Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XII

Gurneesh · Post by **Gurneesh** » 16 Jan 2013 10:22

Two doubts:

1) When India has satellite surveillance wouldn't Chinese also have it. I mean when we are monitoring their missiles won't they be monitoring ours. So the chinese may not be oblivious to our missile launches towards their missile launchers and thus wouldn't they expedite their launches ?

2) One of the most recent scenario posts describes attacks on a Chinese airbase where a AWACS gets destroyed. Wouldn't the AWACS have picked up incoming missiles on its radar ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2013 11:28

about point 2) if the awacs was the ground its radar would be off due to radiation hazard. all radars are shut on planes which have landed. there is usually a radiation hazard sign near the nosecone of fighters also.
the awacs in the air could likely have tracked the missiles coming in from the edge of space but maybe they were off duty and had shut down in preparation for landing.

on a more visual note, perhaps the awacs in the book could be seen heading for landing W->E facing a darkening sky and the pilots actually see the glowing RVs fall from space onto the targets...

like here: silent death... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaLvTZqXNmU

during a A3 test, a garuda airlines plane flying at 30,000ft off Sumatra had not got the notam and was shocked to see the flaming warhead coming down like the above.

Misraji · Post by **Misraji** » 16 Jan 2013 11:58

I am afraid I am not apologetic for my stance on nukes.

PA SSG cuts off the head of our soldier.
Sure. Go ahead and cut off ten of theirs.

Our parliament was attacked. Yup they deserve to be thrashed with a war. Too bad it never happened.
Mumbai attacks. Same again.

Nuclear weapons. Nope. I do not hold the same amount of jingoism for them.
Sure. We were attacked first.
However one of my main priorities would be to ensure that no more civilians are killed while attaining victory.

All I have heard so far is empty rhetoric, chest-beating and calls for vengeance while not having a clue about what its consequences would be.
Since nobody here has proved that victory without nuclear weapons is not possible I would continue to think that is possible

So. Again. I would like to know what kind of deliberations the CCS went through.

1. Did they say: We don't know who ordered this strike. They may still be alive.
We need to strike now.

If so: Why did we not strike at 2nd Artillery's positions?
Those are valid military targets which would ensure that their nuclear posture is weakened.
Moreover since they would earmark some of their nuclear weapons for US and other contingencies
all we would have to do is to reduce their numbers accordingly. We would not have to destroy each and every nuke.

2. Did they say: If we limit to these targets, we would probably not have a retaliation back.
Why? Because these are valid military targets without significant civilian population centers nearby.

3. Did they try to talk to the Chinese government saying that we would strike at their civilian centers with our next strike.

4. Did they say: Okie. We know that we would have retaliatory strikes inbound.
Lets evacuate Delhi, Mumbai etc. But a casualty of 6 million people is an acceptable loss.
We cannot afford to lose our face to the world.

5. Were they worried about Pakistan's nuclear posture. Who was monitoring that?
Did they take into account the fact that if our cities were destroyed, Pakistan would jump at the chance to finish
off the rest of major cities like Bangalore, Chennai etc.

Did they say: The loss of another 4 million Indians is still acceptable.
We cannot afford to lose our face to the world.

6. What were the other super-powers doing?
Given that China is the manufacturing center of the world and we the IT center, I would be hard pressed to think that they would be sitting silent.

Did America pressure us? If you respond with nuke attacks, we will sanction you guys and not provide any help in the aftermath.
If you don't respond, we will ensure that China is forced to surrender.

Did the CCS say: We don't care about victory.
We cannot afford to lose our face to the world.

--Ashish

PS: Damn. Thats an year's worth of post. Sorry guys ...

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Jan 2013 12:37

Singha wrote:I think its only by a miracle that out of 65 planned launches of DF-15/DF-21 with nuke warheads , only 2 landed and that too in bhutan. counterforce plays against road mobile TELARs in mountainous/vast terrain using only conventional warheads is a low margin game in my opinion even with near realtime GMTI sensors (how powerful can be the small heron sensor?). missile prep and fire time from high readiness condition is only around 15 mins, same as the transit time of A2/A1 from north india to reach there.

imo in a real war we'd be LUCKY to get away by destroying maybe 30% of the planned launches .... so around 40 nukes would already have hit major indian military bases and communication hubs.

if we want eye:eye response, we would be very warranted now in unleashing atleast that number on chinese mil and logistic targets in TAR, sinkiang, and the feeder areas in gansu, qinghai and further east....throw in a couple of well populated towns as well as a revenge for bhutan.

any PM of india who doesnt do his duty to defend his country in a measured way is unfit for the chair, should be deposed by the CCS and packed off to a govt bungalow to write his memoirs. sometimes a "general liu" is needed to stiffen weak bones even in India!

Yes, there are many elements of accidents and stroke of goodluck by chance

in play here.

It would be helpful to know what were predesignated primary targets for these 65 Nukes heading for India.
And if as per your estimates 45-50 nukes are able to hit India what cities /military targets would suffer.
And what would be our response to it.
Can we still retain command and control structure to launch effective second strike on China.
Is it possible that many India nuke bases would already have been rendered ineffective after this massive nuke strike. May be they too have taken out civil and military authority and the whole thing is in disarray.

Two , unlucky nukes, that got through , hit only Bhutan. What of they hit Delhi and Mumbai. In one stroke we get rid of Raj Thakre and Corrupt Dilli clowns and all of MSM . And then China declares ceasefire. Would that be good for India or bad? I would have lost many relatives and probably me too. But is that a better sacrifice then nuking China in second strike? Could be their citizens would also be waiting for redemption.

According to one estimates quoted by me , China would have 240-300 functional nuke warheads which could be delivered. Of which some would be on ICBMS /IRBMs and targeted at Other countries. So after getting hit by 50 nukes from China what targets should be selected in China to cripple them from their second strike?

Just loud thinking till Vivek next salvo.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Jan 2013 12:47

Misraji wrote: However one of my main priorities would be to ensure that no more civilians are killed while attaining victory.

--Ashish

Actually there is a better way to ensure peace. Sign boundary agreement with China. Give them what they want and close the chapter at least from our side. Let us be happy with what we get in return. Afterall we are not equal to them and they are far more advanced than us. So it does make sense to concede their claims and live in peace and one piece.

Nothing could be attained by Nuking China or getting Nuked by them.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 16 Jan 2013 13:05

That "Surviving a 50-100 nuke bomb attack" dhaaga went nowhere anyway.....

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 16 Jan 2013 13:13

FWIW I believe besides our disaster management teams and continuity of government efforts, army and paramilitary detachments will be stationed (when the war approaches that tipping point itself) in such a way that some sort of control and succor will be available. Then again, if we are hit with 2+ nukes, it remains to see if chain of command, unit cohesion and discipline breaks down. I mean, say if Cochin is nuked I wonder how effective CRPF Jawan Thomaskutty from Thevara, Kochi would be in maintaining is sanity and discharging his duty at the temporary camp outside the Nuclear Glassland that was once Vishakapattanam.

PS: Stephen King's "The Stand" has a couple of grim scenarios in this vein.... and I bet there are more authoritative studies by Unkil and Poodle and Ivan and Itshak and Chang and ourselves...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Jan 2013 13:55

I dont think our disaster management/NBC/civil defence is anywhere geared to take up a 50 nuke attack, but then neither is any other country. there will be chaos and anarchy for a while but if the Govt and army is able to defend the country and make it out in one piece, order will be restored eventually. our rural areas (food production) and rivers so long as remain uncontaminated we can manage our food and water situation which is first step to keeping order. baki stuff like electricity and roads are fitful anyways. schools/colleges can be kept closed for a few months.
so can non essential offices. banking system & hospitals must be kept up. stock markets can be kept closed. refineries & power plants must continue to operate.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 16 Jan 2013 15:14

I guess I have ruffled some feathers here on the whole Agni preemptive strike scenario. Maybe a few words are in order on that before I proceed further:

a) On the DF-21C launchers:
There are three brigades in play in Tibet at the start of the war. The SFC knows this. They know the launch positions. They know where these units are generally located because of the immense ground security around the launchers. The vehicles are not exactly shoot-and-scoot free-roaming vehicles. Each brigade can be generally located in its area of responsibility. This is unlike the Scuds in Iraq because they were dispersed down at launcher level meaning that location of one launcher by no means revealed the location of the next and so on. Hence the massive requirement for strike Eagles and the low probability of intercept associated with them. This is not the same for the Chinese DF-21C launchers. They are more centrally localized, even if dispersed, if you follow. Which is why the comparison to scud interception rates is IMO very unrealistic in this case. Secondly, they are not currently deployed like the free-roaming soviet ICBM launchers either. These guys have a much lower range and need to be in a general range band from their target in order to reach it. That also forces them to be more localized than ICBM road-mobile launchers.

b) DF-21C SAM security:
There are dedicated low-level and medium-level SAMs around the three Brigades. There are, however, no S-300s left alive by this point in the war in Tibet. One of the reasons why these ballistic missile launchers are pulled far to the north is because the IAF struck down the S-300s around the Lhasa sector after the first week of the war. The scenario explained how the PLAAF and the 2ND Artillery go into spiraling rage at the loss of these systems causing them to reevaluate the missile defenses in Tibet.

c) Chinese Sat coverage over India:
Yes the satellites covering Indian territory are watching for Indian missile locations. As mentioned previously, over 30 of the DF-21Cs were aimed for the Indian missile launch sites as well. They knew where our birds were and we knew theirs. Both sides aimed for each other except that few-minutes advantage given to the Indian side by the "lucky" Heron UAV coverage. And all you really need is in fact just that extra minute! Notice that the DF-21s were lifting off the ground even while indian missiles were landing on their launchers. That does not constitute a gross time advantage to me!

d) The UAV coverage issue:
This seems to be raising quite a few hairs on this forum although I am more confused as to why this is the case. The two nations have been at war for two weeks now. The PLAAF coverage over central and southern Tibet is at an all time low. The 26th Air Division has been struck all over the place and the S-300s are down for the count. Indian high-altitude UAVs operating and collecting very localized battery level information from extreme oblique angles (allowing them to stay outside the range of Chinese smaller range SAMs around the batteries) is frankly very doable. Note that at no point are the Indian commanders seeing anything other than what limited views the UAV optics have. Which means that if they zoom back out to see the whole region, there only way of knowing more than one missile launch is by the smoke trails rising into the sky and not by observing the launchers prior to launch. I think forum members are confusing watching a single launcher from a UAV as the same as watching the entire Brigade positions from the same aircraft. Not the case!

d) Strikes on Bhutan:
Why is the strike on Bhutan being overlooked as something wonderful that has happened since it did not strike Indian soil? Or the fact that thousands of Indian soldiers are dead in Bhutan as a result of these strikes? I am at a loss to understand how, given our relationship to Bhutan and the loss of these Indian lives makes it any different from whether the missiles had struck Leh or some other Indian target. I wonder if the folks here look at the loss of tens of thousands of Bhutanese lives (and the consequent loss of the government control etc in Bhutan) any different from Indian lives? I have seen multiple posts here how somehow we are "lucky"

that the missiles only hit Bhutan! Really? I have no clue what that is about.

Anyway, JMT and all that.

-Vivek

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 16 Jan 2013 15:25

Singha wrote:Gen Liu and his boys did not strike me as careless...
I feel they would generally have organic S300 support as well, which can detect and take out UAV/recce a/c. S300 was designed to be a highly mobile system as shows in the kind of MAZ vehicles used. or atleast a MRSAM and SRSAM units attached for 25km bubble

Not the case. In the field, the 2nd Artillery Brigades, while reporting to the CMC directly with regard to release of nuclear weapons, still depends on the regional PLA and PLAAF commanders for airborne-radar, fighter cover, SAMs and protective radar coverage. But their operations do not fall under PLA/PLAAF control.

So if the PLA/PLAAF air-defense capabilities are diminished, the launchers are as vulnerable as any other military unit on the ground.

Yes, they do have SRSAMs still active around the batteries since those are riding shotgun on the units and have not been struck down by the IAF so far north into Tibet. The S-300s are however terminated. The Herons are far to the south and watching at far more oblique angles (allowing them to stay away from these SRSAMs while still watching the southernmost missile launchers within the brigade AO) to the horizon: which is what then allows them a larger horizon view on their EO optics when the zoom is backed out during the DF-21 launches.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 16 Jan 2013 15:43

Generally speaking, I think the forum here is giving far too much credence to the mobile nature of the launchers on both sides, IMO.

If you look at any past 2nd Artillery Exercises, their launchers are always grouped in small numbers (generally five, plus or minus) for each deployment location. This makes them easier to secure against ground attacks and easier to protect with SAMs. Unless a nuclear free-for-all has already happened, these launchers will not go roaming around on their own. This means that 60 or so launchers at the time the scenario talks about, are in effect between 12-15 launch locations, not 60 independent locations. Even so, each such group of launchers uses one of several launch locations to keep things unpredictable (and the Indian command has no way of knowing which one of these locations is being used except by observing their pattern over the last two weeks), hence the seventy or so Agni launches against 12-15 targets. Many of these missiles would have simply struck empty locations.

Also, the same applies to our side as well. In fact, the DF-21C launcher is actually more rugged than the equivalent Agni truck launchers with more off-road capabilities by the looks of it.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 16 Jan 2013 15:48

Scenario Disclaimer:

Of course, at the end of the day it is fiction and I can only present so much analysis within the posts before it turns into a digressing read. I am stuck with the two choices of either making it fun to read or more technically comprehensive. Balancing the two is a real challenge for me.

I chose the first option. (Although in hindsight, given the technical prowess of the BRFites, I wonder if that was a mistake!)

Maybe after we are done with this scenario I can take some time and go over what analysis and mathematical models I used for each of these issues.

But as I said earlier to Karan M a couple pages ago: everyone is free to trash whatever they want and believe what they want. It is the possible scenarios dhaga, after all.

Regards

-Vivek

vila · Post by **vila** » 16 Jan 2013 16:20

Very well said Vivek. But I believe the discussions are more because we are so passionate about your writing

we forget that's its "Possible .. Scenarios"

. But my 2 pice do you thing anybody I repeat anybody would use 60/70 nukes in one go? MAD is dead.

k prasad · Post by **k prasad** » 16 Jan 2013 16:53

Vivek, more scenario posts please!!! We're waiting eagerly.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 16 Jan 2013 17:01

Vivek what you are doing is a dream for every BRFite , you have not only played around with LCH and shown the capabilities of those 20 Arjuns , but ultimately tested the deterrence theory and shot Agni missiles.

Now the scenario you have written so beautifully that we are living it like a reality , as the scenario will come to end , each and every one of us would like give mold it the way according to individual choice.

Your situation is like the First Captain of First Arihant or First Pilot of First Tejas , we all appreciate you but also jealous as we'd want to be in your seat.

So please don't waste time on giving us explanations but supply as much as of scenario once the scenario is complete we can discuss things about it.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 16 Jan 2013 20:38

2013 Jan 16: 8:30PM

Prime Minister Misra is having dinner with his favorite Parathas and Aloo sabji watching his favorite dance show on Paki TV. He loved watching this show because it reminded him how same same Indians and Pakistanis are. "Damn, these pakis are same same as Indians. They have two legs and two hands. Apparantly majority of Pakis eat Parathas and Aloo sabhi. How close these two civilizations are if not for those hindu fanatic kings who stopped the peaceful islamic excursions many thousands of years ago. How cool it would have been to have a 3rd wife, that too after sending my 2nd son to Jeehad to Jerusalem. Sigh! If only wishes were Camels!.

PM Misra is disturbed by a call from the BSF military check post. He gave clear instructions to BSF to inform him about every peaceful pilgrimage of Pakistani non-state actors into India and ordered no action is take without his explicit permission. But that doesn't mean they should call him when he is watching PakTV and pass the buck, a bunch of useless people!

The BSF jawan on the other side was panting as if he was perplexed by the peace and love shown by his Paki counterparts. "Dear PMji, we have another cross border attack just 10 minutes ago. The Pakis crossed border and we went to meet them with mithais as you advised. While they took the mithais, one Paki shot our Jawan and severed his head and took it away with him as they went back. This is the 18th such incident in this month. What are your orders sir?"

PM Misra couldn't control his displeasure. "What stupid idiots you are. I am firing your Corps Commander with immediate effect. You guys are not listening to your civilian masters and disturbing the fragile peace between our great civilizations. That guy must have said something to the Pakis that must have offended him so much. Perhaps he didn't speak Urdoo, or he didn't wear black salwar kamiz like Pakis. You idiot saffron fanatics".

PM Misra always hated the convoluted and casteist rituals that Indian Army practiced even in this modern age of 2012. They are still not reformed and still have regiments based on their region and caste. He always wondered if he can change the constitution of india for the 786th time so Indian soldiers on its western borders wear the islamic attire while the soldiers on the eastern borders wear the same attire and insigna as PLA. After all we all are humans and should not make visible difference between the soldiers and armies of south Asia. But he was not sure if it is secular because after all secularism came from west so we must follow anything western, perhaps it is better to wait till UK military changes its dress code to salwar kamij.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Jan 2013 21:43

vivek_ahuja wrote: But as I said earlier to Karan M a couple pages ago: everyone is free to trash whatever they want and believe what they want. It is the possible scenarios dhaga, after all.

Sir-ji, I detect a note of getting senti here? Please dont Vivek, we are all loving the narrative, as you well know, and discussing it, as if it was real.

As you said, it was a matter of few minutes that a nuclear holocaust was averted and minimal casualties taken (65 nukes vs 2)

So there is some amount of getting lucky, but in war, luck plays both ways, in some cases we get it, and in some cases others, and as the author you are certainly entitled to decide how to distribute it.

That said, I suppose even if a larger number of DFs would have escaped the ground attack, many of the targets would have been hard, as in defended by at least a S 300/ ABM shield system of our own, so the net impact should have been lesser than 65 detonations, especially considering that we had a warning in terms of the statellites going offline.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Jan 2013 22:03

vivek_ahuja wrote:Scenario Disclaimer:

Of course, at the end of the day it is fiction and I can only present so much analysis within the posts before it turns into a digressing read. I am stuck with the two choices of either making it fun to read or more technically comprehensive. Balancing the two is a real challenge for me.

I chose the first option. (Although in hindsight, given the technical prowess of the BRFites, I wonder if that was a mistake!)

Maybe after we are done with this scenario I can take some time and go over what analysis and mathematical models I used for each of these issues.

But as I said earlier to Karan M a couple pages ago: everyone is free to trash whatever they want and believe what they want. It is the possible scenarios dhaga, after all.

Regards

-Vivek

Well Vivek, what to do when you make us wait for little morsel every now and then. When we press F5 and dont find your post and notice that you have gone to some other dhaagaa then we are left with no other alternative but to discuss mundane matters concerning this war.

So no dislaimer needed here, at least not for me.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 16 Jan 2013 22:21

Sanku ji, we have S 300 ?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Jan 2013 22:33

Manish_Sharma wrote:Sanku ji, we have S 300 ?

Supposedly, for the pre ABM era for anti missile shield . Never confirmed, but often rumors, significant ones.

Bala Vignesh · Post by **Bala Vignesh** » 16 Jan 2013 23:03

Manish_Sharma,
Yup we do have a battery(or was it a squadron??) Of S300, supposedly deployed near Delhi..

I for one would be horrified by the fact that one of our allies who is under our protection got hit by nukes, whose only fault(if you take it that way) was seeking our protection..
What vivek has done in response was quite correct. Let's not forget that while China fights for H&D, we fight for survival. In a country with Billion plus population, 4 million represents less than 0.004%. So while the absolute number is huge, in the big picture of things its a very negligble portion.

JMVVHO.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Jan 2013 00:21

Vivek, on the contrary, I dont think anybody here can trash your scenarios.

Wherever possible, you have accommodated feedback & made as many real world assumptions as possible. Lets just say its a far cry from the trash one has read in the past from the likes of Clancy et al. Unfortunately, as your skills have risen, so have our expectations.

BTW, if you include more "Indianisms" as another poster suggested in the other post, that will really work to get the Army flavour in. The current generation is all about Hinglish..

Ok coming to previous points made. My ire - if it can be termed that - was more towards the discussion points that the situation in India today is somewhat ok. It isn't - India today, is a corrupted republic, run by kleptocrats who have continuously sacrificed national security at the grounds of personal political glory. Which is worrisome, if we want to avoid another 1962. Imagine a state of affairs, where VKS brings the issues of shortages forth, and national TV had gasbags barking about how dare he bring this to public notice etc. Apparently, we the public are idiots, who shouldnt be told anything about national security, anyone who does so, is doing it for political benefit. In the meanwhile, lets not celebrate the Kargil victory, because it was a BJP war and so forth. With such a state of affairs, its hard not to get cynical. But this has nothing to do with your writing or your scenario skills whatsoever, let that be clear.

There is the other sidetrack - this entire stuff about clean war, sparing citizens in cities etc. Despite thousands of soldiers dying in Bhutan, a friendly country devastated, we still have a poster above stating that calls for n-counter strikes equate "empty rhetoric, chest beating and calls for vengeance", without looking into the other point of view, that once Indian forces get attacked by nukes, and India does NOT retaliate, its a huge sign for further aggression.

Unfortunately, this is not something that can be dismissed by attacks on the poster above, as it is remarkably similar to Indian strat thinking through much of its independence era period, where Indians apparently are automatically conditioned to think in terms of not being too aggressive (with external forces) as the consequences are always disastrous or will be etc etc. Plus, they have to be chivalrous and some sort of ultra moral force for good. I think he simply does not get how close fought such a war will be, and given India's limited firepower versus China, going nuclear (For us) may be essential, even if not for them. I explain further below in the section about conventional Agnis..

This defensive/limited attack stuff is a mindset, if nothing else. What point is there in losing some clean war for brownie points? This sort of limited thinking in a way, apparently dominates even Indian literature, amazingly enough with the mere mention of nuclear warfare making verbose strategists get tongue tied. In recent years, Pakistani saber rattling has finally woken up India enough to start a limited BMD network, such is the state of affairs. And hopefully, we are finally paying enough attention towards building up our strategic forces.

Coming to the other aspects. I think (and it is only my perception), that conventional BM strikes will not be as devastating as the scenario depicts, and Singha's post expresses my pessimism about their utility.

Launchers are mobile, you have to have the Heron extract coordinates of each target, then send that via satcom to a central node, which then communicates that to Indian Agni launchers, which have to be loaded with those coordinates and strike those launchers. The difficulties in making this sensor to shooter chain work, seem unfeasible at present. So unless all the launchers are within the FOV of a single Heron, and which has the tech to get where each one is, we really can't do much about it..

Plus, per whatever I have read /been informed about, UAVs - even the real high alt ones - have a very limited field of view when compared against resolution, and hence the US resorts to both JSTARs sort of aircraft & is researching newer tech (e.g. Gorgon Stare and the like) to get a larger picture of the battlefield.

IMO, another weakness on the Indian side & strength on the PLAAF/PLA side is their density of AAA. They have purchased huge numbers of S-3XX units. So far, their usage on the battlefield has been limited. But they do have KS series SAMs as well of the range of 50-90 km (if my memory serves). IMO, we will be very hard pressed to maintain air superiority over the battlefield thanks to these units. Though you may justifiably point out that a paranoid Govt may decide to keep most their S-3XX units to protect Beijing or important static defences. As to why this is important - well, if these defences come into play, we can kiss goodbye to whatever UAV coverage we have. IMO, SEAD will be a constant issue throughout a campaign against the Chinese, as soon as we make holes, they will plug them. So the use of UAVs to get real time intel on the Chinese would be very lucky indeed, and the use of BMs to actually get such a success against their forces and launchers, again - well, that seems too much luck for India in one day. So IMO, those Agnis would have had to be nuclear armed to get a decent success rate against those launchers. And even then, a fair few would have escaped if the Chinese were canny about wide dispersal. Of course, this makes your life (as a scenario author) mind numbingly hard, because it means India went nuclear first or at the same time as the Chinese, and by succeeding, we may actually come across as the bigger aggressor. As a lazy reader, I can merely sit back & watch you somehow retrieve the situation, which you very well might.

For instance via the strike on Chinese leadership. Which is why I referred to it as a deus ex machina, something that keeps us (the readers happy) while it was an intriguing way to take the story in a new direction. In hindsight, its an amazing twist.

Short, what your scenario has done is brilliant. I dont know about the other folks here, but when I read what you have written, it basically brought home exactly where India's strengths or weaknesses are, as of today, when considering how to beat back an aggressive China.

Perhaps, thats best not discussed on this thread as it may detract its focus further. But it does explain a lot of the Indian Armed Forces decisions, from the Rafale to 155mm Arty etc.

Misraji · Post by **Misraji** » 17 Jan 2013 02:30

Karan M Saar,

Will be quoting only a part of your post. Please not to mind.
Its a pleasure having a discussion with you as opposed to some of the more obnoxious posters here.

There is the other sidetrack - this entire stuff about clean war, sparing citizens in cities etc. Despite thousands of soldiers dying in Bhutan, a friendly country devastated, we still have a poster above stating that calls for n-counter strikes equate "empty rhetoric, chest beating and calls for vengeance", without looking into the other point of view, that once Indian forces get attacked by nukes, and India does NOT retaliate, its a huge sign for further aggression.

The bold part is the part I disagree with. Simply because I have not seen sufficient discussion on that.
I am not for no use of nukes. If we must use them, then we must.

I tried to give one example of where we could signal our seriousness to use nuclear weapons without actually doing so.
An underwater nuclear explosion close to a major naval base. Devastate the base. Destroy the city's infrastructure without the huge nuclear radiation fallout.

I AM SURE that if we put our minds to it, we could come up with multiple such strategies
The idea is to signal our seriousness without tripping further redlines.

In a country with Billion plus population, 4 million represents less than 0.004%. So while the absolute number is huge, in the big picture of things its a very negligble portion.

This Bakistani style of thinking is what I am really worried about (No personal offense mean, Bala Saar.).
The part where we decide to go out all guns blazing to our deaths. We don't care that we survive as a nation provided we make sure that there is no china either.
Just so that we are all clear, since we are all Kafirs here, there are no 72 waiting for us ...

So the entire gist of my posts is to simply put our heads together to see if we can come up with other strategies of dealing with nuclear crisis.
In that sense, using nukes ourselves is the last option.
We know we can do it.
Now: Is there we can achieve our goal without doing so (with the objective of preventing a downward spiral)?

--Ashish.

Ghatotkacha · Post by **Ghatotkacha** » 17 Jan 2013 03:21

RamaY wrote:2013 Jan 16: 8:30PM

Prime Minister Misra is having dinner with his favorite Parathas and Aloo sabji watching his favorite dance show on Paki TV. He loved watching this show because it reminded him how same same Indians and Pakistanis are. "Damn, these pakis are same same as Indians. They have two legs and two hands. Apparantly majority of Pakis eat Parathas and Aloo sabhi. How close these two civilizations are if not for those hindu fanatic kings who stopped the peaceful islamic excursions many thousands of years ago. How cool it would have been to have a 3rd wife, that too after sending my 2nd son to Jeehad to Jerusalem. Sigh! If only wishes were Camels!.

PM Misra is disturbed by a call from the BSF military check post. He gave clear instructions to BSF to inform him about every peaceful pilgrimage of Pakistani non-state actors into India and ordered no action is take without his explicit permission. But that doesn't mean they should call him when he is watching PakTV and pass the buck, a bunch of useless people!

The BSF jawan on the other side was panting as if he was perplexed by the peace and love shown by his Paki counterparts. "Dear PMji, we have another cross border attack just 10 minutes ago. The Pakis crossed border and we went to meet them with mithais as you advised. While they took the mithais, one Paki shot our Jawan and severed his head and took it away with him as they went back. This is the 18th such incident in this month. What are your orders sir?"

PM Misra couldn't control his displeasure. "What stupid idiots you are. I am firing your Corps Commander with immediate effect. You guys are not listening to your civilian masters and disturbing the fragile peace between our great civilizations. That guy must have said something to the Pakis that must have offended him so much. Perhaps he didn't speak Urdoo, or he didn't wear black salwar kamiz like Pakis. You idiot saffron fanatics".

PM Misra always hated the convoluted and casteist rituals that Indian Army practiced even in this modern age of 2012. They are still not reformed and still have regiments based on their region and caste. He always wondered if he can change the constitution of india for the 786th time so Indian soldiers on its western borders wear the islamic attire while the soldiers on the eastern borders wear the same attire and insigna as PLA. After all we all are humans and should not make visible difference between the soldiers and armies of south Asia. But he was not sure if it is secular because after all secularism came from west so we must follow anything western, perhaps it is better to wait till UK military changes its dress code to salwar kamij.

Thanks RamaY for making my day.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Jan 2013 03:31

Hi Ashish, thanks for your kind words (not sure I deserve them though :p)

The issue is that whatever I read in our so called strat literature is so overwhelmingly peacenik, that even somebody somewhat peacenik as KSubramanyam (compare him to some western deterrence folks), comes out as a hawk and is attacked as such. IMO, it just shows how poorly thought our entire security structure is, because once nukes fly, the chances of there being used will keep rising..and the only way to prevent nukes from being used in the first place, is to have enough of them, that the other side realizes:

a) You can use them liberally
b) If you do use them as you wish, there is no comeback for them

Now, if you notice, we really don't have an answer to the PLA/PLAAF if they have far more nukes than we do, and are prepared to use them tactically, if we have limited stocks, thanks our doctrine of minimum deterrent whatever.

Now, the second issue, by their very nature, nukes are messy. There is no way - I am sorry to say this - that you can use them near any city or anywhere, without causing devastation to civilian life or radiation poisoning. All the fancy stuff about neutron bombs etc - well, thats all theoretical, because till they are used extensively, who knows?

So when the Chinese use nukes against India, you really have no option but to be equally messy when you hit back. Which is where another topic comes up.

What right do any of us, have to place our desire, to be ethical or moral and not target Chinese civilians, over what happens to our civilians when China attacks us or Bhutan or our troops with nukes?
We cannot countenance such behaviour. Its nothing but the larger version of sitting idly by when Pakistani soldiers attack our troops and behead them & we do nothing. When we attack Pakistan back, are we going to get the same soldiers who did this? Are our artillery shells going to be smart and avoid any collateral damage to Pakistani civilian infrastructure? No - yet we have to do what we must.

Fundamentally, what this other belief system is saying is "lets be civilized, even if they aren't". The problem with that belief system, is that ultimately its toxic and ends with side A being the victim throughout and side B, becoming more and more brutal. Hasn't that been the history of India so far?

Lets consider the other aspects of practicality :

So China strikes:

Case 1:
If India does not strike Chinese targets back with nuclear weapons, and seeks to keep the conflict conventional -

1. either China reciprocates, in which case India is still the loser, because the world will do NOTHING to penalize China, lets be clear about that. They did nothing when China proliferated, and its economically too powerful. So India comes out as the loser again, this is 1962 redux, and China is pretty much the uncrowned king of Asia. Look at them, they can do anything etc etc.
2. China hits us again with nukes. In which case, we are again back to square 1.

Case2:
1. India hits back at select military targets with nukes and signals China to stop on the escalation ladder. In which case:

1. China reciprocates, war stops or remains conventional
2. China hits us again. In which case we are back to square 1.

So if you see, if you actually want the war to remain conventional, hitting them back with nukes may not necessarily be a lose-lose. But you will have to accept the fact that India is not a moral, poster child for world peace, that we are as brutal as can be. But we would have done right by our dead soldiers and Bhutanese civilians and Indian civilians, instead of being concerned about Chinese civilians. That's the job of the PRC Govt.

But if you do hit them back with nukes, better be prepared to back up your words with strong muscle. If you have 40 Agnis, use ten on strikes and bluster against the Chinese when they have 100 DF-XX, then they may just hit you back.

What I am attempting to say is that the decision to go nuclear should not be based as much on the ethics of striking Chinese with nuclear weapons, as much on the fact whether we can actually stave off a wider defeat and face them down convincingly, having prepared for such a scenario. (With BMD network + large inventory of Agnis and nukes).

I am not even getting into the stuff about what happens if we are nuked. My assumption is when those launchers came out, we got nuked, along with the Bhutanese. Not just the Army, but a bunch of cities in the North/North East..and 10s of millions of Indians either died, and 100s of millions were displaced...in which case, attacking us with nukes effectively crippled our conventional war making capability by stopping the lines of logistics to the interior.

So, we may well have to go to the nukes ourselves to just stave off defeat! Which brings us back to the fact as to whether Indian decision makers even understand this or have been busy looking at only the ethics etc of all this..

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Jan 2013 03:45

vivek_ahuja wrote:Generally speaking, I think the forum here is giving far too much credence to the mobile nature of the launchers on both sides, IMO.

If you look at any past 2nd Artillery Exercises, their launchers are always grouped in small numbers (generally five, plus or minus) for each deployment location. This makes them easier to secure against ground attacks and easier to protect with SAMs. Unless a nuclear free-for-all has already happened, these launchers will not go roaming around on their own. This means that 60 or so launchers at the time the scenario talks about, are in effect between 12-15 launch locations, not 60 independent locations. Even so, each such group of launchers uses one of several launch locations to keep things unpredictable (and the Indian command has no way of knowing which one of these locations is being used except by observing their pattern over the last two weeks), hence the seventy or so Agni launches against 12-15 targets. Many of these missiles would have simply struck empty locations.

Also, the same applies to our side as well. In fact, the DF-21C launcher is actually more rugged than the equivalent Agni truck launchers with more off-road capabilities by the looks of it.

Thanks for this - I now understand the Agni vs target tradeoff, but its still dependent on the number of launch locations being only 12-15 and India knowing all these locations before hand, that part is where I wonder these will be so few and if not whether we can actually pull it off..

Misraji · Post by **Misraji** » 17 Jan 2013 04:38

Karan M wrote:..

What right do any of us, have to place our desire, to be ethical or moral and not target Chinese civilians, over what happens to our civilians when China attacks us or Bhutan or our troops with nukes?
We cannot countenance such behaviour. Its nothing but the larger version of sitting idly by when Pakistani soldiers attack our troops and behead them & we do nothing. When we attack Pakistan back, are we going to get the same soldiers who did this? Are our artillery shells going to be smart and avoid any collateral damage to Pakistani civilian infrastructure? No - yet we have to do what we must.

Fundamentally, what this other belief system is saying is "lets be civilized, even if they aren't". The problem with that belief system, is that ultimately its toxic and ends with side A being the victim throughout and side B, becoming more and more brutal. Hasn't that been the history of India so far?

Just as a clarification, my only moral obligation is to win.
I believe most of us are losing that perspective just so that we can use nukes back.

Does any one here (other Vivek saar) have any idea how a nuclear war is going to play out and how we are going to win?
If all people are worried about is "We MUST USE a nuke now .... Baad ka baadmein dekha jayega .. ",
then I am just glad that we bunch are not running this war.

I don't see any tactical/strategic advantage in attacking Chinese civilians.
Hence I just don't support the idea.

Karan M wrote:..
So China strikes:

Case 1:
If India does not strike Chinese targets back with nuclear weapons, and seeks to keep the conflict conventional -

1. either China reciprocates, in which case India is still the loser, because the world will do NOTHING to penalize China, lets be clear about that. They did nothing when China proliferated, and its economically too powerful. So India comes out as the loser again, this is 1962 redux, and China is pretty much the uncrowned king of Asia. Look at them, they can do anything etc etc.
2. China hits us again with nukes. In which case, we are again back to square 1.

..

I disagree with the losing part.
If there is no further use of nuclear weapons and we get back Aksai-Chin + Tibet, we have won!!
Our objectives have been met. Killing bunch of chinese civilians does not need to be a part of that victory.

For eg: Here is something else.

Strike with some other WMD. Biological or chemical (say) and wipe out an Chinese corps (or whatever).
(Displays resolve to use WMDs. Gets us a military advantage. No nuke usage so that one can use that as bargaining chip in diplomatic+negotiation efforts)

Then convey to Chinese government + everybody else too that you will use nuclear weapons on all chinese major cities next time
if any more more nuclear weapons are used, military targets or otherwise.

My only point is, why is the discussion here being limited to using nukes back without any thought to consequences.
Hit some other nerve point (like we did with crippling the shipping lanes).
Why must we fight the way they do? We need to fight in a way thats effective.

A nuclear slugfest might be a winning proposition with respect to Bakistan.
With respect to China, it is NOT!!

If we are attacked a second time, I will definite be wondering what kind of a deterrent we had in the first place!!!!
Then its an all out nuclear war with no holding back.

--Ashish

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 17 Jan 2013 07:12

Fundamentally, what this other belief system is saying is "lets be civilized, even if they aren't". The problem with that belief system, is that ultimately its toxic and ends with side A being the victim throughout and side B, becoming more and more brutal. Hasn't that been the history of India so far?

KaranM ji,

This is not correct. Our belief system (if we were to call it, to begin with) never says lets be civilized even to uncivilized savages. If this were the case, we wouldnt have had 10 Avataras, 18 Puranas, two epics and most of all the "sambhavaami yuge' yuge'" assurance/warning.

Our belief system tells us to be civilized. That civility is not limited towards fellow humans but entire flora fona of this universe. Everybody's life is equal (Sibi, Jimutavahana) irrespective of they are humans or not. It also allows us to be "personally" magnanimous If we prefer, but never allows us to spare the savages that hurt anyone whether it is a fellow civilized or uncivilized. The kings can be as magnanimous as they want with their personal lives (Jimutavahana, Sibi, Rantideva etc) but when it came to protecting the rashtra and doing their duty to the nation, they are demanded to be as harsh as possible.

Similarly the savagery of the dharmic response is directly proportional to the savagery of the opponent. That is why we have the more savage the Asuras' boons, the savage the avatar and punishment.

PM Misraji can donate all his money, time, family and life to the great civilizations of Pakistan, China etc., but as PM of India his response to any attack on Bharat should be dealt with utmost severity of Bharat's military capacity and even above it if necessary.

This is where the individual ideologies, preferences, worldviews, experiences and prejudices should be set aside when taking responsible roles. Unfortunately the budhas of our nation (the so-called old and matured people) screwing our great nation with their prejudices, sadism and paraphilias.

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 17 Jan 2013 09:10

NEW-DELHI
INDIA
DAY 12 + 1330 HRS

“Is it done?” the PM asked with his hand rubbing his forehead.
“It’s done, sir.” Iyer’s voice came over the phone a several seconds later.
“And?” Chakri asked, probing for more details.

“And both airbases are destroyed as per Malhotra’s latest info to us from Bangalore. Confirmed smoking craters and dust drifting dust clouds where the bases were supposed to be.”
“And the casualties?” the PM asked, bracing himself.

“Korla,” Iyer replied with deliberate carefulness, “has been pretty abandoned except for military personnel for the last few weeks. So it is going to be in the ballpark of the low thousands from both detonations combined, and most of them will be PLAAF personnel. The 26TH Air Division forward operations center has been destroyed as well as one of the two KJ-2000 AWACS. The last aircraft of the type has been pulled further north to Wulumuqi. We believe the 55TH Fighter Regiment Su-27s are also destroyed except for four who were in the air at the time and have diverted as well, we assume.”

The PM was not interested in these minute military details, however.
“Yes, yes! I get it!” he replied with obvious irritation in his voice. Chakri and Iyer both backed off and controlled their tempers. Ravoof did the same, although he didn’t like the way the PM spoke with Iyer now that he had been forced to do something against his wishes. “But has the point been made or not? When can we expect the Chinese to respond? And how?”

“We sent the message across to their foreign office via Bogdanov in Moscow as planned,” Ravoof said. “Hopefully whoever is in command over there in Beijing would have got it by now. Hopefully they will understand the rules of this deadly ‘game’.”
“Or we will get an ICBM thrown at us now that we have retaliated with nuclear weapons!” the PM retorted and then turned to the NSA, sitting across the room: “When are we departing to Palam?”

“Within a few minutes sir,” the latter replied “The aircraft is ready and we are awaiting the helicopter.”
“Good,” the PM replied as he got up from his seat. He did not fancy having done to him what they had done to the Chinese CMC…
“Sir, what are my orders?” Iyer asked from the other end of the line.

“Be prepared for anything the Chinese throw at us,” the PM replied, “but for god’s sake do not lob any more nukes at them or else you will take all of us down as well. We have enough to soothe the public anger in the coming days, but right now we need to diffuse the situation quickly.”
“Yes sir.” The line clicked off.

“You might want to know,” Chakri replied as he too got up from his seat and joined the PM as they left the room, “that the second Division up in the Chumbi valley surrendered an hour ago. General Suman has accepted their terms for surrender. The valley is ours now.”

“Chakri,” the PM said as he looked up to the roof at the sound of incoming helicopters, “do you honestly think any of that matter now in the slightest to me? Or to this country, for that matter? Bhutan has been nuked and thousands of our soldiers are dead. We have retaliated and killed thousands of theirs and destroyed two relevant airbases. The nuclear fallout from the Bhutanese detonations is already beginning to drift southwest and Joint-Force-Bhutan headquarters in that area is being evacuated as well as dozens of villages in both Bhutan as well as Assam will need to be evacuated. And in retaliating, you all made me do something I wish I would never have to do. This conventional victory is now sullied by all of this nuclear mess. Nobody in this country is going to remember what we had almost achieved but what they will remember is the nuclear fallout and the nuclear explosions. Law and order is already breaking down in most of our cities and our economy is taking a heavy jolt. All we can hope for now is for whoever is in command in Beijing to have a little bit of sanity left;

For our sake as well as theirs.”

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 17 Jan 2013 09:44

JUNWEI-KONGJUN
BEIJING
DAY 12 + 1345 HRS

“Damn those ba$tards!” Wencang threw the phone speaker back to the wall mounted phone, causing everybody in the operations center to jerk their heads behind at the large bang behind them. Wencang had a menacing look on his face as he watched all of the officers in the room staring at him in silence.
“That bad?” Chen asked.

“They just nuked Korla! And Uxxaktal!” Wencang replied, his voice still laced with menace.
“26TH Air Division,” Chen replied as calmly as he could as he evaluated possible losses there.

“And the 19TH,” Feng replied as he walked into the room with some papers in his hand and his reading glasses leaning over his nose.
Wencang balled his hands into fists and then turned back to the wall phone and leaned down to grab the hanging speaker. He stood up after taking it and spoke to Dianrong at the other end: “Get me 813TH Brigade commander on the line right now!”

Chen and Feng turned away from the papers in Feng’s hand as they heard Wencang talking.
“What are you doing?” Chen asked. Wencang ignored the question, his knuckles white from the rage.
“General, what is your launch readiness?” he asked on the speaker.

“Wencang!” Chen shouted but dared not approach Wencang closer given the latter’s rage.
“Good,” Wencang continued on the phone. “Prepare strike package ‘Typhoon’ on my orders. Keep the activity hidden as much as you can. I want launch readiness within the hour. Report back to me when you are ready.”

As he slammed the phone back into its place, Wencang turned around to see Chen and Feng standing there in stunned silence.
“What on earth did you do?” Chen said more as a statement than a question. He knew exactly what Strike Package Typhoon was…

“I gave the Indians what they were begging for,” Wencang replied as he fished into his pockets for a smoke using the cheap cigarettes he always had handy on him. A habit he had picked up from his years out near Korla all those years ago. He lit it up and turned to Feng:
“Get in touch with the Foreign-Minister at his office and inform him that we are evacuating this center and moving to the National Command Center. I want him to move his office there directly but to call me to get a draft of a message I want sent to the Indians via Bogdanov before he starts packing up to move. And this time let’s be more careful with the evacuation for all our sakes! No more mistakes like this morning! We can’t afford it! Go!”

“Sir!” Feng saluted and then ran out of the room. Wencang turned to Chen:
“Liu had a good idea in taking out the Indian satellite before our launch. But they had two and they used that other one effectively to take out most of the CMC. Let’s see if we can’t blind them permanently this time before Typhoon wipes their miserable little existence back to the stone ages!”

“You want to do this?” Chen asked calmly as Wencang took a long puff of the cigarette and released the smoke into the room.
“I did not bring them here,” Wencang replied, “but they forced my hand. Theirs is not the only country that has to worry about saving face and maintaining posture! Our people will hang us from this ceiling if we sued for peace now. That opportunity is now long gone.”

“But they struck us with only two warheads,” Chen continued to argue. “Surely that’s a message right there? Why just two warheads? They have to know what will follow, right? And we launched the first strike here! They had to respond and they chose two far away airbases! Why?”

“You give them too much credit for intelligence,” Wencang replied. “I don’t!”
“Their actions thus far have indeed been intelligent, Wencang,” Chen continued. “Think about it! You and I know more about their intelligent military operations against us than anybody else in Beijing.”

Wencang thought about that as his cigarette smoke filled the room…

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 17 Jan 2013 10:16

NEW CHINA NEWS AGENCY
RADIO BROADCAST
DAY 12 + 1420 HRS

BEGIN INTERCEPT//BRAVO-TWO-NINER//TIBETAN THEATER OF OPERATIONS//ORIGIN LHASA//OPEN CHANNEL INTERCEPT//

“…Rumors speculating of changes in the upper echelons of the Central Military Commission and the Politburo were strongly denied by the committee representative Lieutenant-General Chen. He explained that given the serious nature of the war, the committee had moved to its wartime locations as per protocol and will remain there until the blatant Indian nuclear aggression against the Chinese people and the peace loving people of the Kingdom of Bhutan is not silenced. General Chen notified the media that General Liu and President Peng was not available for answering questions at the time and he could explain their whereabouts on account of the sensitive military nature of their location.

“General Chen also denounced Indian use of ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads and explained that the explosions in Bhutan were Indian nuclear warheads detonated by retreating Indian forces as our courageous soldiers advanced to rid the decades old Indian hegemony over the Bhutanese people. General Chen confirmed that thousands of Bhutanese civilians and hundreds of PLA soldiers from the [READ//HIGHLAND DIVISION//DIA EDIT] elite high altitude mountain troops were killed in these explosions. In spite of such losses, the People’s Army stands ready to offer help to the Bhutanese people in this time of distress.

“Earlier this morning, the Indians also attempted to disarm our missile forces by preemptively attacking locations in northern Tibet. This blatant aggression will not go unanswered! The people of China have a right to live in peace without fear of nuclear aggression and the Indian usage of nuclear weapons will not go unpunished. With Russia and the United States of America once again vetoing China’s demands in the UN Security Council yesterday for immediate sanctions against India; China finds that it must control this threat on its southern borders on its own. China has demanded an unconditional Indian termination of hostilities or India will find itself soaked in an ocean of blood of its own citizens!”

//END INTERCEPT

PRESS RELEASE
MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
DAY 12 + 1500 HRS

“In light of the serious escalation of the war between India and China this morning, the subsequent usage of nuclear weapons by both sides, and the failure of the UN Security Council to resolve this grievous situation peacefully, Russia must take unilateral action to defend its own borders against further escalation of the war. The Russian far eastern military district has been put on high alert and the readiness status of the missile forces has been increased to account for any eventuality…”

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 17 Jan 2013 10:21

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 17 Jan 2013 10:27

Misraji
Don't you know that chemical and biological weapons have been banned ? So you're ready to use biological weapons which may cause as much or even more suffering, but not nukes. This is as convoluted as it can be. What made you think of causing an underwater explosion and destroying the coastal base with tsunami ? Do you think that the waves can be kept focused on one particular area ? Will it not cause any nuclear fallout and not be considered as a nuclear attack ?

RamaY
Plus One.
Before talking of being ethical and fair towards enemy, remember what happened with Prthiviraj Chauhan and Ghauri. Personal ethics have no place in matters of state.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jan 2013 10:29

>>the PM retorted and then turned to the NSA, sitting across the room: “When are we departing to Palam?”

disha · Post by **disha** » 17 Jan 2013 10:39

^^ Misra,

Simple question. If nuclear powers can be taken out by non-nuclear powers - why has it not happened so? The fact is that in the only war that went nuclear, the other side did not have nuclear weapons and way to deliver them.

The rest is all rona-dhona. In any scenario, if you are not planning to use your nuclear weapons - you do not need it and as well get rid of it. Some nations have done so, since they did not have any scenario where they will be attacked by nukes - like for example S-Africa.

India is the only country - repeat only country in the world where it shares immediate borders with nuclear states - not one - but two. And none of them have a democratically elected government and one of them is a rabid dog.

So please stop this rona-dhona on nukes are bad (and chemical/biological weapons are not? - oh the irony)

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 17 Jan 2013 10:42

They still want to Bogdanov ? Russians, Americans , Japani will all notice the pending doom and make preparation for themselves . It will make sense for indians to unlesh few hundreds Nukes once they loose the statelite. It wont be a local conflict any more . About time Wencang to be educated about the salted nukes.

http://nucleartransparency.fas.org/foru ... php?id=492

Bala Vignesh · Post by **Bala Vignesh** » 17 Jan 2013 10:43

So that's why PM didn't want to hit chinese with nukes.. He is afraid for his own skin..

Misraji · Post by **Misraji** » 17 Jan 2013 10:46

@Disha:
I am not sure which part of my post or Ahuja Sir's post you misread.

The military targets were chosen because of lack of civilian population nearby.
Only two military targets were chosen to signal restraint on our part.
Russians were asked to convey that further nuclear attacks would be retaliated with.
Chinese are not willing to back down and are preparing retaliatory strikes against civilian targets,
which they can because of larger number of nukes and anti-satellite weaponry.

The scenario is going exactly as predicted.

The only place where you and I differ is you want to be bombed back to stone-age and I don't.
Not to mention future generations being born with radiation-related illnesses and deformities living among ruins of once magnificent cities.

I am seeing folks relishing the thought of unleashing hundreds of nukes on China and of Wencang doing the same and all I am thinking is ...
Really? Shouldn't we be trying to see a way out of this?

--Ashish

PS ... AND ... there will no internet, no reading Ahuja Sir's scenarios !!! ... Afraid now? ...

vivek_ahuja · Post by **vivek_ahuja** » 17 Jan 2013 11:02

Misraji wrote:I am seeing folks relishing the thought of unleashing hundreds of nukes on China and of Wencang doing the same and all I am thinking is ...
Really? Shouldn't we be trying to see a way out of this?

You might want to consider an additional 'non-linear' variable in your analysis the way I do for all the air-warfare modeling equations: the human element. You are approaching the problem far too logically to be effective in a situation charged with emotion and fear. People (in the scenario, on both sides) react to different emotions under stressful situations. Easily angered ones are the most chaotic (Liu, Zhigao and even Wencang to some degree), then there are the cold calculating operators (Chakri, Iyer, Peng, Chen and Feng) and then there are the ineffective logical operators (Ravoof, Dianrong, Bogdanov etc). But there is also a fourth class which will react with fear (Indian PM, Admiral Huaqing) and a fifth class that will be incompetant and ineffective completely (Jinping etc) who have gotten to these positions by ways other than merit.

Depending on who is in charge at any given point will dominate and drive the equation forward, sometimes to depressing/unexpected results and sometimes better, logical results.

So Wencang acting out of anger or the PM acting out of fear should not be taken by you as going against the basic argument of illogical actions on each person's part. Its going to happen. Humanity has been dealing with such mistakes since time immemorial.

Anyway, just another factor to consider.

-Vivek

Misraji · Post by **Misraji** » 17 Jan 2013 11:15

^^^
I completely agree. Human element is the driving factor behind all the actions.
I do need to improve my reading of the human factor.

Its interesting that the scenario-readers had the privilege of knowing the people in power and thus calculating their responses.
How the characters themselves respond, could be completely different given how much information they have.

Mathematical Game Theory has a section on games with incomplete information.
This war scenario completely reminds me of that ....

--Ashish

PS: I had completely forgotten about the power of media in spreading misinformation. Well played, Sirjee ...