India selects Typhoon & Rafale for MMRCA shortlist - Part 3

shukla · Post by **shukla** » 14 Jan 2012 17:23

No decision yet for $11 bn India fighter jet deal
Economic Times

India has no timetable for the hotly awaited decision to award its $11 billion fighter jet deal, a defence ministry official said on Friday, and he denied reports that the government had contacted the constructors.

"We don't know when the announcement is going to happen, so there is no point speculating when it will happen," the official, who did not wish to be named, told Reuters

The official said that no representative of any company had been called by the government

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 Jan 2012 17:33

Is this going to end up like the artillery saga

member_22516 · Post by **member_22516** » 14 Jan 2012 21:01

krishnan wrote:Is this going to end up like the artillery saga

I guess that decision is hard to take, but waiting for it is harder for our nerves !

If price is far too much expensive, let's cancel it and put the money in extra Paf-Ka fighters or co-development of Tejas weapon system, or Kaveri engines, or missiles.
If price is affordable, let's choose one of the 2 bidders and begin negociations.
But truth must be in between... And many points are weighing in the balance : raw price, price for 30 yrs maintenance, operational capabilities, offsets, industrial benefits, political forces.
Just have to wait..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Jan 2012 23:32

The danger of canceling will be service and bureaucrats will demand MRCA features in LCA and delay it further. So they might have to stick to how many planes can be bought for the original alloaction and the rest as option to be made locally to reduce the at least the assembly and some sub systems costs.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 Jan 2012 00:04

No.. that should be denied.. demanding MRCA features in LCA is meaningless and futile. They should look at AMCA for that.

I would ask the service and bureaucrats to invest heavily in home grown Kaveri 100kN, all pure sudh desi ingredients. Spend billions there is healthy for the future, and make sure GTRE is reorged before that, else only for the pockets of middlemen.

Another area of impetus need is AESA and MMR radar.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jan 2012 00:09

All it takes is one ministry of fnance minion to make a file notinng and it will become the new standard to be met. There will be no one to overrule such a noting. It has happened time and again. The biggest obstacle is not exteral enemies but internal sabotuers lnside the establishment.

Has anyone held Renuka Choudary accountable for the cancellation of the Denel contract after it was signed? Or AKA for the many things he refused to keep his image clean while the military force modernization suffers?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 Jan 2012 00:19

So for chippanda club to strike India, they don't need missiles, aircraft or weapons. All they need is few clouts within MoF, as MoF > MoD. The structure is so open and friendly for corruption, and this is the easiest way to attack India. Cheap and Best solution for them.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 15 Jan 2012 01:26

ramana wrote:The danger of canceling will be service and bureaucrats will demand MRCA features in LCA and delay it further. So they might have to stick to how many planes can be bought for the original alloaction and the rest as option to be made locally to reduce the at least the assembly and some sub systems costs.

Well the services don't have the luxury any more to screw with the LCA, esp. if the MRCA gets cancelled. Or God forbid, they go for cheaper Roosie fighters - MiG-35. Ideally, the circus will be put to an end, $s will be instead invested in getting LCA in quickly, and larger numbers, greater emphasis on Pakfa and AMCA, and for the very short term (next 2 years) - a sqd or so of either Qatari M2ks, MiG-29Ms/SMTs, Flankers.

By 2014, at least one sqd of LCA mk1 should be inducted. Followed by one more mk1 sqd and then mk2s.

member_22516 · Post by **member_22516** » 15 Jan 2012 02:08

What about the option of mmrca cancellation and instead buying the m2000-9 from UAE if they eventually buy the french Rafale ? HAL could implement m2k standard and IAF would have 111 m2s.
But in that case there wouldn't be the transfer of technology that mmrca could secure.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 Jan 2012 03:09

If Israel is willing to sell of all their F16s when they get to replace them with JSFs, we could perhaps get them with enhanced the 2052 walas, at much cheaper rates. Of course, it would be still an unkill issue.

The faster we get our own Kaveri and AESA MMR, the better you would see the world looking towards providing cheaper solutions to us, to just kill home grown products.

Roperia · Post by **Roperia** » 15 Jan 2012 05:35

I'm quite disappointed to see people suggesting, from the last few days. that India should go for second hand F-16s or Mirage 2000s or something on those lines.

On top of suggesting that IAF should be content with little older airframes. there seems to be a tendency on going backwords on the initial idea behind MRCA of buying Mirage 2000-5.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 15 Jan 2012 07:33

krishnan wrote:Is this going to end up like the artillery saga

Ah the first sign of pre-exam results panic!

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Jan 2012 07:58

This the most dangerous point in the entire saga of the deal.Innumerable vested interests will be hard at work,leveraging,perhaps even blackmailing decision-makers into tilting towards them.The "losers" will also be exceptionally busy,as their agents-who have lost out on lucrative commissions,will be busy feeding them with whatever scraps of info they can lay their hands on so as to sabotage the deal on issues of costs,etc. and try and re-emerge through the back door.The frantic lobbying,etc. will be similar to that of an Olympic venue vote.A good time to be an equivalent of one of the IOC members.What we haven't seen though are the personal appearances of Sarko,Cameron and Merkel,but one is sure that their reps over here and their spooks will be busy burning the midnight candle.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Jan 2012 08:12

Vayu Magazine has a few articles of interest to this thread here:

http://www.vayuaerospace.in/selected_articles.htm

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Jan 2012 08:50

Tx. Ramanna,The feature on the key reqs. for the MMRCA seem to concentrate it on being a "medium" sized fighter,to fit in between our heavy Flankers and future FGFAs and LCAs.The Gripen was mentioned as being closest to the IAF's requirements.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 15 Jan 2012 09:25

Delay or cancellation?

Cash crunch hits defence shopping
TIMES NEWS NETWORK

New Delhi: Faced with a deteriorating fiscal situation, the Centre is believed to be going slow in clearing big-ticket defence purchases in the final quarter of the financial year.
Sources said a slew of large orders scheduled for clearance between January and March may not be given clearance.
North Block has returned the file for the second phase of military modernization along the Chinese border with several queries. The second phase involves a total commitment of Rs 65,000 crore over the next five years, including 90,000 new recruits as soldiers.
On the Navy front, the ministry has returned the proposal on the second phase of Karwar port development estimated at about Rs 13,000 crore.
The Air Force’s proposal for acquiring Basic Trainer Aircraft has been red-flagged by the finance ministry.
According to a Cabinet member, these were because of the tenuous fiscal situation.

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ ... wMode=HTML

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 15 Jan 2012 10:08

These are critical decisions.The basic trainer is an absolute because we've had rookie pilots killed because of the absence of such.We simply have NO alternative.I would say that this is the most urgent of all.Then where will the IN base its warships and subs? In crowded Bombay,now in range of Paki attacks and where a collision sank one of our frigates last year,desperate to decongest? The extra troops on the Chinese border are the bare neccessity to prevent a "hostile takeover" of Ar.Pr.by the Chinese.The MMRCA deal has been flogged to death here, so there is no mention of the IAF's urgent need for it.I am sure the GOI/FM can find the money if they only use 3rd degree methods upon Raja,Kalmadi and co.,or even just ask the good doctor Singh where the loot of billions has all gone!

It begins to look like that Russian who was earlier quoted at MAKS knows more about the goings on within the MOD than many of us .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Jan 2012 10:35

the only way out seems to be make the delivery period longer and stagger the payments over a longer time in tune with deliveries...kind of like people pay the builder a installment once each floor slab is constructed from foundation upward.

another option is cut the purchase number by 25-33% and make do. the host of munitions needed - amraam/mica, paveway4, jsow, range extention wing kits, CBUs, AASM/SDB are all extra and have to also be paid for on the side.

rajanb · Post by **rajanb** » 15 Jan 2012 11:33

I am really shocked by the tardiness of babudom. They seem to have lost it when it comes to financial forecasting and planning. With every year the MMRCA progressed, they should have adjusted the forex rate to reflect current years $. And kept in step with the evaluation so as to keep the financial forecast accurate.

Also, kept aside the monies, since in the case of MMRCA, there were $10B being bandied about as the budgeted price.

The norm for payment is an upfront advance of x% and then y% on delivery and the remaining z% on acceptance. So the now $20B being bandied about would be something we would have been disbursing over years, in any case.

The only way out would be, therefore, reduce the # of a/c in the first order. If at all the babus think it is a priority. Also, I would think that under the circumstances if we go ahead with the purchase then L2 would be definitely a no go.

Considering the Air Chief made a statement in early December about the impending announcement, I still have hopes it will be announced.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 15 Jan 2012 12:06

so critical defence acquisitions are put on hold bcoz of financial mismanagement in the form of subsidy based re-election support programmes. so for dynastic politics to continue we have to compromise on defence, excellent.

The AESA acquisition from the MMRCA deal is our gateway to miniaturized high performance AESA technology, so we are effectively cutting that off as well if even the mmrca is put on hold.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 15 Jan 2012 12:26

Basic Trainer is a must must necessity. Spending billions on Mica and Mirage upgrades and prioritizing it over Basic Trainer really kicks me off. Its the highest level of mis-management I have seen in any GoI. I don't know who or what advises them on their decisions. Its really a

state of affairs in mutual understanding in various departments of GoI.

As of MMRCA, I have stopped thinking abt it anymore. It will happen when it will happen if at all it happens.

VinayG · Post by **VinayG** » 15 Jan 2012 14:20

SagarAg wrote:Basic Trainer is a must must necessity. Spending billions on Mica and Mirage upgrades and prioritizing it over Basic Trainer really kicks me off. Its the highest level of mis-management I have seen in any GoI. I don't know who or what advises them on their decisions. Its really a state of affairs in mutual understanding in various departments of GoI.

As of MMRCA, I have stopped thinking abt it anymore. It will happen when it will happen if at all it happens.

sagar it is always the big bloody " IF" they could have managed it properly , i wonder they got money for an uber expensive mirage upgrade deal but none for the important ones. in my view they should have given the up gradation process to our good old friends in ISRAEL well unless if they want to keep everyone happy which looks like one . so the lagging looks like more than a babu pockets aren't filled yet for the above deals to materalise just my 2 cents

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 17:55

VinayG wrote:i wonder they got money for an uber expensive mirage upgrade deal but none for the important ones.

The Mirage remains one of our premier nuclear strike aircraft. It will have priority over MMRCA or the basic trainers, no?

Oh by the way, Gripen anyone?

VinayG · Post by **VinayG** » 15 Jan 2012 18:30

Badar wrote:
VinayG wrote:i wonder they got money for an uber expensive mirage upgrade deal but none for the important ones.
The Mirage remains one of our premier nuclear strike aircraft. It will have priority over MMRCA or the basic trainers, no?

Oh by the way, Gripen anyone?

agree with you Badar But In the absence of a basic trainer, rookie pilots are learning their basic flying lessons on jet aircraft. In a normal training course, rookies are expected to learn on basic trainers before getting into the cockpits of more complex jets and also our babus should have told the chiefs about it mainly regarding availability of funds before going for the trainer . Our procurement processes are becoming a joke now a days we go for it then we hit a block that's what is happening now MMRCA god knows when they will announce it, trainers no idea

all i can say is one of the worst case of project management by our babus

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 15 Jan 2012 19:07

Badar wrote:
VinayG wrote:i wonder they got money for an uber expensive mirage upgrade deal but none for the important ones.
The Mirage remains one of our premier nuclear strike aircraft. It will have priority over MMRCA or the basic trainers, no?

Oh by the way, Gripen anyone?

Prioritizing up-gradation of Mirages over Basic Trainer is a strict no no for me. Mirages still can deliver nuclear bombs to the target areas. It is not as if they are unable to do it right now. Its the basic fundamentals at the training that makes Ace pilots. Technologies change over time but the basic fundas remain the same and we need to provide our pilots with the best of the best in the world. Basic trainer is like the root of it i.e the strength on which the pilots further develop their skills.

We have to set our priorities right. Really its getting out of hand and over the head.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 15 Jan 2012 19:36

If the trainer deal did in fact get cancelled(or stalled) because of the financial situation then I think the MRCA is pretty much dead. Reducing the numbers too wont help because that would mean an increase in per unit cost and a down grade on the ToT/Industrial package. I think the IAF will find it hard to justify this deal to the bean counters. The MoF wont have to ask absurd questions like "will the threat persist after two years?" to nix this one.

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 15 Jan 2012 20:11

Abhik,

That would mean MinFin having a veto power over MinDef in policy matters. Apart from the propriety of one ministry questioning another can you imagine one cabinet minister allowing another to question his policy?

The DefSec and FinSec are equals as are all Secretary level babus. There would be rioting in North Block and South Block if the govt. even suggested allowing such a thing.

No, MinFin has to find the money or go back to the Cabinet Committee on Security which approved the acquisition and request them for concensus on canceling the deal on financial grounds. It can grind out or extend the financial negotiations literally 'forever', but MinFin CANNOT cancel the deal or question MinDef about the need for the aircraft itself.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 15 Jan 2012 21:37

Badar wrote:Oh by the way, Gripen anyone?

No thanks, rather see the monies go into the Tejas. The Gripen will likely make the IAF orphan the LCA.

Yogi_G wrote:The AESA acquisition from the MMRCA deal is our gateway to miniaturized high performance AESA technology, so we are effectively cutting that off as well if even the mmrca is put on hold.

Not necessarily - the Pakfa and MKI upgrade programs with the Roosies along with the tie up with ELta could see India getting such technology irrespective of the MRCA deal. Technologically, this deal offers India very little imvho. Engine tech is being gained via the Snecma-Kaveri. Radarwise, a JV with Elta is not improbable, especially after the synergies via the PHalcons, Greenpine, MFStar. Plus, the experience gained by collaborating with the Russians should be paying off by now.

I for one would not be too unhappy if this deal got the axe - utterly bakwas. Rather see JVs with big houses such as THales, Mbda, Elta , GE, Snecma etc to get the Tejas Mk.2 as good or better than the Gripen NG. I still see little wisdom in gaining a late Gen 4 a/c at this hour, which coincides with the acquisition of similar tech via the MKI, better tech via the Pakfa and an opportunity to develop similar levels of tech inhouse via the LCA and AMCA.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 21:50

Our procurement processes are becoming a joke now a days ... one of the worst case of project management by our babus

VinayG, unfortunately even by this metric we fall much behind the leaders US, UK etc. Trust me they are quite spectacular.

Prioritizing up-gradation of Mirages over Basic Trainer is a strict no no for me. Mirages still can deliver nuclear bombs to the target areas. It is not as if they are unable to do it right now.

SagarAg, Mirages can probably do decently at penetration strike today, but the next 15 years? They need to be upgraded.

In an ideal world we would have both trainers and strike aircraft. This is evidently not an ideal world. Two files come to a babu (uniformed babu, safari suit babu, nehru topi babu doesn't matter) for approval. If you don't sign one you lose dozen young boys an year. If you don't sign the other the credibility of the most reliable leg of the nuclear dyad gets called into question. Guess which gets signed and approved pronto?

Dassault knew this, thats why "suli par chada kar paise liye" and we paid.

we need to provide our pilots with the best of the best in the world.

Why? Something adequate to meet the modest needs is more than enough.

Really its getting out of hand and over the head.

The real failure is why we don't have ADA designed and HAL manufactured trainers in large numbers already. Who failed? Air Marshals who should have set the ball rolling and provided the impetus in time? Politicians who should have set the policy and allocated funds? Scientists at ADA who should have designed a viable craft within our technological means? Engineers at HAL who should have executed those designs? Civil Service Babus who guided the whole process end to end?

It's a Basic Trainer ffs!

I think the MRCA is pretty much dead.

Whoah!

That would mean MinFin having a veto power over MinDef in policy matters.

umm, he does. Happens the world over all the time. Power shifts from one to another all the time. In times of security crises DefMin typically get to call the shots (within reason) and in other times (like the current economic clime) the FinMin is the bossman.

Apart from the propriety of one ministry questioning another can you imagine one cabinet minister allowing another to question his policy?

Yes, it's called discussion, argument, consensus. DefMin can't do anything of import without finMin and the external affairs boys giving the OK. It's the other way around too.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 15 Jan 2012 22:02

well nice wake up for all the people (politicians, babus and snr military ) to start more aggressive local plans.

For a time it became a joke with even small arms being ordered in large numbers

Speed up whatever is needed for LCA , if pvt industry needs to be brought in with incentives do so.

The priorities are

arty
sams
LCA

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 22:08

Cain Marko wrote:No thanks, rather see the monies go into the Tejas. The Gripen will likely make the IAF orphan the LCA.

Why?

Why is there no one to kick IAF babu's ass and make them take bitter medicine? Everyone else other than India seems to manage this. Why is India so special here?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Jan 2012 22:13

MMRCA is not dead. Perhaps in THIS form it is.

Besides the babudom, the two vendors too deserve some blame. It all started at $8 billion. The creep to around $11 billion can be attributed to babudom. But the $15+ billion is clearly a vendor based creep. IF this deal is scraped - and I for one certainly hope it is (not worth as fillers) - these two vendors deserve it.

Since the IAF still will need fillers, more PAK-FAs is an option. IF going the US route I trust a F-15 deal is a must (JSF - I just do not think ti fits Indian plans - dunno).

And, of course MCA (not so much LCA - I still consider the LCA to be more of a top-of-the-line tech demo).

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 15 Jan 2012 22:40

Badar wrote:VinayG, unfortunately even by this metric we fall much behind the leaders US, UK etc. Trust me they are quite spectacular.

Very well said. The Indian system moves slowly but at the same time is less prone to making monumental blunders, like the early retirement of workhorse jets that weren't 'cutting edge' anymore, a massive military overexpansion that left a recession hit govt. on the hook for about $100 billion over 10 years, and just plain absurdities like the Nimrod MRA4 disaster. Even the much hyped Concorde jet was a failure in the final analysis. The US too has a long, illustrious and expensive history of cancelled programs, like the RAH-66 Commanche ($7 billion for two prototypes). The only difference being that the Americans treat them as the cost of doing business rather than failed ventures. The Indian elephant (or water buffalo, take your pick) moves slowly but it doesn't trip.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 15 Jan 2012 22:50

Shalav wrote:Abhik,

That would mean MinFin having a veto power over MinDef in policy matters. Apart from the propriety of one ministry questioning another can you imagine one cabinet minister allowing another to question his policy?

The DefSec and FinSec are equals as are all Secretary level babus. There would be rioting in North Block and South Block if the govt. even suggested allowing such a thing.

No, MinFin has to find the money or go back to the Cabinet Committee on Security which approved the acquisition and request them for concensus on canceling the deal on financial grounds. It can grind out or extend the financial negotiations literally 'forever', but MinFin CANNOT cancel the deal or question MinDef about the need for the aircraft itself.

I'll admit I don't know exactly how these things work but the A-330 tanker deal earlier was cancelled due to the FinMin AFAIK.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 23:13

NRao wrote:Since the IAF still will need fillers...

We can't talk of "fillers" and then talk of inducting Rafales and Eurofighters or PAF-FA or F-35 or F-15s. These are premier top of the line and top dollar fighters. If we want fillers we should be talking about LCA, JF-17 or as the upper limit JAS.39.

IAF started out in the middle ages saying our Fishbeds lifetimes are done, we need something fast and cheap to fill up the alarmingly falling squadron numbers. And they escalated the requirements until none other than the ultra expensive and ultra sophisticated aircraft were good enough, that too projected future variants, not existing ready-to-go designs. Now when the time comes to pay the piper the hill is too steep to climb. IAF has no one to blame but themselves. They will most likely get the MMRCA, but they will have to pay by giving up something else. Tankers? Follow on AWACS? Elint? Jammers? Satellite fleet?Fleet Readiness? Who knows?

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 23:14

VivS, if you haven't see it, you might enjoy this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6h8i8wrajA

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 15 Jan 2012 23:30

Badar,

So you are saying that the Finance Minister who sits on the CCS along with the Defence Minister and the Prime Minister approves the need to purchase something as a member of the CCS can subsequently then allow his ministry to cancel the same deal! It does not make sense at all.

FinMin can object on procedural grounds, such as trials etc. The time to object on ability to fund or need based grounds would be at the CCS level not after approval. Cancellation would still require both ministers sitting in a CCS meeting to agree after approval is granted.

Abhik,

See above. AFAIR the A330 deal was cancelled based on objections due to insufficient competition since the IL 78 was never evaluated. The approval for new tankers is still valid, the exact airframes are yet to be finalised.

Badar · Post by **Badar** » 15 Jan 2012 23:52

Shavlav, A lot can happen financially since the original approval and the actual purchase.

Second, if FinMin wants to torpedo a project as too expensive then he does it. To justify it some minion comes up with some procedural excuse. The procedural excuse is an excuse and not the cause, the cause remains that the FinMin can no longer justify that expense against other priorities. The procedural exception just saves face all around, but everyone knows whats happened and why.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 15 Jan 2012 23:55

Yogi_G wrote:The AESA acquisition from the MMRCA deal is our gateway to miniaturized high performance AESA technology, so we are effectively cutting that off as well if even the mmrca is put on hold.

Cain Marko wrote:Not necessarily - the Pakfa and MKI upgrade programs with the Roosies along with the tie up with ELta could see India getting such technology irrespective of the MRCA deal.

Cain ji,there was a reason I put in "high performance",the Russians may rule the roost in PESA but they are starters in AESA tech and cannot match the number of T/R modules the west puts into a given space, with unkil leading the way, not to talk of efficiency of these individual modules.If i remember right tere was talk of quality issues with the t/r modules delivered which seem to have been rectified only now.if we get Roosi tech the whole point of getting up to date western tech is lost which we hoped to acquire through MMRCA.

And about elta,with all the contrasting info coming in of cooperation and then showstoppers put in by yanks, its a big risk betting on it. I wouldnt.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Jan 2012 00:48

NRao wrote:MMRCA is not dead. Perhaps in THIS form it is.

Besides the babudom, the two vendors too deserve some blame. It all started at $8 billion. The creep to around $11 billion can be attributed to babudom. But the $15+ billion is clearly a vendor based creep. IF this deal is scraped - and I for one certainly hope it is (not worth as fillers) - these two vendors deserve it.

Since the IAF still will need fillers, more PAK-FAs is an option. IF going the US route I trust a F-15 deal is a must (JSF - I just do not think ti fits Indian plans - dunno).

And, of course MCA (not so much LCA - I still consider the LCA to be more of a top-of-the-line tech demo).

I agree. If there is indeed much concern about the financial crunch, and further significant devaluation of the Rupee, then the F-18E/F/G at $50 million a piece makes a lot of sense - or buying the entire F-16 factory from Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth, Texas.
My personal preference is the F-18 E/F/G as Boeing *has proven* it can deliver on time and on price.