West Asia News and Discussions

[Suppiah]

Was it Lee kuan yew that said Indian embassy staff do anything for whiskey bottle? Individuals in any country or society can behave cruelly...they may be corrupt too...that is not the point...the sort of institutionalised abuse that takes place in barbaric animal kingdoms of middle east with full support and connivance of the obnoxious regimes there, primarily to keep the citizenry happy and not challenge their misrule, is the issue....nor that you need to make much effort to turn these scums into animals anyway...

[Suppiah]

Another thing we hear commonly is the employers holding the passports. Can the embassies hold them for the people so when they reach the embassy, they are as good as in India?

That is a deliberate policy to encourage abuse and animalism. Sort of the bribe offered to mangoes to keep them quiet...several such policies together make life hell for all third world labor including those from momin lands.

[RajeshA]

Was it Lee kuan yew that said Indian embassy staff do anything for whiskey bottle?

This is nonsense! Indian Embassy staff have plenty of whiskey bottles to go around. They often buy duty-free!

[JE Menon]

Yes it was uncle lee speaking of the 70s and 80s I guess, back in the days when he was freely dispensing unsolicited advise to us poor folk on the hindu rate of growth and sundry other matters. Things have changed a bit since, but the basic premise still appears to be that unless we compromise on certain principles and choose the Chinese model or a variation of it, we are never going to amount to anything much... Of course, uncle lee may have to reconsider his own city state's position in the not too distant future...

[brihaspati]

Morsi gave himself legal immunity - and excused this on supposedly protecting the achievements of the "revolution". So opponents have gone back to Tahrir - and clashes have resumed. Gaza ceasefire already broken, allegedly on the shooting to death of a Palestinian man who ventured into the buffer zone.

Interesting zone is Syria. No one really knows what is happening, and both sides claiming they are going to win. There is some speculation as to whether the Gaza adventure was to divert attention from an impending strike on Iran.

[JE Menon]

Yeah, Morsi is in a hurry it seems. From what I'm hearing, and it is by no means clear yet, it appears that in some respects he wants to wield even more power than our old friend Mubarak had... Welcome to the brotherhood.

[member_20292]

Why dont we accept that certain people LIKE ...nee LOVE authoritarian regimes. China, the middle East.

Then we can get off the democracy and liberalism bandwagon and let them go their own merry ways. Why bother with medieval people anyways?

[Johann]

Egypt 2012 is not Iran 1979/80.

There is no charismatic figure like Khomeini to blind the masses, and there isn't the same kind of obsessive anti-Americanism that provided an excuse to crush the liberals. There isn't an Iraq to invade, which provided Khomeini the excuse to crush the left. Potentially Morsy could try to pick a fight with Israel in order to impose a state of emergency and suppress the opposition. That might be difficult to do because of the armed forces.

Leadership within the Iranian security forces fell apart when the Shah left, and the many armories were looted by the revolutionaries. That was the way the Shah had designed the Iranian forces in order to prevent a coup against him. That meant that the most organised armed force on the streets was the different revolutionary factions. That's not the case in Egypt. The MB is not armed, and the Egyptian armed forces are still a factor in their own right.

Morsy moved too early, instead of patiently waiting for a decade like Erdogan. The revolution in 2011 created a new political consciousness among ordinary Egyptians, and Morsy's power grab is firing them up again before the state delivered economic growth and improved access to services.

[Johann]

The current Likud government is doing real damage to Israel by using war as a re-election strategy. Gaza is all he had given that the US has warned him against messing with Abbas in the West Bank for his UN bid, and the US and the Israeli security forces blocked an attack on Iran.

By killing Hamas's Al-Jabari on November 14th when he was acting as the mediator between Israel and rival jihadist groups Likud deliberately created an escalatory situation, and Hamas, as the Arabs always do, behaved predictably. This is why Israel usually wins - unless its fighting Hezbollah. 1947, 1967, 1982. Israel acts, while the Arabs react. When you retain the initiative numbers don't matter.

Nobody Jewish in Israel, and hardly any Americans like Hamas, so no one will notice or care that although they were the primary target in the operation, unlike the other Islamist groups and Israel they were not looking for a fight. The operation has provided a big boost for Bibi in the polls.

The problem is that this kind of tactical brilliance is steadily eroding its support base around the world, particularly the US. Israel does quite seriously risk finding itself in the same situation internationally as Apartheid-era South Africa. The RSA's remarkable military prowess on its own was not enough to defeat the problem of isolation and demography, which exactly what Israel faces unless it changes course. The hard right in Israel is going to destroy the country, and that to me is a tragedy.

[shyamd]

Message to the iranians
US aircraft carrier strikeforce readies in case of war with Iran

When the aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis returns to the placid blue waters of the Gulf with her strike force of 70 jets in the next few days, she will be ready for action off the coast of Iran.
US aircraft carrier strikeforce readies in case of war with Iran : USS John C Stennis CVN-74 Aircraft Carrier.Pic Shows Royal Navy Pilot Stephen Collins call sign Lothar on secondment to the USS Navy

USS John C Stennis CVN-74 Aircraft Carrier: Royal Navy Pilot Stephen Collins call sign Lothar on secondment to the USS Navy Photo: PAUL GROVER
Nick Meo

By Nick Meo, on the USS John C Stennis near the Strait of Hormuz

7:30AM GMT 25 Nov 2012


The flagship $4.5 billion carrier, a 100,000 ton floating city with a crew of 5,000, was despatched four months earlier than planned to bolster the United States Navy's already formidable force in the region, the Fifth Fleet.

Its mission is to keep some of the world's busiest shipping lanes open in its most combustible region; at any moment America's standoff with Iran could escalate into a crisis.

"Could there be a threat?" asked Rear Admiral Mike Shoemaker, the man who would command any mission to force open the sea lanes. "Yes is the answer. Is it manageable? Also yes."

Admiral Shoemaker, a wiry man with a Navy buzz cut, runs through the likely threats: anti-ship cruise missiles; midget submarines; speedboats on suicide missions. Iran's conventional air force and navy are clapped out and no match for the US Navy, but they had years of practising mine-laying.

"If they sunk a tanker, that could shut the Strait for a couple of days or a week," Adm Shoemaker said. "But we could deal with that quite quickly. A massive mine-laying effort, though, would take a while to clear."

Last year, Iran's navy held mine-laying wargames. In September, America and its allies ran their biggest ever mine clearance-exercise, indicating the likely nature of a future conflict.

This weekend the carrier is briefly docked in Bahrain, the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet.

But if America is drawn into another big war in the Middle East, a key nerve centre for operations will be the admiral's bridge on the ship, a surprisingly uncluttered space. There are only two computer screens, a big telephone, and an old-fashioned ship's compass. The view is spectacular, high above a heaving flight deck, the length of three football fields, where screaming jets land and take off. Most are flying daily combat missions over Afghanistan.

As the ship patrolled not far from the Strait of Hormuz, officers on the bridge pointed out the different planes: Hawkeyes, which see over the horizon with radar; Prowlers, which blind the enemy's electronic eyes; and Hornets, the ones that do the damage by dropping precision-guided bombs as heavy as one ton on any target the admiral chooses. Iran's nuclear sites are within easy range.

The bombs are now nearly all precision-guided by laser and GPS. The biggest can be carried by a jet, but landing with a one-ton bomb is too risky so they are dropped at sea if they are not used against an enemy.

The crew boast of being ready for any mission, 24 hours a day, but there is little enthusiasm for a new war with Iran, America's old enemy in the region - and currently crowing over the fact that long-range rockets it supplied to Gaza were a key part of the armoury launched against Israel 10 days ago.

"I hope it's never going to happen, nobody on this boat is looking for a fight, but if it does we have the capability," said Ordnance Handling Officer William Donals, 46, the man in charge of preparing bombs to be loaded on planes.

"I was in the Gulf in the run-up to the 2003 war and back then it was different," he said. "There was a lot more energy and a sense that something was about to happen. This time it's more a sense that we are ready if we are needed."

The Iran problem is a chief foreign policy headache for the newly re-elected President Obama, who tried a mix of sanctions and diplomacy in his first term to stop Iran's alleged ambition to build the Bomb, without much success.

Now he is expected to try again with greater urgency, and so the temperature is rising again in the Gulf. The White House has not ruled out air strikes; Israel gives the impression it is only American pressure that has restrained it from sending in the bombers.

Iran, its economy buckling under sanctions, has pledged that if it is attacked it will block the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile wide entrance to the Gulf, and thus send the price of oil sky high, jeopardising the fragile world economy. On an average day, eight supertankers each carrying two million barrels of oil traverse the Strait - about 35 per cent of the world's seaborne oil. There are fears that as Iran's economy crumbles, its leaders could at some point lash out in desperation.

America has promised to keep the Strait open at all costs, and that may become Admiral Shoemaker's mission. Prior to being an admiral he was an aviator - the usual career route to the top in the US Navy. He has years of experience in the Gulf region, mainly flying against the forces of Saddam Hussein.

What keeps him up at night is fear of stumbling into an accidental war. The two nations have repeatedly skirmished at sea since Iran's Islamic revolution three decades ago. Now both are careful. American and Iranian ship's officers regularly communicate by radio, speaking in English, carefully avoiding discussion of politics. Even the Revolutionary Guard's navy is generally polite. Its boats sometimes sail close to American vessels, but not too close.

However, the two sides have started to probe and test each other. Earlier this month the Pentagon announced that two Iranian jets had fired at a US drone for the first time, as it flew over international waters. The drone got away, in an embarrassing demonstration of the competence of Iran's pilots. Then Iran announced new war games, to test the air defences of its eastern border.

The Americans say they are careful not to push back too hard. "We are aware of what we are doing and always working hard to avoid some kind of miscalculation, something that could be interpreted as a hostile action," Adm Shoemaker said.

Last time he was in the Gulf, during the 2011 pull-out of US forces from Iraq, Iranian leaders crowed about the US "retreat", and when the Stennis departed for home waters, they boasted that they would never let her return.

Navy officers have the unenviable task of trying to work out whether bombast like that emanating from the regime is wild rhetoric or cold, hard threat. "I wish I knew a little bit more about them," Admiral Shoemaker said. Asked if he thought Iran's leaders were rational, he admitted: "It's a good question. I am not really sure."

Those under his command wonder what they are sailing into. "There may be a lot of rhetoric at the diplomatic level, but it's just day-to-day routine operations for us," said Steve Scott, the commanding officer of an F-18 Superhornet Squadron.

"When you are far out at sea, you can feel a little bit cut off from the real world, but we all watch television and we know about the situation with Iran," said Michael Nicholas, 29, whose job is to move jets around the deck prior to take-offs and landings.

"We feel we have a purpose, we are the first line of defence, and we are right in their back yard."

Meanwhile, life on board goes on in the cramped and labyrinthine passageways and huge hangars. The working day is long and hard, typically 12 hours spent under a baking Gulf sun for those working on deck, with a weekly half day off.

Enlisted sailors sleep 100 to a dormitory and eat in canteens. Many admit they are desperate to get home towards the end of an eight month mission. There is one treat to look forward to - the 100th day at sea, when the ship traditionally drops anchor and lowers a deck so sailors can swim in the ocean, with a barbecue afterwards on the flight deck.

Alcohol is strictly forbidden, prayers are said over the ship's intercom, and although dating is allowed - there are 600 women on board, and the average age of ratings is about 19 - "intimacy" is not. Time off is spent catching up with sleep or watching the ship's 24-hour movie channel.

Tension is never far off, and on the flight out to the carrier from Bahrain in a Greyhound logistics plane, The Sunday Telegraph got a glimpse of it when a mystery reconnaissance aircraft emerged from Iranian airspace.

"That's never happened before," said Lieutenant-Commander Julio Galvan, 39, the pilot, as he peered through the cockpit's window. For a while the two aircraft flew in parallel, a mile or so apart, before the mystery plane banked and headed towards the mountains of Iran's coast in the distance.

Soon afterwards, the Greyhound flew high over the Strait, where dozens of supertankers were queuing as they waited their turn to get through.

"I don't think that plane was any threat to us," Commander Galvan said. "We've learnt to live with the Iranians."

That understanding has helped keep the peace in the one of the world's most militarised waterways. But how long it will last is anybody's guess.

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While everyones attentions were on Gaza/Israel. The FSA has made substantial gains - they basically control a lot of the north, east and have pretty much surrounded Damascus. This morning another military airport fell to the east of the Capital in an overnight battle. They have tanks, more advanced SAMs after taking these bases. The Asad loyalists admit themselves that Aleppo is lost which is a key hub for Syrian business.

A friend of mine visited the border areas with Turkey/Syria - he said all they want is good weapons, they don't need manpower. Where the Asad forces are outnumbered they withdraw, bomb the hell out of the place and try and come back.

-----------------------
On Gaza - there was a ground element of the ops led by the IDF special forces. One of the factors behind not launching the ground operation was based on the findings of the IDF SF. Will be interesting to hear the Hamas take on it. Hamas and Hezbollah once again proved that they have sleeper cells that can be called into action to conduct operations. The ISA has its work cut out.

[Johann]

Syrian opposition tactics have changed in the last few months, especially in Idlib on the Turkish border and the far east by the Iraqi border. The same thing is happening in the Ghuta, the rural area around Damascus, but slower. Rather than scattered ambushes and assaults, they identify vulnerable positions and besiege them. Once dug in, government airpower and artillery has relatively little effect on the armed combatants- instead they target the nearby villages and towns that are supplying the opposition. Whether the government positions surrender or are overrun, the siege yields recruits and weapons for a much lower relative cost. The opposition has moved up from small outposts, to forward bases, to minor airfields, to major logistics bases. The result is that lines of communication between the Turkish border and the western half of Aleppo will soon be completely open. Given that Assad hasn't been able to retake Aleppo already despite maximum efforts, his position in the city is only going to deteriorate. When Aleppo falls its likely we will see another big upsurge in defections.

[brihaspati]

The Syrian conflict is dragging on too long. Its better that the jihadis take over Syria quickly, so that the continuity of jihadi rule from Turkey to Pak becomes consolidated. This means more power to Saudi led and inspired Sunni jihadism, and the quickening of the next steps in their inevitable expansion plans.

It is crucial for India and Israel that jihadis succeed. In both societies, a certain portion of the elite or those dependent on cuts from pure financial flows, have turned covert or overt bootlickers of Sunni jihad - one way or the other. Both societies need to realize where their real vulenrabilities lie - their own subversives who are secret admirers of Sunni jihad, and in real conflict facing the jihadis who will betray their non-admiring populations.

But only an intensification of the jihad can help the rest of us to identify and convince ourselves to eliminate the subversives. This should end quickly, so that we can move to the next phase. Any Israeli or Indian voice that sympathizes, or supports or pushes or covers for the cause of Sunni jihad - directly or indirectly - are the potential betrayers of their respective societies, and this has been the standard doorway through which Islamism had gained entry in every society it has eventually destroyed.

If they or their legacy do not face horrendous treatment that go several degrees over that the Islamists have practised on their victims throughout history, there will be no effective deterrent for such behaviour in the future.

[brihaspati]

The plight of the opposition to Morsi has to be carefully followed. It follows the standard pattern of 20th century external backed transitions to Islamism - whereby leftist/"secular" radicalism is first encouraged to go for showdown, and then the mullahcracy is backed up to crush both the leftists/seculars as well as less overtly Islamic forces.

My only hope is that since both Egypt and Iran had retained an undercurrent of opposition to Saudi Arabism and retrogression - out of cultural and national pride, that the generations that now help to put mullahcracy more directly in power will see the real nature of the mullah and the religion that drives them - and their next uprising will be against the mullahcracy. I hope it will be as bloody as possible, for every horror justified by the mullah on religious excuse is justified on themselves.

[Johann]

B,

Agreed that the conflict is taking too long in Syria - the extent of destruction is not good for anyone. But it was clear from the start that given the differences in firepower between the regime and the opposition that it was going to be a long slog.

However, if the jihadists can't take over a mostly Sunni, relatively conservative Libya they will not be able to take over a much more diverse and cosmopolitan Syria.

Salafi jihadis have done well in the Arab Spring because Gulf states offer them generous support, rather than because they have broad appeal in local societies. Salafis arent interested in running hospitals, universities or water and sewage systems, and that's what people want alongside some sort of symbolic Islamic state that matches their current level of social conservatism. Thats the secret of the MB's appeal.

[brihaspati]

Johann,
its too early to say that Sunni jihad has not taken roots in Libya. There is a selective news blackout on Libya - and you can see that in the sudden media blackout over the Qaddafi stronghold. You can also see that in the compromises that US has made over the ambassador's elimination. The neighbouring other country that first started it off - has been slowly consolidating formal islamist control over society.

What you are seeing as lack of success for jihadists - is actually the period when mullahcracy quietly eliminates the sources of opposition - characteristic of every such moves in the Islamic countries in the 20th century. One thsi phase is over, the next step of jihadism starts.

[JE Menon]

I agree with brihaspati here... Too early to call Libya.

Almost certainly, the regime now in place will fail to deliver; and the notion that "Islam is the solution" will be easily transferrable to the public. Ditto Egypt, except there the slogan will be "more Islam is the solution"... But it will be a slower process there. That's my gut feel.

[Johann]

B,

Of course the jihadis have established themselves in Libya - Libyans proportionately contributed the largest number of jihadis to the Iraq war, and the survivors returned, just like the Afghan Arabs before them. I was reading reports of them going around blowing up sufi shrines in broad daylight before they attacked the US consulate in Benghazi - the American failure to properly prepare for the attack was a huge systemic failure. But despite being well armed and well financed, and facing a very weak state the Salafis don't control much. The jihadis are not in a position to take over. They're like herpes - ugly, infectious, painful, prone to repeated outbreaks but unable to conquer the body.

Even when they do the Salafis are terrible at governance, and they leave very little room for the expression of local community and autonomy, which triggers the local auto-immune reaction. Sometimes whole communities ally with extremist movements to fight off reimposition of state authority, but they aren't going to gladly and indefinitely subject themselves to a bunch of even more repressive outsiders with guns just because they're waving a Quran about. That's why the tribes in Iraq switched from the Al-Qaeda side to the American one.

[brihaspati]

Follow up the ground situation in Iraq. The switchover happened more from Sunni side - as part of the general Saudi initiative to counter the larger Shia power within. The media reprts les and less - but the internal violence has not gone down, and some indictions are that it is increasing along a certain pattern of territorial divide.

[Johann]

Hi B,

Please see my herpes comment. Salafis are difficult to eradicate, but they can not take over either. That is the kind of situation Syria and Libya are likely to be stuck with. Lebanon has been coping with the same problem in Tripoli and northern Lebanon for a while as well, as has Iraq. That's going to be the steady state as long as the Gulf states are willing and able to support these movements, especially while governments operate along sectarian and authoritarian lines.

While the majority of voters in the Arab world may prefer women out and about in abayas, but they also want access to good quality healthcare, education, transportation, power and water. Also, they don't want the state to be able to lock them up or shake down their pockets on a whim, or make promotions based on connections over merit. Sharia is only one part of the package that is appealing to them.

[shyamd]

20 June 2012

ASad is using allt the businesses close to him, to sustain the economy and keep loyalists happy with their lifestyles. Syria has a lot of inflation at the moment - foreign currency is scarce as it is being used to pay for fuel - Assad is printing notes (500 and 1000 pund notes) from Russia now.

What I said then is now breaking news.
Flight Records List Russia Sending Tons of Cash to Syria

The Syrian plane mentioned in the flight manifests obtained by ProPublica. (Flickr user Jerome_K)

by Dafna Linzer, Michael Grabell and Jeff Larson
ProPublica, Nov. 26, 2012, 12 a.m.

This past summer, as the Syrian economy began to unravel and the military pressed hard against an armed rebellion, a Syrian government plane ferried what flight records describe as more than 200 tons of “bank notes” from Moscow.

The records of overflight requests were obtained by ProPublica. The flights occurred during a period of escalating violence in a conflict that has left tens of thousands of people dead since fighting broke out in March 2011.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad is increasingly in need of cash to stay afloat and continue financing the military’s efforts to crush the uprising. U.S. and European sanctions, including a ban on minting Syrian currency, have damaged the country’s economy. As a result, Syria lost access to an Austrian bank that had printed its bank notes.

“Having currency that you can put into circulation is certainly something that is important in terms of running an economy and more so in an economy that is become more cash-based as things deteriorate,” said Daniel Glaser, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes. “It is certainly something the Syrian government wants to do, to pay soldiers or pay anybody anything."

According to the flight records, which are in English and Farsi, eight round-trip flights between Damascus International Airport and Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport each carried 30 tons of bank notes back to Syria.

Syrian and Russian officials did not respond to ProPublica's questions about the authenticity and accuracy of the flight records. It is not possible to know whether the logs accurately described the cargo or what else might have been on board the flights. Nor do the logs specify the type of currency.

But ProPublica confirmed nearly all of the flights took place through international plane-tracking services, photos by aviation enthusiasts, and air traffic control recordings.

Each time the manifest listed “Bank Notes” as its cargo, the plane traveled a circuitous route. Instead of flying directly over Turkish airspace, as civilian planes have, the Ilyushin-76 cargo plane, operated by the Syrian Air Force, avoided Turkey and flew over Iraq, Iran, and Azerbaijan.
Demascus
Moscow

The flight path between Syria and Russia described in the manifests.

Tensions have been rising between Syria and Turkey since the spring. Last month, Turkey forced down a Syrian passenger plane traveling from Moscow. Turkey suspected the flight of carrying military cargo but officials have not said what, if anything, was confiscated.

If the flight manifests are accurate, a total of 240 tons of bank notes moved from Moscow to Damascus over a 10-week period beginning July 9th and ending on September 15th.

U.S. officials interviewed said evidence of monetary assistance, like military cooperation, point to a pattern of Russian support for Assad that extends from concrete aid to protecting Syria from U.N. sanctions.

In September, 2011, six months into the violence, the European Union imposed sanctions that prohibited its members from minting or supplying new Syrian coinage or banknotes. In a statement, the EU said the sanctions aimed “to obstruct those who are leading the crackdown in Syria and to restrict the funding being used to perpetrate violence against the Syrian people.” At the time, Syria’s currency was being minted by Oesterreichische Banknoten- und Sicherheitsdruck GmbH, a subsidiary of Austria’s Central Bank.

President Obama has issued five Executive Orders that prevent members of the Assad regime from entering the United States and accessing the U.S. financial system.

“Increasingly, it is more difficult to finance the war machine and the cost of the war is becoming more expensive for the Assad regime,” said one U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Targeted sanctions on those leading the violence are working and start to bite into their pocket books.”

Russia appears to be helping Syria blunt the impact of the sanctions.

This past June, Reuters reported that Russia had begun printing new Syrian pounds and that an initial shipment of bank notes had already arrived. The report was denied by the Syrian Central Bank, which claimed the only new money in circulation were bills that had replaced damaged or worn bank notes. Such a swap, the bank contended, would have no effect on the economy.

On August 3rd, the official Syrian news agency SANA, reporting from a news conference in Moscow with Syrian and Russian economic officials, quoted Syrian officials acknowledging that Russia is printing money. Qadr iJamil, Syria’s deputy prime minister for Economic Affairs, was quoted by SANA as calling the deal with Russia a “triumph,” over sanctions.

Syrian Finance Minister Mohammad al-Jleilati said that Russia was providing both replacement notes and additional currency to, as SANA put it, “reflect the country’s changing GDP.”

Al-Jleilati said the money would have no effect on inflation. Printing new notes beyond simply replacing old ones could undermine Syria’s already battered currency.

At the time of the meeting, at least 30 tons of currency had already been delivered, according to the flight records, and another 210 tons would be delivered in subsequent flights.

In its regional economic outlook released earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund noted that Syria’s currency has lost 44 percent of its value since March 2011, trading for about 70 pounds to the dollar compared with about 47 pounds when the conflict began.

Ibrahim Saif, a political economist based in Jordan and a resident scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center said 30 tons of bank notes twice a week is a significant amount for a country like Syria.

“I truly believe it’s not only that they’re exchanging old money for new notes. They are printing money because they need new notes,” Saif said.

“Most of the government revenue that comes from taxes, in terms of other services, it’s almost now dried up,” noted Saif. Yet, “they continue to pay salaries. They have not shown any signs of weakness in fulfilling their domestic obligations. The only way they can do this is to get some sort of cash in the market.”

Before the unrest broke out, Syria had about $17 billion in foreign currency reserves. Saif said he and other economists in the region estimate they now have about $6-8 billion in reserves, dwindling about $500 million a month for salaries and supplies to keep the government running.

In Moscow, the Syrian finance minister had said that his country required additional foreign currency reserves, which Russia may provide in the form of loans.

“It’s possible the Syrians are acquiring foreign currency reserves, either Euros or US dollars, which they would need to conduct any serious commerce,” said Juan Zarate, who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes during the Bush administration.

Zarate noted that other countries, when faced with economic sanctions, have leaned on allies for foreign currency reserves. China supplied North Korea with such funds in the past and Venezuela agreed to sell reserves to Iran.

Syria’s currency is still traded on open markets, but there is limited on-the-ground information about the economy, including inflation.

Officials at the IMF “have not been able to get direct information about Syria for at least a year,” Masood Ahmed, director of the group’s Middle East and Central Asia department, told reporters at a conference in Tokyo last month.

Glaser, at Treasury, declined to put a figure on Syria’s current reserves but said the Syrian economy is suffering in part from a lack of tourism and a ban on oil sales, both of which provided Damascus with foreign currency. “There is significant inflation in the country. It can be caused by adding new currency or not having foreign reserves to prop up the existing currency.”

[RamaY]

I hope it is US Bank notes they were printing a.l.a Pakis

[Johann]

Worth listening to in its entire length.

Islamists in Power: governing the Arab world?

Gilles Kepel talk from last week, followed by Q&A

http://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/vide ... px?id=1661

Particularly good at discussing the impact of the three way competition between Qatar (backing the MB), the Saudis (backing the Salafis) and the Iranians on the Arab uprisings.

[devesh]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 16240.html

Unity Proves Elusive in Syria

WASHINGTON -- The Syrian opposition took a big step forward this month by forming a broad political coalition that includes local activists who started the revolution. But the opposition's military command is still a mess, and until it's fixed, jihadist extremists will keep getting more powerful.

As I wrote after my trip inside Syria in early October, a stronger command-and-control structure is crucial in creating an opposition force that can accomplish two essential tasks: defeating President Bashar al-Assad and maintaining order in Syria after he falls. The U.S. had encouraged the rebels to form provincial "military councils" to achieve better coordination. But the rebel forces have continued to splinter in recent weeks.

Talking with some of the Free Syrian Army activists who arranged my trip into Syria, I've heard examples of the chaos caused by bypassing the military council structure. Maj. Mohammed Ali and Maj. Maher Noaimi, two rebel commanders from Hama, are said to be receiving money directly from Gulf nations. "Ali and Noaimi are still serving as middlemen for all sorts of folks, and they're working outside the MCs," complained one report last month to the State Department about the confused funding.

Another example is Sheik Adnan Mohammed al-Aroor, an extremist cleric from Hama who receives money from Saudi Arabia and appears often on Arab television. He is said to have undercut the military councils' coordination in northern Syria. The U.S. has urged the Saudis to cut support of Aroor, but activists say his followers remain potent on the ground.

A third example of confusion cited by rebel sources is the Farouk battalion, originally from Homs, which controls major northern border crossings into Syria. This group is said to have especially strong support from Turkey that allows it to operate outside the military council structure.

Most dangerous of all is the continuing growth of the extremist Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda-linked group that receives funding from wealthy individuals in the Gulf. One example of the destructive, sectarian role played by the Jabhat al-Nusra is that its fighters are said to have attacked Kurdish rebels recently in Ras al-Ain, in northeastern Syria. The extremist group's influence is also growing because its fighters, eager for martyrdom, are the toughest.

Syrian activists warn that chaos will continue until the various governments that support the opposition pool their money and disseminate it through the provincial councils. "Stop asking us to unify until you unify yourselves," a Syrian activist warned a U.S. official recently.

The U.S. plans to step up its efforts to work with key backers of the opposition -- such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and France -- to build a stronger command structure. U.S. officials specifically applaud the efforts of several military council commanders who have tried to foster unity, such as Col. Abdul-Jabbar Akidi in Aleppo, Col. Afif Suleiman in Idlib and Gen. Ziad al-Fahd and Col. Khalid Alhoubos in Damascus.

One key role for these councils is to broaden the opposition beyond its Sunni jihadist roots. Akidi, for example, is said to have twice met recently with a Syrian Christian bishop in Aleppo to assure Christians that they will be safe if the opposition wins. "If this is the future, we can work with it," the bishop reportedly said afterward.

The political opposition formed a united front this month after a meeting in Doha, Qatar, that created a new group formally called the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. It has since been recognized by France, Britain, Turkey, the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union. Political unity followed pressure from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on regional powers that had been backing different groups that were constantly squabbling.

Unfortunately, the rebel military council leadership was not included in the Doha effort. Military leaders such as Akidi thought they would be invited, but the invitations never came. This has added to demoralization.

U.S. and Syrian sources agree that to create military unity, the CIA will have to push friendly intelligence services to pool funding and other support behind a unified command. U.S. officials hope that process will happen over the next month, but rebel leaders fear this could be too late.

A coherent, non-extremist military structure is crucial, finally, because it could provide the path for an eventual settlement that halts all-out sectarian war. Otherwise, this will be a fight to the death between Assad's goons and radical jihadists -- with poor Syria shattered in the process.

[Agnimitra]

Interesting twist:
Iran's ambassador to Lebanon (Ghazanfar Roknabadi) as well as Hamas spokespersons have publicly acknowledged a conflict of opinion between Iran and Hamas over the Syrian imbroglio.

The Hamas spokesperson gently warned Iran that if Iran doesn't want the "Arab World" to have a negative opinion of Iran, then Tehran should reconsider its support of Bashar Assad's regime.

[brihaspati]

Hmas thinks it may very well be cooked in the short run. Hence as is traditional in Islamist deception - its buying time. It cannot kick off Iran entirely if it wants to keep the support-Palestine market competitive from the supplier side.

[RamaY]

^^

Does it mean Hamas started disagreeing with Iran's opinion of erasing Israel from the map? Or is Iran giving up that claim?

If Islam cannot be the uniting force between two Arap nations then how can it be an unifying force between say gays and lesbians?

[Chinmayanand]

Islam is the ultimate force uniting the suicidal abdul with 72 raisins.

[shyamd]

French will be launching operations in Mali very soon. They are preparing. Looks like mainly drones will be used.

[Rony]

Sunni Leaders Gaining Clout in Mideast

Downing of Copter May Show a New Syrian Rebel Capability

[brihaspati]

Dronanande mohita Viswa.
If the French go into Mali, that would be nice - with UN backpackers peacefully recording the show?

[brihaspati]

RamaY ji,
intra Islamic conflict can always coexist with Islamic-non-islamic conflict. Islamic thinking is highly opportunistic and pragmatic - so it simply sees the US as a tool [just like every other Kaffir is]. But within the Islamic world of the ME - there is always this urge for regional power centres to try and gather the resources of the entire ME - by mobilizing and demanding submission in the name of the ummah. In reality - Hamas needs a large chunk of non-Islamic support, as the contest for supremacy between Iran and Saudis leave it vulnerable to "market" forces in sympathy/support currency. This is why there is a direct need for Hamas to take on the anti-Jew stand, so that it can neutralize Europe [hidden anti-semitism] and thereby isolate US a bit. Even to balance out the consequences of Iran-Saudi contest [Hamas cannot afford to lean over to any one side completely] they need to focus on becoming more anti-Jew - so that theological loud-mouthing can be used to counter the Saudi-Iran contest over the question of "Jews".

[devesh]

so the Sunnis have finally succeeded in getting legitimization for Palestine. that state now is on the path to legal statehood. so basically Sunni Jihadis will finally have the free run that they've been demanding for the past 60 years. the Islamic infrastructure can now legally and officially fill the streets with "Kill the Jews" speeches without any retribution b/c it's "free speech".

meanwhile Ehud Olmert, the former PM of Israel seems to be supporting the UN's decision. and considering her former record, Tzipi Livni might also announce full support sometime soon.

US and Israel unsuccessfully tried to avert this move by the UN and Europeans.

[brihaspati]

The Israelis have to face this. They will need also to face the eventual Islamist jihad that is fighting behind the burqa of Palestinian "rights". Unless Israel is wiped off - justified by the "righteous anger and indignation" of Palestinians, or Islamist anger which always always onlee "reacts" to provocation by non-Muslims, we do not have the ground situation for going to the final phase. A lot of the crypto-Islamist regimes of the world, now connected in and webbed in by various forms of narco-petro financial flows controlled by the Gulf, will not shut up until Israel falls.

Then of course either the whole world becomes Islamic or the very movement is erased completely when defeated in the military struggle for imperialist expansion.

[brihaspati]

Morsi vs anti-Morsi clashes now extends to the streets. Protests seem to be spreading.

[Rony]

Monarchism matters

[Sachin]

so the Sunnis have finally succeeded in getting legitimization for Palestine. that state now is on the path to legal statehood.

'Palestine' wins historic upgrade at the United Nations

“We did not come here seeking to delegitimize a state established years ago, and that is Israel; rather we came to affirm the legitimacy of the state that must now achieve its independence, and that is Palestine,” he [Mahmoud Abbas] said

The news report says that Palestine gets into UN in the capacity of "non-member observer state". What are the perks these folks get being in this state? Secondly, does any one have a map which shows the current area which is marked as Palestine? If I get it right There is the West Bank area, and the Gaza strip which are NOT connected with each other. So with Israel being around all about them, how much of an "independence" they can have? Yes, off course other folks who want Israel wiped out of the map I guess would now be in their legal limits to arm this "non-member observer state" , and Israel cannot take offensive action. (?)

[Rony]

Editor-in-chief of the Saudigazette khaled al-maeena who is considered as a liberal thanks Expatriates for their role in building up the country and are dismayed at their negative potrayal in saudi media

Our thanks to all expatriates!

[RoyG]

so the Sunnis have finally succeeded in getting legitimization for Palestine. that state now is on the path to legal statehood. so basically Sunni Jihadis will finally have the free run that they've been demanding for the past 60 years. the Islamic infrastructure can now legally and officially fill the streets with "Kill the Jews" speeches without any retribution b/c it's "free speech".

meanwhile Ehud Olmert, the former PM of Israel seems to be supporting the UN's decision. and considering her former record, Tzipi Livni might also announce full support sometime soon.

US and Israel unsuccessfully tried to avert this move by the UN and Europeans.

This is a wonderful development. If they manage to secure Palestine, they will only demand more. Tensions between the Abrahamic faiths should be encouraged to keep them all from looking at us.

[RamaY]

Question to gurus

Please see the rendering in this Telugu news paper article http://epaper.sakshi.com/epaperimages/3 ... 345734.JPG

You can figure out who is Israel and who is Palestine using the color palette

My question is - Is this a correct representation? If so why people are worried about Palastina? It is a dying ideology.

[Vayutuvan]

Sachin ji

Here is a take from Nightwatch which lays out what Palestine gained in terms of wiggle room. On the face of it, it looks like a major boost to Palestine. Hoping that it is a good development even though Nighwatch is projecting it to be bad for US security.

State of Palestine: The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday voted to upgrade the status of the Palestinian Authority. Henceforth, the UN will treat the Authority as a non-member observer state, instead of as an entity. The vote was 138 delegates in favor of the measure, nine against and 41 abstentions.

Comment: US State Department and the US Permanent Representative to the UN have been humiliated in one of the worst defeats of US diplomacy in the modern era. The US diplomats failed to persuade US allies to vote with the US. It is a setback for Israel's negotiating position.

Some news pundits have called it a symbolic victory. Actually that is quite wide of the mark. The Palestinian State will now be an equal - in the UN - negotiating partner with Israel, rather than an inferior.

The positions of the negotiators are forever changed. As a state, Palestine is entitled to a much wider range of international support than as an entity. It is freed from dependence on the largesse of Arab states, the US, the West and non-governmental organizations. It has the authority to negotiate on its own, without Israel permission.

It also may be recognized as a belligerent by other states, entitling it to provision of arms. It also means that Israel's sea blockade of Gaza may be judged an act of war, rather than an act to contain a renegade entity. Airspace controls also may be affected. As for ground borders, Egypt can negotiate with the Palestinian state about how to control the border in Sinai, rather than with Israel.

Palestine also can negotiate directly with Iran and Sudan to ensure the supply of arms through Egypt. No UN member needs, ex officio, to work with or through Israel, henceforth, in dealing with or helping the Palestinians.

This is a diplomatic and strategic calamity for the US Department of State and its UN mission and for Israel. Its full consequences will become clearer over time, but US national security interests have taken a major hit.