer of some technical nuclear weapons information. Even if the US argument is considered legally correct, some argue such peacetime operations appear to contravene both the objective and the spirit of the NPT. Essentially, all preparations for waging nuclear war have already been made by supposedly non-nuclear weapon states.

At the time the NPT was being negotiated, the NATO nuclear sharing agreements were secret. These agreements were disclosed to some of the states, including the Soviet Union, negotiating the treaty along with the NATO arguments for not treating them as proliferation. Most of the states that signed the NPT in 1968 would not have known about these agreements and interpretations at that time.[7]

Results we may deduce, if the above is true:

1) Turkey has been in possession of nuclear weapons, as well as the equipment and know-how to maintain and deliver them, for a long time. As such its nuclear arsenal is likely to be in better shape for actual use than Pakistan's ever was.

2) On the other hand, since Nuclear Sharing was a policy evolved in secret, no one has any way of knowing the exact extent to which Turkey's nukes are under US control. Between absolute control (de-mated warheads and/or PAL locks to which the codes reside only in Washington) to nominal control (Erdogan simply has to phone the White House to inform them his birds are in the air) there is a vast range of possibilities.

3) Turkey has been the "dark horse" of America's Middle East policy for a long time. I believe this is because Turkey is in fact, the world's undeclared nuclear weapons state.

At one point, it became common knowledge that Israel possessed a functioning nuclear arsenal (thanks to US proliferation.) Do we really imagine that the Arabs, even the relatively pro-US Arab regimes like Egypt, Jordan or KSA would have simply put up with this? Some quid pro quo must have been given by Washington to Riyadh, Amman and Cairo for their acquiescence to Israel's nuclearization.

4) What was that "quid pro quo"? Most likely compromise: some Muslim nation, which the US already implicitly trusted with nuclear weapons, would be discreetly presented before Amman-Cairo_Riyadh as a Washington-approved Islamic nuclear "balancer" against Israel. I am sure the minutiae of this deal were hammered out in great detail, behind closed doors. Very likely, as part of it, Amman-Cairo-Riyadh were assured that Istanbul would be given *greater* autonomy over its nukes than it enjoyed under NATO nuclear sharing, so that it could act as an independent balance/deterrent against Israel.

5) The US would then have covered up the whole deal, publicizing an impression of friendly Israel-Turkey relations, sweeping this instance of proliferation neatly under the carpet (as they managed to do with German-Dutch-Chinese proliferation to Pakistan for over two decades.) The Israelis would have agreed to this compromise (what choice would they have?) in the belief that nukes in the hands of a "secular", NATO-allied Turkish army were better than nukes in the hands of any other Middle Eastern Muslim nation. Besides, if KSA/Jordan/Egypt were not "given" a nuclear Turkey as an Islamic balancer to Israel, there was always the danger that they might throw their weight behind the nuclear weaponisation of then-Saddam's Iraq, or Libya, or even Iran. To Israel, a nuclear Turkey was the price they were prepared to pay to have nukes of their own.

6) Like the Pakistan calculus in the East, the Turkey calculus in the West relied on one assumption: that the US would be able to "manage" jihadi radicalization in "friendly" Islamic states to which nukes had been proliferated by Washington, or by other powers with Washington's tacit approval. During the time all this began to be negotiated... during the closing years of the Soviet-Afghan war, I surmise... that must have seemed a cakewalk to the CIA's modern-day T.E. Lawrences.

7) As we know, events from 1996 to the present day blew giant holes in that comfortable assumption. First in Af-Pak, of course. But today, it is likely that Erdogan has taken a leaf from the Paki book and is trying it on for size. Both nuclear-armed Islamic nations (Turkey to a far lesser extent so far, but to some extent nonetheless) are making a mockery of what used to be known, in 20th-century parlance, as "nuclear deterrence." They are in fact using their arsenals as "nuclear insurance" to underwrite their regional, even global adventurism.

End result: "Deterrence", as the concept we knew it in the 20th century, is DEAD. This would be true even if I am completely wrong about Turkey, SOLELY on the basis of Pakistan's behaviour. Nuclear INSURANCE for military and political adventurism, cannot survive side by side with nuclear DETERRENCE, which by definition, was aimed exclusively at curbing adventurism. Using the possession of nukes to back up one's attempts to ALTER the status quo, makes nonsense of any doctrine where possession of nukes was used to MAINTAIN the status quo. It cannot be any other way.

9) Therefore: yes, it is America's move, and further, America had better make it fast. America, as the possessor of the world's largest nuclear arsenal and its oldest nuclear arsenal, wrote the rulebook on which 20th-century "Deterrence" and brinkmanship were wholly and entirely predicated.

Today Deterrence as a paradigm is dead and completely irrelevant. All that remains is a hollow shell maintained by pure inertia; it is only a matter of time before somebody uses nukes and then the breakdown of Deterrence becomes public spectacle, but even as things are, Deterrence for all intents and purposes has already broken down in the international system. We have Pakistan, and possibly Turkey, to thank.

10) The wisest move for America, if it wants to retain its upper hand at all, is to seize the initiative and establish the NEW paradigm. Deterrence is dead and gone... an entire global system of belief in nuclear "deterrence" that was established by demonstrations at Hiroshima and Nagasaki and followed up with decades of brinkmanship and propaganda. Whatever the new paradigm is... if America wants to dominate the world, America must be the one to define it and establish it. For America to establish this new paradigm, more demonstrations are necessary. More examples need to be made.

11) America cannot keep fighting the Afghan war by conventional means for a variety of political and economic reasons. With the Chinook shoot-down, the Kabul attack and the Rabbani murder... Pakistan has signaled that no matter what inducements America offers, Islamabad's proxies are only going to up the ante and escalate in response. Erdogan is quite possibly sending the same sort of signals in West Asia and the Med.

Muslims with nukes are using those nukes as insurance to do the Quranic thing and swing their severely truncated pen1ses in the civilized world's face.

The only solution for the Americans is to show that it can, and will, engage in controlled escalation beyond the nuclear threshold (as currently understood in terms of lame-duck "Deterrence." ) "Deterrence" is dead. Political leaderships around the world know very well that "Deterrence" is a sham. The only question now is, who will call out the Emperor's New Clothes? Who will show that Deterrence is a sham by breaking it openly in full public view?

America cannot afford for China, or Pakistan, or Turkey or Iran to be the one who breaks the sham of Deterrence in full public view. America must break the sham ITSELF, because the power who publicly destroys the pretense that "Deterrence" exists, is the power best positioned to shape the paradigm of nuclear weapon use that evolves as a 21st-century successor to "Deterrence."

America must deliver a TNW strike against the Haqqani network's assets in NW Pakistan. No more NAVY Seal snatch-n-grabs: that only provokes more blackmail, more recalcitrance, more revenge attacks. America must show once and for all that it means business... that it is not constrained in achieving its interests by the existence of nuclear Saif-ul-Islams, because it is WILLING TO USE the Saif-ul-Unkil. Pakistanis will then remember that Saif-ul-Unkil utterly dwarfs even the most powerful "insurance" that Allah can bring to bear.

The TSPA must see, feel and experience the joy of a thermonuclear airburst over North Waziristan. This will do two things. First, it will take the initiative of "nuclear insurance" away from the TSPA and leave them with exactly two options in response: use a nuclear weapon in retaliation (directly or via "non state actors"), or grovel in complete and abject surrender.

The second thing a thermonuclear airburst over North Waziristan will do is to convince the Pakis, like nothing else, that if they even make a move that arouses the slightest suspicion of using nuclear weapons in retaliation...America will have no hesitation in providing more airbursts and groundbursts much closer to their manicured front lawns. There will be no more bribing, no more bleeding, no more dying by a thousand cuts, no more patrols to be ambushed, no more tankers to be burned. There will be maximum retaliation, guaranteed, against everything the Pakis hold dearest of all.

This is the only way America can win in Af-Pak, as far as I can see. It is also the only way America can regain oversight of the world's nuclear security architecture, get rid of the Deterrence tree that has been eaten hollow by the Chini-Paki-Turki termites of "nuclear Insurance"... and establish a new paradigm of which they, once more, are in primary control.

[Rangudu]

Admiral Mullen testifying to the Senate today says:

The Haqqani Network ... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency

No $hit Sherlock!

[Rangudu]

Mullen continues his testimony and says:

In choosing to use terror group as an arm of its policy, Pakistanis jeopardize their prospects at being legitimate regional power...

and

The Haqqani Network acts as a veritable arm of Paks' ISI -- they conducted truck bomb, attack on embassy, Mumbai, etc.

and

They may think this is a good bet, but they've already lost that bet. By exporting violence, they're sowing seeds of own instability

[JE Menon]

Exactly ... sometimes I wonder what the crap goes through the minds of these American honchos. I mean have they been so thoroughly brainwashed by the RAPE and by themselves basically? Bloody thing is obvious as daylight and still these guys go around hedging and fudging...

Their bureaucracy is so huge and unweildy that half the time they don't even realise they are being guboed!!!

But this ship is turning, and once it turns, I expect fun times for the Pakisatan...

Meanwhile, let's just hope the Paks keep doing what they are good at ....

[ramana]

Cognitive dissonance and duplitious experts.

The first is due to their hubris that any ally of theirs cannot be having their own agenda. They think all alliees march to their drumbeat. TSP has been an allie since early 1950s and it goes against their line of thinking that TSP could and is doing things to harm them. Every leader starts out making great speeches of TSP is a frontline ally and finds out TSP is an All Lying ally.

To add to the cognitive dissonance are the duplitious experts like uneven Cohen wqhose job is to be the independent auditor who advises the govt policy makers. These guys turnout to be inteh TSP pocket for wahtever reasons.

All said and done US hamartia is TSP.
- 911
-Nuke proliferation leading to involvement in Axis of Evil
-Af-Pak embroglio
-Repeated terrorist attacks all over the world
-Repeated escalation of tensions with India leading to potential destabilisation of American order

They have brought the Great Satan down by being close to them.

[Rangudu]

Mullen mian tells Senate.

Pakistan is supporting terrorists actively and passively and these actions potentially violate international norms and may warrant sanctions

A Senator asks Mullen

Have you told Kayani that we will maintain a smaller but significant presence in Afghanistan after 2014 and that a smaller presence means that we won't need to rely on supplies coming from Pak?

John McCain tells Mullen and Panetta

It's ok if you can't tell us openly what the strike options inside TSP are, but if they are not evident, Congress will be forced to do the only thing it can - cut off all funds to TSP despite regrets about Pressler

[Rangudu]

Tubelight still brightening bit by bit. Mullen says (paraphrasing):

ISI is not independent. It is an important part, but it just implements Pak government policy of using terrorism and proxy groups

[sum]

But this ship is turning, and once it turns, I expect fun times for the Pakisatan...

Amen to that

[Agnimitra]

I have often wondered at the cosiness between the Turks and the TSPA, and all that it implies. To be fair, we haven't seen the Paki policy of nuclear-suicide-bomber blackmail being mirrored by Turkey until recently... but as you say, that is what seems to be happening today.

Even if Turkey doesn't mirror the nuke-suicide-bomber blackmail Paki-style, the Turko-Pakistani relationship will bloom.

1. Recently member Atri ji made a post on the significance of the political-business-criminal nexus that undergirds a civilizational skeleton, which got me thinking. The emerging impressions of Islamist Caliphatism across MENA show clearly that TSP is making itself the locus of the narco-terrorist ciminal axis of this Caliphate skeleton, along with adjuvants like Somalia. Malaysia, Indonesia, etc have their own roles to angle for. But Iran and Turkey are jockeying for the political leadership role. So, Turkey's coziness with TSP doesn't have to end up in mirror tactics, but the facilitation of an axis that weaves itself around America's knees.

2. Pakistan has also been facilitating Sino-Turkish relations, including the joint air exercises in Sept 2010, the first such case between China and a NATO member, which raised US concerns about sensitive US and NATO technologies. Both Turkey and TSP have leverage over PRC due to the Uighur issue, and so China will reciprocate for mutual strategic benefits and protections. PRC provides both Turkey and Pak with a countervailing force against the US to create space for their common Caliphatist strategic goals in CA. [See China, Turkey to establish strategic cooperative relationship]

3. The rise of Islamism in Turkey will be concomitant with increasing coziness and biratherhood between Turkey and TSP elites. Just as Gulenism rides on neo-Ottoman feelings, it is also redolent with fond memories of active support by the pre-cursors of Pakistan's elites during the Khilafat Movement on the subcontinent. Talk to even lower ranked Gulenists and they know and are grateful for it. Moreover, Gulenism is based on the ideologue Said Nursi, who claimed to be deeply influenced by Imam Rabbani (Shaikh Ahmad Sirhindi) whom the purest of the pure in Pakiland adore. Further, large sections of the RAPE elites claim Barlas Turkic genealogy. Thus, there are genetic, historical as well as ideological factors for increasing Turko-Pakistani coziness as Turkey positions itself as a champion of Islamist causes.

4. Just like Iran was asked to grant overflight permission during Sino-Turkish air execrises, it is an indication that the China-Pak-Turkey axis will put pressure on Iran to fall into line with their strategic goals. Due to its current anti-US stance, Iran can find itself agreeing in the short term, but in the medium to long term many in Iran will not be willing to allow Turkey to steal the Islamist thunder from them as political leaders of pan-Islamism. It remains to be seen how this plays out.

5. The one thorn in Turkey's flesh is Kurdistan. It is something Iran can use, and the US/Israel can use. It is a potential meeting point.

[ramana]

carl, There are speculations that Balochis are related to Kurds.

[shyamd]

India seeks to revive hospital on Afghan border

Gearing up for the uncertain security scenario after the US downsizes presence in Afghanistan by 2014, India has formally approached Tajikistan to allow re-establishment of the famous Indian field hospital at Farkhor on the Tajik-Afghan border.

India had first set up this hospital in 2000-01 to service the Northern Alliance troops fighting the Taliban. The field hospital had even moved in and out of Afghan territory during the war. In fact, Ahmed Shah Masood was rushed to this hospital after being shot by his assassins, who had masqueraded as a television crew.

While Masood could not be saved, the 25-bed field hospital had built a strong reputation and was seen as a symbol of the mutually beneficial relationship between India and the NA forces. However, after the Taliban were ousted, the hospital had been folded up. Nearly a decade later, it is back on priority list in the light of the fast-changing situation in the area.

It’s learnt that an Indian team held detailed discussions on this issue and a range of other proposals with their Tajik counterparts at Dushanbe few weeks ago. Also, both sides sorted out issues emerging from the nature of Indian presence at the Ayni airbase, 10 km from Dushanbe.

This airbase is India’s only foreign military asset which the Air Force has completely refurbished. Of late, Pakistan has been lodging protests with Tajikistan on the presence of Indian troops. Tajik officials have sought to downplay Indian rights to use the airbase in a bid to allay concerns of not just Pakistan, but even China.

Sources, however, confirmed that the Indo-Tajik understanding has not undergone any change. The Indian Air Force contingent stationed at Ayni also participated in the September 9 military parade in Dushanbe. This was done at the invitation of the Tajikistan government.

With the US set to withdraw from the Af-Pak region, New Delhi is doing its best to revive old contacts and increase influence as well as presence among Central Asian republics.

Very good. Basically are telling everyoneonly the Russian 201st are allowed on the base andthat the US might get the base. They are telling everyone diplomatically that there is no other foreign presence.

A source told me: Its a long term project and will not be abandoned.
I also recall there plansto build a Chabahar - Kabul - Kunduz - to tajikistan highway.
i think all these projects were on the back burner after Iran said no. Now Iran is hinting to us to restart these projects. Lets see

[devesh]

about the emerging Criminal/Mullah/Political networks, I think the time is fast approaching when India will have to wage a massive covert war as a preemptive strike against all and sundry Mullah-mafia networks to "convince" the Islamic countries around us that they will have to make accommodations for us in this network on our terms.

all too often, India has experience a scenario where encroachment was allowed too deep, which later brought down any revivalist attempts. a preemptive strike is the only way to enforce our interests this time around. I am talking about a massive round of liquidating the Islamist mafia elements all the way from ME to SEAsia. specifically targeting those who have wagged their tails at us and who have "actively" funded attacks on India.

[abhishek_sharma]

The post-Rabbani Afghanistan

[Agnimitra]

If not the Taliban ...

The Taliban's muted response to the assassination of former Afghan president and head of the Afghan High Peace Council Burhanuddin Rabbani, its refutation of early claims of responsibility, and various accusations being tossed about add to what is developing into a genuine whodunit.
- Bashir Ahmad Gwakh

... then who killed Rabbani?

The Taliban’s statement denying involvement in the killing of Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the Afghan High Council for Peace, is coming on the third day of the incident. Evidently, the Quetta shura thoroughly checked out with various Taliban factions before coming out with this statement. Indeed, the Taliban, uncharacteristically enough, are not on message this time ... - M K Bhadrakumar

[krisna]

In search of Afghan peace, India reaches out to Iran

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has accepted an invitation to travel to Iran, opening the way for the first visit to the country by an Indian head of government in a decade.

Even though the Prime Minister is unlikely to announce early dates for a visit, which, diplomatic sources told The Hindu, Iran had been pressing for since 2009, the announcement is significant in the context of the growing power of the Islamist insurgency in Afghanistan — the cause of deep concern in both New Delhi and Shi'a-majority Iran.

The United States, though deeply hostile to Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons capabilities and its geostrategic ambitions, has been calling for regional states to participate in a dialogue aimed at building a stable future for Afghanistan. Iran has substantial influence with Afghan groups in the country's west and, along with India and Russia, was part of a group of nations which backed the anti-Taliban resistance before 2001.

“Let's put it this way,” a U.S. government source told The Hindu, “whatever our problems with Iran might be, we welcome whatever India can do to persuade Iran to play a constructive role.”

war weary uncle asking India to bring Iran around to stabilise af-pak.

[Agnimitra]

MKB continues to hammer away at the Rabbani murder mystery, asking quo bono? In the process of his detective work, he absolves the Pakis and puts Unkil in the dock.
Deconstructing the death of Rabbani

Rabbani evoked respect as an Islamic scholar, while his jihadi pedigree was impeccable. He was admired for the ease with which he criss-crossed Afghanistan's political and ethnic divides although he remained the tallest Tajik leader. Rabbani could be ruthless, but then, he was also incapable of guile and animosities. He amused onlookers with his vanities and his weakness for pomp and flattery.

But he was feared for his political skills and could also be fickle-minded to the point of being unreliable. Above all, he was widely respected as an Afghan nationalist.

[...]

Any attempt to deconstruct Rabbani's assassination should begin with a detached look at the bonds between him and Pakistan's military leadership. No doubt, it was a complex relationship, enriched by Rabbani's networking with the "Islamic" parties in Pakistan and the various jihadi elements in the region and beyond as well as with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

Conceivably, Kiani saw Rabbani (an ethnic Tajik) as a potential interlocutor who could help Pakistan reach out to the non-Pashtuns, especially the Panjshiris. Rabbani had complicated equations with Massoud and the Panjshiris, and there were acute moments when the two sides barely tolerated each other.

[...]

Again, his excellent ties with Iran, his sagacity to keep lines open to the Taliban, his virulent "anti-Americanism" - these were also of interest to Pakistan, whose military leadership showed pragmatism by accepting him as the point person in intra-Afghan dialogue. Pakistan assessed that if any non-Pashtun leader had a chance of bringing the Northern Alliance groups on board the reconciliation process and a broad-based settlement, it was Rabbani.

Suffice to say, the repercussions of Rabbani's assassination for Pakistan could be serious. One, the hawkish Panjshiris and other intransigent Northern Alliance groups will use Rabbani's death to block any accommodation with the Taliban, which indeed would mean a disastrous slide toward civil war.

Two, against the backdrop of the US-Pakistan standoff, an axis might develop at some point between these intransigent Northern Alliance elements and the United States on the basis of a congruence of interests. (The Northern Alliance suggested such an alliance in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.)

Equally, a polarization would further isolate President Hamid Karzai. The US agenda to corner Karzai receives a fillip in these changed circumstances. The deck gets cleared now for the US to mop up residual issues relating to the strategic agreement that it is keen to conclude before a peace conference begins in Berlin in December.

The US prefers to directly handle the reconciliation process with the Taliban and set its terms, without involving Karzai (or Pakistan). Surely, the biggest gain for the US from Rabbani's departure is that the idea of the "Afghan-owned" peace process that Karzai spearheaded (which Washington never really favored) has floundered for all practical purposes.

In sum, deconstructing the death of Rabbani produces strange patterns. Those who "gained" include the intransigent Northern Alliance groups and the "alien mercenaries of organized terrorism", as Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad pithily described. What is certain is that Karzai "lost" heavily. He needs to figure out a way forward. Pakistan is pressing him to pick up the threads and resume the joint Afghan-Pakistani peace process.

Some fingers have pointed at Pakistan for being responsible for Rabbani's murder - principally, these are irate Northern Alliance elements ("warlords") who are jostling for political space and are openly courting foreign sponsorship. The US, which is piling the pressure on Pakistan, refrained from linking the ISI with Rabbani's murder - the Taliban have denied involvement.

[...]

Rabbani said the Afghan people opposed foreign occupation, but he justified the US military presence and sidestepped the reality that the military presence was part of the problem. He hinted there were forces that resented his dealings with Pakistan, but he complained that Pakistan wasn't yet cooperating with the peace process - although it had mastery over the insurgents. Rabbani knew that a shroud of strategic ambiguity was inexorably surrounding him and the peace process.

The intriguing part is where he stood vis-a-vis the US, finally. His "anti-Americanism" was apparently mellowing, but his last port of call was Tehran. He juggled far too many balls in the air, which in today's Afghanistan meant inviting trouble - even for an Ustad.

[abhishek_sharma]

Our Man in Kandahar

Is reconciliation finished in Afghanistan?

[sum]

MKB continues to hammer away at the Rabbani murder mystery, asking quo bono? In the process of his detective work, he absolves the Pakis and puts Unkil in the dock.

The guy is truly a piece of work indeed!!!

[ramana]

X-Post....
NW-27 Sept 2011

China-US: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on Monday reaffirmed China's position on the United States' arms sales to Taiwan, urging the U.S. immediately to correct its error by revoking its arms sales decision.

Comment: The Chinese Minister referred to the US decision to upgrade Taiwan's F-16 fighter force rather than sell new F-165s that might maintain the balance of capabilities across the Taiwan Strait. So the US has chosen half measures, apparently in the expectation that both sides will be somewhat mollified.

US policies towards China and Taiwan are incomprehensible and contradictory.

Think why? Its Janus faced or blow hot-blow cold}

Pakistan-US: Pakistan will not take military action against the Haqqani network militant group, according to a 25 September meeting of the Pakistan Army corps commanders chaired by Pakistan Army Chief of Army Staff General Kayani at the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, The Express Tribune reported 26 September. After the corps commanders discussed the possible implications of a unilateral US operation on Pakistani territory, an unnamed military official said Islamabad told Washington that Pakistan cannot commit to anything beyond its current operations.

Comment: Pakistani civilian leaders led the official denunciations of US official accusations of supporting the Haqqanis. The Pakistan Army leaders were content to hide behind the official denunciations. They neither supported their own civilian leaders nor denounced the US accusations.

{So TSPA CC are playing it safe and not showing their hand. The net result of this standoff is TSPA jihadi credentials are restored after the Abortabad raid and Mehran attack. Something to mull ( ) over.}

US Readers understand that the Pakistani civilian leaders have limited access to the operations of the Pakistan Army. Thus, President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani are figureheads who have no control of the Pakistan Army. Their comments do not signify. General Kayani or other senior generals have NOT denounced Admiral Mullen's accusations. Mullen wasted his time and was outsmarted in trying to make friends with Kayani.

Pakistan-Saudi Arabia: For the record. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate chief, Lieutenant General Shuja Pasha, met Saudi intelligence officials at ISI headquarters in Islamabad on 26 September. The Saudi officials went to Pakistan on the special directive of Saudi King Abdallah to ease tensions between Pakistan and the United States, The Nation reported. After the meeting, Pasha flew to Saudi Arabia to meet with Saudi intelligence and armed forces officials.

{So Pasha was summoned to KSA to offer new terms. Most likely Pahsa will send a soosai jihad to KSA to show them their place now that TSP has PRC backing them. BTW KSA has just weakened itself in funddo eyes with rights to women. As I predicted KSA will have to change moderate its Wahabi dogma to face the modern world. Again this bolsters the TSP fundoo characteristics! So 2-0 for TSP }

Comment: The Saudis see Afghanistan moving in a more or less favorable direction so long as the Iranians make no gains. They want Pakistan to focus on larger, strategic concerns, including Palestinian statehood, the stability of the Syrian government, Turkish claims to leadership in the Middle East, containment of Iranian influence. Pakistan remains the nuclear and conventional arsenal of the Muslim world, regardless of what happens in Afghanistan, in the Saudi view.

{What is more important is what does TSP see itself in the ummah? The Islamist world always submitted to the sword since Muhammad's days. Nooks are the swords now even if borrowed.}

Pakistan-China: Chinese Vice Premier Meng Jianzhu will visit Islamabad on 26 September to discuss regional security in a meeting with Pakistani President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and other officials, The Express Tribune reported. A Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman said Meng's visit is important but unrelated to other regional developments. Meng is also scheduled to meet with General Kayani and Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) Lieutenant General Shuja Pasha with talks to focus on Chinese separatists arrested by Pakistan and extradited to Beijing.

Comment: The confluence of Chinese and Saudi meetings on the 26th is almost symbolic of the polarity in Pakistani foreign policy. The US is a bit player every decade or so, but Saudi Arabia and China are Pakistan's major benefactors. Saudi Arabia would pull Pakistan into the orbit of the Muslim states of the Middle East, manipulating Pakistan's inability to pay for the Saudi oil it has consumed for decades.

China has armed Pakistan as its proxy in a future sub-continent war against India, a decade or so in the future. The Pakistan Army has been prepared as China's second front force against India in that future war. Only the Pakistani generals seem to fail to understand their limited role in China's Asian strategy.

{The writer is pleading with TSPA not to go over to the darkside to use sci-fi language and waste years of mutally profitable association.}

Meanwhile, China wants stability. The Gilani government has not provided it. China has the same gripe against the Pakistan Army as has the US. Pakistani intelligence and the Pakistan Army support terrorists, in China's case, Uighur Muslim terrorists in Xinjiang, just as they support the anti-government Pashtuns in Afghanistan. The Chinese are less delicate than the Americans in pressing their demands that the Pakistan Army stop its double dealing.

Afghanistan: A US official confirmed that an attack occurred on a building used by the US in Kabul late 25 September. Afghan authorities confirmed reports of gunfire around a building used by the CIA, near the former Ariana Hotel that is in the vicinity of the Afghan presidential palace, but Kabul authorities could not confirm any casualties or injuries.

Comment: The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, without identifying the group that attacked. Not even the CIA can defend itself in Kabul. Nobody ever knows when Allah will call a true believer to kill someone in the name of Allah. It can occur at any time with no warning.

Here is the chnace for massa to make a play and send strong message at next cc meeting.}

Saudi Arabia: The King of Saudi Arabia has granted Saudi women the right to vote in town and city elections and the right to run for office.

Comment: What is interesting is that women's rights derive from the King, not from Allah or nature or universal human rights.

[shyamd]

Following up from above. The Paki Ministry of Foreign affairs take:

Pak-US tensions: Foreign ministry seeks international support to deter US

By Qaiser Butt
Published: September 27, 2011



As tempers run high between Pakistan and the US over the Haqqani network, Islamabad has launched an international effort to avert the possibility of foreign forces on its soil.

An official source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Pakistan has directed its envoys in western countries, including Nato allies, to muster support that could dissuade the US from taking action, whether military or economic, against Pakistan.

Additional Secretary of the Foreign Ministry Alamgir Babar is in regular contact with the US State Department in an attempt to alleviate tensions, the source told The Express Tribune on condition of anonymity.

Armed hostilities unlikely

Veteran diplomats, however, say armed hostilities are unlikely. “The recently initiated cold war against Pakistan is aimed at cowing down Islamabad, but this threatening posture will not translate into a physical confrontation,” former Pakistani Ambassador to Afghanistan Rustam Shah Mohmand told The Express Tribune. Similar views were expressed by former Pakistan foreign secretary Tanveer Ahmed Khan during a televised interview on Sunday.

On the other hand, both the former diplomats are of the view that Pakistan may face harsh US economic sanctions in case negotiations fail. Both countries are aware that neither can afford an all-out war, Mohmand said, adding that “the problems being faced by Americans in Afghanistan will not allow the US to go beyond a selected strike in Fata.”

Mohmand did not rule out a selected strike, or a short operation by US forces in North Waziristan similar to the Abbottabad raid. “Some adjustment will ultimately occur in the rigid stands and demands of both the countries,” he said.

Where China comes in

Referring to the Chinese role in the Pak-US conflict, the former diplomat said that Islamabad had so far failed to gain help and economic assistance from China.

“Trade between China and India has crossed over $66 billion while we have so far not been able to gain any meaningful support from our friend,” Mohmand said.

The views of former naval chief Admiral Fasihuddin were similar, who said that the war of words was a battle for economic and strategic dominance in the region.

Spill-over possibilities

Fasihuddin did not rule out an army action against Pakistan by the US and warned that “[possible] US strikes in North Waziristan may spill over into urban areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa”.

Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and military brass have taken a strong stance, stating clearly that a unilateral US strike would not be tolerated. It is yet to be seen whether Islamabad will follow through on this message.

Meanwhile, senior officials in the foreign ministry suggested that a physical confrontation, while not imminent, remained possible in the current circumstances.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 27th, 2011.

Recall similar attempts in after parliament attack to avert war.
US-Pak relations: Escalating tensions spur diplomatic frenzy

By Irfan Ghauri / Kamran Yousaf
Published: September 27, 2011

Interior Minister Rehman Malik greets Chinese Minister of Public Security Meng Jianzhu upon his arrival at Chaklala airbase in Rawalpindi. PHOTO: AFP
ISLAMABAD:

Amid simmering tensions between Pakistan and the United States, Islamabad on Monday saw a flurry of diplomatic activity, both overt and covert, directed at defusing the situation.

US Ambassador Cameron Munter, recently returned from Washington, held a meeting with Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir. Under more secrecy, senior Saudi intelligence officials met the ISI chief in an attempt to bridge the divide between Pakistan and the US. To add further speculation, a delegation led by Chinese vice Prime Minister Meng Jianzhu, who is also China’s top security official, landed in the capital and held talks with Pakistani civilian and military leaders.

(Read: Chinese vice prime minister arrives in Islamabad)

In a related development, Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani cancelled a trip to the UK, where he was due to meet Defence Secretary Liam Fox. Pakistan Army spokesman General Athar Abbas said the visit had been “postponed indefinitely” but would be re-scheduled. Abbas put the decision down to “the current situation at home” but refused to elaborate further. It is presumed that Kayani called off the visit apparently to continue in-house talks on mounting US pressure for Pakistan to abjure its alleged support for the Haqqani network.

Saudis as intermediaries?

Sources claim that Saudi Arabia is quietly working to mediate between Pakistan and the United States.

The meeting between Saudi intelligence officials and Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha took place at the Chaklala Airbase, sources said. Some media reports claim that the ISI chief, after a “crucial” meeting with the Saudi intelligence officials, dashed to Jeddah for further consultations.

When approached, however, a senior military official confirmed that a delegation of Saudi intelligence officials was on a visit to Islamabad, but insisted it had nothing to do with the ongoing row between Pakistan and the US.

“We have counter-terrorism cooperation with the US and the visit was part of that cooperation,” said the official, who also strongly denied reports that the ISI chief had rushed off to Saudi Arabia.

Munter and Bashir agree on ‘deeper engagement’

Both the US embassy and the foreign ministry attempted to downplay the hype over the issue of the Haqqani network after a meeting between US Ambassador Munter and Foreign Secretary Bashir.

“It was a regular meeting but also indicates the fact that Pakistan and the US have a broad-based relationship,” said Mark Stroh, US Embassy spokesperson.

“Both agreed on dialogue and deeper engagement at all levels,” said foreign ministry spokesperson Tehmina Janjua, adding that the meeting between the two was a follow-up on the three-and-half-hour meeting between US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar in New York on September 18.

(Read: A meeting in New York)

An American diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Express Tribune that the situation is “still tense and fluid.” He declined to elaborate.

Pakistan and China cooperation

China’s Public Security Minister Meng Jianzhu arrived in Islamabad on Monday and was scheduled to meet senior officials. Although agreements for economic and technical cooperation were signed, there may have also been discussions on Pakistan’s ties with the US.

“China is always there for us,” said Interior Minister Rehman Malik as he welcomed Meng. Presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar echoed Malik’s views, saying: “The Chinese leader reaffirmed China’s continuing support for Pakistan in its fight against militancy and the promotion of regional peace and stability,”

Babar said that during two rounds of talks, mutual cooperation, the regional situation, the fight against militancy and the recent devastation caused by heavy rains in Sindh were discussed.

“The President said that Pakistan greatly appreciates China’s support for Pakistan on all issues of major concern. He said that the Chinese role was very important to usher in a new era of peace and stability in the region,” he added.

Pakistan and China signed a number of agreements, including those on relief goods, emergency humanitarian assistance and the rehabilitation of some damaged parts of the National Highways network. One of the agreements signed involved approximately $250 million of Chinese assistance.

Later the President hosted dinner for the Chinese dignitary and his delegation that was also attended by some federal ministers and senior officials.

Meeting with CJCSC

Earlier Meng Jianzhu met General Khalid Shameem Wynne, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee. According to ISPR, the media wing of the Pakistan Army, both leaders discussed matters pertaining to mutual interests and the emerging geo-strategic situation of the region. Jianzhu appreciated the role played by the armed forces of Pakistan in the fight against terror. Wynne highlighted the converging interest of Pakistan and China, both in security and economic arenas.

Iranian delegation arrives tomorrow

Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar will pay an official two-day visit to Pakistan on September 28-29. “Bilateral meetings have been regularly held between us and the Pakistanis to discuss security and other forms of cooperation,” said Mehdi Mohammadi-Fard, deputy interior minister for parliamentary and international affairs, quoted by the Iranian Fars News Agency. The two countries will sign a security agreement on the sidelines of the visit.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 27th, 2011.

Is the last reason why the Saudi's came to haul Pasha in?

The funny thing is - think of this in KSA perspective. They rely on military support from Pak, their security arrangements hinge on it. Just the seed in their minds that Pak could sell them out is enough to break this arrangement and cause KSA to look for other friends. And who is the only power in the area in addition to the US to help them out in thier time of need?

PRC are telling the TSPians that they get $60bn from India and they dont get much from TSP.

-----------
KSA is probably saying - stop deal with Iran, cool it with US. They need TSP in ongoing unrest in Bah. Nukes probably discussed

[Agnimitra]

Iranian delegation arrives tomorrow

Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar will pay an official two-day visit to Pakistan on September 28-29. “Bilateral meetings have been regularly held between us and the Pakistanis to discuss security and other forms of cooperation,” said Mehdi Mohammadi-Fard, deputy interior minister for parliamentary and international affairs, quoted by the Iranian Fars News Agency. The two countries will sign a security agreement on the sidelines of the visit.

Is the last reason why the Saudi's came to haul Pasha in?

So Iran has been acting generous to TSP of late. And Saudi has hauled Pasha in for a face-to-face. And Manmohan has suddenly decided to accept Iran's long-standing invitation to visit Tehran, just after Ahmadinezhad makes his anti-US speech at the UN. Per this report yesterday:

“Let's put it this way,” a U.S. government source told The Hindu, “whatever our problems with Iran might be, we welcome whatever India can do to persuade Iran to play a constructive role.”

Perhaps India's re-engagement of Iran is meant to coincide with US turning the heat on TSP? What is Iran's position really w.r.t. TSP, especially in light of the current rhetorical drama b/w Unkil and his Munna?

Recently Gilani flies to his "hometown" Rasht and declares it Multan's sister city. Returns with $100m in "flood-relief" aid from Iran - much more than PRC offered them. Iran and TSP even declare intentions to start a "joint airline". All of these reminded me of a bona fide Rashti joke - 3 wives are talking about their husbands' crown jewels. American man's wife says, "Its like Apollo - firing on all cylinders and high up by the time I countdown from 3 to 1." Frenchman's wife says, "Its like the Concord - goes so fast it can break the sound barrier." Rashti wife says, "His is like an Iranian passenger aircraft - gets up in the air after a long delay, then lands early due to technical problems." Iran can get into bed with Rashti Gilani, but it will be disappointed in the end - just like all of Pak's former and current allies!

Current US-Saudi tight handling of Pak is probably meant to prevent an Iranian affair.

[abhischekcc]

about the emerging Criminal/Mullah/Political networks, I think the time is fast approaching when India will have to wage a massive covert war as a preemptive strike against all and sundry Mullah-mafia networks to "convince" the Islamic countries around us that they will have to make accommodations for us in this network on our terms.

all too often, India has experience a scenario where encroachment was allowed too deep, which later brought down any revivalist attempts. a preemptive strike is the only way to enforce our interests this time around. I am talking about a massive round of liquidating the Islamist mafia elements all the way from ME to SEAsia. specifically targeting those who have wagged their tails at us and who have "actively" funded attacks on India.

Dubai is the key. Dubai is the place where the overworld and underworld coexist and do business without being molested by the law. Dubai's only two conditions are that all the illegal activity take place outside Dubai or at least under cover within Dubai, and that the Sheikh gets his cut from every deal that goes on. It is the hinge on which crime in the part of the world (ME,CAR,SA,Africa,IOR, East Med) takes place.

Dubai has very liberal money laundering facilities, it has a world class entrepot, it has extensive ports from which dhows carrying smuggled goods traverse the Indian Ocean, it has a legal/police system designed to look the other way, etc

Removing Dubai's ability to protect and profit from crime will be the key to winning the war against terrorism as well as criminal networks.

[RamaY]

Pak-US tensions: Foreign ministry seeks international support to deter US

As tempers run high between Pakistan and the US over the Haqqani network, Islamabad has launched an international effort to avert the possibility of foreign forces on its soil.

An official source from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Pakistan has directed its envoys in western countries, including Nato allies, to muster support that could dissuade the US from taking action, whether military or economic, against Pakistan.

Probably Paki ambassadors are telling their host nations that any US attack on Pakistan might invite terror attacks from Paki-sympathetic sleeper cells.

If a nation is smart, they will get the message and expel all Pakis (1/786 paki is also a paki).

“Trade between China and India has crossed over $66 billion while we have so far not been able to gain any meaningful support from our friend,” Mohmand said

There is a dangerous precedence IMO. Earlier India financed Paki terror thru US and in future we will finance Paki terror infrastructure thru PRC. Assuming a 5-10% ROI on 50% of that trade, we are looking at $1.5-3B PRC aid to TSP.

[RamaY]

Recently Gilani flies to his "hometown" Rasht and declares it Multan's sister city. Returns with $100m in "flood-relief" aid from Iran - much more than PRC offered them. Iran and TSP even declare intentions to start a "joint airline".

We all know that Paki-leadership will eat 90% of that aid. So the question is why is Iran paying $90m at this point? What are they expecting to get in return. I smell some radioactive-rat. I hope Indian and Israeli satellites are monitoring Iran-Pak borders very closely.

Barring the nuke test, what Iran can do is to shower some radio-active waste on Israel using paki supplied missiles (babur?) and materials.

The joint air-line project could be similar to the C-130 project pakis did with NK during AQK days.

[shivajisisodia]

We all know that Paki-leadership will eat 90% of that aid. So the question is why is Iran paying $90m at this point? What are they expecting to get in return. I smell some radioactive-rat. I hope Indian and Israeli satellites are monitoring Iran-Pak borders very closely.

Iran's, Paki's, Chinese and Karzai's interests have converged in the neighborhood. They all want to get the US out. Karzai is an opportunist and realized a couple of years ago that US is a loser in the region and therefore "unhitched" his wagon from the US and hitched it to Iran. Paki and the Chinese have offered Iran influence in post US Afghan in exchange for pursuading Karzai to throw India under the bus, which being the opportunist that he is, Karzai quickly did. No wonder, you dont see much genuine criticism of Pak by Karzai in the past year or so and has in fact been secretly dealing with the Paki establishment lately.

Look at Iranian aid to Paki in that context. It is a payoff for harassing and killing Americans.

In view of all the above intrigues and shifting alliances, one thing has remained constant. The Indian establishment dont have a clue of what is going on, they dont track the shifting alliances, and certainly do nothing to increase their influence in Afghan in any way. Karzai uses the Indians to build his roads and run his hospitals and in exchange laughs at Indians at night in secret meetings with the Pakis and Iranians.

[VikramS]

Given what all is going on the Mid-East, TSP chutzpah is amazing.

On one hand they are the bum provider to the KSA. OTOH, they are also working with Iran. They have the US on their case but they are firing from the PLA's shoulder.

They essentially are playing games with all the major powers of the world. Typically smaller powers tend to get trampled when the bigger powers clash. The secret of their survival is to push things as far as possible before tucking the tail; the calibrated escalation knowing very well how much and what the other party will do.

Dealing with the TSP requires irrational and asymmetrical response. Don't do what they expect you to do, become irrational so that the war-gaming which the RAPE have done falls apart.

In other words, become a Paki in your though process.

As a wise man once said on BR, they put the chut in chutzpah.

[shivajisisodia]

Given what all is going on the Mid-East, TSP chutzpah is amazing.

On one hand they are the bum provider to the KSA. OTOH, they are also working with Iran. They have the US on their case but they are firing from the PLA's shoulder.

They essentially are playing games with all the major powers of the world. Typically smaller powers tend to get trampled when the bigger powers clash. The secret of their survival is to push things as far as possible before tucking the tail; the calibrated escalation knowing very well how much and what the other party will do.

Dealing with the TSP requires irrational and asymmetrical response. Don't do what they expect you to do, become irrational so that the war-gaming which the RAPE have done falls apart.

In other words, become a Paki in your though process.

As a wise man once said on BR, they put the chut in chutzpah.

We can call it Chutzpah, we can belittle these cave dwellers, but the fact remains that the Pakis play the game amazingly well. They seem like professionals to Indian amaterism. Why do we skirt around the issue and not admit that the Pakis have played their cards really well. Unless we come out of denial, we will never get a grasp of reality and until Indians get a grasp of reality and live in the real world, we cannot improve ourselves and get better.

Maybe, the Indian establishment knows how well the Pakis play the game and is just deliberately sleeping, to fool the general population of India. 'Cause, if it became well known, how well the Paki plays and badly the Indians play the game, the public opinion might force the Indian establishment, netas and babus to curtail their corruption and act in national interest. Or it just maybe, that the population is also aware and wants to deliberately ignore the issues, so they can also continue along their corrupt ways, without having to make any sacrifices, which will necessarily have to follow, if there has to be a positive change towards nationalism in the country.

[VikramS]

SSjee:
The TSP Elite is obsessed with playing the game. They are not answerable to anyone. They do not care for the unwashed Abduls. They have an army of Abduls willing to die for their 72, at their disposal.

The Indian Elite is interested in staying in power and making money. They are answerable to the people and most people live far enough away from the LOC to care about what is happening there or in Kashmir for that matter. They also do a cost-benefit analysis and conclude that the LIC is a better option since the TSP has nothing to lose and India has a lot.

TSP might be playing her cards well, but the game she is playing is one she can never win. She will always be jockeying for leverage and position with no identity of their own. Further the cost of the game now has reached a point where the RAPE is crying Uncle/Aunty and what not.

There is an article out there showing the picture of the LOC/IB fence as taken from space. It is so well lit up at night that it is easily visible. India's best bet is to keep the scum on the other side of the fence and keep them there.

[shivajisisodia]

SSjee:

TSP might be playing her cards well, but the game she is playing is one she can never win. She will always be jockeying for leverage and position with no identity of their own.

Never win against who ? If you try and understand the Paki mind, you will realize that Paki has for decades been trying to create for itself an "Arab cum Central Asian" identity. By Central Asian, I mean a combination of Turkic and Iranian. The Pakis are the forward force of the army of Islam which fanatically believes that all of India rightfully belongs to them and in the Islamic fold. Therefore, for them, it is India and not Kashmir which is the unfinished business of 1947, an unfinished business of the British leaving, not of partition. By creating a Central Asian cum Arab identity for themselves, the PAki is further integrating itself with the core Pan Islamic culture, which then provides the Paki true legitimacy and approval from the mainstream Islamic world to be the advance army of Allah and spread the word of Allah to the heathen and Kafir Hindus, by the gun and nuclear bombs, if necessary.

But in order to create this Arab + Central Asian identity, they first have to destroy all traces of Indic culture in their midst, which makes them hate themselves and the presence of this Indic aspects in Paki culture more importantly makes the Arabs and Turks to look down upon them or to treat them as 2nd class muslims.

The Paki has attained a certain degree of success in re-engineering its culture since independence, where the new generations in Paki are begining to feel quite alienated from the Indian culture, notwithstanding the popularity of Indian movies, which really means nothing, they are even popular in Central Asia, Iran, Turkey, Arabia and North AFrica. The Urdu language is being more Arabized, the clothing is being more Arabized, the food is already quite Central Asian (Panjabi food across religious lines, even before independence had major Uzbek and Afghan influences) and of course the thinking is becoming more and more radical. Their education systems has systematically and without check disseminated hatred for everything Hindu, which is really an integral part of every PAki today, which was not entirely the case with the Pakis of the partition generation, notwithstanding the violence during partition.

On the other hand look at India today. I dont think anyone today will call India a traditional Hindu society that it was even 30 or 40 years ago. Even the villages have lost their Hindu way of life and even though the number of temples in India have sky rocketed and thousands flock to these temples, outside the temples, in their day to day life, there are very few traces of traditional Hinduism left. A lot of it has to do with the "secularism" heavily promoted by the Indian government, a lot of it has to do with exposure to television and movies, which only peddles popular culture, which again cannot be traditional Hindu oriented, but the lowest common denomenator secular popular culture. It also has a lot to do with the fact that materialism and greed for money has permeated not only the middle class but also the grass roots, not only in urban but also rural areas and the inevitable result of this runaway materialism is corruption which has also permeated all strata of our society.

Therefore, if we really open our eyes and are honest with ourselves, we will realize that it is the Indians who have lost a lot more of our identity since independence than the PAkis. The Indians are fast losing their genuine "Hinduness" and the Paki are becoming more and more Islamic (unless someone believes the nonsense that Islam is not extreme Islamism and therefore PAkis are becoming less Islamic, by being more extreme). The common refrain that we use to console ourselves vis-a-vis the PAki that at least we know who we are and are secure in our identity, while PAki is not, is really a false proposition, totally baseless nonsense.

Only when we recognize this fact, will we perhaps, wake up and try to reverse this situation.

[Lalmohan]

ten myths about afghanistan

interesting analysis of the ground realities of afghanistan and the war

[pgbhat]

Karzai in India next week, focus on ISI's role

Karzai arrives here Oct 4. He is expected to hold talks with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and meet External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna. The two sides are set to discuss the fragile security situation in Afghanistan and the role of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in fomenting instability in that country.

[paramu]

The Paki has attained a certain degree of success in re-engineering its culture since independence, where the new generations in Paki are begining to feel quite alienated from the Indian culture, notwithstanding the popularity of Indian movies, which really means nothing, they are even popular in Central Asia, Iran, Turkey, Arabia and North AFrica. The Urdu language is being more Arabized, the clothing is being more Arabized, the food is already quite Central Asian (Panjabi food across religious lines, even before independence had major Uzbek and Afghan influences) and of course the thinking is becoming more and more radical. Their education systems has systematically and without check disseminated hatred for everything Hindu, which is really an integral part of every PAki today, which was not entirely the case with the Pakis of the partition generation, notwithstanding the violence during partition.

On the other hand look at India today. I dont think anyone today will call India a traditional Hindu society that it was even 30 or 40 years ago. Even the villages have lost their Hindu way of life and even though the number of temples in India have sky rocketed and thousands flock to these temples, outside the temples, in their day to day life, there are very few traces of traditional Hinduism left. A lot of it has to do with the "secularism" heavily promoted by the Indian government, a lot of it has to do with exposure to television and movies, which only peddles popular culture, which again cannot be traditional Hindu oriented, but the lowest common denomenator secular popular culture. It also has a lot to do with the fact that materialism and greed for money has permeated not only the middle class but also the grass roots, not only in urban but also rural areas and the inevitable result of this runaway materialism is corruption which has also permeated all strata of our society.

Therefore, if we really open our eyes and are honest with ourselves, we will realize that it is the Indians who have lost a lot more of our identity since independence than the PAkis. The Indians are fast losing their genuine "Hinduness" and the Paki are becoming more and more Islamic (unless someone believes the nonsense that Islam is not extreme Islamism and therefore PAkis are becoming less Islamic, by being more extreme). The common refrain that we use to console ourselves vis-a-vis the PAki that at least we know who we are and are secure in our identity, while PAki is not, is really a false proposition, totally baseless nonsense.

Only when we recognize this fact, will we perhaps, wake up and try to reverse this situation.

THis is a very good post and would not have put it in better way.

Unless Indians become aware of their own past and retrieve it - then it will be difficult for Indian nation to be strong.