Narendra Modi vs the Dynasty: Contrasting Ideas of India

Theo_Fidel · Post by **Theo_Fidel** » 17 Jun 2013 11:16

Nitishs view point is very simple to understand.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 624414.cms

You had an assurance from senior BJP leaders that your views would not be ignored while deciding NDA's PM candidate? In fact, some of them are reported to have told you that your continuance in the NDA would help them stall Modi in his tracks.

There were many things which were discussed informally. However, the fact is that these things don't matter. After the developments which have rapidly unfolded, there remains only one relevant fact, that the BJP has entered a new era which will be dominated by just one individual. Everybody else has been tamed into submission and has become irrelevant. Issues and ideology don't matter. A situation has been created where BJP people in Bihar are wary of praising the achievements of a government of which they were a part. They are scared that they would be seen as running down another "model" of development. People are scared of even talking of Bihar's asmita (pride). This is not good for democracy. I say this with a sense of responsibility. An entire party has been bulldozed in the name of workers and cadre. Whoever criticizes gets abused on Twitter and Facebook. Abuses are heaped on journalists as well as others, who don't agree with a particular viewpoint or join in the propaganda. Is this democracy? What happened to right to dissent? All these things helped make up our mind.

But the BJP sees Narendra Modi as their saviour?

A: It is irrational exuberance. The euphoria is of no consequence. It does not reflect the popular mood and opinion. The fact is that we can hope to bring an alternative government only under the leadership of someone who enjoys the confidence of all sections. It is the BJP which is the loser because were are not claimants for prime ministership.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 17 Jun 2013 11:20

Theoji, it is nice to see that you take some individual's word at face value but will not do the same for other individuals. Just shows your bias, plain and simple.

Added later, sote hue ko jagaya jata hai, lekin, sone ka dhong karne wale ko nahi.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Jun 2013 11:24

Ok, that the BJP is Turing into a one man show, because of the cadre, makes it difficulty to work with the BJP.

Ok I can accept the point.

Theo, lets step back and take another dispassionate look at the political spectrum. What do we see.

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 17 Jun 2013 11:30

Has anybody figured out why NiKu travelled to Pakistan, and establish "you scratch my back" relationships with folks like Imran Khan? Imran Khan, IIRC, was openly supportive of jihad-e-Kashmir till a few years ago.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Jun 2013 11:31

I can understand Nitish trying to play victim. He has to answer to Bihar's people sooner or later. Too bad his desperate attempts at raising the temperature failed to get the BJP to bite the bait and expel him - an event he would have miled for sympathy to maximum effect.

Fine, like Manohar Parikkar (was it him?) v nicely put it "A leader who delivers cannot be an ajatshatru (one without enemies). There'll always be those who lose out who will oppose."

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 17 Jun 2013 11:34

If Congress, the one family show can rule India for decades and gather support from other sundry parties then what is so wrong with one man show in BJP?

And then Trinamool is not one person party? SP, BSP are not one person parties? So basically this so called the third front in making will be a front of many one-person parties, including NiKu's own party. And they expect it to be cohesive? Secularism cannot be an adhesive for political alliance.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jun 2013 11:36

>> lets step back and take another dispassionate look at the political spectrum. What do we see.

nobody dares to break wind in the congress without signed approval from 10 janpath. senior INC people are known to lose their voice and shiver in Her presence.

for unknown reasons She evokes more fear than stalin or lavrenti beria.

same goes for SP, BSP, Trinamool, DMK , national conference, NCP, both the factions of shiv sena and ofcourse AIADMK...all of these have a big boss and varying degrees of pain are inflicted on anyone who dares to step out of line.

it was only BJP that was lacking a commander leader and now has got it. loh purush and D4 were not commanding leaders

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 17 Jun 2013 11:41

Anindya wrote:Has anybody figured out why NiKu travelled to Pakistan, and establish "you scratch my back" relationships with folks like Imran Khan? Imran Khan, IIRC, was openly supportive of jihad-e-Kashmir till a few years ago.

NiKu's defection is the best thing happened to BJP. NaMo can now focus on Bihar, UP, MP, Rajasthan, Gujrat and Punjab. Also his leadership will be tested in Maharashtra and Karnataka. I hope BJP, Shiv Sena and MNS form alliance in Maharashtra. Similarly NaMo has to make peace with BSY in Karnataka.

Overall the picture looks quite positive for BJP. There is no turning back now.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Jun 2013 11:45

So again why the Khujli with the way the cadre has forced the elevation of Modi. Tomorrow if Modi fails to deliver. The cadre will also force the removal of Modi.

Why the big khujli in that.

Bliss to educate this unwashed abdul onlee.........

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jun 2013 11:46

barbarians fear nothing more than veteran field commanders being given command of the legions, rather than soft rome-based patricians who move around in a large covered wagon than horseback ....

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 17 Jun 2013 11:53

Had Niku not defected his party would have been swallowed by mighty Modi. NiKu is smart and he has taken correct calculated risk. The best thing to save his political career is to split from BJP and not let other JDs pray on his votebank. He may not rule India as he dreamed before but he will do enough to survive (and make money... in short).

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Jun 2013 12:03

It is indeed quite interesting, why would Nitish split, and that too now. Both the decision and timing are very difficult to explain. I think time will explain why. Possibly the question of money from outside India is finally true.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Jun 2013 12:10

Nitish is desperately trying to play victim, however he says this

11:42 Why didn't Advani address our concerns if Atal is unwell: Nitish: "The split with the NDA is not a hasty decision. It was decided after due consideration and taken at the right time," he says dismissing the BJP's charge. He reiterated that the the JD-U had a cordial relationship with Sushil Modi, the deputy chief minister of Bihar, but "external forces changed that. I had no option but the sack BJP minister as they remained absent for the Cabinet meet."

"I know Atalji has been unwell and we pray for his speedy recovery. But if he was unwell, Advaniji could have addressed our concerns," he added.

Advani basically seems to have told NiKu to get lost.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jun 2013 12:12

All kinds of arguments are found based on level of payment received - Suddenly Advani became Respectable Senior Citizen, BJP is in the danger of going to in Individual based party (why do you care??? if it does) NaMo is dagerous for BJP and RSS itself. (why we donot know) He is dangerous for Democracy ( more than mafia and Amul Baba with I national daamad???) His model of Development is not incluside (which one is then???) He is for Big Corporates only ( What Moily saying just the other day???) He has hunger for power and ambition to become PM (why not I say? We all have hunger and ambition to become something Right? What is wrong with that? It is the manner in which we want to reach our goal and what we wish to do with the power that is improtant) Now he can not build NDA ( So be it why do you care???)

Not surprisingly we do not see Media asking any questions to Amul Baba or any one else of Mafia gang. It treats INC mafia as celebraties. Useless.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 17 Jun 2013 12:46

Sanku ji, one difference, at this point between LKA and Niku is that LKA knows he is an untouchable outside the Sangh and he wisely decided not to force the issue at this point. Niku somehow believes that he would be very much in demand with the minorities despite him having been touched by the Sanghis.

Presuming LKA has not seen the light yet, I am sure LKA would have reasoned with Niku as to the desirability of staying on to pre-empt NM completely in later stages. This reason would have held especially considering no amount of secularism can make Niku a re-touchable.

Presuming LKA has seen the light and is unwilling to help out Niku at and beyond this stage he would have told Niku to back off. Again the re-touchability issue remains for Niku.

In both cases for Niku, it is a gamble that we cannot really understand at this point.

For BJP it is a good state of affairs that OTOneH Karyakartas and leadership are on the same page and OTOH the Karyakartas have a real hope of establishing a working relationship with sympathizers and onwards with the larger India. It is high time that the flight envelop is opened up and IOC-1&2 are completed fast say by December 13.

niran · Post by **niran** » 17 Jun 2013 12:50

ravi_g wrote:Sanku ji, one difference, at this point between LKA and Niku is that LKA knows he is an untouchable outside the Sangh and he wisely decided not to force the issue at this point. Niku somehow believes that he would be very much in demand with the minorities despite him having been touched by the Sanghis.

you have forgotten "EGO" this has been fueled by kangi the way IG fueled Jugjeevan Ram the way RG fueled
Chandersekhar Singh. when nk babu usefullnes is over he won't be able to win his own seat let alone form a gobermound

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 17 Jun 2013 12:55

niran wrote:gobermound

For those who do not know Hindi but share my sensibilities regarding governments. Gober is Hindi for bovine dung.

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 17 Jun 2013 13:48

chor ki dadhi mein...

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/1849219/r ... endra-modi

n the video, Nitish had said, "I hope that Narendra Modi will not confine his services to Gujarat and will soon serve the nation.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 17 Jun 2013 13:52

States where BJP has good chance are Orange, while others are black:

1 Andhra P 42
2 Arunachal P 2
3 Assam 14
4 Bihar 40
5 Chhattisgarh 11
6 Goa 2
7 Gujarat 26
8 Haryana 10
9 Himachal 4
10 Jammu & K 6
11 Jharkhand 14
12 Karnataka 28
13 Kerala 20
14 Madhya Pradesh 29
15 Maharashtra 48
16 Manipur 2
17 Meghalaya 2
18 Mizoram 1
19 Nagaland 1
20 Orissa 21
21 Punjab 13
22 Rajasthan 25
23 Sikkim 1
24 Tamil Nadu 39
25 Tripura 2
26 Uttar Pradesh 80
27 Uttarakhand 5
28 West Bengal 42

Union Territories:

1 Andaman & Nicobar 1
2 Chandigarh 1
3 Dadra and Nagar Haveli 1
4 Daman and Diu 1
5 Delhi 7
6 Lakshadweep 1
7 Puducherry 1

So BJP has chance in 377 seats only.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 17 Jun 2013 13:58

What is this :

"I know Atalji has been unwell and we pray for his speedy recovery. But if he was unwell, Advaniji could have addressed our concerns,"

"Atalji & Advaniji created NDA. We cannot imagine a coalition without them'

Both of them 85+. These JDU & D4 supporters seem to be on a very strong dhatura juice to blurt such bullshit from their musharrafs. Their time is over, these jokers just refuse to see it.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 Jun 2013 14:16

Pratyush wrote:I cant help but think in terms of the withholding of the HP assembly election results until after the Gujarat elections were out. Add to that the margin of victory for the INC in HP.

I fear for the future of the nation. It seems that we are destined for a repeat of the hopeless lost decades of the 70s and 80s.

I disagree Saar. Either Modi lead BJP rescues Bharat. The economy is going to nose dive anyway. With Congress at the helm, dead economy will wipe congress out. You need quick decision making in times of turmoil. Congress is incapable of this. It has been shown time and again.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Jun 2013 14:18

नरेंद्र मोदी पर निशाना साधने से पहले अपना अतीत देखें नीतीश कुमार

Excellent article in Hindi on Nitish's two faced past.

साल था 2002 का. उस वक्त नीतीश कुमार रेल मंत्री थे. ये सब जानते हैं कि दंगों की शुरुआत गोधरा में रेल बोगी जलाए जाने के बाद हुई. अब नैतिकता की बात करने वाले नीतीश ने तब कुछ नहीं कहा. सत्ता के शहद में अपने दोनों पैर रगड़ते रहे. उनसे ज्यादा ठोस स्टैंड तो बिहार के रामविलास पासवान ने लिया, जो इस मुद्दे पर इस्तीफा देकर एनडीए से अलग भी हो गए. मोदी सपोर्टर एक वीडियो इन दिनों खूब शेयर कर रहे हैं. ये गुजरात में शूट हुआ था. मौका था किसी रेलवे प्रोजेक्ट की शुरुआत का. मंच पर रेल मंत्री नीतीश के साथ मुख्यमंत्री मोदी थे. नीतीश ने कहा कि मुझे उम्मीद है कि देश को एक दिन नरेंद्र भाई की सेवाएं मिलेंगी.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jun 2013 14:19

1 Andhra P 42 - Can win 2 seats in Telangana
2 Arunachal P 2
3 Assam 14 - Needs AGP - AGP may join this time.
4 Bihar 40 May get half at least.
5 Chhattisgarh 11
6 Goa 2
7 Gujarat 26
8 Haryana 10 - Not sure.
9 Himachal P 4 Should do better than Assembly.
10 Jammu & K 6 - 1 Seat of Jammu
11 Jharkhand 14
12 Karnataka 28 - recovery is possible - Certainly will be better than Assembly.
13 Kerala 20
14 Madhya Pradesh 29
15 Maharashtra 48 - if SS and MNS both join may be a sweep. Even other wise at least 50% NDA.
16 Manipur 2
17 Meghalaya 2 - Are we forgeting Nagma party - Has he not supported Modi - His girl was in UPA though.
18 Mizoram 1
19 Nagaland 1
20 Orissa 21 - Are we sure??? BJP not performed well in the resent past.
21 Punjab 13 - Anti incumbency to Akali rule ???
22 Rajasthan 25
23 Sikkim 1
24 Tamil Nadu 39 - Amma may join after elections.
25 Tripura 2
26 Uttar Pradesh 80 - This is the vital. Power will come through UP.
27 Uttarakhand 5
28 West Bengal 42 - May be 2?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jun 2013 14:21

If BJP dones well in 60% seats we are looking at 200 and with Amma 230 to 240. Rest should be easy. Nitish and people like him may stat seeing Atal in Modi also.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 17 Jun 2013 14:25

What is the point in having a BJP version of con party. SS, AJ etc don't have mass base to force their agenda and push reforms.

People are saying that modi is 'authoritarian' and 'polarising' as though these are negative points.

These are exactly why I want modi.

TBH, it is only in india he is painted as such. in most other countries he would be a centrist with priority on development.

we have utterly stupid definitions where muslim leader espousing muslim causes and behaving as though he has a separate electorate - is secular, while any hindu leader unless he pisses on hinduism, is "polarising" and "communal".

modi unrelenting on development issues is being called authoritarian, like a hitler or stalin

not amusing at all.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 17 Jun 2013 14:30

niran wrote:
ravi_g wrote:Sanku ji, one difference, at this point between LKA and Niku is that LKA knows he is an untouchable outside the Sangh and he wisely decided not to force the issue at this point. Niku somehow believes that he would be very much in demand with the minorities despite him having been touched by the Sanghis.

you have forgotten "EGO" this has been fueled by kangi the way IG fueled Jugjeevan Ram the way RG fueled
Chandersekhar Singh. when nk babu usefullnes is over he won't be able to win his own seat let alone form a gobermound

Another factor that should be accounted for is the % of Muslims in Bihar population. Official estimates state it at 16.6%. Unofficial estimates at over 25%.

If this is the future where development is going to take a back seat to appeasement, we can onlee see the trend worsening. Every 'secular' leader will try to get the Muslim backing at the expense of non Muslims.

Niku seems like a good riddance.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 17 Jun 2013 14:36

Narayana Rao wrote:If BJP dones well in 60% seats we are looking at 200 and with Amma 230 to 240. Rest should be easy. Nitish and people like him may stat seeing Atal in Modi also.

i.e if Nitish has much to contribute anything substantial after next LS elections. Apart from Nalanda and 3-4 other constituencies, there are not many seats in Bihar where JD(U) is on a strong footing on its own. This is a golden opportunity for BJP to claim Bihar provided it makes necessary changes to the local leadership.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 17 Jun 2013 14:41

panduranghari wrote: Another factor that should be accounted for is the % of Muslims in Bihar population. Official estimates state it at 16.6%. Unofficial estimates at over 25%.

If this is the future where development is going to take a back seat to appeasement, we can onlee see the trend worsening. Every 'secular' leader will try to get the Muslim backing at the expense of non Muslims.

Niku seems like a good riddance.

Fully agree. This one person one vote system is going to be unsustainable from Hindu point of view. In medium term future we should be ready to discard this system.

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 17 Jun 2013 14:53

darsshan ji
it is also unsustainable from muslim point of view. Btw, nobody uses Islam as congressis and niku-ji like people for political gains

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 17 Jun 2013 15:34

In my calculation 190 seats for BJP alone is possible.

Tumba · Post by **Tumba** » 17 Jun 2013 15:38

Narayana Rao wrote:1 Andhra P 42 - Can win 2 seats in Telangana
2 Arunachal P 2
3 Assam 14 - Needs AGP - AGP may join this time.
4 Bihar 40 May get half at least.
5 Chhattisgarh 11
6 Goa 2
7 Gujarat 26
8 Haryana 10 - Not sure.
9 Himachal P 4 Should do better than Assembly.
10 Jammu & K 6 - 1 Seat of Jammu
11 Jharkhand 14
12 Karnataka 28 - recovery is possible - Certainly will be better than Assembly.
13 Kerala 20
14 Madhya Pradesh 29
15 Maharashtra 48 - if SS and MNS both join may be a sweep. Even other wise at least 50% NDA.
16 Manipur 2
17 Meghalaya 2 - Are we forgeting Nagma party - Has he not supported Modi - His girl was in UPA though.
18 Mizoram 1
19 Nagaland 1
20 Orissa 21 - Are we sure??? BJP not performed well in the resent past.
21 Punjab 13 - Anti incumbency to Akali rule ???
22 Rajasthan 25
23 Sikkim 1
24 Tamil Nadu 39 - Amma may join after elections.
25 Tripura 2
26 Uttar Pradesh 80 - This is the vital. Power will come through UP.
27 Uttarakhand 5
28 West Bengal 42 - May be 2?

I am posting my estimates <using Lahori logic

>

1 Andhra
BJP 0
2 Arunachal
BJP 1
3 Assam
BJP 7
4 Bihar
BJP 15
5 Chhattisgarh
BJP 11
6 Goa
BJP 2
7 Gujarat
BJP 23
8 Haryana
BJP 0
9 Himachal
BJP 3
10 Jammu & K
BJP 1
11 Jharkhand
BJP 15
12 Karnataka
BJP 15
13 Kerala
BJP 0
14 Madhya Pradesh
BJP 25
15 Maharashtra
BJP+SS 21
16 Manipur
BJP 0
17 Meghalaya
BJP 0
18 Mizoram
BJP 0
19 Nagaland
BJP 0
20 Orissa
BJP 3
21 Punjab
BJP+SAD 9
22 Rajasthan
BJP 20
23 Sikkim
BJP 0
24 Tamil Nadu
BJP 0
25 Tripura
BJP 0
26 Uttar Pradesh
BJP 25
27 Uttarakhand
BJP 3
28 West Bengal
BJP 2
29 A&Nicobar
BJP 1
30 Chandigarh
BJP 1
31 Dadra&NH
BJP 1
32 Daman&Diu
BJP 1
33 Delhi
BJP 5
34 Lakshadeep
BJP 0
35 Puducherry
BJP 0

BJP+SS+SAD = 209

If NDA gets this number I think AIADMK(25) + BJD(12) + TMC(15) + Rest fill by independents can put Modi in charge of India by 2014.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 17 Jun 2013 15:47

B Raman who passed away yesterday after a long struggle with cancer, seemed to vaccilate a bit regarding the NaMo phenomenon in his final months. The negative tweets seem to be more directed at NaMo supporters who he felt were too aggressive on Twitter - than towards NaMo himself.

Perhaps realizing that he was nearing his end, his final testament tweeted to his followers regarding NaMo were the following:

May 19- My message to those who read me: Back NaMo for PM. He may not come up to expectations, but he will be refreshingly different

May 21- I decided to back NaMo becoz he is only leader with the required lucidity in thinking, razor-sharp focus on issues & ability to prioritise

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 17 Jun 2013 15:51

Gus avargale just think that in 2025 they will probably be pining for NaMo if all goes well!

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Jun 2013 15:53

Plus hopefully Amma another 35 at least. 240 - 32 short of 272 - BJP needs huge effort in UP to increase their mumbers. They may not win 15 in Karnataka and and 15 is way too much in Jarkhand - Babulal Marandi is to be brought in there. KA not withoutYaddi. NaMo may try to bring Yaddi in to BJP or at least NDA fold.

Instead of asking NK type fellows, BJPs should try to bring back the old BJP people who were with the party for deceades and left for one reason or another.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 17 Jun 2013 16:04

jj may get 35 plus. no major complaints and dmk stands exposed both in scams and ltte issue. money talks but cadre enthusiasm also matters and it is quite low for dmk. hence the regular feelers to vijaykant's DMDK and ramadoss's PMK from old man.

power situation has to be solved and that will be a major seller for admk. but the KKNPP is STILL not online and Cho has cast aspersions that dmk is making the centre drag its feed on this. far fetched but still plausible. we are in the dark, pun intended.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jun 2013 16:13

will be hard work, but namo might be able to broker a truce between yeddi and the KA BJP, get his party as NDA constituent and implement seat sharing between Yeddi and BJP to avoid vote splitting. now that D4 are kind of defanged the biggest yeddi baiters have lost their bite.

KA is a big state, dont lose it cheaply just because D4 goofed up and didnt back the man.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 17 Jun 2013 16:14

Reading this forum. Some times I fear that we are pinning all our hopes on one man. One man who has nearly no opportunity and time to formalize his ideals or to even test them in the great marketplace of Ideas. That is, the national elections.

What happens, if, this man is removed from the scene. Is their a second string who may have the same ideals, same drive. Or will the wave be dissipated long before it reaches the shore.

Unlike most of the NaMo fans I think a removal of the man will result in a dissipation of the wave rather then a win for the BJP. Some may see this removal as an act of god, or karma paying him back.

The other thing that I see is that after initial attempts at an == between the dynasty and NaMo, on this thread, such attempts have now totally stopped.

We still need to look at the Dynasty and what it is capable of doing. Rather then focus all our attention on Modi. As Dynasty flying under the radar could still cause major havoc, within the ranks of Modi supporters.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Jun 2013 16:16

and one thing about Dynasty, is they always have a next gen ready to take over should the current gen fall. we are into the 4th gen of dynasty now and look how strong and unshakeable they are in faith that only THEY are destined to rule this land. the 5th gen is also growing up, always "willing to serve the nation"

if namo falls the bjp wont last, I dont see a strong second line .... only opportunists, local satraps and d4 types...nobody to cement them and mold them into a fighting team LKA did play that role during the babri masjid and its aftermath as BJP steadily gained ground.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 17 Jun 2013 16:20

Just a word of caution on the extent to which msm can lie. IE today reported that suresh soni would be removed from a key position in rss to placate advani. Ram Madhav rss spokesperson wrote on twitter that it is false and the news is a plant

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 17 Jun 2013 16:24

A rationalized seat by seat analysis will give us realistic estimates. All estimates here are too optimistic. ( These are music to my ears, though.)

I think it is too early to even guesstimate. Once every party goes in poll mode, circumstances will change. I am afraid that namo is being forced early start and he might peak out early. Getting the karyakarts ready is one thing and getting people is different. It is the latter part where I am worried about. In politics weeks , leave aside months, are too long a time for fluid dynamics.

I am also of the opinion that fighting poll station by poll station call is valid one and probably the winning strategy.