Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

[Prem]

^ And in our enthusiasm for Pappi Jhappi we want to give the lot a Visa on Arrival while the rest of the world shuts their immigration counters to them.. with BD we have already gone much further..no VOA, but ration card, voter ID and passport on arrival anywhere..

VOA stamp or Seal of declaration stating Mirza Ghulm Ahmad of Qaddian is a True Prophet.

[Anujan]

X-posting from TSP dhaaga

Madrassah Math causes the need for GDP in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to take a large hit.

The size of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan’s economy will shrink by up to PKR 2.5 trillion, or roughly 10%of GDP :

Double-counting: GDP overestimated, may be slashed by 10%

The key line is this:

The budget deficit for the current fiscal, initially estimated to be around 6.5% of GDP, will soar to around 9% after the correction, said an official from the finance ministry.

Pakistan had fudged figures to show fiscal deficit better than it actually is to secure IMF's last tranche. There was this gem from long back:

http://tribune.com.pk/story/335268/econ ... mf-report/

Finance secretary changed in wake of IMF report

In its recent report on the state of the country’s economy, the IMF has unearthed that, in a bid to hide the real budget deficit, Pakistan’s expenditures were understated by Rs317 billion and revenues overstated by Rs215 billion.

When the IMF unearthed the errant figures Pakistan claimed that "The government provides only moral, political and diplomatic support to the finance ministry which cooked up the figures. The figures were cooked up by retired and rogue Finance secretary. Finance is a science of peace. Both IMF and Pakistan have people who calculate wrong. The lack of disbursement of IMF money is radicalizing the people in fiance, who attend madrassas and start practicing madrassa mathematics"

And oh, if the corrected GDP is 19 trillion PKR and it has been overstated by 2.5 trillion PKR, it is 13% overstatement, not "slashing by 10% of GDP" The article itself has madrassa math

[Prem]

I think we can safely guess PoaqNomoney some where between 130-150 Billion$ and Poaquplation 198 Million. There egg laying capacity is causing 2.7% annual growth in numbers of mouth to feed. This current year mark the beginning of their slow collapse.They are forced to open the trade with india which will suck all of their resources at faster pace while their Numbers increase. Few RAPEs will grow rich and fly away before APEs (Arabi Puttar Elites) get them.

[Anindya]

In the first page of this thread, SS has a long post with a mention of 3.1% to 3.3% as the actual population growth rate in Pakistan (source Business Recorder). So, the real population numbers may well be in excess of 200M.

[Theo_Fidel]

Theo i am not sure about the Baksheesh part but as far as remittances go, as per the latest figures last year India received $64 Billion and Pakistan got $12 Billion so per capita Pakistani remittances are not 2 to 3 times that of India.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ind ... 364431.ece

I meant in terms of per capita income. 12 billion of $150 Billion is larger than $64 Billion of $1.8 Trillion no.

Does that include the hawala?

IIRC Shortcut Aziz legalized the hawala trade by selling TSP rupees on the Gulf market. Most of TSP money travels through that route.

[Prem]

Poaqrail hai fail fail

The dwindling sustainability of Pakistan Railways (PR) continues to be of great concern to the pride of Pakistani people in general and causes a serious dent in the image of Pakistani management prowess in particular. While the PR operations shrink with each passing day, across the border in India, the Indian Railways in contrast is hailed as the largest national employer that not only posts a healthy yearly profit, but has also been successful in expanding and improving its services over time. ( Time for Lalu to Move to Lyalpur) A culture laden with dodgy deals, half-baked initiatives like those of the business train (good in theory, but poorly implemented), route privatisation, partial outsourcing to overcome glaring inefficiencies, and a complete lack of discipline that invariably leads to strikes, project delays, vandalism, theft and security breaches like the one we, unfortunately, saw at the Lahore railway station last week, are all elements that issue a stark warning that this great asset of the country is be being pushed to the brink of closure!
According to the recently announced Indian budget, their railways is set to expand annually by nearly Indian Rs1.50 lakh crore (whatever this mega number computes to as my maths has become weak by not being exposed to such figures in Pakistan and by the way, approximately double it to arrive at an equivalent number in Pakistani Rupees). It will become an even more productive revenue earner for the Indian exchequer by, in addition, paying a newly levied service tax from the new fiscal year. However, the Indian Railways management wants more and is still not satisfied with the announced pace of the expansion plan. They feel that the potential to grow is much more and they have with them concrete proposals, which can see the growth of their railways at double than what the Indian government has presently ascertained. Ironically, the debate at our end is instead about survival and curtailment with organisational

[Roperia]

Budget forecasts: Forex reserves to almost halve by June 2013

Next year’s fiscal forecasts for Pakistan are depressing at best.
...

According to the approved plan, the country’s gross official reserves may deplete to $8.24 billion by June 2013, which is 28%, or $3.2 billion, lower than what has been projected for close of this fiscal ending June 30. By this June, the plan states, gross official reserves will stand at $11.4 billion, which is $3.8 billion, or 25% lower than last June’s reserves level of $15.2 billion.

This drastic depletion, primarily because the country will have to repay a significant portion of the foreign debt, will have adverse implications for exchange rate that in return will fuel inflation due to increasing cost of imported goods.

...

Growth figures

For the next financial year, the government has set 4.3% economic growth target while inflation has been projected at 10.5% – the sixth consecutive year of double-digit inflation. The agriculture sector is expected to grow by 4.1%, industrial 3.9% and services 4.6%.

Low savings, investment


Savings and investments in the current fiscal slipped to the lowest level in the country’s history.
Investment as a proportion of GDP stands at 12.5% while it was expected to grow to 13.8% in the current fiscal. Next fiscal’s projected investment ratio is 13.2%.
Similarly, savings have slipped to their lowest level. Against every Rs100, the nation saved only Rs10.7 while the target was Rs13.2. The APCC has set 11.1% as savings target for next fiscal.

The Pakis are setting their GDP growth target too high for next year - 4.3%. This is their performance of the past 4 years, it averages less than 3% and hasn't touched 4%.



Source - Pakistan GDP Growth Rate

[Yogi_G]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

[Aditya_V]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

May be of the opportunity for to make a killing from the Sale of scrap metal from railway lines tracks, Wagons, engines, signals, railway station infrastructure no longer used/ needed.

[Yogi_G]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

May be of the opportunity for to make a killing from the Sale of scrap metal from railway lines tracks, Wagons, engines, signals, railway station infrastructure no longer used/ needed.

The Czechs are taking advantage of the fact that there is a detente between TSP and India which they can exploit by doing business with TSP. I would expect India would have reacted with anger at the Czechs if it were done say 1 year back.

[arun]

A full blown energy crisis unfolding in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan with 16 hour daily loadshedding:

PAC informed: 16-hour power loadshedding in last two weeks

The energy crisis has resulted in widespread riots across Pakistan occupied Punjab.

Editorial in the News:

Power riots

Things are not much better on the electricity load-shedding front in Sindh province:

Demos held against KESC

[Vinay_D]

50000 MW for 500 years

Differences between the members of Planning Commission on the fate of ‘Thar Coal Project’ may lead to jeopardise the pace of on-going development work, which is believed to be a vital indigenous resource to meet the energy requirements of the country.

Shahid Sattar, the Planning Commission (PC) Member (Energy), on Saturday told an international energy conference said the commission had conducted the audit of ‘Thar Coal Pilot Project’ and stopped release of funds because it was thought to be impracticable. “It’s not possible to produce 10 megawatt of electricity from the Thar Coal Project,” he said, adding Dr Samar Mubarakmand had failed in producing gas through the Thar Coal field. “Dr Samar’s coal gasification is a failure as the gas flamed only for four hours and then dropped off,” Shahid said, adding that the release of more funds for the pilot project would be ‘risky’.

However, Dr Samar, when contacted, negated Sattar’s opinion, saying Thar coal gas remained flaming for almost four months and if still someone couldn’t see it, then it was his fault. He added that the oil and commission mafia was a major hurdle in the project and Shahid never visited the site. The nuclear scientist also made it clear that underground gasification work had not failed, adding 100 MW of power production could be started immediately, if the govt released the necessary funds.

Dr Samar, who is also the PC’s Member Science and Technology, further said the government had released only $10 million so far against the allocated $115 million reserved for the pilot project after the work started some three years ago.

APP adds: In a statement issued from the CM’s House Karachi, Shahid Sattar rejected the media report attributed to him regarding the project. He had only said the efficacy of the project was yet to be determined.

[tejas]

2 hrs a day of power? How can you be sure you are facing Mecca when praying at night?

[Suraj]

Growth figures

For the next financial year, the government has set 4.3% economic growth target while inflation has been projected at 10.5% – the sixth consecutive year of double-digit inflation. The agriculture sector is expected to grow by 4.1%, industrial 3.9% and services 4.6%.

Low savings, investment


Savings and investments in the current fiscal slipped to the lowest level in the country’s history.
Investment as a proportion of GDP stands at 12.5% while it was expected to grow to 13.8% in the current fiscal. Next fiscal’s projected investment ratio is 13.2%.
Similarly, savings have slipped to their lowest level. Against every Rs100, the nation saved only Rs10.7 while the target was Rs13.2. The APCC has set 11.1% as savings target for next fiscal.

The Pakis are setting their GDP growth target too high for next year - 4.3%. This is their performance of the past 4 years, it averages less than 3% and hasn't touched 4%. [/url]

With investment/GDP of 12.5%, 4% GDP requires a hyper-efficient incremental capital output ratio of ~3. Assuming a more reasonable ICOR of 4.5, they'll have a medium term average GDP growth rate of ~2.7% . With a >2% population growth that amounts to essentially stagnant real per capita GDP growth. 12% investment/GDP is a shockingly low figure; I assumed their number would be in the high teens at least.

[arun]

Power shortfall widens: Exemption to textile sector withdrawn

[MurthyB]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

I think they think they won!

[anupmisra]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

The Czechs will need to be careful that the paki checks do not bounce.

[anupmisra]

Czech Republic interested to invest in rail sector

What the F is Czech republic doing in TSP?

I think they think they won!

Atleast the pakis got their own flag right.

[lakshmikanth]

^^^ looks like the Banner designer heard "Check republic" and figured the flag might be a checkered flag. He ran spell check through the rest of the thing, but unfortunately spell check does not check the correctness of the flag

I guess Pakis dont know that google can be used for purposes other than searching for goat s*x.

[ArmenT]

Actually that could be the reason for the checkered flag in the picture above. Guess the designer of the banner couldn't spell too well and google image searched for "check flag" instead of "Czech flag"

[Prem]

The debt volcano
http://dawn.com/2012/05/18/the-debt-volcano/

Using the expanded definition of public debt to capture quasi-fiscal items such as commodity operations, debt of public-sector entities and underlying guarantees issued by the government, total debt obligations on the sovereign balance sheet have touched Rs12.83tr as of end December 2011 — over 65 per cent of GDP. By comparison, this figure was around Rs6.5tr on June 30, 2008 — representing a near doubling of debt and liabilities on the public-sector balance sheet in less than four years.
More worryingly, the inability of the government to rein in high fiscal deficits, and the recourse to high-cost, short-maturity domestic borrowing has amplified the problem by reinforcing the negative feedback loop. The cost this rapid accumulation of debt is imposing can be gauged from the fact that debt servicing now accounts for over 80 per cent of net revenue (after transfer to provinces). This fiscal squeeze means that the government is progressively left with less and less to pay for all the other demands on the budget — including for making critical public-sector investments or for social-sector expenditures.By the summer of 2008, forex reserves were depleting at nearly $1bn a month, and by October of that year, actual, usable forex reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan had dipped to dangerously low levels. A currency crisis was inevitable, and the fall in the rupee was a natural outcome of the widening difference between hard currency payments and receipts — with no forex reserve buffers left to mitigate the pressure.Reform of the power sector will also be a critical element of the debt stabilisation strategy. The government may also need to discuss with banks holding large amounts of short-term sovereign paper, ways to increase the average maturity of their T-bill holdings. This is increasingly clustered towards the short end of the yield curve, heightening rollover risk as well as the possibility of potential disruption in financial markets.

[menon s]

Pakistan`s Economy can only stabilize with external grants.

[Prem]

Heading for another trap
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9 ... other-trap
Saryal Mohi bullah Shah

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Pakistan have been declining, even though worldwide FDI has been rising every year. The latest SBP report indicates that during first ten months of the current fiscal, FDI of only $ 563 million was received. At this rate, no more than $700 million would have arrived by June 2012.
That would mean a decline of over 60 percent from FDI in 2011, which itself recorded a decline of 35 percent over FDI in 2010, which witnessed a big drop of 44 percent over FDI in 2009, which again had declined by 30 percent over FDI in 2008!This continuously declining performance compares poorly even with 16-year-old FDI inflows of $1.2 billion received into the economy in the last year of Benazir Bhutto’s government. The worldwide FDI flows then were only about $400 billion compared to the massive $2 trillion at present.The US is the largest investor in Pakistan as it is in many other countries of the world. It also happens to be largest recipient of FDI in the world. And we should welcome more investment and technology flows from the US . for the first time in Pakistan, in investment related “outflows” becoming greater than “inflows.” Along with the debt trap, the country is heading for another trap as ‘outflow’ obligations are going to increase in future – with serious consequences for its already strained forex reserves. The FDI inflows must show quantum jumps of doubling and tripling from their current low levels and keep rising to overtake the outflows if we want to avoid the new trap.

[Theo_Fidel]

http://paktribune.com/business/news/Tex ... -9933.html

textile exports of Pakistan have gone down by 9.8 percent in last four months (February to May) whereas exports of competitors like India have gone up by 23.87 percent, Bangladesh 7.86 percent and China 2.05 percent.

[Theo_Fidel]

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... ation-down

Shortfall touches 6400MW as hydel generation down

[Theo_Fidel]

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120612/j ... 9qd3sXh-58

When the SBP is not kept busy by smugglers and forgers, it watches the economy and tries to keep it on the rails. Its most interesting publication is the annual report, to which it has now added quarterly surveys of the economy. According to the latest annual report, Pakistan’s gross domestic product grew 2.4 per cent in 2010-11. It will be recalled that the Indus floods of July 2010 devastated a fifth of Pakistan, and affected 20 million people. According to the SBP, this was especially hard on rich landlords; while aid poured in from abroad, the rich were too proud to go and stand in a queue for foodgrains or fertilizers.

Most of the growth was in services, whose output grew 4.1 per cent; the highest growth — 13 per cent — was achieved amongst services by the government. The war on terror and a 50 per cent salary increase for government servants were major factors in its high growth. The SBP makes an interesting comparison between the Indian and the Pakistani railways. The Indian Railways has one worker per 5000 passengers; Pakistani railways have one per 1000 passengers. As a result, the Indian Railways spends less than 60 per cent of revenue on wages, against over 80 per cent for Pakistani railways. (Although the SBP does not draw the inference, an average Indian worker is paid immensely more than a Pakistani worker.) The Indian Railways subsidizes passengers from freight earnings; Pakistani railways do it on a much larger scale. Mamata Banerjee had better take note. Although she has tried her best to ruin the Indian Railways, she has much catching up to do before she can compete with her Pakistani counterpart.

Industrial production fell slightly; the fall was due entirely to electricity production, which fell 21 per cent. Capacity utilization figures for Pakistan’s industry are astonishing: more than half the capacity was unused in 2010-11 — 24 per cent in cement, 45 per cent in sugar, 51 per cent in cars, 60 per cent in steel, 65 per cent in refrigerators, 82 per cent in flour mills, and 90 per cent in commercial vehicles. If Pakistani manufacturers can survive with so much surplus capacity, their profit margins must be really big. They are not the only ones who do well; so do smugglers of tea and cigarettes. These are good products to smuggle into Pakistan.

Meanwhile, industrial production continued to be constrained by lack of power. The origin of this shortage is interesting. It is not because power companies cannot supply the power. It is because of the way price control on electricity works. To be effective, price increases have to be approved first by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, and on its recommendation, by the federal government. The government is extremely reluctant to raise prices because it is ultimately responsible for financing the losses and does not want to do so; so power producers run out of cash and stop producing. The government is one of the biggest defaulters on payment. When there is no cash, power production stops. The average urban load shedding is 4-6 hours; in April 2011 it went up to 10 hours. In villages it was considerably more. Power production is a marginal industry in Pakistan — much more so than in India.

Pakistan relies heavily on remittances from migrants to the United Arab Emirates. The remittances went up in 2010-11 because of American hostility towards Iran. The United States of America tightened up on remittances from the Middle East to Iran; that tightening up also made it difficult for Pakistani workers to send money through illegal channels, and more of them had to use banks.

Pakistan and China signed a free trade agreement which became effective in 2009. Pakistani industrialists complain about Chinese competition. The figures for electric fans are incredible. Apparently, cheap Chinese fans have captured over 80 per cent of the domestic market; the share of Pakistani manufacturers has fallen to less than 5 per cent. So they are exporting all their production, presumably to the hot deserts of the Middle East. In general, however, industry did badly in 2010-11: investment in manufacturing fell 32 per cent to reach the lowest level in 16 years, and capital goods production fell 20 per cent. Textile and other manufacturers in Punjab would like to export more, but complain about Pakistan Railways’ high freight rates. It is difficult to see how the rates can be lowered, for in the last financial year, the railways lost Rs 31 billion — almost twice as much as the Rs 17 billion it received in revenue.

In 2001-07, more than half of Pakistan’s budget was financed by external sources. As Pakistan’s relations with the West worsened, the proportion came down to 10 per cent in 2010-11. In the circumstances, the Pakistani fiscal deficit of 6.6 per cent does not look excessive compared to Indian figures. The way it is financed is also not very different; in both countries, governments raid their banks, which are the chief buyers of debt. But the proportion of bank credit they take away is different. In Pakistan, the government and its enterprises borrowed almost Rs 600 billion from the banking system. In contrast, the private sector got about Rs 180 billion. A significant proportion of it went to power generation and distribution companies; in the present circumstances, it is money down the drain. Much of the remaining finance to the private sector goes to importers and exporters. What this means is that banks finance economic development much less in Pakistan than in India.

[Aditya_V]

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... ation-down

Shortfall touches 6400MW as hydel generation down

Dont worry GOI will make it up.

[Theo_Fidel]

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/06 ... s-6802-mw/

Due to intensity of heat, the power shortfall during peak hours has reached to 6802 MW against demand of 17873 MW.

[Aditya_V]

http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/06 ... s-6802-mw/

Due to intensity of heat, the power shortfall during peak hours has reached to 6802 MW against demand of 17873 MW.

Theo there is something odd about the report, for years Pakis and western Apologists have been claiming they are the largest expansion of Nukes thanks to Chasab-1,2 Nuke power plants which are producing bountiful Plutonium,but there is no mention of any power generated in the article.

Which means the entire thing about Pak expanding its Nuke arsenal based on domestic Plutonium Power plants is aplain white lie.

[Anujan]

In a month's time the annual flooding will start in Sindh destroying crops and houses and pushing thousands into tents.

How is the monsoon forecast looking this year?

[vishvak]

Which means the entire thing about Pak expanding its Nuke arsenal based on domestic Plutonium Power plants is aplain white lie.

All this ignored/supported/schemed by all other civilized?

[kmc_chacko]

In a month's time the annual flooding will start in Sindh destroying crops and houses and pushing thousands into tents.

How is the monsoon forecast looking this year?

“Hell broke down in upper parts!”
http://pakistanweatherportal.com/2012/0 ... -pakistan/

[saip]

Electricity shortfall in the country reaches 8,500 MW

Can India meet this much shortfall?

[Aditya_V]

Which means the entire thing about Pak expanding its Nuke arsenal based on domestic Plutonium Power plants is aplain white lie.

All this ignored/supported/schemed by all other civilized?

All other civilized- not really just a few NPA/ Stockholm/ UK based groups where many of thier over the 30 years like AGNI is a scout missile etc. have been debunked.

If Pakis are producing are tons of Plutonium, isnt it logical given the modest Pakis output, atleast 600MW-1200MW show up.

[Kanishka]

UN sanctions on Iran: Pakistan loses lucrative mango destination

Pakistani exports of fruit, which is already facing a declining trend, has lost a lucrative market of neighbouring country Iran, where at least 30,000 tones of mango were being exported previously, as a result of trade embargo imposed by United Nations on Tehran.

With the loss of this market, exporters have faced almost $10 million worth exports of mango during the ongoing season, said Waheed Ahmed, Co-Chairman, Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters, Importers and Merchant Association (PFVA) in a statement on Monday.

As commercial banks in the country are reluctant to issue E Form to exporters owing to, what they claim, UN Security Council's sanctions on the neighbouring country, no formal export of mango was to Tehran was registered so far this year, he said adding that this loss would drastically reduce the over all exports of mango. Mango exports have already been reduced by 15 percent as only 40,000 tones of the fruit have been sent abroad.

Besides, no export of mango to other potential markets of Japan and United States has been recorded this year.

[arun]

Protests over electricity shortages turn violent and results in deaths:

Two killed, 50 injured in Pakistan riots

[ArmenT]

Textile, clothing exports drop

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s export of textile and clothing dropped 9.961 per cent in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year due to weak demand from recession-hit key markets Europe and US.

The exports proceeds from these sectors fell to $11.273 billion in July-May period this year from $12.472 billion over the corresponding period of last year, suggested data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday.

To add to their woes:
Import bill increases

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s import bill of oil and eatables increased by over 22pc in the first 11 months of the current fiscal year over the last year because of high domestic consumption and surge in oil prices in the international market.

In absolute term, the import bill of these two products climbed to $18.576 billion in July-May period this year from $15.18 billion during the same period last year, suggested data of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday.

Grass-eating to follow onlee.

[Kanishka]

AlJazeera: Pakistan plagued by economic problems.

[neeraj]

Industrial units shut
http://www.thenews.com.pk/article-57739 ... ion-in-Fsd

The process of industrial production has come to a halt as a result of two-day gas supply closure for 450 industrial units in Faisalabad region, Geo News reported Saturday.

Begging bowl continues
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... erchandise

The Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry Saturday urged the US administration to take urgenty and immediate measures to grant duty-free access to Pakistani merchandise that would ultimately help Pakistan overcome its economic woes.

More Pakistanis fall below acceptable dietary line: UN
http://dawn.com/2012/07/05/more-pakista ... y-line-un/

According to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals report for 2012, two-digit inflation and high food inflation significantly decreased the purchasing power of people, especially the poor.
The report expressed fears that Pakistan was lagging behind the target of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger and indicators show that the target would not be achieved by 2015, the deadline for achieving MDGs.

[Yogi_G]

Netherlands envoy appreciates resilience of economy