China Military Watch - Jan 11, 2011

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 06 Oct 2011 03:59

Does this mean, in theory, if Taiwan asked India to set up a military base in Taiwan, Chinese would respond the same way?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Oct 2011 08:04

Austin wrote:Can any thing be done regarding the presense of 4000 troops in POK by India or can Pakistan claim they are within sovereign right to ask PLA for help and their presence in POK.

Both. Pakistan can claim anything and we can take out anyone if we wanted to do that. (Like Angelina Jolie and me)

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 06 Oct 2011 11:58

chanakyaa wrote:Does this mean, in theory, if Taiwan asked India to set up a military base in Taiwan, Chinese would respond the same way?

They'll probably be more vociferous about it, and there'll likely be severe economic consequences for Taiwan, but there won't be a shooting war.

member_19969 · Post by **member_19969** » 06 Oct 2011 21:17

India China in race for the bottom in the Indian Ocean

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Oct 2011 12:45

Cheating Chinese spy caught by Russia. "Monkey caught with hand in bottle"!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oc ... tor-spying

Russia arrests Chinese 'spy' in row over defence weaponsMan accused of seeking details of anti-aircraft missile system which experts say the Chinese are trying to copy

Xcpts:

Russia arrests Chinese 'spy' in row over defence weapons
Man accused of seeking details of anti-aircraft missile system which experts say the Chinese are trying to copy

Miriam Elder in Moscow and Tania Branigan in Beijing guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 5 October 2011

The S-400 defence system, an update from the S-300 which Russia accuses China of trying to copy. Photograph: Andrey Smirnov/AFP/Getty Images

Russia's security service has revealed that it arrested a suspected Chinese spy who posed as a translator while seeking sensitive information on an anti-aircraft system.

The man, identified as Tun Sheniyun, was arrested on 28 October last year, the federal security service (FSB) said in a statement cited by RIA-Novosti news agency.

It was unclear why the FSB disclosed the arrest on Wednesday, less than one week before the prime minister, Vladimir Putin, travels to China on an official visit.

The alleged spy was acting "under the guise of a translator of official delegations", the statement said.

He had "attempted to obtain technological and maintenance documents on the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system from Russian citizens for money", it added. That information is a state secret, it said.

Prosecutors sent the case to court on Tuesday, the statement said. Tun faces charges of attempted espionage.

Last year, Russia delivered 15 S-300 systems to China, a popular Soviet-era arms export, as part of a deal signed several years earlier. Yet Beijing has recently turned to more modern systems.

Putin's two-day visit to China next Tuesday will be his first foreign trip since he announced his planned return to the Russian presidency next year.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the centre for analysis of strategies and technologies, a defence thinktank in Moscow, said: "They [the Chinese] are trying to copy this system illegally. They've already copied a whole series of our weapons.

"They're trying to clone the S-300, to serve their interests and also to export. As I understand it, it's not all working out. They probably wanted extra documentation to better deal with this task of reverse engineering."

A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri) released this week warned that the Sino-Russian relationship was growing increasingly uneasy given China's international rise.

"In the coming years, while relations will remain close at the diplomatic level, the two cornerstones of the partnership over the past two decades – military and energy co-operation – are crumbling," the thinktank wrote. "As a result, Russia's significance to China will continue to diminish."

It said that while more than 90% of China's major conventional weapons imports came from Russia between 1991 and 2010, the volume of imports had declined dramatically in the last five years.

In part, that reflected the development of its own arms industry and the fact that Russia could not meet some of the new demands of the People's Liberation Army as it developed, said Dr Paul Holtom, director of the Sipri arms transfers programme and one of the report's authors.

But it also reflected Russia's diversified customer base, which allowed it to take a tougher negotiating stance with China, particularly given anxiety about how China would use its purchases.

"Russia is unwilling to provide China with advanced weapons and technology, primarily because it is concerned that China will copy Russian technology and compete with Russia on the international arms market," said Holtom.

"The nature of the arms transfer relationship will increasingly be characterised by competition rather than co-operation."

Maintenance and upgrades accounted for perhaps 10% of Russian arms transfers, meaning that Russians do not want to share related documents, he said.

But China also has concerns that some of the technology it is buying is not always up to scratch.

No one at the foreign ministry in Beijing could be reached for comment.

Earlier this year, Ukrainian authorities jailed a Russian man for six years, claiming he was stealing military secrets to further China's aircraft carrier programme.

In the past two years, Russian customs officials have also accused two Chinese citizens of attempting to smuggle spare parts for Russian fighter jets across the border.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2011 14:43

Probably chinese are interested in learning and reverse engineering the more advanced variant of S-300 which is the PMU2, they have purchased it in huge numbers but not yet reversed engineered it.

The HQ-9 seems to be the older S-300 PMU1 or PMU which they had purchased in early 90's and reverse engineered it.

The interesting thing was this guy was caught last october in 2010 but his arrest was made public few days back , so there would have been some CI game played by both agencies.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 07 Oct 2011 14:45

They arrested him a year back, and only now they are telling it , especially few days before putin leaves for china.

Why? Possibly because russia tried to talk to china , asking them to stop copying and reverse engineering

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2011 14:49

krishnan wrote:Why? Possibly because russia tried to talk to china , asking them to stop copying and reverse engineering

You can play games by sending wrong information and let the other guy believe that they are getting what they want and the spy who was caught could be black mailed for playing the game in return for lesser punishment and then you can also see if there is much bigger network at play , if you immediately disclose the arrest then you loose all the advantage that can be taken. Its just a spy war they each side would want to exploit to the fullest.

No doubt the Chinese are quite good with HUMINT gathering as one can see with their exploit in the US but the Russian FSB are no fools either so they must have calmly played the game to the fullest

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 07 Oct 2011 14:58

>>but the Russian FSB are no fools either

Exactly, these guys and their predecessors wrote part of the book on the subject

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Oct 2011 15:38

Big New Chinese Order for Russian Fighter Engines

China has placed additional orders for Russian AL-31-series fighter engines. State arms trade agency Rosoboronexport clinched two big contracts earlier this year. One is for more than 150 AL-31Fs as replacements for earlier engines of same type that power the Su-27/Su-30MKK/MK2 fighters, that are designated J-11 in China. Engines under this contract will be assembled by the Ufa-based UMPO factory.

The second contract is for more than 120 AL-31FN engines to power newly built Chengdu J-10 fighters. Engines under this contract are already being delivered, from the Moscow-based Salut plant.

Speaking to AIN at the Aviation Expo 2011 in Beijing, Salut general director Vladislav Masalov said that negotiations continue on a second batch of nearly 140 AL-31FNs and that a follow-on contract is expected to be signed in October.

Masalov further said that the grand total of Salut-made AL-31 series engines in China “is nearing one thousand units.” To serve them, Salut has established partnerships with Limin Corp. and Tyan Li company in Chengdu on deliveries and manufacturing of spare parts for both the AL-31F and the AL-31FN. Russia has also agreed to provide all necessary maintenance and repair documentation to the Chinese partners. Salut faces many issues pertaining to ramping up production to fill these big Chinese orders, Masalov said. This year the company must increase its production output by 30 to 40 percent to fulfill the Chinese contracts. “Certainly there is some pressure on us, with bottlenecks being metal and vendor items,” Masalov said.

Meanwhile, Salut is negotiating the sale of another 40 AL-31FM1 engines to the Russian Air Force for the Su-27SM upgrade. Twelve have already been ordered. Talks to supply AL-31FM2 versions for the Su-34 continue, Masalov said.

ranjithnath · Post by **ranjithnath** » 07 Oct 2011 17:41

so much for the super duper WS 10 engines !!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Oct 2011 17:47

Someone wanted the PLAN's sub plans-estimate.Here is a Pentagon estimate from a USNI article,54 new subs apart from existing new ly constructed/acquired subs!.

".......the Chinese and North Korean navies—the two most likely to confront the United States and its allies in the coming decades—represent significant, though radically different, subsurface threats. China is investing untold millions of dollars in advanced submarines, including 49 diesel-electric and 5 nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to the Pentagon’s latest estimate.2 North Korea’s submarine force of about 70 diesel-electric boats is far less advanced. But the Cheonan incident is a painful reminder that, when it comes to subsurface warfare, stealth, skill, and patience can overcome technological obstacles."

http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedin ... ace-threat

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 08 Oct 2011 22:24

^^^^
Many people have commented that USN is still superior to PLAN, due to the sheer numbers of nuclear submarines which USN has. Well USN has nuclear submarine because it has to come all the way from Pearl Harbor to Osaka or Taiwan. A distance in excess of 6000 kms. From Pearl harbor to Taiwan's east coast cities the distance is in excess of 7000 kms. Now consider the distance between Chinese Coast and Japan/Taiwan they are barely cross 2000 kms. Ditto for the South-China Seas or as some people have started calling it the ASEAN sea.

If I were a Chinese admiral, i know that my lines of communication are short. I do not need boomers. My boomers need to give me a second strike capability. I dont need them to go out hunting in wolf packs. Add to the fact that US CBGs need to be within some 400-500 kms of the action for them to effective, due to the combat radius limitation of F/A-18 hornets. I would prefer Diesel electric submarines. They are less expensive to built and run, and actually are more silent compared to boomers.
On the other hand if I were an american admiral, I know that my lines of supplies are horrendously long. I have to practically come from across the world to interfere in any conflict over Taiwan or a Korean civil war. I need nuclear submarines. Or my submarines will set off from Pearl Harbour and reach the battle field area and will require immediate refueling, making them dangerously exposed.

But the problem is this, if China is able to deny yanks access to western pacific or make the access cost of USN horrendous then china wins. All China has to do is deny victory to America, even in case of a stalemate, China wins the war of perception. And perception is all that matters. And if USN can be denied access to Western Pacific then there is a big question mark over USN over lordship of other waters too.

Craig Alpert · Post by **Craig Alpert** » 10 Oct 2011 07:39

China's stepped up moves in Maldives worry India

Nihat · Post by **Nihat** » 10 Oct 2011 10:52

Christopher Sidor wrote:^^^^
Many people have commented that USN is still superior to PLAN, due to the sheer numbers of nuclear submarines which USN has. Well USN has nuclear submarine because it has to come all the way from Pearl Harbor to Osaka or Taiwan. A distance in excess of 6000 kms. From Pearl harbor to Taiwan's east coast cities the distance is in excess of 7000 kms. Now consider the distance between Chinese Coast and Japan/Taiwan they are barely cross 2000 kms. Ditto for the South-China Seas or as some people have started calling it the ASEAN sea.

If I were a Chinese admiral, i know that my lines of communication are short. I do not need boomers. My boomers need to give me a second strike capability. I dont need them to go out hunting in wolf packs. Add to the fact that US CBGs need to be within some 400-500 kms of the action for them to effective, due to the combat radius limitation of F/A-18 hornets. I would prefer Diesel electric submarines. They are less expensive to built and run, and actually are more silent compared to boomers.
On the other hand if I were an american admiral, I know that my lines of supplies are horrendously long. I have to practically come from across the world to interfere in any conflict over Taiwan or a Korean civil war. I need nuclear submarines. Or my submarines will set off from Pearl Harbour and reach the battle field area and will require immediate refueling, making them dangerously exposed.

But the problem is this, if China is able to deny yanks access to western pacific or make the access cost of USN horrendous then china wins. All China has to do is deny victory to America, even in case of a stalemate, China wins the war of perception. And perception is all that matters. And if USN can be denied access to Western Pacific then there is a big question mark over USN over lordship of other waters too.

I don't think it's that easy Chris, since the chances of outright war between China and USA are very limited , any conflict will escalate with the US and her allies looking to choke China's sea lines of communication, effectivly trying to get China to give in without firing a single bullet. Nuclear subs will come in very handy in this operation and they can roam far and wide for infinitly long periods of time during an emergency.

China has vital trade lines running through IOR where US has Diego garcia, through the middle east US has a fleet located in BAhrain and not to mention allies like Australia, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan right next door to China to keep them busy on many fronts just trying to break a blockade . To counter this China will need a huge fleet of Surface vessels, ASW corvettes and possibly military bases abroad, for their own sake the better option is to keep quiet and not antagonize India too much or they will have yet another significanct headache to deal with.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Oct 2011 11:21

Under no circumstances should India allow any PLAN foothold in the maldives.WE should not repeat the mistake of Hambantota,where India could've proided Lanka wiht the required help.It will cost us billions later on to counter the PRC,so why not spend much less now helping the Maldives instead of allowing the Chinese a free run in this most strategic of IOR seas? e must also impress upon the maldivians that it was India which came to their rescue years ago when Lankan Tamils tried to stage a coup.Rajiv G took splendid immediate action to squach the coup attempt.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2011 12:36

I don't think it's that easy Chris, since the chances of outright war between China and USA are very limited , any conflict will escalate with the US and her allies looking to choke China's sea lines of communication, effectivly trying to get China to give in without firing a single bullet. Nuclear subs will come in very handy in this operation and they can roam far and wide for infinitly long periods of time during an emergency.

Well if the US and her allies tries to choke the SLOC for the Chinese Merchant and Naval ships and logically if the Chinese tries to break that either by not following laid procedures by US and her allies or if US/Allies tries to fire at the ships or Chinese does it vice verse then its any way nothing short of declaring hostility.

Didn't such a thing happend during Cuban crises where US Navy tried to quarantine Soviet ships merchant and naval leading to a stand off till Soviet back out and US too gave some assurance .

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2011 14:15

Russia and China plans to co-develop new long-haul wide-body plane and heavy helicopter.

Russia, China on home stretch in talks on long-range plane project

BEIJING, October 10 (Itar-Tass) — Russia and China have entered the final phase in the negotiations on the crationt of long-range plane project, RF Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov told journalists on the results of the 15th meeting of the Russian-Chinese commission for the preparation of regular meetings between the two countries’ governments.

“We’ve come to grips with discussing the project to create a long-haul wide-body plane,” said Zhukov. “Our Chinese partners have taken a long time to consider if they should engage in cooperation with us, and now we are closely dealing with this.”

The RF deputy prime minister also said that another project on the creations of a heavy helicopter is being actively discussed at present.

adityadange · Post by **adityadange** » 10 Oct 2011 14:30

^^^ It should be of civilian use.
......“During Russian-Chinese talks, the sides plan to discuss a wide range of issues of economic, scientific, technical and humanitarian cooperation. Special attention will be paid to the improvement of the mutual trade infrastructure, expansion of investment interaction and cooperation in highly technological fields, and implementation of long-term projects in the field of energy....
-no mention of military cooperation.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2011 15:19

Yes long-haul wide-body plane is civilian and heavy helicopter is both civil/military in nature. Actually they can use the wide body aircraft as aerial refuellers in A-330 class.

Here are more details on the on heavy helicopter from recent Chinese Air Show

Russia and China Establish Joint Venture For Helicopters

Russian Helicopters established a joint venture with Avic’s helicopter division, Russian Helicopter general director Dmitry Petrov told AIN. The joint venture, Sino-Russian Helicopter Services, will initially provide technical support to all Russian helicopter models operating in China. It will subsequently develop repair and overhaul, and final assembly capabilities.

Speaking at the Aviation Expo 2011 in Beijing, Petrov said that the joint venture was already constructing a new production facility in Xingdao, with a decision on which type to produce expected by year-end. “The Chinese market is one of the largest for Russian Helicopters today and it will continue this way in foreseeable future. We are actively negotiating a number of cooperative programs and new deliveries,” he said.

Petrov also referred to the proposed joint development of a next generation heavy-lift helicopter. “We have already come to agreement on a number of very important issues. Our final offer is on their table,” he said. The takeoff weight would be 38 metric tonnes (101,800 pounds), which is somewhat lighter than the Mi-26. Negotiations to supply more Mi-26s were also taking place, he added. Four have already been supplied.

Petrov noted that Russia and China recently signed a number of agreements to defend property rights. This has eased fears that China would reverse-engineer Russian designs. “They tried to copy our helicopters in the past, but nothing good came out of it. It seems a lot more fruitful to them to get a proper license for local assembly,” Petrov concluded.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 10 Oct 2011 23:02

Petrov noted that Russia and China recently signed a number of agreements to defend property rights. This has eased fears that China would reverse-engineer Russian designs. “They tried to copy our helicopters in the past, but nothing good came out of it. It seems a lot more fruitful to them to get a proper license for local assembly,” Petrov concluded.

hmm.... Shree Dmitry Petrov looks like a Russian SpongeBob Squarepants to reach that happy conclusion. Russian MBA programs seems certainly catching up with the western ones

Drishyaman · Post by **Drishyaman** » 11 Oct 2011 20:41

Cross Posting

Hitesh wrote:Boreas and Pratyush, let us not get too far at this point. Right now, India and Japan is engaged in confidence building measures and building a budding friendship. But by no means, when the first bullets fly, should we expect Japan to come to our aid militarily. I mean take a look at the Iraq War and Afghanistan War, Japan spent years dithering over whether to send combat SUPPORT troops! in fear of violating their pacifist constitution.
All in all, I wouldn't hold my breath over Japan doing something to help us. In a shooting war with China, the only help we are gonna get from Japan are some nice words and pats on the back and telling us to buckle up and grin and hope for the best. Militarily, Japan would not do anything to upset the Chinese and the Chinese are smart enough not to do anything stupid that would upset the Japanese. In short, China doesn't have to do that much to ensure a one front war with India.
To me, this kind of exercise is just a photo type exercise thing only good for the consumption of the masses but nothing tangible will come out of it. Nothing like the alliance between Japan and US.

In present day world of economic inter-dependency, nobody (big economies) can afford full fledge war without collateral damage. Even if a country does not suffer militarily, it will suffer economically, fall in production (diversion of human resources), fall in exports, sanctions etc.

Best thing a country can do is “Khujli”. There are lots of khujli materials around viz, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Mongolia and ofcourse the biggest one Uttar Arunachal Pradesh. And most important thing is that we have been successful this recently in South China Sea and as a consequence of that Philippines and Vietnam had some harsh words for the panda.
That is the way forward IMHO.

Boreas · Post by **Boreas** » 11 Oct 2011 20:42

Cross Post (From Missile thread)

Singha wrote:lizard will not wait until we ponderouslt build up. he will strike when he can. a 1962 type debacle will crush indian national morale and lose us many potential allies and opportunities.

IF there is a Indo-China armed conflict in this decade - India can't win it.

Where to win, means India being able to push china behind there present lines, or may be even liberate some of chinese occupied land which we claim is ours. We can't pull that.

Having said that, China can't win it either.

Where winning for china means pushing Indian army behind there present occupational position, particularly in NE. At best China may inflict higher damage then we can. But that's the best they can do.

Its a contest which none of the participant can win right now. BUT India can become the ultimate gainer just by holding its position.

1962 can't happen again. Mao picked a small but perfect window in time to invade India in 1962. Beyond that chinese wouldn't have been able to pull something similar even if they tried it in 1963.

In present scenario chances of getting "any" favorable result in a war is negligible for china. It will lose men and equipment, will expose low quality of its home grown arms and it will push them 3 to 5 years behind in economical development.

India if able to defend itself against such aggression (which it 100% can), will in a moment come out of 1962 "chinese can teach us a lesson" mindset. Plus India will gain even more free access to cutting edge US technology, whereas chinese will lose chances of getting EU arms tech for few more decades.

Fact is IF GoI gets little serious towards our military preparations, day is not far China will be afraid of India and not the other way round.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 Oct 2011 16:03

http://www.bharatrakshak.com/NEWS/newsr ... wsid=15930
mmmm... why say it at all? it will show weakness.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 12 Oct 2011 17:30

Boreas wrote:Cross Post (From Missile thread)

Singha wrote:lizard will not wait until we ponderouslt build up. he will strike when he can. a 1962 type debacle will crush indian national morale and lose us many potential allies and opportunities.
IF there is a Indo-China armed conflict in this decade - India can't win it.

Where to win, means India being able to push china behind there present lines, or may be even liberate some of chinese occupied land which we claim is ours. We can't pull that.

Having said that, China can't win it either.

Where winning for china means pushing Indian army behind there present occupational position, particularly in NE. At best China may inflict higher damage then we can. But that's the best they can do.

Its a contest which none of the participant can win right now. BUT India can become the ultimate gainer just by holding its position.

We can win. We need three things
1) To grow IA from its current 1.1-1.2 million strength to 1.7-1.8 million strong with two mountain strike corps one in north east, i.e. AP and another in Ladakh-Himachal belt.
2) ITBP has to grow to a strength to about 7 lakhs or 0.7 million. Ideally it should be 1 million, i.e. 10 lakhs, but well we have to compromise. Further ITBP should not be deployed for any purpose other than manning the McMohan Line.
3) We need to build an airlift capability, so that we can fly and sustain two divisions, either for desert warfare or for non-mountain warfare over the himalayas.

Time taken to grow IA from its current strength to its target strength, about 3-4 years. Ditto for ITBP. For the Air lift capability it will take about 5 years to full field such a capability. The only thing that will hold us back is our economy and budget deficit. Otherwise it will not take much to defeat the Chinkis.

We can defeat PLA/PLAAF over tibet and east turkestan. Let us not wait till 2020. We can do it in this decade. All it requires is will.

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 12 Oct 2011 18:00

Boreas wrote:Cross Post (From Missile thread)
Mao picked a small but perfect window in time to invade India in 1962.

May be they are waiting for the right opportunity. With a country as volatile as ours anything can happen anytime. Politicians doing stupidity resulting is fall of govt running on coalition is not an unrealistic scenario (ex Left parties.. nuclear deal). India would never attack China even if the govt falls there but Chinese would love to exploit the situation if such an emergency happens in India.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Oct 2011 19:58

sarkar wrote:
Boreas wrote:Cross Post (From Missile thread)
Mao picked a small but perfect window in time to invade India in 1962.
May be they are waiting for the right opportunity. With a country as volatile as ours anything can happen anytime. Politicians doing stupidity resulting is fall of govt running on coalition is not an unrealistic scenario (ex Left parties.. nuclear deal). India would never attack China even if the govt falls there but Chinese would love to exploit the situation if such an emergency happens in India.

It is interesting to see Indian after Indian expressing very little confidence in India as nation and the ability of indians to survive as a nation. I never see Chinese doing that and Pakistanis who do that are rare even today. Dhotis are very Indian, but shivering should be universal no?

The fact that educated Indians say this in forum after forum and medium after medium cannot go unnoticed by the Chinese (or others) . It is usable information. I would certainly utilise it if I were a Chinese leader. And you can expect that the West can read this as useful psy-ops information.

Well I personally have stoped caring - Indians will not change anytime soon. They will never stop expressing self doubt. They will not become self confident in my lifetime - there are just too many self doubting educated Indians. Note the poor guy who thought we need permission from UN to do a missile test

This is how we educate Indian kids. They become adults who are shitting bricks at the thought of China and other nations

Just because people express self doubt it does not mean that the nation cannot survive or that there is no one able to do what is needed. It is merely an Indian characteristic to be full of self doubt and the educated Indian has deep knowledge of history to prove beyond all questioning that his self doubt is 400% right. But if I were opposed to India I would work on figuring out how to use the "lack of confidence/self doubt" of educated Indians to "scare them shitless" in some way and paralyse the action of even those who are ready and working to do what is needed.

When you have the majority of educated Indians expressing extreme fear of China the worst thing China could do would be to sit back and do nothing. A staged incident to "shame" India would scare a lot more Indians apart from allowing the normal bunch of dhoti-shiverers to shit in their langotis and say "We told you so". Mao was clever enough to do that. The only problem with staging such incidents is it things go wrong and push comes to shove the dhoti shivering people may actually win a victory despite continuous caterwauls from Indian. That would not be good. The uncertainty of that is what would hold China in check.

Time pass onlee. I personally thin it is no use discussing war and defence with people who are scared of someone imposing war on us. Fear of war cannot stop war. Fear that we are not ready is something I have observed among Indians for decades and nothing will make Indians believe that we are ready or trying to be ready. Reassurance is totally pointless for people who are convinced that we are incapable as a people. This is not a discussion. It's psychiatry. I'm not joking. We have a mass mental problem just like Packees have their brand of overconfident bluster.

prithvi · Post by **prithvi** » 12 Oct 2011 20:25

shiv wrote: It is interesting to see Indian after Indian expressing very little confidence in India as nation and the ability of indians to survive as a nation. I never see Chinese doing that and Pakistanis who do that are rare even today. Dhotis are very Indian, but shivering should be universal no?

You never see Chinese doing that because either they are not allowed to (state prosecution) or they are inside a jail or already being executed.. you want us to do the same?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Oct 2011 20:33

prithvi wrote:
shiv wrote: It is interesting to see Indian after Indian expressing very little confidence in India as nation and the ability of indians to survive as a nation. I never see Chinese doing that and Pakistanis who do that are rare even today. Dhotis are very Indian, but shivering should be universal no?
You never see Chinese doing that because either they are not allowed to (state prosecution) or they are inside a jail or already being executed.. you want us to do the same?

Yes i want to see Indians doing the same and I put it to you that Indians will never do the same. Indians make up every possible excuse to say how weak India is and every possible reason to show that China is strong. No argument is good enough to shake an Indian's under confidence.

So go on. Make my day. Lets see some confident Indians. A confident Indian is looked down upon as a horrible self deluding monstrosity who is blind to Indian history. The Indian's world view is upset by the idea of a self confident India and Indians appearing to work together. Show me something different. Let's see.

prithvi · Post by **prithvi** » 12 Oct 2011 20:44

prithvi wrote:
shiv wrote: You never see Chinese doing that because either they are not allowed to (state prosecution) or they are inside a jail or already being executed.. you want us to do the same?

Yes i want to see Indians doing the same and I put it to you that Indians will never do the same. Indians make up every possible excuse to say how weak India is and every possible reason to show that China is strong. No argument is good enough to shake an Indian's under confidence.

So go on. Make my day. Lets see some confident Indians. A confident Indian is looked down upon as a horrible self deluding monstrosity who is blind to Indian history. The Indian's world view is upset by the idea of a self confident India and Indians appearing to work together. Show me something different. Let's see.

You are making no sense ... have you comprehended what I asked? Do you want our country to prosecute every possible Indians posting or making anti-India remarks..? just today .. someone mentioned about freeing Kashmir from armed forces.. in China do you think someone can do that about Tibet in Beijing and live to have his cup of tea next morning?.. do you think something like Anna Hazare would have been possible in China.. (without getting into whether Anna is right or wrong).. democracy has its own weaknesses as well for Jhingos..

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Oct 2011 21:14

prithvi wrote: You are making no sense ... have you comprehended what I asked? Do you want our country to prosecute every possible Indians posting or making anti-India remarks..?

Why not? You are the one who brought up this strawman from my post that has nothing to do with what you said. Lets see India prosecuting people for anti-India remarks. Can you do that? I bet you won't be able to do that even if I asked you to. After all you asked me what I want and I told you. Don't like it? Tough. If you can do it I am sure you can make Indians change and show some spine for a change.

prithvi · Post by **prithvi** » 12 Oct 2011 21:44

shiv wrote:
prithvi wrote: You are making no sense ... have you comprehended what I asked? Do you want our country to prosecute every possible Indians posting or making anti-India remarks..?
Why not? You are the one who brought up this strawman from my post that has nothing to do with what you said. Lets see India prosecuting people for anti-India remarks. Can you do that? I bet you won't be able to do that even if I asked you to. After all you asked me what I want and I told you. Don't like it? Tough. If you can do it I am sure you can make Indians change and show some spine for a change.

Never-mind .. want to "do" that means collectively can we allow our nation to go down the path of intolerance.. no matter how we hate these individuals.. we might still have to hold to virtue of freedom of speech and liberty.. ..

you might be on an emotional or whatever high . but having a fruitful discussion at this juncture seems an unrealistic expectation so lets have a closure

sarkar · Post by **sarkar** » 13 Oct 2011 00:09

shiv wrote: Fear of war cannot stop war. Fear that we are not ready is something I have observed among Indians for decades and nothing will make Indians believe that we are ready or trying to be ready. Reassurance is totally pointless for people who are convinced that we are incapable as a people. This is not a discussion. It's psychiatry.

Got it.

I am not scared though. I do believe that every moment someone somewhere is taking care of our country's defense. Even at this very moment my own brother is patrolling at some border.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 13 Oct 2011 04:30

US's greatest weapon is about to be launched against the Chinease, demanding a stronger CNY. If China does not appreciate their currency, the US will impose duties. It is one of the few taxes Obama can get away with.
The Chinease have nothing meaningfull to retaliate with. If they sell US gov bonds, they them selfs will be the greatest loosers.

An appreciation of CNY will have a good impact on India as it will make India more competative.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Oct 2011 05:48

sarkar wrote:Even at this very moment my own brother is patrolling at some border.

May God or whoever is around protect your brother. He does not deserve to have to protect a nation of people who can predict war and smell defeat in that future war from a distance.

There is a near continuous expression of fear of China from some Indian or other on this forum and in the media. Mao scared the shit out of our parents and grandparents and that fear has been passed on to us by generations of moaners. They have all been brought up to understand how we are a bunch of losers. We have centuries of experience of losing. The names of traitors and losers come easily to our lips and we see a replay of the actions of all those defeats every day. And when someone mentions the word China the pant soiling starts off.

Fear that China will impose war and fear that India will lose war are completely useless for a discussion forum. They are useful only on a psychiatrist's couch. No soldier who is in combat goes in without fear. He is shit scared. He does not go in saying like they say in Masterchef Australia "I'm going to win this Italian dessert challenge. I'm going to win this immunity pin"

He goes in only with the hope that he will acquit himself creditably and not let his mates down. He is hardly singing "Jhanda ooncha rahe hamaara. Cheenastan murdabad!" Note that guy who really should be shit scared of losing a battle, or worse, being killed or maimed, is actually scared, but he goes into fight anyway not asking whether he will win or lose. He does not ask "Is my adversary Chinese or Paki. Is he firing RPGs at me, 5.56 or 7.62 or 12 mm. Have we lost all previous wars or not? How many trillions in my adversary's economy?" He just goes in, fear and all.

On here, in such discussions - we start by asking "Who is our adversary? When the reply is "China" the response is "We have lost" or "We will lose" And if any fool has the insufferable stupidity to ask "Why?" - then we have a hundred thousand reasons to explain why we will lose the war as we have always lost. Names like Jaichand or Shakuni roll off easily. We are intellectuals. Historians. Defeatologists. We know defeat and can smell it from a mile when we learn the name of our adversary. China. Kaul, Nehru, Krishnamenon are names that are alive for us. Cariappa, Manekshaw, Ranjit Singh are all dead. We know that the actions of the former group will be repeated by our countrymen, the acts of acts of leadership or valor of the latter group were just random bright flashes in history.

This sort of mind set does not change easily. We have 400 million (or more) under 15s all of them being indoctrinated into the same education we have had. An education in the defeats of history and the joys of being mentally subjugated, knowing that at any given moment there is always someone who will defeat you and end your current false sense of comfort. PhDs in defeatology. It is amusing to see Pakistanis doing a similar, but opposite thing. Pakis tell themselves "We are Mughals. We are winners. We will win. The Hindu will run at the sound of gunfire". And we Indians say "China? Heck We are finished. We will lose" It's a mental attitude. National sickness.

Airavat · Post by **Airavat** » 13 Oct 2011 06:31

^^^^+1

Sabyasachi · Post by **Sabyasachi** » 13 Oct 2011 08:18

Great post Shiv. There should be a thanks/like button.

member_20010 · Post by **member_20010** » 13 Oct 2011 08:30

Shiv, I have been a lurker for several years now but was never tempted to post but now. Your these series of posts are simply brilliant.

manum · Post by **manum** » 13 Oct 2011 08:40

India is still in process of standardizing its manufacturing industry and setting norms where they should be...in practice...

This whole thing is raising the cost...One way we are actually now finding things reaching their real price...Indian Industry mostly like whole of world is also on trend to import the goods from usual manufacturer...and this dependency is growing as price are rising....lets say the wood used to make plywood banned to cut or plant due to enviroment norms put in place...means price rise...

I dont know if its because of artificially weak Chinese currency...or Indian manufacturer's dont want to re-invent wheel of goods manufacturing....There is whole new level of threat we are going to find ourselves in, as Indian manufacturer's are simply becoming importer exporters....

China is going to hold a great leverage on Indian economy...so Its important we eat the bitter pill and put some duty on chinese goods...
While we try to compete...

Or we put onus on other smaller nations like Burma, vietnam, thailand, Bangladesh, singapore to create industries which serve our cause....

Actually even BSNL imports chinese telecom products...A majority of Indian population...as I live in U.P. lives on agriculture...if only 5-10 percent of them go on to manufacturing while we try to increase grain production per unit land through better research and management...

In 10 years we'll do it...but for manufacturing shift and to be competitive we need electricity and better transport...like better roads, India is still struggling and its stuck in lots of complexity...

There is a lot of realizations of dangers looming...which is greater than military...There is great resolve demanded from Indian decision makers...there is such a tremendous potential hidden in Those less connected, electricity less towns...all we need to show them, facilitate and push in direction of prosperity, and give them whole world to compete and supply...

Indian policy makers are so stuck and ignorant...I cant believe it, they cant even transfer the intent of why every Indian must know the world outside and learn to prosper himself...than simply seeking govt. Job....or some corrupt practice...

This is so lame....there is whole mountain we have to move...but then its a must, lets do it...We also need an army on economic front...

Sabyasachi · Post by **Sabyasachi** » 13 Oct 2011 11:55

In any Indo-Sino war victorious is not going to be decided by who suffered least casualties or attrition but who stood fast for a reasonable cause. Any gains earned by forces are advantageous but wining a propaganda war is more important than winning it military. We have to do our homework (pre war work up) to establish propaganda (reasonable cause) objectives before even discussing how prepared we are militarily.

I would say we all jingos need to pause a bit and condition ourselves as a mentally strong breed who does not underestimate ourselves, before pretending nitpicking scientists.