ON THE ROAD TO DELHI
- Modi will be a central concern of the 2014 polls
Swapan Dasgupt
The BJP evolved from a very different political tradition — one where there was always a final authority. But the BJP too has grown exponentially in the past two decades. There is a crucial difference between today’s BJP and the Bharatiya Jana Sangh which operated as an extension counter of a Nagpur-based parent organization. It would be fair to say that Nagpur still retains its status as a majority shareholder but since the party exists both as a ‘sangathan’ and an election machine, it cannot afford to be unmindful of what potential BJP voters think and feel.
In the case of Modi, there was, at least until 2010-11, a very delicate relationship between him and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Although he was a rare case of a full-time pracharak who was parachuted into the chief minister’s chair, the
Gujarat chief minister was always seen in Nagpur as too individualistic, too argumentative and too much his own man.
In normal circumstances, this would have resulted in the creation of a glass ceiling but, as recent events suggest, the RSS has been unwavering in its support for him. Two factors explain the shift. First, Modi has mellowed and is no longer as prickly when confronted with gratuitous advice on statecraft. Secondly, Modi’s enhanced level of comfort has everything to do with an awareness that he enjoys mass support.
It is unthinkable to compare Modi with Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Temperamentally, they are different souls.
Vajpayee revelled in Brahmanical ambiguity; Modi, on the other hand, is less inclined to moral relativism. But in their dealings with the RSS both have showed a similarity of approach: both have not hesitated to say ‘No’ when the situation so demanded. That is because both had the reassurance of popular backing. More important, both knew when to not carry a disagreement to extremes and when to retreat. At the end of the day, both had a fierce sense of corporate loyalty.
The comparisons don’t end here.
Both Vajpayee and Modi evolved as they gained political experience. Vajpayee became leader of the Jana Sangh and the BJP at a time when Hindu nationalism was still a fringe phenomenon. Vajpayee realized, particularly after the Janata Party experience of 1977-79, that the BJP would have to make anti-Congressism its main plank and reach out to other parties on that basis. After the 13-day government of 1996, he shrewdly calculated (as did Advani) that to cross the last few hurdles, the party had to be a voice of reassurance to Indians troubled by the two disastrous United Front governments. This necessitated blunting the sharp edges of the BJP’s distinctive features: abolition of Article 370, enactment of a uniform civil code and the immediate construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Significantly, there was one feature of the BJP’s distinctiveness that Vajpayee didn’t abandon: making India a nuclear-weapons State.
Modi’s experience has been different.
He was thrown into the deep end of politics by the vicious communal riots of 2002 where his administrative inexperience showed. He could have travelled down the road of communal polarization but, instead, he transformed it into an issue of Gujarati pride. Following his victory in 2002, he further modified regional ‘asmita’ and made it coterminous with rapid economic development. Today, that logic is being sought to be extended to the whole of India.
Vajpayee, it is rightly said, had a soft touch; Modi, on the other hand, can often be very cutting, even abrasive. Both approaches have a merit but their political impact can only be judged within a context. Vajpayee was the quintessential consensus man who pushed through an economic agenda without too much fanfare. The India Modi operates in is different and one where he detects two clear signs of anger. First, an anger with the Congress for a wasted decade; and, second, the anger of a very youthful population who resent the mismatch between aspiration and opportunities.
The India of 1998 was a troubled India and Vajpayee sought to reassure it by being the voice of wisdom and comfort. The India of 2013 is an India that resonates with anger.
There is a constituency that is clamouring for a no-nonsense approach to politics and demanding an end to the ‘old politics’. As of now, Modi hasn’t set out the contours of his ‘new’ politics but the events of the past fortnight have clearly positioned him as the man who makes the fuddy-duddies squirm in fear.
The next general election will not be a single-issue one: no Indian election ever is. However, thanks to his opponents, Modi has become one of the central concerns of the day in a way that Indira Gandhi was in 1971, 1977 and 1980.
Modi may or may not become India’s next prime minister but he has ensured that his opponents can only prevail through a variant of the Duckworth-Lewis rules.
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