India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 2

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 27 Dec 2011 13:10

Just cross-checking with facts,the M-2000 upgrade for 50+ aircraft is $2.4 billion without the cost of wesponry (80cr. or 800cr?,can't figure this stat. out s numbers wrren't given.)The figure thus given for an M-200 upgrade is not $24m but $41m! Apparently even withi the IAF there were doubts as to the expense of upgrading the aircrft,in comparison wiht the coist of acquirng the extra 28MIG-29Ks at just under $1B.

The decision not to order more M-2000s was squshed by the MOD.In retrospect,the deal wss badly contracted,without even incrmental upgrdes as those planned for the MKIs nvisaged and contracted/planned for.One must remember however that this deal was completed even before the MIG-29s were acquired,meant to match the F-16s that Pak was getting,and the lack of vision of all concerned could be understood in the context of that era and availablity of funds,etc.Nevertheless,even with legacy programmes like the MIG-21,we've seen incremental upgrades steadily from early Fishbeds to MIG-21 Bis st. and onto the Bison upgrade.The M-2000 upgrade took off only after Sarko's visit in 2007,and actually concides with the entire MMRCA tender,passed before the MMRCA resultis announced.This timing leaves a lot of unnswered Qs and a bad taste in the mputh,as we could've gotten ourselves brand new Gripens for approx. the cost of an upgraded M-2000!

Was the M-2000 upgrade therefore France's "quota" that spoke of earlier? If so,I now understand the context of a private conversation in recent times.If I have correctly judged the context,then it's the Typhoon all the way!

chandanus · Post by **chandanus** » 27 Dec 2011 13:29

Better get S-300 or 400 .. license manufactured in country !!!

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 14:23

As for the Mirage 2000 upgrade price I read on last friday french weekly Air&Cosmos that it will be the most advanced mirage 2000 ever developped even more advanced than the UAE Mirage 2000-9.

1) India will have the ICMS mk4 EW suite even more advanced than the UAE and the greek and which was already regarded as very effective. See greek pilots comments below.

2) It will also have the RDY-3 which is improved radar compared to UAE and greek mirages.

3) Last but not least it will share the same MDPU (processor) than with the rafale and many common electronic subsystems. (a feature common to UAE mirage 2000-9)

So with common electronics and weaponery the case for the rafale is somewhat obvious as you can start economies of scale and amortize mirage 2000 upgrade costs only if you go with the rafale.

Article when the rafale was at the "F2" standard. They are all at the "F3" level now.

4 sorties occured in the morning and 3 in the evening of Tuesday in 2 vs 2 scenarios, in BVR. The greek aircrafts were B52+. On Wednesday 8 sorties with Rafale B in 2 waves (morning, evening), with the partecipation of 1 french pilot and 4 greek backseaters. This time it was 4 vs 4. The greek aircrafts were B52+, B50D, B30.
Something that appeared strange to the greek pilots, was that while according to the HAF policy the pilots were doing the last pre-takeoff check of their planes (Leak check), the French pilots were taking position on the runway without doing so.

The impressions of the greek pilots were variable, as is natural , and their observations quite interesting. The whole of the greek F16 pilots, found the cockpit particularly functional, although a bit small, as is used in all french aircrafts. Also, the best impressions left the glass cockpit advanced disposition. It is known that the high operational output of the Rafale is result of high performance, excellent behaviour and friendly MMI that adopts to the high workload in multirole missions. The existance of so many displays and the characteristical absense of analog instruments, was natural to make a big impression to the greek pilots, who apart the Falcon's MFDs, are used to analog instruments. Some in fact, told us that they would feel more comfortable, if some analog instruments have been kept as backups in cases of malfunction or failiure of the electric system. Of course it is certain that safety valves has been thought, while evolution indicates that full glass cockpit will dominate in the future, as will happen in the case of F35 too.

It is also natural to be impressed by the high situation awareness provided by the Rafale thanks to data fusion. The Rafale, as the greek pilots had the chance to see, can receive tracking data from RBE2, Spectra, OSF, IFF, MICA IR sensors and accompanying aircrafts, ground command and control facilities and AWACS, elaborate them and produce system tracking data (system tracks). These are superior to quality compared to the single data of the individual sensors. This data is then used for fire control and is shown in the central tactical display and can be transmitted to fellow aircrafts. So, at a glance at the tactical display, the pilots can see the position of targets that may be inside the radar cone or outside and even in the rear hemisphere, no matter if the radar is on or off!

Also, it was verified that OSF provides advantage in air combat. As the greek pilots observed, once the target is locked from the radar, its image is then displayed in the central display which facilitates very much the target identification even in great distances.A similar function is provided in the F16 by the Lantirn Pod in air to air mode, with the difference that the backseater can make a search independent of the radar. On the contrary on the Rafale, the OSF is primarily slaved on the radar.

The best of impressions left to the greek pilots the performace of the Rafale's self protection suite, confirming the french reputation in the sector since the time that HAF operated the ICMS2000 in the Mirage2000.

Small reprimands were made to some small but important details, like the fact of the abscense of a countdown timer in the HUD when a BVR missile is flying towards its target. The greek F16 pilots are used to such an indicator on the lower left of the HUD, indicating the "Time On Target" of the Amraam and the time remaining until the Amraam's autonomous seeker is activated. If the missile fails tracking, then the indication "Loose" appears over the locked target on the HUD and the pilot is aware that the shot has failed. Something like this wasn't found on the Rafale, leading to a difficulty in the interpretation of the BVR shots during the engagements. And this, because the French were regarding that after a certain range , a MICA shot was always successful. As a result, the arrival to safe conclusions, was problematic.

Beyond that, it was also commented positively the agility of the Rafale. Of course the greek pilots still think of the F16 as a particularly capable aircraft in dogfight.
In the air, the Rafale is very agile, but for the greek pilots the sense of flying was very different from that of the F16. It was commented as perfectly stable, with very good response in all speeds and manouvers. Very good impressions were also left by the automatic pilot as well as the ability of maintaining very low speed during approach, prior to landing.

... The Rafale certainly proved that it is a very capable aircraft in the hands of the excellently trainned french pilots who have battle experience

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 27 Dec 2011 14:33

shukla wrote:Govt to announce winner for 126-plus combat jets in 2012

Lolz
More delays

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 27 Dec 2011 14:44

Philip wrote:Which is why I listed out the "3-pointer".I should've also mentioned in order of importance.To be fair to the US (and other) birds KO'd by the MOD,the reason given was that they failed technically/technologically were inferior to the chosen two.Therefore,by this statement ,the prime factor in choosing a winner should be its performance and the best performing aircraft should be placed at the top.

By that it means that the aircraft that were KO'd were lacking some basic qualitative criteria that were drawn . Notably it was not commercial filtration in phase-1.
Otherwise when we know that Pakfa's/FGFA are coming ,no need purchase silver spoons when ordinary spoons can do the same job.
AFA best performing aircraft is concerned , both these aircraft are of almost equal capabilities in terms of 'our requirements'..

Nonetheless, the government is not bound to select the L-1 as the winner, even if it is much lower, as there is an over-riding clause in the tender. If in the national strategic calculus, the L-2 can be of strategic significance for India, then the CCS can go in for that aircraft.In diplomatic circles, the deal is being described as France (Rafale) vs Europe (Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy make up the consortium that makes the Eurofighter).

BS
Where was this national strategic calculus,when this whole process is almost delayed by a decade or so.
Its all about balance sheets,share prices and party high command

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 16:18

arthuro wrote:As for the Mirage 2000 upgrade price I read on last friday french weekly Air&Cosmos that it will be the most advanced mirage 2000 ever developped even more advanced than the UAE Mirage 2000-9.

1) India will have the ICMS mk4 EW suite even more advanced than the UAE and the greek and which was already regarded as very effective. See greek pilots comments below.

2) It will also have the RDY-3 which is improved radar compared to UAE and greek mirages.

3) Last but not least it will share the same MDPU (processor) than with the rafale and many common electronic subsystems. (a feature common to UAE mirage 2000-9)

Probably true. Trouble is the IAF's Mirages don't have an airframe life comparable to that of the UAE aircraft. By the time the first upgraded Mirages are operational the bulk of the fleet will be 30 years old (the proposed upgrade doesn't include an extension of airframe life). For the remaining service it would have been preferable to opt for a LUSH-type 'limited' upgrade with a new radar set and primary BVR missile, while retaining domestic equivalents for other avionic and electronic upgrades. The remainder of funds should ideally have been invested in the Tejas program.

That said, given that the Mirage-2000 wasn't domestically built like the Jaguar, MiG-27 or Su-30MKI, the head honchos would probably have been uncomfortable carrying out an unprecedented upgrade on a relatively foreign platform. The HSL upgrade of the INS Sindhukirti is an example of how terribly such a program can go wrong.

So with common electronics and weaponery the case for the rafale is somewhat obvious as you can start economies of scale and amortize mirage 2000 upgrade costs only if you go with the rafale.

Some commonality yes, but so far the munitions seem limited to MICA (which too has yet to be formally ordered). Also the production contract for the MRCA and upgrade contract for the Mirage 2000 were/are being negotiated independently, so its debatable how much bundling could be introduced to cut costs.

In addition, the Indian MoD has been butting heads with Dassault over the upgrade price for almost the last five years, and like I've said before, it might wary of a similar outcome to a Rafale MLU, especially while Eurofighter is offering to mitigate that risk with an invitation to join the EF consortium.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 16:48

Some precisions :

1) The upgrade plan does adress airframe fatigue issue. So Indian mirage will gain airframe potential after the upgrade. 20 to 25 years to be more precise. It not as visible as the MIG-29 of course but some specific parts of the airframe will be replaced if needed after the inspection of the level of fatigue in the factory. It will be on purpose not systematic but the goal of extending the airframe life for another twenty years remain.

2) As far as commonalities is concerned two remarks :

a) Micas and common electronics subsystem are already a significant incentive. Should you buy a few hundred Micas or thousands you will need a maintenance center and an appropriate training and facilities. So once you have done the costly initial investment doubling or tripling the quantity will be much cheaper than going with a new stock of missiles.

I took the mica example but the same is true for the rest of the equipment. Once you have the Know-how, facilities, training, experience to maintain upgraded indian Mirage 2000 you can use that for the rafale...So it makes the rafale easier to induct and less costly to go than with an aircrafts with share no comonalities with one of your frontline jetfighters.
If you add that the Typhoon India is offered is not even flying and properly funded...That's make the rafale a considerably safer option. Late alone the fact that it easier to deal with a well none supplier instead of a consortium.

b) There are still other weapons to be selected like the AASM which certainly stands a better chance than the isreali solution. That will make the case for the rafale more compelling.

All in all it would be surprising to invest such an amount of money on the mirage 2000 upgrade without opting for the rafale.

As for joining the Typhoon consortium this is pure PR speech. what are the indians going to manufacture when their is already four nations building it ? Half of a wing ? In fact that is an asset for Dassault as they can transfer much more workshare to india without creating an outcry because one of the nation is unhappy of losing jobs compared to the other country. It is just simpler to deal with one country.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 17:29

It seems clear that Dassault is an appreciated and reliable supplier for the IAF. Going with the rafale is certainly a lower risk approach than going with a consortium. At least they know what they are going into...Which is quite valuable as you don't necessarly want to make a 20 Billion dollars bet if you think that operationnaly you could do with both (but one of the two contender is underdeveloped).

Mirage 2000 upgrade from Indian Defense Watch :

Well a source close to idrw.org from Indian air force ,puts some thought into the whole upgrade dilemma which Indian air force had to go through ,it all begun at the start of the decade when Indian air force and French air force were having air exercise over Gwalior ,where IAF pitched their Mirage-2000H against French Mirage-2000-V .

Air exercise led to discovery of short fall of the BVR (Beyond visual range) limitation on the current fleet of Mirage 2000’s operated by the Indian air force against highly upgraded French Mirage 2000-V fleet .

Process and recommendation for advancing and upgrading Mirage-2000H fleet was taken. French price was too high and still is, Israel Aircraft Industries which had made illegal copies of Mirage-V jets known has “Kfir “ ,had proposed a Israeli avionics upgrade package ,which IAF found not much to their interest .

Source told idrw.org, that good serviceability of the aircraft and high mission availability of the Mirage-2000 in IAF fleet has lead to go with the French upgrade package, Mirage 2000 in last two decade in IAF fleet was the best weapons delivery aircraft and had an enviable safety record, and even Su-30MKI doesn’t have such a distinguished record.

Mirage-2000H was the best aircraft in the IAF Fleet, when Kargil War happened , even do IAF had a small fleet of Su-30K at that time , but it was not used in high Mountain warfare in Kargil ,since Su-30K were more of a air superiority fighter aircraft ,based on Su-27 airframe which lacked Ground attack capability ,until Su-30MKI joined IAF in 2001 .

Dassault Aviation which is the OEM of the Mirage-2000 was not able to reduce the cost, since the production line for the Mirage-2000 had already been closed, and all the upgrade packages for converting Mirage-2000 to Dash V standard, had all ready been carried out by French air force by the time negotiation for IAF fleet came out.

Other factors which might have worked in favour for the French aircraft manufacture. Dassault Aviation was superior after sales support and good supply chain of spares for the fleet in IAF, which when compared to Russian jets was far better. IAF also wanted to keep one of its most trusted fighter aircraft in good shape to meet future challenges ,which IAF might have to face in future conflicts

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 27 Dec 2011 18:42

France has been a decent supplier,so too have the Brits,Germns and Italians with aircraft,subs,tankers and warship systems,respectively.In the MMRCA context,the IAF will be interacting with BAe as lead manufacturer ,just as was done with the Saudi bid.There should be no problem if we choose the EF over Rafale purely based upon concerns of the supplier nation.Having already given the French their "quota" or the M-2000 upgrade,Russians the FGFA bonanza prize and MIG-29Ks for the IN,the Yanquis the transports,LRMPs and helo deals worth upto $20B,what is then left of the defence cake for the EU? The only major deal is the juiciest of them all,the MMRCA! I think that they must be salivating madly right now looking at this huge "bone" of a deal that looks like it is going to be thrown into their pot!

PS:Don't forget the Swedes.We may buy some EW/MMP aircraft from them too!

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 18:52

arthuro wrote:Some precision :

1) The upgrade plan does adress airframe fatigue issue. So Indian mirage will gain airframe potential after the upgrade. 20 to 25 years to be more precise. It not as visible as the MIG-29 of course but some specific parts of the airframe will be replaced if needed after the inspection of the level of fatigue in the factory. It will be on purpose not systematic but the goal of extending the airframe life for another twenty years remain.

What does 'address airframe fatigue' mean? I haven't seen any news report on the signed upgrade contract, that mentions refurbishment of the airframe. I believe it was an original goal but was abandoned during the negotiations to reduce the final bill. Given that a service life extension for the US Navy's Hornets was budgeted at $15 million/aircraft, I'd be delighted if the Mirage-2000's airframe is similarly being reworked within the current contract.

A section of the IAF top brass feels that the upgrade cost is too high as the officers say that buying a new fighter would work out cheaper.

The proposal is to upgrade all 51 aircraft to extend their operational life and update their capability. The ‘cardinal points’ of the proposal include: no airframe modifications, no changes to major aircraft systems, no modification to equipment bays, limited cockpit modifications, minimum retrofit line modification facilities/activities, and, most significantly, it does not cover the cost of supply of weapons.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20110526/main2.htm

For the same price the IAF could have had a Tejas with a brand new low RCS composite airframe offering a fresh service life of 6000hrs+ and comparable avionics.

2) As far as commonalities is concerned two remarks :

a) Micas and common electronics subsystem are already a significant incentive. Should you buy a few hundred Micas or thousands you will need a maintenance center and an appropriate training and facilities. So once you have done the costly initial investment doubling or tripling the quantity will be much cheaper than going with a new stock of missiles.

I took the mica example but the same is true for the rest of the equipment. Once you have the Know-how, facilities, training, experience to maintain upgraded indian Mirage 2000 you can use that for the rafale...So it makes the rafale easier to induct and less costly to go than with an aircrafts with share no comonalities with one of your frontline jetfighters.

The alternative was opting for the Derby that's already been ordered for the Sea Harrier and Tejas. And yes while the Rafale does have the option of sharing its MICA stocks with the Mirage-2000, the close-in missile ordered for the Eurofighter would presumably equip the IAF's Jaguars as well (ASRAAM looks likely), a fleet that's substantially larger than the Mirage-2000. Then there's the Litening (a staple payload for most CAS/Strike missions) which the EF will share it with the Su-30MKI, Tejas, Mirage-2000, MiG-27 and probably the MiG-29UPG as well.

If you add that the Typhoon India is offered is not even flying and properly funded...That's make the rafale a considerably safer option. Late alone the fact that it easier to deal with a well none supplier instead of a consortium.

Except for the integration of the Brimstone and Storm Shadow, everything else is sanctioned and funded including the AESA radar.

b) There are still other weapons to be selected like the AASM which certainly stands a better chance than the isreali solution. That will make the case for the rafale more compelling.

Debatable. With regard to the MRCA, I'd say that Raytheon has a clear edge with its portfolio of munitions, with its prices depressed by massive orders from the US military. The Mirage-2000 is satisfactorily employing the Litening and Paveway II/III combination and a major diversification appears unnecessary.

All in all it would be surprising to invest such an amount of money on the mirage 2000 upgrade without opting for the rafale.

Maybe. Then again, one could also say that it would be a surprise to see the MoD spend five years trying to get Dassault to reduce its asking price, and then place its next fighter on a course to the same destination.

I doubt if either of us could really tell what the MoD is thinking.

As for joining the Typhoon consortium this is pure PR speech. what are the indians going to manufacture when their is already four nations building it ? Half of a wing ? In fact that is an asset for Dassault as they can transfer much more workshare to india without creating an outcry because one of the nation is unhappy of losing jobs compared to the other country. It is just simpler to deal with one country.

Huh? The Indians are going to manufacture all of their aircraft, save the initial 18 (and a few SKD/CKDs). The conditions of production at HAL are being spelled out by the Indian MoD not the Dassault, Eurofighter, the French govt. or NETMA.

The reference to joining the consortium was in with regard to spares and upgrades. India will option of joining the UK and/or Germany in charting out its upgrade path as well as negotiating an upgrade deal with the OEMs. Also, its possible for HAL to be reverse integrated as a spares supplier for the EF.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 18:57

I have to disagree,

BAE may be the lead contractor for the typhoon but there is still four partner nations behind and they have the ultimate decision power. Each of these nations are facing economic difficulties and may not want to give away manufacturing activity after the sums invested for development etc...So India becoming a partner in the Typhoon program is not as easy as it could sound from a PR department. Don't forget that in the end it is not BAE or EADS who decide but the four countries behind the program. You better have to cross your finger that no one will start dragging its feet losing high skill jobs for another country.

Typhoon industrial organization is already quite "baroque" with not least than four assembly lines and a workshare driven by political consideration rather than any industrial logic. For instance Italy mabufacture a wing and spain the other one in two different plants. One has to wonder where India will fit in this already complicated organization if they chose the Typhoon.

Secondly this idea that India would give the french the mirage 2000 upgrade just to please them and keep them quiet is childish at best. That's not how deals of this magnitude are dealt and it would be foolish not to look at possible synergies between the mirage 2000 fleet and a possible rafale choice. A responsible decision maker has to look at the full picture.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 19:12

Vivs,

Tribune of india is not correct about airframe modification. If a particular piece of the airframe is in a such state of fatigue so that the 20-25 years operational life cannot be achieved it will be replaced. Each major components will be checked to detect possible cracks etc...The misunderstanding is that airframe upgrade will be done if needed and it is not an automatic upgrade. Bottomline is that the upgraded mirage 2000 must remain in service for another 20-25years

As for india chosing the upgraded mirage 2000 instead of another solution : you personnaly might not like this choice but if they did it is that they must be some very good reasons that you are dowplaying. India was not forced to go for this upgrade, they could have perfectly gone for the Tejas Mk2 or more MMRCA or an Israeli upgrade...So what it tells (as explained in the article) is that they truely value the mirage 2000 fleet greatly and Dassault is a trusted supplier. As a trusted and well known supplier Dassault can surely capitalize on its reputation to push for the MMRCA deal.

So instead of criticizing IAF choice (it is well known others are always wrong) it would be wiser to revise your judgment and try to look at the valuable reasons to go for a mirage 2000 upgraded fleet.

Besides French Air force chief of staff recently declared that indian air force is delighted with the mirage 2000 upgrade. Sure you will say he has a bias but in the other hand if the Indians were forced to sign this deal (which is absurd) and dragging their feets he would have not reported this.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 19:19

Viv,

As for being a full partner : if you want to become "full" then you need to have as much manufacturing rights as others. To be clearer if there is an export to Oman or whatever country India will have to manufacture a bit of each aircrafts just like the four original partner.

If you call "full partner" participating in future upgrade I call it a rip off ! There is nothing special to that and you can be sure that Dassault/Thales will propose it as well. It is amazing how PR talk can distort things...

And talk about a rip-off when the next major upgrade India could participate in will not be before 2030 for mid life upgrade...

Dassault is in a much better position to propose a partnership has you don't have other countries that are going to wine because they have to give away high skilled jobs to the indians...

On Typhoon development :

The AESA radar is far from being funded. The last financial envelop recently awarded to seles was a ridiculous 6million pounds. We are talking about this radar for years and there is not a single one used for test (ground or flying). The 2015 horizon time frame is more and more dubious.

AtG weapon integration ? Nothing new here and nothing financed apart LgBs. Only claims and you will not be able to give any significant milestone achieved in that regard.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 19:25

arthuro wrote:I have to disagree,

BAE may be the lead contractor for the typhoon but there is still four partner nations behind and they have the ultimate decision power. Each of these nations are facing economic difficulties and may not want to give away manufacturing activity after the sums invested for development etc...So India becoming a partner in the Typhoon program is not as easy as it could sound from a PR department. Don't forget that in the end it is not BAE or EADS who decide but the four countries behind the program. You better have to cross your finger that no one will start dragging its feet losing high skill jobs for another country.

Typhoon industrial organization is already quite "baroque" with not least than four assembly lines and a workshare driven by political consideration rather than any industrial logic. For instance Italy mabufacture a wing and spain the other one in two different plants. One has to wonder where India will fit in this already complicated organization if they chose the Typhoon.

I'm afraid you're mistaken about the nature of the MRCA competition. There is no negotiation to be done as far as the basic terms of the contract are concerned, aside from the financial aspect.

The 211 page Request For Proposal issued to the six firms in question, spelled out what was required of them in black and white. It is not a flexible document and no one was forced to participate. Also, the invitation to join the consortium is optional - India is under no obligation to do so.

If Eurofighter felt it could not abide by the MoD's terms and conditions it would have withdrawn, leaving the Super Hornet or Gripen shortlisted instead and set for service in the IAF after beating out the Rafale on price. As things stand, 18 aircraft are to be acquired off the shelf with a few kits to be supplied for assembly by HAL. The remainder will be build from the raw material stage by HAL i.e. no sourcing of wings from Italy or anything similar. Whatever few components do need to sourced (as they would even in the case of the Rafale) will probably be acquired through NETMA or Germany depending on the nature of EF's proposal.

Secondly this idea that India would give the french the mirage 2000 upgrade just to please them and keep them quiet is childish at best. That's not how deals of this magnitude are dealt and it would be foolish not to look at possible synergies between the mirage 2000 fleet and a possible rafale choice. A responsible decision maker has to look at the full picture.

While I'm ambiguous to that idea, I must point out that its not childish, not if you're familiar with the Indian judicial system. The MoD and IAF have invested nearly a decade in planning and effort for the contract to fructify. If for whatever reason a losing competitor decided to exercise its legal rights, it could delay the acquisition by several crucial years.

How significant that threat is remains debatable, but there is no doubt both the IAF and MoD are aware of that possibility. Its no coincidence that they've uncharacteristically gone out of their way to be polite and accommodating with the contenders who haven't been shortlisted.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 19:33

Viv,
What you miss is that BAE/EADS can negotiate and answer to the RFP but that European Governement from the partner nations can block some aspect of the contract if they felt they are losing too much compared to other partners.

That's the whole point : political uncertainty. It is much higher with the Typhoon over the whole period. You can sign an agreement with EADS/BAE or whatever but you are at the mercy of a governement change who will have a more conservative approach. Considering the very high unemployement rate in Spain and Italy, I doubt they are willing to give away too much to india. You know giving away high skill jobs is fine as long as it is your neighbour that has to bear the losses...

At least with France you have a well know and stable supplier and a single interlocutor to talk with.

you seem to live in dreamland as you think that if it is written in the contract then fine there will be no issues. That's simply not the reality and better avoid too much political uncertainty that could make your contract bogus.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 19:43

While I'm ambiguous to that idea, I must point out that its not childish, not if you're familiar with the Indian judicial system. The MoD and IAF have invested nearly a decade in planning and effort for the contract to fructify. If for whatever reason a losing competitor decided to exercise its legal rights, it could delay the acquisition by several crucial years.

How significant that threat is remains debatable, but there is no doubt both the IAF and MoD are aware of that possibility. Its no coincidence that they've uncharacteristically gone out of their way to be polite and accommodating with the contenders who haven't been shortlisted.

If you think you are going to be riped-off you don't sign it is as simple as that. India is an independent country and no one forced them to sign this upgrade. If they did they must have very good reason to go that way. Viewing this deal as a "courtesy deal" is plain stupid. And one can argue that with other deals (submarines) France was already pleased...So all this rethoric of signining billions of worth deal just to remain polite...And I don't think you can find an example of a procurement delayed by several years solely due to legal action of losing competitor. Your assertion is widely overstated.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 19:50

arthuro wrote:Vivs,

Tribune of india is not correct about airframe modification. If a particular piece of the airframe is in a such state of fatigue so that the 20-25 years operational life cannot be achieved it will be replaced. Each major components will be checked to detect possible cracks etc...The misunderstanding is that airframe upgrade will be done if needed and it is not an automatic upgrade. Bottomline is that the upgraded mirage 2000 must remain in service for another 20-25years

That's what's done during every overhaul on a limited piecemeal basis. Its not an alternative to a proper SLEP as is being proposed for the USAF's F-15s for example. And point is that the airframe's life is still limited by its design goals, especially vis-a-vis a new aircraft..

As for india chosing the upgraded mirage 2000 instead of another solution : you personnaly might not like this choice but if they did it is that they must be some very good reasons that you are dowplaying.

Yes but again one could also say that there were good reasons why this upgrade dragged on for so many years while the MiG-29 upgrade was signed quickly and is expected to conclude by 2014.

So what it tells (as explained in the article) is that they truely value the mirage 2000 fleet greatly and Dassault is a trusted supplier. As a trusted and well known supplier Dassault can surely capitalize on its reputation to push for the MMRCA deal.

BAE is a trusted supplier to the IAF as well. Also, one needs to keep in mind that the final call is being made by the MoD not the IAF. Both BAE and EADS have fairly strong links with HAL. And HAL being a MoD owned company has a big seat and proportional influence at the decision making table.

Besides French Air force chief of staff recently declared that indian air force is delighted with the mirage 2000 upgrade. Sure you will say he has a bias but in the other hand if the Indians were forced to sign this deal (which is absurd) and dragging their feets he would have not reported this.

'Delighted' is a subjective term. I'm sure the IAF is delighted with every new or upgraded aircraft that it receives, and the contentions terms in Mirage proposal were financial not technical. But there is no doubt that the Mirage upgrade has seen considerably more internal resistance in the organisation, than say ... the MiG-29, Jaguar or Su-30MKI upgrade proposals.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 20:03

mirage 2000 upgrade :

20 to 25 years of remaining operational life is well enough for a mid-life upgrade. IAF would not pay as much if it was only worths 10 or 15 years. Now you can argue about what do you consider as an airframe upgrade for ages bottomline is that upgraded mirage 2000 are still here for quite a long time.

If it is signed it means that they are happy with it. Nobody forced them to sign and there is no indication that IAF is angry with this deal quite the contrary. Besides this deal comes with a comprehensive technology transfer. A possibility that you puposedly ignore is that this deal could pave the way for the rafale due to synergies....Otherwise there would be no reason to go for this upgrade.

To sum up you believe that mirage 2000 upgrade is overpriced, only for a short period and does not mean anything in the case of the MMRCA competition and was awarded just to please France. One has then to wonder who are the incompetent who surrendered to french interest...This vision of things that you defend is simply not credible. There must be another explanation but as it would be positive to Dassault you can't admit it.

To finish : BAE has a presence india but does not enjoy Dassault's reputation, especially after the kargil war.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 20:07

arthuro wrote:Viv,

As for being a full partner : if you want to become "full" then you need to have as much manufacturing rights as others. To be clearer if there is an export to Oman or whatever country India will have to manufacture a bit of each aircrafts just like the four original partner.

Sure if there's a export to Oman, Malaysia or Vietnam, India would have a major workshare. But it didn't participate in producing aircraft for the RAF or Luftwaffe and it is going to build the bulk of its aircraft domestically.

If you call "full partner" participating in future upgrade I call it a rip off ! There is nothing special to that and you can be sure that Dassault/Thales will propose it as well. It is amazing how PR talk can distort things...

India isn't being charged extra to join the consortium, so there's no rip-off involved. Its merely icing on the cake. And I've listening eagerly for a similar proposal from Dassault, but haven't heard anything. It would appear that France would like to retain the Rafale as a sovereign national project (nothing wrong with it).

And talk about a rip-off when the next major upgrade India could participate in will not be before 2030 for mid life upgrade...

Maybe. The Mirage was ordered in 1984. Maybe not. The Super Sukhoi upgrade was sanctioned within 8 years of first delivery and 6 years of domestic production.

Dassault is in a much better position to propose a partnership has you don't have other countries that are going to wine because they have to give away high skilled jobs to the indians...

It would have been nicer still if a FEFA product was on offer instead of the Eurofighter and Rafale, but twas not to be. As things stand, it hasn't proposed a partnership regardless of its position. Rafale is set to remain purely French territory.

On Typhoon development :

The AESA radar is far from being funded. The last financial envelop recently awarded to seles was a ridiculous 6million pounds. We are talking about this radar for years and there is not a single one used for test (ground or flying). The 2015 horizon time frame is more and more dubious.

Well.. the Swedish AESA proposal was rejected, the Eurofighter's was sanctioned. Obviously the IAF was satisfied with EF's proposal. And I see no reason why Euroradar/Selex Galileo will not deliver an AESA by 2014-15.

AtG weapon integration ? Nothing new here and nothing financed apart LgBs. Only claims and you will not be able to give any significant milestone achieved in that regard.

Well PGMs employment is the bread and butter of most air to ground missions. And seeing as Raytheon is making its way to the front of the line - the Luftwaffe's intended replacement of the Tornado ECR with JDAM and HARM equipped EF's seems ideal to build on.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 20:18

Typhoon partnership :

You are not adressing the issue : which part of the Typhoon as a partner india would manufacture considering there is already four nations ? Half of a landing gear ? With the rafale you could end manufacturing both wings...

Secondly how will react European governments and future governments from the typhoon program to the loss of high skill jobs ? Having to deal with a consortium is more risky than dealing with a single country. What is promised one day can be cancelled latter...

Other point where you are mistaken : Joining a partnership does have a cost...And this is where there is a rip-off. As Typhoon partner are unable/unwilling to pay upgrades they are waiting for indians to pay a big bulk of them. For the rafale : no issue it is already funded. It is a totally transparent deal. The Typhoon does not have a single AESA right now even at early test stage and there is no clear plan to add AtG capability, just claims.

So this so called partnership for india is rather about sharing the costs rather than the benefits.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 20:19

arthuro wrote:Viv,
What you miss is that BAE/EADS can negotiate and answer to the RFP but that European Governement from the partner nations can block some aspect of the contract if they felt they are losing too much compared to other partners.

That's the whole point : political uncertainty. It is much higher with the Typhoon over the whole period. You can sign an agreement with EADS/BAE or whatever but you are at the mercy of a governement change who will have a more conservative approach.

They're past the stage where a political interjection can stall the process. If there were objections to it there were to be raised at the RFP stage, their not admissable after the govts. signed off on the proposal.

Considering the very high unemployement rate in Spain and Italy, I doubt they are willing to give away too much to india. You know giving away high skill jobs is fine as long as it is your neighbour that has to bear the losses...

Huh? There are no jobs being given away. Whatever cuts are there are thanks to their own government cutting budgets. The MRCA contract dictates where Indian money will be spent and does not influence the size of domestic European orders. If anything, it will generate jobs in Europe albeit not as many as a direct import would.

At least with France you have a well know and stable supplier and a single interlocutor to talk with.

you seem to live in dreamland as you think that if it is written in the contract then fine there will be no issues. That's simply not the reality and better avoid too much political uncertainty that could make your contract bogus.

You can bet there are penalty clauses written in. To put it simply, there is no scope for alteration in the project. The contract calls for the winning company to set up a production line in India and that's what will take place. Foreign governments have nothing to gain by blocking that proposal - they cannot compel India to switch to direct imports, the only result will be EF Gmbh being penalized by European courts and involved member states losing subcontracting jobs.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 20:26

arthuro wrote:If you think you are going to be riped-off you don't sign it is as simple as that. India is an independent country and no one forced them to sign this upgrade. If they did they must have very good reason to go that way. Viewing this deal as a "courtesy deal" is plain stupid. And one can argue that with other deals (submarines) France was already pleased...So all this rethoric of signining billions of worth deal just to remain polite...And I don't think you can find an example of a procurement delayed by several years solely due to legal action of losing competitor. Your assertion is widely overstated.

Heh heh. You can find a heap of deals including artillery, missiles, small arms that have been stuck in limbo because of allegations of corruption, or allegations of proper procedure not being adhered to. And no one is saying its a ripoff, just that its possible that when the pros and cons were 'stacked up', that factor might have tipped the decision in its favour.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 20:28

They're past the stage where a political interjection can stall the process. If there were objections to it there were to be raised at the RFP stage, their not admissable after the govts. signed off on the proposal.

Not at all. When you are to decide you are looking more than once at all the possible issues, especially at contract final stage. That's just common sense and you have to reassess everything in the light of current situation (of course not in a such detailed way than before)

Another example : Typhoon AESA is claimed to enter in service in 2015 and for that reasons it made the cut with the rafale. One would have expected that the development phase would be quicken at least to gain credibility...Same for the AtG weaponnery...But nothing ! Absolutely nothing...Not a single AESA being tested right now and not a single flight test with new stand off AtG weapons. To be clear : They are waiting an indian choice so they can pay for everything.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 20:37

Heh heh. You can find a heap of deals including artillery, missiles, small arms that have been stuck in limbo because of allegations of corruption, or allegations of proper procedure not being adhered to. And no one is saying its a ripoff, just that its possible that when the pros and cons were 'stacked up', that factor might have tipped the decision in its favour.

You are mixing up everything...I was not talking of corruption at all. You said that if Dassault did not get the mirage 2000 upgrade deal then Dassault will be very unhappy if they also lose the MMRCA deal...And as a consequence Poor Dassault will mourn to his mother and to whatever Indian institution and as a consquence it will delay the MMRCA deal for several years just to please poor little Dassault.... So the only justification for the billion worth mirage 2000 upgrade deal according to you is to please dassault so he is not too sad of losing the MMRCA deal. Strange way of doing bussiness and taking care of Indian armed forces credibility isn't it ? I doubt that arm manufacturers are so sensitive...

This vision of thing is just plain r.i.d.i.c.u.l.o.u.s and does not talk well about your intelectual honesty in this debate.

Besides I have strong doubts that you actually have so many concrete references of a supplier blocking a deal because of alleged corruption as you claim even if it was beside the point anyway.

You can bet there are penalty clauses written in. To put it simply, there is no scope for alteration in the project. The contract calls for the winning company to set up a production line in India and that's what will take place. Foreign governments have nothing to gain by blocking that proposal - they cannot compel India to switch to direct imports, the only result will be EF Gmbh being penalized by European courts and involved member states losing subcontracting jobs.

You are again living is dreamland. If a sovereign country unilaterally decides not to respect the contract what are you going to do? Wage a war? You are overconfident about politics honesty and changes of nation priorities. That’s why the case of dealing with a single country is often brought. It is easier and safer, especially with france who provides India with military hardware since the fifties.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 27 Dec 2011 20:43

Govt to announce winner for 126-plus combat jets in 2012

dont know whether one should

or

looking at the time taken to purchase a single item. Why didn't they show similar delay w.r.t PAKFA? What is this Chidambara Rahasyam?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 27 Dec 2011 20:49

Folks. When is early 2012? Jan? Feb? Mar?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 21:03

arthuro wrote:mirage 2000 upgrade :

20 to 25 years of remaining operational life is well enough for a mid-life upgrade. IAF would not pay as much if it was only worths 10 or 15 years. Now you can argue about what do you consider as an airframe upgrade for ages bottomline is that upgraded mirage 2000 are still here for quite a long time.

Well as far as I know, the lifetime is concerned I doubt if you can safely flog an aircraft past 40 years of service without a deep SLEP - France and Greece are retiring their older Mirage-2000Cs and Taiwan is even retiring even its relatively newer Mirages. The way I see it, the Mirage 2000 will suffice for the near future, but will start being retired around 2025, with the second batch of newer aircraft sticking it out till 2030.

If it is signed it means that they are happy with it. Nobody forced them to sign and there is no indication that IAF is angry with this deal quite the contrary. Besides this deal comes with a comprehensive technology transfer. A possibility that you puposedly ignore is that this deal could pave the way for the rafale due to synergies....Otherwise there would be no reason to go for this upgrade.

That they've signed means they are satisfied. That they are satisfied doesn't mean they're delighted and eager to repeat the experience.

I'm not saying there aren't any synergies - just that they're overstated in light of the fact that the munitions are being acquired independently. Its open to question how much of the avionics are common, what proportion of those require regular replacement and/or expensive maintenance and to what degree that cost will be reduced because of a commonalities. How much for example do you think the IAF will save in maintenance costs from having similar mission computers for the Rafale and the 50 Mirages in service?

To sum up you believe that mirage 2000 upgrade is overpriced, only for a short period and does not mean anything in the case of the MMRCA competition and was awarded just to please France. One has then to wonder who are the incompetent who surrendered to french interest...This vision of things that you defend is simply not credible. There must be another explanation but as it would be positive to Dassault you can't admit it.

Yes I think the Mirage 2000 is overpriced but not terribly so. Had the MoD/IAF been in a more risk taking mode, they'd have taken a more serious look at the Mirages the UAE and Kuwait had on offer as well as the Tejas Mk2. As things stand, the Mirage 2000 will suffice for near future especially for service on the western front.

To finish : BAE has a presence india but does not enjoy Dassault's reputation, especially after the kargil war.

Err.. HAL has been building BAE aircraft for decades including the IAF's prized 'Sabre Slayer' Gnat. Its now building Hawk AJTs and is hopes to become a major subcontractor for BAE in turn. The IAF's issues have been with its Russian suppliers not BAE. The Jaguar is still valued as a potent part of its inventory and is expected to remain in service just as long as the Mirage 2000.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 21:06

shiv wrote:Folks. When is early 2012? Jan? Feb? Mar?

I believe they're hoping to sign it before the end of the financial year - March 2012. The announcement therefore should be as soon as possible. First week of Jan hopefully.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 21:14

Mirage upgrade : like it or not the plan is to increase the airframe life for another 20-25 years. Just think a second : last upgraded indian mirage will role out of the factory latter this decade and according to you about five year latter it will be retired ?

just a quick google search and you will see that it is indeed the goal :

Upgrade Requirement : Strip down of the entire airframe to extend its life by another 20 years, and to re-wire and re-equip the aircraft with new avionics, mission computers, glass cockpits, helmet-mounted displays, electronic warfare suites to support a contemporary weapon suit.

http://idp.justthe80.com/air-force-proj ... 00-upgrade

About BAE I stand by my point : Dassault is often praised for its good after sale support and because mirage 2000 proved to be a reliable aircraft that had a determining role in the Kargil war. I am not saying BAE has poor relationship just that his "aura" and reputation is not as great as dassault.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 21:20

arthuro wrote:Typhoon partnership :

You are not adressing the issue : which part of the Typhoon as a partner india would manufacture considering there is already four nations ? Half of a landing gear ? With the rafale you could end manufacturing both wings...

As far as Indian aircraft go - the complete aircraft. With regard to export orders - depends on what India can negotiate with Eurofighter.

With the Rafale, India has been offered nothing as far as third party contracts go.

Secondly how will react European governments and future governments from the typhoon program to the loss of high skill jobs ? Having to deal with a consortium is more risky than dealing with a single country. What is promised one day can be cancelled latter...

What loss of high skilled jobs? They were hoping for $12 billion worth of jobs (in a manner of speaking), they might end up getting $3 billion worth. With the alternative being no orders or a cancelled order - I don't see the downside for European governments.

Other point where you are mistaken : Joining a partnership does have a cost...And this is where there is a rip-off. As Typhoon partner are unable/unwilling to pay upgrades they are waiting for indians to pay a big bulk of them. For the rafale : no issue it is already funded. It is a totally transparent deal. The Typhoon does not have a single AESA right now even at early test stage and there is no clear plan to add AtG capability, just claims.

So this so called partnership for india is rather about sharing the costs rather than the benefits.

What upgrades are you talking about? Complete integration of the Paveway IV and Litening III will conclude in 2013 with the DASS being upgraded as well. The Luftwaffe will be integrating the JDAM and HARM with the timeline depending on the retirement of the Tornado ECR. The only real thing that the IAF/HAL can choose to be involved in along with RAF/BAE, is integration of CFTs.

As far as the AESA goes, I agree with the IAF - there's still a while to go, full scale development started last year and the delivery schedule is viable. You dispute that assessment - I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree in the absence of detailed information.

arthuro wrote:Not at all. When you are to decide you are looking more than once at all the possible issues, especially at contract final stage. That's just common sense and you have to reassess everything in the light of current situation (of course not in a such detailed way than before)

How does any of that change the details of the contract? The Indian MoD requires a foreign contractor to deliver 18 aircraft and set up a domestic production line. Why would the EF members have an objection to the EF participating in that competition?

Another example : Typhoon AESA is claimed to enter in service in 2015 and for that reasons it made the cut with the rafale. One would have expected that the development phase would be quicken at least to gain credibility...Same for the AtG weaponnery...But nothing ! Absolutely nothing...Not a single AESA being tested right now and not a single flight test with new stand off AtG weapons. To be clear : They are waiting an indian choice so they can pay for everything.

That's interesting given that they've already submitted their financial bid to the MoD, which whether greater or lower is believed to be quite competitive vis-a-vis the Rafale's offer. India's isn't paying anything extra.

As far as air to ground munitions goes - the EF/Rafale will have to integrate whichever missile wins the IAF's long range stand off weapon competition (for its entire fleet) even if that's the JSOW, JASSM or Taurus. Same goes for the munitions package that's selected.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 21:28

As far as Indian aircraft go - the complete aircraft. With regard to export orders - depends on what India can negotiate with Eurofighter.
With the Rafale, India has been offered nothing as far as third party contracts go.

As for india the requirement is the same for both aircraft so that is not an issue. The issue is when Typhoon Gmbh talks about "full partnership" when there is almost no room left for a fifth partner.

As for the rafale you assuming too much. Just because they don't communicate does not mean they will propose nothing. If we took the brazilian example it was the same story but with the gripen instead of the Typhoon. Everyone thought they had the most agressive commercial offer in terms of indstrial partnership...Till we actually knew what was Dassault's offer : They offered the manufacturing of both wings for the whole world including france...And only for a 36 airframe order (initial). So I don't doubt a second that Dassault will do the necessary to Beat Typhoon Gmbh. In fact it is quite easy as there is much more thing to share with the rafale than with the typhoon and its four partners.

What loss of high skilled jobs? They were hoping for $12 billion worth of jobs (in a manner of speaking), they might end up getting $3 billion worth. With the alternative being no orders or a cancelled order - I don't see the downside for European governments.

Because we are talking of different types of job : engineers and high skill employees manufacturing the aircraft. The latter will have to be outsources in India if india will actually become a full partner. And it also depends on who bears the biggest share of the loss which risk to create tensions between historic partner of the Typhoon consortium.

That's interesting given that they've already submitted their financial bid to the MoD, which whether greater or lower is believed to be quite competitive vis-a-vis the Rafale's offer. India's isn't paying anything extra.

Typhoon Gmbh is also said to have made monstruous sacrifices to remain competitive and not being eliminated immediately.
India will have to look the sustainability and the credibility of the Typhhon offer. These costs can be partly offloaded in the running costs. Even as a Typhoon suporter I would feel quite anxious about Typhoon slow development issue and I am sure they are even if they can't admit it.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 21:33

arthuro wrote:
As far as Indian aircraft go - the complete aircraft. With regard to export orders - depends on what India can negotiate with Eurofighter.
With the Rafale, India has been offered nothing as far as third party contracts go.
As for india the requirement is the same for both aircraft so that is not an issue. The issue is when Typhoon Gmbh talks about "full partnership" when there is almost no room left for a fifth partner.

Call it a partial partnership if you will. Its still more that what Dassault is offering.

As for the rafale you assuming too much. Just because they don't communicate does not mean they will propose nothing. If we took the brazilian example it was the same story but with the gripen instead of the Typhoon. Everyone thought they had the most agressive commercial offer in terms of indstrial partnership...Till we actually knew what was Dassault's offer : They offered the manufacturing of both wings for the whole world including france...And only for a 36 airframe order (initial). So I don't doubt a second that Dassault will do the necessary to Beat Typhoon Gmbh. In fact it is quite easy as there is much more thing to share with the rafale than with the typhoon and its four partners.

Well ... allow me to amend my assertion then - based upon all information available so far, the Eurofighter has an edge due to its superior industrial and offsets offer.

If indeed Dassault has offered a smashing deal but for reasons of their own kept it top secret - kudos to them.

arthuro wrote:Because we are talking of different types of job : engineers and high skill employees manufacturing the aircraft. The latter will have to be outsources in India if india will actually become a full partner. And it also depends on who bears the biggest share of the loss which risk to create tensions between historic partner of the Typhoon consortium.

Err.. here I thought engineers were highly skilled employees? Technicians involved in assembly will continue to work on the aircraft ordered by European air forces. Given that net investment will flow into Europe, overall jobs will be created not lost. With regard to worksharing - India's investment in upgrades will be proportional to its workshare, so the EF members have an incentive to allocate a decent fraction to HAL.

arthuro wrote:Typhoon Gmbh is also said to have made monstruous sacrifices to remain competitive and not being eliminated immediately.
India will have to look the sustainability and the credibility of the Typhhon offer. These costs can be partly offloaded in the running costs. Even as a Typhoon suporter I would feel quite anxious about Typhoon slow development issue and I am sure they are even if they can't admit it.

'Said to have'? I've only heard that said by surprised Rafale fans. In any case, it augurs well for India that EF is willing to go the extra mile. HAL and private industry in particular would be pleased at EF's gung ho attitude towards offsets.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Dec 2011 21:38

shiv wrote:Folks. When is early 2012? Jan? Feb? Mar?

answer: [how about April fool's day?]

http://www.bharatrakshak.com/NEWS/newsr ... wsid=17030
are valid only till Dec 31. Both of them could be asked to extend the validity of their offers for another few months.

btw, for those who want a ranking between these two eurocanards:

As per the procedure, IAF is not supposed to give any grading like Number 1 or Number 2 to the finalists and both are equal for the defence ministry.

and, who between the two can supply say a squadron of the fighter jets real quick from their stock pile for training purposes?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 21:42

Where the Typhoon might have an edge is on "collateral offsets" : the offsets not directly related to the manufacturing of the aircraft.

Like the opening of a major R&D center, a maintenance center etc (for other applications than military for instance).

On this point I rekon that Typhoon offer should enjoy an edge.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 21:46

Err.. here I thought engineers were highly skilled employees? Technicians involved in assembly will continue to work on the aircraft ordered by European air forces. Given that net investment will flow into Europe, overall jobs will be created not lost. With regard to worksharing - India's investment in upgrades will be proportional to its workshare, so the EF members have an incentive to allocate a decent fraction to HAL.

Technicians working on the typhoon and all the support production engineers are highly skilled jobs.

You are mistaken here because if India buy the Typhoon partner nation will reduce their order as they will be able to avoid finacial penalties. So yes an Indian win will affect the number of Typhoon manufactured in Europe. It will be better temporarly due to the 18 airframe to be manufactured in Europe but afterward...

If the rafale wins there will be no change in objective for the french air force. Only indian delivery will have the priority over french ones as it will ease the defense budget for a while.

'Said to have'? I've only heard that said by surprised Rafale fans. In any case, it augurs well for India that EF is willing to go the extra mile. HAL and private industry in particular would be pleased at EF's gung ho attitude towards offsets.

It was from an article from Latribune who was quoting industry sources who took part in the negociation and offering. And Latribune is a very very reliable and solid source.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 21:55

arthuro wrote:Mirage upgrade : like it or not the plan is to increase the airframe life for another 20-25 years. Just think a second : last upgraded indian mirage will role out of the factory latter this decade and according to you about five year latter it will be retired ?

Is that what I said? I'm fairly certain I said that the Mirage will begin retiring in 2025 will the newest ones serving till 2030. Which means the units that are currently in France will be first on the way out in 2025 after serving 12-13 years after upgrades, with the last ones to be upgraded operating till 2030.

just a quick google search and you will see that it is indeed the goal :

Upgrade Requirement : Strip down of the entire airframe to extend its life by another 20 years, and to re-wire and re-equip the aircraft with new avionics, mission computers, glass cockpits, helmet-mounted displays, electronic warfare suites to support a contemporary weapon suit.
http://idp.justthe80.com/air-force-proj ... 00-upgrade

I had done a quick google search before posting that and aside from 'idp.justthe80.com', most news sources (like the Tribune article) saying the upgrade was limited to avionics and without any mention of extending the airframe's fatigue limits.

About BAE I stand by my point : Dassault is often praised for its good after sale support and because mirage 2000 proved to be a reliable aircraft that had a determining role in the Kargil war. I am not saying BAE has poor relationship just that his "aura" and reputation is not as great as dassault.

I don't subscribe to the idea that having a better relationship will have decisive impact on how the contract is awarded. That said, how does 'Mirage 2000 did well in Kargil' translate into Dassault has a better relationship with the IAF than BAE? And that being the case, how does that carry on to having a better relationship with the MoD (which has a sizeable HAL lobby)?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 22:00

Is that what I said? I'm fairly certain I said that the Mirage will begin retiring in 2025 will the newest ones serving till 2030. Which means the units that are currently in France will be first on the way out in 2025 after serving 12-13 years after upgrades, with the last ones to be upgraded operating till 2030.

First upgraded mirage 2000 will start retiring in 2030 more likely.

Paying 40 millions per aircrafts + the weapons for only 15 years of service...Talk about mismanagement ! Of course they will be kept longer despite your claims...What are you are going to do with your stock of micas then ? Answer : they will fit nicely on a rafale !

You will be even able to use some spare parts and use them on the rafale ...

That said, how does 'Mirage 2000 did well in Kargil' translate into Dassault has a better relationship with the IAF than BAE?

Perhaps because in critical wartime Dassault answerd positively and rapidely to Indian air forces requests ?
Perhaps because Dassault demonstrated that he knew how to design a very affective war plane and there should be no reasons that this positive experience would not continue with the rafale ?

Usually when a customer is satisfied by a Brand/supplier/product he will naturally have a positive bias. Especially when some of the senior IAF officers did all their class on the mirage 2000. There is always a sentimental aspect...It worked well with the swiss pilots as they flew the mirage III

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 22:09

arthuro wrote:
Err.. here I thought engineers were highly skilled employees? Technicians involved in assembly will continue to work on the aircraft ordered by European air forces. Given that net investment will flow into Europe, overall jobs will be created not lost. With regard to worksharing - India's investment in upgrades will be proportional to its workshare, so the EF members have an incentive to allocate a decent fraction to HAL.
Technicians working on the typhoon and all the support production engineers are highly skilled jobs.

You are mistaken here because if India buy the Typhoon partner nation will reduce their order as they will be able to avoid finacial penalties. So yes an Indian win will affect the number of Typhoon manufactured in Europe. It will be better temporarly due to the 18 airframe to be manufactured in Europe but afterward...

If the rafale wins there will be no change in objective for the french air force. Only indian delivery will have the priority over french ones as it will ease the defense budget for a while.

I don't think they can reduce their orders unless they replace it with export aircraft manufactured in Europe. And the Indian contract doesn't allow for that (aside from the 18). Regardless from an Indian perspective that's their business. India hasn't offered to import aircraft and no European govt. is deluded enough to think it can force India to help them out by buying the aircraft directly.

Quite simply the bulk of the contract is for license producing the aircraft and has no impact on European assembly lines while creating some jobs in the supply chain.

It was from an article from Latribune who was quoting industry sources who took part in the negociation and offering. And Latribune is a very very reliable and solid source.

So its a coincidence that the only news source that had access to information about EF Gmbh ruining itself with a very competitive financial bid was French?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 27 Dec 2011 22:22

arthuro wrote:First upgraded mirage 2000 will start retiring in 2030 more likely.

Paying 40 millions per aircrafts + the weapons for only 15 years of service...Talk about mismanagement ! Of course they will be kept longer despite your claims...What are you are going to do with your stock of micas then ? Answer : they will fit nicely on a rafale !
You will be even able to use some spare parts and use them on the rafale ...

Laugh it off if you will.. Taiwan to looking to retire its relatively new Mirage 2000s early. UAE and Qatar too were looking at turning their Mirages in. Look at how long the RAF operated its upgraded Jaguars, Sea Harriers and Harrier IIs before retirement. There's nothing wrong with a good 12 years of service after upgrades, when the AF in question is sorely in need of aircraft. Especially given that the aircraft itself is a whopping 40 years old.

Perhaps because in critical wartime Dassault answerd positively and rapidely to Indian air forces requests ?
Perhaps because Dassault demonstrated that he knew how to design a very affective war plane and there should be no reasons that this positive experience would not continue with the rafale ?

You're taking X is a positive number, and arbitrarily translating that to X>Y. Did BAE react negatively and slowly to the Indian Air Force's requests?

Usually when a customer is satisfied by a Brand/supplier/product he will naturally have a positive bias.

HAL has been successfully license producing BAE aircraft for decades. There's your positive bias.

Especially when some of the senior IAF officers did all their class on the mirage 2000.

Well the IAF's current Chief of Air Staff, is a Jaguar pilot, so....

There is always a sentimental aspect...It worked well with the swiss pilots as they flew the mirage III

Umm... and then their MoD ended up ordering the Gripen, so how did it help?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 27 Dec 2011 22:26

Typhoon orders :

You are mistaken because India will not manufacture the typhoon from scratch after the 18th airframe. It will be very progressive. So yes Typhoon partners will cut their orders.

So its a coincidence that the only news source that had access to information about EF Gmbh ruining itself with a very competitive financial bid was French?

There is nothing strange to that. Latribune journalist has his own sources withing the industry and made an interview. If it was from an obscure website ok you could call into question the credibility of this article but from Latribune it is another story. They can be very harsh toward Dassault when needed like for the missed UAE dealed when they accused dassault of being arrogant. I believe thay have reported this formaly without bias. Now you can interprete this industry declaration as you want : a sign of confindence or a sign of weakness.