PRC Economy - New Reflections : Dec 15 2011

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Jun 2012 22:01

If NoKo decide to spurn China for the US+SoKo combine, there'll be a regime change in Pyongyang the next morning scripted by Beijing, with another fresh line of beloved leaders being initiated, if not just a military junta.

NoKo under the US umbrella would be fantastic news for India (and for Taiwan) - it would direct Chinese political and military energy into the northeast Bohai Sea area for a long time.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 18 Jun 2012 22:33

It always baffles me that China is comfortable with demented, unstable, nuclear states on its border but not prosperous liberal democracies. It has trouble with every single liberal democracy on its border and around the world. Tells one a lot, Nah!

wong · Post by **wong** » 18 Jun 2012 23:08

Suraj wrote:If NoKo decide to spurn China for the US+SoKo combine, there'll be a regime change in Pyongyang the next morning scripted by Beijing, with another fresh line of beloved leaders being initiated, if not just a military junta.

NoKo under the US umbrella would be fantastic news for India (and for Taiwan) - it would direct Chinese political and military energy into the northeast Bohai Sea area for a long time.

Suraj, Kim Il-Sung exiled/executed the pro-China, Yunan faction in the Korean Worker'sParty in 1958. China has been trying to persuade North Korea to reform for at least a decade to no avail.

I think a reformed North Korea would be huge for the economies of the entire region. Many Chinese think tanks are beginning to think this way. Simply put, North Korea in its present state, is just bad for business.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 18 Jun 2012 23:27

wong, if China wanted NoKo to reform it will reform; when an 800lb gorilla asks a mouse to jump, it answers 'how high'. 'China has been trying to persuade NoKo to reform' sounds nice and soothing, and the kind of drivel that gets peddled on economist or foreignpolicy.com to convince the west accordingly. Something on the lines of 'Pakistan had been trying to persuade Bin Laden to wear an Uncle Sam outfit and eat apple pie when Team 6 parachuted in'.

The Kim dynasty has been anachronistic for about half a century now. NoKo is clearly a cats paw to keep Japan and SoKo on their toes, and give China avenues to negotiate, while peddling the faux hapless 'we've been trying to convince Kim onlee' spiel.

Like I said, I would love to see NoKo become a US client state. That would be a fantastic strategic change in the East Asian quadrant, and would be welcomed with open arms in New Delhi and Taipei (at least in the Pan Green circles). It would keep Beijing in turmoil for a long time, and affect the composition and priorities of the PSC.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Jun 2012 00:18

Theo_Fidel wrote:It always baffles me that China is comfortable with demented, unstable, nuclear states on its border but not prosperous liberal democracies. It has trouble with every single liberal democracy on its border and around the world. Tells one a lot, Nah!

It's about control. The neighborhood that China is immediately interested in is the Indian subcontinent, Japan, Korea, Russia. To control this area, they need unstable states as neighbors to their adversaries. If that means, owing to geographical constraints, that these unstable states also have to be China's neighbors, then so be it. Once they get India/Russia/Japan/S. Korea/Vietnam to fall in line with their worldview, and focus on farther corners of the globe, they will then join up with dictators in Africa/S. America etc. and try and promote democracy in the neighborhood of China.

Compare and contrast with the USA, which is secure in its neighborhood. So they try and get Mexico to be stable and democratic. However, for the rest of the world, the US has a different policy - they've been far more comfortable dealing with rogue states, than genuine democracies. Democracies are subject to political winds. Rogue states tend to remain in the control of whatever dictator is able to grab power. So if you ensure that this dictator is your man, you've got it made for the lifetime of the dictator.

I'm sure you know all this - I'm not really lecturing you. I'm a noob in geopolitics myself. Just pointing it out for readers/lurkers who may be less clued in than I am, even. China and the US are both manipulative states, which are striving to grab the lion's share of the world's resources for themselves, and maybe their cronies. They truly deserve each other.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Jun 2012 01:04

Very good points sudarshan. Using a faux unstable nuclear power is an excellent approach on PRCs part to deal with stable, reasonable democratic states. It lets them work behind the scenes manipulating and forcing the democratic states to devote time and energy to handling the craziness of the loose cannon state, while appearing enlightened and moderate themselves.

That NoKo is clearly a PRC client can be seen from the fact that they NEVER act against PRC. They can go shoot some pro-PRC communists, but then PRC was willing to lose a million grunts in Korea back in 1950-53, so they don't exactly value life, as wong readily admits. All NoKo actions have been against Japan and SoKo - sinking ships, firing missiles, the works.

NoKo can be seen to be working against PRC when they start attacking and sinking PLAN vessels and firing No Dongs at Beijing and Tianjin. Then we can all agree that NoKo is no longer in the PRC orbit... for the few moments before the PRC vaporises them.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Jun 2012 01:26

Sudarshan,

Thanx for explaining in detail what some of us suspect but can rarely find explicit evidence for.
----------------------------------------------

Continuing on the bafflement theme, the #1 beneficiary of the current peace and calm is Panda itself. Yet it goes out of its way to destroy peace through every demented means possible.

Wong, is merely beating out the CPC 'peaceful rise' party line in an attempt to lull/anesthetize us during the attack..

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 19 Jun 2012 01:57

This whole discussion on DPR-Korea is only for the purpose of "re"-"re-educating" chinese commies and pinkos reading this thread.

It is obvious to any sane individual that the chance of PRC wanting DPR-Korea to become a liberalized and stable state is about the same as the PRC wanting the Pawkee Nation to become stable and democratic. Either (or both) events would be disastrous to the CPC/PLA in their attempts to "contain" Bharat on one front and the USA-ROC-ROK-Japan combine on the other.

The PRC's support for DPR-Korea and the Pawkee Nation are due to very "base" instincts of fear and insecurity. Both the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, already nearly-"lost causes" for the PLA, will be forever freed from the communist chinese menace. Akhand Bharat - stretching from the Persian Gulf to Indonesia and from Tibet to Antarctica - will only be accelerated.

Mafias and goons like the CPC/PLA are not capable of being world leaders, and never will be. So as the poster Chola keeps repeating, we in Bharat wish the CPC and PLA a long and "successful" innings in running down China and bankrupting it economically, culturally, and politically.

Have a great day,

Kishen Lal

wong · Post by **wong** » 19 Jun 2012 02:22

Suraj wrote: NoKo can be seen to be working against PRC when they start attacking and sinking PLAN vessels and firing No Dongs at Beijing and Tianjin. Then we can all agree that NoKo is no longer in the PRC orbit... for the few moments before the PRC vaporises them.

Not a good test. NoKo doesn't attack the US either even though they are technically at war. I believe the last time was in 1976 during the axe incident. It attacks South Korea because it knows it can get away with it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axe_murder_incident

You'll find that North Korea is crazy, but not crazy enough to attack either China or the US. It doesn't mean either country controls North Korea.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 19 Jun 2012 02:34

wong wrote:
Please check the prices your country pays for things like the C17s. They are the highest in the world. Higher than rich countries like Saudi Arabia. Pakistan gets the "friend price" or free (military aid). India pays the rip-off price.

The world wants good stuff, they pay a good price and buy it from its makers. Not do weird creepy stuff like your military does.

Now Saudi Arabia did not get a neat little testing facility did it? You need to read a bit more about Indian defense offsets policies, before getting excited for pakis and waiting like a beggar-kingpin who goes through the days' pickings that the pakis bring in.

It surprises me that the Indian commoner is so quick to abandon Rajat, a man that has done so much for India. Hell, I wish there was a Chinese Rajat that has personally channeled billions of business and humanitarian dollars to China. At least your Indian elites and tycoons agrees with me and knows Rajat's immense contributions to India.

Shree Rajat Gupta is considered a good person by most who know him, so when he has done his time, he will still have friends. But that has nothing to do with what he does in his official capacity. It has been found by the US justice system that Shree Rajat Gupta agreed to play by certain rules, but did not. It does not matter if he adopted Hello Kitty from an orphanage or lined the pockets of everyone from Raisina Hill to Capitol Hill. He is answerable if he breached contracts, because he is supposed to know better. Does not matter who supports him, unlike in your country.

Indian commoner can discern such nuances, when it comes to folks who got convicted, but still bounced back and redeemed themselves. No gulag crap or eternal damnation like poor Shree Zhao Ziyang.

As for your belaboring about "Rajat Gupta invented Indian IT". sure.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Jun 2012 02:37

And yet, when there's a crisis in the peninsula, Pyongyang goes to Beijing for consultations, not Washington DC. Just the recent 'ICBM's (painted dummies though) of theirs were demoed upon Chinese TELARs. Of course, China predictably claimed they had no idea it would be used for military purposes

I've got to hand it to China - they've got a very cool con job going on in DPRK, telling the west they're actually trying to get Pyongyang to reform. Either that or the west nods and laughs at the whole notion behind closed doors.

Having dealt with one client of yours to our west, we're about the last people you can convince they Pyongyang isn't Beijing's puppet on a chain. Too much evidence to the contrary.

wong · Post by **wong** » 19 Jun 2012 02:43

C'mon Suraj, historically, Pakistan has been as much (if not more) a US client than a Chinese client state. Together they defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan and helped bring an end to the cold war.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Jun 2012 02:51

wong wrote:C'mon Suraj, historically, Pakistan has been as much (if not more) a US client than a Chinese client state. Together they defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan and helped bring an end to the cold war.

1) The US didn't supply Pak with nuclear weapons and India-specific missiles, China did
2) The US doesn't have foot-soldiers in Gilgit-Baltistan, China does

Much more can be added to this list. But it's true that Pak is much beholden to the US - it was so sweet, that coalition they had going to defeat the Soviets and establish democracy and brotherly love (read any way you please) in Afghanistan. Also, nice to hear a Chinese admit that Pak is a Chinese client state (if only indirectly).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Jun 2012 02:58

Pakistan allies with anyone who:
* Is Islamic (KSA)
* a rival of India (PRC, US during cold war)
* hands them $$ and weapons (PRC, US)
Who is more or less anything is a matter of the circumstances of the moment.

The DPRK regime exists because of Beijing, period. They serve the strategic buffer of keeping the US away from the border of China. The only reason they don't act against the US directly is that there's an ocean separating the two - by attacking SoKo or Japan they're attacking US interests. There's nothing even close to the DMZ on the PRC/DPRK border.

It is very much in India's interests to see the current DPRK fatso choke on his kimchi and for the US to walk in with SoKo and unify it into a pro-US entity. In one stroke it would put the US/Korean defence positions in a zone covering an arc that encompasses Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Qingdao and a whole bunch of northern Chinese cities, in addition to the ability to monitor the Yellow Sea and East China Sea better.

It would be very interesting to see how much PRC paid the Philippine senate to vote against ratifying the extension of the Subic Bay deal with USN in 1992; the Aquinos were strongly pro-extension. I wouldn't be surprised if the current Philippine regime invites the US back to Subic and Clark bases.

member_20810 · Post by **member_20810** » 19 Jun 2012 03:04

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang ... uilding-2/

From the above article in forbes
World's tallest building to come up in Changsha.

originally planned a 666-meter skyscrapper, but the local government wanted the world’s tallest. That’s a dead giveaway politics are distorting the economics of the project.

Local politics and record-setting buildings don’t mix well in China. Zhuhai, the go-go city just north of the enclave of Macau, in 1992 wanted a private company to construct what would have then been the world’s tallest building. That magnificent project reached the third floor, when it stopped five years later due to a lack of funds.

And where would the money come from ?

As a part of Premier Wen Jiabao’s latest stimulus campaign, the State Council’s National Development and Reform Commission has been green lighting all sorts of uneconomic projects across the country, including, most infamously, two steel mills. The last thing China needs is another blast furnace, so Beijing might as well authorize something unique.

wong · Post by **wong** » 19 Jun 2012 03:05

sudarshan wrote:
1) The US didn't supply Pak with nuclear weapons and India-specific missiles, China did

AQ Khan is not Chinese. He was born in India (Bhopal). Dr. Khan supplied the North Koreans and also the Libyans. The Iranians will tell you that enrichment is the hard part. I can get package designs from the Internet.

member_20810 · Post by **member_20810** » 19 Jun 2012 03:14

wong wrote: AQ Khan is not Chinese. Mr. Khan supplied the North Koreans and also the Libyans. The Iranians will tell you that enrichment is the hard part. I can get package designs from the Internet.

Well sir,
According to this article in usnews, the pakistani bomb is "made in china". AQ khan was a metallurgist. May be pak needed someone to claim that he "fathered"the bomb.

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl ... lear-bombs

We believe that during Bhutto's term in office, the People's Republic of China tested Pakistan's first bomb for her in 1990.There are numerous reasons why we believe this to be true, including the design of the weapon and information gathered from discussions with Chinese nuclear experts. That's why the Pakistanis were so quick to respond to the Indian nuclear tests in 1998. It only took them two weeks and three days. When the Soviet Union took the United States by surprise with a test in 1961, it took the U.S. seventeen days to prepare and test, a device that had been on hand for years. The Pakistani response makes it clear that the gadget tested in May 1998 was a carefully engineered device in which they had great confidence.

wong · Post by **wong** » 19 Jun 2012 03:18

^^^
Pakistan had it ready for years. They decided long ago they would test when India tests.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Jun 2012 03:21

wong wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
1) The US didn't supply Pak with nuclear weapons and India-specific missiles, China did
AQ Khan is not Chinese. He was born in India (Bhopal). Dr. Khan supplied the North Koreans and also the Libyans. The Iranians will tell you that enrichment is the hard part. I can get package designs from the Internet.

Just had to get in another cheap shot, hadn't you

? What if AQ Khan was born in Bhopal, India? That's what partition was all about - Muslims born in India left for Pakistan, because they thought that's where their future lay. Their loyalty was to Pakistan - they had no control over their birthplace. Some insinuation, dude.

That way, every Pakistani is truly Indian - they were born in pre-partitioned India. You do know that Hitler was born in Austria, Stalin in Georgia (not Russia proper), Napoleon in Corsica? Many British colonial dudes were born in India.

Grow up, Wong.

member_20810 · Post by **member_20810** » 19 Jun 2012 03:23

wong wrote:^^^
Pakistan had it ready for years. They decided long ago they would test when India tests.

Now its OT, admins please delete my post if it does not fit in the PRC Economy thread.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 19 Jun 2012 03:31

Except that AQK's uranium devices tested within days of the Indian tests fizzled. It was the Pu devices from PRC that worked, 3 weeks later. Trucking them over from 2nd Artillery Corps stock takes a while, after all.

For giggles, I recommend telling AQK in his face that he is Indian. Many of us would pay good money to have a ringside view of the aftermath of you doing that.

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 19 Jun 2012 05:09

Of course the really big lie is this one....

Pakis can't even wipe their A$$ without permission and they apparently got the guts to arm NoKo.

wong wrote:blah blah blah ....Dr. Khan supplied the North Koreans and also the Libyans.

vina · Post by **vina** » 19 Jun 2012 06:01

Suraj wrote: I wouldn't be surprised if the current Philippine regime invites the US back to Subic and Clark bases.

Or if Vietnam invites the US back to Camh Ranh bay. I do think India should arm Taiwan and Vietnam with Brahmos equipped frigates and really give them sea denial capabilities against the PRC.

For Vietnam, even the truck mounted shore based Brahmos batteries would be fine. They can take out the PRC ships that are out in the disputed shoals without breaking a sweat.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 19 Jun 2012 06:58

A rash of chinese counterfeit goods worldwide:

http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=130381&page=1

These fake goods might just annoy you....or may kill you. Even the USA military is experiencing a problem with fake-azz items from china:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/china- ... /id/439958

"Commoners", beware!

KL

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 19 Jun 2012 08:18

Theo_Fidel wrote:Of course the really big lie is this one....

Pakis can't even wipe their A$$ without permission and they apparently got the guts to arm NoKo.

wong wrote:blah blah blah ....Dr. Khan supplied the North Koreans and also the Libyans.

our birather is trying the good ol' tamil trick of 'muzhu poosanikkai sothula maraikarathu' (hiding a full pumpkin in the rice).

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 19 Jun 2012 08:45

Gus wrote: our birather is trying the good ol' tamil trick of 'muzhu poosanikkai sothula maraikarathu' (hiding a full pumpkin in the rice).

Yes, you need multiple sets of eyes scanning each post to catch all the half-truths/untruths/mischaracterizations. A trick perfected by western propaganda machinery, starting with Goebbels (so far as I know - could be far older), and carried on by CNN/BBC, especially when reporting about unfriendly countries. China has also been subjected to western propaganda in this fashion, admittedly. But the Chinese are no strangers to the game.

The opponent exhausts him/herself trying to catch and expose all the lies. A little lie slips by unnoticed, then a bigger one - and before you know it, four or five lies have been established as the "truth," uncontested, through repetition. Then you build on that. The human mind is devious indeed in its devilish cunning.

Wasn't there news years ago, about N. Korean ships being held at Chennai port, en-route to Pak with contraband? And then the ring magnets (whose only industrial use was/is in uranium enrichment centrifuges) which were exposed on the KKH, heading by truck from China to Pak. The Chinese played a clever trick, by providing Pak with nuclear know-how, and NK with missile know-how, and then having them exchange technology among themselves, so that deniability would be enhanced. Now Wong is blithely mouthing the official line, that AQ Khan is the one who did all the proliferation, from Libya to Iran to NK. Which he (technically) did to a large extent, but the larger proliferation crime has gone mostly under the radar.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 19 Jun 2012 10:01

China Inc. buys LME (London Metals Exchange)
For a sec, I thought that the Chinese had bought LMU

.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Jun 2012 10:26

PRc is also buying slowly into the core of the german economy which is a few lakhs of medium sized cos that operate at world class level of tech.

a signature deal has been the cement mixer maker Putzmeister. the germans are ok because job retention and sales future is assured vs the london/NYC based outfits whose goal is just to asset strip and destroy cos to make a quick kill and move on like locusts. china is looking for technology and footprint and long term relationship with powerhouses like germany, not the next fat bonus to blow up on a mistress or ferrari.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Jun 2012 14:56

Any reason why Chinese keep huge Forex reserves running in trillion dollar , the figure is truly mind boggling.

One reason is to keep Yuan weak against dollar to make export comptetitive , the other is to perhaps buy assest globally and increase Chinese foot print ?

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 19 Jun 2012 21:19

Austin wrote:One reason is to keep Yuan weak against dollar to make export comptetitive , the other is to perhaps buy assest globally and increase Chinese foot print ?

Yes, but the desire to buy assets globally is usually frustrated/blocked because the chinese do not have the skills to manage these assets efficiently. Mostly restricted to buying natural resources from destitute African/Latin American countries.

KL

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 20 Jun 2012 06:09

Singha wrote:china is looking for technology and footprint and long term relationship with powerhouses like germany, not the next fat bonus to blow up on a mistress or ferrari.

What do you think the Indians are looking for ? Hoez and wheelz ?

Every fourth acquisition in Germany is from India
http://m.mydigitalfc.com/news/every-fou ... -india-429

Let's Buy Europe
http://m.mydigitalfc.com/news/let%E2%80 ... europe-431

Hear out what Cord Meier-Klodt, acting German ambassador in New Delhi, has to say: “India is now on top of emerging market investments in Germany. Every fourth acquisition in Germany is by an Indian.” A KPMG report is more specific: 27 per cent of all acquisitions in Germany carried out by an emerging market investor have Indian roots. Indian FDI in Germany at the end of August last year was ¤4.5 billion.

Now the pinkos and reds will probably show their concern for the "high prices" being paid by Indians for these investments/acquisitions.

Namaskar,

KL

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 20 Jun 2012 07:53

I'll let the image speak for itself...

vina · Post by **vina** » 20 Jun 2012 08:55

Theo_Fidel wrote:I'll let the image speak for itself...

You cheat!

. This is actually a photo from the Metro Construction in Bangalore on Kanakpura road!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Jun 2012 09:22

should give a heart attack to harbans sir.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 20 Jun 2012 09:46

Why is that pic in this thread ?

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 20 Jun 2012 10:34

Take a look at the tile roof folks. It doesn't matter where it is, but yes it is Andheri and the link was forwarded to me.
In that picture is captured the difference between our two approaches.

wrdos · Post by **wrdos** » 20 Jun 2012 11:53

Last time when I checked the thread, it was a Chinese Economy thread. Something changed? It is going to neither Chinese, nor economy now.

amit · Post by **amit** » 20 Jun 2012 13:00

^^^^^^

Some time ago a few of our Chinese drones (oops sorry, I mean guests) poohed the fact that Tata used Italian design expertise for its electric cars. We were also told that car design is something a second year design student could do etc. But lookie, lookie, what a marquee company from the world's biggest car market is doing:

Beijing Auto Luring Ferrari Designer For Chinese Daytona

Beijing Auto is among Chinese carmakers betting that hiring star designers will help burnish their brands and reverse a widening gap in market share led by General Motors Co. (GM) and Volkswagen AG. After making progress in recent years in reliability and vehicle safety, domestic automakers are increasingly turning their attention to branding.

Chinese brands’ share of sedan and compact-car sales fell to 27.5 percent in this year’s first five months from 31.4 percent a year earlier, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. None of the top 10 passenger-vehicle models by sales this year belonged to homegrown Chinese brands.

While Chinese automakers are making the right moves by attracting foreign designers, these highly paid imports can only do so much, said Greg E. Anderson, author of “Designated Drivers: How China Plans to Dominate the Global Auto Industry.”

“It would be as if Leonardo da Vinci were hired to teach a group of aspiring artists how to create art,” Anderson said. “He could never transfer the essence of how a naturally talented artist creates something like the Mona Lisa or the Last Supper.”

Many Chinese automakers give their designers as short as three to five months to come up with a new model design, compared with the more than 20 months that’s standard international practice, he said.

“What does that do?” said Wang, who helped set up the Tsinghua Automotive Design Center in 2003. “The first response for many Chinese designers is to go on the Internet and copy from BMW and Mercedes and hand in the work.”
The result is the proliferation of look-alike models. It’s also safest to provide new buyers something that’s known to sell, said Silvio Pietro Angori, chief executive officer of Cambiano, Italy-based Pininfarina.

wong · Post by **wong** » 20 Jun 2012 16:44

^^^^

Actually, I said it was a commodity skill and anybody with $2 mil could commission one of the 3/4 main Italian auto design houses. Thanks for proving my point!

-----------

Not a China decade, but Century....

http://live.wsj.com/video/von-furstenbe ... 4FA30.html

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 20 Jun 2012 20:03

^^^^^

This seems like some kind of a ladies afternoon gossip chat rather than anything substantive. Irrelevant BS.

Meanwhile your "chinese commoner" countrymen have plenty of wondelfur things to report to audiences on the US seminar circuit. Goes a far longer way in shaping people's impressions of china than your feeble attempts to paint a picture of the "chinese century":

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/world ... 1&ref=asia

Mr. Chen is enjoying his first chance in years to study and use the Internet without fear of arrests or beatings. But he is hardly serene. ....

He and his wife, Yuan Weijing, said they remained desperately worried about the harsh treatment of those they left behind in Shandong Province.
......

But he has seen no signs, he said, of an honest inquiry into what many experts call his blatantly illegal treatment over the years, retaliation for agitating on behalf of the disabled, farmers and women who were forced to have abortions.

Namaskar,

KL