We dont care about chinese opinion here.wong wrote: I don't know man, have you checked the only India news in America, Britain and Switzerland lately?? You want loss of face, that's it. Of course not a word of it on the Indian Tourism thread. Keep sticking your head in the sand for 'Incredible India' shiv.
Uh oh - I seem to have got one more Chinese guest worked up and hopping mad!wong wrote:I don't know man, have you checked the only India news in America, Britain and Switzerland lately?? You want loss of face, that's it. Of course not a word of it on the Indian Tourism thread. Keep sticking your head in the sand for 'Incredible India' shiv.shiv wrote:Only the Chinese are coming on here to talk about India Not the Swedes, Japanese Russians or Americans. Loss of face. Insecurity -and the anger of congniitve dissonance. Also maybe the anger of one spoilt child from Chna's one child policy - a child who is not used to being denied what he wants.
Just as intended. These guys really really get mad when they feel they are being humiliated in public. Good solid pisko here. That in fact is the key. Even in war the Chinese will try spectacular things to gain respect - even if it is militarily useless. The thing to do is to plan spectacular defeats that could be very minor on their own. For example - at the start of any action just get news agencies to publish the news "Two J-20s shot down by one MiG 21" It does not matter if the news is not true - but it will get them hopping mad and tearing their hair out. Of course news in China will always be censored an our "guests" here clearly live in America and seem to know what is discussed in America. LOL! All I hear about Chinese in America is plagiarism and spying.Dude your figures is from two years ago and is outdated. Does not even include current supplies from Venezuela.... and recent acquistions, agreements and the coming tripple increase from Siberian oil pipeline. Yeah fantasy...Victor wrote:
And here is the route for at least 75% of China's oil for the foreseeable future:
The red dots show some of the many possible shore-based points that are within easy reach of this oil route. This is not even considering Indian ships, subs and jets.
The 2013 (or 2014, 15, 16...) percentage figures won't be much different from today. Also, "triple" today is not triple tomorrow because China's total imports will also have grown and the percentage will remain the same or maybe increase a little in 25 years. These things don't change in a couple of years. Bottomline: China is simply not going to get more than 20% of its oil from Russia in my lifetime. Get used to it.Don wrote: Dude your figures is from two years ago and is outdated...
..Does not even include current supplies from Venezuela....
..and recent acquistions, agreements and the coming tripple increase from Siberian oil pipeline. Yeah fantasy...
did you mean HIGH bypass instead of LOW????asprinzl wrote:Please re-read what I wrote. I am not talking about fighter engines. I am talking about the ginormous low bypass turbofan engines for gigantic transports like the C-17, Boeing and A380. Snecma is NOT in this market
There are only four entities world wide that make these. Two Yanks, One Brit and One Russian.
A fighter jet engine is easier to design and build compared the LBTE. If one is having such a difficulty with a fighter engine....just imagine the uphill task wrt LBTE.
I have a grip not only on reality but also on the upcoming future. But u cannot see either. The Vientam-India axis in already on and check out information available in public domain to get a hold of it. The real names in the other axis does not matter but what matters is that there are potential a number of power ful axis which are just waiting in the wings. May be u would like ASEAN-India-US axis to make it more pallatable in case u have been following the realities around south china sea oil explorations. The point is that u are CAGED and no matter of contract manufacturing and stealing is going to get you out of it. Deal with it like u are now coming with folder hands to India to keep the western border quite. Soon you will propose similar pacts with the other powerful neigbours and go around with begging bowl to keep peace.ashi wrote: Russia-Taepei axis, Soko-Tibet axis, Vietnam-India axis"... Dude, get a grip of reality. Not just in this thread, in the economy threads as well.
You don't know what you are talking about...never did.Victor wrote:
Actually I did show Venezuela but again, your selective vision doesn't matter. You do know that fully half of Venezuelan oil goes to the US even now and only 6% to China, right? That 6% may soon be diverted to the US because Chavez isn't around to bamboozle the Venezuelan poor any more, the make-believe economy is going to collapse any time now and there are a LOT of Venezuelans who want to plug into America, not China. I give it 2 years max.
The U.S. imported 764,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil and refined products such as gasoline in November, the last month for which figures are available, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures released this week.
Latest updated export numbers of Venezuelan crude oil to China.Venezuela has set a goal of more than doubling shipments to China, which has in turn provided billions of dollars in loans-for-oil deals. Ramirez has said Venezuela is shipping China more than 400,000 barrels of crude a day.
Venezuela exports more than 500,000 barrels of oil to the Asian giant daily, according to government figures, and plans to increase that to one million by 2015. The two countries had signed 300 bilateral agreements, including 80 major projects, according to a University of Miami study in 2010.
On top of that, he thinks India has the capability to monitor every cargo ships sails thru Indian Ocean in real time and knows which are for China.Don wrote:You don't know what you are talking about...never did.Victor wrote:
Actually I did show Venezuela but again, your selective vision doesn't matter. You do know that fully half of Venezuelan oil goes to the US even now and only 6% to China, right? That 6% may soon be diverted to the US because Chavez isn't around to bamboozle the Venezuelan poor any more, the make-believe economy is going to collapse any time now and there are a LOT of Venezuelans who want to plug into America, not China. I give it 2 years max.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuela ... 38661.html
The U.S. imported 764,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil and refined products such as gasoline in November, the last month for which figures are available, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures released this week.http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/venezu ... 56867.htmlVenezuela has set a goal of more than doubling shipments to China, which has in turn provided billions of dollars in loans-for-oil deals. Ramirez has said Venezuela is shipping China more than 400,000 barrels of crude a day.
Venezuela exports more than 500,000 barrels of oil to the Asian giant daily, according to government figures, and plans to increase that to one million by 2015. The two countries had signed 300 bilateral agreements, including 80 major projects, according to a University of Miami study in 2010.
Mister, Where can I find the "Vientnam-India" axis information? Any links? Any treaties signed? Each has faith on another one's capability and commitment?subhamoy.das wrote:I have a grip not only on reality but also on the upcoming future. But u cannot see either. The Vientam-India axis in already on and check out information available in public domain to get a hold of it. The real names in the other axis does not matter but what matters is that there are potential a number of power ful axis which are just waiting in the wings. May be u would like ASEAN-India-US axis to make it more pallatable in case u have been following the realities around south china sea oil explorations. The point is that u are CAGED and no matter of contract manufacturing and stealing is going to get you out of it. Deal with it like u are now coming with folder hands to India to keep the western border quite. Soon you will propose similar pacts with the other powerful neigbours and go around with begging bowl to keep peace.ashi wrote: Russia-Taepei axis, Soko-Tibet axis, Vietnam-India axis"... Dude, get a grip of reality. Not just in this thread, in the economy threads as well.
YOU HAVE NOT A SINGLE FRIEND IN YOUR NEIGBORHOOD and all your FOES in your neighborgood are capable of inflicting un-acceptable damage to you. SCARY NO? I can see that it is this fear which is driving this miliatry propaganda.... but under neath you are trembling like Hitler was sitting in his under ground bunker...
LOL. That is not how it works. All India has to do is to announce that any ship bound for India would have to positively identify itself and its cargo or be sunk. Other ships have to skirt Indian shores by 500 nautical miles. It is the "other ships" that will be targeted as they enter the straits of Malacca. Randomly stopping and boarding ships and sinking or impounding one or two confirmed ships going to China will raise shipping insurance rates sky high and make mommas of single child Chinese sailors on ships to tell them to come home to mummy and a nice bowl of cold noodles. No oil.ashi wrote: On top of that, he thinks India has the capability to monitor every cargo ships sails thru Indian Ocean in real time and knows which are for China.
Unless you consider friendship as the existing bonhomie between China and Pakistan, we have enough friends in our neighbourhood. Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan are all not our enemies. Granted, we have some issues with some of these, but we choose to sort out issues through dialogue and diplomacy. The fact that China chooses to deal willingly with a terrorist state like Pakistan says volumes about what, in your opinion, friendship is.ashi wrote:YOU HAVE NOT A SINGLE FRIEND IN YOUR NEIGBORHOOD
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-2 ... putin.htmlasprinzl wrote:At one time I owned a company that did specialized works for Gazprom and maintained friendship with some officials of Gazprom till today. Gazprom is just not another oil company. Gazprom is official Russia. From what I know, the oil diplomacy between Russia and China is not a bed of roses. Russians are very suspicious of China. China is trying to musscle in to Russian sphere of influence especially in Khazakstan. Thus far they have not been very successful. The CAR states are not very happy with the way the way China rules their northwest region even if publicly they wont mention their displeasure. There WILL NEVER be massive webs of oil pipelines from CAR nor Russia to China. Oil supplies to China from these regions are carefully calibrated with Russia lording over the callibration. That is the only leverage Russia has over China and they are not going to give that up anytime soon.
Xi’s First State Trip Yields ‘Breakthrough’ Oil Deals With Putin
By Stepan Kravchenko & Jake Rudnitsky - Mar 22, 2013 2:34 PM PT.
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China agreed to double oil supplies and supported construction of a natural gas pipeline from Russia under “breakthrough” agreements during President Xi Jinping’s first state trip abroad.
OAO Rosneft, the world’s biggest traded oil producer by output, will borrow $2 billion from China Development Bank Corp., backed by 25 years of oil supplies, under accords signed yesterday in the Kremlin. The Russian company also offered China National Petroleum Corp. access to Arctic resources, and OAO Gazprom said it plans to conclude a 30-year gas-supply contract to China by year-end.
Xi is visiting his counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow, building stronger alliances with Russia to counter U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Russia is seeking to strengthen ties with its neighbor, the world’s second-biggest economy, boosting crude shipments and opening a new market for gas as demand in Europe stagnates.
“We didn’t come here and waste our time,” Xi said through a Russian translator at the Kremlin ceremony. He told Putin he felt their “souls are open to each other” and said the accords represent a “breakthrough.”
Rosneft will boost oil supplies to China by 800,000 metric tons this year, Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said after the signing with CNPC counterpart Zhou Jiping. Annual exports may climb to as much as 31 million tons, or more than 620,000 barrels a day, through three routes, from 15 million tons currently, he said. Russia has a spur to China from its East Siberia-Pacific Ocean link, and can send crude via its Kozmino port or through Kazakhstan.
Resource Access
China will also gain access to energy resources in Russia, the world’s biggest producer of oil and gas. CNPC will work with Rosneft to explore three offshore blocks in the Barents and Pechora Seas and eight onshore areas, Sechin said. Rosneft agreed with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (386), or Sinopec, to “optimize” work at Sakhalin-3, saying the project may be expanded.
Sechin signed the agreement for a $2 billion credit facility with China Development Bank President Zheng Zhijie.
Gazprom, Russia’s natural-gas export monopoly, signed an memorandum with CNPC on building a pipeline along the so-called eastern route with shipments of 38 billion cubic meters a year, starting in 2018, CEO Alexei Miller told reporters in the Kremlin. Gas deliveries may rise to 60 billion cubic meters.
The deal may include advance payments from China for gas, Miller said. Gazprom and CNPC plan to set legally binding terms for supplies in June and sign deal by the end of this year, he said.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/OA24Ag01.htmlasprinzl wrote:Russians are very suspicious of China. China is trying to musscle in to Russian sphere of influence especially in Khazakstan. Thus far they have not been very successful.
Construction Work on One of China's Pipelines to Central Asia
The construction of China’s New Eurasian Land Bridge through Central Asia has been gathering speed in recent months and looks to make even greater progress in 2013. At the end of 2012, China and Kazakhstan opened their second major rail link at the Xinjiang-Kazakhstan border city of Korgas. The new link comprises a 300-km section in both countries that connects their rail networks from Jiangsu Province to the rest of Kazakhstan’s rail system, which itself is being expanded through enhanced China-Kazakhstan cooperation. On December 22, 2012, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway company of Kazakhstan, reported that Kazakhstan and China have started using the new railway crossing of Altynkol-Khorgos. It is expected cargo transportation will reach 10 million tons in 2015 and 15 million tons in 2020. Industry observers expect the Korgas Pass—which now connects China and Kazakhstan by a railway, a highway and an oil pipeline—to handle 20 million tons of cargo per year by 2020 and 35 million tons per year by 2030 (Xinhua, December 22, 2012; Trend, December 22, 2012)
In a 50-50 joint venture, the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNCP) and KazMunaiGaz built a lengthy oil pipeline from Kazakhstan’s Atyrau port along the Caspian coast to Alashankou in China's northwest Xinjiang region. When it began operating on a limited basis in December 2005, the delivery marked the first eastward flow of Central Asian oil and China’s first receipt of imported oil by pipeline. Now, one fifth of Kazakhstan’s oil flows to China (People’s Daily, December 20, 2012). In 2010, the Central Asia-China pipeline began transporting natural gas from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China. This 2,100-kilometer gas pipeline is expected to deliver around 40 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2015.
In another joint CNCP-KazMunaiGaz project, Astana has invested $130 million to augment a $1.8-billion loan from the China Development Bank, to construct a 1,500-km natural gas pipeline from Beyneu in western Kazakhstan to Bozoi Shymkent. From there, the 50-50 owned Beineu-Shymkent Gas Pipeline LLP will connect with the Central Asia-China gas pipeline as well as provide gas to southern Kazakhstan, a region that must currently import gas (IANS, December 13, 2012). It also plans to construct a Pipeline “C” that would provide a third Kazakhstani gas pipeline into China. When all three conduits are fully operational in 2015, they will deliver up to 60 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually—or about half of the PRC’s anticipated demand for imported gas then (UPI, September 16, 2011). At the end of 2012, the CNCP opened the last section of its $22 billion, 8,704-km pipeline, which can carry as much as 30 bcm from Huoerguos on the China-Kazakhstan border in northwest Xinjiang Uygur region to Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hong Kong (IANS, December 31, 2012).
They were historically part of the same country called BHARAT which got divided but that is a different story. But let us replace them and see who is in a CAGEprashanth wrote:Unless you consider friendship as the existing bonhomie between China and Pakistan, we have enough friends in our neighbourhood. Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan are all not our enemies. Granted, we have some issues with some of these, but we choose to sort out issues through dialogue and diplomacy. The fact that China chooses to deal willingly with a terrorist state like Pakistan says volumes about what, in your opinion, friendship is.ashi wrote:YOU HAVE NOT A SINGLE FRIEND IN YOUR NEIGBORHOOD
ashi wrote:Mister, Where can I find the "Vientnam-India" axis information? Any links? Any treaties signed? Each has faith on another one's capability and commitment?subhamoy.das wrote:
I have a grip not only on reality but also on the upcoming future. But u cannot see either. The Vientam-India axis in already on and check out information available in public domain to get a hold of it. The real names in the other axis does not matter but what matters is that there are potential a number of power ful axis which are just waiting in the wings. May be u would like ASEAN-India-US axis to make it more pallatable in case u have been following the realities around south china sea oil explorations. The point is that u are CAGED and no matter of contract manufacturing and stealing is going to get you out of it. Deal with it like u are now coming with folder hands to India to keep the western border quite. Soon you will propose similar pacts with the other powerful neigbours and go around with begging bowl to keep peace.
YOU HAVE NOT A SINGLE FRIEND IN YOUR NEIGBORHOOD and all your FOES in your neighborgood are capable of inflicting un-acceptable damage to you. SCARY NO? I can see that it is this fear which is driving this miliatry propaganda.... but under neath you are trembling like Hitler was sitting in his under ground bunker...
And "YOU HAVE NOT A SINGLE FRIEND IN YOUR NEIGBORHOOD" neither.
very funny. Chinese at it again. Google Mekong-Ganga Cooperation. Forget Indian neighborhood, If you know how to count tell me how many friends India has in Chinese neighborhood from this map.
asprinzl wrote:Multiple millions of memorandum of understanding can be signed and pipelines built anywhere possible but the control of the flow of oil will be carefully callibrated by Russia. Regardless of A-stan or B-stan or C-stan signing agreements with China, they will all defer to Russia when dealing with China or Japan or USA. And Russia will play hardball with China all the way. Oil is one powerful tool Russia has to hold the Chinese by their balls and they are squeezing it as they please. Chinese deep pockets don't impress them anymore like it did under Yeltsin years. Remember that Japanese are also pushing hard for pipeline to the seacoast to be shipped to Japan.
So, your news report of this deal or that deal means worth the pound "pangsai" and nothing else....
There are many free sites like these for internet warriors to waste time in. They show in real time where every ship in the world is, what type of ship it is -cruise, cargo, tanker (red) etc- its name, heading, speed and registry. Imagine what the paid services offer. Then imagine what the Indian military has with its own 24/7 surveillance.ashi wrote:On top of that, he thinks India has the capability to monitor every cargo ships sails thru Indian Ocean in real time and knows which are for China.
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2 ... a-War.htmlAcharya wrote:China has energy source problem
Last Update: Saturday, 16 March 2013 KSA 12:40 - GMT 09:40
China in Iraq: winning without a war
Saturday, 16 March 2013
Dr. Naser Al-Tamimi Not long ago, Robert Kaplan, the well-known American writer, “complained” in The Wall Street Journal, saying: “... We have liberated Iraq so that Chinese firms can extract its oil.” The sentiment that was expressed by Kaplan was in fact reflecting the evolution of the situation in Iraq, where the Chinese presence was rising strongly. Tellingly, Beijing’s position in Iraq evolved quickly, from among the most outspoken of critics of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, to emerging as one of the biggest economic beneficiaries of the war in Iraq.
China’s Catching-up Game
Ten years after the American invasion, Iraq turned into an important energy / trade partner for China. Indeed, the trade between Iraq and China doubled almost 34 times. The volume of bilateral trade between the two states soared to $17.5 billion by end-2012 from small amount of $ 517 million in 2002. In the same period, the trade between Iraq and the U.S. increased only 5.6 times. The bilateral trade between both countries rose to $ 21.6 billion by end-2012 from $ 3.8 billion in 2002. Last year, China was both the second-largest purchaser of Iraqi exports, $ 12.6bn, (after the U.S. $ 19.6bn) and the second-largest supplier of imports, $ 4.9bn, (after Turkey $ 10.8 bn), according to latest data from the U.N. Comtrade data. The United States still Iraq’s largest trade partners, however the current trends suggest that China will soon overtake America to become Baghdad’s top trade partner.
Ironically, three important points emerged after a decade of the American occupation of Baghdad. (a) The U.S. imports from Iraq of crude oil in 2012 were less in volume in comparison before the invasion. For example in the 2002, the United States imported from Iraq 485 thousand barrels of crude oil per day (bpd), while the figure from China was almost zero. However, in 2012, America imported 473 bpd of crude oil; in comparison the volume of China’s total imports from Iraq hit about 315 bpd. (b) The first oil license awarded by Iraq’s government after the U.S.-led invasion was to state-run China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) who won a US $ 3.5 billion development contract for Iraqi oil field Al-Ahdab in November 2008. And (c) Beijing and Baghdad recently consolidated their trade ties with the two countries signing of a cooperation deal on economic and technology and an exchange of notes on personnel training; during the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki visit to China in July 2011, which was also the first visit by Iraqi prime minister to China in the over 50 years of history of diplomatic relations.
Within this context, IHS Global Insight argue that Iraq is extremely important for Chinese companies’ growth strategy, especially given that Iran is likely to face much of a standstill for years if not decades. Iraq’s production increases have matched the relative production decreases in Iran. As a result of Iranian oil production declines, Iraq became the second largest OPEC producer (after Saudi Arabia) in late 2012. Indeed, in a stunning turnaround, Iraq recently stabilized and increased its oil production, whereby at the end of 2012, it reached nearly 3 million barrel a day (mb / d) for the first time since 1990, and it can undoubtedly produce more according the International Energy Agency (IEA). Iraqi government is planning to increase production to 3.7 million barrels per day mb/d in 2013. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes the figures provided by the Iraqi government are very realistic. According to the latest data provided by the IMF, Iraq’s oil production will reach 3.6 mb/d by the end-2013, while the exports will rise to 2.8 mb/d in the same year, from 2.3 mb/d in 2012.
The Big Bet
Iraq is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter (after Saudi Arabia and Russia) and has the resources and plans to increase rapidly its oil and natural gas production as it recovers from three decades punctuated by conflict and instability. Iraq is estimated to have the fifth largest proven oil reserves (143.1 billion barrels) and the 12th-largest proven gas reserves in the world, as well as vast potential for further discoveries, according BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012.
Beijing is betting big in Iraq. The view from Beijing is that a stable Iraq is good for the region and for China’s core economic interests. According to business Monitor International, (BMI), in November 2008, China and Iraq finalised a $ 3bn oil service contract for the development of the Ahdab oil field. The State-run Chinese National Petroleum Co. (CNPC) originally signed a Production Sharing Agreement (PSA) for the field in 1997. This is the first deal from the Saddam Hussein era to be honoured by the new Iraqi regime. While in November 2009, CNPC won a large stake in a $ 15 billion deal to develop the Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq, thought to be the second largest in the world. In December 2009, CNPC was awarded a 50% stake in the development of the Halfaya oilfield located southern Iraq. Halfaya is proven to hold 4.1 billion barrels of recoverable reserve and has production potential of 200 thousand to half million bpd. In February 2010, Beijing cancelled 80% of Iraq’s $8.5 billion debt to China, a move designed to further Chinese business interests in the country. In June 2012, CNPC finished the first phase of the Halfaya and increased production from 3,000 bpd to 100,000 bpd, 15 months ahead of schedule.
CNPC currently holds a 37.5% stake in the Halfaya field, a 75% stake in the al-Ahdab field and a 37% stake in the Rumaila field. Wang Dongjin, vice president of CNPC, estimates that Chinese state companies are currently helping in the production of some 1.6 million barrels a day in Iraq, more than half that country’s total output. Chinese companies are also producing 120,000 barrels a day from Halfayia and some 140,000 barrels a day from Ahdab. China’s initial success in Iraq also extends to the Kurdish Autonomous Region. In August 2009, the state-run, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) agreed to acquire Swiss energy company “Addax” in a $ 7.2bn deal. The deal has been approved by the Chinese government and it became effective on October 5, 2009. Subsequently, Sinopec gained access to two oil fields in northern Iraq; as Addax has a 30% stake in PSA for the Taq field ‘and’ a 26.67% working interest in the Sangaw North PSC oil field in Kurdistan. Additionally, there are also speculations (NASDAQ news) that China’s largest oil and gas producer - PetroChina - is interested in joining Texas-based ExxonMobil Corporation, for the development of West Qurna oilfield in southern Iraq. Both parties are yet to finalize on the size of stakes to be shared.
The Coming ‘Oil Superpower’
As for the future, in the IEA’s Central Scenario, that reflects its judgement about a reasonable trajectory for Iraq’s development, based on an assessment of current and announced policies and projects, Iraq’s oil production rises to 4.2 mb/d in 2015, more than doubles to 6.1 mb / d by 2020, jumps to 7 mb/d by 2025, and reaches 8.3 mb / d in 2035. The increase in Iraq’s oil production in the IEA’s Central Scenario of more than five mb/d over the period to 2035; makes Iraq by far the largest contributor to global supply growth. Over the current decade, Iraq accounts for around 45% of the anticipated growth in global output.
Iraq’s exports rise to 4.4 mb / d in 2020 and 5.2 mb / d in 2025, finishing the projection period at 6.3 mb / d. The IEA predicts that by 2020, Iraq will export 80% to Asia (3.5-4 m / bd) most of it will go to China. The IEA also predicts that China will become the main customer for Iraqi oil by the 2030s, with Baghdad overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest oil exporter by then. The IEA’s chief economist, Fatih Birol, recently said that: “Iraq will emerge as a major new oil producer by the 2030s. Its main customer will be China, and half of Iraqi oil production will go to China.”
Indeed, Iraq’s oil production potential is immense, but exploiting it depends on consolidating the progress made in peace and stability in the country and the need for infrastructure investments. In a high-case scenario, if all the various moving parts are aligned perfectly, the IEA forecasts that Iraq could crank up production to 9.1 mb/d by the end of this decade. It becomes the second-largest global exporter after Saudi Arabia and a key supplier to fast-growing markets in Asia. In a delayed case - which also is unlikely but could occur if the regional environment deteriorates and Iraq is engulfed in a larger regional conflict or oil prices crash - would see production rise marginally to 4 mb/d by 2020.
Difficult Road Ahead
To put Iraq’s potential in context, Baghdad in 2012 ranked sixth (after Saudi Arabia, Angola, Russia, Iran and Oman), in the list of key crude oil suppliers to China, where the ratio of imports to about 5.8% (about 315 thousand bpd) of China’s total imports. As by comparison, China imported over a million barrel per day (mb/d) from Saudi Arabia in 2012 (20% of China’s total crude oil imports), while Angola provided around 806 thousand bpd or 15% of total imports, nearly 9% or 489 thousand bpd came from Russia and around 442 thousand bpd or over 8% imported from Iran. But Iraq could jump to the third or the second largest supplier of oil to China over the next few years. However, the security situation and political developments in Iraq still a source of concern to Beijing.
Although the security situation has improved markedly over the past five years, Iraq is still far from stable. For China, the surge in imports of Iraqi crude oil carries risks because of the danger that deteriorating security, sectarian tensions, complex legal framework, endemic corruption, and lack of infrastructure could delay the increase in Iraq’s forecasted oil production forcing Beijing to look for alternative suppliers. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects the political situation in Iraq to remain unstable, while the Global Insight argues that “Iraq’s delicate security condition poses the greatest downside risks to economic growth in the short term, as it could severely undermine development plans, cause a political gridlock, and erode consumer demand.” More worryingly, the increasingly civil war in Syria could spill over into Iraq creating dangerous sectarian conflict.
However, the EIU does not expect a repeat of the sectarian conflict that engulfed Iraq in 2006-07. Indeed, despite the gloomy political outlook, the IMF projects that Iraq to register the highest economic growth rates in the world, where the GDP is expected to expand rapidly in 2013 by more than 14% and Iraq’s economy to grow by a robust 10-11% on average during 2013-2017, driven primarily by rising oil production. This provides enormous opportunities for Chinese companies to expand in Iraq’s markets.
Nexen has 5.6 billion barrel of crude oil in its Holding more than 60% of the entire proven crude oil reserve of India.Acharya wrote:China has energy source problem
CNOOC Finally Gets Nexen
By Zacks Equity Research | Zacks – Tue, Feb 26, 2013 2:48 PM EST.. .
China’s largest offshore oil producer, CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), announced today that it has finally wrapped up the $15.1 billion acquisition of Canada’s Nexen Inc. (NXY). The deal closed more than seven months after the biggest Chinese foreign takeover was announced.
This deal marks a significant milestone for CNOOC as it gets hold of Nexen’s biggest reserves in the Canadian oil sands. Nexen operates in western Canada, the Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Africa and the Middle East. Apart from oil sands, Nexen remains dynamic in natural gas exploration in shale rock formations. It owns approximately 300,000 acres of shale-gas blocks in the Horn River Basin in British Columbia.
In this connection, it is worth mentioning that China Petroleum & Chemical Corp/Sinopec (SNP) has inked a $1.02 billion deal with Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK). This gives the second-largest Chinese energy producer 50% share in 850,000 acres in the Mississippi Lime play in northern Oklahoma.
CNOOC currently retains a Zacks Rank #3 (short-term Hold rating).
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... azils-oil/Acharya wrote:China has energy source problem
Two export pacts a coup for Beijing
BUENOS AIRES — Off the coast of Rio de Janeiro — below a mile of water and two miles of shifting rock, sand and salt — is an ultradeep sea of oil that could turn Brazil into the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, behind Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
The country’s state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, expects to pump 4.9 million barrels a day from the country’s oil fields by 2020, with 40 percent of that coming from the seabed. One and a half million barrels will be bound for export markets.
The United States wants it, but China is getting it.
A chunk of Brazil’s oil real estate appeared on China’s portfolio in 2010, when Sinopec agreed to pay $7.1 billion for 40 percent of Repsol-YPF of Brazil, which has stakes in the now internationally famous Santos Basin, and the Sapinhoa field, which has an estimated recoverable volume of 2.1 billion barrels. Statoil of Norway also agreed that year to sell 40 percent of the offshore Peregrino field to Sinochem.
Gosh, the captain can just turn the GPS tracking off. And then what ?Victor wrote:There are many free sites like these for internet warriors to waste time in. They show in real time where every ship in the world is, what type of ship it is -cruise, cargo, tanker (red) etc- its name, heading, speed and registry. Imagine what the paid services offer. Then imagine what the Indian military has with its own 24/7 surveillance.ashi wrote:On top of that, he thinks India has the capability to monitor every cargo ships sails thru Indian Ocean in real time and knows which are for China.
Link
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China has energy transportation problemAcharya wrote:China has energy source problem
How stupid. In wartime no one wants to be sunk and every shipowner carrying legitimate cargo will keep his ship visible and identifiable. Any ship that fails to do that will be targeted. One does not need to get 100% of the ships that try to slip the gauntlet. Getting 2 or 3 will rapidly scare the rest, unless they are manned and owned by a dedicated Chinese crew. If the latter is true - they are toast anyway. After a short time mothers of single children will start rebelling against the Commie party for putting their only sons at risk - those sons won't be coming home for the next years new yearSelamat Pagi wrote:
Gosh, the captain can just turn the GPS tracking off. And then what ?
It seems you skipped the part in my post about Indian military having full capability to see every dinghy in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean in real time. Every ship must have a "ships manifest" that shows what was loaded onto it, where, when and the destination. These are available to anyone interested for a modest fee, even in wartime.Selamat Pagi wrote:Gosh, the captain can just turn the GPS tracking off. And then what ?
Victor wrote:It seems you skipped the part in my post about Indian military having full capability to see every dinghy in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean in real time. Every ship must have a "ships manifest" that shows what was loaded onto it, where, when and the destination. These are available to anyone interested for a modest fee, even in wartime.Selamat Pagi wrote:Gosh, the captain can just turn the GPS tracking off. And then what ?
shiv wrote:How stupid. In wartime no one wants to be sunk and every shipowner carrying legitimate cargo will keep his ship visible and identifiable. Any ship that fails to do that will be targeted. One does not need to get 100% of the ships that try to slip the gauntlet. Getting 2 or 3 will rapidly scare the rest, unless they are manned and owned by a dedicated Chinese crew. If the latter is true - they are toast anyway. After a short time mothers of single children will start rebelling against the Commie party for putting their only sons at risk - those sons won't be coming home for the next years new yearSelamat Pagi wrote:
Gosh, the captain can just turn the GPS tracking off. And then what ?
How naive and charming! And stupidSelamat Pagi wrote: Now what ? India going to sink this ship ?
shiv wrote:How naive and charming! And stupidSelamat Pagi wrote: Now what ? India going to sink this ship ?
The reply exists on an earlier page
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 1#p1429451
Boarding 2 ships of neutral operators will send insurance rates and cost skyrocketing.
