Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

[Sanku]

Interestingly, Ram Jethmalani who has called for Modi to be declared the PM candidate of BJP was also questioning the D4. Surely there is no smoke without fire.

Yes there can be smoke created by INC to cause confusion when there is no fire.

Anyway RJ has chequered history he has been against ABV at times, against congress at other times, and with Shanti Bhushan and their likes too.

Random guy, to say the least.

[rkirankr]

Now anyone want to have cheaper beef , come to KA

[Yagnasri]

In KA, INC does not have a leader who can really lead at least within party ( This is true in most of the INC ruled states) Most of the contenders do not have any good record of administration though they have served in State and Central Govert. Remember SM Krishna reading his "speach". Most of the "contenders: are like that only.

So we can not write of BJP and one year (even Six months if it is Oct 2013 elections) is a long time in politics.

[RajeshA]

No Congress Wave

[muraliravi]

^^^ you should not thank yeddy, you should thank the loh purush Advani. Politics is about governance and also the knack of winning elections. There was no reason for LKA to force yeddy out of the chair.

[kmkraoind]

Read this article in Churmuri about Ananth Kumar. Worth reading in full.

“It became obvious to me that she was going in for a big kill. What exactly that would be, I could not fathom. But it would be big or nothing at all. At that time I had no idea that she would spread her wings into the political arena to satisfy her craving for business and power.

“So it came as a shock to me when I discovered, one day, when visiting her farmhouse, dancing closely with NDA minister Ananth Kumar to western ballroom music….

***

“Niira always thought big. She was not satisfied with piddling assignments. Her ultimate ambition was to start her own airline. To achieve this target she needed the help of the new aviation minister, Ananth Kumar, who was a member of Parliament from Karnataka.

[Sanku]

^^^ But Yeddi was foul mouthing Gadakari most recently before he left (when Gadakari is not supposed to be close to AK at all, and had also snubbed him) -- so what gives?

People are giving more bhaav to AK that he deserves, he is inconsequential.

[ShyamSP]

No Congress Wave

Clear evidence of self-destruction. For all the moral high ground, they can't do much when Congress eats all the pie in Karnataka.

To save a few crores of corruption, they paved the way for crores of crores corruption. Now everything in Karnataka and AP becomes hunkydory.

BJP is no longer doing Dharma Yuddh when their own egos are allowed to destroy themselves. You can be slightly adharmic but can't become asuric to destroy asuratva.

[krisna]

perception of the party matters a lot-

1) BJP was a party with corruption issues- dumped yeddy till cleared by judiciary, later was kicked out from party. This is the strongest stand taken by any party against corruption.
whatever the reasons given for or against them.

2) In the same breath consider congis- they have never done this -- no corrupt person has been kicked out-- only person who directly challenged the termite party heads were put down to size. Reason broadly is - congress=corrupt. hence people are aware but have got used to it. familiarity breeds contempt. Hence people vote congis as alternative if something goes wrong with BJP/other party.

3) presstitutes play a huge role which is underestimated by all. press statements percolate to a significant number of people. similar to advertisements creates awareness with the issues.

4) local factors play a important/dominant role. However other issues mentioned above also help in it. especilally enticing laggard voters, and swing voters to some extent.

5) whatever happens to congis- whether corrupt or not- its traditional supporters - minorities and sc/sts never desert the party. This is something to understand. particlularly minorities. They never change parties -- ex MIM in Hyderabad, local strong muslim parties and congis in the rest of the country. To hell with corruption poor governance or any other -- they unfailingly vote them. . sc/sts monoploy has been broken with rise of awareness of sc/sts etc but minorities have a strong sense of identity which is further worsened by its supporters parties.

6) non minorities swing between all parties -- who are the ones who bring or vote out BJP. They are not the vote banks like minorities and others(ex KHAM, MY etc)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IOW non minorities and well aware folks(noncaptive vote banks) talk about governance corruption etc, they are the swing voters in broad sense. they make or break BJP.

Here NaMo has the strongest support base because of his record on the ground, despite aggressive attempts by c-system to break him. he also keeps in touch with people through his innovative use of technoogy in bringing transparency to his functioning which has created a favorable wind to him.
c system knows the pulse of its traditional voter banks who will never desert it.
If a small whiff of any corruption charges or any other lie sticks to NaMo the whole support base of NaMo(non captive banks) will collapse in no time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
people blame the d4 or others for faults of BJP , but these are really secondary effects. The primary issues are the above which have to be taken care of.
The same trouble is with congis if not much more but they have a better record of winning.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Overall BJP will always fight with its back to its wall despite whatever steps it takes to fight corruption or any other charges.( including kandahar, kargil etc etc).

[RamaY]

Thanks for the Data RajeshA garu. Also agree completely on NM positioning in the other thread.

Added Later:

It is kind of funny. How it 'appears' like the voters elected Congress when BSY and BJP back stabbed each other.

Moral of the story for BJP. There are no political assassinations, there are just political suicides. What did BJP achieve by all this? Did it serve Karnataka interests by gifting the power to Congress, which it claims a worse alternative?

[Muppalla]

I would be cautious about that ... there is definitely a vote bank that feels that they are getting screwed by corruption. The street vegetable seller who has to pay off the cops, or the small shop-keeper who has to pay off municipal inspectors - these are the kind of people who came out on the streets in lakhs to support Anna Hazare.

But the key thing is connecting issues of corruption with the day to day life of the common man. That is what the AAP is trying to do. If other parties want to leave that political space vacant then the AAP is there to occupy it.

Sorry, bakwaas. I will bet and can buy all of them by distributing cash. All I need is 100 cr per constituency.

[Sanku]

O boy, o boy o boy (capital is not mine please mods -- that is the text of telegram)

http://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1 ... 453_b.html

UNI WIRELESS SERVICE REPORTED AUGUST 21 FROM NEW DELHI THAT
EX-RULER OF GWALIOR MADHAV RAO SCINDIA RESIGNED FROM JANA SANGH
AND HAS OFFERED SUPPORT TO MRS GANDHI'S NEW ECONOMIC PROGRAM
WHICH HE REPORTEDLY CONVEYED IN A LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER.
SCINDIA, ACCORDING TO OUR INFORMATION, WENT INTO HIDING SOON
AFTER THE EMERGENCY. HIS MOTHER, MRS VIJAYA RAJE SCINDIA,
VICE PRESIDENT OF JANA SANGH, IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN
ARRESTED IN NEW DELHI ON JUNE 29 AFTER OFFERING SATYAGRAHA.
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

AS REPORTED EARLIER, THE SCINDIA FAMILY AND THE BUSINESSES
OWNED BY IT ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION OF INCOME TAX
AUTHORITIES AND WAS SUBJECTED TO SEARCHES INCLUDING SEIZURE OF
IMPORTANT BUSINESS DOCUMENTS. IN OUR VIEW, SCINDIA BUCKLED UNDER
STRONG GOVERNMENT PRESSURES WHICH, IF CONTINUED, COULD
HAVE BEEN RUINOUS FINANCIALLY FOR HIM.

THE RSS-BASED CADRE OF JANA SANGH IS WORST
AFFECTED IN MADHYA PRADESH. WE LEARN THAT ONE OF ITS
IMPORTANT FUNCTIONARIES DR SHEJWALKAR OF GWALIOR WHO WAS
ESCAPING MISA ARREST TILL NOW WAS RECENTLY ROUNDED UP. LITTLE
IS KNOWN ABOUT OTHERS SUCH AS KHUSHABHAU THAKRE,
PYARE LAL KHANDELWAL AND DR PATANKAR.

[ShyamSP]

Thanks for the Data RajeshA garu. Also agree completely on NM positioning in the other thread.

Added Later:

It is kind of funny. How it 'appears' like the voters elected Congress when BSY and BJP back stabbed each other.

Moral of the story for BJP. There are no political assassinations, there are just political suicides. What did BJP achieve by all this? Did it serve Karnataka interests by gifting the power to Congress, which it claims a worse alternative?

Worse than that BJP will have to fight next elections with their priceless morality against funds from corrupted money from both karnataka and AP.

Yeddi clearly showed he can make or break BJP in Karnataka regardless how much effective leader he is. He affected 93 seats, not a small thing.

BJP should bring him back if they have any inkling to win next MP elections. Modi and a few of states won't be enough for them to win.

[disha]

O boy, o boy o boy (capital is not mine please mods -- that is the text of telegram)

http://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/1 ... 453_b.html

UNI WIRELESS SERVICE REPORTED AUGUST 21 FROM NEW DELHI THAT
EX-RULER OF GWALIOR MADHAV RAO SCINDIA RESIGNED FROM JANA SANGH
AND HAS OFFERED SUPPORT TO MRS GANDHI'S NEW ECONOMIC PROGRAM
WHICH HE REPORTEDLY CONVEYED IN A LETTER TO THE PRIME MINISTER.
SCINDIA, ACCORDING TO OUR INFORMATION, WENT INTO HIDING SOON
AFTER THE EMERGENCY. HIS MOTHER, MRS VIJAYA RAJE SCINDIA,
VICE PRESIDENT OF JANA SANGH, IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN
ARRESTED IN NEW DELHI ON JUNE 29 AFTER OFFERING SATYAGRAHA.
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE

AS REPORTED EARLIER, THE SCINDIA FAMILY AND THE BUSINESSES
OWNED BY IT ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION OF INCOME TAX
AUTHORITIES AND WAS SUBJECTED TO SEARCHES INCLUDING SEIZURE OF
IMPORTANT BUSINESS DOCUMENTS. IN OUR VIEW, SCINDIA BUCKLED UNDER
STRONG GOVERNMENT PRESSURES WHICH, IF CONTINUED, COULD
HAVE BEEN RUINOUS FINANCIALLY FOR HIM.

THE RSS-BASED CADRE OF JANA SANGH IS WORST
AFFECTED IN MADHYA PRADESH. WE LEARN THAT ONE OF ITS
IMPORTANT FUNCTIONARIES DR SHEJWALKAR OF GWALIOR WHO WAS
ESCAPING MISA ARREST TILL NOW WAS RECENTLY ROUNDED UP. LITTLE
IS KNOWN ABOUT OTHERS SUCH AS KHUSHABHAU THAKRE,
PYARE LAL KHANDELWAL AND DR PATANKAR.

Rumours were always floating on how M R Scindia was co-opted. Here it is confirmed! Jai Ho!

That shows, Jyotirditya has been completely domesticated (same as Sachin Pilot).

[disha]

Thanks for the Data RajeshA garu. Also agree completely on NM positioning in the other thread.

Added Later:

It is kind of funny. How it 'appears' like the voters elected Congress when BSY and BJP back stabbed each other.

Moral of the story for BJP. There are no political assassinations, there are just political suicides. What did BJP achieve by all this? Did it serve Karnataka interests by gifting the power to Congress, which it claims a worse alternative?

Worse than that BJP will have to fight next elections with their priceless morality against funds from corrupted money from both karnataka and AP.

Yeddi clearly showed he can make or break BJP in Karnataka regardless how much effective leader he is. He affected 93 seats, not a small thing.

BJP should bring him back if they have any inkling to win next MP elections. Modi and a few of states won't be enough for them to win.

Ktk state elections are a side show. Yeddi is completely up for sale. He basically announced with this election that he can bring in 20 or so seats in LS into play with "whoever he aligns with".

Yeddi forgets that there is the JD(S) and they can band together with CONgi to create a triangular fight and still beat BJP - but not in all areas. CONgi is hence comfortable in that fact. If Yeddi goes to CONgi, he will be treated worse than a *dog* (Yeddi forgets that) so he is going to use that as a bargaining chip to get back into BJP. For BJP, Yeddi is needed to do a good show in Ktk and create a straight fight, but giving Yeddi bhav now will be like feeding bakasura. So it is the typical Indian dance of bargaining going on. In the process, BJP wants to cut down Yeddi (rightly so) and Yeddi wants to command over BJP State (and then maybe center - rightly so).

If JD(s) did not have a good showing in this elections then Yeddi would have come into play. With JD(s) in play, Yeddi has been cut down (why would CONgi unite with Yeddi, when they have the JD(s) to align with strategically?)

Regarding the money flowing in from K'tka, the neo-urban have clearly shown their pref. with BJP. And that is where the money is. So it will be difficult for CONgi to do whole sale loot from urban areas, they will have to resort to something else (EJ?)

Edit: Added later, for CONgi it is compounded problem since they do not have a YSR type in Ktk. They have bunch of local satraps and each will spend time with their band of MLAs at Sonia Maino's altar. The governance is going for a toss that is given.

Problem is in India, other than Modi, SC Chauhan, Parrikar and Jaya, not many get it that governance and politics are different. You have to give a good governance and still play ruthless politics. CONgis only play politics and loot and governance goes for a toss. BJP tries to play all and loses elections.

[RajeshA]

There can be two different models for evolution of anti-corruption - sudden and gradual.

One can say, it is impossible to remove corruption altogether in one go, so one would have to have some framework in place through which it can be successively decreased. This claim of being completely white, free of corruption, is simply unrealistic. Better to acknowledge it up front.

The framework is RSS and Democratic oversight, the framework is increasing transparency in government. One can work on all that.

So one should go for gradual removal of corruption model and not for some claim of being corruption free.

BSY should be allowed back in. Outside he is politically done. He needs to be brought back in. Actually he should be asked to stay out of the electoral fray and BJP should let some of his relatives in on Lok Sabha tickets in 2014. But KJP should never again fight elections against BJP.

[disha]

In about 60% of the country the fundamentals of elections mechanism of 1980s and 1990s did not change. It is about effective use of caste and money. How money is used is a huge topic. I spent two times in life with a candidate of primary party and went through the nitty-gritty of election campaign. Anti-corruption campaign or pro-governance campaigns are only catalyst and does not contribute even 2% to election victory.

I would say always it is socio-cultural grouping based politics (caste, religion itiyadi). Money motivates effective groupings towards an election.

In Guj. they tried to bring in compulsory voting. Of course CONgi governor rejected it. With compulsory voting in place, the money part would have been possibly curbed.

[disha]

There can be two different models for evolution of corruption - sudden and gradual.

One can say, it is impossible to remove corruption altogether in one go, so one would have to have some framework in place through which it can be successively decreased. This claim of being completely white, free of corruption, is simply unrealistic. Better to acknowledge it up front.

The framework is RSS and Democratic oversight, the framework is increasing transparency in government. One can work on all that.

So one should go for gradual removal of corruption model and not for some claim of being corruption free.

BSY should be allowed back in. Outside he is politically done. He needs to be brought back in. Actually he should be asked to stay out of the electoral fray and BJP should let some of his relatives in on Lok Sabha tickets in 2014. But KJP should never again fight elections against BJP.

To twist it around, one can have chota-mota corruption, some "len-den", some "compromise", some 'chai-pani' but not large scale ethical violations.

Issue of "corruption" in Ktk for Yeddi, has been blown out of proportion by BJP. They were upset that they did not get the cut ( and Yeddi took it all for himself ) and hence an "example" was made out of Yeddi. Compounded by BJP believing too much in the MSM noise.

BJP should do what it needs to do. Which is ruthlessly win election and how to differentiate from CONgis - tell that they are better at governance, have nationalistic outlook and care for all Indians. Modi has already given them the motto - India first. Just take that and run with it (Modi as a mascot helps).

[svenkat]

Shaardula saar,
paging you again.Whats your perception on why Yeddyurappa and Reddys fell out.

My perception was that Yeddyurappa as a lingayat/RSS type wanted to cut the reddys down to size.Thats why it is inexplicable why he chickened out and did not fight out the charges of corruption.There was no direct accusation against him.The charge against him was that he denotified land belonging to BDA which had been illegally sold to his sons who in turn sold it to a mining company.

The Lokayuktas FIR was quashed by KA HC that no quid pro was established and the HC remarked that Yeddyurappas reputation had been tarnished by his arrest.The amount involved around 20 crores which is small change for a KA CM.Yeddyurappas fault was denotification of land which is a charge of nepotism and illegality than corruption.

To me this is where BJP top leadership failed.There was very definitely an issue between Yeddyurappa between Reddys.It was a relatively minor issue then if it was seen as a local issue and Dilli Billis should have gone to the bottom of it and solved it.The Dilli Billis thought it was a problem between vaanaras of Kishkinda.Why did D4 allow the issue to fester.

Because the issues involved were non-trivial.It goes to the heart of what I call the 'Symantaka Mani problem' in Late Dvapara Yuga.Who has the right over the riches of the land-its minerals and metals.The Reddys wanted it.This is a recurring problem whether it is oil-gas blocks,coal blocks,iron ore mining,granite mining.The BJP central leadership should have addresed it with the seriousness it demanded.The BJP must have faced such issues in Jharkhand,MP,Chattisgarh,Rajasthan.Here the CM and the main financial backers/sponsors were involved.Why did they ignore this problem?

It is troubling and loh purush/aj/ss/ak have to pay the price for their complete lack of leadership.

Why is that Yeddyurappa did not rally the people of KA over this issue.His lack of leadership/focus is unbelievable

[vivek.rao]

The lessons from K'taka

1. BJP was funded and had a core group of Mining Mafia MLAs in 2008 election.
2. True, Yeddi won because of sympathy for him 2008.
3. Yeddi did deliver Governance for 2 years but allowed Mining lobby/mafia to take over his party. The important thing is you should be able to rein them in instead he gave ministries and destroy the public perception of BJP.
4. It is easy to manipulate using CBI and Governor to destabilize any state Govt. especially when they are in minority and have a core compromised group. The CM has to be smart like Modi and deliver, stay behind the radar and use press effectively to succeed. Yeddi did not do that. Sonia used Lokpal and Governor to destroy BJP. The Delhi BJP did not counter the game.

5. Yeddi was no mood to relent even for 1 or 2 years after Congress tool Hegde and Governanor cornered him.
6. After yeddi gor cleared, BJP should have pushed him into party position. Instead Advani & Ananth Kumar went on a war path. Advani is in no mood to relent. He is going postal worker. Either me as BJP PM candidate or I will destroy all the chances of BJP. He has complete support of paid media and Congress.
7. He knows Yeddi and Modi can work together. Even after Yedii left, Advani has been using every opportunity to make sure there is no reconciliation. He wants to destroy any assistance that strengthen BJP chances with Modi.

Deon't despair.

Trust K'taka voters. In the one election (of Vidhan sabha & Lok sabha) , they voted Congress for Center and Janata Party (Hedge) in the assembly. They are smart.

But the course of action is: Remove Ananthkumar, Advani; Project Modi; Bring Yeddi back after 3 months; Unite the party.

But the question is will Advani let them workout this plan? Sonia and media will give him all the help he needs to make sure that this does not happen. Can Modi counter them?

[ramana]

BSY wont join INC. Yeddi's task is to ensure BJP is a zero in Karnataka even in LS elections. Looks like more than ego is at play.

[Prem]

quote="varunkumar"]quote="suryag"]

It is first important to recognize this. Instead BJP's think tanks on this forum and also all over the digital world discuss hot air topics. You cannot defeat this mafia without getting blood on you. If you keep removing the warriors who have blood on their hands, you will just never be capable of defeating this mafia. I will again bet has Yeddi been part of BJP today even after anti-incumbency, BJP would have reached 85 seats. Even if he is a jokers the strategists at the top could not find a way to accommodate him. Moral high ground has no room in Indian politics.

This reminds me of quote by my elder brother in Dilli that comparing to Congress BJP folks are naive , not even know how to take bribe in secrecy. Congress have every experienced crook and grooke on payroll. Next fight is between the Neanderthals Of Indian Politics and Narendher Bhai of Indian People. Chakraview is set up, Anhimanyu Modi is in the middle and Pitamah Loh Purush and His Coterie Too Standing with Kaurvanress. Lets hope this time he knows how to break it and escape before they all together get rid of him and extinguish the little ray of hope he brings to Indian people.

[prahaar]

My perception was that Yeddyurappa as a lingayat/RSS type wanted to cut the reddys down to size.

Can you please elaborate on this?

The Dilli Billis thought it was a problem between vaanaras of Kishkinda.

Sir, does it mean that the Dilli Billis did not feel any concern or have any understanding about the local situation or does it mean that Dilli Billis consider KA people monkeys? I see a lot of anguish in those words. If AK and VN are indeed so close to the Dilli Billis, there is ample evidence that they failed thoroughly to represent the regions' interests at the national level.

I have more hope in NM (not because he is the only hope visible), but also because he has traveled extensively through out India, and with that it is natural to develop a sense of belonging to the sthan-devta under whose chhatra one has lived. Based on wiki knowledge, LKA, AJ, SS have been in NI and Delhi predominantly, this can develop a blindspot (even with best of intentions) for other regions. That is the reason BJP high command should be more representative of the states, for this the incumbents need to be booted out, plain and simple.

[shaardula]

i scraped the election commission website. some preliminary results from that.

No. of Constituencies: 223 (in one of the constituencies, one of the candidates died, so no elections)
No. of Parties: 59
No. of Candidates: 2891
No. of Votes: 31182501

distribution of % votes by constituencies


% votes by constituencies


note these dont say anything about the jerrymandering of the state. just points out that the state was on the whole equally enthusiastic about the elections.
graph shows the dead guy's constituency. moments calculated by ignoring that.

top 10 parties by vote share

Indian National Congress 36.54%
Janata Dal (Secular) 20.10%
Bharatiya Janata Party 19.95%
Karnataka Jantha Paksha 9.84%
Independent 7.41%
Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party 2.69%
Bahujan Samaj Party 0.91%
Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha 0.35%
Samajwadi Party 0.34%
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF INDIA 0.32%

note BJP+KJP+BSRC still less than INC, but greater than JDS. Although these are statewide numbers. I will get to constituency wide numbers later.


more later

[JohnTitor]

Ok. So the results are in and BJP is gone.. According to my friend who has inside contacts, this is "good" in that it will help kar send BJP MPs next year (http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1448856)

My take is this, even if that is true, fact is Ka contributes only 28 seats. So even if BJP won all 28 (very unlikely), this doesn't speak for other states.

Secondly, this election has proven one thing - there is no "modi wave" as many of us had thought. I don't blame NM at all for this loss, contrary, without him, I suspect BJP would have been in 20s. Never the less, this has shown that internet voters are just that. They vote online and talk about corruption and everything. On the ground, its only the poor that vote and its only their needs that NM/BJP should address. Screw the middle class. Spending time on them is a waste as all they do is provide support online and talk of congi corruption but when it comes time to walk, they won't get off their @ss.

Third, this election has proven (re-proven actually, after UK, HP etc) that corruption isn't something that the average voter (i.e poor) cares about. As long as he gets his 10k, hes happy.. nation be damned. So only chance for BJP to win is if they pay out money to all these people.

In conclusion, there is gonna be UPA-3. Nothing anyone can do anything about.

I am not sure if there was "EVM magic" .. I wouldnt be surprised if there was but I don't think there was - otherwise how come noone ever complains, something this big has to have a leak somewhere, right?

Lastly, I wish my fellow kannadigas a good journey ahead. I hope this new govt gives the poor all the hardships you can imagine and make their life miserable. I hope they pay the price for this. This is what they deserve for voting in anti-nationals for a measly 10k.

[svenkat]

Dubious deal which landed Yeddyurappa in trouble
prahaarji,
Theres no anguish in me. I am not a native of KA and I am just a disinterested observer.
But BJP has squandered this opportunity,thats all.Regarding yeddyuraapas motivation I can only guess.Thats why I asked shaardula saars opinions.Throughout India,in many states,state administration expect a certain cut from business interests particularly those in the mineral sector.Its not inconceivable that Yeddyurappa wanted greater say or even cut in the mining deals.Clearly Yeddyurappa was lacking in strength of ideals and integrity inspite of his long association with RSS.

Whats the legitimacy for yeddyurappas expectations.In AP,MH and TN it is common now for the ruling dispensation to get some cut in such projects.Its not inconceivable that Yeddyurappa also fell into the same lure.Both Reddys and Yeddyurappa have suffered.Reddys are also native to Bellary.Theres no consistency in Yeddyurappas behaviour.What he wanted is not clear.He was not blackmailing like a YSR or mu.ka.Thats why someone in Delhi must have solved the problem in its infancy.

It seems that Yeddyurappa had no problem with the Reddy model except in details.What were those details?or was it that he felt that the Reddys were an alternate power centre stronger than even the CM? Why would any CM tolerate that?

Whos VK?

[Sanku]

Secondly, this election has proven one thing -

Thank you thank you I accept.


(ramana garu a specific reason for one line post with a emoticon please -- just responding to something here)

[Sanku]

BSY wont join INC. Yeddi's task is to ensure BJP is a zero in Karnataka even in LS elections. Looks like more than ego is at play.

Very perceptive Ramana ji.

[Sushupti]

i scraped the election commission website. some preliminary results from that.

No. of Constituencies: 223 (in one of the constituencies, one of the candidates died, so no elections)
No. of Parties: 59
No. of Candidates: 2891
No. of Votes: 31182501

distribution of % votes by constituencies


% votes by constituencies


note these dont say anything about the jerrymandering of the state. just points out that the state was on the whole equally enthusiastic about the elections.
graph shows the dead guy's constituency. moments calculated by ignoring that.

top 10 parties by vote share

Indian National Congress 36.54%
Janata Dal (Secular) 20.10%
Bharatiya Janata Party 19.95%
Karnataka Jantha Paksha 9.84%
Independent 7.41%
Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party 2.69%
Bahujan Samaj Party 0.91%
Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha 0.35%
Samajwadi Party 0.34%
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF INDIA 0.32%

note BJP+KJP+BSRC still less than INC, but greater than JDS. Although these are statewide numbers. I will get to constituency wide numbers later.


more later

BJP+KJP > Congress on 93 seats. Total vote wise even in last election BJP was less than congress.

[shaardula]

venkat, yedi small fish.

lingayats as a community are a proud people with long memories. sikhs of ka by all measures including % of people serving in the indian army. arguably the greatest flag bearers of the kannada cause. it was they who where most dissatisfied by the dadagiri of bombay and hyderabad in the first place, and it was their effort that got karnataka united in the first place. congress used to have them, and then the high command maltreated veerendra patil. that was the beginning of end of lingayat affair with congress.

with yeddi. yeddi is sdre. street wide dharna, and local chaplus are more his speed. he's no match to the guiles of the reddy's. reddys wanted a greater say and wanted to eliminate some of the independent populist voices in bhajpa (including yeddi's pet squeeze shobha karandalge). yeddi never really could manage this balance between beauty and brawns. and he lost.

for yeddi, vice ridden ananth kumar was always a cake walk when compared to reddys & sriramulu.

to be a brahmin and lord in ka, you have to be of the stature of a ramakrishna hegde. ananth kumar is a pip-squeak in comparison. calculations in dilli may be different, but atleast in old mysore unless you a rk hegde, you might as well stay at home.

[Sanku]

^^^ How refreshing, how accurate. Much needed old BRF spark.

My pranams saar ji.

[svenkat]

shaardula saar,
thanks.

[shaardula]

vina you are uncharitable to vokkaligas. last election they shut the gowdas off didnt they? in any case, this time around jds has pan state numbers. their distribution much better than even bjp.

saying jds won blr urban seats cos of vokkaliga votes is hardly true.

before RKH died, jd was the local alternative to congress.

and vina, i for one was hoping against hope that bhajpa was grounded to the realities of ka. They played a pernicious game in CoKA which thankfully ran its course and hit a wall. What did they think, those are idiots? Uppity as they are, they snark at the ways of the people above the hills. What are they going to tolerate their politicians for? For all the obscurantism of your average kannadiga, they still dont have any patience for a superstitious leader. If yedi was really counting stars, he will do well to compute that for him, no shani worse than a pissed of 'diga.

[muraliravi]

Ok. So the results are in and BJP is gone.. According to my friend who has inside contacts, this is "good" in that it will help kar send BJP MPs next year (http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 6#p1448856)

My take is this, even if that is true, fact is Ka contributes only 28 seats. So even if BJP won all 28 (very unlikely), this doesn't speak for other states.

Secondly, this election has proven one thing - there is no "modi wave" as many of us had thought. I don't blame NM at all for this loss, contrary, without him, I suspect BJP would have been in 20s. Never the less, this has shown that internet voters are just that. They vote online and talk about corruption and everything. On the ground, its only the poor that vote and its only their needs that NM/BJP should address. Screw the middle class. Spending time on them is a waste as all they do is provide support online and talk of congi corruption but when it comes time to walk, they won't get off their @ss.

Third, this election has proven (re-proven actually, after UK, HP etc) that corruption isn't something that the average voter (i.e poor) cares about. As long as he gets his 10k, hes happy.. nation be damned. So only chance for BJP to win is if they pay out money to all these people.

In conclusion, there is gonna be UPA-3. Nothing anyone can do anything about.

I am not sure if there was "EVM magic" .. I wouldnt be surprised if there was but I don't think there was - otherwise how come noone ever complains, something this big has to have a leak somewhere, right?

Lastly, I wish my fellow kannadigas a good journey ahead. I hope this new govt gives the poor all the hardships you can imagine and make their life miserable. I hope they pay the price for this. This is what they deserve for voting in anti-nationals for a measly 10k.

To say that there is no NaMo wave is wrong. As you have seen, out of the 3 districts where he campaigned BJP at least did OK. if not for him, they would have been routed there also. And plus this is a local election. I would say based on bangalore and belgaum results, there is surely a NaMo wave and he will cash on that in the LS elections. If BJP after squandering their 2008 mandate in KA and screwed up governance, NaMo can save them in 2/3 disctricts where he campaigned, I am sure he can rob congress of their 205 LS seats in quite some significant measure.

[negi]

Good riddance.

[shaardula]

Good riddance.

i swear!

[member_20317]

Problem is in India, other than Modi, SC Chauhan, Parrikar and Jaya, not many get it that governance and politics are different. You have to give a good governance and still play ruthless politics. CONgis only play politics and loot and governance goes for a toss. BJP tries to play all and loses elections.

Bingo.

It probably is the background radiation caused by the undermining that has gone on for decades along the following lines:
1) A guru mentioning yagya/niyam/rituals etc. is all hocus pocus.
2) Politics is the last refuge of scoundrels
3) Businessmen are corrupt
4) Service is for others

I think Niku also qualifies though. The desire to take charge is just not there in the current crop of BhaJPa central leadership. 10 years out of power and they still do not have any major shake up of the system planned.

[Sriman]

Few more points in addition to those articulated by Shaardula:

1. BJP had to go all out to woo Lingayat/NoKa voterbase away from Yeddi after the split happened. It didn't work and it was always going to backfire in the other regions. It wasn't even subtle: Radio ads with NoKa accents, Shettar saying a vote for BJP is a vote for a NoKa CM etc. Coastal people and Vokkaligas weren't going to take kindly to that. Even then i think BJP would have been ok with it if their bet had worked, it didn't. That's the way the dice rolls at times.

2. People haven't been vindictive to BJP in general. Good BJP folks have been voted back. Lot of people asked if corruption was an issue or ideology was an issue. People would have tolerated corruption, but people don't tolerate apathy and arrogance. Plenty of people (including Yeddi himself) in the previous administration were guilty of that. That's the price of op Lotus. I'm pretty sure Congis led by DiKeShi will do the same in this term.

3. I've definitely come around as far as JD(S) is concerned. They don't compete for the same votebank with BJP (for the most part) and are capable of causing a lot of damage to Congress down south. Someone called them SP of KA, so be it. They'll be open to supporting BJP at the center if they win handful of seats in LS elections. If that comes at the expense of Congress, even better. If they end up supporting congress, it doesn't really matter. Those seats are not BJP's to win anyway in the short term.

4. There is a leadership vaccum in the state and i'm not really sure who's capable of filling it in the long term. I don't think Yeddi or Shettar is the answer. And i hope Siddu doesn't become the CM.

[Muppalla]

BSY wont join INC. Yeddi's task is to ensure BJP is a zero in Karnataka even in LS elections. Looks like more than ego is at play.

It is how you utilize a vulnerable person. BJP too had same kind of opportunities. It is just that congress mastered due to complete useless strategists at the top. An illiterate on the street will do better than the top-honchos of BJP. I believe in case of Yeddi, INC will not be able to extend to LS. Things will not be allowed to go further and KA is last nail.

[Pranav]

Sorry, bakwaas. I will bet and can buy all of them by distributing cash. All I need is 100 cr per constituency.

OK, so you are vehemently insisting that the cash handouts of 500, 1000 that are typically handed out will definitely out-weigh 5 years of daily harassment / extortion, siphoning away of funds from infrastructure, schools, roads, inflated utility charges etc.