Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

[ramana]

EVM and NREG crumbs so they can loot.

[muraliravi]

So they win local elections in just 7 states but somehow sweep the national polls!! Strange. Not.

The map is wrong, congress also rules kerala, uttaranchal and now in even in himachal. But of these 10 states, except maharastra, andhra, kerala and assam, everything every other state has less than 5 seats in lok sabha

[rajithn]

Thats still less than a third of all the states of India. Thats why the EVM Magic theory doesn't sound so much like CT anymore. Even if they agreed to a paper trail, when would an audit or validation kick in? The CONs have funnelled away 1000's and 1000's of crores of our money away - this is not just used to provide for the lifestyle of the feudal lords..I am sure a lot of it comes back to play prior to elections. Paid media, paid p-secs, paid goons, paid techies to manipulate software, paid polls/stats yada yada yada...

So from a pure money power point of view perhaps no other political party has command over so much money.

Then what chance does the Indian, who is sick and tired of these guys, stand in getting them voted out of power? When all they have to do is to buy out the voting rural groups with schemes like NREGs and others besides their own hard cash. (Even after all the so called Election Commission rules on money's roles in elections, do any one of you recall the bags of cash seized from the top of a mofussil bus in Tamilnadu? Supposedly, the money belonged to Alagiri but they could not arrest anyone in the bus as all of them claimed ignorance as to who's bags they were. As if they would come forward and own up? This is besides the Tata Sumo that was also seized with lakhs or crores in cash)

There is a lot of Indian political money in the Un*A*E as well as Mauritius. Cash that is brought in when needed by any means possible.

[Prem]

ack thoo on the slaves...

Who are these Kubudhi Mundhbudhi, Gundhbudhi Fellas in the Court of the Queen of the Qali Qartoots?

[yogendra]

X-Posted from Delhi Outrage thread.

yognedra, Gujarat has shown that urbanisation is on fast track.
And 2026 is long ways to go. Shame on India if they let the vinal INC politicians in power till then.

There is a chicken or egg problem in taking the Gujarat model of development based politics outside.

For urbanisation to pick up pace across India and yield political dividends like Gujarat, Modi will have to win decisively initially to have a free hand. But for Modi to win decisively, the country as a whole (especially the 440 seats in rural areas) will have to vote for development initially without yet having tasted it like people in Gujarat. A little bit of polarisation might be required initially and that will be taken care of by Modi baiters themselves.

Hopefully all this protest converts into either the political class (across the board) waking up to new realities or aggressive voting for Modi in the coming year. Any other option would indeed be a shaming experience.

[ramana]

Did you get the fact that the poor girl was from rural India searching for a better life in the urban. Her rape and murder is a blow to rural aspirations in a way in urban India.

[yogendra]

I get that Ramanaji.

But the question in my mind is whether that aspiration can convert into a trust that Modi can deliver development as compared to to other politicians who deliver patronage. Would it carry over all across India.

Or I would put the same question this way, what would the girls relative who are still in rural area vote for next election? I certainly hope that they would be able see past the caste/patronage of the current system and vote for development. But I am not sure.

The urban voters matter only for 20% of the lok sabha seats. I am confident that unlike last time after 26/11, there would be more numbers coming out to vote in the urban centers. Yet that is not enough.

[Sanku]

aggressive voting for Modi in the coming year. Any other option would indeed be a shaming experience.

60% + (a statistic pulled from my musharraf based on my personal understanding) of the protestors will quail at the prospect of voting a party to power which they have been brainwashed into believing is a anti-minority, anti-women, party, same as taliban.

The real reason that the protests needed to happen is that the protesters are, and continue to be clueless (with all due respect to their sentiments)

I dont see any gyan coming the way of common man middle class or otherwise, any time soon.

[Theo_Fidel]

.....which they have been brainwashed into believing is a anti-minority, anti-women, party, same as taliban.

That is not entirely true. NM's misfortune is that he rules GJ and no one looks to GJ for national leadership. UP definitely, MH yes, even PJ/HY, perhaps a common candidate from the 4 south states. NM can't even get MH to back him politically, how is he going to get the nation to back him.

When push comes to shove and a bad choice has to be selected out of all bad ones, no one knows how he will behave. We have one example where things quickly got out of hand. NM really hasn't been tested since in ways he will be on the national stage. I simply don't know how he will react.

There is a certain comfort to the central government being clueless and incompetent and do nothing almost by the Hippocratic oath.

[yogendra]

Lets be hopeful sanku sir.

I have seen enough people in my circle who have come up to me in the last six months and state that they would vote for Modi in the next election. These were people who last election were hardcore congress supporters arguing into the night about the superiority of the gandhi system with distinguished leaders like MMS, kapil sibal, pranab mukherjee, chidambaram etc etc ably assisting the renunciator.

The urban votes will go for Modi this time. (Please note I am not saying BJP)

Its the rural votes that bothers me. It needs to substantially move across caste to Modi for him to be able to have the power to effect change required to be voted back the next term. A rag tag coalition of many parties would be detrimental to Modi as then he would be reduced to just one more animal in the political circus. That in my opinion is worse than sitting in the opposition as then Modi will no longer be Modi. So his strategic maneuvering area is reduced immensely as his coalition partners would have to be very pro development or pro hindutva and as a result he would have to be more picky than UPA.

[Kakkaji]

.....which they have been brainwashed into believing is a anti-minority, anti-women, party, same as taliban.

That is not entirely true. NM's misfortune is that he rules GJ and no one looks to GJ for national leadership. UP definitely, MH yes, even PJ/HY, perhaps a common candidate from the 4 south states. NM can't even get MH to back him politically, how is he going to get the nation to back him.

Theo Sir:

The Father of the Nation, the one who provided leadership to the independence movement, was from GJ. So was the man who integrated the princely states into independent India.

The man who was elected leader of the first non-Congress GOI, coming out of the dark days of the emergency, was also from GJ

So, IMHO, it is a fallacy to think that people would not look to GJ for national leadership.

[Arjun]

A two-month old article - but highly relevant nevertheless:

Why The Numbers Are Stacked Against The Congress in 2014

It’s an old cliché no doubt, but elections often are about numbers, mathematics and cold calculations. Yes, charisma, ideology, policies and campaigning strategy do matter. But at the end of the day, it really boils down to numbers. That is the reason why the Republican challenger Mitt Romney looks all set to lose badly to Barack Obama on November 6 when Americans vote for a new President. He is losing despite the terrible economic situation in the United States since Obama took over in January 2009. Obama should have lost, but it is numbers that are working for him. Republican ideology, particularly the hard line attitude of the faithful, has alienated huge chunks of voters. Women, students, blacks and Hispanics are overwhelmingly against Republicans and will vote for Obama. The number of these groups of voters will surely outnumber the angry white voters who will vote for Romney.

Of course India is vastly different from US. And of course, elections are still – at least officially – far away in 2014. But even at this early a stage, it is easy to see why the numbers appear stacked against the Congress in 2014. And that is the reason why Sonia Gandhi and her advisors and strategists are a worried lot. I am not talking just about the impact of the serial scams like Commonwealth Games, 2G, airport privatisation, Coalgate and the latest irrigation scam in Maharashtra. I am not talking just about the venomous bite of inflation that is destroying household budgets. I am not talking just about the manner in which Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has become the butt of jokes and cruel humour despite the recent and futile efforts of some sections of the media to portray him as a decisive leader. I am not talking just about the damage that reluctant allies like Mulayam Yadav, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar and Karunanidhi will inflict during the run up to 2014 even as they prop up the tottering UPA regime. All these things will have an impact on Congress’ fortunes in 2014. No doubt about that. But it is the curse of cold, hard numbers that could have a more dangerous impact.

Before we get into the analysis of the cold, hard numbers, let us first take a cold, hard look at the factors that led to the triumph of the Congress and the UPA in 2009. Everybody talks about how the jholawallah advisors of Sonia Gandhi who comprise the National Advisory Council crafted the Congress victory of 2009 by coming up with schemes like NREGA. Then there was the Rs.600 billion farm loan waiver announced in 2009. If you believe these played a decisive role in 2009, you are misinformed and wrong. Overwhelmingly rural states – where you would expect to find grateful beneficiaries of NREGA and farm loan amnesties – like Odisha, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh did not give a lot of seats to the Congress. Including Uttar Pradesh, the Congress managed just 46 out of 195 seats from these states in 2009. In fact, the Congress and the UPA did amazingly well in urban constituencies in 2009. It won 13 out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats on offer in Delhi and Mumbai. That performance was last seen perhaps in 1984 when Rajiv Gandhi swept India in the aftermath of the assassination of Indira Gandhi. So fact number one is that Congress did fabulously in urban centers.

Fact number two is the massive vote against the Left in West Bengal and Kerala that gave Congress and the UPA 39 out of 62 seats in 2009 in these two states. Fact number three is the strong alliances that gave a lot of seats to the UPA in 2009. In West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra, the Congress and the UPA managed to win a massive 98 out of 159 seats in 2009. And who can forget fact number four – YSR Reddy who, along with the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM), gave the Congress a spectacular 34 out of 42 seats in Andhra. In 2009, YSR was clearly the incumbent hero who simply swept aside all opposition despite loud whispers of numerous scams and instances of crony capitalism. The last factor is the suicidal behaviour of the BJP that gave the Congress 20 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan in 2009.

Add up all these facts and it is easy to figure out how the Congress won 206 Lok Sabha seats and how the UPA won a decisive majority in 2009.

And now comes the curse of cold numbers. Sonia Gandhi and her advisors are painfully aware that there is simply no way that the urban voter will repeat her 2009 preferences. A series of scams have unquestionably and badly dented the image of the Congress amongst urban voters. Sure, governments facing charges of corruption have been re-elected. Consider YSR Reddy of the Congress in 2009 and the Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab in 2012. But this time, the stench of corruption and its fallout is so pervasive that the Congress is almost certainly staring at a Bofors like situation. Mind you, Rajiv Gandhi was deeply popular across the nation in 1989 when his party slumped from 413 odd seats to about 150 odd seats. He was certainly more popular than Rahul Gandhi is today. Add the ravaging effect of inflation to the series of scams and you have one hell of an angry urban voter.

Despite the best efforts of this government, or perhaps because of its utter lack of sincere efforts, food inflation stubbornly stays above the double-digit mark. This has created havoc with household budgets. Add a very high interest rate regime and the soaring cost of home and retail loans and you worsen the mood of the urban electorate. The latest and absolutely stupid decision to ration LPG cylinders is yet another blow. Quite simply, the Congress has blown away its urban chances. Can you honestly see the Congress winning 13 out of 13 seats from Delhi and Mumbai in 2014? Even die hard Congress supporters will think you are a nut case if you believe so. Why the articulate spokesperson of the Congress Manish Tiwari will be damned lucky if can manage to retain his Ludhiana seat!

Then let’s come to the allies. Mamata Bannerji has already walked away. So the Congress can kiss goodbye to West Bengal in 2014, both for itself and the UPA. At the time of going to press, the crisis triggered by the resignation of Maharahstra Deputy Chief Minister and Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar because of the irrigation scam had not been resolved. The NCP and the Congress have always been uneasy allies. The unease and distrust will widen during the run up to 2014. What about Tamil Nadu? Well, it is not just Karunanidhi but the entire DMK cadre which is hopping mad at the Congress for the manner in which DMK leaders like Kanimozhi and D. Raja were jailed for months for the 2G scam while not a single Congress leader was touched.

In a recent State of the Nation survey conducted by our sister publication The Sunday Indian, some of the results were extraordinary. To a question as to whom they would prefer as the next Prime Minister of India, an overwhelming majority of DMK supporters said they would prefer Narendra Modi over Rahul Gandhi. Do remember, the Congress and the UPA had won 98 out of 159 seats in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Maharashtra. That appears virtually impossible today. Why, the Congress and the UPA will be lucky to retain even 50 out of this 98.

Now comes the last bit of the cold, hard numbers. The Congress has to make up big time in other states and with other voters, if urban voters and allies will lead to a huge fall in numbers. But where exactly will these numbers come from? There are only three states where the Congress has any hope or chance of improving its tally. They are Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka which together account for 53 seats. The Congress won just 8 out of these 53 in 2009. A superb performance will lead to a gain of about 22 seats. But then, the Congress has 33 out of 42 seats in Andhra, 9 out of 10 in Haryana, 20 out of 25 in Rajasthan, 8 out of 13 in Punjab and 5 out of 5 in Uttarakhand. Of course, 2014 is still far away. But as these cold, hard and unforgiving numbers clearly suggest, Sonia Gandhi and her advisors know that the bells have started tolling for the immediate future of the Congress and Rahul Gandhi. Of course spectacular comebacks are always possible in politics. It is entirely possible that Narendra Modi loses Gujarat and the Prime Minister actually becomes decisive, assertive and articulate!

[Muppalla]

Arjun ji,

A lot about UPA's win/loss in 2014 depends on how INC manipulates the divisions in AP, Maha and Karnataka (yes karnataka). I will write some details in the Elections thread later.

[abhishek_sharma]

From facebook

[devesh]

.....which they have been brainwashed into believing is a anti-minority, anti-women, party, same as taliban.

That is not entirely true. NM's misfortune is that he rules GJ and no one looks to GJ for national leadership. UP definitely, MH yes, even PJ/HY, perhaps a common candidate from the 4 south states. NM can't even get MH to back him politically, how is he going to get the nation to back him.

When push comes to shove and a bad choice has to be selected out of all bad ones, no one knows how he will behave. We have one example where things quickly got out of hand. NM really hasn't been tested since in ways he will be on the national stage. I simply don't know how he will react.

There is a certain comfort to the central government being clueless and incompetent and do nothing almost by the Hippocratic oath.

even otherwise intelligent and sensible people seem to become utterly smitten with secular paranoia, when it comes to Modi?

what is it in Modi, what feature, what characteristic, that evokes such total mind-numbing stasis in the secularists and the JLN/INC/p-sec loyalists?

[Sanku]

even otherwise intelligent and sensible people seem to become utterly smitten with secular paranoia, when it comes to Modi?

what is it in Modi, what feature, what characteristic, that evokes such total mind-numbing stasis in the secularists and the JLN/INC/p-sec loyalists?

Actually Theo ji proved my point, I basic point was, that despite the overwhelming brilliance of NaMo's leadership and progress and well being in Gujarat, and despite the overall 10x+ record of BJP in governance, anywhere and everywhere -- the liberal classes of India fail to realize that the INC mechanism is taking them for a ride, and they are getting shafted.

That is true for the so called liberal protesters, their heart may be in the right places, but they have left their heads behind in the class room when they were being fed the poison of falsehoods that abound in our schools.

I am sorry to say that Theo-ji just showed that I was not talking rot, his example of a liberal well meaning India, still unfortunately caught under previously created stereotypes in looking at the world -- is precisely what I had in mind.

India has lot of Theo-ji's, almost there, but caught up in few prejudices.

[Y I Patel]

Much as there is to admire in Modi as a person, we must not forget that he is really a product (or a symptom) of forces much larger than him; forces that have produced a series indegenously influenced leaders in Gujarat. IMHO Gujarat has benefitted by being at the preiphery of empires after the Mughals were pushed out. Most significantly, the British influence was very light, and expressed mainly through residents/agents to the local kingdoms and ICS types. So Gujaratis were left more to our own devices than other states, and were in a much better position to develop indegenous strains of leadership. To add to this, very importantly, through the efforts of social reformists such as Swaminarayan sampraday and continuing to contmporary times with activists like Pandurang Maharaj, the caste lines are relatively blurred compared to other regions. Also, despite the post-Independence history of communal turmoil, there is a history of much greater coopreation between Hindus and Muslims. Finally, there is a long seated history of a socially and politically active business community.

The sum of all of these positive infuences has lead to a presense of a better developed and relatively cohesive middle class. There was, like in the rest of the country, a phase when caste-based politics reigned supereme, and of course the best known model was the KHAM strategy that came crashing down in the mid-80s and could never be put together again. I have talked about this before, but it continues to bear reiteration especially at times like this when the local system seems to produce a personality with a strategy so much at contrast with existing national power systems. And the primary benefit of proceeding from this base is that it explains Modi's continued success at developing a post-caste, middle class based strategy. To wit, he was successful because his efforts were in fertile territory.

But now he faces a huge inflexion point. While there may be other areas in India that share a roughly similar socio-political mileu, the fact that such areas are geographically discrete and have their own local systems and power structures makes the transition to national leadership a complex challenge for Modi. He will face the necessity of having to evolve from being a regional satrap operating in a favorable melieu to a national coalition builder who can identify similarly aligned satraps and convince them that he would be the most suitable primus-inter-pares. Simultaneously, he will have to fight those in his party and outside who have garnered so much power for themselves by exploiting the current political model. In this context, I feel that his involvemnt in a deeply entrenched caste-based political system such as UP would be a really bad idea, and probably put forward by someone who wishes to see him pulled down in a quagmire of caste-based and communal politics. He would be much better served if he develops cooperative relationships with other satraps. It is too much to expect one man to transcend the political reality of such a complex country in his lifetime, and his future now can take one of two paths: he can try to be maximum leader and impose his vision on the rest of the country as a did in Gujarat, by fighting election one ward at a time. IMHO that is too big a bite even for him, but he can leave behind his mark even if he fails gloriously but manages to recreate BJP after his vision. The second path is the one I outlined, which is to continue to swim with the tide of a rising middle class through a coalition building strategy. That would be a surer bet to national power, and I sense that he has started taking the first steps in that direction.

[Sushupti]

How rapists are efficiently taken off the streets forever, in NaMo's Gujarat http://t.co/ih6QGVCU

[Y I Patel]

A second post to comment on an unrelated point - Tavleen Singh is very perceptive, but she errs in crediting Modi with developing the Asmita meme. Gujarati Asmita as a meme has been around for a while now, and plays well in local politics at least since the sixties i.e. before I was born (just to make sure I do not sound even older than I actually am )

[kittoo]

How rapists are efficiently taken off the streets forever, in NaMo's Gujarat http://t.co/ih6QGVCU

Laughed out loud in the morning when I was watching NDTV having a program on rapes etc. Guess which state they focused on to show in bag light? Nowadays they are so predictable its funny.

[Sanku]

It is too much to expect one man to transcend the political reality of such a complex country in his lifetime, and his future now can take one of two paths: he can try to be maximum leader and impose his vision on the rest of the country as a did in Gujarat, by fighting election one ward at a time. IMHO that is too big a bite even for him, but he can leave behind his mark even if he fails gloriously but manages to recreate BJP after his vision. The second path is the one I outlined, which is to continue to swim with the tide of a rising middle class through a coalition building strategy. That would be a surer bet to national power, and I sense that he has started taking the first steps in that direction.

YIP-ji, tussi great ho. That is the reality that I have been trying to convey so hard, and which in turn explains the actions of other past greats of our time, including Sardar Patel and ABV, but of course, you have presented that rationality so simply and brilliantly, that I hope, some folks would learn and understand. Without understanding the problem, its contours and complexities, a suitable solution is never seen, and anything but a grand final solution is not considered worthwhile. Major logical traps.

Let us hope that people see what we are up against here really, and understanding the reality does not bring despair, but resolve and fortitude.

[Y I Patel]

Thank you very much for the kind words, Sanku. Yes, what I do want to convey amid this wave of adulation for NM is that he is an exceptional product, but a product nevertheless, of his circumstances. And extrapolating his success to the rest of the country is going to be really really hard.

But at the same time, it is not a simple matter of Narendra Modi versus the Dynasty. What we are really seeing is the conflict between two different political models, one that is representative newly emerging socio-political trends and one that that reflects its recent past and ongiong socio-political structures. The real cause of optimism is that the Dynasty is on the wrong side of history. If not NM, there will be someone else like him who will ride the tides that finally put an end to the Dynasty.

[Hari Seldon]

V perceptive, v true, YIP saab.

However in defense of NM fans (and I'll admit to unabashedly being one), none here really expects a smooth ride ahead. UPA3 remains the most likely prospect post 2104 polls, we admit.

NM is an idea and I fear its time is yet to come for a large part of the rest of India. Still, rather than wallow in gloom and doom, its good to bask in the sunlight of the idea that is NM. Only.

There are a few more state polls where the Moditva model may well come through (Rajasthan, hopefully and maybe, urban middle-class dilli) and through its deeds on the ground keep the idea and the flame alive amid the gathering darkness of the dynasty/ caste-psec/ vote bank model epitomized by the UPA.

Jai ho and std disclaimers apply. Only.

[Arjun]

Some excellent statistics here - all of which point to long-term systemic trends favorable to the rise of Moditva: The urban middle class is now a huge political force

One of the big messages coming through from the Gujarat elections is that the middle class is up and running. The only reason why Narendra Modi won big this time too was the urban middle class voter. In the five major cities of Gujarat – Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, Bhavnagar and Rajkot – the BJP won 40 of the 44 seats. It was not Modi’s alleged communalism that got him his vote, but his ability to woo the “neo-middle class” urban voter with talk about governance. Unlike the Congress, which promised the usual freebies, he won without freebies.

While Gujarat may be a special case, since it is 43 percent urban, the fact is India is already 32 percent urban, and this ratio is rising fast.

As noted before in Firstpost, the Indian middle class will swell to 267 million (26.7 crore) over the next five years. Most of these numbers will be urban. The bulk of them will be in the southern and western states. By 2030, India will have 600 million people living in urban areas – up from around 350 million right now.

Tony Joseph, writing in Business Standard, puts better numbers to the middle class to explain the huge surge in recent urban protests. He writes: “The middle class has sensed that its period of political irrelevance is over, with its numbers growing at a phenomenal pace. They make up about 15 percent of the population today, up from 5.7 percent in 2001-02, according to the NCAER. The projections are even more stunning: 20.3 percent by 2015-16, and 37.2 percent by 2025-26. No wonder, the middle class has begun to behave as if it has wind at its back, and it wants to take the nation’s future in its hands and shape it.”

The first political party that gets this will be in line to obtain most of urban India’s votes. That’s 180 MPs to boot.

The urban middle class genie cannot be put back into the bottle of political apathy.

So- the urban population is currently at 32%. Middle class is at 15% & expected to go upto 37% by 2025.

Jagannathan mentions 180 urban MPs - that's different from the 120 that was thrown around in 2009. Is this increase due to delimitation? That again is a huge positive for Modi.

[yogendra]

180 is a wrong number. A little over 100 is the correct number of lok sabha seats representing urban centers. The next delimitation will happen on 2026.

[Theo_Fidel]

Actually Theo ji proved my point, I basic point was, that despite the overwhelming brilliance of NaMo's leadership and progress and well being in Gujarat, and despite the overall 10x+ record of BJP in governance, anywhere and everywhere -- the liberal classes of India fail to realize that the INC mechanism is taking them for a ride, and they are getting shafted.

Here in S.TN, far from the brilliance of NM, he seems just like any other Neta. Gujarat definitely does not seem 10x India and is in fact not even the #1 state in India economically. One of Modi's true handicaps is his fanboi's who turn him into bhagwan when he is nothing of the kind. He is a man and at some point if he wants to be PM he has to say what he will do in places like S.TN. And no, we have no interest in becoming another GJ, what ever that means.

If I were NM, I would focus on getting MH to follow himself politically. If he can't even get MH to go along, he is doomed.

And NO UPA3 is not certain, what is more likely is complete anarchy with no majority for anyone. At which point buying and selling will become the order of the day.

[Sanku]

Here in S.TN, far from the brilliance of NM, he seems just like any other Neta. Gujarat definitely does not seem 10x India and is in fact not even the #1 state in India economically..

The whole point Theoji is what you are saying, how to make the perception match reality. That is the key.

Unfortunately it is not given, lot of NaMo fans thinks because he is good, he will be perceived as good. Unfortunately not.

Maha following NaMo or Delhi urban middle class realizing that BJP is their future (when it is) -- are things that should happen, but will they? Different questions.

[Arjun]

Here in S.TN, far from the brilliance of NM, he seems just like any other Neta.

There are enough opinion polls as to where Modi's popularity stands in large urban centers - and the answer is clearly at #1.

South TN is probably not very urban - can't comment about that region.

[Theo_Fidel]

OK. Can you show me these polls.
Is the popularity strong enough that people will vote that way?

[Arjun]

OK. Can you show me these polls.
Is the popularity strong enough that people will vote that way?

A couple of surveys conducted this year:

Urban India votes for Narendra Modi as PM

Who should be next PM?

[Theo_Fidel]

OK. But it also says just 27% will back the BJP. how are you going to form a government that way? This is what I mean when I say he needs to get politics on his side.

[Sanku]

OK. But it also says just 27% will back the BJP.

As I have myself said before, I am somewhat worried about people supporting the right party/candidates, and I do not think the current anguish will lead to right behavior of electorate.

That said --

In India thats not a bad number. 27% overtly agreeing for a party is significant. This is not a US style two donkey race.

[Hari Seldon]

Heck, anyone remember how much ABV was demonized before he actually became PM. All sorts of things, RSS connections, Hindutva swear words were flung at the man through out the 90s. Have we forgotten the 1-LS vote defeat for ABV's 13-day govt?

IMHO, a lot of this misinformed scepticism and venom against NM is along similar lines. Perhaps.

Anyway, 2014 UPA-3 is the most likely comeback horse. How stable it will be is another issue. They will continue to run (ruin?) the country into the ground as now. I don;t see any new game-changing ideas or vision or implementation record anywhere in the galaxy of netas that UPA represents to fix our current trajectory. And by 2019, the UPA and whatever combination of secular parities it throws up will have run out of excuses for misgovernance. The NDA states and Guj especially will be have an enviable record to showcase by then anyway. Perhaps, then the country will be ready to embrace a genuine alternative to the UPA model. Or so I hope. Time will tell, only.

[Arjun]

OK. But it also says just 27% will back the BJP. how are you going to form a government that way?

INC vote share percentage across India in 2009 was 28.5%.

[yogendra]

Urban India votes for Narendra Modi as PM
This was conducted in August 2012 and is focused on Urban areas

While 42% of respondents wanted Modi as the next PM, only 29% were for Rahul Gandhi. Nitish Kumar got 12% in his favour.

If elections were held now, 27% potential voters would go with the saffron party, while only 18% would choose Congress. The dislike for the Congress is such that 46% respondents said they would not vote for a Congress led by Rahul Gandhi. PM Manmohan Singh's ratings are even poor. Almost 68% believe his performance ranges from average to very poor, even though 66% feel he is non-corrupt but tolerates corrupt ministers.

While people here are giving a chance for congress to comeback with just 18%, why does BJP require more than 27% to have a shot?
And note the even wider difference between vote for personalities instead of party. Modi-42%, Rahul-29%.

The urban landscape can be converted to saffron with some work at the ground level and by just making sure that people go out to vote. But unfortunately that only account for a 100+ seats. For the other 440 seats, caste lines and vote blocks still rule. To convert that landscape is more difficult while banking on only the development plank. It might actually require 2 successive shots to convert. Or soft polarisation+development for rural areas might be the mantra.

Modi is not just a product, he is also a brand. And despite Gujarat's many advantages that shaped Modi (as excellently stated by YIPatelji), there is only one Modi. That suggests to me that a correlation is being mistaken for a causation. If Modi was only a product of his time & place then there would be many more contenders within Gujarat with the qualities of Modi. Can you point one from the old guard where this is true?

I am looking at the 2014 elections as a beginning of the road for Modi - nationally speaking. Not the end of a road. It might even be wise to sit out in the opposition as 'Modi' than try and convince secular parties after the election to support the coalition as a 'politician'. That would make him just one more animal. The NDA coalition that goes to polls should be the one that wins the required 272 else no point working up a rag tag coalition after the votes are cast. It will be detrimental for Modi & BJP in the longer term.

For people against dynasty, you can either have the choice of your person (Modi vs Others) or choice of your time (2014 vs 2016 or further). The system is not flexible - in terms of people's aspirations and voting patterns - to give you both the choice at once. So be patient and hopeful. Don't have to go for all or nothing mantra.

[Theo_Fidel]

Rahul got 29%!! Holy karma. We are doomed only.

[Singha]

might be wiser for Modi to sit from 2014-2019 as leader of the BJP in oppn bench, clean the BJP internally, get rid of dead wood like lohpurush with all retiral benefits and build his own brand nationally. let the INC make more of a fool of itself infront of the nation as its doing so well now. let discontent rise more. even better if yuvraj is made PM...but I feel madam will hide his real (lack of ) capability by making him just INC president.

a rash advance ahead of logistics and arty range has brought many a good general to grief.

mahabharat type battles between huge coalitions are not won in a day even with god on one side. there is a process, a passage of time needed to weaken or eliminate key chieftains before final victory can be won. even jayadratha took arjuna+krishna a whole day to finish off and that with a trick sunset at the end to bypass the last remaining line of warriors.

first take control of key areas like MH, AP and TN and use these for the next tet offensive.

make it clear to folks like nitish and didi who are constantly asking for no-repay bailouts there is no free meal - they can either get real and expect low interest bailouts and metrics to be met and be given due respect as great warriors or be on the INC dole and be disrespected and continue to be treated worse than the orcs who roam the dark hallways of INC-mordor central.

[yogendra]

a rash advance ahead of logistics and arty range has brought many a good general to grief.

Thank you for putting it nicely.

He might not have to wait till 2019. With the anti congress wave present currently, even if NDA/BJP does not come to power, the party in power will be third front of 'secular' parties with outside Cong support or a badly battered congress with lesser voice in the UPA. Either way, 2 years would be the shelf life. I just don't want Modi supporters to get unduly disappointed in 2014 if results don't match their expectation. It will take more time and patience and more work.

But I sure do hope that 2014 will be the time.

Basically, Modi should cement the alliance before the poll and make it clear that if NDA does not muster enough seats they will sit it out and wont be making new alliances. It is a far tougher task as your pre poll allies will also have to be strengthened enough to not waver post poll. But doable.

[pentaiah]

YIP Saar ji a very happy new year to you
Why this Agnyath vaas?

[Hari Seldon]

As always singha saab's writing has a way with words only.

Yes, NM will first have to consolidate hold over the party before he can storm the Dilli sultanate. A good start will be becoming BJP prez in 2013, perhaps?