Iran News and Discussions

[shyamd]

Iran is just posturing. Question is now that US is sanctionining Iranian oil. Does the US have the capability to prevent Iran from exporting oil?

There will be no punitive action against Iran directly.

But the trading partners will make a choice and stop trading with Iran which will damage the economy and create a unstable political situation leading to a spring revolution and Iran becoming more open.

Thats the easiest way out, but the problem is India Russia PRC. We are refusing to give up oil trade. Although PRC is implementing sanctions against Iran now(just a few months ago). Only Russsia and Malaysia are resisting.

Acharya ji, no direct action strategy is changed as of last month. Its the last option on the table still. Iran is closer to getting the maal than was expected.

This is supposed to create a ripple effect.

Economy > unstbaility > spring revolution > change in regime.

Iran will change in 3 years. Liberal Irani s are looking forward to it

Thats the aim, the latest sanctions are moving this process faster. This is the only long term solution to the N issue. Short term - may have to do direct action. Iran knows hence asking for talks to stall the US. They will accept andrenege on deal.

[Virupaksha]

All IMHO onlee.
Any war in the present term will affect how the iranian society develops - the development of post islamist iranian(PII).
War from outside at the present stage will put a hard brake on it as the islamists will necessarily use rhetoric like "it is an attack against islam"/ "it is an attack due to jeolosy due to persian heritage".

In the attack from outside, US will force that Soudi Arabia will have atleast a major public relation ship role so that it cannot be seen as an attack on islam. Even after the possible victory in invasion the outsiders because of sensitivity to Soudis cannot say to the iranians that the attack was against islamists and take any steps to deligitimize them. The deligitimization will instead take the role of the deligimitization of the persian heritage with token removal of the mullahs from high ups. This will entail in the minds of common iranian, that the "liberals"/PIIs sided with the outsiders because they wanted to hurt persia.

My view is any attack from outside especially with overt support from Soudis will in the long term cause the PIIs to actually lose their ground support . The islamists with their better and age old powerful networks will be wiser to not take direct role from then on. Their classic case of straddling will continue and this huge god given once in 500 years error of islamists to directly take reins will be wasted. Iran will become a Soudi 2.0

Perhaps the sounding of war drums today by the west is due to the exact same reason.

[RajeshA]

Virupaksha ji,

If the war propaganda attack on Iran is led by GCC forces with Arab media in support, many Iranians would simply not buy the story of the Muslim brotherhood. The Iran-Iraq war the Iranians could sell as caused by some Murtad (Ba'athist) Saddam Hussein, but if the whole Middle-East Sunni World declares war on Iran, then it would be a hard-sell to tell the people that Muslims are brothers.

The regime would go Ultra-Shi'ite whereas the people would go Non-Islamic!

[Virupaksha]

Virupaksha ji,

If the war propaganda attack on Iran is led by GCC forces with Arab media in support, many Iranians would simply not buy the story of the Muslim brotherhood. The Iran-Iraq war the Iranians could sell as caused by some Murtad (Ba'athist) Saddam Hussein, but if the whole Middle-East Sunni World declares war on Iran, then it would be a hard-sell to tell the people that Muslims are brothers.

The regime would go Ultra-Shi'ite whereas the people would go Non-Islamic!

We can always have turkey, iraq(for covering shiite), uae providing the man power and the public face where as syria, bahrain, oman, soudi arabia and pakistan denouncing the attacks or some such combination so that it cannot be sold as one. USA will provide the manpower and can also take the risk.
Anyway after the victory and establishing their puppets, the after war propoganda can cover such islamist angles.

The only problem is Israel. Any overt role of Israel will cause Islamists to denounce the alliance as murtad.

[Aditya_V]

I think what the Allies need is a Saddam type invasion of Kuwait to act against Iran, if Iran blocks the Hormuz and tries a failed attack on UAE and QATAR then their fate will be doomed.

Besides now that Iran has fired a sea launched cruise missile, Arab countries will now spend a fortune on buying, SM-2, SM-3 and Aster missiles and their variants.

[shyamd]

Iran has very little capability. Their weapons are old. Iran will be dealt with by having naval armada's travel in the area, which forces iran to divert resources to defence expenditure and less on its people and development. eventually the hope is that the people will get so frustrated and a revolution will take place.Thats what they hope to achieve with all the saber rattling by the US and the renewed sanctions. The sanctions of iranian oil and central bank is the final blow to Iran. Next step is war. But war is only a short term solution it doesnt stop iran from trying again, it just slows them down a little bit.

The long term solution is revolution.

[RajeshA]

shyamd ji,

Any chance the anti-Iranian coalition would consider occupying Khuzestan, Bushehr and/or Hormozgan?

[shyamd]

possibly. That threat has been brandished before. I dont they have the numbers to pull that off. GCC posture is defensive. not offensive.

[Virupaksha]

I think what the Allies need is a Saddam type invasion of Kuwait to act against Iran, if Iran blocks the Hormuz and tries a failed attack on UAE and QATAR then their fate will be doomed.

any such tonkins can be duly arranged.

[arun]

X Posted from the TSP thread.

The BBC reports that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has detained security guards of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Is it not haram for one Islamic Republic to detain momins of another Islamic Republic

Alternatively is it halal for a Sunni majority Islamic Republic to detain members of a Shia majority Islamic Republic :

Iranian border guards detained in Pakistan

[RajeshA]

Iranian border guards detained in Pakistan

Another Raymond Davis episode in the making!

[Brando]

Iranian reckless behavior continues to endanger the world and threatens the globe economically by introducing instability with its statements.
Oil jumps on Middle east Tensions -WSJ

At a time when India is already suffering from a dangerous Balance of payments current account deficit, the Iranian statements are making life difficult for India by shooting up International Oil prices! Further oil increases could see all of the RBI's anti-inflationary efforts go to waste.

India should try to either facilitate some kind of arbitration to clam things or should proclaim its insistence on uninterrupted passage through the Hormuz. This directly affects out national security and economic interests. It's absurd that the GoI is playing the mute spectator when there are hundreds of millions in India who will be directly affected by any violence in the Persian gulf.

I think the best outcome would be a neutral naval patrol of the Persian Gulf by Arab League navies and/or the Indian navy to maintain peace and secure the SLOC in the Hormuz.

[Advait]

If GOI had any sense, we should try to do a oil for goods trade. Get cheap oil and start an auto boom in India.

[Agnimitra]

Iranian border guards detained in Pakistan

Another Raymond Davis episode in the making!

May be retaliation for the merciless shooting down of Paki "fishermen" recently during Muharram, when they "strayed" into Irani waters off Baluchistan.

[devesh]

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalco ... h-election

Tehran's domestic politics are torn ahead of March election

The Iranian regime is at a crossroads. The parliamentary elections on March 2, 2012 are arguably one of the most consequential electoral events in the 32-year history of the Iranian theocracy. The legislative poll could serve as a barometer measuring the regime's legitimacy, assessing the state of its internal conflicts and projecting its political future. But what distinguishes this election from previous ones?

Part of the significance is timing. The upcoming poll will mark the first election since the uprising that followed the 2009 disputed presidential election. What Iranian leaders often referred to as the "pillar of the Islamic Republic", the electoral mandate, nearly became the cause of its undoing two years ago.

City council elections, slated for the winter of 2011, were postponed as the regime paved the ground to repress dissent, marginalise opponents and ponder the future.

It is precisely for this reason that from a security point of view, the 2012 vote is peculiar. Alarmist rhetoric of the ruling elite reveals the stress levels in Tehran. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has openly called the March vote a potential "security challenge". His protégé, the minister of intelligence Heydar Moslehi, has described it as the "most sensitive elections in the history of the Islamic Republic".

The regime is now in a quandary. While it has traditionally boasted about high-voter participation as the symbol of its legitimacy, Tehran is increasingly concerned that an election boycott or turmoil could adversely affect its standing. In the wake of the Arab uprisings, the clerical regime is seeking to project an image of its power and popularity. If the election becomes a dismal affair, however, it will have the reverse effect.

Choreographing high voter turnout is an art that the Islamic Republic has mastered over the past three decades. Therefore, the pivotal issue at the crux of the next election is more than just a mere security threat. The political realignment that has been in the making for some time is likely to culminate on election day.

Following the public rift between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader in April of 2011, fissures among conservative factions have surfaced in an unprecedented way. Mr Ahmadinejad and his close associates have been under siege by the ruling apparatus over the past few months.

The tensions that have been brewing underneath the surface have now transformed into open political conflict. The infighting is not bred by ideology as the election platforms of the competing conservative factions are quite similar and their revolutionary vocabulary is identical. The current power struggle instead seems primarily about consolidating control over state resources.

With the reformist factions completely marginalised, the election battle will be confined to forces loyal to the president arrayed against followers of the supreme leader. While the president's camp pulls the strings of the ministry of interior, which is in charge of conducting the elections, the supreme leader's group controls the omnipotent Guardian Council that vets candidates and certifies the election results.

The 30th election since the 1979 revolution is not only about who commands the next parliament. Legislative elections have customarily paved the way for the ensuing presidential election. Mr Ahmadinejad's second and final term in office will come to an end in 2013. Therefore, rival factions are not only seeking to maximise their share of parliamentary seats, but are vying for the keys to the presidential palace.

Beyond signalling who may become the next president, the 2012 vote could be a litmus test for the country's political course. In October 2011, Ayatollah Khamenei hinted that the Iranian polity could alter from a presidential system to a parliamentary one in the future. The dysfunctional split structure of power in Iran could have prompted this decision.

Bitter arguments with the last three presidents has made the current system a problem for the supreme leader. Moreover, of the 20 elections held under Ayatollah Khamenei's tenure, presidential elections have been vexing. High voter turnout and unexpected electoral outcomes have proven to be a destabilising force and a liability for the regime.

[shyamd]

Never ceases to bore me. The basiji's paid students to join the protests... the raid were done by serving Basij officers. A very smart move to shut down intel collection by the west!
Iran ends 2011 with a blaze of intelligence

By Mahan Abedin

The appearance on Iranian state TV on Sunday of alleged Central Intelligence Agency spy Amir Hekmati is yet another twist in a string of apparent Iranian counter-intelligence successes at the expense of US espionage.

The 28-year old Arizona-born man of Iranian origin has been accused by Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) of trying to feed disinformation to the ministry with a view to gaining a foothold on the outer reaches of the MOIS.

A former member of the United States Marines Corps, Hekmati was apparently detained in September. News of his detention was released just days ago.

This apparent counter-intelligence success comes on the heels of the capture of the ultra-secret US RQ-170 Sentinel drone in early

Dilbert

December. Iran claims that the country's electronic and cyber-warfare units managed to gain control of the drone and forced it to land. Video footage shown on Iranian TV - which appears to show the drone in immaculate condition - support Iranian claims that the unmanned aerial vehicle was manipulated by Iranian electronic and cyber-warfare specialists and directed to land safely.

These stunning achievements in the intelligence, electronic and cyber-warfare fields are taking place against a backdrop of steadily deteriorating relations between Iran and Western powers.

At the end of November, Iranian protestors attacked the UK embassy in Tehran, setting off tit-for-tat embassy closures by the two countries. The attack on the embassy may also be considered as an extension of the intelligence war between Iran and the West in so far as the British mission in Tehran was a major hub for the collection of an assortment of open source and classified information.

It appears that the Iranian government is determined to minimize the scope for Western interference in parliamentary elections scheduled for early March 2012. More broadly, the Islamic Republic appears to be mobilizing all of its intelligence assets to withstand and ultimately defeat a widely anticipated economic siege.

CIA in retreat
Information from a wide range of Iranian media and Asia Times Online sources in Tehran suggest a complex operation by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to introduce Amir Hekmati as a trusted source to the MOIS.

With previous combat experience in Afghanistan, Hekmati worked for a number of contractors with suspected CIA connections following his departure from the marines.

It is believed that he contacted the MOIS before he flew to Iran in late summer ostensibly to visit his extended family. While Hekmati's approach was unoriginal, his information was sufficiently strong to attract the attention of Iranian intelligence. Nevertheless, it appears that he was suspected of being an American intelligence asset from the outset.

It seems that the information supplied by Hekmati to the MOIS is a clever mix of genuine intelligence, half-truths and bogus intelligence. Most of this information centers on US military, intelligence and political operations in Afghanistan.

While Iranian media, quoting intelligence sources, have identified Hekmati's core mission as one centered on gaining the trust of the MOIS with a view to setting up a penetration operation, the truth is likely much more complex.

For a start, "penetrating" the MOIS or even its most peripheral parts is virtually an impossible task in view of the ministry's multiple layers of robust defenses designed to defeat the most resourceful and deceptive of unfriendly operatives, let alone an American citizen and a former marine.

From a purely conjectural point of view, it is more likely that the CIA was attempting to identify - and subsequently manipulate - Iranian intelligence collection priorities in Afghanistan. Hekmati's clever mix of genuine and bogus intelligence, with the probable promise of a pipeline delivering the same type of material over a prolonged period, points to that conjectural conclusion.

Hekmati's arrest follows a string of MOIS counter-intelligence successes at the expense of the CIA and the wider American intelligence community. The ministry's ability to repeatedly defeat the CIA's ever-innovative methods is indicative of steadily improving counter-intelligence capabilities and reinforces the MOIS's reputation as one of the major intelligence organizations on the world stage.

The capture of the RQ-170 Sentinel, operated by the US Air Force on behalf of the CIA, significantly adds to US woes by painting a credible picture of Iran as a major counter-espionage, electronic and cyber-warfare hub.

The dramatic blow to US prestige was underscored by US President Barack Obama's humiliating request for the return of the drone. In view of the circumstances surrounding the drone's capture, this was a truly extraordinary request and one that was gleefully dismissed by the Iranians.

Economic warfare
The dramatic spike in CIA activity inside Iran in 2011 has reinforced the Iranian leadership's conviction that the Western powers are set on a confrontation and a possible military showdown with the Islamic Republic.

By the same token, the Iranian leadership is likely to use the recent counter-intelligence victories to achieve three short- to medium-term objectives. First and foremost, the political leadership in Tehran will direct the MOIS to confront the CIA and other Western agencies with a view to withstanding and ultimately defeating the strict sanctions regime imposed on Iran.

The dominant view in Tehran is that the sanctions regime will become even harsher in 2012, possibly to the point of developing into an economic siege by the end of the year. This scenario becomes likelier if the West decides to boycott Iranian oil and gas exports.

Second, the Iranian leadership is keen to deny Western intelligence services the opportunity to meddle in the March parliamentary elections. There is a fear in Tehran that Western agencies - working directly and indirectly with radical opposition elements - will try to incite riots and disorder, similar in style if not scope to the ones that rocked the Iranian capital in June 2009 following the disputed presidential elections.

The attack on the British embassy was likely partly motivated by this concern. The British mission in Tehran has long been recognized as the most active hub of Western intelligence-gathering inside Iran. Its closure denies the UK and the US governments of a wide range of material, including street-level intelligence.

Third, the Islamic Republic is likely to use the MOIS's stunning intelligence and counter-intelligence successes to escalate the security environment that was imposed following the disputed presidential elections of June 2009 and the riots and disorders that followed.

While widely acknowledged as only a temporary solution, it is also felt across every level of the Islamic Republic that the security climate is needed to prepare the country for what increasingly looks like an inevitable confrontation with the West.

Mahan Abedin is an analyst of Middle East politics.

This article was written prior to the new year. and how accurately predicted the comng sanctions.

[Klaus]

Britain's defense secretary warns Iran that blocking the Strait of Hormuz will be illegal and unsuccessful.

Though Hammond did not specifically threaten a military response if Iran blocks the movement of oil tankers, he warned Tehran that both British and US forces would be close at hand

[Agnimitra]

The US-Iran economic war

With the stroke of a pen, United States President Barack Obama instituted legislation aimed at taking Iran's 2.5 million barrels of oil a day in exports off the global market. In reality it is not going to happen; expect a rash of new private banks set up all across the developing world for the purpose of buying Iranian oil. But there will be collateral damage - in the West itself.
- Pepe Escobar

Already some Indo-Iran talks about setting up pvt banks for oil payments.

[Philip]

A close pal strategically positioned in the area,informed me that tensions are running very high.Britain is now sending its top naval warship to the region.

Royal Navy sends its mightiest ship to take on the Iranian show of force in the Gulf
The Royal Navy's most formidable warship is being sent to the Gulf for its first mission as tensions rise in the strategically vital region, it can be disclosed.

By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent
06 Jan 2012

Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which served as the conduit for 17 millions barrels of oil every day last year.

Naval commanders believe the deployment of HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer, will send a significant message to the Iranians because of the firepower and world-beating technology carried by the warship.

Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, has publicly warned Iran that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be "illegal and unsuccessful".

The Daily Telegraph understands that HMS Daring has been fitted with new technology that will give it the ability to shoot down any missile in Iran's armoury. The £1 billion destroyer, which will leave Portsmouth next Wednesday, also carries the world's most sophisticated naval radar, capable of tracking multiple incoming threats from missiles to fighter jets.

Daring, with its crew of 190, will transit through the Suez Canal and enter the Gulf later this month to replace the Type 23 frigate currently on station.

Iran completed a 10-day naval exercise in the sensitive waters near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, staging manouevres which included firing three anti-ship missiles understood to be the Chinese-made C-802.

Yesterday, Tehran said that another exercise would be held in the same area next month. Admiral Ali Fadavi, commander of the naval branch of the Revolutionary Guard, warned that this would be "different" from the most recent one.

Speaking earlier, Mr Hammond said that "our joint naval presence in the Arabian Gulf" was "key to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade".

A Navy source has indicated that more British ships could be sent to the Gulf if required. The second Type 45, HMS Dauntless, will also be available to sail at short notice.

Daring's special software upgrades will significantly increase the ability of its Sampson radar and Sea Viper missiles to destroy incoming missiles.

During an intensive "swarm attack", the vessel could simultaneously track, engage and destroy more targets than five of it predecessor Type 42 destoyers.

The Sea Viper is also one of the world's most agile missiles equipped with its own radar that can allow it to hit a target a hundred miles away.

Lord West, the former First Sea Lord, described Daring as a "world beater", adding: "This warship has an unbelievably capable ability to track targets, spot the most dangerous and identify them for its missiles to take out. It's highly, highly capable. I would like to see the Type 45s show their potential in the region."

The 8,000 ton destroyer will carry 48 Sea Vipers that can also be used to shoot down fighters as well as sea skimming missiles. It will also carry a Lynx helicopter capable of carrying Sea Skua anti-ship missiles and is capable of embarking 60 special forces troops.

An MoD spokesman said: "While the newly operational Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring is more capable than earlier ships, her deployment East of Suez has been long planned, is entirely routine and replaces a frigate on station."

PS:Is there is a glaring error in the report,about the range of the "Sea Viper" SAM,quoted as being of "100 miles"? Most reports about the missile have its range as being of "70 miles",roughly 100+ km.Interestingly,this appears to be a greater range than the Barak-8 which the IN is developing with Israel.One cannot understand why there was no contest for the principal LR SAM for the IN's warships.

Sea Viper is the punch of the Type 45 destroyers, the very reason the ships exist - and the reason why that main mast is so tall. The missile provides all-round defence – not just for the destroyer but for an entire naval task group - against all aerial threats some 70 miles away. It races towards its target at speeds in excess of Mach Four (over 3,000mph) using a series of tiny jets to manoeuvre, carrying out sharp turns at G forces no human could endure.

The system comprises Sampson radar (the spinning egg atop the Type 45’s main mast), a Combat Management System, long-range radar, the Sylver missile-launching system on the destroyer's forecastle and Aster 15 and Aster 30 missiles with ranges up to 20 and 75 miles respectively.

Until January 28 2009 – the date of the arrival of the first Type 45, HMS Daring, in Portsmouth – Sea Viper was known as PAAMS: Principal Anti-Air Missile System.

The missiles were tested at France's missile range, the Centre d’Essais de Lancement des Missiles on Île du Levant, off Toulon, using a special trials barge, Longbow, before the first successful firing from Type 45.

That came off the Outer Hebrides in September 2010 at the Benbecula ranges, where HMS Dauntless successfully shot down a drone target.

[Prem]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/ ... MI20120106
India's MRPL not cutting back Iranian oil imports

Jan 6 (Reuters) - Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, India's biggest buyer of Iranian crude at about 150,000 barrels per day, has not cut purchases despite U.S. sanctions against Tehran, a top executive told Reuters on Friday.
The new U.S. law allows President Barack Obama to offer waivers to prevent havoc in oil markets, but to receive the permits countries are expected to demonstrate that they are reducing ties with Tehran.
"We haven't cut back supplies from Iran," Sudhir Vasudeva, chairman of India's state-owned explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp said in an interview. MRPL is a subsidiary of ONGC.New financial sanctions signed into law by Obama on New Year's Eve make it difficult for most countries to buy Iranian oil. The European Union is expected to announce tough measures of its own at the end of the month.
Indian companies have begun talks with alternative suppliers to slowly replace Iranian oil, fearing their current mechanism for payments to Tehran for some 350,000 barrels a day (bpd) via Turkey could soon succumb to sanctions.Vasudeva did not give any detail on where the alternative supplies would come from but said: "We are taking 7 million tonnes from Iran. The payment mechanism through Halkbank is working as of now."India, which a year ago lost one conduit for payments, is already looking for alternatives as Halkbank, the Turkish bank handling some transfers, refused to open an account for Indian refinery Bharat Petroleum.India is talking to a Russian bank as an alternative to Halkbank, a government source had said last month.

[Samudragupta]

This is the high time that India deploys its own millitary on to the Iran...obviously not to support anybody "but purely for Humanitarian ground."..The Islands are precious enough to not to allow those to fall under the Arab hands.....

[Kashi]

The payment mechanism through Halkbank is working as of now."India, which a year ago lost one conduit for payments, is already looking for alternatives as Halkbank, the Turkish bank handling some transfers, refused to open an account for Indian refinery Bharat Petroleum.

Why did they refuse to open an account? I thought Turkey was now cool to the idea of joining the EU and their relations with Iran are not bad.

I also wonder what happened to our potential agreement with Iran on Rupee trade.

[Dhiman]

Why did they refuse to open an account? I thought Turkey was now cool to the idea of joining the EU and their relations with Iran are not bad.

I also wonder what happened to our potential agreement with Iran on Rupee trade.

This should explain both your questions: Petrodollar Warfare

[shyamd]

x post

They are preparing for war - source is preparing a report for meeting tomorrow. Lots of closed door stuff happening in the GCC and they say they need time to deliberate and think about the issues.

Response to Iranian attack - seize 3 islands and hit nuclear sites - source hinted at it by saying no comment to a few specific questions

When asked about whether India ahs opened the dialogueon Iran GCC relations and resolving nuclea isue - Source says India will take action according to how much weight it gives to interests in both GCC and Iran. The GCC is waiting andwatching to see what India does.

SMK will be making a stop over in Jordan and UAE after Israel visit.

Source confirmed US SF are conducting reconnaisance missions in Syria.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta ... nnaissance
These are theguys on the ground.

[g.sarkar]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_n ... n-oil.html
"Tokyo and Seoul struggle to quit Iranian oil habit
January 8, 2012 | 4:00 am
REPORTING FROM SEOUL — South Korea and Japan, two energy-challenged Asian nations dependent on Iranian crude oil, are pondering ways to overcome the steep price of adhering to a U.S. embargo against the Middle Eastern country.
Reeling from the financial aftermath of March’s earthquake and tsunami, Tokyo officials are exploring alternative petroleum sources to fuel a flagging economy especially reliant on imported oil and natural gas.
"We are considering our response and are closely discussing the matter with the U.S.," a Japanese Foreign Ministry official, Kazuhiro Kawase, said Friday.
Earlier in the week, South Korean officials said they would ask Washington for an exemption from the embargo to lessen the “negative impacts" of the Iranian sanctions. South Korea imports 97% of its oil and, like Japan, depends on Iran for up to 10% of its supplies.
The South Korean press reported Sunday that Seoul officials are considering a move to reduce imports of Iranian oil to 2010 levels.
China, the region’s biggest importer of Iranian oil, has balked at the embargo, with Beijing calling for negotiations with Washington. "Sanctioning is not the correct approach to easing tensions," said Chinese ministry spokesman Hong Lei.
Reacting to the worsening diplomatic standoff, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will visit Beijing and Tokyo this week. Seoul plans to send a delegation to Washington to discuss the sanctions, approved last month by President Barack Obama as a way to prompt Tehran to give up its burgeoning nuclear program.
South Korea and Japan have been placed in the most precarious position by the oil embargo, which bars financial institutions from buying or selling Iranian oil or oil products......."
Gautam

[Prem]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/russia-ir ... park-syria
Russia, Iran Proceed With Bilateral Trade, Drop Dollar; Russian Warships Park In Syria; Iran Accelerates Nuclear Enrichment

For anyone wondering how the abandonment of the dollar reserve status would look like we have a Hollow Men reference: not with a bang, but a whimper... Or in this case a whole series of bilateral agreements that quietly seeks to remove the US currency as an intermediate. Such as these: "World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", and now this: "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says." And ironically, the proposal to dump the greenback did not come from Iran. Per Bloomberg: "Iran and Russia replaced the U.S. dollar with their national currencies in bilateral trade, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Seyed Reza Sajjadi, the Iranian ambassador in Moscow. The proposal to switch to the ruble and the rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ambassador said." Is Iran gradually becoming the poster child of an energy rich country that just says no to the dollar: "Iran has replaced the dollar in its oil trade with India, China and Japan, Fars reported." Next thing you know China, Russia and Japan will engage in bilateral trade agreements with the Eurozone in exchange for purchasing European or EFSF (which at last check are now forced to give 30% guaranatees) bonds, and bypassing dollars completely. But yes, aside from everyone else, virtually everyone (footnote 1) is still using the dollar as currency of global exchange.
And just to make sure that the message is heard loud and clear, Russia just docked several warships in Syria, the same country the US told all American citizens to leave two months ago. From China Daily:Russian warships patrolling the eastern Mediterranean Sea have docked at Russia's naval supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, the private Addounia TV reported Saturday.Governor of Tartus Imad Naddaf received the ships' leaders and expressed appreciation to Russia's support for Syria, the report said. Russia's state-owned Itar-Tass news agency quoted a source from the Russian Navy as saying that "It is planned that the port of Tartus will be visited by a big anti-submarine ship of the Northern Fleet 'Admiral Chabanenko' and an escort ship 'Yaroslav Mudry'.""Our ships are supposed to stay in Syria for several days," the source said, without giving more details about the warships' mission in the country.The move is considered by many observers as an apparent show of Russia's support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad whose country has been gripped by a nearly 10-month bloody unrest.The Russian Navy, however, claimed the move was part of scheduled exercises and had no connection with the situation in Syria.The warships, led by "Admiral Kuznetsov," the country's only aircraft carrier, have started their patrol missions in the Northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea on December 6 to "ensure the security of the sea navigation and other Russian maritime economic activities," according to the Russian Navy.\

[member_21708]

India wants to pay for Iranian crude in rupees
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 411309.cms

[abhischekcc]

^ Great!

The oil trade from Iran is getting de-dollarized. These monies will flow back into the host countries and encourage Iran to buy more from them. Another way that South South cooperation is increasing

-----------
India should ask Saudi Arabia to provide oil in rupees, not dollars, if they want our support against Iran. This should be done for the long term. India and KSA have a lot of two way trade in good and services. Why not denominate the same in our respective currencies? It will enhance regional bonds while also increasing the independence of both countries vis-a-vis US.

[krisna]

Uncle does not like any country to use other than dollar currency. Will have to see how things pan out.
Saddam Hussein kicked the bucket as he used non dollar currency for his oil deals.

[krisna]

Now that Iraq's done Vikram Sood.Dec 21 2011.

The Great Game of the 21st Century is being played out in West Asia . This time round, it's about the control of Iran's vast energy resources.

The US’s war in Iraq is over but it has ended in a fiasco. Iraq is unstable and Iran is emerging as the strongest force in the region. However, some believe that Washington has accomplished its mission in Iraq: the US and its allies have managed to regain control over the oil business in the country, which threatened to slip out of their control in 2002. Today, despite the West’s dubious success in Libya and Egypt, and the uncertainties in Syria, Iran remains a prime target for the US and its friends

The US’s logic is that since Iran is rich in energy resources, it has no reason to produce nuclear energy, which they see as the first step towards achieving Tehran’s final goal of becoming a nuclear State. Iran’s attitude has been ambivalent. Tehran dared to move out of its dependency on the dollar for its energy revenue when it faced sanctions. Since the US and its allies were keen on preventing this, they unleashed a combination of war games, mind games and spy games against Iran. What is unfolding in the region now is a 21st century version of the Great Game. And the targets are oil and gas resources of Iran.

In the media, experts often discuss how Israel, surrounded by hostile nations, is determined to prevent any State from acquiring nuclear weapons and how it might strike Iran. The list of targets in Iran includes nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Natanz and Arak. They also discuss the possible routes the attackers could take, much in the style of the Osirak attack of 1981. But many may not remember that the Mossad, the Israeli military intelligence, and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission had opposed the Osirak attack. Even today, they are against any such attack. The decision was political then — and would have to be even so today.

( did not know this)

The US has a formidable force in the 6th Fleet patrolling the Mediterranean and the 5th Fleet operating from Bahrain. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have bought US weapons worth $22 billion in recent years and the Saudis have a deal worth $60 billion pending. With so much firepower in the neighbourhood and hostile Sunni-Arab neighbours, Iran has reasons to worry.

Playing its own version of mind games, the Iranian National Security Committee on December 12 announced that the country would hold a military exercise on how to close the strait. A closure of the strait could push up oil prices astronomically. About 75% of the oil for Asian markets including India, China, Japan and South Korea passes through the strait daily

Meanwhile, Iran and Syria also have their supporters. The Russians have decided to move their nuclear-armed aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov to the shores of Syria along with a flotilla from the Black Sea. The Russians also have geo-strategic interests in Syria and, along with China, have watched the Nato exceed the UN mandate in Libya. Both these countries have been opposing sanctions against Syria, have even larger interests in the oil- and gas-rich Iran and have signed strategic cooperation agreements with Tehran. Russia has been supplying high-tech military technology along with nuclear hardware and hopes to build more nuclear plants in Iran. China, with its growing energy needs, is a major investor in Iran’s energy and infrastructure sectors and has a thriving trade with the country.

It is the control of production and distribution of oil that has helped America’s military and economic rise. The gigantic oil conglomerates bankrolled its post-World War economic boom. The West endeavours to retain control of both. Oil major BP has calculated that the world consumed 13.2 billion tonnes of oil in 2010. In the same year, oil production was only 82 million barrels a day as against the estimated 97 million barrels a day. Future predictions about increased production are not very encouraging either. Worse, the world would need a 40% increase in fossil fuel supplies by 2030 for industrial powers and for sharply increasing demands from China, India and other nations. West Asia’s multiple insecurities affect not only Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States but also global growth which depends on uninterrupted energy supplies.

The Great Game of the century in West Asia is ultimately about the control of the region and its energy resources.

[Prem]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... siran.html
China rejects linking trade and Iranian nukes

BEIJING —
A top Chinese diplomat on Monday rejected linking Iran's nuclear program to trade, adding to tensions with Washington on the eve of a visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to seek support for sanctions on Tehran's oil industry.A deputy foreign minister, Cui Tiankai, said China's trade with Iran, an important oil supplier, has nothing to do with the Iranian nuclear program.Washington is pressuring Tehran to abandon what Western governments say is an effort to develop nuclear weapons. Sanctions approved by President Barack Obama on New Year's Eve would bar financial institutions that deal with Iran's central bank from the U.S. market."The normal trade relations and energy cooperation between China and Iran have nothing to do with the nuclear issue," Cui told reporters. "We should not mix issues with different natures, and China's legitimate concerns and demands should be respected."China's fast-growing economy is the world's biggest energy consumer and obtained about 11 percent of its oil imports from Iran last year. Industry analysts say Beijing is unlikely to support an oil embargo against Iran because such huge imports would be next to impossible to obtain from other sources.The sanctions have led to a clash of interests between Washington and key commercial and strategic partners in Asia.South Korea and Japan also depend on Iranian oil and are negotiating with Washington in an effort to keep supplies flowing. South Korea obtains up to 10 percent of its oil from Iran, while Japan gets nearly 9 percent.
The dispute threatens to add to irritants in U.S.-Chinese ties, which are strained by disputes over market access and pressure on Beijing to ease currency controls that Washington complains are swelling its trade surplus."We feel strongly that all countries including China ought to be looking hard at how we can reduce dependence on Iranian oil as a way to send a signal to that government that it needs to come back under compliance with its international obligations," U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told a news briefing in Washington.Cui, one of the top officials in charge of relations with Washington, said Beijing supports nuclear nonproliferation efforts but believes Iran is entitled to develop peaceful atomic energy.He rejected suggestions that anyone who does business with Iran is providing money for nuclear programs.
"According to this logic, if the Iranians have enough money to feed their population, then they have the ability to develop nuclear programs. If that is the case, should we also deny Iran the opportunity to feed its population?" he said."We believe the livelihood of the Iranian people and the normal economic ties between countries in the world and Iran should not be affected

[ramana]

Gulf are used to use Indian Silver rupees till 1965.

[svinayak]

The word 'Rupiah' was used till 1979 in the middle east

[Agnimitra]

Iran death sentence for 'CIA spy' Amir Mirzai Hekmati

Even the National Iranian American Council, which runs from pillar to post urging diplomacy and fighting war-mongering anti-Iranian lobbies, is hyperventilating about this case:

NIAC Urges Iran to Reverse Iranian American's Death Sentence

[Agnimitra]

Kaveh Afrasiabi ties Iran's fortune to that of NAM.

Ahmadinejad's tour tests non-alignment

The US media is awash with scornful depictions of Ahmadinejad's Latin trip, such as calling it a "tour of tyrants".

"What the empire does makes you laugh," Chavez stated on Venezuelan TV ahead of Ahmadinejad's arrival, perhaps with a degree of legitimacy, given that the US has called Iran's announcement of starting uranium enrichment at a new underground facility near the city of Qom as a "provocation".

[...]

It little matters that the US has recently set up new uranium enrichment facilities that are not even inspected by the IAEA, and the fact that the US, France and Britain give themselves the license to modernize their nuclear arsenals while at the same time holding the banner of counter-proliferation around the world; this speaks volumes about the unjust and hierarchical nature of today's global politics.

In a sign of Iran's impatience with the US's coercive policy - including a move to curb countries from dealing with its central bank - Tehran has imposed the death penalty on an Iranian-American accused of spying.

Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, 28, was sentenced to death on Monday after being convicted of espionage for the US Central Intelligence Agency. The former marine had been detained last August in Iran. Hopefully tempers on both sides will subside and the sentence will be commuted.

[...]

What binds countries such as Iran, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Ecuador and Bolivia is their shared antinomy to a rigid Western domination of international affairs to the detriment of the majority of the world community that are members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which is slated to be led by Iran in 2012; the summit of NAM leaders in Iran was initially schedule for mid-summer but reportedly has been postponed.

A number of hegemonic mouthpieces in the West have recently penned that the West should try to knock NAM out of existence when Iran assumes its presidency.

Yet NAM is a viable, and vital, source of anti-hegemony, a building bloc of Third World politics at a crucial time when the unbound Western powers and their military alliances, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), are taking advantage of the Middle East turmoil to expand their influence. This they are doing by reverting to old neo-colonial policies, reflected in the recent assault on Libya and the quest for control of Libyan oil.

At this critical juncture, the battle over Iran is indeed a litmus test of the NAM's independence and will to fight back and keep at bay the tsunami of coercive Western hegemony, rationalized by a whole army of Western academics and media pundits.

It is clear that the Western struggle against Iran is tightly connected to the hegemonic powers' attempt to consolidate their hold on world affairs and to deliver a powerful jab to the widening net of the NAM, which openly contests the nuclear club nations' failure to implement their responsibilities toward disarmament under the terms of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

In other words, if the US, France and Britain and their neo-imperialist partners achieve their objectives against Iran, that is, first weakening the country economically and then ripening it for outright invasion and military assault, that would be a lethal blow to the global counter-hegemonic alliance that includes the Latin nations mentioned above.

But, by all indications, the new, post-Cold War order is beyond the pale of pure hegemony, and both the NAM and the mushrooming of new regional formations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization, led by China and Russia, reflect a more complex and heterogeneous global reality more akin to multi-polarism than Western-centric pure and simple.

As a result, it is far from given that the combined weight of Western pressure on Iran will succeed in isolating it and consigning it to become another Iraq or Libya.

For one thing, Iran's military power is far more advanced - its naval power in the Persian Gulf alone is capable of delivering major blows to enemy attacks, imperiling oil transfers out of the narrow waterways of the Strait of Hormuz - thus making the Western military option on Iran a costly one for Western economies. In turn, this allows Iran to play brinksmanship, much to the chagrin of hegemonic mouthpieces in the Western media.

[Agnimitra]

Uncle does not like any country to use other than dollar currency. Will have to see how things pan out.
Saddam Hussein kicked the bucket as he used non dollar currency for his oil deals.

Actually Iran has already started taking steps in that direction, with Russia. India should also go down that path, citing extenuating circumstances and strategic compulsions due to an unfair oil embargo.

Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says

Iran and Russia replaced the U.S. dollar with their national currencies in bilateral trade, Iran’s state-run Fars news agency reported, citing Seyed Reza Sajjadi, the Iranian ambassador in Moscow.

The proposal to switch to the ruble and the rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the ambassador said.

Iran has replaced the dollar in its oil trade with India, China and Japan, Fars reported.

The European Union, the U.S. and the United Nations are applying sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. Iran says its nuclear efforts are for civilian purposes and to generate electricity, while the U.S. and several major allies say the program represents a weapons threat.

[Aditya_V]

Bomb kills Iran university professor: Report

The killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was similar to previous apparent assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists that Tehran has blamed on Israel and the United States. Both countries have denied the accusations.

Roshan, 32, was inside the Iranian-assembled Peugeot 405 car together with two others when the bomb expoded near Gol Nabi Street in north Tehran, Fars reported. It was not immediately clear if Ahmadi was involved in Iran's nuclear program.

[abhischekcc]

Gulf are used to use Indian Silver rupees till 1965.

More precisely, till the Indo-Pak war of 1965.

[member_20067]

Bomb kills Iran university professor: Report

The killing of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan was similar to previous apparent assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists that Tehran has blamed on Israel and the United States. Both countries have denied the accusations.

Roshan, 32, was inside the Iranian-assembled Peugeot 405 car together with two others when the bomb expoded near Gol Nabi Street in north Tehran, Fars reported. It was not immediately clear if Ahmadi was involved in Iran's nuclear program.

I hope our own scientists are given protective covers... I remember one of our from DRDO.? disappearing a year ago and later his body was found drowned or something

[Agnimitra]

Gosh the sailor-rescues are like a psy-ops freeding frenzy for the US -

US Military Rescues Iranian Sailors, Again

For the second time in as many weeks, the U.S. military has rescued distressed Iranian sailors, despite the extremely high tensions between the two nations.

According to the Navy's account, at about 3 a.m. local time an American Coast Guard patrol boat in the north Persian Gulf was hailed by flares and flashlights from an Iranian cargo ship whose engine room was flooding. Six Iranians were rescued from the ship, fed halal meals in accordance with Islamic law, and later taken to shore.

"Saving lives is the last thing you expect to do at [3 a.m.] while patrolling in the Northern Arabian Gulf, but being in the Coast Guard, that's what we are trained to do," Boatswain Mate 2nd Class Emily Poole said in a statement by the Navy, using an alternate designation for the Persian Gulf.

Last week, the U.S. Navy rescued more than a dozen Iranian sailors who had been held hostage by pirates in the Arabian Sea for weeks.

Wasn't there a recent report in Indian media also, with a pic of an IN chopper rescuing Iranian military men in camouflage?