India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 21 Dec 2011 14:13

shiv wrote:Is it Dec 20th yet?

No.20th Dec 2012 is a long way away.

Can't you see a calender ? Ask yr grand son, he will tell you the date today.

Kersi

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Dec 2011 19:31

Kersi D wrote:
shiv wrote:Is it Dec 20th yet?
No.20th Dec 2012 is a long way away.

Can't you see a calender ? Ask yr grand son, he will tell you the date today.

Kersi

Damn! If I could only reach my glasses I would read what you have written, but I need my walker to get to my glasses. I fondly remember those days when I was a vigorous young man when the MMRCA selection process was started. Ahh..

Is it Dec 20th yet?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Dec 2011 20:40

wait for YAD20 to come. mash all law, why are we so obsessed with dates?

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 21 Dec 2011 21:29

Dec 20, 2020 is far away.......

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Dec 2011 22:26

amdavadi wrote:Dec 20, 2020 is far away.......

Oh I get it now! the date is either 20-12-2012, or 12-20-2012

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 21 Dec 2011 22:28

sounds three dimensional - 20:20:20, and by that time we would have some advanced 3D AESA radar, with some advanced electro-optical interferometer techniques to scan, lock, and destroy. why waste money till then? lalloo, swamy & co. needs time to relax, even in hell.

this is slowly getting on our nerves.. otherwise, I don't expect shiv ji to keep asking for the date.

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 21 Dec 2011 23:06

shiv wrote: I fondly remember those days when I was a vigorous young man when the MMRCA selection process was started.

And Sir may I ask ? Where were you when IAF wanted a basic trainer ? Crying in your nappies ?!?!

And where will you be when IA buys a new artillery gun ????????

Sigh...... This is India take it or leave it.

K

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 21 Dec 2011 23:08

shiv wrote:
amdavadi wrote:Dec 20, 2020 is far away.......
Oh I get it now! the date is either 20-12-2012, or 12-20-2012

Oh what is 2 and 1 and 0 and %%## between good friends. Hic.. hic... hic...

K

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 21 Dec 2011 23:11

Kersi D wrote:
And where will you be when IA buys a new artillery gun ????????

K

Well I'm only in my 20s and I have still given up hope of seeing that in my lifetime.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 22 Dec 2011 02:05

No boxing day announcement

Decision on combat aircraft within fortnight
Ajay Shukla

The IAF has given a comparative evaluation and the ball is now in the MoD’s court.

Once the winning bid is announced, the MoD will convene a ‘Contract Negotiation Committee’ to negotiate a final price. MoD sources indicate that price quoted by both vendors is significantly higher than the Rs 42,000 crore the Union Cabinet cleared for this purchase.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Dec 2011 02:14

^^

. MoD sources indicate that price quoted by both vendors is significantly higher than the Rs 42,000 crore the Union Cabinet cleared for this purchase.

higher than $8b is fine.. but that can't be higher than $10b for 126. Now this price is back to basics, till the contract negotiating team announces the actual cost, etc.

ball is really with MoD, while the rest of the balls are crushed in anticipation.

Gurneesh · Post by **Gurneesh** » 22 Dec 2011 03:41

Broadsword Article on Japan's F35 selection mentions:

According to AFP, the F-35 bid was the most expensive of the three, with its price tag of $US113 million per aircraft.

This gives us an upper bound which is 113 * 126 = 14.24 Billion USD.

Since Eurofighter was cheaper (no idea by how much) and Rafale is believed to be cheaper (?) than Eurofighter, we can expect the deal to be in the 14 billion USD region (at max).

For the deal to be 10 billion, each craft would have to be 79.36 million.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Dec 2011 04:01

my guess : Rf(75-85M), Ef(80-90M).

VishalJ · Post by **VishalJ** » 22 Dec 2011 05:21

Checkout the Shockwave's Transonic Flow

More Katrina, EF2K, Malaysian Rambhas & MiGs etc from LIMA 2011 on Marina's Flickr photo page (if anybody's interested) > http://www.flickr.com/photos/lystseva/

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 22 Dec 2011 14:41

From Ajay Shukla's article mentioned above:

Once the winning bid is announced, the MoD will convene a ‘Contract Negotiation Committee to negotiate a final price

Once the winner is announced, how will one negotiate further? If this is the case and the winner refuses, then will we turn to the next manufacturer? Who will also know he has us by the jewels.

Something amiss here. I would feel that the winner would be announced only after full agreement on T&Cs and price. Which would then make the 31st December 2011 validity of the commercial bid superfluous.

my 2 euros, GBPs or whatever.

nelson · Post by **nelson** » 22 Dec 2011 19:06

^ as per defence procurement procedure that is the way it proceeds. both the lowest bidder L1 and the next lowest participate in the CNC along with technical reps of the companies. from our side the CFA ie govt and the user attend. the cost component of each item in the bid is negotiated and then the whole price.

some help on it, even though it(website) may not be organised well.
http://mod.nic.in/dpm/body2.htm

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Dec 2011 20:12

rajanb, you still coming from seller's market. think about the loss making face of Indian MMRCA. Even unkill felt real bad.

one of these two will have to succumb, and India is not asking anything below a price that is not sell-able.

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 23 Dec 2011 01:23

Something in the deal may actually signify a foregone conclusion, as to whether the IAF will pick the Rafale or the Eurofighter.

I think it was stipulated long ago that (approx?) 18 aircraft would be purchased in "fly away condition", and that these first aircraft must be provided by such-and-such a date.

I have a hunch that the Eurofighter build cycle is longer than it is for the Rafale, and that it may even mean that Eurofighter might not be able to meet this target date.

This would mean that the only truly qualified bidder was Rafale, and everyone knew it right from the start. The Americans still bid because they thought they could pull the right strings, the Swedes bid because they honestly thought their bird would appeal the most to the IAF, and the Russians went through the motions, basically out of habit. Eurofighter bid because to not bid would signify to the world that Eurofighter isn't cost competitive.

Can anyone refresh my memory of the precise terms of that tender? What was the order size for the "fly away condition" aircraft, and when was their delivery date? What are the build rates for the Rafale and Eurofighter?

BTW: One of the most significant advantages of the LCA is its superlative manufacturability. Believe me, this will factor into the IAF's decision; indeed, I think it's possible this factor alone has resulted in a foregone conclusion for the Rafale.

Good decision, IMO.

Just my two paise.

VinayG · Post by **VinayG** » 23 Dec 2011 02:23

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote: Can anyone refresh my memory of the precise terms of that tender? What are the build rates for the Rafale and Eurofighter? What was the order size for the "fly away condition" aircraft, and when was their delivery date?

At 211 pages long, the RFP document outlines India's requirements in areas including technology transfer, licenced manufacturing and through-life support arrangements. The Indian defence ministry has not released the delivery schedules

previous old articles for reference

India’s M-MRCA Fighter Competition

MRCA RFP

srai · Post by **srai** » 23 Dec 2011 04:04

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:Something in the deal may actually signify a foregone conclusion, as to whether the IAF will pick the Rafale or the Eurofighter.

I think it was stipulated long ago that (approx?) 18 aircraft would be purchased in "fly away condition", and that these first aircraft must be provided by such-and-such a date.

I have a hunch that the Eurofighter build cycle is longer than it is for the Rafale, and that it may even mean that Eurofighter might not be able to meet this target date.

...

I don't think that is correct. If you remember, EF has a full Tranche 2/3A production run happening and out of which Germany wants to cut its order by at least 40-60 aircrafts. This is similar to how UK squiggled out of its obligations by transferring 72 aircrafts to Saudis and still fulfilling its original order contract. Germany will to do the same if the MRCA tender is won by the EF.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 23 Dec 2011 05:18

I think they have to make a decision before the end of the year or ask for time extension of bids from vendors. SDRE leaders will deliver......

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Dec 2011 07:39

This thread has become so silent compared to when the two Eurocanards were shortlisted.. I can see the tension between various canard jingoes. However, none of those jingoes ever approached in appreciating/feared the opponent's aircraft. That showed a Rafale jingo never understood Typhoon features, and a Typhoon jingo had no clue about Rafale's advantages.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 23 Dec 2011 14:34

More than a month back they had opened the bids of Typhoon and Rafale.
How long further before the winner is chosen?

jai · Post by **jai** » 23 Dec 2011 16:13

Virendra wrote:More than a month back they had opened the bids of Typhoon and Rafale.
How long further before the winner is chosen?

My guess is around 15th Jan, could take longer who knows ? As much as the chiefs have been in a hurry to get the planes, mod certainly is not.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 23 Dec 2011 16:31

SaiK wrote:rajanb, you still coming from seller's market. think about the loss making face of Indian MMRCA. Even unkill felt real bad.

one of these two will have to succumb, and India is not asking anything below a price that is not sell-able.

Believe me Saik. As a seller, the last stage (and my market was a buyer's market) was so tense. I attribute all my grey hair to the "sudden death" stage. And you win some and you lose some. But if one reached the short list then if you lost, it could have meant my job and loss of face personally in the market.

I think 31st December is critical unless we aren't aware of an extension sought from and given by Dassault and EADS.

vic · Post by **vic** » 23 Dec 2011 20:09

I think that decision will come around first week of feb 2012

trushant · Post by **trushant** » 23 Dec 2011 20:48

Guys for the sake of better understanding of what would happen after L1 declaration ...posting the relevant clause from the DPP 2011

"51. In multi vendor cases, on opening of commercial offers, once L1 vendor is identified,
the contract should be concluded with him and normally there would be no need for any further
price negotiations. However, it is important that the reasonability of the prices being accepted
for award of contract should be established. In all cases, CNC should establish a benchmark and
reasonableness of price in an internal meeting before opening the commercial offer. Once the
commercial offers are opened and the price of the vendor is found to be within the benchmark
fixed in the internal meeting, there should be no need to carry out any further price negotiations.
The RFP in such multi vendor cases, should clearly lay down that no negotiations would be
carried with the L1 vendor once the reasonability of the price quoted by him is established"

Thus CNC must have already established a benchmark price for each billable unit (may be in EURO??). The clause above asks for "reasonability" based on the established benchmarks. It would be interesting to see whether the CNC has considered 1) The desperation of both the vendors to grab this order given the situation in Eurozone 2) Slide of INR vis a vis USD /Euro ...while setting the benchmark price. Reasons are simple... any sane negotiator would try to squeeze out the last drop from the vendor given todays situation in Eurozone. Also things would be more or less fine till the benchmark prices and quoted prices are in Euro...problems start after the conversion to INR. Now its upto the CNC.... how they would play their cards...as I admit it would be tricky for them to negotiate with the vendor who knows they are L1. And yes I dont think the decision would go beyond 31st Dec as otherwise they would be required to request for extension in bid validity.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Dec 2011 08:41

We should bench mark against LCA, pro-rated.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 24 Dec 2011 20:30

I wonder is there is any betting game is being run on this.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Dec 2011 20:37

3 critical points that makes decision making simple.

A:Which aircraft "won" on technical grounds? There must be a winner, by what margin ,wide or close,or could there even be a "draw"?

B:Which aircraft has been found to be the cheapest,unit cost wise and life-span cost wise too,again by what margin?

C:Which aircraft comes with the best offset offers?

If let's say bird X has won points A and B,it should win hands down.Offsets can always be tweaked later on. If bird X has won A and C it still looks like being the best deal.However,if bird Y has won B and C,it then becomes a toss-up.Here,political gamesmanship could be the tipping point.Which bird comes with the most political "weight" ? Offers of N-tech,advanced missile tech,etc. could be sweeteners.Remember,France has got far more N-testing data from its Pacific N-testing than its rivals,who depended more upon US data.

PS:NR,of course!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Dec 2011 23:35

The time to take decision means 1/2 sandwich and 1/2 soup is the current food for thought. Either the soup or the sandwich needs to be spiced up. Rf or Ef?

atma · Post by **atma** » 25 Dec 2011 01:44

This is taking sooo long, that by the time a decision is made, Unkill will throw another bone at us, delaying things further.

atma · Post by **atma** » 25 Dec 2011 01:50

In the tech world, if we took as long to choose between 2 contenders, a third would arise putting us at square one. The F 35, Shornet, Silent eagle etc with a sweetened deal could derail this hungaama, if we do not act fast. And judging from recent past, we know they will deliver in time if not before.

atma · Post by **atma** » 25 Dec 2011 02:00

Heck they even deliver free goods to Pukees before time. Hence I believe that MOD babus prefer Unkilled goods for Dragon specific defence, IMHO. Hence all this delay and hungaama.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 25 Dec 2011 03:19

Philip wrote:3 critical points that makes decision making simple.

A:Which aircraft "won" on technical grounds? There must be a winner, by what margin ,wide or close,or could there even be a "draw"?

B:Which aircraft has been found to be the cheapest,unit cost wise and life-span cost wise too,again by what margin?

C:Which aircraft comes with the best offset offers?

If let's say bird X has won points A and B,it should win hands down.Offsets can always be tweaked later on. If bird X has won A and C it still looks like being the best deal.However,if bird Y has won B and C,it then becomes a toss-up.Here,political gamesmanship could be the tipping point.Which bird comes with the most political "weight" ? Offers of N-tech,advanced missile tech,etc. could be sweeteners.Remember,France has got far more N-testing data from its Pacific N-testing than its rivals,who depended more upon US data.

PS:NR,of course!

Saar, is figuring these A, B and C is easy, simple or straigtforward? You just restated the problem

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Dec 2011 04:34

I threw up this "three-pointer" to elicit some BR-assessment on the same lines.We've had much spirited debate about the merits of the two Eurocanards and some official and semi-official info from other contests where the two are squaring off as well,Swiss contest for example,others where one or both were rejected in favour of a US bird,still would give us a ranking between the two.Is it possible with that info in the public domain to draw up a simple evaluation on the "three-pointer"?

Evaluating A and B are easier given the available info.Could we tabulate the recent contests where the two faced off,facing off with the latest news?
The toughest Q would be C,offsets.Here we would have to assess which tech of the two would benefit us best.

We have about 7-10 days to find "our winner" objectively.Popular sentiments bets kept for the celebrations later on!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 25 Dec 2011 07:21

The problem for desh is the best offset offer would not come with the best price.. so, per L1, they would settle for best bang for the buck between the two. Sometimes, political drivers can add more weights for certain factors over others.

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 25 Dec 2011 11:07

Rupee fall jacks up India's arms purchase bill
Ajay Shukla - Business Standard

Today, at about Rs 53 to the dollar, that $15 billion bid translates into Rs 79,500 crore. The two per cent cost of forex hedging is Rs 1,590 crore, taking the bill to Rs 81,090 crore, Rs 15,525 crore more than last October. The MoD is set to pay almost twice the Rs 42,000 crore that was budgeted for the MMRCA.

m mittal · Post by **m mittal** » 25 Dec 2011 12:59

I have definitely lost all respects for Mr Shukla. He day by day is turning into an American agent.

kuldipchager · Post by **kuldipchager** » 25 Dec 2011 13:35

Do we really needs MMRCA ?
If we can make LCA then we needs to re-design or upgrade Mig 27 to multyperpose f/b.
Bye the way why don't put Kevry engine in HF 24 frame.
Main problem we have is pro western lobby.
If China wants to attack they wuold have allready done it.
1971 they did give warning but nothing happened.