India-China News and Discussion

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 15:17

Suraj wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Now of course NaMo can laugh in their face for the favor! Nothing stopping him! But is that really how diplomacy works? Isn't there a saying about I scratch your back you scratch mines?!
Let's reverse the situation. India has in the past stated Tibet is an integral part of China etc. Big favour to the Chinese of course. A very diplomatic move. Naturally they should have scratched our back. However, from all I've seen so far, they've only tried to stab us in the back instead.

Tibet is for China their forward defense, where they have gobbled up a region almost as big as India, a buffer region between India and China, and started calling it their own. They have moved the whole conflict to a non-traditional non-Han region, and are hardly fighting on their home turf behind the Great Wall of China. Every little victory there they can enjoy and every little loss hardly makes much of a difference. Tibet is hardly their home turf!

They are not in occupation of Tibet because they were squeamish about it, but rather because they were very aggressive about it!

Any concession we make on Tibet is interpreted by them as a confirmation of their aggressiveness, and not as some favor. Favors are appreciated when one is in a defensive mode, when one is trying to protect something dear! Tibet is their realm of expansion and imperialism. It is not their heartland! Sure they want to consolidate their expansion, and any concessions from India they will gladly take. A bully however feels no gratitude if the other gives in to his demands!

It is a terribly wrong mentality if we think of our Tibetan guests in Dharamsala as some sort of lever we have over China. That would mean we have mentally accepted China's occupation of Tibet and consider it now their territory, where as we are left with some needles only to prick at them, and we call it Chanakian! We are in fact holding on to the last corner, last tree of a "no-man's" garden between us and our neighbor, and should we really consider it us doing a favor to them if we don't protest their taking over that garden?!!!

It is because we have let go of that garden that today the Chinese are sitting on land that is Constitutionally ours - "Aksai Chin" and now PoK!

These are not favors you give examples of, this is appeasement! And the Chinese bully would look upon them accordingly!

Suraj wrote:Why would NaMo be the fairplay award winner in comparison ? The guy's shown his mettle in a hostile political environment where his own party was unsure of his national viability, and his opponents saw him as a livewire to direct their motivated opposition at. He didn't get where he is without being shrewd and determined. We give him little credit by pointlessly portraying him as some naive bakra waiting to bend over for PRC in the future.
RajeshA wrote:I am just pointing out a 'pattern of diplomacy' the Chinese use! Why is that talking them up? And if I have not made any commentary on our behavior at all, where does the talking us down come in?
Their actions are typical of them. Ascribing all sorts of could/woulds to NaMo is just CTgiri. Worse, it implies he doesn't have the brains to see through their behavior, and that he'll just play along fairly...

Sorry, but all this talk of NaMo being screwed is simply your spin on this discussion. My commentary had nothing to do with his proclivity to be taken in by the Chinese.

NaMo went there, talked to the Chinese and got Indians freed from Chinese captivity! Nothing wrong with that! It was the right thing to do!

You're understanding the word "obligation" in a very black-and-white way! Even giving the Chinese freer access to himself is obliging them. Even giving them a patient hearing for their proposals is obliging them. Even looking at their investment proposals in Gujarat is obliging them. Even facilitating some Chinese business proposal which has been stuck up due to some doubts is obliging them. "Obliging" can be understood in many ways. It need not mean doing something anti-national. It can be something as simple as giving them preference over others, or easing away some bureaucratic obstacles for them. In one word, it is giving them more favorable attention in the future!

That is all I wanted to say! It was completely your twist on it to give it more sinister tones than the issue deserved!

member_20617 · Post by **member_20617** » 09 Dec 2011 15:40

I don’t care if Chinese government has a hidden long term strategy. I congratulate NaMo for getting these Gujaratis free (Please do not call them Gujjus! – I am a Gujarati myself). It should have been the Indian government but they don’t seem to care about their citizens. No wonder Gujarat feels that UPA government is discriminating against it.

There are many examples world over where governments have fought very hard to get its citizens released whether they were innocent or not. These cases could be about drug smuggling, rape, terrorist hijacking, corruption, spying, money laundering etc.

ALL Indian lives are valuable – there should be no ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 09 Dec 2011 15:41

It is a terribly wrong mentality if we think of our Tibetan guests in Dharamsala as some sort of lever we have over China. That would mean we have mentally accepted China's occupation of Tibet and consider it now their territory, where as we are left with some needles only to prick at them, and we call it Chanakian! We are in fact holding on to the last corner, last tree of a "no-man's" garden between us and our neighbor, and should we really consider it us doing a favor to them if we don't protest their taking over that garden?!!!

It is because we have let go of that garden that today the Chinese are sitting on land that is Constitutionally ours - "Aksai Chin" and now PoK!

These are not favors you give examples of, this is appeasement! And the Chinese bully would look upon them accordingly!

Well said and completely true. China by being aggressive on and inside what are our traditional boundaries has put Indian negotiators and GOI on the backfoot. Whereas we should have been engaging the Chinese or the eastern and northern fringes of the Tibetan plateau we are doing so on the southern and western ones. Bureacrats and politicians who think they are being Chanakian in dealing are so wrong if one see's the biggest lever Tibet, we have given away.

Personally i'm looking up India having a leader with testimonials that will make A) Kailash Mansarover disputed and B ) extend disputed territory to Tibet. UNs' 1960's resolutions on Tibetan plebiscite are pending.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 09 Dec 2011 15:43

This should be in the TIbet thread,but as it impinges upon China too,best discussed here.Is the Karmapa realy a PRC agent,or ishe the fall guy? What is really the truth?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/de ... rmapa-lama

Indian police charge Karmapa lama after seizing foreign cashExiled Tibetan spiritual leader is accused of criminal conspiracy as claims swirl of financial irregularities and spying for China.

Indian police have filed charges against the Karmapa, an exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, after allegedly seizing nearly £900,000 ($1.4m) from his monastery.

The charges were filed by police in a district court against 10 people including the Karmapa and relate to lesser amount seized from a car in January that police allege was destined for a land transaction.

"Today the charge sheet has been put in court," said police superintendent Sumedha Dwivedi, adding that police planned to file further charges related to seized foreign currency. The court will decide whether to proceed to trial.

The Karmapa is revered by Tibetan Buddhists as the 17th reincarnation of a 900-year-old spirit and is regarded by some as the likely successor to the Dalai Lama.

Police accuse the Karmapa of criminal conspiracy. A district court in the state of Himachal Pradesh where exiled Tibetans including the Dalai Lama are based will decide whether the charges have merit.

"As chairman of the trust he must have knowledge of everything that is going on, that is why he has been included in this," Dwivedi said.

The 26-year-old Karmapa has fought off suggestions by India's media that he is a Chinese spy since police found the cash, including some Chinese yuan.

His office denies wrongdoing and says the money comes from the thousands of often wealthy followers who have visited the Karmapa every year since he arrived in India.

The Karmapa is close to the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, and both men strongly deny he works for China, which has also rejected the accusation.

After the Dalai Lama, the Karmapa – whose is also known as Ogyen Thinley Dorje – is the most eminent lama to have fled Chinese rule of Tibet. He escaped across the Himalayas in 2000 but remains recognised by Beijing as the 17th incarnation of his spiritual lineage. He says he does not want a larger leadership role. There is also one other claimant to the title of 17th Karmapa.

The Karmapa's lawyer, Narender Pal Singh, said he had not yet received any formal notice or copy of the charge sheet.

The Karmapa's office has previously said he does not involve himself in the financial affairs of his religious order.

The Indian government was aware of the cash, his office has said, but officials had not issued the correct paperwork to exchange it for rupees.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 15:47

Shankaraa,

I agree with you completely!

I too said, that NaMo did the right thing. Also I used "Gujju" earlier in quotation marks to underline, that that is not how one should refer to Gujaratis normally!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 19:16

Published on Dec 10, 2011
By Greg Sheridan
India's rise as a superpower has China on edge: The Australian

Everyone has a certain idea of the likely shape of strategic competition in the years to come. The established superpower will have difficulty accommodating the rise of a new one. Everyone thinks this means the US will have difficulty accommodating a rising China. But in terms of stress, aggravation and in the worst case the risk of conflict, this is likelier to come from China having difficulty accommodating a rising India.

Sushupti · Post by **Sushupti** » 09 Dec 2011 19:41

Says officials from Indian embassy weren't allowed meet the jailed people until he raised the issue with Chinese authority.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 20:00

Sushupti wrote:Says officials from Indian embassy weren't allowed meet the jailed people until he raised the issue with Chinese authority.

So why did the Chinese relent and allow NaMo to meet the jailed people?

And why the hell weren't the Indian embassy people allowed to meet Indian citizens in custody?

This is what the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations: Consular Functions Article 5(i) says

(i) subject to the practices and procedures obtaining in the receiving State, representing or arranging appropriate representation for nationals of the sending State before the tribunals and other authorities of the receiving State, for the purpose of obtaining, in accordance with the laws and regulations of the receiving State, provisional measures for the preservation of the rights and interests of these nationals, where, because of absence or any other reason, such nationals are unable at the proper time to assume the defence of their rights and interests;

Usually countries are supposed to inform the Embassy if they take any national of that state into custody, and most definitely they are supposed to arrange that the embassy staff should be able to meet its nationals in prison! If the embassy staff were not allowed to meet those Indians in custody, it is in fact a most disgracing thing!

India too should start throwing Chinese citizens into our jails!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 20:45

Published on Dec 09, 2011
By Ho Horn-ru and Deborah Kuo
Cemetery in India for unknown ROC soldiers re-dedicated: Taiwan News

Ranchi, Jharkhand, India, Dec. 9 (CNA) A cemetery in northeastern India -- the burial place of some 600 Republic of China military personnel who died during World War II -- was re-dedicated Friday after completion of its renovation. Taiwan's top representative to India Weng Wen-chi and Deputy Defense Minister Hsiung Hsiang-tai jointly officiated at the re-dedication of the cemetery in Ramgarh, a two-hour drive from the suburb of Ranchi. More than 600 ROC officers and soldiers, who fought with the Allied troops in World War II near India and the northern Indochina Penninsula, are buried in the cemetery. However, there are only 200-odd tombs, 40 of them marked, since most of the soldiers buried there were unknown. The cemetery was built in 1942 and was renovated this year, according to Chen Hsueh-liang, an ROC expatriate in India who has been in charge of the cemetery since 2006. Taiwan's Defense Mininstry spent NT$7.58 million (US$252,666) for the renovation work, which began in July this year.

Sounds like Indians and Taiwanese get along just fine!

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 09 Dec 2011 21:12

IMHO i feel Rajesh Ji is not off the mark when he mentioned 'debt'. This is what he said:

It sets up a pressure point and then it forces you to negotiate with them and to enter into some compromise or you feel grateful and obliged.

In the You tube link above this is exactly NaMo's reaction: Main Aabhari hoon..meaning deeply indebted.

This should not take away any credit due to NaMo who deserves every bit of it, but that aspect does deserve a mention certainly here. It's certainly a way a Bully negotiates. Does something that makes one aghast and then be partly undoing that under some pressure, makes it as if it has done a favor.

Certainly a statement like 'We consider it a Positive development that China has released some prisoners, but we do wish that consular access was provided earlier and the rest of the sentences are reconsidered as violations may be a matter more of technicality' would have been more prudent than saying we are indebted. And IMHO that does prove Rajesh Jis point quite a bit.

bhavin · Post by **bhavin** » 09 Dec 2011 22:44

harbans wrote:IMHO i feel Rajesh Ji is not off the mark when he mentioned 'debt'. This is what he said:
It sets up a pressure point and then it forces you to negotiate with them and to enter into some compromise or you feel grateful and obliged.
In the You tube link above this is exactly NaMo's reaction: Main Aabhari hoon..meaning deeply indebted. ....
Certainly a statement like 'We consider it a Positive development that China has released some prisoners, but we do wish that consular access was provided earlier and the rest of the sentences are reconsidered as violations may be a matter more of technicality' would have been more prudent than saying we are indebted. And IMHO that does prove Rajesh Jis point quite a bit.

Harbansji - Main Aabhari Hoon means, I am Thankful (aabhar = dhanyawad) not I am deeply indebted (at least for a Gujarati person)... using a word like meherbani or equivalent would more likely show indebtedness. just my 2 c.

Rajeshji - There is no handle that Chinese have on NaMo because of this. So to assume that NaMo will have to scratch their back because of diplomacy misses the point that in diplomacy, the favors are generally equivalent. So if they have released 13 Indian citizens, they may, in future use that to get some of their own released from Indian jails (if they are arrested in the first place!!). Nobody is going to give them keys to the treasury or defense or what have you just because they released some prisoners.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 09 Dec 2011 22:54

bhavin wrote:Nobody is going to give them keys to the treasury or defense or what have you just because they released some prisoners.

And that is what I said earlier!

I agree NaMo isn't going to give the nuclear codes or anything! Nothing so dramatic! A favorable disposition towards the Chinese by the next PM of India is enough advantage and Chinese get that advantage by playing crooked and not losing anything.

BTW harbans ji is correct: अभारी does means 'obliged'.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 09 Dec 2011 23:11

In the NaMo China equation, it seems clear that a dialogue has been opened between China and an important region of India. I think Modi's decisions would depend on what is good for his state and by extension him, politically speaking. In the diplomatic exchange much depends on the perception of who has the upper hand.

In RajeshA's example the guy giving the seat could be a big menacing-looking guy, and instead of stepping on your foot let us say he accuses your brother of picking his pocket and picks a fight. Let us say you and your brother are having some difficulties and hard feelings prior to this.

One hopes that the big guy's courtesy to the mother (and the potential of doing business with him) won't be used by the hero as inward rationalization for not intervening forcefully and decisively on his brother's side.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 09 Dec 2011 23:15

यह शब्द (AABHARI) अभी हमारे डाटाबेस मे नही है । संभावित शब्द : abhari का मतलब निचे है

KIND<===> आभारी (pr. \\Abhari \\ )[Adjective]

Example:It is very kind of you to help me in my studies.

INDEBTED<===> आभारी (pr. \\Abhari \\ )[Adjective]

Example:Im deeply indebted to you for all your help.

http://dict.hinkhoj.com/words/meaning-o ... hindi.html

Personally i think NM is one of the more principled folks on the scene. I was only possibly one of the few guys who actually had a very vehement argument at the time he was in china with a colleague of mine over that trip. During that i repeatedly asked him who has represented those imprisoned Diamond traders, spoken about Chinese presence in POK from a principled stand in the Govt. Only NM. No one takes a stand on any principles in Govt these days .Everyone is busy trying to open a book on Chanakya or Kissinger or some obscure intellectual for a one up factor. Not give his goddam common sense some place in the sun. NM is different. I just hope he doesn't read anything by HK, Brzzzzki, Chanakya and kind. Just follow his own self. That matters more.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Dec 2011 00:11

RajeshA: Clearly we're talking past each other, so further debate is futile. I'll end with the following: all of what you claim as basic courteous behavior from NaMo, don't require anything like this Chinese gesture to obtain. 'Giving them preference over others', to quote you verbatim, is going well beyond anything he is obligated to do to them. It's worthwhile to consider if they have ever been characterized by such scruples, and if not, there's no reason to imply such magnanimity to someone on our end.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Dec 2011 00:18

The issue does not change my opinion of NaMo in the slightest. I think he is the brightest of the lot and deserves a chance for the top job. I also don't think he is compromised by this affair!

I was commenting about the Chinese and their tactics. If the difference/nuance is not comprehensible, then I give up!

BajKhedawal · Post by **BajKhedawal** » 10 Dec 2011 00:38

harbans wrote:
यह शब्द (AABHARI) अभी हमारे डाटाबेस मे नही है । संभावित शब्द : abhari का मतलब निचे है

KIND<===> आभारी (pr. \\Abhari \\ )[Adjective]

Example:It is very kind of you to help me in my studies.

INDEBTED<===> आभारी (pr. \\Abhari \\ )[Adjective]

Example:Im deeply indebted to you for all your help.
http://dict.hinkhoj.com/words/meaning-o ... hindi.html

Personally i think NM is one of the more principled folks on the scene. I was only possibly one of the few guys who actually had a very vehement argument at the time he was in china with a colleague of mine over that trip. During that i repeatedly asked him who has represented those imprisoned Diamond traders, spoken about Chinese presence in POK from a principled stand in the Govt. Only NM. No one takes a stand on any principles in Govt these days .Everyone is busy trying to open a book on Chanakya or Kissinger or some obscure intellectual for a one up factor. Not give his goddam common sense some place in the sun. NM is different. I just hope he doesn't read anything by HK, Brzzzzki, Chanakya and kind. Just follow his own self. That matters more.

When a Gujarati speaks Hindi, they have a preference for certain words which to them mean something subtlely different than a hardcore Hindi speaker.

As a native Gujarati the following Hindi word usage means:

Karajdar = Indebted
Aabhari = Thankful

I am sure other non-hindi speakers have such preferences for other hindi words as well.

As a off topic a Gujarati is least likely to be a karajdar in money or kind, it is something which we simply abhor.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 12 Dec 2011 06:17

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/11/opini ... l?src=recg
Opinion
China’s Spies Are Catching Up
By DAVID WISE
Published: December 10, 2011
Washington
"IN 1995, a middle-aged Chinese man walked into a C.I.A. station in Southeast Asia and offered up a trove of secret Chinese documents. Among them was a file containing the top-secret design of the American W-88 nuclear warhead that sits atop the missiles carried by Trident submarines.
He told a story to the C.I.A. that was so bizarre it might just be true. He said that he worked in China’s nuclear program and had access to the archive where classified documents were stored. He went there after hours one night, scooped up hundreds of documents and stuffed them into a duffel bag, which he then tossed out a second-story window to evade security guards. Unfortunately, the bag broke and the papers scattered.
Outside, he collected the files and stuffed them back into the torn bag. Although many of the documents were of interest for their intelligence content, it was the one about the W-88 that roiled American counterintelligence most because it contained highly classified details about a cutting-edge warhead design.
The United States had been producing small nuclear warheads for decades, and the Chinese were desperate to find out how to build miniaturized warheads themselves. China’s military was, and still is, playing catch-up to the United States.
China’s success in obtaining the secret design of the W-88 is the most dramatic example of a fact that United States counterintelligence agencies have been slow to recognize: just as China has become a global economic power, it has developed a world-class espionage service — one that rivals the C.I.A.
During the cold war, dozens of counterintelligence agents in the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. pursued Soviet and then Russian spies. The K.G.B. was seen as the enemy; China took a back seat. Only a handful of F.B.I. agents specialized in Chinese spy cases, and their work was not regarded as career-enhancing. Washington’s ongoing failure to make Chinese espionage a priority has allowed China to score a number of successes in its espionage efforts against the United States.
China’s foreign intelligence service and its military intelligence agency actively spy on the American defense industry, our nuclear weapons labs, Silicon Valley, our intelligence agencies and other sensitive targets.
In January, when Robert M. Gates, then the defense secretary, was visiting China, Beijing unveiled a stealth fighter jet, the J-20. The disclosure demonstrated that China had achieved a stealth capability, allowing it to conceal its planes, ships and missiles from radar — similar to the American stealth technology that China has been seeking to acquire by clandestine means for years......."
Gautam

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Dec 2011 13:31

China to open its first military base abroad in Indian Ocean

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 12 Dec 2011 14:03

shyamd wrote:China to open its first military base abroad in Indian Ocean

Some info about "poly-metallic" sulphides from this document: link. The image is huge though..

but only one has so far been located at the ridge system of the Indian Ocean. The paucity of known sulphide deposits at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the Central Indian Ridge is largely explained by the fact that exploration in these areas has been limited. Only some 5 percent of the 60,000 kilometres of oceanic ridges worldwide have been surveyed in any detail.

India should catch up on this somehow. Also, if Chinese can bid for ore deposits in the Indian Ocean, India can bid for the same anywhere too.

member_20617 · Post by **member_20617** » 13 Dec 2011 14:44

RajeshA wrote:Shankaraa,

I agree with you completely!

I too said, that NaMo did the right thing. Also I used "Gujju" earlier in quotation marks to underline, that that is not how one should refer to Gujaratis normally!

Rajeshji,

No worries!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Dec 2011 05:02

China's bubble bursts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... egins.html

China's epic hangover begins
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
China's credit bubble has finally popped. The property market is swinging wildly from boom to bust, the cautionary exhibit of a BRIC's dream that is at last coming down to earth with a thud.
Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933. Photo: Reuters
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor

14 Dec 2011
It is hard to obtain good data in China, but something is wrong when the country's Homelink property website can report that new home prices in Beijing fell 35pc in November from the month before. If this is remotely true, the calibrated soft-landing intended by Chinese authorities has gone badly wrong and risks spinning out of control.

The growth of the M2 money supply slumped to 12.7pc in November, the lowest in 10 years. New lending fell 5pc on a month-to-month basis. The central bank has begun to reverse its tightening policy as inflation subsides, cutting the reserve requirement for lenders for the first time since 2008 to ease liquidity strains.

The question is whether the People's Bank can do any better than the US Federal Reserve or Bank of Japan at deflating a credit bubble.

Chinese stocks are flashing warning signs. The Shanghai index has fallen 30pc since May. It is off 60pc from its peak in 2008, almost as much in real terms as Wall Street from 1929 to 1933.

"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.

China manufacturing hit by global slowdown
01 Dec 2011

"The BRICs are falling like bricks and the crises are home-blown, caused by their own boom-bust credit cycles. Industrial production is already falling in India, and Brazil will soon follow."

"There is so much spare capacity that they will start dumping goods, risking a deflation shock for the rest of the world. It no surpise that China has just imposed tariffs on imports of GM cars. I think it is highly likely that China will devalue the yuan next year, risking a trade war," he said.

China's $3.2 trillion foreign reserves have been falling for three months despite the trade surplus. Hot money is flowing out of the country. "One-way capital inflow or one-way bets on a yuan rise have become history. Our foreign reserves are basically falling every day," said Li Yang, a former central bank rate-setter.

The reserve loss acts as a form of monetary tightening, exactly the opposite of the effect during the boom. The reserves cannot be tapped to prop up China's internal banking system. To do so would mean repatriating the money – now in US Treasuries and European bonds – pushing up the yuan at the worst moment.

The economy is badly out of kilter. Consumption has fallen from 48pc to 36pc of GDP since the late 1990s. Investment has risen to 50pc of GDP. This is off the charts, even by the standards of Japan, Korea or Tawian during their catch-up spurts. Nothing like it has been seen before in modern times.

Fitch Ratings said China is hooked on credit, but deriving ever less punch from each dose. An extra dollar in loans increased GDP by $0.77 in 2007. It is $0.44 in 2011. "The reality is that China's economy today requires significantly more financing to achieve the same level of growth as in the past," said China analyst Charlene Chu.

Ms Chu warned that there had been a "massive build-up in leverage" and fears a "fundamental, structural erosion" in the banking system that differs from past downturns. "For the first time, a large number of Chinese banks are beginning to face cash pressures. The forthcoming wave of asset quality issues has the potential to become uglier than in previous episodes".

Investors had thought China was immune to a property crash because mortgage finance is just 19pc of GDP. Wealthy Chinese often buy two, three or more flats with cash to park money because they cannot invest overseas and bank deposit rates have been minus 3pc in real terms this year.

But with price to income levels reaching nosebleed levels of 18 in East coast cities, it is clear that appartments – often left empty – have themselves become a momentum trade.

Professor Patrick Chovanec from Beijing's Tsinghua School of Economics said China's property downturn began in earnest in August when construction firms reported that unsold inventories had reached $50bn. It has now turned into "a spiral of downward expectations".

A fire-sale is under way in coastal cities, with Shanghai developers slashing prices 25pc in November – much to the fury of earlier buyers, who expect refunds. This is spreading. Property sales have fallen 70pc in the inland city of Changsa. Prices have reportedly dropped 70pc in the "ghost city" of Ordos in Inner Mongolia. China Real Estate Index reports that prices dropped by just 0.3pc in the top 100 cities last month, but this looks like a lagging indicator. Meanwhile, the slowdown is creeping into core industries. Steel output has buckled.

Beijing was able to counter the global crunch in 2008-2009 by unleashing credit, acting as a shock absorber for the whole world. It is doubtful that Beijing can pull off this trick a second time.

"If investors go for growth at all costs again they are likely to find that it works even less than before and inflation returns quickly with a vengeance," said Diana Choyleva from Lombard Streeet Research.

The International Monetary Fund's Zhu Min says loans have doubled to almost 200pc of GDP over the last five years, including off-books lending.

This is roughly twice the intensity of credit growth in the five years preceeding Japan's Nikkei bubble in the late 1980s or the US housing bubble from 2002 to 2007. Each of these booms saw loan growth of near 50 percentage points of GDP.

The IMF said in November that lenders face a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities", warning if hit with multiple shocks, "the banking system could be severely impacted".

Mark Williams from Capital Economics said the great hope was that China would use is credit spree after 2008 to buy time, switching from chronic over-investment to consumer-led growth. "It hasn't work out as planned. The next few weeks are likely to reveal how little progress has been made. China may ride out the storm over the next few months, but the dangers of over-capacity and bad debt will only intensify".

In truth, China faces an epic deleveraging hangover, like the rest of us.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Dec 2011 16:21

No Threat from China: Man Mohan Singh

Dr. Singh, replying to a supplementary question in the Lok Sabha on the subject, said: “There are sometimes intrusions according to us. But the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) sometimes differs. Therefore, I think, some confusion is created. These matters are sorted out between the area commanders on both the sides.”

Why is our PM talking about Chinese perceptions in the Parliament in an apologetic manner ?

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 15 Dec 2011 17:22

Philip wrote:China's bubble bursts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chin ... egins.html

"Investors are massively underestimating the risk of a hard-landing in China, and indeed other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China)... a 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept' in my view," said Albert Edwards at Societe Generale.

A BLOODY RIDICULOUS INVESTMENT CONCEPT.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Dec 2011 18:47

Christopher, can you please explain the reason for all that mirth ? I don't get it, which is not uncommon for me.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 15 Dec 2011 18:52

I guess he meant that the acronym BRIC can also stand for 'Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept'!

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Dec 2011 18:56

OK, thanks.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 15 Dec 2011 21:44

SSridhar wrote:Christopher, can you please explain the reason for all that mirth ? I don't get it, which is not uncommon for me.

Rajesh ji thanks. You are right. The same acronym, i.e. BRIC, can also mean Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept.

I was never convinced that this BRIC would actually amount to anything. Either the grouping as conceived by western investment bankers or the talking shop as conceived by puffed up third world countries leaders. As a grouping it is just a talking shop.

As a concept created by financial psychopaths, there is no strong economic linkages or dependencies between any of these countries. It was grouping apples, oranges, mango and pineapple into one set.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Dec 2011 19:20

India-US-Japan talks not aimed at containing China
China must understand this. It must trust these three nations when they say so.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Dec 2011 11:06

Indian Envoy Terms Competition with China 'exaggerated'

Indian Ambassador to China S. Jaishankar on Friday called on both countries to be “strategically mature enough” and work together on issues in which they had common interests to “tackle the strong powers that dominate the current world order,” describing as exaggerated the often-invoked competition between “the dragon and the elephant.”

Boosting communication and exchanges was the “only solution” to addressing persisting political distrust, in particular that stemming from the long-running boundary dispute, he said in a wide-ranging interview here with the influential PLA Daily , the official newspaper of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

“According to my understanding, the so-called analogy of the ‘dragon' and the ‘elephant' is exaggerated,” said Mr. Jaishankar, who has been the envoy in Beijing since 2009. “Competition between ‘the dragon and the elephant' is what the strong powers like to say and that is what they would like to see. Ask yourself: Is it in our interests to play this game? I think it is not.”

He said the question facing both nations was “whether we can be strategically mature enough and help each other in the process of common development.”

Over the past decade, during which more than 60 per cent of all agreements between both nations had been signed, the neighbours had seen the benefits of working together on international fora like the United Nations Security Council, the World Trade Organisation and the U.N. climate change conference, he said.

“[Cooperation] should be … closer,” he said. “In the past, people would ridicule BRICS [the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa grouping], saying it was unreal and could not accomplish anything. But you can see how BRICS has developed in recent years.”

While Mr. Jaishankar was confident that trade would reach $100 billion by 2015, he was “worried” about India's large trade deficit with China, on track to surpass last year's record $20-billion figure. “At present, India buys a lot from China, but China buys very little from India. So, one of my current priorities is to ensure that both countries have a balanced trade relationship.”

Asked about the boundary dispute and the persisting trust deficit, he said: “There is distrust when people don't understand each other. Lack of mutual trust and understanding is the real challenge faced by our two countries. It has blurred our vision. If you have to give a very direct solution, then my solution is: ‘enhance exchanges in every field'.”

Exchanges, he said, were growing, with 5 lakh Indian tourists now visiting China every year. India was also keen on quickly putting in place a system to teach Mandarin in Indian schools, with plans in place for the Ministry of Education to establish the first-ever institution to train language teachers. He expected the institution to be launched next year.

“This is very significant because if young Indians can learn Chinese early on and understand China, then their interest [in] and understanding of China will be very different,” he said. “So, this is not about only teaching a language, but it will also sow the seeds of cultural understanding in their minds.”

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Dec 2011 11:08

Talks on with Taiwan to set up ATA Carnet like system

India is holding talks with Taiwan, through trade bodies, to establish a business set up on line with the international customs document ATA Carnet, said Satish Kumar Reddy, Director, International Customs Division, Ministry of Finance, here on Friday.

Speaking at a workshop on ‘ATA Carnet' organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), Mr. Reddy said the new scheme would facilitate import and export of goods temporarily without payment of normally applicable duties and taxes, which is expected to be introduced before the end of first quarter of the next year.

S. Vijayalakshmi, Senior Assistant Director, FICCI, said commercial samples, professional equipment and goods meant for fairs and exhibits could be imported or exported under Carnet. The system provided a guarantee to the Customs authorities worldwide that duties/taxes would be paid.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 18 Dec 2011 17:24

Agni-V shows India's Intention to become a major power: Official Chinese Media

Why, India should not have such an intention ? After all, India has one-sixth of humanity within its borders, is a major economic and military power and more than anything else a status-quo pacifist nation.

"Indian officials and scientists claimed that their Agni-V missile is the 'killer' for a certain country, which obviously shows the intention of seeking regional balance of power", an article in the state-run People's Daily titled 'Risks behind India's military build up' said on Sunday.

It added that India has strategic ambitions and hopes to play an important role in world affairs, "so it cannot tolerate these internal and external security environment constraints".

"It is the Indian goal to continue to strengthen the military and possess a military clout that matches its status as a major power", the write-up in the daily, which is the official organ of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), said.

"However, how many missiles is enough is a question for all governments in the missile era", it said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Dec 2011 14:56

The Proposed PLA Naval Base in Seychelles and India's Options - IDSA Comment by Mandip Singh

Excerpts

How does the PLAN presence in Seychelles affect India? Firstly, it would be able to directly confront the Indian Navy (IN), the largest in this region. Secondly, the PLAN’s permanent presence is a direct threat to India’s western seaboard and Indian SLOCs that lead to the Indian Peninsula. Thirdly, PLAN proximity to the Pakistan Navy (PN) lends credibility to a combined naval threat at sea. Hitherto, a combined Sino-Pak threat was limited largely to the land frontiers. Now the sea dimension will need to be factored in. Fourthly, like in the past, the PLAN will establish listening posts to actively monitor the IN in the region. And lastly, a PLAN presence, howsoever small, will divert large IN resources from the Western Fleet in the event of war. The threat would get exacerbated if the PLAN were to gain access to an airfield since that would provide a quantum jump to its maritime reconnaissance capability in the Indian Ocean.

What should India do? India needs to actively engage the island nations in the Western Indian Ocean - Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles and Madagsacar - diplomatically, economically and militarily to contain the Chinese footprint from spreading to these nations. Maldives, in particular, is of significance as it acts as a strategic forward outpost against any developments along India’s western seaboard. In the case of Seychelles in particular, India must neutralise any economic or commercial advantage that China offers to that country, thereby limiting its use for the Chinese as a `resupply` base. India may consider greater military assistance in the form of supply of naval equipment and training for the SPDF to fight piracy and poaching in its EEZ. In addition, the scope and deployment of the IN and its air arm must be considerably increased in the West Indian Ocean.

hulaku · Post by **hulaku** » 19 Dec 2011 15:25

SSridhar wrote:Agni-V shows India's Intention to become a major power: Official Chinese Media

The original quoted article from the CCP mouth piece

India felt pleased by America’s strategic focus shift toward the Asia-Pacific region and began to get close to America, but thinking this move will contain its imaginary enemy would be naive.

In the context of the eastward shift of global economic power and the changing Asian geopolitical pattern, India should cooperate with the neighboring countries instead of being hostile to them and should reduce its own “persecution mania" to play a role on the world stage in the future.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7680060.html

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Dec 2011 18:36

China reacts cautiously to first India-US-Japan trilateral meeting

China today reacted cautiously to the first-ever India-US-Japan meeting, hoping that the talks involving the three countries with "great influence" in the Asia-Pacific will be conducive to regional peace and stability.

Beijing has taken note of the relevant report on the trilateral talks that took place in Washington yesterday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told a media briefing here when asked about the meeting.

"US, Japan and India are countries with great influence in the Asia-Pacific region. We hope the trilateral meeting will be conducive to regional peace and stability," he said.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 21 Dec 2011 01:16

pranav:

I find your comments about 64 years late etc. puerile. The world is not static; neither is power ever-lasting. It ebbs and flows. All empires have fallen.

In 1980 did you think that the FSU would breakup or the Berlin Wall will come down? Or in 1998 that the Eurozone would be bankrupt or in 1999 that the US would be facing a serious financial crissi?

The issue of Tibet is one of those things. There is nothing which says that in our lifetime, India and China can not negotiate a successful demilitarization of Tibet and restore its to her historical role as buffer state.

And for all the questions about which nation is more connected, let us start with language and script, perhaps the most basic of all cultural connections.
If you just read the English transliteration would you think you were listening to a non-Devanagri scipt?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_alphabet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devanagari

We can go on about religion (Buddhism), relation to Hindu epics etc.

CPC's rule over Tibet is illegitimate; just like her claims to all of the S. China Sea.
There was no other power willing to challenge Mao so they got away with Tibet. They are not getting away so easily in the SCS.

So the next time you say that Tibet is a non-issue, think a bit more.

harbans:

I think every Chinese should know that India holds China responsible for TSP nukes. And if TSP nukes India, PRC is also getting it, no questions asked.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 21 Dec 2011 10:03

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld ... 8675.story
Disquiet returns to China-India relations
Driven by insensitivity and nationalism, conflicting messages from Chinese ministries and India's media sensationalism, Sino-Indian friction is on the rise after years of relative stability.
By Mark Magnier, Los Angeles Times
December 18, 2011
"Reporting from New Delhi—
The India-China relationship, relatively well managed for years by the two governments, is under growing pressure in the face of insensitivity and nationalism on both sides, India's hyperactive broadcast media and the growing autonomy of Chinese ministries, analysts say.
Irritants that have spurred distrust recently between the two Asian giants include a series of reported incursions along their disputed 2,500-mile border.
In one case, an Indian warship off Vietnam received an apparent Chinese naval radio transmission in July telling it to "leave Chinese waters." In another situation that upset India, an official Chinese brochure used at a November news conference in New Delhi announcing a $400-million investment by a Chinese state-owned heavy equipment manufacturer featured a map that included as part of China the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and sections of Kashmir claimed by India.
The two neighbors are among the world's fastest-growing economies, but Chinese planning, infrastructure and foreign-investment flows have seen it outpace India on the global business stage.
"A closer look at the incidents suggests the Indian press made more of them than were there," Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, strategic affairs editor with the Hindustan Times newspaper, said at the Common Agenda Round Table conference in Shanghai in early December. "But they've strongly contributed to greater suspicion by the Indian public."
Many people in India were annoyed by Beijing's policy a few years ago to issue Chinese visas separate from passports for Indians living in Kashmir. Divided Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan, and each side maintains its area of control. The visa policy, since reversed, offended many Indians, suggesting that Indian-controlled Kashmir was not an integral part of their country.
India, in something of a tit for tat, allowed the Dalai Lama in 2009 to travel to a monastery near the Chinese border. Beijing deeply distrusts the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader — who escaped from China in 1959 and now lives in northern India — blaming him for the recent self-immolations by protesting monks and other unrest in Tibet and other regions. India's not-so-subtle message: If you start questioning our Kashmir claims, we'll do the same with your Tibet claims......."
Gautam

member_20021 · Post by **member_20021** » 21 Dec 2011 11:25

VikramS wrote: I think every Chinese should know that India holds China responsible for TSP nukes. And if TSP nukes India, PRC is also getting it, no questions asked.

China knows. Just do it. The Chinese nation has been under nuclear threads from the USA and Soviet Unions for so many years, and it is just laughable to think that one more from your country would make much difference.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 21 Dec 2011 11:42

Jimi wrote:
VikramS wrote: I think every Chinese should know that India holds China responsible for TSP nukes. And if TSP nukes India, PRC is also getting it, no questions asked.
China knows. Just do it. The Chinese nation has been under nuclear threads from the USA and Soviet Unions for so many years, and it is just laughable to think that one more from your country would make much difference.

Jimi ji,

those are sane countries. Here in the Indian Subcontinent people are not sane. We are often trigger-happy! We sometimes tend to take it out on the other for the slightest humiliation, etc.

Besides Hindus have something that neither the Soviets or the Americans have. We can be reborn again. There is no Hell or Heaven $hit we need to worry about.

Just be assured, if your dog, the Paki, bites us, we are going to take down Shanghai for starters.

member_20021 · Post by **member_20021** » 21 Dec 2011 11:46

Sure, China has learnt all from your Forward policy. Like I said, be a doer, not just a talker.