Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -II

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devesh
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

Rahul M wrote:btw, has anyone gone through nicholas dirk's book on the caste system ? his focus is on the south and he shows with how caste identities ossified and indeed became more discriminatory with direct assistance of colonial rule.

no use, RM ji. the role of the foreign will never be acknowledged. it will always be about the non-Abrahamic "upper class" and their evil scheming. the role of foreign colonialists in identity creation and assistance in solidifying those identities and creating fault-lines based on those artificial identities will never be accepted. the role of the foreign imperialists in breaking down the social compact between the labor classes and rulers will never be acknowledged. instead, there will be polemical muses about how some mythical force pushed the "60%" into "lower class"....
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by svinayak »

Enough of the colonial narratives and we should discuss it another thread and let us focus on the thread topic.
Effects of colonization may be good new topic for this
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by vish_mulay »

http://www.rediff.com/news/2006/may/23franc.htm
There are 50 Sulabh Shauchalayas (public toilets) in Delhi; all of them are cleaned and looked after by Brahmins (this very welcome public institution was started by a Brahmin). A far cry from the elitist image that Brahmins have!

There are five to six Brahmins manning each Shauchalaya. They came to Delhi eight to ten years back looking for a source of income, as they were a minority in most of their villages, where Dalits are in majority (60 per cent to 65 per cent). In most villages in UP and Bihar, Dalits have a union which helps them secure jobs in villages.
Did you know that you also stumble upon a number of Brahmins working as coolies at Delhi's railway stations? One of them, Kripa Shankar Sharma, says while his daughter is doing her Bachelors in Science he is not sure if she will secure a job.
You also find Brahmin rickshaw pullers in Delhi. 50 per cent of Patel Nagar's rickshaw pullers are Brahmins who like their brethren have moved to the city looking for jobs for lack of employment opportunities and poor education in their villages.
In modern India it appears Bramhins are the cause of all evils. Read it to see what the true situation of bramhins in modern India is.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RamaY »

KLNMurthy wrote:The heartwarming smiles of joy and devotion in the lower picture will provide the answer to end the wailing which in any case might be a selective portrayal of a vocal minority for propaganda purposes.

There are always exceptions but you must be aware that the ignorance of denying temple entry is well understood in Hindu dna from aeons ago. All the hadiths so to speak are against exclusion.
KLNM garu,

The MB and Ramayana doesn't mention any temples and icon-worship. They talk about Tirthas and Tapovanas.

Since Chrisitan-enslaved intellectuals date MB and RA to be written around 400-500 BC then there shouldn't have been any temples till 400-500 BC.

So all this temple construction and associated discrimination must have started after the advent of Buddhism. In one of the books I read, temples were constructed to give a roopa to various avatars and gods to fight Buddhist idol worship.

Similarly the theory of caste system is said to have come after Islamic Invasions (there was some Rediff article too by Varsha Bhosle long ago on this topic).

Tens of millions died at the swords of Islamic hoards denying to convert to Islam. However some people did convert to Islam for various reasons. These weaklings were said to be denied access to their forsaken roots in those days.

Since we are in the process of accepting the Christian and Islamic violent past, perhaps the estranged hindus of india too should ignore Hindu protectionist histrionics too and return to Hindu fold.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/displayarti ... ional&col=

Hyderabad to get Sufi study centre
Shaikh Hashimuddin Gilani, the caretaker of the shrine of the revered Sufi saint Hazrat Shaikh Abdul Qadir Jilani of Baghdad, has announced that a Sufi study centre will be set up in Hyderabad to promote the principles of brotherhood and humanity.
Shaikh Hashim, who is in the city as part of his 12-day tour of India to spread the teachings of Sufism, said: “India and Baghdad enjoy a very close relationship. During the time of my great-grandfather, Shaikh Abdul Qadir Jilani, many Shaikhs were sent to Indian cities like Hyderabad. Sufism has been in this country since then with its diverse culture and tradition.”

Stating that the very concept of Sufism was to show love and affection for fellow human beings and to spread it among all of humanity, he said: “Sufism can resolve all modern day social dilemmas.”

Shaikh Hashim, who runs ‘Ghousia Centre for Sufism’, a centre for study of Sufism in Baghdad, said he will set up a similar centre here in the city. This is Shaikh Hashim’s first trip to Hyderabad after he was selected as the caretaker of Shaikh Abdul Qadir Jilani’s shrine. Prior to this, he had visited Hyderabad 10 years ago with his father.

During the course of his India visit, Shaikh Hashim will also be visiting Mumbai, Mangalore, Chennai and Trivandrum.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by vishvak »

Theo_Fidel wrote:No one still wants to take on the question of how 60% of India became classified as bottom of the barrel.
Let me add my 2 paise.

In short it is about barbaric warmongering colonialism that has brought the society to this level.

Information link: Indigeneous Education In The 18Th Century

So till 18th century, the situation was like quite fair, in fact in education sector there were more "Shudra" caste than others.

What happened between 18th century and today, was one of the biggest barbaric anti-human warmongering events loosely called as 'colonialism'.

The effect of colonialism is not hidden. Amongst the richest in the world, Indians was enslaved and exploited to the maximum, and it is indeed tragedy of the world that it had religious authority.
‘Popular Education’ even at this period was still approached as a missionary enterprise, meaning the maxim was ‘that every child should learn to read the Bible’. After some time attention was focused on daily schools. Things moved hereon, nevertheless, as late as 1834, “the curriculum in the better class of national schools was limited in the main to religious instruction, reading & arithmetic, in some country schools writing was excluded for fear of evil consequences”
This was the state of affairs in those barbaric times in UK.

The tables in the link show how well and varied the subjects were taught across India.

On the other hand, refer this link per the same, at the bottom conclusion is that
• Sudras made up 45% of the scholars as compared to Brahmins 23%, today is probably the reverse.
...
• 12500 schools & colleges. The British first killed these institutions, then brought in Anglicized education into India through the missionaries.
This is why the current education system, built blood and ashes of the earlier one, can never reduce poverty. It is indeed strange that religious authorities that once opposed sciences and maths are in the lead to teach maths & science.

Also by the last page per it link:
Efforts were made by the government to confine higher education and secondary education, leading to higher education, to boys in affluent circumstances… Rules were made calculated to restrict the diffusion of education generally and among the poorer boys in particular. Conditions for “recognition” for grants-stiff and various-were laid down and enforced, and the non-fulfillment of any one of these conditions was liable to be followed by serious consequences. Fees were raised to a degree, which, considering the circumstances of the classes that resort to schools, were abnormal. When it was objected that minimum fee would be a great hardship to poor students the answer was such students had no business to receive that kind of education. Managers of private schools, who remitted fees in whole or in part, were penalized by reduced grants-in-aid.
Such barbaric differences were introduced during the barbaric colonial times.

The Anglicized education is thus meant to perpetuate this, not overcome it. One can not perpetuate such a system and then ask who did it?

While we are at it, can we ask the same question about the global village too? Or is it haraam?

Why do some countries control oil trade & technologies? Is it not 'unfair', keeping other humans from learning and becoming as rich? Is it not barbaric at global village level? Why this change in behavior from global village to the nation?

The difference between Brahmins at global level and the upper caste in India is nothing but religion. Can I ask the same question then, w.r.t. global village, why do Hindus have to go through this barbarism in trade and technology?

This is just about education. In which other country there is history of kings of 'Shudra' caste? In which other country there is this idea of 'Sarve Dharma Sama Bhava'? Indeed it could be just that the poor have found the best of worlds not based on religion but Dharma in India and India alone.

Please give reference before comparing.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by johneeG »

Temple or idol culture in not absent in Ramayana or Mahabharata.

In Ayodhya Kaanda of Srimadh Valmiki Ramayana, emperor Dasharatha wants to coronate his elder son ,Sri Rama as his heir apparent. He accordingly requests Vashishta, their priest and preceptor, to instruct Sita and Rama about the procedure to spend the night. Vashishta does so. As instructed, Sri Rama and Sita fast that night and sleep on a mattress of kusha(holy grass) spread on the ground inside the temple of Vishnu. The temple has the idol of Lord Vishnu.

In Sundara Kaanda, Hanuman enters Lanka, the capital of rakshasas, to search for Sita. The detailed description of Lanka is given by Bhagwan Valmiki. He also mentions an idol of Goddess Lakshmi seated in lotus and holding two lotuses. In the depiction, elephants are sprinkling water onto the Goddess. It is clearly mentioned that Hanuman noticed the signs that the idol was recently duly worshipped.

In Bhagavatam, Rukmini visits the temple of Lord Shiva and Goddess Parvati to pray. It is from this place that Sri Krishna elopes with her and marries.

Sri Krishna himself has mentioned in Uddhava Gita that God can be worshipped in sun, moon, an ardent devotee or an idol.

Idol is for people of lower spiritual calibre, which means 99% of people in Kali Yuga. So, idolotry is a spiritual tech that enables anyone and everyone to access highly difficult concept called God.

The dharma changes with time, place and circumstance. In Krita Yuga, the emphasis is on dhyana. In Treta, the tapas take precedence. In dwapara, sacrifices(yagna) are the priority. In Kali, bhakti is stressed.

A tech is considered to have evolved, when it is user friendly and affordable to all. By the same definition, idols and temples make spirituality affordable to all. Even a small child can envisage and worship God through idols.

Just because some 'prophets', assuming they existed, couldnt fathom the significance of idol worship, does not mean we forego this fantastic concept.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RamaY »

johneeG garu ;)
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

The Qadiryia order's spreading tentacles in Hyderabad in a visible way is a forewarning. Don't forget that the founder of the system established his claim of being able to put his "feet" on the shoulders of all Walis [with a possible political support from the then Caliphate at Baghdad].

It was he who sent of Munialdin Chisti of Ajmer [he was originally suppose dto be from Khorasan or spent his formative years there] to "conquer" India for the Sunni Sufi order. It was Muinaldin who hase been described by his followers to have ordered that a cow be brought every day into a temple at Ajmer where he and his followers took up "residence" and that the cow be sluaghtered and eaten there. This was done to show to the local "Hindoos" that they were powerless to prevent the deeds of such an accomplished spiritual leader. It wa sthen that the local Hindu chief was forced to come to him and bring him into the city and offer him residence. Muinaldin chose the residence of the chief itself and renamed him as "Shadi" Deva [joyful deva - who was apparently shaking and smiling in joy at the sight of Muinaldin and his followers].

The real power behind this spiritualness becomes obvious when the same Sufi source also narrates as that Muinaldin the peaceful sufi dreamt of his prophet visting him in a dream and adminishing him for not yet consummating the prophetic sunna of marriage. Promptly the "muslim commander" raided a local Hindu chief's place in a night raid [that same night or next night] and abducted the chief's daughter and brought her to Muinaldin who immediately converted her, renamed her and "married" her.

If dreams are so quickly communicated to Muslim commanders - it shows that the Muslim army was never very far from the sufi spiritual leaders to do their bidding. Remember also that Sha Jalal who is supposed to have Sufily conquered Sylhet [now in BD] actually accompanied an expeditionary Islamic army sent off from then Gaur. He also "defeated" the local Hindu/Buddhist ruler, participating ina ctual battles, and on the battlefield the chiefs daughter fell instantly in love with him, and he converted and married her immediately [also renamed her].

Think a while before swallowing the claims of peaceful Qadiryia - especially in the historical reminder of a place once ruled by the Nizam. Moreover, many reports indicate increasinga ttempts ate spreading and consolidating Islamic networks in AP-TN-Karnataka. They ahev Kerala more or less in pocket, so now they are trying to spread out and envelop the centre from the coasts.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

There is a Qadiryia network already running from the south up through to the north into UP - throughh local mosques and other establishments. The connection is thicker through the western route. So this gives a reason for the stress to spread into the eastern flank. Shah Islamil Dehelvi - one of the striongest claimants to introducing Wahabism into India - recognized the Qadiryia founder as the source of inspiration and spiritual ancestry. Thus even Wahabism in India is sort of linked up with this grand sweep of Sunni control over Sufism.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

B ji,

why now? has it been in the planning for a while, or is it a new development based on recent happenings in the region? this sufi stuff attacks the weak point of Indic psyche. is that the goal. do they detect "danger" in the coming years, that they are trying to pacify it will the sufi taqyia, to keep the "Hindu" under delusion?
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by svinayak »

Pak is being primed for global spread.
They need India in their control and they will pump in money
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by shyam »

devesh wrote:things will start getting interesting when you have people with one "brahmin" parent and one "shudra" parent. what is their classification? I know of a cousin in the extended family who married a "shudra" woman. what are their offspring? "brahmin" or "shudra"? in my generation, in the extended family, at least a half of the marriages have been outside of "brahmin". this is a record. till now, it was strictly rules/regulations when it came to marriages. but the present generation in their 20's has made a drastic leap. so, what are their offspring?
I have a friend who is a brahmin and married a muslim girl - both of them are uber secularists. My friend's father ensured that friend conducted "upnayanam" for his son. Being hardcore secular, my friend was happy to do that, but I think his father set a good precedence.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Klaus »

devesh wrote: why now? has it been in the planning for a while, or is it a new development based on recent happenings in the region? this sufi stuff attacks the weak point of Indic psyche. is that the goal. do they detect "danger" in the coming years, that they are trying to pacify it will the sufi taqyia, to keep the "Hindu" under delusion?
Apologies for butting in. The "danger" they detect is that they are running out of oil and hence time and money in the ME. We will see the most intense push in recent memory, a last ditch effort which might yet tip the scales. No wonder, mainstream India might be looking to re-embrace Buddhism as an effective coping mechanism. There are a few data points in this direction.

Added: Sufism is a re-packaging of tribal practices which has appeal from East Africa to India to SE Asia. The area where its nuisance value hits threshold level is the practice of honor killings, in turn this is the area from where Rudra will have to begin the final cleansing.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

you are not butting in Klaus. since it was Bji's post I was replying to, I addressed him. this is an open forum we all are welcome to contribute. how is Buddhism a coping mechanism? either way, the Deccan should prepare itself for another "invasion". there has been too much heat in the last 5 years on Maharashtra and AP. Karnataka not so much but even there things are starting to spread especially now that the BJP has a stronghold and "center" can't have that. and things show signs of getting worse only, with no visible "resistance" anywhere in sight, either inside the region or outside.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

devesh wrote:B ji,

why now? has it been in the planning for a while, or is it a new development based on recent happenings in the region? this sufi stuff attacks the weak point of Indic psyche. is that the goal. do they detect "danger" in the coming years, that they are trying to pacify it will the sufi taqyia, to keep the "Hindu" under delusion?
There are many reasons. The sufis are always sent forward when the islamist political forces plan to expand into a region. The Islamists of ME are simply biding for the time and preparing for a post-USA ME. The south of India is a key to a lot of networks. You need it as a bridge between SE Asian Islamism and Arab Islamism. [Think demographic continuity with Malaysia, and Gulf - both have a common node in claimed ethnicities of the south.]

Moreover the image of Sufis as Persian subverts of Arab-Sunni-Islamism is actually a false one. It was historically true a long long time ago. But that image is cleverly used now to create a false impression for non-Muslims. Modern sufism has mostly yielded up to explicit sunni-mullahesque control. Qadiryia power centre still lies symbolically in Iraq.

The equations of evolution should be apparent. USA has scaled down its ops there, leaving possibly a structure very similar in its lying low and providing info character - as the Brits did when they left India formally.

On the one hand it is a fight between Christianity and Islam for control of the southern tip, and behind it an imperialist fight whereby the Islamics are playing at being factional and infighting - with each faction helping factions of imperialism within Christian Anglo-Germanic front.

One internal reason for intensification of this contest is perhaps both a sense of desperation in the westerna nd Islamic economies, as well as an increasingly strengthening perception [imagined or real] of the Indian rashtra heading for a period of weak autocrats, strong centrifugal forces nurtured and encouraged by an alliance of Indians and externals, and that each imperialist must hurry up to stake their positional claims before others get entrenched.

There is a well recognized vacuum being anticipated at the top.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Klaus »

devesh wrote:how is Buddhism a coping mechanism?
With the present culture of mercantile "trade-offs" present in Indian society, parts of urban India might feel the urge to take on aspects of Buddhism, the common reasoning given is that it is an aping of the west, however the movement will be guided by strategic flows in the coasts and growing pressure from Abrahamic forces in the hinterlands.

The coping aspect comes in where the decolonisation process happens in a step-wise process, while the previous layers of invader's culture is still allowed to persist and flourish, this would see certain sections turning Buddhist version of WKK's.

One datapoint which validates Bji's argument about demographic continuity is Thai investments in Bodh Gaya to upgrade infrastructure as well as upkeeps of the stupas.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Acharya wrote:Pak is being primed for global spread.
They need India in their control and they will pump in money
Pak's main selling point as ummah's gatekeeper is its strategic location and its supposed demography under the shades of Islamism. It is more advanced than AFG in its economics or modernization in terms of modern state characteristics and has a window into the ocean. It can extract useful political and material resources if necessary - by a clever whine+roar manipulation of Indian regimes.

It is playing a most interesting game, and heading towards irrelevance of the civilian gov. The transition of the paki state from its current form to a more overtly islamist army controlled form is on the way. If the west is doing the needling in a calculated way in coordination with an understanding with India - then thats not so bad. It will tie up the Indian rashtra into a process from which at least the congrez cannot opt out unless it relinquishes state power.

But I have a feeling that the various forces no longer rely entirely on the congrez to look after their interests [or be manipulable enough to allow their own interests to be ensured], and they are taking independent action to have a grip on Indian economy, as well as territorial presence - through overtly innocent religious shenanigans.

The pressure must be built up on religious formations that have affiliations and funding arrangements with external theological groupings and power centres - to openly come out in favour of nationalistic themes. Especially those that go against formal pronouncements and policy desires of power centres abroad in the "home" regions of those foreign theological powers. For a tactical reason, I guess we have to take up issues that might have real justifications/concerns that the extensions of foreign imperialism in theological form are using as a cover for their larger global poltical agenda and especially for the subcontinent.

If anyone is to be blamed for the fallouts - it will be the pressure and political tactic of the theologians, without whose involvement a much larger indigenous support for possible genuine concerns that the theologians may use now - would have been possible.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Amitabha Bhattashali's report for BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15789273 seems to repeat the perception sought to be established that
(1) Maoists are getting squeezed out of their traditional bases in central and centre-east
(2) Maoists are finding it difficult to match state coercive resources.

But the patterns of Maoist violence that uncannily coincides with parliamentary/mainstream political targets - are not explored. Even the elimination of Maoist leaders is seen as a random success. But there are possibly two crucial aspects being overlooked.

Koteshwar did two things : he tactically made an indirect/tacit alliance with local/regional forces, especially that of TMC [alliances can be at local level, without upper level leaders/org committees formally having to get involved formally. He also was probably instrumental in trying to mop up the remnants of the Assam/NE insurgenices. The veritable promptness with which Assam admin appears to have reacted takes an added significance in that in this case - the regional congrez satrap has been "loyal" to the centre. WB and Assam are different cases altogether from the "central" viewpoint.


So the possibility is that - only those among the so-called top Maoists will be "encountered" who do not play according to the current rules of the game. Maoist upper commands are likely to have been penetrated with one or more moles. But the moles act according to a political blueprint - and not according to any rashtryia blueprint. The proof will come in the future patterns of elimination.

Moreover: Assam should be enjoying uninterrupted prosperity under successive congrez rule! Why should there be underlying support for the Maoist cause?
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

Was going through some docs about the wartime activities of the interservices research group of UK and their recruitment or use of PIO's. Certain attitudinal aspects intrigued me. My proposition has always been that when the Brits left they left their intel networks in place on the subcontinent, and given the greater dependence of Pak on the Brits - it is likely that the Brit network has survived in pakiland to a much greater degree than in India [in the sense of having much deeper or dominant ties with the island compared to equal if not more pressures from indigenous politicans within India].

The buzzword of interservices might just be a coincidence, but symbolically does it indicate a deeper connection between ISI and UK than it appears overtly?

It is in Brit interests that the continental system weakens, and we do have the Eurozone crisis. It is in Brit interest that USA does not remain the sole player in mullahland from the Anglo-Saxon. Hence things happen around the Gulf and AfPak that is a kind of seesaw between USA and mullahs - the favoured "balance of power" mode of the imperialist Brits. In that case, the Brit egging on of the Americans in ME - takes a different angle altigether. Are we missing the elephant in the room?
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

An old post of mine, reposting here
RajeshA wrote:This Imran Khan thing could very well be another plan of the Brits to set up their own man/woman at the helm of things in Pakistan.

Imran Khan's "ex-wife" Jemima Khan is totally wired in into the British establishment. Imran Khan campaigned for Zac Goldsmith, Jemima's brother, the now Conservative MP from Richmond Park, where there are 5% Muslims, and in the tight race, Imran Khan's support did help him win the race.

Now she is making a documentary on Drone-Killings in Pakistan, and going about distributing cameras to people there. Does that hurt the Americans? May be! But so what? If anti-Americanism sells well in Pakistan, what is wrong for the Brits to indulge in it! If the Brits get their own man in Islamabad, Americans would have to go to the Brits again to help them "control" Af-Pak. It has always been the dream of Brits to control the happenings in the world through influence in Islamabad!

Jemima was also active in supporting Julian Assange of wikileaks! Lately they campaigned against the war in Afghanistan together.

Brits seem to be harvesting anti-Americanism in Pakistan to put their own man Imran Khan into the PM seat in Pakistan, and to control the temperature of the Indian Subcontinent from there.
From another post
RajeshA wrote:The British system put in place has indeed crumbled. That is why I commented lately that it could be a British plot to install Imran Khan as a PM in Pakistan and try to come back into the game in the region! Britain is a serpent which does work behind the scenes to make its participation in the events useful to others.
Another post of mine
RajeshA wrote:Pakistan inviting the Brits to mediate is something understandable. It was UK which whispered to USA the various strategic uses of Pakistan. Pakistan is now hoping that Britain can again convince USA that Pakistan is indispensable.

Of course, David Cameron may not be that convinced of it himself. Times have changed. Secondly Obama is himself not such a great fan of Britain, that he would take Britain's advice on Pakistan.

Then there is the whole Jemima Khan angle, which looks to me that the Brits may be trying to re-position themselves as the middleman themselves on the one hand installing Imran Khan either as 'Sadr-e-Mumlikat' (President) or as 'Wazir-e-Azam' (Prime Minister) in Pakistan and then partly steering Pakistan from Imran Khan's sasural in UK.

Of course, Pakistan also has a knife at UK's throat with several Jihadi assets living in UK at the expense of British taxpayers. These assets can anytime put UK on fire. So this request for UK can also be a threat to UK to either solve the problem with USA or otherwise ...
Brits sole claim on superpowerdom today is that they are the junior partner of USA, able to make some military firepower available to the Great Khan, able to support the Great Khan in the UNSC, but also able to help America in intelligence gathering and using their influence over foreign governments. So Britain would even screw America if it helps the Brits to play the middleman.

Considering how the financial fortunes of Great Britain are going down, it has already decided to introduce cuts to its military budget, which means British capacity to fight with the Americans would be reduced in the future. With Scotland going its own way, Great Britain is also going to break up. I am in favor of India snatching away Britain's UNSC seat from them in the aftermath of the break-up. Its ability to influence foreign governments would also decrease with its waning fortunes.

That of course leaves its fable for Islamists and its intelligence networks in the Indian Subcontinent with which it can still show its importance to the USA, but otherwise it is a fading power!
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

brihaspati garu,

Some things have changed on the Myanmar front, since we last talked about it!

I was reading a little, and it seems the Burmese are not so China-friendly after all. The thing is the Chinese would not really dare to do anything against the Myanmar junta, simply because the Chinese are hoping that Myanmar would provide them with an easier route to the Indian Ocean.

I think, we should not be too nervous of that aspect. That dependency of the Chinese on Myanmarese gives the Myanmarese a certain invulnerability to the Chinese, which is welcome.

However under the shield of this invulnerability, India and Myanmar can do many things together across the board. We can try to integrate Myanmar with India economically and politically too where possible and in due time.

At the moment the most important thing is to get a route to the Indian Ocean from India's Northeast. After having such a facility we can get a better deal for us from the Bangladeshis. Two routes would help us withstand any political pressures from both sides. We need Myanmar, so that Bangladesh does not arm-twist India the way Pakistan is doing to USA with the supply routes.

On the Western Front there seems to be not much that the GoI is willing to do! So they should start doing more on the Eastern Front along Myanmar and improve the infrastructure and quelling separatism, arms-smuggling and insurgencies.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Agnimitra »

^^^ What about global financial centers? I recall about 2 or 3 years ago Bloomberg put out statements warning that New York was losing out to other traditional centers like London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, as well as emerging centers. Reasons listed included the usual problems with litigious culture, etc., but also highlighted several post-9/11 tendencies such as extra-suspicious immigration policies, anti-Arab/Gulf sentiments, anti-China rhetoric, etc. The 7/7 attacks in London did not dent that city's financial capital status as much as New York's. Emerging financial centers like Dubai, Shanghai, etc. have been gaining in recent years also.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

RajeshA ji,
Myanmar is a divided society. At a societal level it suffers from the same religion induced paralysis that is shared with GV. This makes the radical tendencies go towards the left but sourced from the underlying religious values. If you look up the history of the Burmese communist movement and its splits - it has an uncanny parallel to India.

Another uncanny parallel is with India in having the British thumb in the pie. The Brits managed to convince the pseudo-congrez leadership in Myanmar during WWII to switch sides overnight when the Brits began to win the round. After that it was Brit enthusiasm in favour of Chiang Kai Shek against communist Chinese. Burma was used for a time as forward bastion for this during early cold war.

But the real nugget is perhaps the drugs trade, global narcotics related financial flow - which in the modern period - was centred in British imperial networks that stretched from Shanghai to London.

I guess once the communists won over mainland China, after some time the biz-minded Brits decided to switch over to the communist regimes to keep the flows intact. This eventually led to the Anglo-Saxon gently gently changing gear and steering towards Mao.

There is a lot of dust around the question of british capital playing around in Myanmar.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Klaus »

So is the Queendom looking to become lean and prepare to survive its strategic winter, yet remain the scriptwriter for Anglo-Saxon worldwide interests? Even if it means having a large % of its population go under the burkha, i.e use Islam as a tool to further A-S interests.

If this is the case, then the datapoints for Islamist spread in North America has meaning, even more so with the neo-Buddhist-Islamist networks.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by RajeshA »

brihaspati wrote:There is a lot of dust around the question of british capital playing around in Myanmar.
brihaspati garu,

do you think that British capital playing around in Myanmar would be having an effect on India making inroads into Myanmar, increasing trade and opening up a supply route to India's Northeast from Myanmarese coastline?
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Post by Agnimitra »

Klaus wrote:So is the Queendom looking to become lean and prepare to survive its strategic winter, yet remain the scriptwriter for Anglo-Saxon worldwide interests? Even if it means having a large % of its population go under the burkha, i.e use Islam as a tool to further A-S interests.

If this is the case, then the datapoints for Islamist spread in North America has meaning, even more so with the neo-Buddhist-Islamist networks.
Klaus, this is precisely the impression one gets. Talking to Gulenists in the US, the idea is that a Western elite will adopt and push Islam, and thus gloriously become its newest benefactors, just like the Turks of yore did. See, some people are blessed with it by being conquered, and some are privileged to lead it by conquering and then adopting to survive.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by devesh »

the happenings in Karnataka are very illuminating. the Reddy brothers and their proxy, Sriramulu, are forming a new party. there is already talk of INC+JD(S)+Sriramulu. for long, I thought the arrest of Reddy brothers was mainly a warning to YSJ. now I'm not so sure. Bellary has a significant Telugu population with ties to Andhra. BJP won this area previously. the controllers might be calculating that this could set an example for BJP in AP. perhaps, this is an attempt to cut BJP's scope in Karnataka and broader periphery.

there is also talk of "Greater Rayalaseema" with Bellary included, as a counter proposal to Telangana. the "Greater RS" is a clear indication that sometime in the future a possible "Telugu vs. Kannada" issue will be raised. this is very likely. this brings regional tensions and isolates BJP from making a broader pitch in Deccan. already, BJP is constrained by its support for T in Coastal areas. IMVHO, the new party of Reddy brothers will very likely start a "Telugus oppressed by Kannadas pitch" to carve out their own niche in Bellary.

meanwhile, the possibility of BJP's further entrenchment in Karnataka becomes tough b/c of the 3-front attack by INC, JDS, and Reddy brothers faction.

so, the whole drama is about:
1. hampering BJP's future hold in Karnataka
2. putting regional jackets on BJP to check its spread into AP in the future

meanwhile, public will see that the new party is basically an INC proxy. in fact, the arrest of Reddy brothers itself might have been blackmail to force them into this situation. either way, INC seems to have chosen the proxy war route in Karnataka and AP.

while this might all sound like INC is in perfect control, in reality, they are loosing control fast. at this rate, they are exhausting all of their possible fall back options. proxy wars are very useful weapons. what INC is doing is using this weapon in multiple situations across different states but concentrated in the same region. this means that the population of this region is under intense focus of this proxy war. they have watched as TRS, PRP (Praja Rajyam Party of actor Chiranjeevi), Jagan, and now Reddy brothers all have risen based on their "niche" sections of vote base. the populace is also seeing that all of these actors, ultimately do not hurt the INC but in fact, collude with it when it comes to profit sharing.

IMVHO, INC is truly showing its muscle in creating proxy weapons, but at the same time it is also slowly exhausting its fall back plans one by one. every future escape route available to INC is being used up....
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Post by brihaspati »

^^^True. I am not sure INC and its backing biz-religious interests realize, that after all that is being tried on AP, its AP where the first setbacks will start taking place. Naxalite+Christian undercurrents are both sustained by the humanist radicalism inherent within the "Hindu". Over utilization of these driving memes brings populations to a point where it only consolidates a trend back towards a search for roots. Sooner or later the congrez+Naxal+EJ feeding frenzy is going to exhaust the societal energy and emotions. The point might not be as far away as it may appear from official propaganda.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

RajeshA wrote:
brihaspati wrote:There is a lot of dust around the question of british capital playing around in Myanmar.
brihaspati garu,

do you think that British capital playing around in Myanmar would be having an effect on India making inroads into Myanmar, increasing trade and opening up a supply route to India's Northeast from Myanmarese coastline?
If the Brits are playing around they would keep out Indian interests as much as possible. If the drugs route is real - then Brits have an interest in dealing direct with communist China, -since that would be the best regime to ensure continued cultivation and supply.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by johneeG »

brihaspati wrote: If the Brits are playing around they would keep out Indian interests as much as possible. If the drugs route is real - then Brits have an interest in dealing direct with communist China, -since that would be the best regime to ensure continued cultivation and supply.
Are brits still the sole CEOs of drug biz, money laundering, ...etc? How come CIA, FBI, and others in massa didnt take over the game?

What is that these brits have with which they exert their hold on these things?
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Post by devesh »

there is significant CIA involvement in SEAsia drug biz from cold war times. both CIA and the Thai govt are known to cooperate over convergent interests. Myanmar used to facilitate this relationship by clearing space for easy movement of drugs from their lands into Thailand. it was a good profit sharing business apparently. although what exactly the CIA hoped to gain from it is still a mystery (at least to me). money could be a consideration but then, the drugs were exchanged for hard currency, usually Gold.

a surging Gold would have been bad for the drug biz until a couple of decades ago. I'm not sure what the exchange means is now. but if it is still gold, then the profits will have fallen substantially. Myanmar's recent aggressive foray into Gold mining is possibly a corrective measure taken to "beat down" gold, at least on a local level, even if it doesn't reflect in global prices.
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Post by brihaspati »

Myanmar is playing on with China - in the sense that at least its military junta [part of it - there are internal factional fights] is playing on. They are maintaining their own position by playing off the China-UK tangle. The whole "democracy" movement versus military is a matter of husband-wife fight [between China and Brits - who is the wife?]. The military corrupt top understands the game and is playing it just like the Pakis.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Abhi_G »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 126415.cms

Vintage congress style "secularism"
Chief minister Mamata Banerjee on Thursday laid the foundation stone of 'Haj Tower complex' and 'Aliah University Campus' at Rajarhat. She said the state would make efforts to upgrade Aliah university to international standards and urged the minority community to fully take advantage of the facilities offered there.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pranav »

johneeG wrote: Are brits still the sole CEOs of drug biz, money laundering, ...etc? How come CIA, FBI, and others in massa didnt take over the game?

What is that these brits have with which they exert their hold on these things?
National boundaries are not of much relevance to elite families - they operate easily through CIA or MI6 or Mossad.
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Post by brihaspati »

Pranav wrote:
johneeG wrote: Are brits still the sole CEOs of drug biz, money laundering, ...etc? How come CIA, FBI, and others in massa didnt take over the game?

What is that these brits have with which they exert their hold on these things?
National boundaries are not of much relevance to elite families - they operate easily through CIA or MI6 or Mossad.
Its how capital flows and from where. Brit origin wealth [well by origin I mean controlled or accumulated by people of Brit origin - wealth came mostly by sheer looting, subtle, political or direct], may not be sitting on the island. The off-shore processing centres - almost all of which are ex-colonies of Britain one way or the other, can ensure that the flow can largely stay out of domestic accountability.

The second aspect is the manipulation of governmental policy that intervenes in favour of actions in foreign regions. Those actions are often undertaken using and promoting regional criminal commercial activities - drugs and slave running, for example. The imperialist power ensures that the local criminal network is given two choices - either prosper and allowed to flourish under protection on condition that the network also helps in the overall regional strategic objectives, and the profits from their activities used to fuel further such activities [this way the entire budget stays out of domestic nation accountability procedures]. Or the imperialists turn oh-so-righteous in indignation and takes out the key figures who were trying to retain some independence in criminality. If you were running a "third-world" transnational criminal network, with your own theological-cultural ambitions perhaps, which one would you choose?
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by Pranav »

brihaspati wrote:If you were running a "third-world" transnational criminal network, with your own theological-cultural ambitions perhaps, which one would you choose?
That is the dilemma the Paks are in.
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Post by brihaspati »

The following article discusses the issue of transnational-criminal-terror-networks from the standard current official wind: however they are beginning to acknowledge the inseparability of the two:

METHODS NOT MOTIVES: IMPLICATIONS OF THE CONVERGENCE OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME AND TERRORISM LOUISE I. SHELLEY and JOHN T. PICARELLI
http://www.law.syr.edu/Pdfs/0methods_motives.pdf
The contacts that criminals establish with politicians and the apparatus of power may appear similar to the political motivations of terrorist groups, but their goals are different. On the one hand, criminals seek to achieve political influence to forestall and undermine criminal investigations, to influence the development of legislation, and to obtain lucrative public contracts. They undermine the state though their actions, but that is not their primary purpose. Their primary purpose is the pursuit of criminal profits and illicit wealth. On the other hand, terrorists use corruption and influence peddling to provide them the space to operate within many societies. This is true in host, transit, and the target states where terrorists execute their operations. Like organized criminals, they engage in criminal rackets to raise funds and may at times attack the legal system or pay-off political leaders to stifle investigations, but the ends behind these means remain political in nature.

This means that organized criminals and terrorists cannot always be easily separated; they slop into each other’s roles as necessary. For example, a network of Algerian citizens in Spain oversaw document and credit card fraud rings, the proceeds from which supported Algerian and Chechen terrorist groups (Reuters, 2001). Likewise, although organized criminals have been know to kill prosecutors, judges, and police, they are not terrorists (their motives are economic not political), but they assume the role of terrorists when they do such things. The international organized criminals aren’t seeking to bring down a state, rather than wish merely to retaliate for or immobilize the state’s activities against them. The economic-ideological duality – and seeming interchangeability – of the participants in these two kinds of criminal groups forces the need to probe the underlying motives of the criminals. And it forces the need to understand the difficulty in setting up a strict divide between terrorism and international organized crime.

[...]

Finally, as mentioned earlier, the US and its allies must apply its efforts to engender and develop a strong civil society in poverty-stricken regions that breed organized crime and corruption. Numerous authors have concluded that civil society, especially in the form of strong bonds of trust between government and society, are crucial to the eradication of transnational crime (Shelley, 1994). While developing countries have a number of development programs already in place, they should more explicitly address the root causes of organized crime and terrorism. Likewise, states must continue to focus on the issue of corruption, the most lethal weapon to trust and authority between government and society. Finally, such policies must consider the potential for unintended consequences, such as the resentment to US programs overseas potentially generating more violence. In the end, scholars and practitioners alike must think strategically about the root causes of the problem and end the practice of tactically responding to the symptoms and outbreaks they generate.

Note that apart from the standard vulgar-Marxist reco about "development" as cure-all, ignores

(1) terror funding sources in oil-rich Islamist countries
(2) remains completely silent about the crucial factor that brings together ideology and pure "criminality" - that is transnational secret/covert orgs sponsored by states.

But the latter part points out something worth noting : this is an indication of what I have dubbed the "west" required "fight against corruption" and activation of "civil-society" in target societies.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

http://www.thefridaytimes.com/beta2/tft ... 021&page=4
Extremism gains ground in Sindh: [October 21-27, 2011].
Charity organisations linked to banned jihadi outfits have been active in relief work after the recent floods in Sindh, exploiting the natural disaster to strengthen their organisation, Rana said. Some of these banned charity organisations had simply changed their names.

The civil society and nationalist parties also have serious concerns over the increasing construction of new seminaries. Only in district Khairpur, hometown of Sindh Chief Minister Qasim Ali Shah, 93 seminaries out of the total 117 are not registered with the government, said a local journalist. In Umerkot district, there are more than 400 madrassas.

A Hindu member of Sindh Assembly, Ram Singh Sodho, resigned from his seat and took refuge in India after he received threats from militant groups

The growing activities of banned organisations have and the madrassas linked to them have played a key role in hurting the religious harmony prevalent in the region, Sindh's civil society activists say. The forced conversion of Hindus to Islam had never been a widely acceptable practice in Sindh, but in the recent years, hundreds of Hindu girls have been forcibly converted or encouraged to marry Muslims, Dharejo said, adding that such practices, which have threatened the secular fabric of the society, have never been publicly condemned by a local or civil society organisation. Religious groups and institutions have actively extended moral and financial support to such practices.

A Hindu member of Sindh Assembly, Ram Singh Sodho, resigned from his seat and took refuge in India after he received threats from militant groups. Media reports suggest that incidents of kidnapping of Hindus for ransom have risen alarmingly during the last few years, forcing many families to abandon their homes and shift to India and other countries.
Can we keep track of such migrations? Any estimate/counts will be a great help.
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Re: Future Strategic Scenario for the Indian Subcontinent -I

Post by brihaspati »

I have a feeling that insurgency/uprisings or assassinations might be planned for BD and Pak. One fine morning we may suddenly hear that the BD PM has been attacked. A section of the army might even be readying itself to pose as the saviour of the nation. Extreme scenario perhaps, but there could be strongly entrenched elements within BD rashtra that may engineer this.
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